Event-Driven Archives | Page 8 of 187 | Smartkarma

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4.
Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling.

Jardine Matheson (JML SP): Additional Office Recycling Speculated

The prior MO for the Jardines group was never sell your commercial buildings. This year marks a paradigm shift in that line of thinking.
First Hongkong Land (HKL SP) sold nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK). The first such sale since 1988.
Now Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) is negotiating the sale of “certain office space” at One Causeway Bay. Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s NAV discount and implied stub are at 12-month lows/highs.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Hope and Despair as the MBO Close Extended

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced that the close of the MBO offer period has been extended from 2 to 17 October. There are two key takeaways from the announcement.
First, KeePer has not yet tendered its shares, despite providing an irrevocable. Second, the non-KeePer acceptances have increased from 6,108,200 shares on September 18 to 6,598,149 shares on October 2.
The chances that KeePer accepts the Effissimo offer have increased. However, the current non-KeePer acceptances of the MBO make it highly challenging for Effissimo to succeed. Take profits.

LG Electronics India IPO: Big Market Cap, Small Float -> Small Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

LG Electronics India (123D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 101.8m shares at a valuation of US$8.7bn and raising around US$1.3bn in its IPO.
The new valuation is around 24% lower than the rumoured valuation at the time of the DRHP filing last December.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

Sammaan Capital: Is Abu Dhabi’s $1.06 Billion Bet the Start of a New Era?

Sammaan Capital’s Board approved a preferential issue to Avenir Investment RSC Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants.
The strategic inflow from the well-capitalized, sovereign-linked IHC provides a massive de-risking event, validates Sammaan’s new-book strategy, and signals a powerful new stream of capital flows into Indian HFC/NBFC space.
The scale, strategic nature, and pricing of the deal position Sammaan for a significant re-rating, shifting the investment thesis from asset quality clean-up to funded growth.

I-Net Corp (9600 JP): ORIX Corp (8591 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY2,530

I Net Corp (9600 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Orix Corp (8591 JP) at JPY2,530, a 53.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
Despite the high required minority tendering rate, an attractive offer facilitates completion. The tender runs from 3 October to 17 November.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Plummets, Rebounds, Activist Rebuts, KeePer Lab Holds, MBO Extends

On 25 September, with the stock trading just below Effissimo’s terms, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board came out AGAINST the Effissimo proposal 66% higher than the MBO terms.
The fine print said that the Soft99 deal had enough shares to get over the line assuming Keeper Labs tendered according to agreement due to Board Support. Shares plummeted.
Effissimo issued a stunning rebuttal which showed Board incompetence/negligence, possible breach of fiduciary duty. Today, MBO Bidco extended, the stock popped, but details are key.

Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP): Daiseki (9793 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,850

Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP) at JPY1,850, a 54.3% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range and represents a three-year high.
The low required minority tendering rate facilitates completion. The tender runs from 3 October to 17 November.

FONAR Privatization Proposal: 13% Spread, Potential Price Increase, and Strategic Family Control

FONAR’s privatization offer at $17.25/share by controlling shareholders has a 13% spread, with potential for a price increase.
The company, trading at 5x EBITDA, holds $54m net cash, covering a significant portion of the buyout cost.
FONAR’s core diagnostic centers generate 92% of revenue; the unprofitable MRI manufacturing segment is operationally integrated.

Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Acquisitions, Tender Offers, and More

Chorus Aviation is repurchasing 8% of shares at C$23.00–C$25.00, offering C$45 risk-free upside; tender expires November 10.
STAAR Surgical’s largest shareholder opposes Alcon’s $28/share acquisition, potentially forcing a higher bid before October 23 meeting.
Forian’s $2.10/share go-private proposal by a founder-led consortium is under review, with shares trading at offer price.

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Oct 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad
LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset
GST Exemption: A Catalyst for Growth and Margin Headwinds for ICICI Prudential Life
RateGain Acquisition of Sojern: A Travel Tech Powerhouse in the Making?
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – This Deal Looks Mighty Bad

JIP and MitHeavy have announced a takeunder to buy out MitHeavy sub Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) at a weighted average price 42% lower than Target Advisor DCF range midpoint.
No/Minimal transparency. A sales process interrupted by Trump tariffs, leaving one low-ball bidder. And the sellers goes ahead with it BUT gets to reinvest on the back end. You don’t.
The Board “supports” the Tender Offer, but leaves it to the opinion of the shareholders as to whether they tender. MitHeavy has 64.4% already so that basically gets done. But…

LG Chem: Announces a PRS Worth 2 Trillion Won Using Its Shares in LG Energy Solution as Base Asset

LG Chem announced that it plans to complete a price return swap worth about 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion) using its stake in LG Energy Solution as the base asset.
This 2 trillion won PRS is likely to have a slightly positive impact on LG Chem and slightly negative impact on LG Energy Solution.
Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 369,187 won, which is 31% higher than current levels.

GST Exemption: A Catalyst for Growth and Margin Headwinds for ICICI Prudential Life

The GST Council’s decision to exempt all individual life and health insurance premiums from GST (0% vs. 18% earlier), effective September 22, 2025, is a landmark affordability move.
The immediate drop in premiums for products like term and ULIPs is expected to drive a significant surge in demand, though insurers like ICICI Prudential will lose ITC on expenses.
While the volume boost from higher affordability is a major long-term catalyst, immediate margin compression from ITC loss on commissions will require operational efficiency and pricing recalibration for ICICI Prudential.

RateGain Acquisition of Sojern: A Travel Tech Powerhouse in the Making?

RateGain Travel Technologies has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire US-based, AI-powered travel marketing platform Sojern for an upfront consideration of $250 million.
The acquisition is a bold move to create a scaled, AI-first digital marketing and distribution platform, significantly boosting RateGain’s MarTech business and nearly tripling its revenue/EBITDA run-rate (pre-synergies).
The strategic upside of owning the full guest acquisition-to-retention cycle justifies the blended financing structure and the integration risk of two large, geographically dispersed travel tech companies.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.

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Oct 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares
StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Looking Toppish. Again.
Fiduciary Duty Expansion in Korea Fuels Class A Prefs Relative Value Trade
Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float
Seven West Media (SWM AU) Enters Scheme With Southern Cross (SXL AU). But Not Everyone Is Happy
Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush
Dupont Spin-off (Qnity) Deep Dive
Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June

By Brian Freitas

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.

Doosan Robotics – End of Lockup Period For 34% of Outstanding Shares

There is an end of a lock-up period for 22.1 million shares (34% of outstanding shares) for Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) starting 5 October 2025.
This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
Doosan Robotics’ valuation multiples remain extremely high. We remain BEARISH on Doosan Robotics.

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Looking Toppish. Again.

Melco International Development (200 HK) is now trading at a premium to NAV for the first time since announcing a one-for-two rights issue.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Fiduciary Duty Expansion in Korea Fuels Class A Prefs Relative Value Trade

Fiduciary duty expansion gains teeth once the third-stage treasury cancellation passes—setting up Class A prefs as prime re-rating, discount-compression plays in local flows.
Fiduciary duty expansion gives Class A prefs new legal backing, making them standout re-rating plays with discount-compression potential, unlike Class B with built-in dividend protections.
Hyundai Motor 1P vs 2PB offers a tight but tradable setup, while CJ Corp and AmoreH show wider A/B gaps, even after adjusting convertible premiums.

Tata Capital IPO: Big Listing, Big Valuation, Small Float

By Brian Freitas

Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR155bn (US$1.75bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 1,384bn (US$15.6bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in June 2026.
The stock should be added to the Large Cap segment in the AMFI Classification in January and to the Nifty Next 50 Index in March.

Seven West Media (SWM AU) Enters Scheme With Southern Cross (SXL AU). But Not Everyone Is Happy

Television broadcaster and publisher Seven West Media (SWM AU) has entered into a Scheme with radio network play Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).
SXL will issue 0.1552 new shares for every SWM. Should the Scheme get up, SXL will hold 50.1% of the combined entity and SWM the remainder.
Kerry Stokes backed SGH Limited (SGH AU) will hold ~20% in the merged entity. But not all shareholders are on board with the Offer. Trading through terms.

Ørsted: Rights Trading Update | Parity Tightening, Fade the Listing Flush

Since 17 Sep ex-rights, shares rose 9.7% and rights 30.1%; rights discounted to parity on 7/9 sessions (avg −1.8%). Turnover ~DKK 4.94bn total, signalling orderly borrow and stabilising syndicate flows.
Into 10–14 Oct listing, base case is a supply pulse toward TERP-adjacent levels, then digestion. Near-term path: 106–114 first prints, tests 103–106 on wobble, rebuilds 112–118 as supply clears gradually.
Trade: buy the listing flush. Start 103–106, add 108–110 reclaim; target 114–118; tight risk below 101. Engage arb only at 1–2% rights discounts. Watch sustained >+1% premium for borrow tightening.

Dupont Spin-off (Qnity) Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

DuPont (DD) is set to spin off 100% of its Electronics business, Qnity (Q), in early November.
Qnity is positioned to grow in line with the semiconductor industry, which is expected to expand at a mid-single-digit CAGR.
A large portion of its portfolio consists of consumable products, supporting strong profitability with EBITDA margins around 30% (inclusive of ~$100 million in public company costs).

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

By Gaudenz Schneider

Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.

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Sep 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo
Mirae Asset Group Companies Continuing To Buy Mirae Asset Life Insurance – A Prelude to Delisting?
Decoding OneSource Pharma’s Strategic Amalgamation: A Blueprint for a Global CDMO Powerhouse?
Weekly Update (SFGI/8729, NLOP, KBR)
KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

Miniso (9896 HK)’s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

In MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY’s finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO’s recent segment accounts.
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.

Mirae Asset Group Companies Continuing To Buy Mirae Asset Life Insurance – A Prelude to Delisting?

The increased purchase of Mirae Asset Life Insurance shares by the Mirae Asset Group companies could be a PRELUDE to a potential voluntary delisting of Mirae Asset Life Insurance.
We believe that there is a relatively reasonable probability of the Mirae Asset Group taking Mirae Asset Life Insurance private in the next 1-2 years.
Mirae Asset Life Insurance is trading at only 0.4x P/B. Treasury shares represent 26.3% of its total outstanding shares.

Decoding OneSource Pharma’s Strategic Amalgamation: A Blueprint for a Global CDMO Powerhouse?

OneSource Specialty Pharma has approved a Composite Scheme of Arrangement to acquire Steriscience’s EuropeanCDMO and Brooks Steriscience’s Indian anti-infective assets.
The transaction adds approximately $107 million in projected FY27 revenue, significantly diversifying the portfolio, reducing single-site risk, raising the consolidated FY28 revenue outlook to over $500 million.
While the acquisition multiples appear steep for subscale assets, if management successfully delivers on ambitious growth targets, the transaction could position OneSource among the most competitive players in CDMO landspace.

Weekly Update (SFGI/8729, NLOP, KBR)

By Richard Howe

This week, I published a deep dive into Sony’s upcoming spin-off of Sony Financial (SFGI/8729).
I will be watching the spin-off closely and hoping for selling pressure.
KBR, Inc. (KBR) announced on September 24, 2025 that it plans to spin off its Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) segment into a separate publicly traded company.

KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

EU Commission and Austria/Belgium cleared. Remaining approvals: US HSR and FDI in Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain. After these, UK High Court sanction and order registration are gating steps.
At 4,088p versus 4,175p consideration, gross spread is 2.13%. Expected annualized IRR ~4–6% assuming Jan–Mar 2026 cash. June entry at £32.04 still screens exceptional, ~39–51% annualized, settlement-dependent on current guidance.
Maintain exposure; monitor court timetable and residual filings pace. Dividend ex-date is 2 October 2025. Outcome probability remains high; timing within Q1 drives IRR sensitivity and settlement-month dispersion for investors.

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Sep 29

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
Spindex Industries (SPE SP): PrimeMovers Equity-Sponsored MBO at S$1.43
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall
A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board
Spindex Industries (SPE SP)’s Clean MBO
ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO
RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).

Spindex Industries (SPE SP): PrimeMovers Equity-Sponsored MBO at S$1.43

Spindex Industries (SPE SP) disclosed a privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Chairman and PrimeMovers Equity at S$1.43 per share. Including the FY2025 dividend, the total offer is S$1.45.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is light in comparison to peer and precedent transaction multiples. It is also below book value.
The offer has not been declared final. However, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership lowers the vote risk.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$19bn a day this past 5-day week. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
The recommended name last week was short Alibaba (9988 HK) was +4.65% on the week despite HK being down across the board.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board

“Beautiful Skew” showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Spindex Industries (SPE SP)’s Clean MBO

Late Friday (26th September), precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex’s controlling shareholder (74.95%).
The Tan’s are offering S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed, and a decade-high price. The Offer is backed by PE outfit PrimeMovers Equity.
Clean deal. No competing Offer will emerge. I estimate payment mid-Jan 2026.

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
ReNew’s Special Committee will provide “public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025“.

RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.
Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.

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Sep 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December

Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sony Corp/Sony Financial, Naspers/Prosus, Shandong Hi-Speed, Shift Inc

Trading in Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights has passed. SFGI starts trading separately on 29 Sep. ¥150/share is good. ¥130-140/share is even better.
Naspers (NPN SJ)‘s NAV is edging towards the low-end on a 12-month basis, However, the implied stub is out of whack as Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms.
The Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) bubble has finally popped. Now what?

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Jinke Smart Services, Soft99, Mandom, Paramount Bed

I tally 39 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).
Key updates/news took place on PointsBet (PBH AU), Oneconnect (6638 HK), Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP).

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Sep 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
Waaree Energies Under US Scrutiny: A Solar Powerhouse Faces Tariff Probe
Chorus Aviation’s Odd Lot Tender Offers Potential C$45 Upside for Tax-Exempt Investors Amid Share Buyback

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.

Waaree Energies Under US Scrutiny: A Solar Powerhouse Faces Tariff Probe

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched a formal investigation into Waaree Energies, alleging the company evaded anti-dumping and countervailing duties by mislabeling Chinese-made solar products as Indian.
The probe, initiated by a U.S. domestic manufacturing coalition, directly threatens India’s growing solar exports to the U.S. and highlights the complexities of global supply chains.
This investigation introduces significant regulatory and financial risk for Waaree Energies, and the outcome will be a crucial for its ability to participate in the U.S. market.

Chorus Aviation’s Odd Lot Tender Offers Potential C$45 Upside for Tax-Exempt Investors Amid Share Buyback

Chorus Aviation is repurchasing 8% of shares at C$23.00–C$25.00, with odd-lot holders prioritized.
Paid-up capital is C$15.75/share; amounts above this are treated as dividends, impacting tax-exempt accounts.
Previous tender was undersubscribed; CHR shares viewed as undervalued, with historic low EBITDA multiples.

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Sep 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price
[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed
StubWorld: Naspers Coming Up “Cheap” Vs Prosus
FSS Just Announced: Treasury Disclosure Threshold Cut to 1% — Trading Highlights
Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register
Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Now Open To Tendering
A Pair Trade Between Hyundai Elevator and Hyundai Movex Amid a 7% Stake Sale in Hyundai Movex

Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited.
The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price

Today after the close, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board of Directors came out AGAINST the Effissimo ¥4,100/share counterbid to the original ¥2,465/share MBO.
“The Special Committee advised that the Tender Offer would not contribute to the enhancement of the Company Group’s corporate value, nor would it be fair to the Company’s general shareholders.”
¥2,465 is fair. ¥4,100 is not fair. Absolute hogwash. Unmitigated blatherskite. Pure trumpery. Codswallop, buncombe, taradiddle, balderdash, and nincompoopery too. I expound below.

[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger

On 10 September, CVC announced a family-led MBO of well-known Japanese hair-care/cosmetics firm Mandom Corp (4917 JP). Agreed, supported, recommended, for a start date end-September. It was also too light.
I suggested the open-ish register could trigger activists. The stock opened just above terms post-announcement and then traded higher. Shares fell today but it is still 15% through terms.
Hibiki Path Advisors wrote a strong letter. Murakami announced a 6.67% stake yesterday, 8.39% today. But that’s 5 days old. Today, the company announced the TOB starts tomorrow. Still fun.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has, unsurprisingly, opposed the Effissimo offer for several reasons. Notably, they do address the huge price disparity between the two offers.
While most of the reasons to justify the opposition are weak, the Board unexpectedly notes that as of 24 September, the MBO retained acceptances to satisfy its minimum tendering condition.
Despite the significant premium of the Effissimo offer, this development suggests that the current acceptances for the MBO are sticky, thereby increasing the likelihood that Effissimo’s offer will fail.

StubWorld: Naspers Coming Up “Cheap” Vs Prosus

As Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms, Naspers (NPN SJ) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor.
Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus and Tencent (700 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

FSS Just Announced: Treasury Disclosure Threshold Cut to 1% — Trading Highlights

Disclosure threshold drops from 5% to 1%, signaling stricter transparency, heavier penalties, and potential acceleration of buyback cancellations; new rules open for comment until November 5, effective Q4.
Near-Term, high-treasury, solid-ROE stocks could see short-term momentum as mandatory cancels and tighter disclosure mechanically lift EPS, driving flows and setting up potential short-term longs.
This sparks a new event-driven “disclosure schedule trading” setup, as 1%+ treasury holdings now trigger twice-yearly reports and six-month follow-ups, boosting volatility around announcements.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

In What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months.
My guess was that SDHG’s high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG’s shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register

With the pre-cons squared away as per the 3rd September announcement, the key risk to Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)‘s Offer is the Scheme vote.
The HK$9.25/share consideration price (declared final), was an uninspiring 9.9% premium to last close. But pitched around a four-year high. And peers are down 10% on average since the Offer.
A persual of the s329 investigative reports provides a significantly clearer picture on who holds what.

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Now Open To Tendering

On the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
At an auction, the Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties, (then) holding 37.86%, bought a 18.05% stake in Jinke, subject to CSDC oversight. Approval was received on the 19th September.
The Composite Document is now out, and shareholders, should they so choose, can tender. The first close is the 17th October. The Offer may get extended. I doubt it.

A Pair Trade Between Hyundai Elevator and Hyundai Movex Amid a 7% Stake Sale in Hyundai Movex

On 24 September, Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS) announced that it plans to sell 7.8 million shares of Hyundai Movex (319400 KS), representing 7% of its outstanding shares.
Over the next several weeks, we expect continued outperformance of Hyundai Elevator vs Hyundai Movex.
We like the pair trade of going long Hyundai Elevator and going short Hyundai Movex over the next 1-3 months, especially due to concerns about a 7% sale in Movex.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap, Deserves Activist Response
Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Another MBO Susceptible to Activism
Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung’s Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend
Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

[Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap, Deserves Activist Response

In a fairly common pattern, the founding family (38% ownership) of Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) have launched an MBO.
It is too cheap at 4.2x adjusted EV/EBITDA (one could argue it is 5.0x but they also have net receivables) for such a ubiquitous brand and growth.
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) may have been a one-off. Maybe not. People may look at this situation through that lens. It deserves that look.

Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Another MBO Susceptible to Activism

Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY3,530, a 32.2% premium to the last close price. The offer represents a ten-year high.
The offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range and its requested price. Hibiki has previously suggested an intrinsic value of JPY4,929.
The setup shares several traits with the Mandom MBO, and has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder or agitates for better terms.

Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung’s Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend

Pref spread looks stretched near 21–22%, likely a pullback soon. Structural re-rate needs a major Samsung narrative shift.
A surprise Samsung special dividend could pivot the pref discount; H2 FCF, Q3 prelims, and lighter capex are the key swing factors.
Expect a short-term pullback; but still stay cautious. Watch the memory upcycle and consider a discount-narrowing trade around late September.

Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

Murakami reported a 7.14% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board’s recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO.
With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable.

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Sep 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October
BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?
Heineken’s USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?
AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return
LakeShore Biopharma Faces Privatization Offer Amid Nasdaq Delisting and Market Overreaction

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable.
The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October.
The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided.

BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.
MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).
Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.

Heineken’s USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?

By Devi Subhakesan

Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ’s US$3.2bn acquisition of beer, soft drinks, and retail assets in Central America at 11.6x EV/EBITDA highlights the valuation gap with Asian Beer Companies.
CR Beer’s strong 1H2025 recovery in sales and margins were powered by innovative product launches and digital channel sales. However it’s performance has drawn little market attention, yet.
China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) trades near 10-year low EV/EBITDA, even as consensus expects solid margins and steady revenue growth ahead. Expect a valuation upside.

AAM-Dowlais: Short-Dated Arb with Double-Digit Annualised Return

Dowlais shareholders receive £0.43 cash plus 0.0881 AAM shares, valuing the stock near 82p. Current price 79.75p leaves a 2.9% spread, annualising to ~11–13% returns.
Both shareholder votes passed and AAM secured $3bn funding, reducing execution risk. Regulatory approvals across the US, EU, China, Brazil, and Mexico remain the final gating conditions to completion.
Downside if deal fails: shares could re-rate to pre-announcement 68–75p, ~5–15% downside. Market sees limited overlap, so main risk is delayed approvals pushing closing into early 2026.

LakeShore Biopharma Faces Privatization Offer Amid Nasdaq Delisting and Market Overreaction