Consumer Archives | Page 67 of 122 | Smartkarma

• Inflation, having peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, has been on a downward trend throughout the year, with figures dropping to 2.8% in November and further to 2.6% by December.
• In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult Honsha (2267 JP), Nissin, and Seven & I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.
• While Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) showcased excellent performance, Yakult and Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) faced struggles in their recent quarters.

• Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenue of 37% YoY Q3 2024, with profits up 37% YoY (  lower than our 50% YoY estimate). 9M FY23 revenue/profits were up 43%/43% YoY. 
• We look forward to the mainboard listing. We believe the process will commence when FY24 results are out in June. 
• The stock trades at 5.8x PE FY24e, with a potential dividend yield of 8.5% and cash around 26% of its market capitalization at 147.7 mn HKD.

• The slowdown in the house market in the UK in the last 12 months has increased the likelihood of seeing more consolidation in the house-building sector.
• Redrow’s 24,565 plots have attracted a large buyer paying (with paper) a hefty premium to secure land. The land bank should cover house building production for just over four years. 
• I believe the deal will ultimately succeed, although the CMA may take a closer look thus delaying the deal beyond H2 2024. Gross spread is 3.4%.

• In the weeks since our last update on GTX, there have been several quarterly reports suggesting a cooling in inventory purchases.
• We are reducing our 2024 estimates to better align expectations with the reality of how companies related to the auto industry have been reporting.  
• In the year ahead, GTX should benefit from a higher Euro to US Dollar exchange rate and the auto industry depending less on electric vehicles and more on hybrid.

• There are 167 companies of 1,784 companies in Metrical Universe (12/2023) with major shareholders holding over 50% stake, and 605 companies with major shareholders holding between 20% and 50% stake.
• TSE has requests listed parent companies, listed subsidiaries, and affiliates to disclose the significance of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings. This will further increase pressure for the dissolution of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings.
• Hitachi’s transformation into value-creating company, which once spawned numerous listed subsidiaries, has been a success story since it began full-fledged “selection and concentration” process through the dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings.

• Today, after Hong Kong market close, the Ministry of Education issued a new draft regulation on K12 tutoring. 
• I have written before on New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US) and China Beststudy that there is now a equilibrium reached between all parties on tutoring in China. 
• The new draft regulation basically puts it into concrete policy, which should alleviate investor concern on the sector. 

• British American Tobacco (BATS LN) owns 29.03% of ITC Ltd (ITC IN) and could sell a portion of its stake. But BAT will hold at least 25% of the company.
• British American Tobacco (BATS LN) paring its stake could also lead to SUUTI gradually reducing its own holding in the company.
• Any stake sales would not result in buying from global passive trackers while there will be small buying from local index trackers. Increased float could pressure the stock.

• We expect Meituan continue under pressure in the medium term due to the intensified competition with Douyin, and Meituan’s low price defending strategy in both food delivery and IHT businesses.
• Our non-IFRS net profit is roughly in-line with consensus in 4Q23 but 20%/25% lower than consensus in 2024/25.
• We downgrade the stock to SELL rating and cut TP to HK$57/share.

• Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead over DIS.
• But the stage is set for DIS to start accelerating faster than NFLX.
• This is how I would describe the US Media sector today, and Disney’s Q1 results released yesterday only serves to bolster that narrative.

• The Whirlpool Corporation released its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings and reported progressive achievements, including gaining over 1% market share in North America, reducing its net costs by $800M, and signing significant transactions with Arçelik.
• However, the Whirlpool Corporation did acknowledge areas where it didn’t meet expectations, specifically citing increased promotional pressure which negatively impacted EBIT margins, and a failure to reduce inventories quickly, weighing on the full cash flow.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Starbucks Corporation on its First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 earnings call provided a detailed account of the firm’s financial performance and future projections, endorsing its growth strategy despite short-term challenges.
• Positively, the company managed to increase its Q1 total company revenue by 8% year-over-year to a record $9.4 billion.
• Further, the firm’s global comparable store sales witnessed a growth of 5% year-over-year, backed by a 5% comp growth in North America and a 10% comp growth in China.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Wynn Macau Ltd

Intralot Integrated Lottery Systems and Services (Intralot) is a leading developer and supplier of integrated gaming systems and services that cover the entire value chain of select gaming markets. Its core global markets are forecast to produce steady growth, which is likely to be further boosted by new revenue opportunities as adjacent markets regulate and/or open up. The industry enjoys high barriers to entry and the long-term nature of client relationships provides attractive financial dynamics such as high revenue visibility and levels of profitability. Management believes the company’s competitive advantages of superior technology and service will provide many opportunities to outpace market growth in the next few years, which will further drive profitability, cash generation and returns. We believe these are not reflected in the current valuation.

• Mondelez International closed out 2023 on a strong note, according to their fourth quarter and year end earnings call.
• Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put pointed to robust top-line growth, record profit dollar growth, strong free cash flow, and solid returns to shareholders as key indicators of this success.
• More specifically, their organic net revenue grew 14.7% or $4.6 billion from the prior year.

• Sysco’s performance for the quarter was strong, given their position as a market leader in a growth industry where size and scale matter.
• The company demonstrated this position by delivering double digit earnings per share growth, realized from volume growth, margin management, and expense control.
• Due to this positive momentum from H1, Sysco expects to expand in H2, maintaining their full year growth expectations for both sales and EPS, including an adjusted EPS growth of 7% at the midpoint of their guidance range.

• We can use KRX to access PER, PBR, and dividend yield. However, except for PER, the data, being based on the most recent information, limits its usefulness for proactive positions.
• So, we should look into FnGuide, which aggregates and provides exclusive consensus data. This website also requires payment for access.
• However, FnGuide provides some data for free, including PBR. Therefore, we can make use of this within the scope of its free offerings.

• Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.
• We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.
• We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.

• One of the biggest news facing KT&G this year as been a class action lawsuit against KT&G’s directors by Flashlight Capital Partners.
• KT&G announced that it will cancel 3.5 million shares (about 315 billion won) on 16 February, which represent 2.6% of its outstanding shares and 16.7% of treasury shares.
• One of the major reasons why we remain positive on KT&G is that there is a relatively high probability of the company announcing cigarette price hikes in 2H 2024.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Sands China
• Tata Motors ADR
• UPL Ltd

• L’Oreal SA (OR FP) is the largest beauty company in the world, with a 15% global market share.  The second place in contrast has only around 5% market share. 
• The company has been excellently managed, and out-performed the overall global beauty industry growth by an average of 5% over the last 3 years.  However, growth could be slowing down.
• L’Oreal is now trading at 34x forward PE, which is a near 100% premium over the average of European consumer staples, and near a multi-decade high. 

• Not so long ago, Disney’s share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic’s severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.
• Fast forward to the present, and even with the parks posting record results, Disney’s share price has fallen to levels not seen in a decade, raising the question: what happened?
• Several factors are at play, including challenges within the studio arm, ongoing decline of its legacy media operations, and Big Tech’s incursion into sports media.

• Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.
• The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.
• Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption. 

• While many companies have disclosed enhanced shareholder returns, dividend payout ratio in 30% range and no increase, and 4% increase in total dividends from the previous year, is not enough.
• Since DOE remains at just under 3% same as the previous year, few companies allocate enough cash to dividend to reduce Shareholder’s Equity, and consequently ROE is expected to lower.
• Cash on hand in September is at all-time high. Behind the ROE, which shows no sign of rising, is the psychology of managers who want to keep cash on hand.

Key points (machine generated)

• GAN Limited has agreed to be acquired by Sega Sammy for $1.97 per share in cash.
• A law firm is investigating the fairness of the sale, causing a temporary decline in GAN’s stock.
• The writer predicts a 21.6% gain in GAN’s stock by Q4 2024, with insiders and Goldman Sachs holding significant ownership stakes, and expects arbitrageurs to support the deal, closing the gap caused by the investigation.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Comcast Corporation presented its financial position strongly in the fourth-quarter conference call, posting the highest ever revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS for the third consecutive year.
• The company emphasized its robust cash flow and solid balance sheet, which have facilitated organic investments and significant share repurchases, offering impressive capital return.
• It showcased the gains made in the connectivity businesses, with a 24% increase in Xfinity Mobile subscriber lines and 20% upsurge in total domestic wireless revenue, thereby demonstrating its resilience despite an intensely competitive environment.

• Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying KDDI Corp (9433 JP) would take over Lawson Inc (2651 JP). The stock immediately headed to limit up. 
• Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.
• This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.

• Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
• The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
• Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 

• Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
• Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
• If Elliott’s campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.

• Bloomberg reports that L’Occitane (973 HK) draws takeover interest from Blackstone (BX US), which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.
• Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).
• Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

• Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
• The long thesis is simple – I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
• Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L’Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.

• Water Oasis (1161 HK) just went ex-dividend on 6th Feb and is now trading at a 7.5x PE FY24e and a 10.7% dividend yield on trailing FY23 earnings.  
• The company has refurbished its flagship stores, and we believe it can perform 8-9% better year over year for FY24 than FY23.
• The company also has 230 mn HKD net cash (after netting dividends paid out), representing     26% of market capitalization.

• There could be one change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 March.
• Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 12.6% and in a one-way trade of INR 3.7bn.
• While the deletion is fairly certain, there are a few non-constituents around the same level of volatility and price movements over the next few weeks will determine the inclusion.

• From 2018 onward, French beauty retailer L’Occitane (973 HK) has apparently drawn interest from the likes of Advent International and its controlling shareholder Chairman Reinold Geiger – amongst others. 
• There is substance to these “Offers” – Geiger confirmed in August 2023 he was contemplating a conditional voluntary general Offer. He holds 72.65% of shares out according to the HKEx. 
• The latest news, with no definitive source, is that Blackstone is mulling the possibility of teaming up with Geiger on a buyout.

• KDDI’s agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.
• There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI’s offer suggests.
• And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.

• Kayou (000KAYOU CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan.
• Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product. 
• As of 9M23 (30th Sep 23), it had an IP matrix of 44 IPs through licensing from IP partners and the development of proprietary IPs. 

• Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) on Friday announced Q3 results, a huge hike in H2 dividend (from ¥12/share guided to ¥20/share newly guided), and a buyback. 
• 9mo Revenues were up 9.4%yoy (after +16.7% the previous year), OP +66.7%, and Net Profits +59.0%yoy through three quarters. Full-year Revenues, OP, and NP were all revised up slightly.
• The buyback is for up to 11mm shares, spending up to ¥15bn over the next 8 weeks. Looking at details of the shareholder structure is worthwhile.

• BYD released its result estimate for 2023, in which net profit rose by 74% to 86% over 2022.
• Li auto delivered 31,165 vehicles in January 2024, up by 106% over 2023.
• As per rumors reported in the media, Alibaba will sell RT-Mart, a supermarket brand.

• Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)/YSK has recommended Inaba’s tender offer of JPY1,350 per share, an 18.7% premium to J-STAR’s failed offer and a 9.8% premium to the last close. 
• J-STAR’s offer failed as shares consistently traded above terms due to Murakami and 3D Investment Partners emerging as substantial shareholders. J-STAR extended the close but did not bump its offer.
• While Inaba’s offer values YSK below book value, Murakami is now supportive. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 57.2% minority acceptance rate.

• Metcash Ltd (MTS AU) is looking to raise up to A$300m (US$195m) in its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to partially fund the acquisition of three businesses.
• The deal would be a large one to digest at 22.5 days of three month ADV and 8.4% dilution. 
• In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors. 
• Sino Wealth, a Cheng family’s vehicle with 24.06% of shares, has requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus appoint three other NEDs/INEDs.
• If this were to come to pass, the family would have (almost) effective control of the board. The vote will be close. And David Webb is now below 5%. 

• Tesla Inc.’s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the company’s Q4 2023 earnings call transcript.
• As well, in Q4, it was manufacturing vehicles at nearly 2 million cars per year, a remarkable achievement.
• Tesla’s Fremont factory alone produced 560,000 cars, solidifying its status as the highest production automotive plant in North America.

• Kimberly-Clark’s recent earnings for its fourth quarter and full year 2023 results showed both steady growth and challenges.
• They are focused on elevating categories and expanding markets for growth, a strategy which is showing promising results.
• The earnings call highlighted that the company had faced supply constraints that affected its market share.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target for Starco Brands after the company announced basically inline preliminary 2023 results and provided initial 2024 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA which bracketed our projection; as such, we are tweaking higher both our 2023 and 2034 Adjusted EBITDA projections.
• We believe Starco is ideally positioned to register material top and bottom line growth in 2024 (and beyond) and believe management has remained conservative on multiple levels in their guidance.
• We continue to view Starco as ideally positioned to lever their unique characteristics in the packaged goods space to drive consistent top and bottom line growth, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $0.25 price target for STCB.

• Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel (PARK IN) (ASPH) plans to raise up to US$111m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its India IPO.
• ASPH ranks as the eighth largest in India in terms of chain affiliated hotel rooms inventory as of Sep 2023, as per Horwath HTL Report.
• In this note, we talk about the past performance and our thoughts on valuations.

• In addition to the large number of micro-caps among companies listed on the Growth Market, another problem is the lack of growth in market capitalization after IPOs. 
• Many managers consider IPO to be the goal, and this is evidenced by the fact that not many companies raise capital at IPO and after listing.
• The government proposed raising the market capitalization criteria for IPOs and revitalizing the secondary market for pre-listed companies. TSE is likely to review its listing criteria as early as 2025.

• Share price of Meituan has fallen by 25% since we flagged the name as high-conviction sell for 2024 last December, due in large to its weakening fundamental and earnings cut.
• We believe its competitive positioning in food delivery remains rock solid and estimates Meituan will likely command over 2/3 market share in in-store business, at the expense of margin.
• The company trades at 12x/8.6x 2024/25 consensus earnings. Current valuation already priced in rather bearish outlook amidst macro concerns and intensified competition in our view. We see value emerging.

• By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels
• Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels
• In this month’s edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND flows were net negative and NORTHBOUND flows a decent buy. AH premia on average fell, but liquid pairs saw AH premia rise. Chinese/HK shares shellacked.
• Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn’t be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 9.9bn of A-shares on very strong average activity after +12.1bn RMB the week before. Some National Team buying this week. 
• Renewables selling was tempered. Energy and Finance saw net selling. Industry and Tech saw large net buying. Relatively larger net Shenzhen buying later in the week as stocks fell hard.

• Netflix, in their recent Q4 2023 earnings call, highlighted key developments that signal both progress and future challenges for the company.
• The firm elaborated on its partnership with WWE, where Netflix airs live WWE events.
• As per co-CEO Theodore Sarandos, fans of WWE have lauded this move, many of whom Netflix assumes were underserved previously.

• Since the introduction of the Corporate Governance Code, the hurdle for listed companies to fulfill their responsibilities has become higher, which is why more managers are choosing to go private.
• While some of companies with large market capitalizations that overseas investor engagement extends to are showing promise for change, many others are failing to step up management to create value.
• TOPIX’s rise has been mainly driven by an increase in the number of companies rather than an increase in stock prices. The market should become higher in quality through de-listing.

• Singapore-based agritech startup DayaTani has raised US$2.3 million in a seed funding round led by Ascent Venture Group with participation from KBI Investment, MDI Ventures, Northstar Ventures, BRI Ventures, and Gentree Fund.
• Founded in 2023, DayaTani works to enhance yields for Indonesian farmers, operating research and development sites across the Java island that focus on horticulture and grain crops.
• The company is developing hardware and software including data science models for more accurate recommendations, such as what fertilizer to use, based on real-world conditions.

• Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
• On the IPO front, Amer Sports (AS US) was priced below its range, while Thai Credit Bank PCL, managed to get enough support to pull thru. 
• Given the earnings season, there weren’t many placement apart from Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN) and Metals Acquisition (MTAL US)‘s CDR offering. 

• This is our first report on D.R. Horton, one of America’s largest homebuilders.
• The company reported solid first quarter results for the fiscal year 2024.
• The company highlighted a promising increase of net sales orders by 35% from the previous year’s quarter.

• Based on the information shared during the recent earnings, Procter & Gamble has demonstrated solid performance, accomplishing significant organic sales growth and market share results despite a challenging operating environment.
• A diverse portfolio, combined with strong steps in innovation and sustainability, positions the company for continued success.
• Notably, Procter & Gamble reported a strong quarter with 4% growth in organic sales and a 16% increase in core earnings per share.

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) continued its stellar quarterlies, showing no signs of a slowdown, with Q4 2023 revenue/profits increasing 11.3%/34% YoY.
• FY24 will see the newly launched Purosangue become 20% of the product mix, and personalization trends continue with a mid-single-digit price hike. Ferrari Lifestyle brand will continue strong growth.
• Trading at 48x/41x FY24e/25e, the stock seems expensive, but growth at a >25% ROCE seems highly probable in the not-to-distant future.

• Due to a reallocation of resources, we are terminating coverage of Regis Corporation (RGS).
• Our previous rating, price target and estimates for Regis Corporation (RGS) should no longer be relied upon.
• Historical disclosures will be provided upon request.

• Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
• We assess Merlin Entertainments’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Weak”.
• Merlin Entertainments is a global leader in the branded, location-based entertainment business.

• CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2024 results yesterday. Revenue increased 15.2% YoY with OP increasing 12.4% QoQ, and beat consensus estimates by a huge margin.
• All three business segments have shown strong improvement, with newly released gaming title  “Jujutsu Kaisen Phantom Parade” driving growth for Games business.
• CyberAgent’s (CA’s) share price moved up by about 4% following earnings announcement and seems that the worst is over for the company.

• GoTo (GOTO IJ) has legally completed the transaction to sell 75% of Tokopedia to TikTok, paving the way for higher growth and improving profitability, without the need to subsidise growth. 
• The company will continue to benefit from the new Tokopedia’s core GMV growth without having to provide funding, with the benefit of a larger total addressable market. 
• GoTo has achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 4Q2023 beating expectations but financials should improve further in 2024 although resources will be focused on growing on-demand services, and especially food delivery.

Rakuten Group has launched a USD 1.8 bn 144A/RegS three-year notes offering with a coupon of 11.25% at 97.83, yielding 12.125%. The deal was upsized from USD 1.0 bn. Proceeds from the transaction will be used to fund a concurrent tender offer for the company’s two USD 2024 bonds.

The tender offer is for the 10.25% 2024s (USD 950 mn outstanding) and 3.546% 2024s (USD 800 mn). The tender cap is set at the size of the notes offering, which would be enough to buy back all the outstanding 2024 bonds. The tender consideration is USD 1,006.76 per USD 1,000 principal for the 10.25% ’24s, and USD 956.75 for the 3.546% ’24s. The early tender consideration is USD 30 per USD 1,000 principal.

• Soybean continues to face bearish outlook with supply surplus and lagging demand.
• Soybean price reached a 2-year low this month, with some using the bargain prices as a buying opportunity.
• US exports lag but recent uptick in large export sales suggests the availability of buyers at these prices.

• The fact that only 7% of companies disclosed their cost of capital disappoints investors who had hoped that the “TSE request” would change management’s mindset to become more share-price conscious.
• The average ROE of listed companies declined slightly. This indicates that they haven’t been able to find effective investments to raise business profitability and that shareholder returns have been inadequate.
• The ROE trend does not indicate a significant change in management’s mindset, so this will be a major issue if the stock price moves lower to the June AGM season.

• India’s beauty and personal care market is expected to hit US$30 billion by 2027. While the segment as a whole is thriving, beauty ecommerce penetration in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities suffers from long delivery periods as well as issues with product authenticity and quality.
• BuyEazzy, a beauty ecommerce platform, aims to solve this by leveraging the trust between neighborhood store owners and consumers.
• The startup has raised over US$4.2 million in a series A round led by Info Edge Ventures, with participation from existing investors Incubate Fund Asia and M Venture Partners.

• Motorist Motorist, a Singapore-based automotive tech firm, has raised a strategic investment from Tokyo Century Leasing (Singapore), a subsidiary of the Japanese auto financing group.
• The startup did not disclose the round’s size but said that it was raised at a US$60 million valuation.
• Founded in 2015, Motorist facilitates vehicle-related transactions, including car valuations, second-hand car listings, and applications for loans and insurance.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Alam Sutera Realty
• Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
• Vista Land & Lifescapes
• Wynn Macau Ltd

• The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
• Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 1.3-19x ADV (7.1-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-47x ADV on the deletions.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JP) avoids capping in March, passives will buy Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), and 25 stocks have over 0.5x ADV to sell as part of the funding trade.

• L’Occitane (973 HK) announced a strong 3QFY24 operational update last night.  Share price is up 7% today and up 36% since interim results announcement late November last year.
• Sol de Janeiro, the Brazilian-inspired premium body care brand, continued to shine in the quarter, growing 199% at reported sales and 214% at constant currency. 
• Recommend to take advantage of the current weak sentiment on such companies trading on the HK stock exchange but are actually not reliant on China in terms of business fundamentals.

• Amer Sports (AS US) raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO, after pricing its IPO below its initial range, as per media reports.
• Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
• We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is a monopoly in the Philippines, with over 95% of the gin market. It has a 10 Revenue CAGR of 14%. 
• The company has experienced margin expansion due to premiumization and operating leverage on SG&A, the former of which is likely to continue in the future with new premium gin launches.
• There is value in the name trading at 7x PE, with >20% of the market cap in cash and a 7.3% dividend yield predicated on a 50% payout ratio. 

• Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) is back to the boil in terms of sales growth for both its dairy and carton tea businesses, which both benefit from a nominalisation of mobility. 
• The company’s margins have improved in the dairy business as cost pressure has abated with falling powdered milk prices. Competition has picked up but the overall market is growing sufficiently. 
• Ultrajaya Milk will open a new distribution centre in 1Q2024, which should help to drive growth plus it looks to launch new product categories in 2024. Valuations are attractive.

Key points (machine generated)

• Liverpool is a major player in the financial services industry in Mexico and offers credit cards.
• The company has a strong presence in retail, real estate, and financial sectors, focusing on expanding its reach and providing a diverse range of products and services.
• Liverpool has incorporated e-commerce and implemented a new logistics platform to strengthen their supply chain and accommodate more clients, showcasing their dedication to innovation and customer satisfaction.

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• This is our first report on e-commerce player, Global-e Online Ltd.
• The company delivered decent results for the third quarter of 2023, marked by significant growth in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) by 35% and an Adjusted EBITDA increase by 76%.
• A key determinant of this success was their improved profitability margins and comprehensive cost control measures, alongside strategic advancements across their operations.

WPP’s capital markets day (CMD) focused on the combination of creativity and AI at scale and how these can be leveraged to boost clients’ businesses. Outline Q423 performance figures were given, along with updated forward guidance, including on restructuring costs and potential payback. We expect market expectations to be broadly unchanged. The overarching narrative of consolidation and simplification, common data platforms and standardised reporting, is coherent and supports the projected margin expansion. To be really convincing, though, top-line growth needs to exceed the 3% indicated, which depends on better performances in both Media and Creative. The rating remains undemanding.

Smiths News’ trading update highlights the resilience of its business model in a tough macroeconomic environment, with FY24 results expected to be in line with consensus. As a reminder, our 2024e PBT forecast stands flat at £33.4m despite an anticipated 6% y-o-y decline in revenue to £1.0bn, attributable to management’s tight control of the business and the ongoing annual efficiencies being delivered. Smiths has renewed several long-term publisher contracts in the past year, which could imply visibility over c 74% of annual revenues to 2029, with potential for expansion. This should further bolster the company’s cash-generative business model and underpin the sustainability of the business in the long term.

• 2QFY24 (December) ongoing EPS was $0.10 versus ($0.07) in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $0.04 estimate.
• Ongoing EBITDA was $3.1MM in the quarter, well above the $0.8MM in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $2.5MM estimate.
• EBITDA margins of 6.0% exceeded our 4.6% estimate.