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Evergrande

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sydney Airport, Softbank, Evergrande, Shinsei, Macau Gaming, Shui On Land

Event-Driven

358 Views19 Sep 2021 07:40

SUMMARY

Last Week in Event SPACE ...

The third time is the charm as Sydney Airport (SYD AU) grants due diligence to Sydney Aviation Alliance.
After consulting the ancient texts, studying the runes, tossing the bones, and reading the tea leaves, there is likely to be a large seller on Softbank Group (9984 JP) coming shortly.
At its heart, this is a proxy fight for Kansai Super Market (9919 JP). And every proxy fight deserves a shareholder structure analysis.
I think we just got a peek at Schrödinger's Cat. And it's dead. Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) needs government intervention right now.
How Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)'s poison pill would work might matter - but it might not.
A consultation initiative spooks Macau gaming stocks. It's a brave soul betting not only on who keeps their licence, but also the valuation attached to such a license.
It is not apparent the expected valuation assigned to Shui On Land (272 HK)'s spin-off company plus the remaining ops, together with a holding company discount, suggests the company is undervalued.

Plus, other events, CCASS movements (flagging possible Offers and IPO lock-ups), and Mood Spins.

(This insight covers specific insights & comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

M&A - ASIA

Sydney Airport (SYD AU) (Mkt Cap: $15.9bn; Liquidity: $44mn)

After rejecting an $8.25/share proposal on the 15 July, and a $8.45 bid on the 16 August, SYD has now granted the Sydney Aviation Alliance (SAA) non-exclusive due diligence after receiving a A$8.75/share conditional proposal, a 51% premium to the undisturbed price on the 4 July 2021. SAA comprises Aussie investors IFM Investors, QSuper, and AustralianSuper, and the U.S.' Global Infrastructure Partners. As per Australia's Airport Act, at least 51% of the airport must be Australian-owned. Consistent with the initial proposal on the 5 July, should the proposal proceed, UniSuper (SYD's largest shareholder with 15.3%) will roll over its equity stake into the Consortium, rather than receive the cash consideration. And as per the earlier proposals, any dividend paid would reduce the cash consideration.

A binding deal may be signed by the middle of next month, suggesting this could be completed around 1Q22/2Q22. A privatised Sydney Airport would subsequently join Australia's other major airports which are privately held. Perhaps this is the key takeaway - not that Australian super funds are now very much active; but as The Australian puts it: "listed infrastructure stocks are becoming rare across the globe; listed infrastructures that own an asset as unique and critical as Sydney Airport are rarer still."
SYD's earnings have been - and continued to be - savaged by COVID, and Australia's zero-tolerance Covid policy all-but severing international passenger flow. But five to six months is a long time in our Covid world. Who's to say domestic - and possibly international numbers - are flying at the time SYD shareholders vote on a deal.
Trading at a 4.7%/7.5% gross/annualised spread (at the time of my insight) - assuming late April completion. That looks tight, for what remains a non-binding Offer. I'd prefer to enter around $8.25/share (6%/10% gross/annualised).

(link to my insight: Sydney Airport (SYD AU): Consortium Ups Bid And Granted Due Diligence)

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) (Mkt Cap: $3.6bn; Liquidity: $17mn)

On Thursday 9 September, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced a Tender Offer aimed at lifting its stake in Shinsei Bank to 48% at a sharp premium (up 46%). It hadn't warned Shinsei Bank of its intention to do so. The Nikkei reported in a short article earlier this week that Shinsei's board would meet this week to approve an "emergency" poison pill defence. If this causes the stock to spike because it looks like Shinsei is being crafty, Travis Lundy said he might sell if he owned stock.

As discussed in SBI (8473) Launches a HOSTILE Tender Offer on Shinsei Bank (8303)!, Shinsei has somewhat alienated the rest of the industry and it is not clear which other bank would want to come in to buy Shinsei. If they have to pay up to 0.5x book, they could probably buy their own shares. Nobody wants to get in bed with the government holding 20% of your shares and haranguing you for not paying them back at more than 3x the current price.
And it is not clear which non-bank financial would want to.Orix Corp (8591 JP)? Probably not. A broker? Probably not. Most brokers would not want to be regulated as a bank holding company. They'd prefer to be regulated as a Holding Company. How about a powerful strategic? Amazon Japan? Rakuten? Softbank? Travis cannot see why they would want to own a minority equity stake alongside someone else who doesn't want them there, a management team which doesn't really want them there except to block the other shareholder, and the government who doesn't care but will not allow you to do what you want.
What IS important to recognise here is that Shinsei calling for a Poison Pill EGM extends the optionality around the situation.
UPDATE. After the close on Friday, Shinsei said it will launch a poison pill defense,, and will not extend its tender offer. This actually INCREASES opportunity. But one should not count on things turning out this way (depending on from whom SBI is getting advice - the initial response is poor - this may change).

(link to Travis' insight: Shinsei Looks To A Poison Pill, But Probably Not Really)

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU) (Mkt Cap: $0.5bn; Liquidity: $2mn)

After bumping the Offer by 12.3% to A$1.55/share, Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) and retail pharmacy health/beauty and lifestyle products operator API entered into a process deed yesterday. A fully franked dividend of A$0.05/share is permitted, which if paid will reduce the cash consideration. Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) remains supportive and will vote its 19.3% in favour of the revised proposal. API has granted Wesfarmers exclusive due diligence until the 16 October. The deal is also subject to ACCC clearance.

This remains a non-binding Offer, and we have seen two Aussie deals break in the past fortnight, reinforcing the country's moniker as the non-binding graveyard. On the 6 September, BGH withdrew its proposal (Hansen Technologies (HSN AU)'s Assured Deal With BGH) for Hansen Technologies (HSN AU), following a protracted due diligence. Yesterday. EGT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) announced they had been unable to agree to a transaction. That proposal (Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT's Latest Proposal) also involved an extension to the due diligence period. Something to think about.
I estimate the Offer pitches API at 8.1x and 21.1x, forward EV/EBITDA and PER; and 1.7x trailing P/B. That compares to its five-year average of 8.5x, 14.6x, and 1.2x respectively. As discussed in my monthly M&A wrap ((Mostly) Asia M&A: August 2021 Roundup), the premium to the undisturbed price is consistently around-33% on average in Australia. This revised Offer, at a 35% premium, bang in line with M&A premiums Downunder in 2021, ticks that box.

(link to my insight: Aussie Pharma (API AU): Wesfarmer's Sweetened (Yet Indicative) Offer)

Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) (Mkt Cap: $0.5bn; Liquidity: $2mn)

This is a complicated deal and it begs the question of whether shareholder interests matter and how shareholders decide. On 31 August, Kansai Super and its top shareholder (10.02% of shares out) H2 O Retailing (8242 JP) announced a business merger whereby the H₂O would inject two supermarket businesses it owns - Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis - into a holding company with Kansai Super, receiving shares in a newly enlarged Kansai Super in exchange. H₂O would go from owning 10.66% to owning 58% of Kansai Super, and the 89.34% of minorities would own 42% of NEWCO.

A couple of days later, on 3 September, privately-held discount supermarket chain OK Corp, which was the second-largest single shareholder of Kansai Super at 7.23%, stepped up and offered a press release which said that it would vote against the merger and if the merger were not approved, it would be willing to launch a Tender Offer to buy the shares of Kansai Super at ¥2,250/share (the highest price since listing and nearly vs ¥1,374/share the day before, and more than double the market price of Kansai Super in June when the proposal was made).

Travis thinks investors buying in the market at ¥2,000/share and above are engaging in wishful thinking. There is a chance that investors vote through the deal to take over Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis, giving H₂O 58%. If that deal does not eventuate, I expect that a deal with OK Corp is not in the offing. It would take a respite, then a period of reconciliation and discussion, then later some kind of agreement. And during that time, they could be working on a second crack at a deal with H₂O. OK Corp has said they will not go hostile.
If you own Kansai Super, Travis recommended selling at the time of his insight. If the deal breaks - and there is ample possibility it does - there is no promise that a competing deal would eventuate. Just because a deal with H₂O did not work at first crack does not mean Kansai Super would welcome a deal with OK.

(link to Travis' insight: The Kansai Super (9919) Conundrum)

Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)traded ex its special dividend this past Tuesday. You could still tender into the Offer - but not buy and tender. If you tender, you still receive the special dividend. But if you intended to tender into the Offer, with a minimum pro-ration of 76.02%, you should simply sell in the market at the time at HK$18.60 and get 100% filled. The final pro-ration was 89.6%. Not bad. Link to my insight: Kerry Logistics (636 HK): Sell Here As Opposed To Tendering.

The morning of the 16th of September 2021, Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) announced an expected A$0.37/share fully-franked special dividend (which should produce A$0.15857/share of franking credits) to go ex- on 21 September, which coincidentally should be the last day of trading for the stock. Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) shares fell more than 5% on the day, heading lower early, and staying low throughout the day. The substantial excess volume suggests that there IS pre-positioning. It would not appear to be nearly as large as the total excess volume. That suggests there is still a decent net buy on SOL which is not pre-positioned for Tuesday's close. Borrow on SOL has disappeared. Travis remains bullish. He is now less inclined to take risk off into the close of Tuesday because the net offer to bid side volume progression has been so mild. Link to Travis' insight: Marvelous Milton and WHSP (SOL AU) Index Event Prepositioning Analysis.

The previous Friday, midsize residential JREIT Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP) launched a follow-on equity offerings to partially fund their recent acquisitions. The primary offer quantity is 70,476 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 3,524 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥8.5bn (~US$77mn). While such offerings are mostly of interest to primary market investors, we also see such offerings as catalysts for strong secondary market performance making these events worth tracking for secondary market investors too. On average, J-REITs have historically outperformed the TSEREIT Index in the wake of follow-on equity offerings, with win rates exceeding 80%. In Daiwa Securities Living (8986 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs TSEREIT Index, Janaghan Jeyakumar looks at the details of Daiwa Securities Living (DSLIC)'s latest offering and an evaluation of its potential to trigger outperformance against the TSEREIT Index.

Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) announced that their shareholders had rejected their proposal for voluntary delisting bringing an abrupt end to an event trade that was gathering a lot of momentum. This was not a glitch. The opposition to this Deal is loud and clear. Since the time the Deal was announced in August 2020, Allcargo share price has more-than-doubled. However, this is now a Deal Break situation. According to press reports, the promoters will not reinitiate a delisting process. INR109.00 is the true "undisturbed price". That was the last price at which the stock traded before the first delisting proposal was announced in August 2020. However, many things have changed since then. The newly-set floor price of INR148.01 is a more logical rock-bottom estimate of Deal Break Price. As a safety measure, Janaghan recommends in Allcargo (AGLL IN): Shareholders Reject! What Now? he would quit this volatile situation as soon as possible.

Wood flooring manufacturer Nature Home Holding Company (2083 HK) announced on the 27 July an Offer from its founding shareholders, by way of a Scheme, at HK$1.70/share, bang in line with my earlier estimate. The Offer Price will not be increased. Nature Home does not intend to declare any dividends during the Offer period. Dehua Tb New Decoration A (002043 CH) has given an irrevocable rollover undertaking for its 19.6% stake. The Scheme Document is despatched. The Court Meeting is scheduled for the 6 October and provided all resolutions pass, cheques are expected to be despatched on or before the 26 October. This Offer still looks done. The IFA considers the terms to be fair and reasonable, but also flags uncertainty as to Nature Home's financial position and operating cash flow on account of its outstanding trade receivables with Evergrande. Link to my insight: Nature Home (2083 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Court Meeting On 6 Oct. Evergrande Overhang.

Malaysia-based packaging material manufacturer and property developer Scientex (SCI MK) launched an Unconditional Voluntary Take-Over Offer to buy all the remaining shares in their 61.88%-owned subsidiary Daibochi (DPP MK). Scientex will pay RM2.70 per ordinary share and RM0.32 per warrant in cash. The Offer is for 124,784,759 ordinary shares (representing 38.12% of the total issued shares) and 26,137,985 warrants (representing 95.75% of the outstanding Warrants). This is a simple rate-of-return trade with near-zero downside risk. Link to Janaghan's insight: Scientex - Daibochi: Unconditional Voluntary Take-Over Offer.

SK E&S is taking its subsidiary Busan City Gas (015350 KS) private through a tender offer. On 16 September, SK E&S announced that it would buy 2,595,597 shares of Busan City Gas (23.6% stake) at 85,000 won per share. Link to Douglas Kim's insight: SK E&S Makes a Tender Offer For Busan City Gas To Take It Private.

STUBS

Melco International Development (200 HK) / Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US)

As discussed in StubWorld: Gambling On Macau's Gaming Concession Renewal, the casino licences for all six gaming operators in Macau - Melco, Sands China Ltd (1928 HK), Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK), Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK), SJM Holdings (880 HK) & MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) - expire in June 2022. In 2002, the gaming regulator gave licenses to Wynn Macau, Galaxy-Sands, and SJM. Three sub-concussions ensued - Sands, Melco PBL Gaming, and MGM Paradise.

Licences are (were) expected to be renewed via a bidding process. But given time constraints, many of the operators publicly commented that a possible (more plausible) alternative was for the licenses to be extended for a year or even two years. A form of limited extension is permitted under current Macau gaming law. However, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, Macau's regulator, also known as DICJ, has now said a 45-day public consultation process regarding the revision of the city’s gaming law, will commence today. A 45-day consultation period is, given what is at stake, incredibly short. Gaming stocks tanked.
Lei Wai Nong, Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, was tacitly uncommitted to specific questions - such as whether licenses would be extended, and more importantly, whether the number of licenses would be reduced. He did say was necessary to maintain a certain scale for the gaming sector, but that there could be differences in license terms as the sector has come of age and a number of facilities have been completed.
In Hong Kong's Standard, it quoted Ian I Lin, a consultant to the secretary for the Economy and Finance Office, as saying "The Macau government proposed to prohibit the sub-concessionaire in the gaming law and to reexamine the number of licensing for gambling operators". I cannot find a source for that quote. This suggestion here - and flashed around numerous media articles (such as here) - is that sub-concession will be axed. As of now, it appears to be a proposal, not an absolute. My bet is that the government issues six licenses and does away with the sub-concessions. A tender process will still be involved but is unlikely to generate a new player.
Galaxy and SJM appear "relatively" in the clear, but amid China's common prosperity drive, to what extent will they be required to step up and fund other social responsibility initiatives? I'd avoid the US-backed gaming companies. The US companies are (were) smart about being over-levered - from Chinese banks, not western ones - then paying out big divis up the corporate structure. If the licences were ever yanked - unlikely, but you never know - the ownership effectively just transfers to the banks.

(link to my insight: StubWorld: Consultation Batters Macau Gaming Counters)

EVENTS

Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) (Mkt Cap: $5bn; Liquidity: $45mn)

Early this week, Evergrande announced it expects significant declines in contract sales in September. Contract sales in June, July, and August 2021 were to RMB71.63bn, RMB43.78bn, and RMB38.08bn. Often the month of September is when real estate companies in China record higher contract sales of properties. Evergrande said: "ongoing negative media reports concerning the Group have dampened the confidence of potential property purchasers in the Group.... (and) in view of the difficulties, challenges and uncertainties in improving its liquidity .... there is no guarantee that the Group will be able to meet its financial obligations under the relevant financing documents and other contracts".

Chinese media has also lit up recently as property buyers raise concerns their apartments may not ever be completed; and concerns have also been voiced from (mainly ) retail investors (many of whom are Evergrande employees) who invested in wealth management products in which the proceeds were used to fund Evergande's property projects.
This culminated in scores of people protesting outside Evergrande's headquarters in Shenzhen earlier this week according to news reports from Reuters, The Standard, and others.
The fact Evergrande has had to deny it is facing bankruptcy is somewhat of a death sentence. With customers now spooked - reportedly housing authorities in Foshan said mortgages would be suspended to Evergrande projects in Nanhai district - how will the decline in revenues be reversed, which in turn further exacerbates liquidity issues, and Evergrande's ability to service debt? The fact Evergrande's liquidity issue has now gone fully public makes one question how it can reverse this negative trend - without government intervention.

(link to my insight: Evergrande (3333 HK): Now Homebuyers And Employees Are Revolting)

There should be a down-weight to Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s TOPIX weight in October. The current level of 72.78% - assessed at that level to avoid having to make an inter-review selldown - will likely be re-assessed to 0.55 or 0.60. The selldown should be 43-60mm shares or at JPY 7,000/share that would be $2.7-3.8 billion or 3.0-4.2 days of ADV, which is decent-sized for a stock like this where a large portion of the volume in any given day is day-traders and HFT. Link to Travis' insight: That Upcoming $3-4bn SELL on Softbank Group (9984).

Shui On Land (272 HK) (Mkt Cap: $1.3bn; Liquidity: $2mn)

On the 13 September, PRC property developer Shui On announced the proposed spin-off and listing various property interests in China, under the banner Shui On Xintiandi. This is Shui On's second attempt to list Xintiandi, having first proposed a listing on the 28 May 2012. That spin-off was ultimately abandoned, but not before Brookfield Property invested US$500mn in convertible perpetual securities on the 31 October 2013, and once exercised on the 2 September 2015, gave Brookfield a 21.894% stake in Xintiandi. On the 28 December 2018, Shui On bought out Brookfield's share for HK$4.073bn. This implied a fair value for Xintiandi of HK$18.6bn. With a NAV of HK$17.4bn (as at 31 Dec 2017), Shui On paid an implied P/B of 1.07x. Since 15 March 2019, Xintiandi has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shui On Land.

"Xintiandi" is a well-recognised name. Personally, I find the neighbourhood a tad preserved and fake - not unlike Cheung Kong's 1881 here in Hong Kong - each to their own. Shui On has attempted to replicate the success of Shanghai Xintiandi elsewhere in China, but with limited success.
It's not evident that carving out this entertainment hub, together with a dozen other property interests, will garner a premium to listed PRC property plays. If it does, then conversely, the remaining ops could well trade at a lower P/B than the combined entity currently.
It is positive Shui On is looking to monetise Xintiandi and use those proceeds to pay a special divided. But I'm not confident the valuation assigned to the spin-off company plus the remaining ops, together with a holding company discount, would suggest investors get involved here.

(link to my insight: Shui On Land (272 HK)'s Xintiandi Spin-Off)

Japan-based food delivery company Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP) launched a follow-on equity offering to raise capital for business expansion. In Demae-Can's Latest Offering Preserves The Potential for TOPIX Inclusion, Janaghan still sees Damae-Can as a potential TOPIX Inclusion Candidate. If they make it to the Prime Market, he conservatively expects their FFW to be around 35% and assuming a TOPIX-tracking of 18.5% of float, the potential Inclusion Quantity could be around 9.3mn shares based on post-offering share count. Based on current ADV, this would be roughly 11 days of volume but since trading volumes can increase after this offering the actual day count could be lower than this. this also depends on who takes up the offering. Demae-Can prices its offer at ¥1736/share, after the stock magically closed down 8+% on the 15 September.

Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS) announced it will be spinning off its utility business that makes industrial boilers and power generation facilities that produce electricity. It's a small business though - it generated sales of ₩37.3bn in 2020, and had total assets of ₩171.5bn. This compares to SK Chemicals sales of ₩1,215bn and total assets of ₩2,120bn. Link to Douglas Kim's insight: SK Chemicals - Spinning Off Its Utility Business & Creating Higher Value.

M&A - EUROPE

A Swedish Orphan Biovitrum Ab (SOBI SS) takeover had been rumoured for years. On 1 September, Advent International Corporation and GIC Special Investments Pte. Ltd. made an offer to acquire SOBI for SEK 69.4 bn, or SEK 235/share. There are irrevocable undertakings, 43.41% in aggregate, from Investor AB (36.45%) and Fjärde AP-Fonden (6.96%). However, their agreement would lapse if another bid comes in at SEK 251/share and is recommended by the Board. There is a minimum acceptance condition of 90% plus one share to initiate a compulsory acquisition. In Advent & GIC/SOBI: Awaiting a Sweetened Offer Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar believes that the offer from the bidding consortium may be sweetened; the market thinks alike.

On 9 September, in a defensive move,easyJet PLC (EZJ LN) first rejected a takeover approach from Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ LN) that would have created a low-cost airline to rival Ryanair, then launched a fully underwritten £1.2 bn rights issue to fly solo in its struggle to recover from the pandemic. The share price of easyJet went into a tailspin. Link to Jesus' insight: EasyJet to Launch £1.2 Bn Rights Issue After Rejecting Hostile Takeover Approach.

On 13 September 2021, Ocean Yield ASA (OCY NO) announced that it had reached an agreement with Octopus Bidco (owned by funds advised by KKR & Co Inc (KKR US)). Consideration is NOK 41/share, cum dividend, for an implied equity value (deal value) of NOK 7,186.75 mn (NOK 7,200 mn as reported) and implied EV of 18,789.38 mn. This represents 12.4x EV/Fwd Revenue, 13.2x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 10.9x Fwd P/E and 125.8x deal value/Consensus NAV. The consideration will be increased with any incremental sales price received for the FPSO Dhirubhai above $19 mn if sold prior to settlement of the offer. If Aker Energy declares the purchase option at $35m, the offer price will rise to NOK 41.74/share. Link to Jesus' insight: KKR/Ocean Yield: Recommended Offer.

Vivendi SA (VIV FP) will increase its stake in Lagardere SCA (MMB FP), which implies the mandatory launch of a takeover bid for the whole share capital of Lagardere. Vivendi has agreed to purchase a 17.9% stake from of Amber Holdings in Lagardere, thus raising its stake to 44.9%. Therefore Vivendi will exceed the 30% threshold that requires launching a full takeover bid. Both the 17.9% acquisition and the subsequent takeover bid are launched at a price of €24.10/share. The premium paid amounts to 23.6% (18.4% to the 3-month VWAP). Link to Jesus' insight: Vivendi/Lagardere: Mandatory Friendly Offer.

M&A RISK ARB WEEKLY ROUND-UP

This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks. I number 36, mostly firm, deals around the region.

(link to my insight: Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Sydney Airport, Aussie Pharma, Milton, Shinsei Bank)

INDEX REBALS

Santos Ltd (STO AU) / Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU). SAntos and Oil Search are members of the S&P/ASX100 and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). We see Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as a potential inclusion in the S&P/ASX100 while Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) or Paladin Energy (PDN AU) could be included in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). Link to Brian's insight: Santos/Oil Search Merger & Potential ASX100/200 Replacement.
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview. Potential inclusions are Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) while the potential deletions are Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) and Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB). Link to Brian's insight: SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes, Could Be a Couple More.
Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview. The expansion to the universe could see BYD (1211 HK) added to the index while Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) could be deleted from the index. XPeng (9868 HK) and Li Auto (2015 HK) fail the velocity test for tradable indices and should not be included in the index. Link to Brian's insight: Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Autonomous Driving Change.
HSCI Index Rebalance. Brian expects Brii Biosciences (2137 HK), Helen's International Holdings (9869 HK), Medlive Technology (2192 HK), Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK) and SCE Intelligent Commercial Management (606 HK) to be included in the index at the close of trading on 3 December. Link to Brian's insight: HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December and March.

OTHER M&A & EVENT UPDATES

EGT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) have been unable to agree to a transaction.
iCar Asia Ltd (ICQ AU)'s board agrees to the extension of the exclusivity period.
FTSE announced that the upweight on West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP) would take place on the close of the 17th. West Japan Railway will remain in the index with an increased shares in issue total from 191,204,871 to 243,871,971 and an unchanged investability weighting of 94.55%.
Japara Healthcare (JHC AU)'s Scheme Meeting set for the 21 October.
As expected, shareholders approvedBestway Global Holding (3358 HK) Scheme at the Court Meeting on the 15 September. Cheques to be dispatched on the 19 October (on or before).
As expected - the Composite Doc for China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) has been delayed. But to the 15 June (if need be).

CCASS

My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves which are often outside normal market transactions. These may be indicative of share pledges. Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings.

Often these moves can easily be explained - the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, lock-up expiry, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.

Name	% chg	Into	Out of
Dongwu Cement International (695 HK)	53.90%	CMB	Outside CCASS
Tibet Water Resources Ltd. (1115 HK)	10.29%	Ching Hing	Chow Sang
Goldin Financial (530 HK)	24.32%	ICBC	Outside CCASS
Raymond Industrial (229 HK)	13.87%	BNP	HSBC
Le Saunda (738 HK)	12.25%	BNP	HSBC
Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)	10.56%	BNP	HSBC
Minsheng Education (1569 HK)	10.24%	St Chart	Outside CCASS
Amuse (8545 HK)	24.30%	Quasar	Outside CCASS
Finsoft Financial Investment Holdngs (8018 HK)	14.52%	MS	DBS
C&N Holdings Ltd (8430 HK)	14.14%	Futu	Outside CCASS
Source: HKEx

The following large movement(s) concern recently listed companies, and therefore are (likely) lock-up related.

None this week.

I listen to a bunch of music when writing insights. Here are a handful of tunes, old & new, that piqued my interest during the week: Quanza's Neon Noir, LTJ's I Don't Want This Groove To Ever End, Logic1000's Safe In My Arms, Ariwo's To Earth.

What are you listening to?

Enjoy your Sunday!