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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 15
0

Daily Brief India: Mahindra & Mahindra, Snowman Logistics and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Cracks Widening
  • Snowman Logistics- Forensic Analysis

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Cracks Widening

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is facing challenges in the highly competitive SUV segment in India.
  • Model-Wise data indicates declining sales volumes for some of its models such as Scorpio, XUV300, and XUV700.
  • The strategy of focusing on the higher end of the SUV market may lead to confusion and loss of market share. 

Snowman Logistics- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Snowman Logistics (SNLL IN)  is principally engaged in the business of providing integrated cold chain solution to users in India.
  • The company is in capex phase as it looks to increase the pallet capacity. 
  • Forensic concerns include inability to deliver cash flows after the last capex cycle, alongside governance issues such as directorial pay, churn in board, etc.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: PolyNovo Ltd, Aristocrat Leisure and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Australia: S&P/​ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday
  • Aristocrat Leisure: Amid Global Uncertainties, the Company Combines Safety and Growth in Gaming Tech

Australia: S&P/​ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

By Brian Freitas

Aristocrat Leisure: Amid Global Uncertainties, the Company Combines Safety and Growth in Gaming Tech

By Howard J Klein

  • Australia’s gaming equipment/systems giant is among the best poised to reward shareholders over the next 18 months as sector recovery speeds.
  • ALL’s stock performance over the past 5 years amid 3 of covid headwinds has rewarded investors with ~a 62% total shareholder return–including dividends.
  • ALL is riding the front of the cashless gaming systems tech which can grow exponentially over the next 3 years in all key global jurisdictions, Asia, US and EU.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief South Korea: S.M.Entertainment Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SM Entertainment: Kakao’s Tender Offer Proration Analysis
  • SM Ent Tendering P&L & Allocation Risk for a 30% Spread Opening

SM Entertainment: Kakao’s Tender Offer Proration Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide a proration analysis of the S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) tender offer by Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
  • Our base case assumes 71.4% of outstanding shares will participate in the tender offer, including HYBE, NPS, KB Asset Mgmt, Com2Us, and 70% of the remaining local and overseas investors.
  • There is a very high probability of a successful tender offer of SM Entertainment shares by Kakao. Post end of tender offer, its share price could fall about 5-10%, however. 

SM Ent Tendering P&L & Allocation Risk for a 30% Spread Opening

By Sanghyun Park

  • The target volume is 47.6% of the nominally estimated tendering pool size. It may go up due to retail investors’ typically low participation in tendering.
  • Other factors MAY OFFSET this. Most notable is the tendering possibility of HYBE (18.45%) and Lee Soo-man (4.96%). Combining these, the allocation rate will likely be between 50% and 60%.
  • Using this 50-60% band as a reference point, we should assess the risk of mismatching between the degree of post-tendering price correction and our loss buffer range for non-tendered shares.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief ECM: SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off
  • Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case
  • ZKH Group Pre-IPO – If Only Its Growth Was Sustainable
  • Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Wafer-Thin Margins
  • Adicon Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • DISH Network Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Potential DirecTV Merger & Other Developments
  • WestRock Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off

By Arun George

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
  • Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.

ZKH Group Pre-IPO – If Only Its Growth Was Sustainable

By Ethan Aw

  • ZKH Group (ZKH US) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming US IPO.  
  • ZKH Group is a leading maintenance repair and operations (MRO) procurement service platform in China, according to CIC, providing one-stop MRO procurement and management services and digital and fulfillment solutions.
  • ZKH Group’s revenue has been primarily driven by its product sales segment during the track record period. However, its GMV growth slowed dramatically and its sales growth doesn’t appear sustainable. 

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Wafer-Thin Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Adicon Holdings Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • ADICON Holdings Limited (ADI HK) is looking to raise about US$400m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CICC. 
  • Adicon Holdings is one of the top three independent clinical laboratory (ICL) service providers in China in terms of total revenue during the Track Record Period, according to F&S.
  • It offers comprehensive testing services primarily to hospitals and health check centers through an integrated network of self-operated laboratories across China. 

DISH Network Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Potential DirecTV Merger & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on DISH Network Corporation, a leading provider of television entertainment and technology.
  • DISH’s wireless and broadband networks, as well as DISH and Sling services, are still up and running and functioning regularly.
  • DISH Network further launched Samsung-supported sites for the DISH Wireless 5G network, kicking off Samsung’s participation in the operator’s nationwide rollout.

WestRock Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on WestRock Company, one of the largest providers of fiber-based paper and packaging solutions in the world.
  • Pension and foreign exchange rates also had a $57 million negative impact on its year-over-year consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth.
  • But Corrugated Packaging improved quarter over quarter, with North American packaging shipments increasing 2% to 373 million square feet per day.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds: Jack of All Trades? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds: Jack of All Trades?

Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds: Jack of All Trades?

By Nicolas Rabener

  • A few select multi-strategy hedge funds generated outsized returns in 2022
  • However, the average fund lost money overall in the markets.
  • The average fund can be simply replicated via the S&P 500 & cash

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Macro: This Is China’s Successor in Global Manufacturing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • This Is China’s Successor in Global Manufacturing
  • The Fed & Global Liquidity After SVB: Climate Change!
  • Silicon Valley Bank a Stern Reminder but No Cause for Panic in Asia
  • Asian Economies Back At Pre-Pandemic Levels, But Scars Remain
  • US Housing Market Forecast: Brace for a 15% Drop in Prices
  • UK: Data Issue Hawkish Reminder
  • CX Daily: China’s Financial Industry Regulators to Get Reshuffle of Responsibilities

This Is China’s Successor in Global Manufacturing

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • China’s spectacular growth window is closing and their demographics aren’t looking good. 
  • The prime candidates for becoming “the Next China” are to be found in Africa.
  • Looking at a number of quantifiable variables such as dependency rate, education, infastructure and much more, we narrow down the contenders to a couple of really intriguing African countries.

The Fed & Global Liquidity After SVB: Climate Change!

By Michael J. Howell

  • QT is effectively dead. We have believed this since the US gilt crisis in 2022, but the SVB issue now confirms it. Game over. QE is back
  • 2023 will still be volatile. The major markets will range trade, but unlike 2022, investors will enjoy large absolute gains in areas like commodities, EM and cyclicals
  • Other Central Banks will follow the US Fed. The US Fed is de facto following a bifurcated monetary policy: high rates for inflation and the Fed B/S for financial stability

Silicon Valley Bank a Stern Reminder but No Cause for Panic in Asia

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The failure of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank is unlikely to degenerate into a major financial crisis. 
  • Asian markets are set, though, to continue suffering asset price corrections and currency depreciations in the near term. 
  • Nevertheless, the metrics of Asian resilience such as strong bank capitalisation and external accounts will ensure that these spillovers will be limited in scale and duration.

Asian Economies Back At Pre-Pandemic Levels, But Scars Remain

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Most Asian economies have regained their pre-pandemic GDP levels, but substantial gaps remain relative to pre-pandemic growth trajectories. Richer economies experienced a smaller gap due to policy and structural advantages. 
  • Long-Run scars may manifest via diminished labour market, human capital, and investment prospects. Post-COVID turbulence makes things worse. 
  • With a more turbulent global environment risking a higher occurrence of economic shocks, resilience-enhancing reforms are a top priority for Asian policymakers.

US Housing Market Forecast: Brace for a 15% Drop in Prices

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Based on the stellar rise in the 30-year US mortgage rate, US home prices look extremely expensive relative to history.
  • We provide a regression model using the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and months of supply of new one-family homes to estimate the change in home prices 12 months from now.
  • This regression model suggests home prices will drop by as much as 15% from the latest-known level. iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR US) 

UK: Data Issue Hawkish Reminder

By Phil Rush

  • The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% again in Jan-23. Ongoing resilience amid high vacancies indicates it may resist rising in Q1, extending cyclical excesses.
  • Inflated pay settlements continue to drift higher, with over 70% exceeding 4% in January and signs of anchoring around 5%. Such pressures remain far too high.
  • Silicon Valley Bank’s smooth failure is unlikely to break UK excesses, so the BoE still has more work to do, with another two 25bp rate hikes in our unchanged view.

CX Daily: China’s Financial Industry Regulators to Get Reshuffle of Responsibilities

By Caixin Global

  • Cover Story: China’s financial industry regulators to get reshuffle of responsibilities

  • China’s new premier vows to support private enterprises

  • China’s Health Commission invites expert opinions on egg freezing

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Japan: SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Tokyo Broadcasting System, Nikkei 225, Trial Holdings, Sumitomo Pharma, Lasertec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off
  • TBS (9401) Selling Cross-Holdings But Don’t Hold Your Breath
  • Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets
  • Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Latuda To Drag Near-Term Performance; New Long-Term Growth Driver Added
  • Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price
  • Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Wafer-Thin Margins

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off

By Arun George

TBS (9401) Selling Cross-Holdings But Don’t Hold Your Breath

By Travis Lundy

  • Three years ago I wrote a piece about the history of activism at Tokyo Broadcasting System (9401 JP), suggesting it was not expensive but activist gains might be hard won.
  • Yesterday, TBS announced it would sell strategic cross-holdings to raise cash for investment, as per its Medium-Term Management Plan 2023, and its full-year forecast Net Profit would rise 75%.
  • That tells you what you need to know, and it guides you to the value within. 

Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan became a top laggard short bet above 28,000 given our call for a domino roll. Nikkei 26,900 was our initial downside target with a primary target of 26,000. 
  • India’s short from 18,000 is meeting the overshoot target at 17,100 with 16,800 a level to cover if not look for a tradable bounce. 17,700-800 is fresh sell resistance.
  • SPX weakness was the call from March 6-20 so we may be seeing up for some recovery actvity in Asia after the 20th but will face headwinds come June.

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
  • Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Latuda To Drag Near-Term Performance; New Long-Term Growth Driver Added

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) completed the acquisition of Myovant Sciences. Myovant’s marketed drugs Orgovyx and Myfembree are on strong growth trajectory and have the potential to become blockbuster drugs.
  • Sumitomo’s flagship drug Latuda lost patent protection in Feb’23 and has already started seeing revenue erosion. For FY23, Sumitomo has guided for Latuda revenue of $1,565 million, down 14% YoY.
  • Post Latuda, newly added drugs will not be able to fully offset the effect of Latuda revenue loss. the company is not expected to launch in-house new drug before FY25.

Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price

By Scott Foster

  • Applied Materials’ new Sculpta pattern-shaping tool could greatly reduce demand for EUV mask inspection on a medium- to long-term view. High-NA EUV is likely to do the same.
  • Lasertec’s high valuations are predicated on a multi-year high growth trajectory. That trajectory is now being called into question. 
  • We have cut our FY Jun-25 profit forecast by 32%, but the projected P/E ratio is still 40x. More downside ahead.

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Wafer-Thin Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Fosun International and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Thoughts On The Recent Pullbacks in Meidong and EVA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Thoughts On The Recent Pullbacks in Meidong and EVA
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Cracks Widening
  • TEMU: A Burden on PDD’s Profitability & Possibly a Legal Nightmare
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple & Hon Hai Push for India Labor Changes, Singapore Heavily Courting TSMC
  • Snowman Logistics- Forensic Analysis
  • New World Development(17 HK):High Leverage in HKRE but Likely the First to Rebound if Rate Peaks Out
  • Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price
  • DSV: Long-Term Structural Winner
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Latuda To Drag Near-Term Performance; New Long-Term Growth Driver Added
  • Aristocrat Leisure: Amid Global Uncertainties, the Company Combines Safety and Growth in Gaming Tech

Thoughts On The Recent Pullbacks in Meidong and EVA

By Sameer Taneja

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Cracks Widening

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is facing challenges in the highly competitive SUV segment in India.
  • Model-Wise data indicates declining sales volumes for some of its models such as Scorpio, XUV300, and XUV700.
  • The strategy of focusing on the higher end of the SUV market may lead to confusion and loss of market share. 

TEMU: A Burden on PDD’s Profitability & Possibly a Legal Nightmare

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Questionable marketing practices and cheap counterfeits could make TEMU a legal nightmare for Pinduoduo (PDD US).
  • Meanwhile, SHEIN doesn’t seem ready to give in easily to the competition. Thus, TEMU could be a significant burden on Pinduoduo’s profitability in the medium-long term.
  • Considering the discounts, advertisements and promotional spending done by TEMU in the fourth quarter, we think it is unlikely that Pinduoduo will meet the 4Q22 consensus OP of RMB 11.7bn.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple & Hon Hai Push for India Labor Changes, Singapore Heavily Courting TSMC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Apple & Hon Hai are lobbying for easier labor laws in India, setting the ground for a major shift of production to the country.
  • TSMC is being heavily courted by Singapore to set up a manufacturing facility in the city state.
  • Hon Hai will report earnings this week. We are structurally long the company despite potential for weak 4Q numbers.

Snowman Logistics- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Snowman Logistics (SNLL IN)  is principally engaged in the business of providing integrated cold chain solution to users in India.
  • The company is in capex phase as it looks to increase the pallet capacity. 
  • Forensic concerns include inability to deliver cash flows after the last capex cycle, alongside governance issues such as directorial pay, churn in board, etc.

New World Development(17 HK):High Leverage in HKRE but Likely the First to Rebound if Rate Peaks Out

By Jacob Cheng

  • NWD has the highest gearing among all HK real estate names.  It has significantly underperformed since the rate hike cycle begun.  Now it has the biggest potential to rebound
  • The stock is trading at attractive valuation, 0.27x P/B, like a distressed Chinese developer.  The major market concerns are potential earnings downgrade and dividend cut
  • I am quite convicted on the stock for rebound given 1) company has clear de-leveraging plan 2) no plans for equity-raise 3) lots of corporate actions ahead to unlock value

Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price

By Scott Foster

  • Applied Materials’ new Sculpta pattern-shaping tool could greatly reduce demand for EUV mask inspection on a medium- to long-term view. High-NA EUV is likely to do the same.
  • Lasertec’s high valuations are predicated on a multi-year high growth trajectory. That trajectory is now being called into question. 
  • We have cut our FY Jun-25 profit forecast by 32%, but the projected P/E ratio is still 40x. More downside ahead.

DSV: Long-Term Structural Winner

By Alexis Dwek

  • DSV is a global leading logistics provider with a strong track record of both organic and inorganic growth
  • With its asset-light model, DSV delivers industry-leading margins. Best in class management
  • Potential for more acquisitions. Market consolidator. Long-term structural winner. Buy and hold 

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Latuda To Drag Near-Term Performance; New Long-Term Growth Driver Added

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) completed the acquisition of Myovant Sciences. Myovant’s marketed drugs Orgovyx and Myfembree are on strong growth trajectory and have the potential to become blockbuster drugs.
  • Sumitomo’s flagship drug Latuda lost patent protection in Feb’23 and has already started seeing revenue erosion. For FY23, Sumitomo has guided for Latuda revenue of $1,565 million, down 14% YoY.
  • Post Latuda, newly added drugs will not be able to fully offset the effect of Latuda revenue loss. the company is not expected to launch in-house new drug before FY25.

Aristocrat Leisure: Amid Global Uncertainties, the Company Combines Safety and Growth in Gaming Tech

By Howard J Klein

  • Australia’s gaming equipment/systems giant is among the best poised to reward shareholders over the next 18 months as sector recovery speeds.
  • ALL’s stock performance over the past 5 years amid 3 of covid headwinds has rewarded investors with ~a 62% total shareholder return–including dividends.
  • ALL is riding the front of the cashless gaming systems tech which can grow exponentially over the next 3 years in all key global jurisdictions, Asia, US and EU.

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Equities Recoup (Some) Losses; NUGGET: ISpace to Rescue Japan’s Space Dreams and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Equities Recoup (Some) Losses; NUGGET: ISpace to Rescue Japan’s Space Dreams
  • Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Good Morning Japan | Equities Recoup (Some) Losses; NUGGET: ISpace to Rescue Japan’s Space Dreams

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.7% as Regional Bank rebounded  as Calmer heads prevailed;  CPI Print at 6% provides a dose of reality; Meta Culls again; Another Big Boeing Order.  
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 134.2;  Surprising JP Bank Sell -off yesterday to reverse;  BOJ buys ETFs for 2nd Day; Companies hiking Wages better than expected.
  • NUGGET. iSpace – Japan’s key hope to conquer space. IPO slated for early April, and a moon landing just after. Could be big.

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

By Jim Handy

  • Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
  • There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
  • Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors

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