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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 17
0

Daily Brief China: Chindata Group, WuXi XDC Cayman Inc, Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group, New Horizon Health, JD Logistics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jul) – Chindata, Eoflow, JSR, IMAX, Mason, Estia, Musgrave, Origin, InvoCare
  • Pre-IPO WuXi XDC – The Beautiful Story and the Truth Behind
  • Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group Tearsheet
  • New Horizon Health 1H23: Management Call Takeaway
  • [JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jul) – Chindata, Eoflow, JSR, IMAX, Mason, Estia, Musgrave, Origin, InvoCare

By Arun George

Pre-IPO WuXi XDC – The Beautiful Story and the Truth Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although WuXi XDC has financing needs, we’re more inclined to view this spin-off listing as another capital operation of WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio, who may not want to take risks alone.
  • Global ADC/broader bioconjugate market is at a nascent stage of development, with high R&D risks/commercialization uncertainties. We cannot guarantee whether WuXi XDC will maintain its industry-leading position in the future.
  • Although high growth can bring good stories, we’re not sure how much actual market space WuXi XDC will have in the future,which is the key to determining the valuation ceiling.

Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group (GAHI HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CICC and ABCI.
  • Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group (GAHI) is a digital health management provider.
  • According to F&S, the firm ranked first in the weight management industry and first in the digital weight management industry in China as per 2022 sales.

New Horizon Health 1H23: Management Call Takeaway

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • New Horizon Health reported a solid set of preliminary results for 1H2023
  • We speak to the company’s management post result announcement to figure out the key drivers and summarize the key points in this note.
  • The company upgraded its full year guidance and is on track to meet its long term target.

[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
  • JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
  • We maintain JDL’s SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Japan: Socionext, Nikkei 225, Shift Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (16 Jul) – Socionext, Tryt, IMAX, Shougang Resources, Invocare, Musgrave
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)
  • High Conviction Shift: Upbeat Quarter, Share Price Up More Than 39% YTD and There’s Further Upside

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Jul) – Socionext, Tryt, IMAX, Shougang Resources, Invocare, Musgrave

By Arun George

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

By Nico Rosti

  • Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week’s positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.
  • If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.
  • Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.

High Conviction Shift: Upbeat Quarter, Share Price Up More Than 39% YTD and There’s Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift reported 3QFY08/2023 results on Friday and the company’s revenues increased 34.2% YoY and OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
  • Conclusion of unprofitable projects and expansion into upstream services have helped earnings to expand, and we expect full-year earnings to comfortably beat guidance and consensus estimates.
  • Shift’s share price moved up by 19% following earnings announcement and has been up more than 39% YTD, and we would recommend holding on as there is further upside.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Telecom, Chindata Group, Socionext, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Shift Inc, Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room Increase Has Implications
  • Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jul) – Chindata, Eoflow, JSR, IMAX, Mason, Estia, Musgrave, Origin, InvoCare
  • Weekly Deals Digest (16 Jul) – Socionext, Tryt, IMAX, Shougang Resources, Invocare, Musgrave
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Staying High Ahead of Earnings This Week; UMC at Par
  • High Conviction Shift: Upbeat Quarter, Share Price Up More Than 39% YTD and There’s Further Upside
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘23 Report

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room Increase Has Implications

By Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Jul) – Chindata, Eoflow, JSR, IMAX, Mason, Estia, Musgrave, Origin, InvoCare

By Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Jul) – Socionext, Tryt, IMAX, Shougang Resources, Invocare, Musgrave

By Arun George

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Staying High Ahead of Earnings This Week; UMC at Par

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 9.9% premium, continues to stay above one standard deviation from historical median… Earnings coming this week.
  • UMC: 0.0% ADR premium… Trading on par with local shares… Earnings next week.
  • Chunghwa Telecom: -0.8% discount represents relatively deep discount vs. history.

High Conviction Shift: Upbeat Quarter, Share Price Up More Than 39% YTD and There’s Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift reported 3QFY08/2023 results on Friday and the company’s revenues increased 34.2% YoY and OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
  • Conclusion of unprofitable projects and expansion into upstream services have helped earnings to expand, and we expect full-year earnings to comfortably beat guidance and consensus estimates.
  • Shift’s share price moved up by 19% following earnings announcement and has been up more than 39% YTD, and we would recommend holding on as there is further upside.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July‘23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-June, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (10 have widened, 8 widened, 1 at same level).
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Ericsson, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Lutronic Corp, Neuren Pharmaceuticals, WuXi XDC Cayman Inc, Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group, New Horizon Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Lutronic Tender Offer by Hahn & Company: 2nd Round
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Intra-Review Replacement for BKL and Many Other Expected Changes
  • Pre-IPO WuXi XDC – The Beautiful Story and the Truth Behind
  • Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group Tearsheet
  • New Horizon Health 1H23: Management Call Takeaway

Lutronic Tender Offer by Hahn & Company: 2nd Round

By Douglas Kim

  • According to local media (Seoul Economic Daily), Hahn & Company plans to make a second round of tender offer for Lutronic Corp, in order to meet the delisting requirements.  
  • The tender offer price is 36,700 won, the same as the first tender offer price.
  • We believe that Hahn & Co is likely to successfully complete this second round of tender offer of Lutronic and it is likely to be delisted in the coming months.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Intra-Review Replacement for BKL and Many Other Expected Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.
  • Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) could get deleted from the index family, triggering intra-review changes in the next few days.
  • Including the intra-review changes, ASX 300 could see 12 ADDs and 10 DELs, ASX 200 could see 4 changes, and ASX 100 could see one change between now and September.

Pre-IPO WuXi XDC – The Beautiful Story and the Truth Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although WuXi XDC has financing needs, we’re more inclined to view this spin-off listing as another capital operation of WuXi AppTec/WuXi Bio, who may not want to take risks alone.
  • Global ADC/broader bioconjugate market is at a nascent stage of development, with high R&D risks/commercialization uncertainties. We cannot guarantee whether WuXi XDC will maintain its industry-leading position in the future.
  • Although high growth can bring good stories, we’re not sure how much actual market space WuXi XDC will have in the future,which is the key to determining the valuation ceiling.

Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group (GAHI HK) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CICC and ABCI.
  • Guangdong Archealth Health Industry Group (GAHI) is a digital health management provider.
  • According to F&S, the firm ranked first in the weight management industry and first in the digital weight management industry in China as per 2022 sales.

New Horizon Health 1H23: Management Call Takeaway

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • New Horizon Health reported a solid set of preliminary results for 1H2023
  • We speak to the company’s management post result announcement to figure out the key drivers and summarize the key points in this note.
  • The company upgraded its full year guidance and is on track to meet its long term target.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
  • JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
  • We maintain JDL’s SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
  • JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
  • We maintain JDL’s SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Whole Earth Brands Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Talking Mini-Markets and Convenience
  • A Spoonful of Reality

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Talking Mini-Markets and Convenience

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked some strong SSSG for June bringing its YTD number into line with its FY2023 projections after post Lebaran adjustment in May. 
  • The company will embark on a more aggressive store rollout for this year with plans for 2,100 new stores, including 200 Alfamidi stores and 500 Lawson convenience stores. 
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) continues to grow its membership program under AlfaGift with 16.3m members, which helps to gather valuable data and grow sales. Valuations are attractive.  

A Spoonful of Reality

By subSPAC

  • Whole Earth Brands, a sustainable sweetener firm, has seen a slowdown in growth, tightening margins, and rising debt since going public.
  • Despite the odds, the company is countering these challenges with a strategy that includes cost reduction, improved distribution, and portfolio expansion.
  • A recent buyout proposal from the company’s largest shareholder has added a new dimension to the company’s future. 

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, Agung Podomoro Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY Rising: How Far Can It Go?
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)
  • Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Azure Power Global Ltd

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY Rising: How Far Can It Go?

By Nico Rosti

  • A previously published insight correctly highlighted an high-probability opportunity to go LONG and join the KOSPI 200‘s current multi-month Bull run.
  • The index closed the week strongly up, now we want to evaluate how far this new leg up could go: a total of +3/+4 weeks up, price targets =359-385.
  • Holders of KOSPI 200 LONG positions: Covered Calls can be written at Strikes between 346 and 360, expiry August 10th (4 weeks). A pullback is highly probable from 360.

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Falling: Support (Short-Term)

By Nico Rosti

  • Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has pulled back from its peak. Direction currently unclear but last week’s positive Close was super weak (+0.1%) , may lead to lower prices this week.
  • If the index falls this week, a -1 or -2 weeks down is the most common pattern, followed by a rebound. Reversal probability is =75% for -2 weeks down.
  • Valid support levels for buy-the-dips are between 32067 and 31554. If lower, up to -3 weeks down this pattern is still bullish, from -4 weeks it turns bearish.

Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Azure Power Global Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: ABC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: ABC, ICBC, Li Ning
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 14th): 52 Week High A-H for Banks
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD
  • Northbound Flows (Jul 14th): Moutai, CATL, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, China Telecom, Haitian

HK Short Interest Weekly: ABC, ICBC, Li Ning

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 7th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight changes of short interests in ABC, ICBC, Li Ning.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 14th): 52 Week High A-H for Banks

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.2% as of Jul 14th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -3.0ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, utilities and offset by real estate, communication services.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, ICBC, ABC, CCB, Remegen.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 14th): Meituan, BYD

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 14th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We estimate the outflows to be USD 538m and highlight flows for Meituan, BYD.

Northbound Flows (Jul 14th): Moutai, CATL, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, China Telecom, Haitian

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 14th.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,869.4 million, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials sectors.
  • We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Wuliangye, China Yangtze Power, China Telecom, Inspur Electronic Information Industry, Tcl Technology, China Mobile, BYD, Haitian Flavouring, Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan).

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Azure Power Global Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Azure Power Global Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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