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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Medikaloka Hermina, Daiichi Sankyo, Coeptis Therapeutics Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • PT Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – Women & Children with Increasing Intensity
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline
  • Coeptis Therapeutics Inc. (COEP) YE22 1Q23 & DeSPAC 29062023

PT Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – Women & Children with Increasing Intensity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) saw a strong recovery in patient volumes in 1Q2023, with margins starting to normalise from COVID highs and occupancy rates picking up. 
  • The company is back on an expansion track and recently secured the first hospital in the new capital next year with two new hospitals planned to open this year.
  • Medikaloka Hermina continues to focus on women & children and JKN patients but is also expanding into more intensive specialist treatments to drive profits. Valuations remain attractive versus peers.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • In FY23, Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.
  • For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.
  • Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.

Coeptis Therapeutics Inc. (COEP) YE22 1Q23 & DeSPAC 29062023

By ACF Equity Research

  • C&CE 1Q23A $2.1m, burn 1Q $1.6m, S-1MEF filed for raise
  • YE22A Opex $34.2m vs. $14.1 y/y, Δ is redemptions/merger costs
  • Warrants booked as liabilities (SEC de-SPAC ruling Apr 12, 2021)

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 23rd): Mineral Resource and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 23rd): Mineral Resource, Macquarie, Aurizon, Endeavour

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 23rd): Mineral Resource, Macquarie, Aurizon, Endeavour

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 23rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, Macquarie, Aurizon, Endeavour, Flight Centre Tr, Rio Tinto.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief ECM: ALT Co IPO Preview and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ALT Co IPO Preview

ALT Co IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • ALT Co is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in July. ALT tests high-performance non-memory semiconductors applied to various industries such as secondary batteries, artificial intelligence, and automotive. 
  • The bankers used four companies as comps for ALT including Lb Semicon, LB Lusem, Doosan Tesna, and Nepes Ark. These four stocks are up on average 48% YTD.
  • The IPO price range is from 16,700 won to 20,500 won. The expected market cap of the company post IPO is from 150 billion won to 184 billion won. 

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief ESG: Having Ended Its Traditional Role and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Having Ended Its Traditional Role, TOPIX Faces Several Challenges

Having Ended Its Traditional Role, TOPIX Faces Several Challenges

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The TSE is in a long-term battle to improve the quality of the prime market while maintaining lax listing standards that do not fit the prime market concept.
  • If passive funds move to JPX Prime 150 Index, which would increase the divergence between stock prices of high quality and low quality companies, it might motivate the companies more.
  • If there is little difference between performance of TOPIX and JPX Prime 150, the passive funds will be satisfied with this index, and the TOPIX engagement problem will be eliminated.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Credit: Tesla’s Panicky Q2: Everything Must Go! and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla’s Panicky Q2: Everything Must Go!
  • Morning Views Asia: Bharat Petroleum Corp, Meituan, Pertamina Geothermal Energy

Tesla’s Panicky Q2: Everything Must Go!

By Vicki Bryan

  • Prices have been slashed and slashed again, on top of expensive incentives like free charging, cheap leases, & juicy subsidies. 
  • But Tesla has been unable to ease elevated inventory in key markets.
  • This signals even record deliveries will produce lower quality revenue and disappointing margins & profits for the second quarter.

Morning Views Asia: Bharat Petroleum Corp, Meituan, Pertamina Geothermal Energy

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods
  • Times Neighborhood (9928 HK): China Property Play With High Margin of Safety
  • Samsung Electronics:  Return of the King
  • MTR (66): Should Start to Move
  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Irrelevant Mission, Fading Moat
  • PT Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – Women & Children with Increasing Intensity
  • Keisei Electric (9009): Ridership and Price Hike
  • Micron. Clutching At AI Straws
  • Komatsu (6301) | The Back Test Worked. Now What?
  • EM & Japan Neobanks – Stick with Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), but Time to Take Profits on Nubank (NU US)

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.
  • Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.
  • The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.

Times Neighborhood (9928 HK): China Property Play With High Margin of Safety

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) is a China property management company headquartered in the Big Bay Area, trading at 3x 2023 P/E and below net cash.
  • China property management as a sector has lost most of its value given close relationship with China property.  However, there are still some investable property management companies.
  • Upcoming catalysts include interim results in August, potential favorable policies in China property sector, and potential shareholder actions.  

Samsung Electronics:  Return of the King

By Steven Holden

  • Asia Ex-Japan investors move from underweight to a record overweight in Samsung Electronics
  • Samsung has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation over the last 6-months alongside BYD, Trip Com and Meituan.
  • Majority of funds positioned overweight with a record 81.4% of funds holding a position.  Samsung becomes one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region.

MTR (66): Should Start to Move

By Henry Soediarko

  • The share price of MTR Corp (66 HK) has not moved and lagged behind other transport operators in Asia.
  • High-Frequency numbers from the company has shown improvement and signs that the Chinese tourists are gradually returning.
  • The reopening of the checking in facility in downtown Hong Kong is another sign that more tourists are expected to come. 

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Irrelevant Mission, Fading Moat

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) is a technology-driven affordable housing finance company (HFC) focused on first-time homebuyers in low and middle-income groups. 
  • We believe access to finance is more relevant rather than quick TAT and hence question the relevance of wanting to be the fastest provider.
  • Considering the fading competitive advantage, borrower profile and segment dynamics, HOMEFIRS may be the fastest but not necessarily the safest.

PT Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) – Women & Children with Increasing Intensity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) saw a strong recovery in patient volumes in 1Q2023, with margins starting to normalise from COVID highs and occupancy rates picking up. 
  • The company is back on an expansion track and recently secured the first hospital in the new capital next year with two new hospitals planned to open this year.
  • Medikaloka Hermina continues to focus on women & children and JKN patients but is also expanding into more intensive specialist treatments to drive profits. Valuations remain attractive versus peers.

Keisei Electric (9009): Ridership and Price Hike

By Henry Soediarko

  • YTD performance of 61% has been stellar and index beating but the concern remains whether there will be more left. 
  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) April 23 ridership and revenue growth provide momentum despite the still non-existence arrival of Chinese tourists. 
  • Chinese tourists’ arrival in 2H 23 may be slow but chances are that they will arrive in Japan and will boost both ridership and revenue.

Micron. Clutching At AI Straws

By William Keating

  • Micron reported FQ3’23 revenues of $3.8 billion, up 2% sequentially and down 57% year-over-year.
  • Despite upbeat AI notes among others, Micron quietly delivered more bad news than good with their overall outlook worsening in many key respects. 
  • In the company’s own words, “Profitability and cash flow will remain extremely challenged for some time”. For “some time”, you could insert “at least 12 months”

Komatsu (6301) | The Back Test Worked. Now What?

By Mark Chadwick

  • We remain bullish on Komatsu despite returning a positive 37% return over the past year. 
  • Q1 results are likely to exceed expectations and guidance is likely to be cautious, due to forex, pricing and cost factors.
  • Komatsu is still attractively valued compared to its peers and historical averages, and has 20% upside potential.

EM & Japan Neobanks – Stick with Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), but Time to Take Profits on Nubank (NU US)

By Victor Galliano

  • We remain positive on Rakuten Bank, with its group ecosphere as a source of customer growth, its low cost base, and extremely low NPL ratio
  • Rakuten Bank trades on the lowest PE multiple of the neobank peer group , with the low ROE to PBV ratio close to the best of its neobank peers
  • Nubank shares have done well since we upgraded to a buy in January; we recommend investors to take profits given Nubank’s  limited potential for positive surprises and its stretched valuations

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels

Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Cycle: Near term pullback a buy for a push into late June/early July (cycle has shifted right). Equities remain well supported. Increased volatility expected in July.
  • Met the SPX 4,370 buy level with firmer support at 4,350. Rally bias for a minor new high in the coming week+.
  • Measuring rally momentum for signs of a bigger stall cycle in July.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Macro: Outside the Box #10 What if China Favors Bridges over Credit Cards once More? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Outside the Box #10 What if China Favors Bridges over Credit Cards once More?
  • EUR Liquidity Watch – How Well Are Depositors Protected? Italy with the Largest Bill to Pay (Again)

Outside the Box #10 What if China Favors Bridges over Credit Cards once More?

By Emil Moller

  • CCP is in a tough place and is forced to balance between long-term policy goals and short-term costs
  • The CCP could be incentivized to back investment (as per usual) despite rhetoric suggesting a policy pivot. This could lead to further tensions with Washington
  • There is not much pointing to a comeback for the Yuan no matter what policy path Beijing chooses

EUR Liquidity Watch – How Well Are Depositors Protected? Italy with the Largest Bill to Pay (Again)

By Andreas Steno

  • The Deposit Guarantee Scheme requires multiple countries to pay a large bill by year-end
  • Italy will likely be the biggest loser of all of this as Italian banks don’t look robust enough
  • Tighter regulation is necessary in order for the ECB to maintain a functioning safety net

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |NUGGET: Tepco ¥9 Trillion on Decarbonization – Boon for KANDENDO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan |NUGGET: Tepco ¥9 Trillion on Decarbonization – Boon for KANDENDO
  • China TMT Update June 29-NIO/XPEV/BEKE:NIO’s New Order Intake;Xpeng Likely to Slightly Beat;
  • China TMT Update-2618.HK/2352.CH/3690.HK/PDD/BEKE-Cainiao Launching Express Delivery Network
  • New World Resources Ltd – Advancing the Antler Copper Deposit in Northern Arizona

Ohayo Japan |NUGGET: Tepco ¥9 Trillion on Decarbonization – Boon for KANDENDO

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX +0.4% AS Banks lead after passing Fed’s stress test= PAYOUTS ! 2 Fed hikes more likely says Swaps markets; US 1Q GDP REVISED UP to 2%.
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.8; End of Month/Quarter; Flat NKY Today = +18.5% QTD..best Quarter in a Decade !  Big Japan AGM Week -Biz leaders get heat.
  • NUGGET. Kandenko(1942) set to benefit from the massive drive to decarbonize by  key client TEPCO.  Co is still trading below book, is net cash, with earnings set to grow !

China TMT Update June 29-NIO/XPEV/BEKE:NIO’s New Order Intake;Xpeng Likely to Slightly Beat;

By Shawn Yang

  • NIO: NIO’s new order intake in June exceeds 20k units (+)
  • XPEV: Xpeng is likely to slightly beat 2Q23 guidance (+)
  • BEKE：Property transactions in June is weak, but likely to bottom-out(-)

China TMT Update-2618.HK/2352.CH/3690.HK/PDD/BEKE-Cainiao Launching Express Delivery Network

By Shawn Yang

  • 2618.HK/002352.CH: Cainiao launching its own national express delivery network (-/-)
  • 3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in community group buying (-/-)
  • BEKE: Beike is planning to extend business to real estate upstream, exploiting extra value beyond new home sales channel(-)

New World Resources Ltd – Advancing the Antler Copper Deposit in Northern Arizona

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • New World Resources Ltd (ASX:NWC) is developing the Antler copper deposit in northern Arizona and the earlier-stage Javelin copper project which lies about 75kms to the south- east of Antler.
  • The company has recently released an updated scoping study (May 2023) in which it upgraded the production profile by 30% to 15.4Mt at 1.3Mtpa for 13 years at an average grade of 3.0% copper equivalent (Cu Eq.) for capex of US$252m to deliver 381,400 tonnes of Cu Eq metal.
  • The study identified that over the life of the project, Antler should produce US$3.0bn in revenue and US$1.5bn in free cashflow with a pre-tax IRR of 40.2%. New World is also undertaking a pre-feasibility study on the project and intends submitting mine permit applications in Q3 2023.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Delta Electronics (DELTA TB): Potential SET50 Index Delete in December? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB): Potential SET50 Index Delete in December?
  • Swire Coke Sale Special Div Impacts B/A Ratio
  • Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung’s Next Stake Sale
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC
  • XxxLutz/Home24: Final Chance to Abandon the Boat

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB): Potential SET50 Index Delete in December?

By Brian Freitas

Swire Coke Sale Special Div Impacts B/A Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night, Swire Pacific announced it planned to sell its US Coca Cola Distribution business to its parent company. That means a Circular, an IFA Opinion, and an EGM.
  • I expect a September EGM and the Special Div to follow in Q4. While I find the price low, I expect the deal to be approved by Swire shareholders.
  • This deal has an effect on the Swire B/A ratio. Some may get it. Some may not. Makes sense to be ready. Swire A is cheap. Swire B is cheaper.

Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung’s Next Stake Sale

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung Display still holds a 5.85% stake. Hankyung reported that this remaining stake would also be disposed of in the future.
  • Then the key lies in timing. Considering the ongoing pattern of block deals being exposed during the pre-sounding phase, we may be able to capture clues for preemptive trading.
  • As seen from the chart depicting SFA’s loan balance and the percentage of short-selling to daily TV, we can observe a significant increase in activity just before today’s sale event.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.
  • Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
  • The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
  • The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.

XxxLutz/Home24: Final Chance to Abandon the Boat

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Following the additional acceptance period and settlement, XXXLutz has increased its stake up to c.94.65% of Home24 (H24 GR).
  • The Bidders, together with XXXLutz KG, have entered into a delisting agreement with home24, at the same time they will launching a delisting offer, at the prior offer price, €7.5/share.
  • The offer price was fair in my view. Liquidity will become razor thin post offer and there will be no domination and P&L transfer agreement. Tender regardless of  acquisition price.

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