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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Indonesia: First Pacific Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022

Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Kawasan Industri Jababeka
  2. China South City
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief Australia: OZ Minerals Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects
  • OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$28.25/share (5wks after I said 3-6 weeks).
  • All terms are confirmed and there may be a fully-franked dividend up to A$1.75/share which would reduce terms to A$26.50. The OZL Directors unanimously recommend. 
  • Anti-Trust approvals are needed in Brazil & Vietnam, other standard conditions, and the OZL Scheme Meeting should be late March early April. I expect this is done.

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

By Arun George

  • OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has entered into a SID with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).
  • The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. 
  • The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.

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Daily Brief India: Mahindra & Mahindra, Indegene Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings
  • Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Scorpio-N Fake Bookings

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • One of our routine channels is suggesting the possibility of some of Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) ‘s Scorpio-N bookings being fake.
  • This channel (an online auto forum) has been a trusted source of information followed by various industry veterans including the company’s chairman.
  • While the rationalisation of fake bookings as a recent industry practice could solace some, the fallacy of the bookings narrative only gets stronger. 

Indegene Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) is looking to raise around US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Citigroup, JP Morgan, Kotak, and Nomura.
  • Indegene is a digital commercialisation firm focused exclusively on the global life sciences industry.
  • Its solutions enable biopharmaceutical, emerging biotech and medical devices companies to develop, launch and drive sales for their products in a more efficient manner.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hana Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024

Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024

By Sanghyun Park

  • The all-inclusive CGT will be implemented in 2025. The current partial capital gains tax will be maintained until 2024. And the STT will drop from 0.23% to 0.15% in 2024.
  • The critical cause of an arb opportunity on ex-date price correction+dividend yield has been the yearend selling flow on T-1 ex-date for the purpose of tax avoidance by majority shareholders.
  • So, from this year to 2024, we should keep an eye on this arbitrage opportunity, which will continue to arise.

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Daily Brief China: Swire Pacific (B), First Pacific Co, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022
  • EQD | HSI Index:-Chinese Equities Have Held up into Year End and We Revisit the December Call Ratio
  • Hang Seng Index and Tencent

Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only

By Travis Lundy

  • In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)).
  • The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.
  • Swire had been buying both every day. But they’ve been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.

Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Kawasan Industri Jababeka
  2. China South City
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 22 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Kawasan Industri Jababeka
  2. China South City
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Guangzhou R&F Properties
  5. Sunac China Holdings

and more…


EQD | HSI Index:-Chinese Equities Have Held up into Year End and We Revisit the December Call Ratio

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have continued to outperform versus other global markets
  • The HSI Index 200dma has proved to be a barrier to the upside
  • We evaluate the call ratio we suggested in November and recommend action

Hang Seng Index and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Holiday Volume and excessive price actions make market analysis less than helpful. HSI daily shares traded volume on 21st was the lowest year to date.
  • Thursday saw a pick-up in volume. Word on easing Covid restrictions for international travelers, reopening HK-China Border in January, and a higher close in the US market brought outsized gains.
  • The stock was up 4.12% and had the heaviest volume on HKEX on the 22nd, yet the stock volume was well below 21 days’ average volume.

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Most Read: Appier Group, Nippon Steel Trading Corporation, OZ Minerals Ltd, S.M.Entertainment Co, Varun Beverages Ltd, Swire Pacific (B), Conexio Corp, WCP, Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Appier (4180) – Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk
  • JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance
  • Nippon Steel & Mitsui & Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium
  • BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects
  • Mandatory Offer Arrives in Korea: Detailed Rules & Trading Ramifications
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations
  • Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only
  • Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
  • TIGER (WISE) Secondary Battery ETF Rebalancing in January: Names to Watch
  • JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

Appier (4180) – Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

By Travis Lundy

  • Appier Group (4180 JP) had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.
  • The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.
  • Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday’s BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest “risk” here.

JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance

By Travis Lundy

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) was the target of activist Murakami-san in August 2022. They threatened a poison pill. Murakami-san sold, then bought to 19.5%. They negotiated. He won.
  • His result excluded others. The market did not take it well. Murakami-san rejected taking a 1% hit to original terms (vs reference NAV). JAFCO went back to the drawing board. 
  • Then submitted to greenmail at a higher price. The first buyback was agreed at ¥2,500 vs ¥2,651 NAV. The new one? ¥2,730-2,840 vs ¥2,513 NAV. Inexplicable – Spectacularly Bad Governance.

Nippon Steel & Mitsui & Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium

By Travis Lundy

  • Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) today announced they would buy out Nippon Steel & Sumikin Bussan (9810 JP), their steel-trading subsidiary. 
  • The shares trade near an all-time high, but Nippon Steel is paying an 87% premium. (Interestingly, the high end of the DCF ranges suggest a 280% premium)
  • On fundamentals, this could have been higher, but given the shareholder structure, I expect it is a done deal as-is. The Tender Offer should start in February 2023.

BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$28.25/share (5wks after I said 3-6 weeks).
  • All terms are confirmed and there may be a fully-franked dividend up to A$1.75/share which would reduce terms to A$26.50. The OZL Directors unanimously recommend. 
  • Anti-Trust approvals are needed in Brazil & Vietnam, other standard conditions, and the OZL Scheme Meeting should be late March early April. I expect this is done.

Mandatory Offer Arrives in Korea: Detailed Rules & Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • The target is those who purchase 25% or more of the shares of a listed company and become the largest shareholder with management rights.
  • The minimum volume of a mandatory offer is [(50% of total shares + 1 share) – the management right purchase volume].
  • We will be exposed to pro-rata risk, so it will be essential to figure out the nature and propensity of the shareholder composition to estimate the tendering rate in advance.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

By Brian Freitas

  • Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
  • One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
  • Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.

Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only

By Travis Lundy

  • In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)).
  • The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.
  • Swire had been buying both every day. But they’ve been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.

Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good. 
  • However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive. 
  • And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests. 

TIGER (WISE) Secondary Battery ETF Rebalancing in January: Names to Watch

By Sanghyun Park

  • The key to this rebalancing is the inclusion of WCP, which satisfies the requirements of minimum listing period and secondary battery sales amount.
  • As a hedge for the LONG WCP position, we can use Soulbrain and Solus Advanced, whose passive outflow is relatively high among those of a similar size to WCP.
  • Among large caps, we should pay attention to L&F, Posco Chemical, and Iljin Materials. However, we should be cautious about approaching them as an active trading target.

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
  • The revised tender offer’s primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
  • The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board’s ability to enhance value.

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Daily Brief United States: Futu Holdings Ltd, Black Knight Inc, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Kulicke And Soffa Industries,, Micron Technology, Ethereum, Bitcoin Pro, Splunk Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion
  • MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor
  • Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables
  • Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain
  • Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023?
  • Developing Economies: A Proven Use Case for Crypto
  • Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE

By Robert Sassoon

  • We think that a ~40% spread overstates the risk of this deal not moving to completion. 
  • The horizontal integration aspects of this transaction can be remedied, but this is a largely vertical merger transaction which regulators may struggle to prove will lead to monopolistic behavior.
  • Even if the  ICE merger is ultimately blocked,  BKI has other supporting factors that could drive upside – an attractive valuation and a potential revival of interest from other parties 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
  • MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
  • Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain

By Kevin George

  • Micron Technology, Inc. reported fiscal Q1 2023 earnings and announced cost-cutting measures.
  • Macroeconomic trends are still a drag, according to the company.
  • The company also announced cost cutting measures for the next year’s fiscal year.

Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023?

By Smartkarma Research

Is there still hope for Crypto in 2023? In the next webinar, we speak with Insight Provider Edward Wu on just that, as he shares with us the landscape of the Crypto industry in 2023. From the problems with the current crypto industry, to Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, Edward will share with us his thoughts in this next episode of our Webinar Wednesdays. Have any burning questions about Crypto, DeFi trading or Ethereum Layer 2 solutions? Get them answered in the live Q&A that will conclude the session. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 4 January 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Edward Wu is an experienced financial professional with strong research experience in macroeconomics, credit as well as corporate banking. He is a true believer in the future of Crypto/DeFi and foresee widely adoption of tokenization of real-world assets. He is currently actively researching in the crypto field, mainly focused on DeFi, DAO governance, and tokenomic design.


Developing Economies: A Proven Use Case for Crypto

By Kaiko

  • Some people think of crypto as purely an investment opportunity. A highly volatile asset class that comes with risk, but eventually the returns will be worth it.
  • However, this perception is somewhat naive, as it ignores one of crypto’s biggest use cases: financial freedom.
  • The concept of financial freedom is hard to grasp for the privileged of us living in Europe or the US – despite record levels of inflation, we are not financially oppressed, and we can bank on our savings being relatively intact next year.

Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

By Kevin George

  • Splunk is stronger with Q3 earnings and guidance. The company is shadowed by takeover talk.
  • The company has a strong cloud market make it a buy. The firm is shadowing by takeover talks.
  • The firm has been in the news for more than two years.

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Daily Brief Japan: Conexio Corp, Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
  • JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer
  • Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima

Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good. 
  • However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive. 
  • And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests. 

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
  • The revised tender offer’s primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
  • The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board’s ability to enhance value.

Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima

By Arun George

  • Conexio Corp (9422 JP) has recommended Nojima Corp (7419 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,911 per share, an 59.1% premium to the undisturbed price (22 December).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer was set in motion due to Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s desire to exit. Itochu tendering its 60.34% stake and an attractive offer, suggests a done deal. 

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Doctor Anywhere Acquires SG Healthcare Provider and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Doctor Anywhere Acquires SG Healthcare Provider, Nets $38.8m Funding
  • Aktivolabs scores US$10M Series A to help populations manage risk of chronic diseases

Doctor Anywhere Acquires SG Healthcare Provider, Nets $38.8m Funding

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-headquartered Doctor Anywhere (DA) is set to acquire medical services group Asian Healthcare Specialists (AHS) in a cash deal valued at about S$109 million (US$76.7 million) at an offer price of S$0.188 (US$0.13) per share.
  • The healthtech firm has also announced a US$38.8 million series C1 financing round led by Novo Holdings to partly fund the AHS acquisition and accelerate growth.
  • According to DA’s financial statements, the company’s revenue hit S$31.9 million in 2021, an over 2.8x growth from the previous year

Aktivolabs scores US$10M Series A to help populations manage risk of chronic diseases

By e27

  • Singapore-based digital health-science company Aktivolabs has secured US$10 million in a Series A round of investment led by Mitsui & Co, Adaptive Capital Partners, and SEEDS Capital.
  • The company will develop the existing algorithm and data-analytics programme to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of predicting, preventing and self-managing chronic disease using digital biomarkers.
  • The platform harnesses real-time digital health data elements in a low-touch, cost-effective manner with measurable actuarial and actionable value to life and health insurers.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Attitude Toward Information Disclosure May Make a Further Difference in Stock Valuations and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Attitude Toward Information Disclosure May Make a Further Difference in Stock Valuations

The Attitude Toward Information Disclosure May Make a Further Difference in Stock Valuations

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The less frequently information is disclosed, the greater the impact of single disclosure on stock prices. Fewer quarterly disclosure reduces trading volume, which will have negative impact on stock valuations.
  • Companies listed on U.S. market will continue quarterly disclosure, while companies with limited human resources won’t adopt quarterly disclosure. Even within the same sector, companies may adopt different disclosure attitudes.
  • Metrical’s analysis shows that the IR factor is highly positively correlated with Tobin’s q. Also, different disclosure stances may emerge depending on the ratio of foreign shareholders.

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