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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ESG: The Objective of an MBO Is Not to Strip Bothersome Activist Investors of Their Equity Interests and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Objective of an MBO Is Not to Strip Bothersome Activist Investors of Their Equity Interests


The Objective of an MBO Is Not to Strip Bothersome Activist Investors of Their Equity Interests

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Rather than “management with awareness of stock price,” the question is whether management is carrying out its duties toward “the goal of increasing shareholder interests,” to put it more accurately.
  • In determining TOB price, the question is whether independent committee was established, whether that committee actually functioned, and whether the directors performed their duties in the best interests of shareholders.
  • The real objective of an MBO is to restart the company for a sustainable expansion of corporate value, not to rip off the equity stake of a bothersome activist investor.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Topix +25% for the Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Topix +25% for the Year
  • China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend


Japan Weekly | Topix +25% for the Year

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Performance: Topix achieved a third consecutive weekly gain, rising by +1.3% to close at 2,366. Defensive sectors, particularly healthcare, telecoms, and utilities, outperformed
  • Stock Highlights: Nihon Kohden emerged as the top performer with a +19% gain, fuelled by ValueAct Capital Management’s significant shareholding. Conversely, shippers experienced declines.
  • Annual Overview: Topix stood out as one of the best-performing global markets for the year, boasting a remarkable +25% gain. Corporate governance reforms, coupled with yen weakness, were pivotal.

China Precious Metals Buck Weakening Materials Trend

By Steven Holden

  • Rotation in to China Precious Metals stocks pushes ownership to record levels, bucking the trend of overall Materials sector decline.
  • Zijin Mining Group soars to new ownership highs, attracting funds such as RWC, Mirae and TT International over the course of 2023.
  • Second tier stocks showing signs of life, though remain lightly held among investors.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile, IRC, IJTT, JSR, Shinko Electric, Hollysys, OreCorp
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric


Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile, IRC, IJTT, JSR, Shinko Electric, Hollysys, OreCorp

By Arun George


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
  • Lifenet: Oasis Management Is Now Another Major Shareholder Besides Effissimo
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI
  • Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
  • Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth – Are They the New Tech Leaders? – Major Drivers
  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Heads up for 3Q Results in Late January
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.31)-New Medical Device Policy, AstraZeneca to Acquire Gracell, PD-1+ADC
  • Alteryx Inc.: Leading the AI Revolution – Can They Sustain the Momentum? – Major Drivers
  • Alibaba Group Holding Limited: Can Their Upgraded AI Model To Challenge Microsoft & Amazon? – Major Drivers


Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Long Nvidia vs. Short Basket of Taiwan AI Concept Stocks — The trade has held steady since our last piece with Nvidia outperforming the shorts slightly.
  • CES 2024 will be held January 9th to 12th. It will showcase AI expanding into a wide range of Edge AI applications such as home appliances and PCs.
  • One can maintain the L/S trade into CES 2024 given that the Taiwan AI Short Basket constituents are unlikely to be beneficiaries of positive news flow from the event.

Lifenet: Oasis Management Is Now Another Major Shareholder Besides Effissimo

By Alec Tseung

  • Oasis Management has become a major shareholder in Lifenet in November. Together with another activist investor, Effissimo Capital (the largest shareholder), they now control >30% of the company.
  • Company announced some new partnerships/initiatives to drive growth but they don’t seem to be materially different from what it has been doing to turn around its declining VoNB.
  • Unless we can see a sustained trend of improving VoNB, it’s difficult to justify the premium valuation vs. the other more established peer.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 9.2% Premium — Spread Fell But Remains Historically High; Short Interest Spiked for ADRs
  • UMC: Trading at -1.2% Discount — Still Uncompelling, Wait for Lower Levels
  • ASE: Drops to 7% Premium — Could Soon Be at a Level to Go Long

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
  • Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
  • AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Recent results from Micron and SK Hynix did not only signal a recovery for DRAM but also for NAND flash memory. Micron expects improving NAND pricing through CY2025E.
  • Latest data shows a surge in NAND pricing — 512GB NAND pricing is now up 116% from its 2023 lows.
  • Silicon Motion shares are down 5% over the last year. They have been weighed down by their terminated acquisition by MaxLinear, but now could offer a laggard play.

Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth – Are They the New Tech Leaders? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marvell Technology managed to surpass Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, achieving a commendable revenue of $1.42 billion, marking a 6% sequential growth above the midpoint of the provided guidance.
  • The data center end market witnessed revenue of $556 million in the third quarter, surpassing expectations, mainly driven by robust AI revenue.
  • Despite the anticipated decline in enterprise on-premise revenue, Marvell’s diverse product portfolio, including PAM4 optical products and Teralynx Ethernet switches, contributed to the broad-based growth.

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Heads up for 3Q Results in Late January

By Scott Foster

  • The gradual upward trend in monthly sales, which has continued through November, has further to go in our estimation. 
  • At 22x EPS guidance for FY Mar-24, the shares are at the low end of their 5-year P/E range.
  • Guidance remains unchanged. 3Q results are due to be announced at the end of January

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.31)-New Medical Device Policy, AstraZeneca to Acquire Gracell, PD-1+ADC

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Ministry of Finance and National Health Commission issued new policy strictly prohibiting public hospitals from borrowing to purchase medical equipment, which will change the investment logic of medical device sector.
  • “PD-1+ADC” is expected to replace “PD-1+chemotherapy” as the first-line standard therapy. This will be a huge market. So, good story of ADC CDMO (such as WuXi XDC) would continue.
  • The inspiration that AstraZeneca’s acquisition of Gracell brings to investors is IPO isn’t the only way for exit.Being acquired is also good, which will become more important in the future.

Alteryx Inc.: Leading the AI Revolution – Can They Sustain the Momentum? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alteryx, Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, demonstrating commendable performance across various fronts.
  • These achievements were propelled by improved sales execution and heightened customer commitment to the Alteryx platform.
  • Alteryx’s Executive License Agreement (ELA) strategy, featuring simplified pricing and bundled features, resonated well with larger organizations.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited: Can Their Upgraded AI Model To Challenge Microsoft & Amazon? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alibaba Group Holding Limited delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • For Taobao and Tmall Group, the emphasis lies on user-centric strategies, universal market coverage, multi-tiered consumer engagement, and maintaining price competitiveness.
  • The Local Services Group concentrates on location-based technology services, with Amap focusing on mobility and Ele.me on-demand services.

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Daily Brief Macro: China Property And The Demand For Commodities Puzzle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Property And The Demand For Commodities Puzzle
  • Saudi Arabia Special Report: A Tipping Point in EM Equity Allocations
  • Riding High: The Magnificent 7 Surge in Global Equity Funds


China Property And The Demand For Commodities Puzzle

By Robert Ciemniak

  • China’s crude steel production data behaved differently in the 2021-2023 downturn relative to new home sales and new starts, compared to the prior cycles.
  • The 40% drop (12M vs prior 12M) at the low point for new starts compares with around 10% for the crude steel.
  • In this note, we outline a few possible explanations, with some twists.

Saudi Arabia Special Report: A Tipping Point in EM Equity Allocations

By Steven Holden

  • 2023 Marks a Pivotal Year with EM Investors Significantly Increasing Holdings in the Saudi Market.
  • Despite Growing Interest, the Saudi Market Still Presents Ample Room for Broader Investor Engagement.
  • Saudi Arabia Remains Comparatively ‘under-Owned’ in Relation to Its Asian and LATAM Peers.

Riding High: The Magnificent 7 Surge in Global Equity Funds

By Steven Holden

  • The Magnificent 7, comprising Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA and Tesla  hit record high allocations among active Global equity funds this year.
  • Thought of as a standalone allocation, they represent the 2nd largest country weight, but also stand as a sizeable underweight versus the benchmark.
  • Microsoft’s dominates the group, NVIDIA has attracted a new investors this year, whilst Tesla has struggled to gain the same level of trust from active Global investors.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Misumi Group, Deere & Co, Emerson Electric Co, Hunt (Jb) Transprt Svcs, Jacobs Solutions , Lyft , Uber Technologies , Cummins Inc, Urban-Gro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Heads up for 3Q Results in Late January
  • Deere & Company: Pricing Strategy & Market Positioning & Other Major Drivers
  • Emerson Electric Co.: Will The NI Acquisition Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services: Will Their New Intermodal Service Revolutionize the Industry? – Major Drivers
  • Jacobs Solutions Inc: 4 Critical Insights From Their Latest Earnings! – Major Drivers
  • Lyft Inc.: Focus on Operational Excellence & Differentiated Products! – Major Drivers
  • Uber Technologies Inc.: Enhancing User Construct – Driving New Audience and Frequency! – Major Drivers
  • Cummins Inc.: Pioneering Telematics Software for Commercial Vehicles & Other Major Drivers – Financial Forecasts
  • UGRO: MJBiz Update: The Metamorphosis Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating & $8 PT


Misumi Group (9962 JP): Heads up for 3Q Results in Late January

By Scott Foster

  • The gradual upward trend in monthly sales, which has continued through November, has further to go in our estimation. 
  • At 22x EPS guidance for FY Mar-24, the shares are at the low end of their 5-year P/E range.
  • Guidance remains unchanged. 3Q results are due to be announced at the end of January

Deere & Company: Pricing Strategy & Market Positioning & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Deere & Co delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, with operating margins nearly reaching 22%, resulting in an impressive operating cash flow of nearly $12 billion.
  • This success was attributed to robust market demand, effective operational execution, and improved production costs across the various business sectors.
  • In small ag and turf, net sales in the fourth quarter were down 13%, totaling $3.094 billion, driven by lower shipment volumes.

Emerson Electric Co.: Will The NI Acquisition Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Emerson Electric’s results were disappointing as they could not meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Operational excellence was evident through the execution of the Emerson management system, driving remarkable results.
  • The underlying sales for 2023 grew by 10%, gross profit expanded by 330 basis points to 49%, and adjusted segment EBITA expanded by 220 basis points to 25%.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services: Will Their New Intermodal Service Revolutionize the Industry? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • J.B.
  • Hunt Transport Services delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Demand is slightly increasing in some end markets, focusing on delivering big and bulky items to customers’ homes.

Jacobs Solutions Inc: 4 Critical Insights From Their Latest Earnings! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Solution Inc. delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent quarter with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Emphasizing the strategic synergies and shared operational benefits, the combination aims to be tax-efficient for Jacobs’ shareholders, with an estimated $13 billion in annual revenue and significant cost synergies.
  • Post-transaction, Jacobs anticipates emerging as a well-capitalized critical infrastructure and sustainability leader, building on the records set in fiscal year 2023 for revenue and free cash flow generation.

Lyft Inc.: Focus on Operational Excellence & Differentiated Products! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft, Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • A pivotal development in the quarter was the significant rise in drivers opting for Lyft, resulting in an impressive 45% year-over-year surge in the hours spent using the platform, particularly in non-incentivized hours.
  • The emphasis on simplifying the earning process for drivers proved successful, maintaining a stable conversion rate even as rider demand escalated.

Uber Technologies Inc.: Enhancing User Construct – Driving New Audience and Frequency! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Uber Technologies delivered a mixed result in the third quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company reported a notable acceleration in year-on-year trip growth, reaching 25% in Q3, surpassing the growth in gross bookings for the third consecutive quarter.
  • Additionally, adjusted EBITDA exceeded Q3 expectations, marking the first instance of the adjusted EBITDA margin surpassing 3%.

Cummins Inc.: Pioneering Telematics Software for Commercial Vehicles & Other Major Drivers – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Cummins delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • Cummins reported strong demand across key markets and regions, with revenues reaching $8.4 billion, a 15% increase from the previous year.
  • In the quarter, Cummins successfully concluded the acquisition of two Faurecia commercial vehicle manufacturing plants in Columbus, Indiana, and Roermond, Netherlands.

UGRO: MJBiz Update: The Metamorphosis Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating & $8 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $8 price target after meeting with urban-gro management at the MJBizCon show in Las Vegas.
  • As such, we remain excited over the potential for urban-gro to continue to materially grow and to begin registering positive EBITDA going forward.
  • As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $8 price target for UGRO.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Marvell Technology , Silicon Motion Technology, Baidu, ARM Holdings, Alteryx Inc, Crowdstrike Holdings , AppLovin and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked
  • Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth – Are They the New Tech Leaders? – Major Drivers
  • Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
  • Baidu Inc.: A Game-Changing Strategy That’s Shaping AI’s Future! – Major Drivers
  • ARM Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage & Post IPO Analysis – A Tech Giant’s New Era or a Risky Bet? – Key Drivers
  • Alteryx Inc.: Leading the AI Revolution – Can They Sustain the Momentum? – Major Drivers
  • CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.: Bringing AI-Native Cybersecurity To SMBs! – Major Drivers
  • AppLovin Corporation: AI-Driven Tech Powering Advertising – A Deep Dive! – Major Drivers


Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Long Nvidia vs. Short Basket of Taiwan AI Concept Stocks — The trade has held steady since our last piece with Nvidia outperforming the shorts slightly.
  • CES 2024 will be held January 9th to 12th. It will showcase AI expanding into a wide range of Edge AI applications such as home appliances and PCs.
  • One can maintain the L/S trade into CES 2024 given that the Taiwan AI Short Basket constituents are unlikely to be beneficiaries of positive news flow from the event.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
  • Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
  • AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 9.2% Premium — Spread Fell But Remains Historically High; Short Interest Spiked for ADRs
  • UMC: Trading at -1.2% Discount — Still Uncompelling, Wait for Lower Levels
  • ASE: Drops to 7% Premium — Could Soon Be at a Level to Go Long

Marvell Technology Inc.: AI and Cloud Growth – Are They the New Tech Leaders? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marvell Technology managed to surpass Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, achieving a commendable revenue of $1.42 billion, marking a 6% sequential growth above the midpoint of the provided guidance.
  • The data center end market witnessed revenue of $556 million in the third quarter, surpassing expectations, mainly driven by robust AI revenue.
  • Despite the anticipated decline in enterprise on-premise revenue, Marvell’s diverse product portfolio, including PAM4 optical products and Teralynx Ethernet switches, contributed to the broad-based growth.

Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Recent results from Micron and SK Hynix did not only signal a recovery for DRAM but also for NAND flash memory. Micron expects improving NAND pricing through CY2025E.
  • Latest data shows a surge in NAND pricing — 512GB NAND pricing is now up 116% from its 2023 lows.
  • Silicon Motion shares are down 5% over the last year. They have been weighed down by their terminated acquisition by MaxLinear, but now could offer a laggard play.

Baidu Inc.: A Game-Changing Strategy That’s Shaping AI’s Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings in the most recent quarter sustaining solid revenue, profit, and cash flow.
  • The strategic reinvention of the product portfolio with ERNIE and ERNIE bot played a pivotal role in achieving these results.
  • Baidu successfully launched EB4 ahead of expectations, attributing it to a unique end-to-end 4-layer AI infrastructure and valuable user feedback.

ARM Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage & Post IPO Analysis – A Tech Giant’s New Era or a Risky Bet? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ARM Holdings, post its recent IPO, presents an investment case characterized by robust growth in licensing and cautious optimism in royalties.
  • The company reported strong licensing revenue, surpassing expectations, which is indicative of its aggressive push in emerging markets like AI and compute subsystems.
  • We believe that ARM Holdings offers a compelling mix of strong licensing revenue growth and a recovering royalty segment, albeit with challenges in operating expenses and margin pressures.

Alteryx Inc.: Leading the AI Revolution – Can They Sustain the Momentum? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alteryx, Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, demonstrating commendable performance across various fronts.
  • These achievements were propelled by improved sales execution and heightened customer commitment to the Alteryx platform.
  • Alteryx’s Executive License Agreement (ELA) strategy, featuring simplified pricing and bundled features, resonated well with larger organizations.

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.: Bringing AI-Native Cybersecurity To SMBs! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CrowdStrike Holdings delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • The company’s commitment to innovation was underlined by strategic acquisitions, such as Bionic, expanding the Falcon Cloud Security suite.
  • CrowdStrike’s diverse product portfolio, including cloud security, identity threat protection, and LogScale’s next-gen SIEM, contributed to their impressive Q3 performance.

AppLovin Corporation: AI-Driven Tech Powering Advertising – A Deep Dive! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AppLovin Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, experiencing substantial year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter revenue growth.
  • As part of the portfolio optimization program, the apps sector marked its first quarter of quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, generating a total revenue of $864 million, surpassing guidance with an adjusted EBITDA of $490 million, up 63% year-over-year.
  • In the app segment, revenue grew 5% sequentially to $360 million, representing the initial quarter of growth since the portfolio optimization initiative began.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: ADX Energy Ltd, Chariot Limited, Coterra Energy , Criterium Energy, Devon Energy, Eastman Chemical Co, ADF Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • DRX: Q3 Financials Smash Expectations; Increasing Target Price
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Narrowing uncertainty and resources range at Anshof
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Adding further exploration prospects with MND to the FY24 programme
  • Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Like-minded farm-in partner to unlock Anchois
  • Coterra Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Sale of Bulu unlocks value and transforms the company’s balance sheet
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Further improvements on Mont d’Or transaction terms
  • Devon Energy Corporation: Reinvestment Strategy Paying Off – A Deep Dive Into Their Approach! – Major Drivers
  • Eastman Chemical Company: Tackling Market Instabilities – A Strategy for Success! – Major Drivers
  • DRX: New Contracts Announced; Increasing Target Price (Again)


DRX: Q3 Financials Smash Expectations; Increasing Target Price

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • ADF reported stellar Q3 financials that largely beat our estimates. • Revenue came in at $82.1M (+26% YoY) vs. our estimate of $73.0M and EBITDA came in at $17.8M (+146% YoY) vs. our estimate of $7.7M.
  • This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) reported Q3/24 financial results that largely beat our estimates across the board.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Narrowing uncertainty and resources range at Anshof

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The Anshof-2 well encountered high quality Eocene sands with at least 12 metres vertical thickness and porosity of ~20%. • The top of the Eocene sand was encountered ~40-50 m higher than expected, suggesting a much larger and flatter structure than expected in the P50 case. • The better-than-expected reservoir quality and thicker sands suggest better well deliverability and higher flow rates, which result in a higher production plateau and lower development cost with a positive impact on NPV.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Adding further exploration prospects with MND to the FY24 programme

By Auctus Advisors

  • • ADX has farmed out a 50% interest in an exploration area with in the ADX AT I licence to MND in return for a A$0.73 mm back costs payment plus A$7.34 mm funding in exploration drilling. • The exploration area farmed-out to MND includes the LICHT and IRR gas prospects. • The LICHT prospect location (16.2 bcf gross best case prospective resources) has already received a drilling permit including the environmental clearance.

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Like-minded farm-in partner to unlock Anchois

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The transaction consists of two tranches.
  • Energean will initially acquire 45% and 37.5% interests in the Lixus and Rissana licences respectively for US$10 mm on closing plus US$15 mm on FID.
  • Energean will also fund US$85 mm of gross costs including drilling the Anchois East well and up to US$7 mm seismic at Rissana.

Coterra Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on oil and gas behemoth, Coterra Energy.
  • The average daily production volumes in the second quarter amounted to 665 thousand barrels of oil equivalent.
  • In contrast, the average daily oil production reached a significant high of 95.8 thousand barrels daily, marking a significant milestone for Coterra.

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Sale of Bulu unlocks value and transforms the company’s balance sheet

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Criterium has signed a letter of intent to sell its 42.5% interest in Bulu for US$7.75 mm. • The company acquired the interest in Bulu for US$1.6 mm. • Criterium has previously announced a C$18.9 mm capital raise comprising a C$12.2 mm (~US$9 mm) convertible debt and C$6.7 mm (~US$4.5 mm) of new equity.

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Further improvements on Mont d’Or transaction terms

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The completion payment by Criterium on the closing of the Mont d’Or acquisition has been reduced by 60% to US$4.5 mm. • Only US$4.1 mm will now be repaid to Mont d’Or debt holders on completing the acquisition (US$9.6 mm previously) with US$0.5 mm being written down (US$4.3 mm previously). • On completion of the acquisition, Criterium is expected to hold US$25 mm of debt and US$8 mm in cash (including US$4.5 mm of new equity) resulting in US$17 mm in net debt (excluding US$3.0 mm of Mont d’Or residual debt to be converted into equity in 2025).

Devon Energy Corporation: Reinvestment Strategy Paying Off – A Deep Dive Into Their Approach! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Devon Energy Corporation delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat.
  • Their disciplined capital management during the quarter maintained reinvestment rates above 50% of cash flow, doubling free cash flow compared to the previous quarter.
  • We have added reasonable forecasts of the annualized income statement and cash flows and carried out a DCF valuation of the company using its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine a forecasted share price.

Eastman Chemical Company: Tackling Market Instabilities – A Strategy for Success! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Eastman Chemical delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat.
  • The primary contributor to the decline in earnings this year was attributed to volume and mix, resulting in a variable margin decrease of approximately $450 million.
  • Eastman’s management is cautiously optimistic about market stability, particularly in non-discretionary sectors like pharma and medical, anticipating some modest growth.

DRX: New Contracts Announced; Increasing Target Price (Again)

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • ADF announced the signing of a series of new contracts totalling $234M, adding to its backlog of $339M reported for Q3.
  • This morning, ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) announced the signing of a series of new orders totalling $234M.
  • Contract Announcement In May 2023, ADF announced the signing of a large-scale contract for the first phase of a major project in the pharmaceutical sector in the Midwest.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Misumi Group, Deere & Co, Emerson Electric Co, Hunt (Jb) Transprt Svcs, Jacobs Solutions , Lyft , Uber Technologies , Cummins Inc, Urban-Gro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Misumi Group (9962 JP): Heads up for 3Q Results in Late January
  • Deere & Company: Pricing Strategy & Market Positioning & Other Major Drivers
  • Emerson Electric Co.: Will The NI Acquisition Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services: Will Their New Intermodal Service Revolutionize the Industry? – Major Drivers
  • Jacobs Solutions Inc: 4 Critical Insights From Their Latest Earnings! – Major Drivers
  • Lyft Inc.: Focus on Operational Excellence & Differentiated Products! – Major Drivers
  • Uber Technologies Inc.: Enhancing User Construct – Driving New Audience and Frequency! – Major Drivers
  • Cummins Inc.: Pioneering Telematics Software for Commercial Vehicles & Other Major Drivers – Financial Forecasts
  • UGRO: MJBiz Update: The Metamorphosis Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating & $8 PT


Misumi Group (9962 JP): Heads up for 3Q Results in Late January

By Scott Foster

  • The gradual upward trend in monthly sales, which has continued through November, has further to go in our estimation. 
  • At 22x EPS guidance for FY Mar-24, the shares are at the low end of their 5-year P/E range.
  • Guidance remains unchanged. 3Q results are due to be announced at the end of January

Deere & Company: Pricing Strategy & Market Positioning & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Deere & Co delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, with operating margins nearly reaching 22%, resulting in an impressive operating cash flow of nearly $12 billion.
  • This success was attributed to robust market demand, effective operational execution, and improved production costs across the various business sectors.
  • In small ag and turf, net sales in the fourth quarter were down 13%, totaling $3.094 billion, driven by lower shipment volumes.

Emerson Electric Co.: Will The NI Acquisition Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Emerson Electric’s results were disappointing as they could not meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Operational excellence was evident through the execution of the Emerson management system, driving remarkable results.
  • The underlying sales for 2023 grew by 10%, gross profit expanded by 330 basis points to 49%, and adjusted segment EBITA expanded by 220 basis points to 25%.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services: Will Their New Intermodal Service Revolutionize the Industry? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • J.B.
  • Hunt Transport Services delivered a disappointing set of results as it was unable to meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Demand is slightly increasing in some end markets, focusing on delivering big and bulky items to customers’ homes.

Jacobs Solutions Inc: 4 Critical Insights From Their Latest Earnings! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Solution Inc. delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent quarter with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Emphasizing the strategic synergies and shared operational benefits, the combination aims to be tax-efficient for Jacobs’ shareholders, with an estimated $13 billion in annual revenue and significant cost synergies.
  • Post-transaction, Jacobs anticipates emerging as a well-capitalized critical infrastructure and sustainability leader, building on the records set in fiscal year 2023 for revenue and free cash flow generation.

Lyft Inc.: Focus on Operational Excellence & Differentiated Products! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft, Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • A pivotal development in the quarter was the significant rise in drivers opting for Lyft, resulting in an impressive 45% year-over-year surge in the hours spent using the platform, particularly in non-incentivized hours.
  • The emphasis on simplifying the earning process for drivers proved successful, maintaining a stable conversion rate even as rider demand escalated.

Uber Technologies Inc.: Enhancing User Construct – Driving New Audience and Frequency! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Uber Technologies delivered a mixed result in the third quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company reported a notable acceleration in year-on-year trip growth, reaching 25% in Q3, surpassing the growth in gross bookings for the third consecutive quarter.
  • Additionally, adjusted EBITDA exceeded Q3 expectations, marking the first instance of the adjusted EBITDA margin surpassing 3%.

Cummins Inc.: Pioneering Telematics Software for Commercial Vehicles & Other Major Drivers – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Cummins delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • Cummins reported strong demand across key markets and regions, with revenues reaching $8.4 billion, a 15% increase from the previous year.
  • In the quarter, Cummins successfully concluded the acquisition of two Faurecia commercial vehicle manufacturing plants in Columbus, Indiana, and Roermond, Netherlands.

UGRO: MJBiz Update: The Metamorphosis Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating & $8 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $8 price target after meeting with urban-gro management at the MJBizCon show in Las Vegas.
  • As such, we remain excited over the potential for urban-gro to continue to materially grow and to begin registering positive EBITDA going forward.
  • As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $8 price target for UGRO.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Gracell Biotechnologies Inc, Cardinal Health, Cigna Group/, Eli Lilly & Co, Gilead Sciences, Illumina Inc, Insulet Corp, Medtronic Plc, Mettler Toledo International Inc, Novo Nordisk A/S and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.31)-New Medical Device Policy, AstraZeneca to Acquire Gracell, PD-1+ADC
  • Cardinal Health: The Powerhouse Behind Today’s Medical and Pharmaceutical Breakthroughs! – Major Drivers
  • The Cigna Group: Enhancing Their Virtual Care With The Acquisition Of Bright.md Technology Platform! – Major Drivers
  • Eli Lilly and Company: Expansion of Oncology Capabilities & Other Major Drivers
  • Gilead Sciences Inc.: 3 Major Drivers That Can Propel This Pharma Giant Forward! – Financial Forecasts
  • Illumina Inc: The Inside Story of Steady Revenues and Strategic Expansions! – Major Drivers
  • Insulet Corporation: Revolutionizing Diabetes Care with Omnipod 5! – Major Drivers
  • Medtronic PLC: Can The New FDA Approval Help Them Revolutionize Hypertension Treatment? – Major Drivers
  • Mettler-Toledo International Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Novo Nordisk A/S: Strategic Acquisition Of Embark Laboratories Fueling Their Growth in Obesity and Cardiometabolic Diseases! – Major Drivers


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.31)-New Medical Device Policy, AstraZeneca to Acquire Gracell, PD-1+ADC

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Ministry of Finance and National Health Commission issued new policy strictly prohibiting public hospitals from borrowing to purchase medical equipment, which will change the investment logic of medical device sector.
  • “PD-1+ADC” is expected to replace “PD-1+chemotherapy” as the first-line standard therapy. This will be a huge market. So, good story of ADC CDMO (such as WuXi XDC) would continue.
  • The inspiration that AstraZeneca’s acquisition of Gracell brings to investors is IPO isn’t the only way for exit.Being acquired is also good, which will become more important in the future.

Cardinal Health: The Powerhouse Behind Today’s Medical and Pharmaceutical Breakthroughs! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cardinal Health delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, exceeding expectations and achieving significant milestones.
  • Consolidated enterprise results showcased a 10% increase in total revenue to $54.8 billion, primarily fueled by the Pharma segment.
  • Despite flat revenue of $3.8 billion in the Medical segment, the company exceeded expectations in Q1.

The Cigna Group: Enhancing Their Virtual Care With The Acquisition Of Bright.md Technology Platform! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Cigna Group surpassed Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, maintaining the momentum for a sustained year in 2023.
  • The company’s health services and benefits platforms continue to demonstrate strength, aligning with its mission to grow and serve effectively.
  • They reported a total revenue of $49 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.77.

Eli Lilly and Company: Expansion of Oncology Capabilities & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly and Company delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • The company reported a notable 37% increase in revenue compared to the same period in 2022.
  • Research and development expenses saw a 34% increase, primarily due to higher development expenses for late-stage assets and increased investments in early-stage research.

Gilead Sciences Inc.: 3 Major Drivers That Can Propel This Pharma Giant Forward! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Gilead Sciences, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, showcasing a 5% increase in the base business compared to the same period in 2022.
  • Biktarvy achieved a remarkable 12% growth from the corresponding quarter in 2022.
  • The increasing adoption of Trodelvy, a TROP-2-directed ADC, and cutting-edge cell therapies further fueled this upward trajectory.

Illumina Inc: The Inside Story of Steady Revenues and Strategic Expansions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illumina delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • Despite lower revenue, non-GAAP net income surpassed expectations at $52 million or $0.33 per diluted share.
  • While Core Illumina sequencing consumables revenue dropped 4% year-over-year, clinical sequencing consumables experienced a 10% growth, mitigating the decline.

Insulet Corporation: Revolutionizing Diabetes Care with Omnipod 5! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Insulet Corporation managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • During the quarter, their revenue surpassed expectations, driven by the exceptional success of Omnipod 5, the revolutionary automated insulin delivery system.
  • Omnipod 5’s impact was evident in accelerated new customer starts, with a remarkable 45% year-over-year revenue growth in the UK.

Medtronic PLC: Can The New FDA Approval Help Them Revolutionize Hypertension Treatment? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Medtronic plc delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth across diverse business segments and global regions.
  • Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, and Medical Surgical sectors all contributed to this growth, with Diabetes witnessing an acceleration to high single-digit growth.
  • Synergistic businesses, encompassing Aortic, Coronary, Cardiac Surgery, and Endoscopy, achieved mid-single-digit growth, with standout performances in various segments.

Mettler-Toledo International Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Mettler-Toledo International delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • In the third quarter, they reported sales of $942.5 million, indicating a 5% decline in local currency, while US dollar-based sales dropped by 4%, with currency effects contributing a 1% increase.
  • In the Industrial business, sales declined 6% in the quarter due to weak core industrial product sales, particularly in China and the Americas.

Novo Nordisk A/S: Strategic Acquisition Of Embark Laboratories Fueling Their Growth in Obesity and Cardiometabolic Diseases! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Novo Nordisk A/S delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, boasting over 30% organic growth in both the top and bottom lines.
  • The quarter witnessed an impressive milestone, with the company reaching 40 million people affected by diabetes.
  • Financially, the company achieved a remarkable 33% sales growth and a 37% increase in operating profit at constant exchange rates.

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