Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO.
Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection).
The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics

I tally 52 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal discussed this week: Public Storage (PSA US)‘s NBIO, by way of a Scheme, for Abacus Storage King (ASK AU).
Key updates/news took place on Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Canvest Environmental (1381 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

James Hardie (JHX AU)‘s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a “bad” deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
The Biden Administration’s USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.

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Apr 13

Daily Brief Macro: Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

By Rikki Malik

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The new Trump Administration’s “plan” for China is becoming clearer
What’s next for markets after the tumultuous events of the last week

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 13

Daily Brief Australia: James Hardie Industries Plc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

James Hardie (JHX AU)‘s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a “bad” deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
The Biden Administration’s USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 13

Daily Brief South Korea: Ecopro BM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis (Which Stocks Are the Gainers and the Losers?)

By Douglas Kim

We provide the short selling data analysis of the Korean stock market including the top 20 stocks in KOSPI with the highest short interest ratios in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively.
There have been noticeable shorting on the Ecopro Group companies and other key names in the rechargeable battery sector including Posco Future M, L&F, and SK IE Technology.
Shorting has generally worked for KOSDAQ names with higher short interest ratios but not for KOSPI names in the past two weeks.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 13

Daily Brief China: Shandong Fengxiang, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00
HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus
HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Preconditional Privatisation Offer at HK$2.00

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) has disclosed a preconditional privatisation offer from PAG, the controlling shareholder, at HK$2.00 per H share, a 33.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals. The key conditions for the privatisation will be approval by at least 75% independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection).
The shareholders with blocking stakes which have not provided irrevocables will likely be supportive as the offer is reasonable and there is a potential scrip alternative.

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus

Brutal start to the week, with the holiday-shortened calendar and continued global weakness weighing on Monday’s open.
Implied vol surged early, with skew steepening and tail demand reflected in out-of-the-money Put pricing
We highlight significant activity at the 8,000 strike and its implications for near-term spot and vol dynamics.

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Shifts and Early Signs of USD Toxicity

A volatile week for HSI, with sharp moves in price, volume, and implied volatility concentrated around Monday’s gap lower.
We discuss the shift in spot-vol dynamics and how it may influence short-term vol trading.
Changes in open interest and vol structure are examined in the context of ongoing global tensions.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Apr 07–11): Vol Spikes, Breadth Cracks & ETF Activity Surges

A challenging week for HK single stocks, with weak breadth and sharp losses punctuated by a gap lower to start the week.
Monday marked the highest options volume day of the year, with a spike in the Put/Call ratio and unusual ETF option activity.
Implied vols surged, with the average implied vol percentile at very elevated levels.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Apr 13

Daily Brief United States: S&P 500 INDEX, MNTN and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE
MNTN IPO Preview: Fidelity-Backed Category Creator of Performance TV, Watch This Offering Closely

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.
The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any, historical parallels.
With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.

MNTN IPO Preview: Fidelity-Backed Category Creator of Performance TV, Watch This Offering Closely

By Andrei Zakharov

MNTN, Inc. (pronounced “mountain”), leader in OTT advertising software and first mover of PTV in the United States, filed to go public.
Founder-Led adtech company was backed by Fidelity, BlackRock, Greycroft, SV Angel, Qualcomm Ventures, and Baroda Ventures, among others.
I like the company’s leadership position, high growth, FCF positive business and $60B+ near-term market opportunity centering around SMBs in the United States.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 13

Daily Brief Japan: Tsuruha Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, JX Advanced Metals, Meitetsu Transport, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)
Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Salonpas Holds Fort; New Products Ramp-Up; Stable FY26 Expected
Effectiveness of MBO Special Committee Is Linked to Effectiveness of Independent Directors

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO.
Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Abacus Storage, Gold Road, Mayne Pharma, Canvest, ESR, Shibaura Electronics