Event-Driven Archives | Page 6 of 186 | Smartkarma

The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent. A stake it acquired twenty years ago.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Finish Line in Sight as the Minimum Tendering Condition Is Lowered

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has lowered its minimum tendering condition but kept its Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) tender offer unchanged at JPY4,140.
The lowered minimum tendering condition, which would be met based on acceptances as of 24 September, would also enable the share consolidation vote to pass based on AGM voting trends.
Takateru Murakami has been left high and dry and will likely pursue appraisal rights. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/10.8%.

LS Group Family Members Sold a 6.3% Stake in LS Ecoenergy – To Buy More Shares of LS Corp?

By Douglas Kim

It was reported that various members of the LS Group family/relatives sold a 6.3% stake in LS Eco Energy Ltd (229640 KS) for about 70 billion won in after-hours trading.
There is an increasing probability that this could lead to these insiders purchasing more shares of LS Corp to defend their controlling stake of the company from the Hoban Group.
Hoban Group is likely to have acquired more than 3% stake in LS Corp. If so, it can request to inspect LS Corp’s books and convene a shareholders’ meeting.

Buy 99 Shares of Lennar (LEN) – Special Situation Odd Lot

By Richard Howe

Lennar (LEN) announced an exchange offer on October 10, 2025 whereby investors can exchange their LEN shares for shares of Millrose Properties (MRP), Lennar’s land bank spin-off.
To incentivize the exchange, LEN investors will receive $106.43 of value in MRP shares for every $100 of value in LEN shares.
I expect the exchange offer to be oversubscribed, However, there is an odd lot provision such that any L:EN shareholders with 99 shares or less (odd lot provision) will not be prorated.

Daiichi a Possible Target for Arcs Takeover as Gains in Hokkaido

By Michael Causton

Ito-Yokado’s withdrawal from the Hokkaido market has proven a windfall for affiliated chain, Daiichi.
The Hokkaido supermarket has already opened new stores in sites vacated by Ito-Yokado – the only difficulty has been finding ways to fill the larger spaces.
Now Arcs is waiting in the wings in case Daiichi becomes available for takeover – Arcs’ chairman owns 1% of Daiichi personally.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October’25 Report

Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.
Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.
Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.

Analyzing Bel Fuse Share Class Arbitrage: BELFB Premium Over BELFA and AI-Driven Market Dynamics

BELFB trades at a 25% premium to BELFA; both share classes have identical economic rights but different voting and dividend structures.
The BELFB premium may be influenced by AI data center excitement, better liquidity, and recent credit facility amendments.
Share class arbitrage lacks a clear catalyst and timeline; previous price gaps closed within a year or longer.

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Oct 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break
Accor (AC FP) SLB: Trade the Verification Window
Intermestic (Zoff) Doubles Stores to 600 with Megane Super Purchase

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble

Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling

The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment.
The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.

Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add

Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.
CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break

By Gaudenz Schneider

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.
Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC’s earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.

Accor (AC FP) SLB: Trade the Verification Window

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Trade the 2028 SLB. Long value in Accor’s €700MM 2.375% SLB due in 2028. Monetise price moves around verification and vendor updates.
High 2025 miss risk. 2024 levels imply steep absolute cuts required in one year. Intensity improved, absolutes did not. Scope 3 looks hardest to meet.
Know the catalyst path. Observation occurs at YE 2025, with reporting and assurance arriving in 1Q 2026. Markets usually react when verification and data vendor fields update.

Intermestic (Zoff) Doubles Stores to 600 with Megane Super Purchase

By Michael Causton

Intermestic, operator of the eyewear retailer, Zoff, has acquired Megane Super for ¥19 billion.
WIth 620 stores, the combined new eyewear chain is larger than JINS, but the latter still has higher sales, at least for now.
Zoff will use Megane Super’s expertise to take more share in the contact lens market but will also use its new scale to expand its own chain.

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Oct 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization
Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Mergers, SPACs, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025
Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains
SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions
Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb

Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization

By Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) raised US$411m from its US IPO in April 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Mergers, SPACs, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025

LakeShore Biopharma’s delisting from Nasdaq to OTC caused forced selling, impacting merger arbitrage spread, with 18% upside potential.
Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a 40-50% spread.
Currency Exchange International’s closure of Canadian business and potential US uplisting could enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves

Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains

By Gaudenz Schneider

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
Highlight: In recent years, the bank has consistently beat analysts’ expectations and often posted a positive performance post-earnings.
Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.

SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions

Lennar Corporation plans to divest its remaining 20% stake in Millrose Properties to shareholders with a 6.38% premium.
Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at a 0.00687x ratio.
Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with potential privatization efforts by founder Dickson Poon.

Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb

Defined downside: OPAP trades ~2% below its €19.04 exit anchor, with a 5% cap limiting redemption but offering a clear floor for risk-arbitrage positioning.
Catalyst carry: €0.50 dividend in November plus €0.80 post-close yield 6–7% carry into H1 2026 completion, reinforcing positive IRR on a short-duration special situation.
Governance overlay: KKCG’s 85% voting control speeds execution and capital access but embeds a governance discount; key to watch: listing venue, board independence, and dividend discipline.

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Oct 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 November
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
Falcon Oil & Gas Merger with TBN: High-Risk Arbitrage Opportunity Amid Borrow Concerns and Tax Implications
Treasury Burn Story Hits a Milestone—Lotte Serves up the Ruling Party’s Playbook at the Hearing
A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 10 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew But Trade Tantrums Again
Lennar’s MRP Split-Off: Key Considerations, Risks, and Strategies for Odd-Lot and Hedged Positions

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.

Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares

By Douglas Kim

On 13 October, Value Partners has come out in support of Samyang Holdings (000070 KS)’s equity spin-off plan but on the condition that the company must cancel its treasury shares.
Value Partners believes Samyang Holdings is currently severely undervalued, trading at a P/B of 0.34x. A shareholders meeting for Samyang Holdings is scheduled for 14 October.
We have a positive view of this equity spin-off. Our NAV valuation of Samyang Holdings suggests an implied price per share of 127,138 won (28.6% higher than current price).

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Scheme Vote on 10 November

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$9.25 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 November.
I previously argued that the vote carries risk due to a solid interim, the imminent surgical robot growth story, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.
However, the risk has been lowered due to Bin Yuan and LYFE no longer being shareholders, along with the peer derating. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 3.7%/22.0%.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

Falcon Oil & Gas Merger with TBN: High-Risk Arbitrage Opportunity Amid Borrow Concerns and Tax Implications

Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell its assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at 0.00687 ratio.
The merger’s spread fluctuates due to hedging concerns and potential TBN stock decline to pre-announcement levels.
Lamesa Holdings’ shares are excluded from distribution due to sanctions, affecting the stock exchange ratio calculation.

Treasury Burn Story Hits a Milestone—Lotte Serves up the Ruling Party’s Playbook at the Hearing

In yesterday’s hearing, Lotte skipped alternatives and signaled treasury burn, seen as bowing to political pressure, sparking a notable NXT post-market reaction.
The mandatory treasury burn story hinges on major local holdings and their follow-through. Lotte’s hearing gave a live read, boosting the narrative’s traction in the near-term local market.
Traders’ takeaway: holding cos with large treasury stakes could outperform, signaling a chance for outright longs, relative weight plays, or NAV discount tightening—time to get more aggressive locally.

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 10 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew But Trade Tantrums Again

“Beautiful Skew” showed up again across the long holiday. Hs on average outperformed As by 1.57% over the 29-30 Sep and 9-10 Oct period.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share OUTperform its A by 2.52% and it outright rose just over 1%. Meh.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Lennar’s MRP Split-Off: Key Considerations, Risks, and Strategies for Odd-Lot and Hedged Positions

LEN shareholders can exchange stock for MRP at a 6.38% premium, with an upper limit of 4.1367 MRP shares per LEN share.
Odd-lot holders (99 shares or less) are prioritized and exempt from proration; oversubscription is expected, applicable to odd-lot positions only.
The final exchange ratio is determined by VWAP from November 3-5; borrow risk for MRP exists, potentially impacting hedged positions.

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Oct 13

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): 10th Nov Shareholder Vote on Founders/TPG/QIA’s Offer
Advent × U-Blox — 64.64% Vs 66⅔%; Watch Oct 15
Eramet (ERA FP) SLB: Trade the Metals Event-Carry Window
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU).

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): 10th Nov Shareholder Vote on Founders/TPG/QIA’s Offer

On the 12th August, Hangzhou Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The HK$9.25/share consideration price (declared final), was an lacklustre 9.9% premium to last close. But pitched around a four-year high.
The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 10th November and expected payment around the 16th December – in line with my expectations.

Advent × U-Blox — 64.64% Vs 66⅔%; Watch Oct 15

Provisional acceptance 64.64%, below 66⅔% minimum; ~155,900 shares short. Definitive interim due 15 Oct; Advent may secure additional tenders or buy stock under Swiss rules.
If threshold met, residual carry modest at CHF 133.8 close; if not, offer lapses and shares likely revert toward standalone value pending any revised Advent approach.
Positioning: stay light and tactical until 15 Oct print; monitor block trades/irrevocables; interloper risk low, re-bid or bump more plausible path than competing strategic bid.

Eramet (ERA FP) SLB: Trade the Metals Event-Carry Window

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Trade call: Long the 2028 SLB for a likely step-up from at latest May 22, 2026, hedge duration, exit post vendor field updates in May 2026.
Probability of rate step-up: Single KPI miss and step-up path most likely, with intensity tight and engagement near threshold, optionality crystallizes into tactical carry, not credit stress.
Catalyst path: Step-up mechanics, assurance, and vendor field updates create a defined trading window, see uplifted coupon count and cash cost below.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
Caterpillar, which currently holds no shares in RPMGlobal, is offering A$5/share (the same as in the NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. Terms have not been declared final.
FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. The key ACCC question is whether the combo has significant direct market overlap that triggers substantial competition concerns.

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Oct 12

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Infomedia, Tekscend
Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Sihuan Pharma, Dongfeng Motor
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mandom, Pacific Smiles, Robex Res., Infomedia, Pacific Ind., ReNew Energy

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Infomedia, Tekscend

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: FineToday Holdings (420A JP), Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN), LG Electronics India (123D IN), JST Group (1703609D CH) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU).

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Sihuan Pharma, Dongfeng Motor

As with large, clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, expect Hang Seng (11 HK)‘s annualised spreads to widen (i.e. gross spread remains static) as investors hit their full quota early on.
The question is whether Soft99 (4464 JP)‘s MBO Bidco raises the price to ¥3,200 saying “let’s split the difference”, and that would make some people happy. It’s doubtful they will.
Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK) has benefited a little from the HK$500mn buyback programme announced last October. But a HK$11bn run up in market cap YTD? This looks stretched to me.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mandom, Pacific Smiles, Robex Res., Infomedia, Pacific Ind., ReNew Energy

I tally 43- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)/Robex Resources (RXR AU), and Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).
Key updates/news took place on: Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP).

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Oct 11

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance
Ørsted: New Shares 10 Oct | Single-Line Supply/Digestion

Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance

Next rebalance is Dec 12; Simmtech (222800 KS) looks set to replace Philoptics, with a KRW 0.8T market cap gap making it a high-conviction front-runner.
Dongjin Semicam and Daeduck clear market cap but face keyword-score risk; PSK Holdings vs S&S Tech is tight — final screening will decide, so front-running carries caution.
December rebalance AUM doubled; Simmtech and Philoptics could see ~1x DTV passive flows, likely triggering an even stronger passive price impact than last cycle.

Ørsted: New Shares 10 Oct | Single-Line Supply/Digestion

Rights done; allocations set; new shares list 10 Oct under DK0060094928; temp ISIN DK0064307755 subscription-only; ISIN merge 13 Oct 17:59 CEST.
Tape orderly into listing; shares 106.5→119 since ex-rights; rights basis tightened to ±~2% versus parity; expect single-line supply/digestion as subscribed stock meets the tape.
Trade stance: fade the listing flush; buy 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118 (stretch 121–124); hard stop <101; confirm ≥DKK 1.0–1.5bn day-one value.

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Oct 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities
[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist – ValueAct Reports 7.9%
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Potential Outcomes as the Board Responds to Effissimo Allegations
Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN): Indian Regulators Cleared Long-Awaited Open Offer of IHH
Dickson Concepts Faces Potential Privatization as Founder Poon Considers Renewed Bid After Failed Attempt
Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): Genesis Returns To Dislodge Co-Founder
BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has announced an Offer from controlling parent (63.3551%), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme, in a HK$106bn (US$13.6bn) deal.
The Scheme Consideration is HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price is final. A “third interim dividend” will be added. Optically, the price is bang on.
The long stop for conditions is the 30th September 2026. I think this transaction can be wrapped up in around five months.

[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist – ValueAct Reports 7.9%

Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in Sun Corp (6736 JP) and it may make proposals to management.
This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on 13 Aug and 12 Sep). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.
ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Potential Outcomes as the Board Responds to Effissimo Allegations

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has responded to Effissimo’s allegations. As expected, the Board accuses Effissimo of stating half-truths.
The Board’s missive indirectly suggests that incremental acceptances since October 1 have been tepid, KeePer has not tendered, and the MBO is struggling to meet the minimum tendering condition.
The two likeliest outcomes are 1) the MBO succeeds at current terms with KeePer likely joining BidCo, and 2) both offers fail. The risk/reward is unattractive at the last close.

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response

Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.
But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN): Indian Regulators Cleared Long-Awaited Open Offer of IHH

By Tina Banerjee

SEBI has approved IHH Healthcare’s open offer for acquisition of up to 26% stake in Fortis Healthcare (FORH IN). If materializes, this should uplift IHH’s holding in Fortis to 57%.
In 2018, Fortis’ original open offer price was INR170 per share, and the offer size was INR33B. Currently, Fortis share is trading at INR1,054, up more than 6x since 2018.
IHH will make appropriate announcement ‘in a timely manner’, which should provide clarity on open offer pricing. Unless an attractive revised price is announced, the shareholders acceptance will be limited.

Dickson Concepts Faces Potential Privatization as Founder Poon Considers Renewed Bid After Failed Attempt

Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with a market cap of HK$2bn and HK$3.3bn in cash.
Founder Dickson Poon attempted privatization at HK$7.20/share, blocked by minority shareholders with 10.16% voting against.
Business remains profitable despite downturn, with average net income of HK$200m and HK$1.4bn operating business value.

Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): Genesis Returns To Dislodge Co-Founder

Earlier this year, Genesis Capital secured ~89..27% in Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, via a A$1.90/share tendering Offer. Co-founder Alison Hughes resolutely maintained her 10.01% stake.
PSQ has now announced Genesis has returned to the well with a A$2.20/share unconditional Offer.
That’s a solid 37.5% premium to last close. And within the IE’s revised fair value range of A$2.13-A$2.56/share, who declared termns fiar and reasonable.

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.
Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.

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Oct 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
Sihuan Pharma (460 HK): On Xuanzhu Biopharm’s Imminent Spin-Off
Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.

Sihuan Pharma (460 HK): On Xuanzhu Biopharm’s Imminent Spin-Off

On the 12th November 2024, Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK) proposed spinning-off the shares of Xuanzhu Biopharm on the main board of Hong Kong.
Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical‘s prospectus is now out. Shares are priced at HK$11.60/share, backing out a market cap of ~HK$6bn vs. Sihuan Pharma’s HK$17.4bn market cap. Trading commences on the 15th October.
Sihuan Pharma will hold 49.1% post IPO. Its share price is up 189% YTD. Looks frothy. Then again, so does Hong Kong’s IPO market.

Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers

By Evan Campbell, CFA

Private debt terms signal stress. The primary lender’s 1YR term facility implies a 50%+ IRR via a MOIC option. This is under-covered and signals constrained alternatives.
Calendar precedes cash. Fixed obligations hit before revenue, so equity value is driven by sequencing rather than AI demand narratives.
Underwriting focus. Binding large-scale lease, funded bridge through fuel and logistics, and a credible take-out or refinance of the short-tenor facility.

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Oct 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
Yext Receives Privatization Offer: Board Evaluates Strategic Alternatives Amid Potential Bidding War
Infomedia (IFM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 November
Infomedia (IFM AU): 18th November Vote On TPG’s Offer
Capgemini–WNS: Locking in the Final Basis Points
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move
Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) To Spin-Off Its Seeds Business; Targets Sharper Focus and Valuation Upside
Yext’s Management-Led Privatization Proposal: Evaluating Strategic Alternatives Amidst AI Pivot and Shareholder Dynamics

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics

KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.

Yext Receives Privatization Offer: Board Evaluates Strategic Alternatives Amid Potential Bidding War

The company received a non-binding privatization offer from the CEO at a 10% premium to pre-announcement levels.
A committee of independent directors is evaluating the offer and exploring other strategic alternatives, indicating the company is open to bids.
There is a high single-digit spread to the offer price, with limited downside due to strong recent earnings.

Infomedia (IFM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 November

The Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) IE considers TPG’s A$1.70 offer fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$1.57 to A$1.79 valuation range.
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, German FDI approval, and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is reasonable and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids.
The scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close and for a 3 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.4%.

Infomedia (IFM AU): 18th November Vote On TPG’s Offer

Back on the 11th July,Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
TPG offered A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards. All in, terms looked clean.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th November, and expected implementation on the 3rd December. The IE (Grant Thornton) says “fair & reasonable“.

Capgemini–WNS: Locking in the Final Basis Points

Capgemini’s $76.50 all-cash acquisition of WNS has cleared all approvals; only court sanction remains.
Scheme court hearing set for 9 October; settlement expected around 16 October 2025.
With a 0.25% gross spread, this is now a low-risk, near-cash arbitrage position.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context:Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) will report Second Quarter FY 2026 Results on Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close.
Highlight: Typically a low-volatility stock, TCS has seen notable post-earnings swings in the past. Option markets now anticipate a move larger than its historic average.
Why it matters: TCS is a top constituent of the Nifty 50 and Sensex. TCS’s commentary on the new H-1B visa fee could influence sentiment across India’s IT services sector.

Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) To Spin-Off Its Seeds Business; Targets Sharper Focus and Valuation Upside

By Garvit Bhandari

Corteva plans to spin-off its Seeds business in to a separate publicly liated company. Parent will retain the Crop Protection business
The separation enables sharper focus and capital allocation between two fundamentally different businesses.
The seed / trait business is viewed as the higher growth, higher innovation leg (gene editing, trait licensing, intellectual property). These attributes tend to attract premium multiples.

Yext’s Management-Led Privatization Proposal: Evaluating Strategic Alternatives Amidst AI Pivot and Shareholder Dynamics