This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Japan Post Bank (7182) – Report of ¥600bn Offer Would Lead to Index Flows, and a New Future
- On 22-February-2023 a Reuters suggested JPH (6178) had “started talks” to sell a big stake in JP Bank (7182). Five days later they announced a complicated deal discussed here.
- Today, an article suggests Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will sell ¥600bn in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to get ownership below 50% (as with JPI). A buyback might appear.
- JPB has issued a “there’s smoke” release. Like last time. Expected unwind of known overhang means minimal surprise here. The question is whether they could surprise (big buyback? capital plan?).
2. Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
- The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected.
- The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
- Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.
3. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
- The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights.
- Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.
4. We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
- We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
- We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
- The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.
5. Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
- JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
6. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering
- Reuters reports that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) is planning to sell shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).
- The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.
- The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding.
7. Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
- With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
- Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
- The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.
8. JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway
- JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
- Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
- The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.
9. Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
- Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
- Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
10. Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – The IPO Is Attractively Priced
- MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and Baicha Baidao Industrial. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.
- 2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively.
- Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.
