Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 16 of 222 | Smartkarma

• DFI Retail’s strategic shift from portfolio investor to focused operator has unlocked over US$900 million, with US$600 million returned to shareholders via a US¢44.3 per share special dividend announced yesterday.
• Underlying profit rose 39% in 1HFY2025, driven by lower financing costs and strong performance in the Health & Beauty segment.
• On its investor call, DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP) acknowledged sector headwinds and outlined plans for cost control, margin focus, and digital monetisation to offset weak revenue growth.

• KKR and JIC Capital launched a ¥348B (~$2.3B) MBO for Topcon (7732 JP) at ¥3,300/share, offering an ~88% premium.
• The deal implies ~78x FY25 P/E and ~37x FY26E P/E—pricing in Eye Care’s high-margin growth while Positioning remains a cyclical drag.
• Long term, Eye Care is well-positioned to scale globally as AI diagnostics and SaaS platforms unlock sustained double-digit growth.

• We expect JD.com to report C2Q25 revenue/adjusted operating profit growth of 16%/(63%) YoY, which is 2%/(50%) vs. cons. due to the takeout subsidies.
• Despite the surge in new users, we remain skeptical on the ST effectiveness of food delivery (FD) cross-selling. We expect 2025 FD losses at RMB29bn.
• We keep JD as SELL and cut TP from US$25 to US$24.

• China announced game approval for the July batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• In July, 7 listed companies that we tracked received zero domestic game approval. Having said that, overall sentiment is improving and gaming names have performed well YTD.

• Playboy, Inc. (Nasdaq: PLBY) is undergoing a transformation to an asset-light business model centered around its iconic brand, positioning the company for sustainable profitability
• The strategy is starting to yield tangible improvements in profitability, as evidenced by its return to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025.
• Playboy’s current valuation (2.7x EV/2025 sales) does not fully reflect its long-term earnings potential. As licensing continues to scale and margins expand, the company is poised for a meaningful re-rating.

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• We add Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our value conviction list. Read Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady And Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator 
• Our top picks are Asian Terminals (ATI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM). 

• Korea Fuel Tech (123410 KS) is the 41st company in our Korea Small Cap Gem Series. 
• Korea Fuel Tech (FT) Corp is a Korean automotive components manufacturer specializing in emissions control systems, fuel system parts, and other auto plastic parts.
• Three key investment highlights include key beneficiary of growing demand for carbon canisters used in hybrid vehicles, compelling valuations, and sharp increase in operating margins/ROE. 

• General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s second quarter of 2025 earnings report reflects a robust performance and a constructive outlook characterized by growth in revenue, profits, and operational efficiencies.
• The company continues to leverage its strong position within the aerospace industry, both in commercial and defense sectors, to sustain and enhance its performance metrics.
• In the reported quarter, GE Aerospace exhibited solid growth across several financial parameters.

• Suffering from overcapacity for a while, the company is a beneficiary of the Chinese government policy to consolidate the solar industry. 
• At 0.6x PBR and a share price at HKD 1.3, far from its high at HKD 4, sounds like a bargain. 
• Management has conducted one share buy back this year and share price rallied afterwards. 

• Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) delivered quarterly results that highlighted notable financial performance and forwardlooking business prospects, especially in the context of the growing international demand for natural gas.
• Positively, Kinder Morgan reported strong financial growth, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS increasing by 6% and 12% respectively compared to the second quarter of 2024.
• The company expects to exceed its budget for 2025, buoyed by the promising acquisition of Outrigger Energy.

• Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
• Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
• Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.

• TSMC’s Most Advanced Node — 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think
• OpenAI’s Sam Altman ‘Jokes’ About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day…
• AI PC Delay — Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026

• On July 20, 2025, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt (SONACOMS IN) announced a $20 million joint venture with China’s JNT to enter the world’s largest EV market.
• The move aims to capture growth in China’s dominant EV market, aligning with the company’s new strategy to expand into eastern markets
• An EV slowdown is expected in FY26 while the China JV and railway business, despite driving future growth from FY27 onwards, are expected to lower margins.

• Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) saw lowest degrowth in retail sales value(RSV) in Q1FY26 among last few quarters.
• Same-Store sales growth showed a clear sequential improvement across key regions. Mainland China self-operated stores saw the decline narrow sharply.
• Driven by store optimization and brand transformation, earnings quality should sustain. At 16.9x P/E valuation on FY26e EPS, we believe investors will increasingly view CTF as a long-term structural winner.

• Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Woolworths Group’s half-year financial performance for FY 2025 exhibits a mix of achievements and challenges, emphasizing the competitive and dynamic retail landscape.
• The company’s diverse portfolio, including Australian Food, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and other segments, reflected varied growth patterns influenced by external and internal factors.
• Starting with the positives, Woolworths Group achieved a 3.7% increase in group sales, reaching $35.9 billion, with eCommerce sales showcasing robust growth of 20%.

• Bold statement by Management: early stage of cyclical recovery, new upcycle beginning. 2Q result and 3Q guidance show a smaller pace of YoY decline, converging slowly to 0. 
• Other than an increasing order book, Management not forthcoming on details. In Automotive NXP has outperformed its peers during this latest downcycle with a smaller pace of decline.
• Stock valuations at 20x 2025 EPS, 16.8x 2026 EPS, which are almost +1 standard deviation above average PEx. No room for error here.

• WiseTech Global Limited, a developer of cloud-based software solutions for the international and domestic logistics industries, recently released its first half of 2025 financial results.
• The company reported revenue of $381 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an organic revenue growth rate of 15%.
• CargoWise, their flagship logistics platform, exhibited strong performance with organic revenue growth of 20% and recurring revenue contributing 99% of total CargoWise revenue.

• Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
• Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
• Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

• Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
• Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
• Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

• Alimentation Couche-Tard just withdrew their offer to buy Seven&i for $47.2bn, and within two days, Seven’s share price is down 12.5% and ACT’s is up 10.6%.
• Seven’s management deluded itself into thinking it could match ACT’s returns by selling off non-core assets. This is pure financial gimmickry, and the market sees right through it.
• Seven will never see a deal as good as the one ACT offered, and failing to capitalize on should be investigated as a potential crime against common sense.

• Noritake – Despite strong profits from semiconductor ceramics, lack of strategy for underperforming segments and idle assets invites activist pressure for structural reform. 
• Square Enix – New turnaround plan lacks clear KPIs and capital discipline, prompting activists to demand sharper execution and improved shareholder returns. 
• Eiken Chemical – Activists gained board influence through compromise, advancing governance reform and signaling momentum toward a potential buyout.

• In the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence, Meta has doubled down on voice-driven innovation by snapping up PlayAI, a nimble startup renowned for its natural-sounding speech synthesis and user-friendly voice-creation platform.
• With more than 3.4 billion daily users across its apps and nearly one billion monthly users of its Meta AI service, the company is eager to integrate PlayAI’s specialized talent directly into Meta Superintelligence Labs.
• This move arrives just after Meta rolled out Llama 4 models and launched its stand-alone Meta AI app, signaling an all-in push toward multimodal, conversational AI.

• Singapore’s yield superiority is not restricted to the REIT and Banking Sectors.
• There are 13 stocks (that are not REITs or Banks) that have been identified as high performing dividend stocks.
• These stocks trade more than US$3m ADT in the last six months and are outside the REIT and Banking sectors. 

• Korea surpassed France as the top exporter of cosmetics to the USA in 2024. Korea exported $1.7 billion worth of cosmetics to the USA in 2024, up 54.2% YoY.
• CJ Olive Young’s online cosmetic sales to overseas markets soared 70% YoY in 1H 2025, fueled largely by the explosive demand from the United States.
• We have raised our NAV valuation of CJ Corp to 207,713 won per share (up 28%). We raised the valuation of CJ Olive Young to 7 trillion won. 

• BHP Group Limited’s performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational challenges in its diverse portfolio.
• The first half results showcase several strengths and areas for further focus as the company navigates a complex global mining landscape.
• A key positive from BHP’s recent performance is the record output in its Western Australian iron ore operations, which achieved the lowest production costs globally.

• Anup Saha’s sudden resignation as MD of Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN), just three months into the role, raises succession planning concerns.
• The architect of BAF’s growth resumes full control as VC & MD until March 2028, ensuring near-term continuity.
• While operations remain stable, the event sharpens focus on long-term leadership depth in India’s most premium NBFC.

• Since inception on February 27, our equal-weighted Indian Mid-Cap basket has appreciated 29.4%, sharply outperforming the BSE Mid-Cap Index (18.6%). We revisit our basket and apply the relevant screens again. 
• We screen on minimum 10% EPS CAGR over next two years, maximum PEG of 1.3x, consensus rating of buy/overweight and upward revision in consensus EPS estimate over past 6 months.
• 14 stocks come up in our new India Mid-Caps basket – fewer than the 20 that we had earlier. Four stocks are common with the previous basket.

• Q4 FY25 delivered best operational quarter with 27% EBITDA margin and steady 80–85% utilization despite global steel demand weakness.
• Expanding graphite electrodes to 100 ktpa, commissioning 20 ktpa anode plant by FY27, and deepening exposure via GrafTech stake.
• Base case SOTP implies Rs614/share, valuing core at 8× EV/EBITDA and anode business at 2.5× invested capital.

• Sanli Environmental and mDR saw significant increases in average daily trading turnover, with returns of 98.9% and 137.5% respectively.
• Q&M Dental led net institutional inflows with S$7.68 million, alongside increased CEO ownership and active share buybacks.
• OKP Holdings secured a S$258 million contract, boosting its order book to S$736 million, with visibility to 2031.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

• Formosa Prosonic is a very cheap stock. Cash on its Balance Sheet is MYR 1.65 which is way higher than stock price.
• Operating business has been consistently profitable & generated very good ROE & is available for free. 
• Stock has been falling as Wistron the largest shareholder has decided to exit its holding as part of strategic overview which we think is a Buying opportunity

• Asian Terminals (ATI PM — US$941 million) is a Philippines-based port operator.
• It’s owned by Eusebio (“Yosi”) Tanco, recently famous for having hit a jackpot with online bingo operator DigiPlus and school operator STI Education.
• Asian Terminals has also done exceptionally well. It was set up in the 1980s and managed to acquire the Manila South Harbor port in the early 1990s.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Three Aussie pair trade opportunities across three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) rallied by 132% since our last Insight, fueled by the euphoria in the brokerage and securities sector on the HK government’s stablecoin initiative.
• At HK$16.44, it is at 100% PER premium to the sector average, ex-Guotai Junan International (1788 HK). The risk-reward payoff now looks less attractive.
• It also implies net profit to grow by 150% by FY31F and priced at 18x PER. This appears stretched in the near term, though long-term prospects stay decent. 

• Revenue peaked in FY23 but margins have declined due to cost pressures and impairments.
• The company is exiting underperforming assets and expanding in fine carbon, furnaces, and carbon black.
• At ¥1,010, it trades at ~19.6x FY25e P/E, in line with peers but below book at 0.8x P/B.

• Context: The Region (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The pair shows strong alignment in both statistical terms and fundamental metrics and factors.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Past Performance: Revenues stable; margins improved due to semiconductor growth, despite weak performance in legacy chemicals and graphite electrodes.
• Strategy & Shutdown: Shutting 30% electrode capacity; refocusing on high-margin semiconductor, SiC, and packaging materials with ¥330 bn capex planned by FY25.
• Valuation: Trades at 8x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/E FY25E; re-rating possible with higher margins and semiconductor mix.

• Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
• FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
• Valuation & Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (18 July to 1 August 2025).
• Our top 10 picks were up on average 4.5% in the past two weeks, slightly outperforming KOSPI which was up 4.4% in the same period.
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Hanil Cement, LG CNS, KCC Corp, Poongsan, Paradise, Samsung Electronics, Naver, SM Entertainment, LG Chem, and SK Inc. 

• The US-China decoupling is resulting in geo-political risks, causing structural changes to China’s manufacturing and logistics sector.  Companies re-locate their supply chains due to “China Plus One” strategy. 
• Despite E-commerce remains as a long-term strong driver for China logistics, the sector is facing severe over-supply in the near term.  National vacancy is 20.3% at Q1 2025
• We recommend SHORT MapleTree Logistics Trust, due to its significant exposure to China logistics.  DPU, NPI and ROE are on downward trend

• BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather
• The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market 
• We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore 

• TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
• Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
• Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds

• Samsonite (1910 HK), the world’s leading travel luggage manufacturer/retailer, is trading well below its historical metrics. 
• The share price is up ~30% from its recent low, but down ~22% YTD following a ~31% fall over a 10-day period in early-April, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech. 
• Management initiated a US$200mn buyback program last August. Overhangs include tariff and weak retail market in Asia and North America. Plus short selling has touched an all-time high.

• Cochlear Limited recently announced its half-year results for fiscal year 2025.
• In its earnings call, the company disclosed a mixed performance across its business segments.
• On the positive side, the company reported a strong 13% growth in Cochlear implant revenue and an even stronger 22% growth in Acoustics revenue, leading to an overall net sales increase of 6% in constant currency.

• James Hardie Industries Plc demonstrated a mixed performance in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, underpinned by its strategic growth initiatives amidst challenging market conditions.
• Despite facing a softer demand environment and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company managed to achieve its financial targets, indicative of its strategic agility and operational discipline.
• On the positive side, James Hardie’s focus on strategic investments and scaling the organization has borne fruit.

• TotalEnergies’ Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 17.2% QoQ and 19.4% YoY. Similarly, its EPS is projected to drop 8.7% QoQ and 15.7% YoY.
• TotalEnergies is expected to post its weakest quarterly revenue and EPS reading since Q1 2021, as falling crude and LNG prices overshadow gains in refining.
• With 80% of earnings tied to upstream and LNG, even strong production and steady downstream performance leave little room for upside.

• Agilent is a leading provider of instruments, services, and consumables for labs in the life sciences, diagnostics, applied chemical markets, and R&D sectors
• With a market cap of $30 billion, Agilent was born within Hewlett Packard and spun off more than 25 years ago
• Agilent has a total addressable market of $160 billion and has a history dating back to 1938, starting as a testing instrument for audio equipment used by Disney in the production of Fantasia

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Northern Star Resources Ltd’s March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some operational challenges.
• The company generated robust net mine cash flow of $295 million, with positive contributions from all production centers.
• The gold price, exceeding AUD 5,000 per ounce, aided this financial strength, alongside the company’s low-risk mining jurisdictions in Western Australia and Alaska.

• IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
• The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
• For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.

• • The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d.
• Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11.
• Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well.

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s recent financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reveal a balanced mix of robust growth and strategic challenges, providing a comprehensive overview of the company’s current performance and future outlook.
• On the positive front, the company reported operating revenue of $2.02 billion, marking a 16% increase from the previous year.
• This growth is primarily driven by broad-based expansion across its hospital consumables portfolio and significant contributions from the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) masks.

• NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
• This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
• At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.

• TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
• Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
• TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure

• 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
• Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
• Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.

• Geely announced that its deliveries grew by 42% YoY in June 2025.
• We expect BEV deliveries will continue to grow fast in 3Q25, but slow down from 4Q25.
• We believe the stock price will rise by 39% for the next twelve months.

• Square Enix holds globally recognized IP with monetization upside across platforms, and recent pipeline discipline signals a shift toward higher-margin, high-quality titles that can stabilize earnings and restore growth.
• Activist involvement is intensifying, creating strong pressure for capital returns, governance reform, and strategic clarity – unlocking shareholder value in a business that remains structurally underleveraged and undervalued vs peers.
• With operating margins improving, digital sales accelerating, and cost structures being realigned, Square Enix is positioned to re-rate meaningfully as investor confidence rebuilds and management delivers on core turnaround objectives.

• The tragic crash of Air India Flight 171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, on June 12, 2025, initially triggered global alarm over the safety of Boeing’s aircraft, evoking chilling memories of the 737 MAX debacle.
• However, a preliminary report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) appears to shift attention away from mechanical failure and toward pilot actions.
• According to the report, both fuel control switches were inexplicably moved from the “RUN” to the “CUTOFF” position seconds after takeoff—starving both engines of fuel.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Computershare presented a robust performance in its first-half FY ’25 results.
• The company reported Management Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.653, an 18.7% increase over the previous period, driven by strong business momentum despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate changes.
• The company’s management aims to build a simplified, high-quality, and capital-light business model, as evidenced by their recent divestment of the U.S. Mortgage Services business.

• We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
• Like in the case of Apollo Hospitals, Max Healthcare will have tough competition from both listed and unlisted players.
• A 65 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

• Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

• We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently. 
• Dream International (1126 HK) has returned >200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). 
•  “Never look a gift horse in the mouth” ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.

• Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH’s largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
• HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management – read deleveraging.
• The recent appointment of PAG’s Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That’s not unreasonable.

• Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. 
• We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).
• Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.

• Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
• China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
• While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.

• Adobe Inc.’s second quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a strong performance, marked by significant revenue growth and strategic advancements in its core business segments.
• The company’s total revenue reached $5.87 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a noteworthy contribution from its Digital Media sector, which achieved $4.35 billion in revenue.
• This sector’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase.

• As Kinatico transitions to a new compliance SaaS solution, the legacy business provides funding for the new service development and a pool of potential customers

• Jubilant Pharmova is investing over USD 285 million to expand its PET radiopharmacy sites, CDMO Sterile Injectables, and CRDMO capacity (FTEs from 1,000 to 4,000 by FY27). 
• These segments, contributing over 80% of FY25 EBITDA, are positioned for faster growth and margin expansion, with Line 3 in Spokane expected to reach peak utilization in 3 years.
• A pivot towards higher-margin businesses with targeted RoCE above 20% enhances confidence in achieving Vision 2030 goals of doubling revenue and reaching 23–25% EBITDA margins.

• Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
• Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
• China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.

• ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
• Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
• Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

• Akzo Nobel’s results for the first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop.
• The company reported flat organic sales with a slight volume decline of 2%, offset by a positive price/mix of 2%.
• This was partly due to strong pricing strategies and cost reduction efforts that mitigated softer market conditions and inflationary pressures.

• The August 1st deadline is approaching, and it seems a bit unclear whether a deal with Vietnam has been reached on a 20% tariff or something lower. 
• With no formal agreement and just Trump’s Truth Social account as a reference, uncertainty looms. For HK-listed companies, the understanding is that they will pass on tariffs to their customers. 
• We summarize this in our call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) following the results. We also provide updates for Pacific Textiles (1382 HK) and other names. 

• TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
• UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
• ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread

• Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
• Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
• Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.

• US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
• It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
• For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).

• Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
• However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
• With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.

• India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.  
• The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).  
• It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.

• Eli Lilly has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the global anti-obesity drug race, fueled by its blockbuster GLP-1-based injectable Zepbound and an upcoming oral pill called orforglipron that could further cement its dominance.
• While rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy enjoyed a first-mover advantage, Lilly’s more effective compound tirzepatide rapidly seized control of the market, capturing 60% share and 75% of new treatment starts.
• Despite facing a setback with CVS’s recent formulary switch favoring Wegovy, Lilly continues to add approximately 500,000 new Zepbound patients each month and is expanding aggressively into international markets including India, China, and Mexico.

• Ola Electric reported a strong 35.5% QoQ increase in revenue, with a significant 32.7% increase in vehicle deliveries
• Overall company showed a rebound and improvement in operational and financial performance, along with strong guidance for FY26.
• Though the company continue to face key headwinds in terms of cost pressures, rare-earth related macro headwinds along with increased competition and regulatory challenges.

• Toumei’s Q3 FY08/25 revenue reached JPY21.2bn, a 25.8% YoY increase, with record highs in all profit categories.
• Office Denki 119 revenue rose 44.9% YoY to JPY9.3bn, with segment profit up 104.8% YoY to JPY1.5bn.
• Office Solutions segment revenue grew 64.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with profit increasing 47.5% YoY to JPY276mn.

• The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
• Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman.  Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
• We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market

• The sales volume growth rate slowed down month by month in 2Q25.
• The domestic sales volume was stagnant in 2Q25 and decreased YoY from March to June.
• However, competitors expanded aggressively; therefore, we believe small ones may go bankrupt.

• The Supreme Court of Korea plans to make a final ruling on Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong on 17 July.
• If the Supreme Court confirms this appellate court’s ruling, then Lee Jae-Yong would finally be cleared of all charges related to the Samsung C&T and Cheil Industries merger. 
• The market is mostly expecting the confirmation of “not guilty” on all 19 charges on Lee Jae-Yong.

• This write-up is about Hikari Tsushin — a Japanese sales organization run by a visionary founder called Yasumitsu Shigeta

• It’s been much talked about on Twitter and Substack, but few of the write-ups discuss Hikari Tsushin’s portfolio of publicly listed equities

• I am personally not particularly interested in Hikari Tsushin itself, as it is primarily a sales organization helping other businesses find customers

• Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is launching a 3,395 crore IPO via a complete OFS, with a price band of INR 540–570 per share, open from July 14 to July 16.
• Company is a fully integrated CRDMO with capabilities across drug discovery, development, and manufacturing for both small molecules and biologics, serving 550+ customers globally.
• The company is undertaking a major capacity expansion, set to make its fermentation capacity over 6x larger than the second-largest Indian CRDMO player post-expansion.

• Strong Revenue Momentum and Profitability:Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) achieved INR 18.4bn in revenue in FY25, growing 25% CAGR over FY20–FY25,with industry-leading EBITDA margins of 36.8% and PAT margin of 23.4%
• Unique Dual Capability in Biologics and Small Molecules:Among the few Indian CRDMOs with end-to-end capabilities across both small and large molecules, and technology-driven portfolio including ADCs, RNAi, peptides, and oligonucleotides
• Peer-Leading Returns and Robust Pipeline: Anthem boasts the highest ROCE (26.9%) among Indian peers, with significant IP-backed revenue streams and global molecule commercialization. It is a BUY for long term.

• UnitedHealth Group’s first quarter 2025 results reveal a number of positive developments alongside several challenges that have led to a downward revision of the company’s adjusted earnings per share outlook.
• The company now expects an adjusted earnings per share range of $26 to $26.50, down from previous estimates, partly attributed to higher-than-expected care activity within its Medicare Advantage business and changes in member profiles impacting revenue at Optum Health.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)‘s 1H25 positive profit alert is encouraging, with 1H25 results growing by 55-78% YoY.  
• YTD, CICC has a 59.5% share of the HK IPO market. The solid H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies is beneficial, as this is its major area of strength.
• Market consensus has underestimated its FY25 earnings, inflating its PER multiples. The current 51% discount of its H-share to A-share is just too steep (average 37.7%).

• Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392
• Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions
• Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.

• FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
• Today’s idea is on CSL

• Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) announced that in Q1FY26 the sales of their drug Izervay (avacincaptad pegol intravitreal solution) in the U.S. market will be ¥15.9B (~$110M, up 25% YoY).
• Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, and Xospata) revenue expanded to ¥336B (+¥176B or +110% YoY) in FY25, representing 18% of the total revenue.
• Astellas agreement with Evopoint Biosciences for a novel investigational clinical-stage antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) targeting CLDN18.2, will help expand its pipeline and augurs well given its expertise in similar therapies (Vyloy).