Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Cho Hyun-Sik has joined hands with MBK Partners to make a tender offer for shares of Hankook & Co for a minimum of 20.35% and maximum of 27.32% stake.
The tender offer price is 20,000 won which is 18.9% higher than the closing price of 16,820 won on Monday.
Chairman Cho Hyun-Bum may try to find a strategic ally to launch his own tender offer of Hankook & Co shares at even higher tender offer price than 20,000 won.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: October & November 2023

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in October and November 2023.
We provide a list of 24 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in October and November 2023.
The top five market cap stocks that have announced share repurchases include Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, Shinhan Financial, Amore Pacific Corp, and Mirae Asset Securities.

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Dec 05

Daily Brief Singapore: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
Yanlord Land

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Dec 05

Daily Brief Indonesia: Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Truly Omnichannel

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) – Truly Omnichannel

By Angus Mackintosh

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) 3Q2023 represented the progress along the road to profitability with some intentional slowdown in growth as the shape of the 1P business changed composition.
The platform’s 3P business booked vibrant growth driven by ongoing recovery from its OTA business under tiket.com, with the company’s omnichannel business continuing to grow its physical presence.
Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT (BELI IJ) remains a differentiated player in the e-commerce space boosted by tiket.com and its offline presence brought together through its blibli tiket rewards scheme.

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Dec 05

Daily Brief United States: Soybean Active Contract and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

By Pranay Yadav

Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.
Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.
Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook.

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Dec 05

Daily Brief India: NTPC Ltd, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum
Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
Yanlord Land

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Dec 05

Daily Brief China: Weiqiao Textile Co, Great Wall Motor, Fenbi Ltd, Meituan, Luk Fook Holdings Intl, PDD Holdings , Wuxi Biologics, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, REPT BATTERO Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Conditional Privatisation Offer at HK$3.50
A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold
Fenbi (2469 HK): Beneficiary Of A Weak Job Market In China
Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs
Starting to Glitter (Luk Fook Holdings 590.HK)
China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance
Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Lowered 2023 Revenue Expectation Amid Challenging Industry Outlook
Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals
REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Leaning on ESS

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK): Pre-Conditional Privatisation Offer at HK$3.50

By Arun George

Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Weiqiao Chuangye at HK$3.50 per H Share, a 104.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The pre-condition of regulatory approvals from the NDRC, MOC and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection).
The offer price is final. Despite the premium, the offer is struck materially below net cash. Nevertheless, the irrevocable from the largest H Shareholder should help the offer get up.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 220+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -244bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net buys overall but Hs had a VERY BAD WEEK vs their A-Shares where pairs were concerned.

Fenbi (2469 HK): Beneficiary Of A Weak Job Market In China

By Steve Zhou, CFA

According to China state media reports, a record number of more than 3 million people attended China’s annual civil service exam last weekend, up from 2.6 million last year.
A civil servant job is viewed in China as highly stable. In the current weak macro environment where youth unemployment is high, job security is increasingly vital.
The company now trades at 18x forward earnings, with around 30% expected earnings growth.

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption

By David Blennerhassett

After shares were suspended on the 27 November, Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) has now announced a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$3.50 per H-share.
This Offer, from its parent, is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which incorporates a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.
The Offer Price is a premium to last close is a hefty 104.68%. and around a six-year high. This is done.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week saw reversion.
SOUTHBOUND saw net buys of HK$3.5bn this week, breaking a nascent sell streak. Meituan dip-buying Wednesday to Friday was worth the entire net buy.
High-Div SOEs remain mixed. CNOOC (883) saw decent net buying, and China Mobile saw decent net selling. Again.

Starting to Glitter (Luk Fook Holdings 590.HK)

By Rikki Malik

Stock price starting to recognise the increase in Chinese demand for Gold.
Helped by a bottoming and a revival in Hong Kong retail sales and tourist arrivals.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) close to a new all time high

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

By Ming Lu

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.
Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.
ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Lowered 2023 Revenue Expectation Amid Challenging Industry Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has guided for weaker-than-expected revenue and lower profit in 2023, as the operating industry is facing near-term challenges due to biotech funding slowdown.
$300 million lesser revenue in development business due to reduced number of projects and manufacturing revenue deficit of $100 million due to CMO deferral contributed to the miss.
Following the announcement, Wuxi Biologics shares nosedived 24% on HK stock exchanges, marking its biggest one-day slide since listing in 2017.

Asian E-Comm Logistics | Review of 2023 ECM and M&A Activity | Preview of 2024 Deals

By Daniel Hellberg

In this insight we review important e-comm logistics transactions from 2023
We also provide a preview of potential e-comm logistics deals in 2024
Interested readers can also find links to HKEX filings and our earlier insights

REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Leaning on ESS

By Sumeet Singh

REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT HK) is now looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, down from the US$1bn it was aiming for earlier.
REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT) is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of EV/ESS lithium-ion battery products such as battery cells, modules and packs.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

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Dec 05

Daily Brief Japan: Benefit One Inc, Nexon, Seven & I Holdings, Sanyo Trading, LaKeel and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
Korean Government Launches a Tender Offer to Sell a 29.3% Stake in NXC Corp for US$3.6 Billion
Seven & I Ventures Down Under with 7-Eleven Australia Acquisition
Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Aiming to Elevate to a Higher-Quality Business
LaKeel (4074 JP) – Highlighting Opportunities and Acknowledging Challenges

Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Since the announcement of the Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) partial offer, the stock has traded 16+mm shares in the market, which is about 40% of Real World Float.
Some of that has been traded multiple times. Looking only at that data would suggest a higher pro-ration, but I expect there is other data one must take into account.
Benefit One shares are currently trading at a level suggesting either lower participation OR higher back-end despite the earnings guidance downgrade at announcement.

Korean Government Launches a Tender Offer to Sell a 29.3% Stake in NXC Corp for US$3.6 Billion

On 4 December, the South Korean government announced that it will launch a tender offer to sell a 29.3% stake in NXC Corp for about US$3.6 billion.
The two daughters of ex-Chairman Kim Jung-Ju handed over a 29.3% stake in NXC Corp to the Korean government as payment-in-kind in May 2023 to pay for inheritance taxes.
The tender offer sale of the Korean government’s 29.3% stake in NXC Corp (worth nearly 4.7 trillion won) is a positive catalyst for Nexon (3659 JP).

Seven & I Ventures Down Under with 7-Eleven Australia Acquisition

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) announced last week that it had agreed to buy the 7-Eleven convenience store chain in Australia for A$1.71bn ($1.1bn).
The acquisition may not immediately impact Seven & I’s stock price like Speedway did, given its smaller scale, lack of synergies, and less favorable macroeconomic conditions.
The main positive takeaway from this news is that the acquisition price for 7-Eleven Australia is not as extravagant as the amount Seven & I paid for the Speedway acquisition.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Aiming to Elevate to a Higher-Quality Business

By Astris Advisory Japan

Business investment and targeting growth – we view Sanyo Trading’s new long-term plan as a step in the right direction for the company to become a higher-quality business.
Whilst investment activities and macro headwinds may limit short-term growth prospects, the company has indicated ¥20bn to ¥30bn 5-year cumulative allocation in human capital, DX implementation, and M&A, which should drive transformation into a more diversified and resilient business.
This commitment by management demonstrates its aim to drive higher returns by leveraging its core strengths of product differentiation, strong technical staff, and maintaining high customer success in new products and activities.

LaKeel (4074 JP) – Highlighting Opportunities and Acknowledging Challenges

By Astris Advisory Japan

Results highlighting both strengths and limitations – Q1-3 FY12/2023 results were below expectations, with the company experiencing a delay and potential cancellation of a large license sale, which had a negative knock-on effect on related Consulting demand.
FY12/2023 company guidance has been revised to reflect lowered earnings visibility.
Although this highlights the need for the company to strengthen business model resilience, growth in DX-related in-house LaKeel Products remained stable with sales up 19.3% YoY.

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Dec 05

Most Read: Fast Retailing, Uber Technologies , Samsung KODEX Top5Plus Total Return ETF, Benefit One Inc, Helia Group , Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd., Gentrack, NTPC Ltd, Nexon, Great Wall Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade
S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
Investigating Arbitrage Trading Potential to Exploit ETF Tracking Error Widening in Korea
Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover
S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum
Korean Government Launches a Tender Offer to Sell a 29.3% Stake in NXC Corp for US$3.6 Billion
A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

Minimal changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) AND funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983) to consider. We are right on the threshold. The question is whether it gets “help” in January.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

Uber Technologies (UBER US), Jabil Circuit (JBL US) and Builders Firstsource (BLDR US) will be added to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 15 December.
There are a bunch of inclusions. deletions and migrations across the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of Uber Technologies (UBER US). There has been positioning in the stock for just over a month now.

Investigating Arbitrage Trading Potential to Exploit ETF Tracking Error Widening in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s financial authorities prompted LPs to refrain from providing liquidity to ETFs through short-selling. This has resulted in a significant increase in both the frequency and magnitude of tracking errors.
Therefore, it’s time to actively explore this from an arbitrage trading standpoint. ETF arbitrage involves straightforward steps: purchasing and redeeming ETFs, followed by selling the underlying shares in the market.
The focus should be particularly directed towards sector ETFs that include a select few large-cap stocks carrying single-stock futures.

Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

Since the announcement of the Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) partial offer, the stock has traded 16+mm shares in the market, which is about 40% of Real World Float.
Some of that has been traded multiple times. Looking only at that data would suggest a higher pro-ration, but I expect there is other data one must take into account.
Benefit One shares are currently trading at a level suggesting either lower participation OR higher back-end despite the earnings guidance downgrade at announcement.

S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough

There are 3 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 15 December. One name is a relative surprise.
There will be 8-15 days of ADV to buy on the inclusions and there will be 12-18 days of ADV to sell on the deletions.
Cumulative excess volume and changes in short interest indicate there will be positioning in most stocks. But it may not yet be enough to cover the passive trade.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover

There are 5 adds and 4 deletes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December with implementation taking place from 15-21 December.
The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 16.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.26bn.
There will be positioning in a lot of the adds/deletes and the real action could be in the other stocks with capping and/or funding flows.

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.

Korean Government Launches a Tender Offer to Sell a 29.3% Stake in NXC Corp for US$3.6 Billion

On 4 December, the South Korean government announced that it will launch a tender offer to sell a 29.3% stake in NXC Corp for about US$3.6 billion.
The two daughters of ex-Chairman Kim Jung-Ju handed over a 29.3% stake in NXC Corp to the Korean government as payment-in-kind in May 2023 to pay for inheritance taxes.
The tender offer sale of the Korean government’s 29.3% stake in NXC Corp (worth nearly 4.7 trillion won) is a positive catalyst for Nexon (3659 JP).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 220+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -244bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net buys overall but Hs had a VERY BAD WEEK vs their A-Shares where pairs were concerned.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Northbound Flows (Dec 1st): Hygon Information and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Northbound Flows (Dec 1st): Hygon Information, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD
A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 1st): CMB, Ping An Insurance, Beigene, Ganfeng Lithium
Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 1st): Meituan, Tencent
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 1st): TSMC, Mediatek, Umc
HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng, Xiaomi, Link Reit
Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Five Months of Inflows Despite New Low

Northbound Flows (Dec 1st): Hygon Information, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD

We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 1st.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$359.9 million, led by information technology, health care, utilities sectors, and offset by financials, materials.
We highlight flows for Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD, CMB, Wuliangye, Midea, CATL.

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 1st): CMB, Ping An Insurance, Beigene, Ganfeng Lithium

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.1% as of Dec 1st.
The average A-H premium changed by 4.7ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, utilities, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, Ping An Insurance, Beigene, Ganfeng Lithium.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 1st): Meituan, Tencent

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight weekly Hongkong connect flows for Meituan and Tencent.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 1st): TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 1st which has an aggregated holding worth USD684.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,077mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Umc.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Xpeng, Xiaomi, Link Reit

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 24th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Xpeng, Xiaomi and Link Reit.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Five Months of Inflows Despite New Low