This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025
- Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
- Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
- BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
2. Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds
- Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
- The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
- Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
- Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
- This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
- Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.
4. President Yoon’s Approval Ratings Surges to 47%, Gets Arrested, and Declares Rampant Election Fraud
- It has been another wild day in South Korea as Yoon Suk-Yeol became the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested.
- A recent local poll released on 14 January showed that President Yoon’s approval rating surged to 46.6%.
- President Yoon released a letter to the Korean people. The heart of the letter is about the rampant election fraud in Korea and the desperate need to restore election integrity.
5. Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)
- Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
- Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
- This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.
6. Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0
- We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
- Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
- Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.
7. Headwinds, Tailwinds in 2025
- This year overweight US dollar, underweight European, Malaysian, Korean and Indonesian sovereign bonds. In 2024 68.9% of our 43 investment recommendation and forecasts made money.
- The key headwinds are dollar strength , Trump’s trade war, the slower monetary policy easing, China, Europe and US valuations.
- Tailwinds include, the strength of the US economy, Trump’s pro-business domestic policy agenda, tame energy prices, India, conflict resolutions and a lighter global election cycle.
8. The Launch of the KRX TMI (Total Market Index) – Korea’s TOPIX Index
- Korea Exchange disclosed the new KRX TMI (Total Market Index) on 13 January. This is a market index that consists of eligible stocks in the entire KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.
- The KRX TMI index is similar to Japan’s TOPIX index. The KRX TMI index is calculated by adopting a free-float market capitalization weighting method.
- We provide a list of 20 companies in KOSDAQ that could benefit from the launch of the KRX TMI index.
9. 69.8% Of Our 2024 Calls Made Money
- We are optimistic about the outlook for global growth and markets in 2025, despite anticipating turbulence driven by Trump’s policies. Stay overweight US markets, US dollar and Bitcoin. Underweight China.
- Our differentiated business cycle framework investing worked. Of the 43 calls made, on global markets and eleven countries/regions, 69.8% were accurate+ in 2024.
- We predicted the US soft landing , Trump’s re-election, a strong dollar, the US & bitcoin rallies, the European slowdown and TAIX outperformance.
10. Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?
- The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
- The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
- Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. NVIDIA @ CES 2025. Forget The AIPC, We’ve Got A Supercomputer PC!
- Project Digits is a supercomputer on everybody’s desk for $3000. Seems crazy but feels like 1977 Ken Olson moment “no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Lack of data center revenue growth predictions likely spooked investors and triggered a ~10% pullback. Just buy the dip, you know you want to…
- Micron and MediaTek both jumped on news of their further involvement in NVIDIA’s AI acceleration hardware supply chain.
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.
- After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.
- TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
- TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025.
3. 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook
- Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.
- This last year was the year of AI through and through.
- There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.
4. Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales
- Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
- The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
- Intel’s performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23.
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix’s HBM Win
- Latest TSMC Price Hike — Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
- Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC’s Largest Customer in 2025E
- SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings
6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
- We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.
- It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.
7. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)
- Considering of current financial outcome of Intel Corp (INTC US), we cannot but favor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).
- Currently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to Intel Corp (INTC US).
- The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
- We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case and LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case.
- We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.
2. Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?
- Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.
- I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.
- I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.
3. Bloks Group IPO – Outgrowing Its Peers, Decent Valuation
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
- In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.
4. Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life
- 2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
- We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
- For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.
5. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
6. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
7. CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required
- CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
8. Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$150m via selling around 3% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
- WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
9. Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Aye FInance Ltd (1239156D IN) (AFL) is looking to raise about US$171m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, JM Fin, Nuvama.
- AFL is a non-banking financial company – middle layer (NBFC-ML) that focuses on providing loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across India.
- According to CRISIL Report, AFL is recognized as the fastest-growing NBFC in India among its peers with YoY AUM growth between FY24 and FY23, achieving a growth rate of 64%.
10. Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Showing Some Recent Weakness in Margins
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss its refiling updates.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$2bn.
- In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
- There will be no Fast Entry in any indices but there will be index inclusions in multiple indices if the raise is larger or once the cornerstone investor lock-up ends.
2. Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet
- The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
- There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
- If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.
3. 7&I (3382 JP) – Dippity Doo Dah – Irrational Fears, Earnings Vol, But Restructuring Proceeding Apace
- Recent news on the Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) situation includes better-than-expected possible sale of the SST business, a little headline fear-mongering on national security, and earnings.
- Earnings this year will be volatile vs expectations. Timing (and magnitude) of kitchen-sinking matters. But neither ACT nor you should be buying it based on trough earnings expectations.
- The call transcript is worth listening to. The math on the takeover maths well. This is a buy on dip. Again.
4. HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade
- The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 31 December.
- There could be one constituent change in March. With capping changes, that could lead to a one-way turnover of 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.88bn (US$884m).
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is also a potential inclusion to the HSCI Index in March, though inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only come through in May.
5. Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
- SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
- Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
- Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.
6. S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger
- Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March.
- Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
- Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.
7. HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025
- We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
- There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
- There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.
8. Fujitsu General (6755) – Long Sale Process Finally Over. Unexciting but Uncomplicated Deal.
- In December 2019, an article in slightly odd Japanese business magazine Sentaku (選択) suggested Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) would imminently seek to address dual listings of subs.
- Some subs went early. The auction for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) started spring 2023, failed, started again, failed again, and the shares languished.
- Two years later we have a deal. Large privately-held company Paloma-Rheem Holdings is the buyer in a split-price deal which comes at a decent but not exorbitant premium.
9. Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
- The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
- There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.
10. NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Yuuge Flow & Impact; Positioning Mixed
- Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) should replace Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) and Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March.
- Passive NIFTY Index trackers will need to trade at least 4.5x ADV and 8.8x delivery volume on the stocks. There is some opposite flow from Nifty Next 50 Index trackers.
- There does not appear to be a lot of positioning in Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Global Rates: European rates market update
- Market conditions have shifted with increased rates against reduced liquidity, leading to recent sell-offs.
- Despite market noise and uncertainty, the outlook remains constructive on intra-EMU spreads and Euro Area government bond supply for 2025.
- The UK market has seen significant sell-offs in 10-year gilt yields, influenced by fiscal policies and US market dynamics, with expectations of further easing by the Bank of England.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
2. Steno Signals #179: A handful of trades for 2025
- Happy Sunday, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro markets.
- In full transparency, we’ve been a few weeks early on our bet for lower bond yields, which slightly wrongfooted our risk asset view heading into Christmas—after being on a remarkable roll for several months.
- We remain puzzled by the resilience of bond yields (and the USD) despite softer economic surprises and flattening inflation expectations.
3. The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?
- Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.
- The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.
- In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
4. Trump’s Messy Governing Challenges
- We reiterate our belief that in the absence of a recession the S&P 500 should register low single-digit gains for 2025.
- However, the emergence of policy implementation risk by the incoming Trump Administration makes us believe the market will experience several volatility shocks during the year.
- Be prepared for a choppy but mildly positive year for stock prices in 2025.
5. Another Way to Skin a Cat?
- Although data interpolation has a long history, the various linear and nonlinear techniques have pros and cons
- I introduce a hybrid technique to interpolate monthly US inflation-adjusted GDP going back to 1947
- My monthly GDP nowcast through November seems consistent with some growth moderation on a three-month and six-month basis
6. CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy – Parting Clouds
- The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place.
- GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects.
- Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.
7. CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin
- We look at the major themes and challenges for listed tech stocks in Southeast Asia including Sea Ltd, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, Grab Holdings, Global Digital Niaga (BELI), and Bukalapak.
- Profitability remains the key quest all in 2025, with only Sea Ltd achieving this in a true and sustainable manner, with Grab moving closer ahead of GoTo, BELI, and BUKA.
- Increasing take rates through seizing more of the value chain in logistics and advertising is another trend, with Fintech a core focus in shifting the needle on profitability and cross-selling
8. Korea Value Up Index: Winners and Losers in 2025 YTD
- In this insight, we discuss the details of the share price performances of the Korea Value Up Index (especially among the index constituents) this year.
- It appears that many traders are buying beaten up, higher beta stocks in Korea that were excessively pushed to much lower levels last year.
- Among the top 20 best performing stocks in the Korea Value Up Index this year, 15 of them (75% of the top 20 stocks) are listed on KOSDAQ.
9. 5 Major Potential Policy Changes in the Korean Stock Market Pushed by the FSC in 2025
- On 8 January, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced 5 major potential policy changes in the Korean stocks market which could get implemented in 2025.
- The mandatory lock-up periods for the institutional investors could result in the institutional investors that are active in Korean IPOs to reassess their trading strategies on newly offered issues.
- Choi Sang-Mok was the most important government official spearheading the numerous financial reforms in Korea. Now that he is the acting President, he is likely to accelerate these financial reforms.
10. 2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2
- Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets
- Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity
- China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)
- Intel Corp (INTC US) established “Intel Foundry Services” in 2021, but it has not shown notable performance until now.
- There is some pessimism regarding providing foundry services in the US.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) should provide foundry services to Intel Corp (INTC US) and potentially other common clients as well.
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount
- TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated
- UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling
- ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long
3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of “Qualcomm Killer”‘; TSMC on Track in Arizona
- Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? — Talk of a “Qualcomm Killer”
- Hon Hai in the New York Times — Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas & Thailand
- TSMC’s Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E — Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That’s Okay
4. Silicon Motion: NAND Controller Leader; Positioned for a Transformative 2025E; Structural Long
- We engaged with the company recently — SIMO remains in a strong position to capitalize on global increased need for high-end NAND memory controllers across mobiles, PCs, and enterprise AI.
- SIMO’s strong positioning in the Client SSD market and its technology leadership in PCIe 5 SSD and MonTitan solutions provide significant growth opportunities into 2025E and beyond.
- Reiterate Structural Long. Given the company’s net cash balance sheet, depressed market price, and multi-year growth outlook, in our view a share buyback program would be accretive to shareholder value.
5. Diversity’s Dividend: ESG Insights on Retention in SGX-Listed Companies
- Board Gender Diversity and Turnover: Companies with higher female representation on boards exhibit lower employee turnover rates, indicating that diversity in leadership fosters a more cohesive and inclusive workplace culture.
- Female Workforce Representation: While female workforce representation correlates with higher turnover in non-real estate sectors, the Real Estate sector benefits from slightly improved retention with greater gender diversity.
- For SGX-listed companies, enhancing gender diversity and leveraging board experience present opportunities to drive both social and financial performance.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Bloks Group IPO (0325.HK): Global Offering, The Initial Price Range Is Seen As Attractively Valued
- Shanghai-Based Bloks Group, a leader of assembly character toys in China, has announced the initial price range for its IPO in Hong Kong.
- The offering is expected to be between HK$55.65 and HK$60.35, implying a market cap of ~HK$14B or ~$1.8B at the midpoint of the price range.
- Assuming IPO offer price of HK$58.00, UBS AM Singapore, Greenwoods AM and Fullgoal Investors have agreed to invest ~HK$388M or ~$50M in the offering.
2. Pre-IPO Bloks Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- The assembly character toy segment market size is not big and Bloks is already China’s largest player. So, there will be a day when the growth ceiling is reached.
- Bloks’ business model is more similar to Pop Mart, rather than LEGO, but Bloks’ profitability is lagging behind both of them. The current high revenue growth may not be sustainable.
- Pre-IPO valuation of Bloks reached RMB7.2 billion. Valuation of Bloks should be lower than Pop Mart. If Bloks’ valuation could reach the industry average after IPO, it is already good.
3. Bloks Group IPO – PHIP Updates – Momentum Remains Strong, Although Some Lingering Doubts Persist
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$188m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
- In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss the latest PHIP updates.
4. Didi Global Q324 Results & Two Key Reasons Company May Consider A New Listing in 2025
- In Q324, Didi grew slowly, but core margin improved significantly on higher “take rate”
- Q324 liquidity position sound, but pace of 2024 investment difficult to sustain
- Two important reasons Didi could list shares in ’25, even if cash needs aren’t urgent
5. S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Here’s Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So “Boring”
- The Time-definite express services are actually a double-edged sword for S.F.- Although it helps S.F. establish core competitiveness, such strategy limits the Company’s market share and growth ceiling in China.
- The issue here is that S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks, but due to its heavy asset model, the only truly suitable solution is internationalization, which however is full of uncertainties.
- S.F. is facing many challenges. The IPO final offer price of HK$34.3 is expensive, which might explain why S.F.’s share price has been a bit “boring” since its listing.
6. LG CNS: Updated IPO Valuation Analysis
- According to our updated valuation analysis of LG CNS, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.4 trillion won, representing target price of 76,383 won per share.
- Our base case valuation target price of 76,383 won is 23% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- We lowered our target price by 6%, mainly due to greater political risks arising from the recent cancelled martial law and ongoing impeachment of President Yoon.
7. LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
- In LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on fading growth momentum, mid-tier revenue growth, weak non-AI growth, high contract assets, bottom-tier FCF margin and large share overhang.
8. Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma – The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential
- Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.
- The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion.
- Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets.
9. Orum Therapeutics Lowers IPO Price Range
- Orum Therapeutics (475830 KS) has lowered its IPO price range to 24,000 won to 30,000 won.
- The IPO offering amount will be between 60 billion won to 75 billion won. The expected market cap of the IPO is between 531 billion won to 664 billion won.
- Our updated valuation of Orum Therapeutics suggests implied target price of 24,939 won per share, which is 8% lower than the mid-point of the revised down IPO price range.
10. Initial Thoughts on the DN Solutions IPO
- DN Solutions is planning to complete its IPO in Korea in 2025. The expected value of DN Solutions is estimated to be about 5 trillion won to 6 trillion won.
- DN Solutions’ revenue and operating profit increased at CAGR of 19.9% and 62.2%, respectively from 2020 to 2023.
- Currently, the largest shareholder of DN Solutions is GMT Holdings which has a 90.32% stake. DN Automotive (007340 KS) owns a 100% stake in GMT Holdings.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?
- In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.
- On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.
- The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.
2. HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Increase in Velocity Could Lead to 3 Changes in March
- BeiGene and ZTO Express Cayman are potential inclusions for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in March while Sino Biopharmaceutical and Li Ning are potential deletions.
- There is a lower probability of Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) replacing Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) in the index in March.
- There could be a few more index inclusions for ZTO Express Cayman in March and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.
3. ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)
- ITC Ltd (ITC IN) will demerge its Hotels business with the ex-date set as 6 January and shareholders receiving 1 share of ITC Hotels for 10 shares of ITC Ltd.
- ITC Ltd (ITC IN) shareholders will own 100% of ITC Hotels – 60% will be owned directly and 40% will be owned through their shareholding in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).
- There will be a lot of selling in ITC Hotels within a few days of listing from different passive index trackers and that could provide buying opportunities for those interested.
4. Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38
- HK$1.38/Share. That’s the takeaway as Alibaba Group (9988 HK) enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 44.4% discount to last close.
- The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA’s HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020.
- Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered. Minorities tendering can receive up to HK$1.58/share. But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price?
5. Australia: Six Stocks in Passive Selling Crosshairs for February
- Up to six Aussie stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The final list of deletions depends on stock performance over the next 2-3 weeks.
- If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between A$370m-A$500m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-24 days of ADV.
- The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Positioning is still low in a few stocks.
6. InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$30.86/share, the low end of the range. Over half the shares have been allotted to cornerstone investors.
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect early March.
- Inclusion in global indices will take place in 2026 and there will be supply in mid- and late-2025 following lock-up expiries.
7. Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN): Facing the Passive Boot; But Who Will Buy?
- Passive global index trackers sold Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) in November following a big drop in free float for the stock.
- There could be more selling in Adani Green Energy in February as the stock is deleted from the same large global index due to failing free float market cap thresholds.
- With the company at the center of the U.S indictment focused on bribery charges, active foreign and local investors will be wary of buying the stock.
8. NZ: Contact Energy (CEN NZ) Hotter Than Mercury (MCY NZ) As Catalyst Looms
- Contact Energy (CEN NZ) has outperformed Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) over the last month off the back of expected passive flows in February.
- Despite the outperformance, Contact Energy (CEN NZ) trades at a lower forward PE compared to Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ), though it does trade at a higher Price to Book.
- There could be large passive inflows to Contact Energy (CEN NZ) and large passive outflows from Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) in February.
9. Merger Arb Mondays (30 Dec) – ESR, Canvest, Vesync, GAPack, SDHS New Energy, CPMC, Makino, Arcadium
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Vesync (2148 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Latin Resources (LRS AU), Lac Co Ltd (3857 JP).
10. Canvest (1381 HK): Attractive Spread with Steady Progress in Precondition Satisfaction
- Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) continues to make steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its HK$4.90 privatisation offer for Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK).
- Two of the five preconditions are satisfied, and another will be satisfied by 20 January. The long stop date of 17 July provides ample time to satisfy the remaining two.
- Although the peers have materially re-rated, the offer implies a premium compared to peer multiples. Vote risk remains low, aided by selling by a shareholder with a blocking stake.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. The 10 Most Interesting Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2024
- Private credit is transforming the world of debt, creating concerns for investors and the broader economy
- Chicken wing prices are volatile due to the poultry industry focusing on breast meat demand, making wings a fall-off product
- Companies like Elf Bar evade FDA regulation by flooding the market with products and rebranding under different names
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
2. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)
- Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.
- About 80% of the portfolio’s excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.
- At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and Weibo (9898 HK) .
3. 2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?
- Hello everyone—we hope you enjoyed the holiday season and had a wonderful Christmas.
- The festive season has been relatively quiet macro-wise, with only a few comments from the PBoC and BoJ.
- However, markets seem unwilling to move until there is news on the USD front, which has been driving almost all assets since December.
4. Steno Signals #178 – Brace yourselves, liquidity is coming!
- Happy New Year, friends, and welcome back to the Steno Signals editorials! My apologies for the silence over the past few days—I celebrated New Year’s Eve (and my 35th birthday) battling a nasty pneumonia, which has taken some time to recover from.
- Thankfully, I am finally better and wanted to share my 2025 thoughts on liquidity with you, as I find myself disagreeing quite a bit with the current semi-bearish consensus.
- We experienced an almost equally “tight” year-end as the tight quarter-end back in September.
5. Surging Share Buybacks in Korea in 2024
- Capitalizing on the lower share prices combined with the government’s pressure for Corporate Value up improvements, the share buybacks surged in Korea in 2024.
- As of 27 December 2024, the total treasury shares planned acquisition amount by Korean companies increased by 215% YoY to 11.83 trillion won in 2024.
- There have been some mixed share price performances among the companies announcing meaningful share buyback/cancellation announcements this year.
6. Contrarian Bargains Among Santa’s Discards
- The stock market is likely to advance during the Santa Claus rally window, which began on December 24 and ends January 3.
- But the rally is attributed to an oversold bounce and marked by narrow leadership. Either the rebound fizzles in January or broadens into lagging issues.
- We identified selected contrarian value opportunities for bulls among Santa’s discards for potential outperformance into January and beyond.
7. Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Stock Positioning Update
- Top holdings remain unchanged: TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Tencent are almost universally owned. TSMC hits record weights but active funds sell into strength as benchmark weights surpass 10%
- Hon Hai, Hyundai Motor, and Singtel lead recoveries from prolonged declines. Baidu Inc. and Kweichow Moutai see sharp ownership drops.
- Momentum leaders include Accton Technology, CATL, and KE Holdings. By contrast, Axis Bank, PDD, and Reliance face stalling ownership.
8. Estimating Downside Risk
- The U.S. equity is highly vulnerable because of overvaluation and excessive growth expectations, but valuation is not very predictive of returns over a one-year time horizon.
- We estimate downside risk on the S&P 500 in the 20–30% range in the event of a major bear market.
- Despite our concerns, we see no immediate bearish triggers for investors to adopt defensive positioning in their portfolios.
9. Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Country Positioning Update
- China dominates allocations, India and Taiwan are equal 2nd, while South Korea lags a further 7% behind after seeing a big drop in exposure.
- Indonesia leads the ASEAN region, emerging as the top overweight country as a record 79.8% of funds are ahead of the benchmark.
- India sees 62% underweight the benchmark. Vietnam hits new highs in average fund weight (0.97%) and fund participation (34%).
10. End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 57 Companies in Korea in January 2025
- We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 57 stocks in Korea in January 2025, among which four are in KOSPI and 53 are in KOSDAQ.
- The ban on short selling of Korean stocks which is still in place is likely to be lifted on 31 March 2025.
- Some of the companies mentioned in this insight which highlights the end of the major lockup periods could help to narrow down the list of candidates for potential shorting.
Entity | Insights | Analytics | News | Discussion | Filings | Reports |