All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Occidental Petroleum, Airbnb Inc, Electronic Arts, Palantir Technologies Inc, Transdigm Group, Skyworks Solutions, Zoetis Inc, Viatris, Jacobs Solutions , Gatos Silver and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Notable Progress On The Carbon Capture Front & Other Developments
  • Airbnb Inc.: Possible Revenue Growth From The Affordable Rooms Offering – Key Drivers
  • Electronic Arts Inc.: New Game Launches & Other Drivers
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: New AI Platform Could Become The Secret Sauce For Continued Hyper Growth – Key Drivers
  • TransDigm Group Incorporated: Acquisition of Calspan Corporation & Other Drivers
  • Skyworks Solutions Inc.: Does The Improving Pipeline And Robust Product Portfolio Make It A ‘Buy’? – Key Drivers
  • Zoetis Inc.: International Business Leads Growth
  • Viatris Inc.: Emerging Market Growth Makes Up Disappointing Performance? – Key Drivers
  • Jacobs Engineering Group: Infra Growth & The Palantir Partnership Accelerating Its Upward Trajectory? – Key Drivers
  • Gatos Silver’s Bi-Quarterly Earnings Reviewed


Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Notable Progress On The Carbon Capture Front & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • However, their disciplined approach to capital spending and operational excellence has led to some progress in their shareholder return framework.
  • We give Occidental Petroleum Corporation a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Airbnb Inc.: Possible Revenue Growth From The Affordable Rooms Offering – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Airbnb delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations, but it failed to surpass the analyst consensus in terms of earnings.
  • The company experienced significantly high bookings, with over 120 million Nights and Experiences Booked in Q1.
  • Revenue grew significantly year-over-year, and the quarter was the most profitable GAAP-based.

Electronic Arts Inc.: New Game Launches & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Electronic Arts managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street in its recent quarterly result.
  • The fiscal year 2023 saw EA SPORTS FIFA thrive, with double-digit growth in net bookings and FIFA 23 becoming the best-selling title in franchise history.
  • We give Electronic Arts Inc. a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Palantir Technologies Inc.: New AI Platform Could Become The Secret Sauce For Continued Hyper Growth – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result with solid revenue growth driven by the U.S. commercial business and disciplined spending management.
  • Their commercial segment saw significant revenue growth, while the government showed strength.
  • Their expanding adjusted operating margins and strong cash flow generation highlight their ability to manage costs while driving revenue growth effectively.

TransDigm Group Incorporated: Acquisition of Calspan Corporation & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TransDigm Group managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings in its recent quarterly result.
  • With approximately 90% of net sales generated by unique proprietary products, the company’s focus on aftermarket revenues has provided stability and higher margins.
  • TransDigm experienced substantial growth in total commercial revenues and bookings across all major market channels.

Skyworks Solutions Inc.: Does The Improving Pipeline And Robust Product Portfolio Make It A ‘Buy’? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • It was a decent second quarter for Skyworks as the results were on par with the analyst consensus estimates.
  • The market trends, such as the growth of WiFi and electric vehicles, present significant growth potential for Skyworks.
  • With its successful second-quarter performance, Skyworks’ expanding customer relationships, global scale, and efficient cash flow engine position them well for future growth opportunities in the rapidly evolving connectivity landscape.

Zoetis Inc.: International Business Leads Growth

By Baptista Research

  • Zoetis delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.
  • While revenues from companion animal products were flat operationally, their livestock portfolio led to the results with a 12% operational gain in revenue.
  • Zoetis’ team anticipates flat operational growth in its cattle portfolio and double-digit operational growth for its cutting-edge companion animal portfolio.

Viatris Inc.: Emerging Market Growth Makes Up Disappointing Performance? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Viatris’ results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company achieved decent results in developed markets, with a full European version driven by critical brands and generics.
  • The company expects mid-single-digit growth in this segment, primarily driven by the brand category.

Jacobs Engineering Group: Infra Growth & The Palantir Partnership Accelerating Its Upward Trajectory? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Engineering Group managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The People and Places line of business of Jacobs Engineering delivered a strong performance.
  • The divergent solutions operating unit had a strong operating profit with up in operating profit.

Gatos Silver’s Bi-Quarterly Earnings Reviewed

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Sources suggest Silver is set to receive long-term support.
  • However, the futures market implies that a short-term price retracement is possible.
  • Despite the stock’s tailwinds, a 30% year-over-year surge places Gatos in overvalued territory.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Tian An China Investment, Kelun Biotech, Mobvoi, PDD Holdings Inc, Hopson Development and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China E-Commerce: Is Still a Dead Cat
  • Tian An China Investments (28 HK): Trading Halt, Privatisation by Allied Group?
  • Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
  • Mobvoi Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • PDD/Shein/Tiktok: Temu Continues to Experience Rapid Growth, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development


China E-Commerce: Is Still a Dead Cat

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Positive surprises in profitability during Q1 2023 failed to reverse the long-term decline of Chinese e-commerce, possibly due to market recognition of the temporary impact of cost-cutting and monetization efforts.
  • In our opinion, robust growth in GMV is fundamentally essential to reverse the long-term downward trend of the Chinese e-commerce sector.
  • Chinese e-commerce sector no longer discloses GMV, but Express delivery volume indicates a 20% decline in parcel volumes compared to 2021, potentially reflecting a decrease in GMV.

Tian An China Investments (28 HK): Trading Halt, Privatisation by Allied Group?

By Arun George

  • Tian An China Investment (28 HK) and Allied (373 HK) entered a trading halt “pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” Allied owns 55.72% of Tian An.
  • It is likely that Allied Group is seeking to privatise its subsidiary Tian An. Tian An’s other substantial shareholders have a history of sell-downs which facilitate an offer.
  • Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK)/APL’s partial offer for Tian An in 2011 and Allied’s privatisation of APL in 2020 point to a 20.8%-34.3% premium or HK$5.01-5.57 per share offer.

Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Kelun-Biotech, a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company, plans to raise up to US$400m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we examined the company’s two core products, namely SKB264, a TROP2-ADC, and A166, a HER2-ADC.
  • In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s key products.

Mobvoi Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Mobvoi (2185047D CH) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and CMBI.
  • Mobvoi is an AI company with a focus on generative AI and voice interaction technologies.
  • As per CIC, the firm is the largest revenue-generating AI company focusing on AI-generated content (AIGC) technologies in terms of 2022 revenue from AIGC solutions.

PDD/Shein/Tiktok: Temu Continues to Experience Rapid Growth, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks

By Shawn Yang

  • We recently interviewed some Temu merchants, and the main conclusion is that Temu continues to experience rapid growth despite the chaos. 
  • Temu’s GMV reached a new high in May; Temu faces upcoming challenges from Shein and TikTok, as they are also about to launch their fully managed models.
  • Moreover, Temu’s unit economics (UE) has not seen further improvement for several months, and the supply of goods has been a problem;

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Redox, Vection Technologies Ltd, Actinogen Medical and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Redox IPO – Pricing Is Tricky
  • Vection Technologies – Apple and AI integrations plus latest acquisition
  • Actinogen Medical – Refining the upcoming XanaMIA Phase IIb study


Redox IPO – Pricing Is Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, is looking to raise around US$270m in its Australia IPO. 
  • In 2022 it was ranked as the largest chemicals and ingredients distributor in Australia, as well as the 13th largest in the Asia Pacific region and the 35th largest worldwide.
  • In this note, we undertake a quick peer comaprison and talk about valuations.

Vection Technologies – Apple and AI integrations plus latest acquisition

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies (VR1) recently announced that its ChatGPT-powered mixed reality solution, 3D Frame, will now be available on Apple’s macOS. The release further highlights the interoperability of VR1’s technology with global powerhouses in the virtual (VR) and augmented (AR) reality space, positioning it well to capitalise on the latest breakthrough advancements, such as Apple’s Vision Pro AR headset. 3D Frame’s cross-platform compatibility with Windows and macOS should ensure wider availability across devices and reaffirms VR1’s position as a major player in the field. Management also announced the proposed acquisition of Invrsion, which it expects to be immediately earnings accretive and brings with it a portfolio of tier 1 customers, including Walgreens, Coca-Cola and Diageo.


Actinogen Medical – Refining the upcoming XanaMIA Phase IIb study

By Edison Investment Research

Actinogen intends to start patient enrolment and dosing in H2 CY23 in the Phase IIb XanaMIA study portion assessing Xanamem in lead indication Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The company expects to receive FDA approval in the coming weeks on amendments to the study design protocol and the new Xanamem tablet formulation to be used (replacing the capsule used in prior Xanamem trials). It expects to report top-line efficacy data in H2 CY25, with interim readouts projected in or around late CY24 or early CY25. We believe market participants will be keen to observe whether this study, which prospectively enrols patients with elevated pTau, will confirm the positive findings shown in a subset biomarker analysis from the earlier XanADu study. Positive Phase IIb data could introduce the possibility of material out-licensing or value realisation opportunities, in our view.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Fila Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger of PGA Tour, DP World Tour, & LIV Golf – Impact on Fila Holdings and Acushnet


Merger of PGA Tour, DP World Tour, & LIV Golf – Impact on Fila Holdings and Acushnet

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, one of the biggest news in the global sports industry has been the merger of PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and LIV Golf. 
  • We believe that this merger is likely to have a positive impact on the global golf industry, including on Fila Holdings (081660 KS) and Acushnet Holdings (GOLF US).
  • If this merger successfully completed this year, there is a good possibility of a pick-up in golf related equipment sales and profits for Acushnet and Fila Holdings starting 2024. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Amman Mineral IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
  • Amman Mineral International IPO – Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation


Amman Mineral IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is offering 7.288bn shares in its IPO at a price range of IDR 1650-1775/share to raise between US$808-870m and valuing the company between US$8.08-8.7bn.
  • The stock will not get fast entry to global indices or local Indonesia indices (IDX30 Index/ LQ45 Index/ IDX80 Index).
  • With listing planned for 5 July, the earliest index inclusion will be in December and there are no near-term passive flows expected for the stock.

Amman Mineral International IPO – Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is looking to raise up to US$868m in its Indonesian IPO. 
  • Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, GMR Airports Infrastructure and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Kotak Placement – Has Sold Before, Stock Has Run-Up Recently but It Has Still Underperformed
  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN): Hospitals Business Drove Q4 Result; Positive Outlook For FY24
  • GMR Airports Infrastructure- Still a Work In Progress


Kotak Placement – Has Sold Before, Stock Has Run-Up Recently but It Has Still Underperformed

By Sumeet Singh

  • CPPIB aims to raise around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)
  • This is not the first time that CPPIB will be selling down some of its stake, the previous deal held up well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN): Hospitals Business Drove Q4 Result; Positive Outlook For FY24

By Tina Banerjee

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported a 21% YoY growth in revenue in Q4FY23, mainly driven by 31% and 18% revenue growth in Apollo HealthCo and hospital business, respectively.
  • For FY24, Apollo expects HCS segment revenue growth at 15% YoY, mainly driven by higher occupancy. The company aims to improve hospital occupancy to 70% by the end of FY24.
  • Apollo 24/7 business is on track to achieve breakeven at an entity level in Q4FY24. GMV of Apollo 24/7 is expected to be double in FY24 compared to FY23 level.

GMR Airports Infrastructure- Still a Work In Progress

By Nitin Mangal

  • GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN) saw pressure on its scrip after its results, that witnessed losses widening to INR-8.4 bn in F23 from INR -7.5 bn in F22 (continuing operations).
  • The losses have further dented the balance sheet, that already looked fragile over a number of years.
  • The company also faces cash generation problems on the back of debt burden, apart from severe contingent liabilities, that could further hamper the net-worth. Investors should remain cautious.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Toshiba Corp, Polaris Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • NTT (9432 JP) – Would the Govt Sell All Its Shares? Why? How? How Long? Overhang?
  • Toshiba – Tendering Now Recommended
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer
  • Toshiba’s Board Buckles Under – As Things Stand, Board Supports and Recommends JIP Offer
  • Polaris Holdings (3010): Experiencing a Growth Renaissance


NTT (9432 JP) – Would the Govt Sell All Its Shares? Why? How? How Long? Overhang?

By Travis Lundy

  • The Kishida administration is looking for funding sources for its two big objectives – 1) raising the birthrate, 2) raising defense spending by 60% in 5yrs to 2% of GDP.
  • The second is not new. It was in an “order” PM Kishida gave to FinMin Suzuki and MinDef Hamada last November. They need ¥48trln by end 2027. 
  • Yesterday, in an LDP meeting, the idea of changing the NTT Law so the government could sell more NTT shares was mooted. It’s worth thinking about.

Toshiba – Tendering Now Recommended

By Mio Kato

  • Toshiba announced today that its board had shifted stance on JIP’s upcoming tender and would recommend shareholders tender. 
  • The special committee will review its opinion on the tender offer and based on that the company will offer another opinion when the tender commences. 
  • Despite peers rising 13-30% since April an offer price increase still looks unlikely.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

By Arun George

  • Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.
  • The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  
  • The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.

Toshiba’s Board Buckles Under – As Things Stand, Board Supports and Recommends JIP Offer

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, when the JIP Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) was announced, the Toshiba Board supported the Offer but declined, at the time, to recommend it to shareholders. 
  • “[The price] has clearly not reached the level at which it is possible to recommend to general shareholders that they tender their shares at this time.” That was then.
  • 10 weeks later and the Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.

Polaris Holdings (3010): Experiencing a Growth Renaissance

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • The waiting is over – Q4 FY3/2023 results highlighted 1) continued recovery in the hotel industry spurred by domestic and overseas traveler demand, 2) improvement in profit structure through business model transformation and increased accommodation demand has led to an increase in revenue, and 3) the completion of the acquisition of Red Planet’s business in the Philippines highlights the company’s expansion into overseas operations.
  • However, as the tourism industry in Japan is in a full-fledged recovery phase, the company believes it can achieve sustained growth.
  • Sound financial foundations – the company’s recapitalization strategy has been a success, and we maintain our view that there will be positive free cash flow generation in FY3/2024.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Douzone Bizon, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Toshiba Corp, TVS Motor , Chindata Group, Alibaba Group, Amman Mineral Internasional, Redox and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: A Change for Each Index
  • NTT (9432 JP) – Would the Govt Sell All Its Shares? Why? How? How Long? Overhang?
  • Toshiba – Tendering Now Recommended
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Significant Outperformance
  • Is Bain Permitted To Take Over Chindata?
  • China E-Commerce: Is Still a Dead Cat
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer
  • Toshiba’s Board Buckles Under – As Things Stand, Board Supports and Recommends JIP Offer
  • Amman Mineral IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
  • Redox IPO – Pricing Is Tricky


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: A Change for Each Index

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
  • There is one change currently for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet and Game indices. Large stock price moves mean no changes for the BBIG Index currently.
  • Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) has flipped from a passive sell to a passive buy over the last month and the stock could move higher from here.

NTT (9432 JP) – Would the Govt Sell All Its Shares? Why? How? How Long? Overhang?

By Travis Lundy

  • The Kishida administration is looking for funding sources for its two big objectives – 1) raising the birthrate, 2) raising defense spending by 60% in 5yrs to 2% of GDP.
  • The second is not new. It was in an “order” PM Kishida gave to FinMin Suzuki and MinDef Hamada last November. They need ¥48trln by end 2027. 
  • Yesterday, in an LDP meeting, the idea of changing the NTT Law so the government could sell more NTT shares was mooted. It’s worth thinking about.

Toshiba – Tendering Now Recommended

By Mio Kato

  • Toshiba announced today that its board had shifted stance on JIP’s upcoming tender and would recommend shareholders tender. 
  • The special committee will review its opinion on the tender offer and based on that the company will offer another opinion when the tender commences. 
  • Despite peers rising 13-30% since April an offer price increase still looks unlikely.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Significant Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 9 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • Following a strong listing, Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) should be added to the Large Cap segment of the market in July.
  • The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations by a huge margin over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking ahead.

Is Bain Permitted To Take Over Chindata?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Chinese data centre outfit Chindata (CD US) has no end of alleged suitors, rumoured to include SOE-backed China Merchants, GDS (GDS US), PE outfit PAG, and EQT (EQT SS)-backed EdgeConneX.
  • Now Bain Capital, Chindata’s largest shareholder with 42.17% (and 87.39% of the voting power) has made a non-binding proposal of $8/share per ADS, a 33% premium to last close.
  • Chindata’s board has made no decision on the proposal. It’s hardly a knockout Offer. But the key question is whether Bain will get regular approval to take Chindata private. 

China E-Commerce: Is Still a Dead Cat

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Positive surprises in profitability during Q1 2023 failed to reverse the long-term decline of Chinese e-commerce, possibly due to market recognition of the temporary impact of cost-cutting and monetization efforts.
  • In our opinion, robust growth in GMV is fundamentally essential to reverse the long-term downward trend of the Chinese e-commerce sector.
  • Chinese e-commerce sector no longer discloses GMV, but Express delivery volume indicates a 20% decline in parcel volumes compared to 2021, potentially reflecting a decrease in GMV.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

By Arun George

  • Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.
  • The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  
  • The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.

Toshiba’s Board Buckles Under – As Things Stand, Board Supports and Recommends JIP Offer

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, when the JIP Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) was announced, the Toshiba Board supported the Offer but declined, at the time, to recommend it to shareholders. 
  • “[The price] has clearly not reached the level at which it is possible to recommend to general shareholders that they tender their shares at this time.” That was then.
  • 10 weeks later and the Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.

Amman Mineral IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ) is offering 7.288bn shares in its IPO at a price range of IDR 1650-1775/share to raise between US$808-870m and valuing the company between US$8.08-8.7bn.
  • The stock will not get fast entry to global indices or local Indonesia indices (IDX30 Index/ LQ45 Index/ IDX80 Index).
  • With listing planned for 5 July, the earliest index inclusion will be in December and there are no near-term passive flows expected for the stock.

Redox IPO – Pricing Is Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, is looking to raise around US$270m in its Australia IPO. 
  • In 2022 it was ranked as the largest chemicals and ingredients distributor in Australia, as well as the 13th largest in the Asia Pacific region and the 35th largest worldwide.
  • In this note, we undertake a quick peer comaprison and talk about valuations.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China SCE and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development


Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Crypto: The Data Behind the SEC’s Big Week and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Data Behind the SEC’s Big Week


The Data Behind the SEC’s Big Week

By Kaiko

  • This has been perhaps the single most consequential week for crypto in the U.S., as the SEC charged Coinbase with operating an unregistered securities exchange and charged Binance, Binance.US, and CEO Changpeng Zhao (“CZ”) with a variety of securities law violations. 
  • Just two months ago, we chronicled the CFTC’s charges against Binance and CZ, which primarily focused on Binance’s alleged efforts to onboard high-volume U.S. traders onto Binance, rather than Binance.US (for simplicity, “Binance” will refer to the international exchange and “Binance.US” its U.S. affiliate).
  • This analysis showed that despite the creation of Binance.US in 2019, Binance’s trading had actually become more skewed towards U.S. hours, in fact resembling U.S.-based exchanges like Coinbase.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars