In today’s briefing:
- Tesla’s China Syndrome Will Spread
- NDX Trendline Is the Risk Inflection that Would Change Course
- Dow Jones – The Spooky Chart
- Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers and Losers
- These Dealmakers will Make or Break SPACs in 2022
- The Nightcap from SPAC Track
- Tesla Cybertruck Delay Confirmed to Mid-2023—at Least.
Tesla’s China Syndrome Will Spread
- Tesla sold more cars in China in Q4 2021 than anywhere in the world.
- Model Y ramp-up continues, until it doesn’t, while Model 3 struggles even harder to keep up.
- Also true: Tesla is still losing market share in China—and every other key market.
NDX Trendline Is the Risk Inflection that Would Change Course
- NDX is dangerously close to a meaningful break below macro trendline and price support that would induce downside pressure on supports in other key indices.
- NDX Pivot support break would set in motion a downward spiral in the DJI and SPX as well as the global risk cycle. On alert!
- Late January a weaker cycle for a washout that sets up a tender bullish February grind with Q1 topping signals maturing.
Dow Jones – The Spooky Chart
- This chart draws a fascinating historical comparison between the behaviour of the stock market today with that seen 100 years ago around the time of the Spanish Influenza
- It clearly shows that what we are seeing today has some sort of reflection of the past
- The picture should be taken as a warning sign that the weeks and possibly the months ahead are going to be difficult for the equity market.
Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers and Losers
US equity markets ended lower with the S&P and Nasdaq down 1.4% and 2.5% respectively. Most sectors were in the red led by IT and Consumer Discretionary down 2.7% and 2.1%. US 10Y Treasury yields were up 1bp to 1.75%. European markets were mixed with the DAX and FTSE up 0.1% and 0.2% while CAC was down 0.5% respectively. Brazil’s Bovespa was down 0.2%. In the Middle East, UAE’s ADX was up 0.7% and Saudi TASI was up 1%. Asian markets have opened broadly lower following losses on Wall Street – Shanghai, HSI and Nikkei were down 0.7%, 0.9% and 1.9% while STI was up 0.4%. US IG CDS spreads were 1.2bp wider and HY CDS spreads also tightened 1.5bp. EU Main CDS spreads were 0.1bp wider and Crossover CDS spreads were 1.9bp tighter. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads widened 2.2bp.
These Dealmakers will Make or Break SPACs in 2022
- While a majority of SPAC dealmakers have faced issues such as raising adequate financing for deals or acquiring high-quality merger targets, Serial SPAC Sponsors appear to have emerged relatively unscathed.
- Serial Sponsors such as Gores, Palihapitiya, Cohen and Klein delivered the biggest deals of the industry
- With 2022 being billed as the year of consolidation in SPACs, these sponsors have the potential to make or break the industry.
The Nightcap from SPAC Track
- SilverBox Engaged Merger Corp I (SBEA) & Black Rifle Coffee Company
- ECP Environmental Growth Opportunities Corp. (ENNV) & Fast Radius
- Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corporation II (DCRN +8.37%) completed its merger Tritium
Tesla Cybertruck Delay Confirmed to Mid-2023—at Least.
- Reuters confirmed the latest delay until mid-2023 for Cybertruck’s rollout.
- This is the latest in a string of pushed targets—won’t likely be the last.
- I suspect exciting new competition from more credible truck-makers may have chased Tesla back to the drawing board.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
