In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- [Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)
- [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich
- MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade
- [Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn
- MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade
- MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 5.8% Turnover; US$850m Trade
- Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC’s Offer. Clean Deal.
- Mandom (4917 JP): When You Thought It Was Done, KKR Emerges as a Competing Bidder
- [Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.
[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)
- Raksul Inc (4384 JP) is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs.
- They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.
- The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.
[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich
- Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s Partial Offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) discussed in [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share is trading rich.
- The Conclusions/Trade section was clear on the near-term risks. There was good short-term upside. There may be less with the stock trading 0.5% away from the tender price.
- With the stock trading so close, it changes the calculus, in both directions.
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade
- Almonty Industries (AII CN), Standard Lithium (SLI US) and Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in December.
- The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.
- There have been large creations in VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.
[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn
- Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.
- The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more.
- The Nikkei reports today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade
- There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
- The largest flows will be in NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel Corp, Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR.
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 5.8% Turnover; US$850m Trade
- BigBear.ai Holdings, NextVision Stabilized Systems, Ondas Holdings Inc and Planet Labs will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 December.
- The 4 adds, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$846m.
- The adds have all run up over the last year and the passive buying could give the stocks another leg up in the short-term.
Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC’s Offer. Clean Deal.
- Back on the 9th October, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced an Offer from controlling parent, HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme.
- HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically – and fundamentally – the price was bang on.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026. Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded “fair & reasonable”.
Mandom (4917 JP): When You Thought It Was Done, KKR Emerges as a Competing Bidder
- Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that it has received a non-binding letter of intent from a third-party candidate, with purchase prices exceeding the CVC JPY2,520 offer.
- The Nikkei identifies the bidder as KKR and states that the offer is over JPY2,800, a 11.1% premium to the CVC offer. KKR want a Board-recommended offer.
- CVC has extended the close of its offer to 5 January 2026, but will need to revise terms as its irrevocables (particularly Murakami and Hibiki) can switch to KKR.
[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693
- Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP). At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.
- There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they’ll offset that.
- This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.
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