Event-Driven Archives | Page 15 of 187 | Smartkarma

NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price

Makus Inc (093520 KS) is a textbook case study in Korea of how improving shareholder value leads to surging share price. Its example is simple and beautiful.
Makus announced that it will cancel a total of 6 million treasury shares (37% of outstanding shares) in the next three years until 2027 to increase shareholder value.
Applying a 15x P/E on EPS of 2,788 won (2027E) results in implied target price of 41,820 won per share, which would be a 67% further upside from current levels.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers.
Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

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Jul 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold
The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot
Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield’s Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover
Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms
Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In
BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle
Weekly Update (GLIBK, BDX, WAT)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More

AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold

Trading tax gradually dropped from 0.25% in 2020 to 0.15% in 2025, boosting volatility and short-term trades; a hike to 0.25% could cool momentum but widen arbitrage and basis spreads.
If the major shareholder tax threshold drops to ₩1B, year-end retail dumps and Jan buybacks will return—but with less wild swings and more measured short-term fade and momentum trades.
If the tax revamp drops end-July, expect a September Assembly push. Usually effective next January, but like 2023’s cap gains hike, changes might apply immediately in 2025.

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

By Michael Causton

ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield’s Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover

As discussed in Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?, after ESR (1821 HK) acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said Cromwell Property (CMW AU) was a non-core holding.
After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review.
Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR’s remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms

Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share.
That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In

By Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.
Highlight: Analyzing historical post-earnings price movements, along with forward-looking options-implied volatility, provides valuable insights for event-driven strategies.
Why Read: Access the data and insights to take advantage of anticipated price moves and volatility crush. Potential option strategies explained.

BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.
With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.
The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.

Weekly Update (GLIBK, BDX, WAT)

By Richard Howe

The big news this week is Liberty’s spin-off GCI Liberty began trading
On July 14, 2025, Becton Dickinson (BDX) announced a tax-free Reverse Morris Trust (RMT) spin-merger: BD will spin off its Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions (BDS) business into a new subsidiary (SpinCo) and immediately merge SpinCo with Waters Corporation (WAT).
Under the deal terms, Waters will pay ~$4.0B cash (funded by new debt) plus stock; BD shareholders receive the $4B cash and ~39.2% of the combined company (Waters shareholders ~60.8%).

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Jul 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook
Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing
Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle
Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails
Merger Arb Mondays (21 Jul) – ENN Energy, HEC Pharma, Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Zeekr
Asset Sales, Mergers, and Regulatory Developments: Key Updates from SSI Weekly Newsletter

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing

By Brian Freitas

Anthem Biosciences raised INR 34bn (US$394m) in its IPO valuing the company at INR 320bn (US$3.7bn). The stock lists today.
The grey market premium is INR 132/share, so the stock could list 23.2% higher than the IPO price. That will help in getting larger index flows.
Anthem Biosciences could be added to one global index in November while the stock price gain will determine whether the stock is added to the other global index in December.

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

This Kakao Pay EB deal is basically a quick block trade with immediate share exchange and a 90–102% strike price, letting them sell shares quietly with a built-in discount.
Korea’s seen many EBs, but Kakao Pay’s quick-flip, discount deal is really unique. Watch hedging and roll activity—timing these can capture the sell-off and unwind bounce.
Goldman’s sell-down triggers initial short covering and price bumps; new buyers then short, causing a second wave. Near exchange, more covering leads to choppy, drawn-out price swings.

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks.
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Jul) – ENN Energy, HEC Pharma, Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Zeekr

By Special Situation Investments

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), ZEEKR (ZK US).

Asset Sales, Mergers, and Regulatory Developments: Key Updates from SSI Weekly Newsletter

Next Science (NXS:AX) plans a large capital return after selling assets to Demetra Holdings, with a 13% spread to expected distribution.
Cantor Equity Partners I (CEPO) merges with BSTR, becoming a major Bitcoin treasury, exiting with a 17% gain.
Banxa’s (BNXA:V) spread widens to 30% amid shareholder sales and pending acquisition by OSL Group, with Genius Act tailwinds.

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Jul 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
Weekly Deals Digest (20 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, DD Group, Dickson, Abacus Storage, PointsBet
Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ZEEKR, DD Group, Hanil Cement, Adriatic Metals, Abacus Storage, PointsBet

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the <10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, DD Group, Dickson, Abacus Storage, PointsBet

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NSDL (NSDL IN) is seeking to raise US$400 million
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), DD Group (3073 JP), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) walks away from Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), and accuses 7&i’s Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.
Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB) with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
If you have borrow on GMO Internet (4784 JP), use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ZEEKR, DD Group, Hanil Cement, Adriatic Metals, Abacus Storage, PointsBet

I tally 40 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: DD Group (3073 JP)‘s MBO and the Hanil Cement Co Ltd/New (300720 KS)/Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS) merger.
Key updates/news took place on PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and ZEEKR (ZK US).

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Jul 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap
Next Science Asset Sale to Demetra Holdings: Potential 13% Upside with Capital Return and Strategic Acquisition

Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?

Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.

Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap

By Special Situation Investments

Some still think we must close the borrow pre-settlement in a stock-for-stock merger. But KSD handles it fine — no need to pre-cover if shares stay lendable post-swap.
Spread flipped negative — rare setup in Korea. Tight float on both sides (insider-heavy) is killing liquidity and borrow, leading to this reverse arb play.
Deal break risk is minimal, new share listing is relatively soon, and the negative spread may widen—making this a compelling setup for a reverse arb play.

Next Science Asset Sale to Demetra Holdings: Potential 13% Upside with Capital Return and Strategic Acquisition

Next Science plans to distribute net proceeds of US$30m from asset sale to shareholders, equating to A$0.158/share.
The asset sale requires shareholder approval, with major stakeholders like the Walker family likely supporting the transaction.
Uncertainties include FDA compliance issues, tax treatment of distribution, and potential changes in net proceeds estimate.

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Jul 18

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks
Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus
A Merger Between Hanil Cement and Hanil Hyundai Cement to Become the #1 Cement Player in Korea
Insiders Selling at Silicon2: Negative Impact on Share Price

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again

Back on the 20th June, betr (BBT AU) tabled an all-scrip off-market Offer for PointsBet (PBH AU), with no minimum acceptance condition, which they considered superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
Which was a bold statement, as 3.81 new betr shares, at the time, was equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. It’s now worth A$1.03/share.
Last night, betr released its Bidder’s Statement. Terms are unchanged. Offer opens ~31st July. PointsBet was quick to point out, again, the current (low) value of the scrip terms.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks

Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts.

Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus

Jay Lee’s clean Supreme Court win may cool Samsung’s governance trade near term. With legal risks gone, there’s less urgency to push structural changes or shuffle shares now.
Samsung C&T, a hotspot for governance spec flows, may see bids fade as urgency for structural shifts drops; longs on revamp bets might consider fading or shorting amid lingering risks.
Samsung Life gets relief as forced Elec share sales drop, supporting its stock. Samsung Elec stays neutral. Trade idea: Samsung Life long, Samsung C&T short on cooled governance hopes.

A Merger Between Hanil Cement and Hanil Hyundai Cement to Become the #1 Cement Player in Korea

After the market close today (17 July), Hanil Cement Co Ltd/New (300720 KS) and Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS) announced that they will merge.
Through this merger, Hanil Cement (on a combined basis with pro-forma sales of 1.74 trillion won in 2024) will become the largest cement company in Korea after Ssangyong Cement Industrial.
We expect this merger to have a positive impact on both companies and they are likely to outperform the market and other local cement producers this year.

Insiders Selling at Silicon2: Negative Impact on Share Price

Insiders have been selling at Silicon2 (257720 KS). The company’s CEO Kim Seong-Woon and other related parties sold 0.37 million shares (0.6% stake) in June 2025.
Overall, we are concerned about this recent insider selling at Silicon2. We are lowering our rating on Silicon2 to Negative over the next 6-12 months.
Silicon2 needs to introduce new cosmetic brands such as Joseon Beauty, Round Lab, and Anua that could become very popular on a regular basis. However, that could be a challenge.

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Jul 17

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is
PointsBet (PBH AU): The Battle of Takeover Offers Commences
Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is

Back on the 7th May, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, made a US$25.66/ADS non-binding proposal for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
Yesterday, Geely tweaked and firmed terms at US$26.87/ADS, a 4.7% bump to the original NBIO, and ~3.4% below ZEEKR’s last close. ZEEKR promptly gained 2.4% on the news.
ZEEKR shareholders also have the option to receive Geely scrip. Given Geely’s and Li Shufu’s (10.61%) holdings – neither are required to abstain on voting – this Offer is done.

PointsBet (PBH AU): The Battle of Takeover Offers Commences

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has despatched the bidder’s statement for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) takeover offer. The offer is scheduled to run from July 31 to September 8.
BBT continues to clutch at straws by claiming its offer is superior to Mixi’s A$1.20 all-cash offer. The Mixi scheme results suggest that BBT has limited support from PBH shareholders.
BBT will struggle to gain material acceptance, but hints at possible revised terms. Mixi Inc (2121 JP) will also need to reconsider its offer terms to see off BBT.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover

Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls.
Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.8% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.

BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No

Market assigns low odds to the current terms, with most of the expected value tied to deal failure or a materially higher exchange ratio.
BMPS now holds effective control, but the –3.5% spread shows investors doubt the deal will close as is without further sweetening.
No arbitrage setup is attractive, as convergence to the implied offer still implies a locked-in loss for Mediobanca holders at current market prices.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Absent Borrow and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer
Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report
Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly – manipulated (?) – at nosebleed valuations.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group – and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%.
The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.
The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium.

New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms

Writing reports on copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU) is tricky as they have a half-life of days, sometimes hours, as Kinterra and Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) compete head-to-head.
Last week, Kinterra bumped its off-market Offer to A$0.063/share; which increases to A$0.064/share if it gets to 30%. CAML, currently at A$0.062/share, has matching rights up until the 17th July.
The Takeovers Panel has now, not altogether unsurprisingly, opted not to declare unacceptable circumstances regarding Kinterra’s two applications.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval.
Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent.
There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer.

Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer

Back on the 13th June, dual-listed silver play Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN),with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a
Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie-listed line. And a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
As Adriatic is incorporated in the UK, the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August.

Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE

According to the local media, Netmarble is considering on issuing exchangeable bonds (EB) worth about 250 billion won backed by its stake in HYBE.
The potential EB issue is likely to be slightly positive on Netmarble and slightly negative on HYBE (mainly due to additional shares that could be sold in the market).
We are Negative on BOTH Netmarble and HYBE. Their valuations are not attractive. Plus, HYBE could face a major negative issue of its founder Bang Si-hyuk who could be jailed.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report

Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.

Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

This is MoEF’s first gov-led tax reform—not lawmaker-initiated—and unlike April’s DP bill, it carries broader scope and priority fast-track status, boosting passage odds.
Local chatter says MoEF is eyeing end-July to table its tax reform bill — that’s the base case making the rounds on the tape today.
Gov may go full-scope: 9–25% div tax on all firms plus tax credits. Traders are now rotating into high forward-yield names ahead of MoEF’s late-July package.

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Jul 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified
Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up
DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light
Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge
Merger and Acquisition Updates: GLXZ, OCFT, ASLI:L, and CPPTL’s Strategic Developments
BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL

GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed.
The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.

[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal

Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group.
The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look.
But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business.

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.

Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up

Property developer Guangdong – Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Holdings (1396 HK) (GHKGBA) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
GHKGBA, previously known as Hydoo, was subject to an unconditional MGO in 2019 after China Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (CGHKGBA) acquired a 51.56%. CGHKGBA currently holds a 50.94% stake
At a guess, CGHKGBA will seek to take GHKGBA private by way of a Scheme. The rub/pushback? GHKGBA’s share price is up 2,383% YTD. And trailing P/B is ~7x.

DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light

Diamond Dining (3073 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY1,700, a 17.8% premium to the last close price.
The offer is light and is 16% below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The process was lacking as there was no auction.
DD has no recent history of activism. Therefore, the likelihood of a bump is low unless there is vocal opposition or an activist becomes a substantial shareholder.

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge

By Special Situation Investments

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.65 per unit, a 14.7% premium to its previously rejected offer.
The Board will grant six weeks of due diligence. While below NTA (implies P/NTA of 0.95x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
The consortium will likely need to switch to a takeover offer as National Storage REIT (NSR AU), which holds effectively a blocking stake, is unlikely to vote in favour.

Merger and Acquisition Updates: GLXZ, OCFT, ASLI:L, and CPPTL’s Strategic Developments

Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) merger with Evolution AB is pending gaming regulatory review, with a 14% spread remaining.
OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT) secured antitrust approval from SAMR for Ping An takeover, narrowing spread to 5%.
abrdn European Logistics Income (ASLI:L) sold two warehouses at a premium, with further asset sales in advanced discussions.

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy
Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making
A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression
Weekly Deals Digest (13 Jul) – Toyota Industries, OneConnect, Great Eastern, Johns Lyng, NTT DC REIT
Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Kirsh/Public Storage Bump And Afforded Due Diligence
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot
Weekly Update (GCI, IGT/BRSL, Greenblatt)

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU).

Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making

The bill’s side notes clearly state that the mandatory cancellation rule applies retroactively to existing treasury shares without any exemptions.
If this passes the Assembly as-is, it’ll trigger a historic forced cancellation of treasury stock across ~1,660 companies—about three-quarters of the K-equities market.
Watch if this punchy bill clears committee and floor without cuts. Dems plan to fast-track it Sept 1, holding the majority to push it solo, aiming for year-end rollout.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression

AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Jul) – Toyota Industries, OneConnect, Great Eastern, Johns Lyng, NTT DC REIT

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) and NSDL (NSDL IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Johns Lyng (JLG AU), New World Resources (NWC AU).

Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Kirsh/Public Storage Bump And Afforded Due Diligence

Two months ago, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) announced, and subsequently rejected, a A$1.47/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, from Nathan Kirsh’s Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US)
The Kirsh-led consortium has now bumped non-binding terms 14.7% to A$1.65/share, and has been granted six weeks of due diligence.
Nathan Kirsh directly/indirectly holds a 59.47% stake in ASK. Abacus has never closed above A$1.60/share.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot