Event-Driven Archives | Page 105 of 187 | Smartkarma

SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is still expected to buy out SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) minorities sooner rather than later
Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.
APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.
PEXA Group (PXA AU) replaces Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 12 January.
There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK).

ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal

PEXA Group (PXA AU) will replace Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 12 January.
Passive S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) trackers will receive PEXA Group (PXA AU) shares from their Link Administration (LNK AU) holdings and will have to buy the rest from the market.
There will be selling in Pendal Group (PDL AU) from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index trackers as well as from global trackers.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Warrego Energy, Acotec Scientific, Halcyon Agri, Thaicom

There are 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week.
Key updates took place for: Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jan) – Acotec, Halycon, Warrego, Nitro, Norwest, VinFast

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Quiet week as VinFast (1905332D VN) continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.
Event-Driven developments – Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (8 Jan): Tian An, Differ Group, Pharmaron, Joinn Lab, Gushengtang

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
Stocks mentioned include Tian An China Investment (28 HK), Differ Group Auto (6878 HK), Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd-H (3759 HK), Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK), and Gushengtang (2273 HK).

EQD | NKY Index: Equity Vol Has yet to React to Increased Bond Vol. Use Current Lull to Pick up Vega

JGB band shifting has been unable to calm down Fixed Income markets
The BOJ is being forced to intervene in both bond and currency markets due to a pick-up in volatility
Equity vol has yet to react and we see an opportunity to pick-up some gamma/vega

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Jan 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup
Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

By Sanghyun Park

TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank’s stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.
All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.
Other notable targets are Hahn & Co’s Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners’ ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)‘s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO.
The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend.

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Jan 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2023) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2023)
Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A’s, Sell the H’s
Halcyon Agri: MGO One Step Closer As SASAC Approves SPA
Korea M&A Outlook in 2023: What’s for Sale?
Warrego: Gina Bumps As MinRes (Potentially) Circles
EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Use Derivatives to Protect Recent Gains
Warrego (WGO AU): Hancock Ups Its Offer to A$0.36 as MinRes Looms Large
Backtracing Korea NPS Trades on Local Stocks Through KRX FAIR

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
This insight is a follow-up to TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2022).
Our latest top pick for TOPIX Inclusion pre-events is Artspark Holdings (3663 JP).

Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A’s, Sell the H’s

Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) has outperformed Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) by 38% since our last Insight. With the AH premium near parity, we take profit.
We also reverse the position and go long Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) and short Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) to play the premium expansion trade.
Northbound holding of Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) has increased over the last couple of months while Southbound holding of Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) has decreased.

Halcyon Agri: MGO One Step Closer As SASAC Approves SPA

Back on the 16 November, Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) announced Sinochem, holding 65.2% of shares out, had entered into an SPA to sell 36% to China Hainan Rubber (601118 CH).
Upon completion of the SPA, Hainan Rubber will make an MGO, conditional on a 50% tendering acceptance. Sinochem has provided an undertaking not to tender its remaining 29.2% stake.
Halcyon has now announced SASAC has given the green light for the SPA. Outstanding conditions include MoC and NDRC. Those approvals should fall into place shortly.

Korea M&A Outlook in 2023: What’s for Sale?

More than 20 trillion won (US$16 billion) worth of deals are up for M&As in 2023.
However, due to high interest rates and differences on valuations among buyers and sellers, the M&A market in Korea is likely to continue to be weak in 2023.
In this insight, we discuss 24 companies that are up for M&As this year in Korea, including Hanon Systems, SK Shieldus, and K Car.

Warrego: Gina Bumps As MinRes (Potentially) Circles

Talk about a crowded register. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock has 25.91%, Strike Energy (STX AU) has 19.9%, and now a new player, possibly MinRes (MIN AU), has taken a ~15% stake.
186mn shares in Warrego, or 15.2% were crossed in after market yesterday at HK$0.35/share. Regal Funds is understood to be one large seller. No shareholding disclosure has emerged.
Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped the Offer to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.

EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Use Derivatives to Protect Recent Gains

Stock is up over 80% from October lows and almost 10% in 2023 already
Sentiment over fundamentals appears to be driving the rally and stock is back in the worlds top 10 most valuable companies
We consider some option strategies to roll profits and reduce exposure

Warrego (WGO AU): Hancock Ups Its Offer to A$0.36 as MinRes Looms Large

Hancock increased its Warrego Energy (WGO AU) off-market takeover bid by 28.6% from A$0.28 to A$0.36 per share along with a 40% minimum acceptance condition.
Hancock’s latest move is an attempt to ward off a potential offer from a third suitor who has built up a 15% stake (rumoured to be Mineral Resources (MIN AU)).
Strike Energy (STX AU)’s all-scrip offer remains the highest as it is the next takeover target. However, Gina Rinehart’s ego suggests that she will persist no matter the cost.

Backtracing Korea NPS Trades on Local Stocks Through KRX FAIR

By Sanghyun Park

Last year, NPS raised the weighting of defense, renewables, and reopening (entertainment and leisure) stocks. In contrast, NPS mainly reduced exposure to construction, banking, and semiconductors.
In December, NPS is building a fairly aggressive long position in China Reopening. In addition, trading assumed to be portfolio rebalancing for the local chemical sector was detected.
NPS’ stake in most major holdings exceeds 5%. This allows us to monitor NPS’ trading history almost in real time through KRX FAIR.

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Jan 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 2023 High Conviction – SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) – Still Reading Between the Lines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

2023 High Conviction – SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) – Still Reading Between the Lines
Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer Open For Tendering
What Is NPS Buying & Selling?
Futu Holdings: Cross-Border Broking In Crosshairs
Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO: SPA Effective, Next Is Satisfaction of Conditions Precedent
Japfa Ltd: Trading Cheap After AustAsia In-Specie Distribution
HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?
Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?
Appreciate Group/Paypoint: There May Be Higher Rewards in Vouchers

2023 High Conviction – SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) – Still Reading Between the Lines

By Travis Lundy

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was my High Conviction reco in late 2020 for 2021 at ~¥1200/share. It was my High Conviction reco in late 2021 for 2022 at ¥1900/share.
I did not get around to writing it in late December 2022, but on the first day of trading I offer Shinsei as a 2023 high conviction recommendation.
What’s new? Not a lot, but Reading Between The Lines is still top drawer stuff.

Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer Open For Tendering

On the 12 December, Acotec Scientific (6669 HK) announced a HK$20/share partial Offer from Boston Scientific, a 31.6% premium to last close, but below August 2021’s IPO price of HK$23.80/share.
Boston Scientific will acquire at least 156.7mn shares (50.01%), up to 203.7mn (65%). Irrevocables total 60.14%, comprising shares held by CA Medtech/CPE Investment, Jing Li (chairman, CEO), and Bliss Way.
The Composite Doc is now out and the Offer is open for acceptances. This Offer is done. The key question is the final proration.

What Is NPS Buying & Selling?

In this insight, we discuss a list of 60 stocks in Korea where NPS recently added or reduced 1% or more stake (27 adds and 33 reduce).
Among the stocks NPS increased its stake, many of them are clear beneficiaries of the end of zero COVID policies in China including Hotel Shilla, Amorepacific Corp, and GKL.
Among the top market cap stocks where the NPS decreased its stake by 1% or more, they include Lg Innotek, Hyundai E&C, Hyundai Mipo, and Posco International.

Futu Holdings: Cross-Border Broking In Crosshairs

Just one day ahead of its dual primary listing in Hong Kong, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) postponed its Listing by Introduction.
According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Futu has been illegally operating cross-border securities trading without approval.
Suitably, the share prices of Futu and UP Fintech (TIGR US), another online brokerage forced to quit accepting new onshore investors. It’s probably too premature to buy the dip.

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO: SPA Effective, Next Is Satisfaction of Conditions Precedent

The SPA for China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) to acquire 36.00% of Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s outstanding shares from Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) at US$0.315 is effective.
Conditions precedent which relate to Chinese regulatory approvals should be satisfied shortly. Completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.423 (US$/S$ rate fixed on the closing date).
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive.

Japfa Ltd: Trading Cheap After AustAsia In-Specie Distribution

Agri-Food play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) recently distributed in-specie its 62.5% stake in AustAsia Group (2425 HK).
Japfa continues to hold a 55.4% stake in Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), together with unlisted ops focused on animal proteins in Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
Japfa is estimated to be trading at around a 41% discount to NAV and ~4x EV/EBITDA.

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.

Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

The AFR reports that Mineral Resources (MIN AU) was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above Strike Energy (STX AU)’s offer.
MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU).
Warrego Energy (WGO AU)‘s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done.

Appreciate Group/Paypoint: There May Be Higher Rewards in Vouchers

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

PayPoint has launched an agreed cash and shares offer for closest rival Appreciate. On completion, PayPoint shareholders will hold c. 95% and Appreciate shareholders c. 5% of the merged firm.
The offer price doesn’t seem generous (my fair value estimate is 53p vs. 43.45p package value). Event-driven investor Samson Rock is the top shareholder with a 19.7% stake.
Gross spread is 5.9% (including dividend). I believe there are grounds for an offer sweetening, and although both stocks are illiquid, the risk/reward looks appealing, in my view.

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Jan 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Now Open and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Now Open
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change
(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in June
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Now Open

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)’s partial offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US) at HK$20 per share is now open. The IFA opines it to be fair and reasonable.
The partial offer is conditional on the offeror hitting 50.01% voting rights. Irrevocables ensure that it will be declared unconditional on or before the first closing date (26 January).
Based on a minimum proration of 71.31% and at the current share price of HK$17.20 per share, the estimated breakeven price is HK$10.38 per share.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in June

Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see 15 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.35% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.57bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) over the last six months, though there is some near-term deterioration.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) replacing Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN).
Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.
Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.

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Jan 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Handling Treatment & Changes in March and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Handling Treatment & Changes in March
NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In
Nikkei 225 March Review – Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (March): Handling Treatment Changes Lead to High Turnover
Align Partners Goes Activist on Seven Banking Group Companies in Korea
Merger Arb Mondays (02 Jan) – Toyo Construction, Origin Energy, Warrego, Nitro, Fengxiang
PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Float Increases to Drive Changes & Flow
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: OZ Minerals, Warrego, Shandong Fengxiang, Toyo Construction

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Handling Treatment & Changes in March

We expect one change to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in March, though there is a possibility of a second change.
The change in the index handling treatment for Secondary Listings and Dual Primary Listings will also result in some big float changes resulting in inflows to some stocks.
If there are two changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 2.39% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1,536m.

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

We expect 5 changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.
The largest impact of passive trading will be on Page Industries (PAG IN), Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN), Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) and ABB India Ltd (ABB IN).
There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.

Nikkei 225 March Review – Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

By Travis Lundy

There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723) , and Japan Airlines (9201). The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707) , Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703)
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (March): Handling Treatment Changes Lead to High Turnover

We expect at least one change to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March – though there could be another change as well.
Changes to the index handling for Dual Primary Listings should result in an increase in free float and passive inflows to Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK).
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$4.87bn and this is mainly driven by float and capping changes.

Align Partners Goes Activist on Seven Banking Group Companies in Korea

On 2 January, Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) started to go activist on seven leading Korean banking group companies.
According to APCM, the major Korean banking groups could pay out at least half of their net income to their shareholders, which would be more than double the current levels.
Korean banks are trading at deep discount to global peers, now trading at PBR of 0.2~0.4x whereas global peers trade at 1.3x.

Merger Arb Mondays (02 Jan) – Toyo Construction, Origin Energy, Warrego, Nitro, Fengxiang

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Origin Energy (ORG AU).
Lowest spreads – Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Elmo Software (ELO AU).

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Float Increases to Drive Changes & Flow

Some creative float increases for AC Energy Corp (ACEN), San Miguel (SMC PM) and Emperador (EMP PM) should result in the stocks remaining in the index and getting passive inflows.
DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) should replace Megaworld Corp (MEG PM), while UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM)‘s inclusion should result in Robinsons Land Co (RLC PM)‘s deletion from the index.
There will be a big impact on the additions, deletions and stocks with float changes. The stocks have already started to move ahead of the passive flows.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: OZ Minerals, Warrego, Shandong Fengxiang, Toyo Construction

There are 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week.
Key updates took place for: OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).

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Jan 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes Keep Rolling In
Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (1 Jan): APAC Resources, Ausnutria, Pharmaron, Joinn Laboratories

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Potential adds are Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ), Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ).
Potential deletions are PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ).

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June

A third of the way through the review period, we see three potential changes. There are a few stocks that are close to inclusion and could lead to more changes.
There should be a couple of index changes prior to the June review due to the merger of Meritz Financial Group, Meritz Securities and Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance.
Passive trackers need to trade between KRW 5-23bn on the stocks and short interest is quite low on the potential inclusions and exclusions.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes Keep Rolling In

One third of the way through the review period for the June rebalance, we see 9 potential changes to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX).
One way turnover is estimated at 3.3% and the impact on the expected deletions is a lot higher than the impact on the expected inclusions.
The potential adds have massively outperformed the potential deletes over the last year. We’d wait for a reversal before entering a trade here – worth monitoring.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (1 Jan): APAC Resources, Ausnutria, Pharmaron, Joinn Laboratories

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Apac Resources (1104 HK), Ausnutria (1717 HK), Pharmaron Beijing (3759 HK), and Joinn Laboratories (6127 HK).

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Jan 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

The Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.
Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell Meituan (3690 HK) at the close on 4 January following Tencent (700 HK) in-specie distribution.
We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Dec 31

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 57 Companies in Korea in January 2023

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

YFO has played a relatively upfront game for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) – badly at first, then better.
With Takashimaya (8233 JP) and H2O (8242 JP) now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.
Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)‘s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it’s likely to be 13%+.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 57 Companies in Korea in January 2023

We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 57 stocks in Korea in January 2023, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 52 are in KOSDAQ.
These 57 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market.
Among these 57 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include Sungeel Hitech, HPSP, CJ CGV, Sillajen, and Eoflow.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Dec 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: O2Micro Trading Wide To Terms Ahead Of Shareholder Vote and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

O2Micro Trading Wide To Terms Ahead Of Shareholder Vote
Retrospectively Reviewing Prop Traders Vs. Retail on T±4 Ex-Date
JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Dec 2022
MergerTalk: Regulators May Be Hard Pressed To Prove The Amazon/IRobot Deal Harmful To Competition

O2Micro Trading Wide To Terms Ahead Of Shareholder Vote