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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Financials: Pendal Group, S&P 500, Binance Coin, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Pendal/Perpetual: Revised Terms As Supreme Court Orders Scheme To Proceed
  • Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court
  • Buy This Give Back
  • The Winners and Losers in a Post-FTX World
  • HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Pendal/Perpetual: Revised Terms As Supreme Court Orders Scheme To Proceed

By David Blennerhassett

  • Under the revised terms, Pendal (PDL AU) shareholders will receive 1 Perpetual (PPT AU) share for every 7 Pendal shares plus $1.65/share cash versus 7.50 Pendal shares and $1.976 cash.
  • Separately, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled that Perpetual cannot delay the Scheme on the expectation of a more favourable Offer for the company. 
  • The first court hearing for the Scheme has been deferred until next week to seek orders convening the Scheme Meeting and for the despatch of the Scheme Booklet to shareholders.

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court

By Arun George

  • Pendal Group (PDL AU) entered a revised SID with Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU). The revised offer consists of scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.650).
  • Separately, the court found that Pendal could seek a range of remedies in addition to the A$23 million break fee should Perpetual terminate the scheme.
  • While Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT could yet derail the scheme by lobbing another bid for Perpetual, the unprecedented court ruling makes it more challenging and costly. 

Buy This Give Back

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US equities give back post PPI is a buying opportunity within our Q4 bull framework. The conviction trade is to sell USD upticks with lower yields in store into December.
  • Sell the USD into Dec which supports turn around plays in Asia. DXY 103 is our bull support to stage a fresh rise. How will yields respond?
  • SPX 3,850 buy support with 4,100/200 the Q4 target to top build ahead of a fresh Q1 bear cycle. Summer bounce similarities.

The Winners and Losers in a Post-FTX World

By Kaiko

  • The aftershocks of the FTX fraud continue to ripple through crypto, with entities such as Genesis Trading and the FTX-owned exchange Liquid halting withdrawals over the last couple of days.
  • It’s likely that it will take months or years to determine who the real winners and losers of the biggest scandal in crypto history will be, but there are some interesting market dynamics to be aware of in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of FTX.
  • Using Kaiko’s CeFi and DeFi data, we have identified some important trends that give an indication as to who may stand to win and lose in the future.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.
  • What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.
  • The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Halcyon Agri, Delhivery, Growatt Technology, PTB Group Ltd, Ametek Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Halcyon Agri: Hainan Rubber’s Conditional MGO
  • Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder
  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • PTB Group: Scheme Approved. Now For The Dividend
  • Ametek Inc: Recent Acquisitions & Other Developments

Halcyon Agri: Hainan Rubber’s Conditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) has announced Sinochem, its largest shareholder with 65.2%, has entered into a SPA to sell 36% of shares out to China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH).
  • Upon completion of the SPA, Hainan Rubber will make an MGO, conditional on a 50% tendering acceptance.  Sinochem has provided an undertaking not to tender its remaining 29.2% stake. 
  • The Offer Price? The SPA price is US$0.315/share and the Offer Price will be the SGD equivalent at the close of the SPA.

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

By Sumeet Singh

  • In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
  • Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
  • In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we will look at assumptions and share our thoughts on valuation.

PTB Group: Scheme Approved. Now For The Dividend

By David Blennerhassett

  • PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU) shareholders comprehensively approved the PAG Scheme on the 16 November. Shares will be suspended from trading at the close on the 30 November.
  • However, before the trading halt, PTB’s board is expected to declare a final (and fully franked) dividend to Scheme shareholders up to the amount of A$0.03/share. 
  • Expect that declaration to occur on or around Monday, 28 November. 

Ametek Inc: Recent Acquisitions & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Ametek’s stock price has surged as the company delivered excellent results with strong sales growth as well as solid operational execution, thus leading to high earnings, both of which were well above market expectations.
  • Ametek also sees continued broad-based and strong demand across its diversified niche markets that leads to impressive organic order growth.
  • The Electronic Instruments Group of the company delivered excellent operating performance having broad-based and continued strong growth.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Bio Techne Corp, Boston Scientific, China Resources Pharmaceutical, Stryker Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Bio-Techne Corp: Advanced Cell Diagnostics RNAscope System Developments & Other Drivers
  • Boston Scientific: The Lux-Dx ICM Launch & Other Drivers
  • China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) – Here Are the Concerns
  • Stryker Corporation: The Monterey AL Launch & Other Drivers

Bio-Techne Corp: Advanced Cell Diagnostics RNAscope System Developments & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Techne has been going through a tough 2022 and witnessed a slow summer especially in the European markets as well as Covid-related shutdowns in China.
  • The company did manage to achieve some organic revenue growth but failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company recently announced the release of the automated codetection assays for the company’s Advanced Cell Diagnostics RNAscope system for in-situ hybridization.

Boston Scientific: The Lux-Dx ICM Launch & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Boston Scientific reported a mixed set of results as it surpassed Wall Street expectations on the revenue front but delivered an earnings miss in light of the ongoing supply chain and macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Overall, company operational sales grew, and organic sales also grew.
  • Six of the eight business units of the company have grown organically in the double-digits.

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) – Here Are the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The distribution business is stable, but it’s difficult to achieve high growth/profits due to industry trend. Therefore, the valuation of this business is hard to increase.
  • The performance of pharmaceutical manufacturing business is important, which largely determines the overall profit margin. But it actually depends on what the subsidiaries can contribute, who are facing different challenges.
  • China Resources Pharmaceutical may need to improve its vision of asset selection and its ability to judge and grasp the long-term trend of the industry. The current valuation isn’t attractive.

Stryker Corporation: The Monterey AL Launch & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Stryker delivered a mixed set of results for the quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations on the revenue front.
  • The demand for the company’s capital products stayed quite strong in this quarter, as viewed by the growth of double-digit of its medical division.
  • Also, the Instruments business experienced challenges in the supply chain mainly related to the company’s capital products.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Oriental Land, Alibaba Group, Taste Gourmet Group, Shimamura, Porsche AG, Adeia, Lear Corp, Capri Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q23, Better Growth, Better Margin, 38% Upside
  • Taste Gourmet: Cash Generation Par Excellence
  • Shimamura Set for Another Record
  • STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible
  • ADEA: Free Cash Flow & Valuation
  • Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments
  • Capri Holdings: Major Drivers

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

By Travis Lundy

Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q23, Better Growth, Better Margin, 38% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • Revenue began to grow in 2Q23 after the zero growth in 1Q23.
  • The operating margin improved to 12.1% in 2Q23 versus 7.5% in 2Q22.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 38% and a price target of HK$108.

Taste Gourmet: Cash Generation Par Excellence

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK)  reported its H1 2023 result with profit of 32 mn HKD up 28% YoY, backed by subsidies due to restrictions earlier in the year.
  • Net cash rose by 52 mn HKD (almost 12.4% of market capitalization) to 117 mn HKD HoH (28% of market cap). Nine mn HKD in subsidies are outstanding.
  • The company declared 4.8 cents of dividend (9.1% annualized yield), in addition to repurchasing and canceling >2% of the shares outstanding recently.

Shimamura Set for Another Record

By Michael Causton

  • Like Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) and Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. (2792 JP), Shimamura (8227 JP) has been a beneficiary of both household budget worries during Covid and inflation concerns since. 
  • The apparel retailer has also worked hard to develop better cost performance ranges and more exciting marketing through collaborations with influencers, helping regain footfall levels.
  • Shimamura has clearly regained momentum and looks set to continue to benefit from consumer fears over inflation and ongoing shifts in spending towards low-price retailers.

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
  • Including the addition of Porsche AG (P911 GR), there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. 
  • In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.

ADEA: Free Cash Flow & Valuation

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ADEA reported third quarter results that still included the financial results of its products business prior to the spin-off. ADEA generates revenue from IP licenses, creating a steady revenue stream
  • ADEA expanding its base of licensees over the next year should set a pathway to ADEA reaching baseline revenue of $500 million a year from $375 million currently
  • ADEA applying free cash flow to reducing its debt balance should yield a higher valuation for the stock price

Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Lear Corporation saw a significantly improved set of results in the last quarter and it managed to surpass Wall Street expectations on all fronts.
  • The improved results reflect higher production volumes as well as its strong new business backlog.
  • Core operating earnings and sales increased and in both e-Systems and seating, operating margins improved as compared to the previous year.

Capri Holdings: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Capri Holdings delivered quite a strong result which happened to be an all-around beat.
  • With the three pillars, Greca, Virtus, and La Medusa making significant progress, the goal of the company is to position Versace as the prominent luxury leather house.
  • Capri also expanded its core lines that incorporate iconic house codes for broadening the reach of Versace.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Private Markets: AI-Driven Property Portal MOGUL.sg Nets US$6.5M Series A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • AI-Driven Property Portal MOGUL.sg Nets US$6.5M Series A
  • KKR Leads US$48M Series C Round of Indonesian EKYC Company Privy
  • SG’s ADDX Raises $20m in Round Led by Korea’s KB Securities

AI-Driven Property Portal MOGUL.sg Nets US$6.5M Series A

By e27

  • MOGUL.sg’s 3D map supports searches with an immersive experience to help prospective buyers visualise the properties and their surrounding areas better.

  • MOGUL.sg, an AI-driven property search portal in Singapore, has raised S$9 (US$6.5) million in its first-ever funding round.
  • Launched in 2018, MOGUL.sg aims to make property searches easy with smart keywords, property tagging, and a specially curated agent concierge team to assist homeowners.

KKR Leads US$48M Series C Round of Indonesian EKYC Company Privy

By e27

  • Privy has 30M+ verified users and 1,800 enterprise consumers and processes 40M+ digital signatures per year.

  • Jakarta-based digital signature and identity company Privy has secured US$48 million in a Series C funding round.
  • Privy will use the capital to support the development of its new consumer and enterprise products. The company also intends to expand into overseas markets to accelerate growth further.

SG’s ADDX Raises $20m in Round Led by Korea’s KB Securities

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore private market exchange ADDX has secured US$20 million in a pre-series B extension round.

  • The new capital injection comes on top of the US$58 million that ADDX initially raised in May, the company said in a release.

  • Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, ADDX uses blockchain and smart contract tech to automate the manual processes in private market investing.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat Leisure, New Hope, Rio Tinto.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief ESG: Quarterly Disclosure Discussions Leave Investor Perspectives Behind and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Quarterly Disclosure Discussions Leave Investor Perspectives Behind

Quarterly Disclosure Discussions Leave Investor Perspectives Behind

By Aki Matsumoto

  • FSA, which wanted to add Sustainability section, could reach a compromise with companies that wanted to eliminate quarterly disclosures, but but the discussion of the substantive issues took a backseat.
  • Since it would be impossible for the supervisory authority not to take action in cases that may occur in future despite empirical evidence, FSA will impose some penalties for misstatements.
  • Continuity of information is of utmost importance because if a company that has disclosed quarterly stops doing so, investment decisions will be affected by reduced information available for judging stock-valuation.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief ECM: Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments
  • Bio-Techne Corp: Advanced Cell Diagnostics RNAscope System Developments & Other Drivers
  • Qorvo Inc: Major Drivers
  • Roku Inc: Expansion Of Free Streaming In Mexico & Other Drivers
  • Unity Software: Native Game Engine Support For Windows & Other Drivers
  • Match Group: Major Drivers

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we will look at assumptions and share our thoughts on valuation.

Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Lear Corporation saw a significantly improved set of results in the last quarter and it managed to surpass Wall Street expectations on all fronts.
  • The improved results reflect higher production volumes as well as its strong new business backlog.
  • Core operating earnings and sales increased and in both e-Systems and seating, operating margins improved as compared to the previous year.

Bio-Techne Corp: Advanced Cell Diagnostics RNAscope System Developments & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Techne has been going through a tough 2022 and witnessed a slow summer especially in the European markets as well as Covid-related shutdowns in China.
  • The company did manage to achieve some organic revenue growth but failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company recently announced the release of the automated codetection assays for the company’s Advanced Cell Diagnostics RNAscope system for in-situ hybridization.

Qorvo Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Qorvo delivered an excellent result with its quarterly revenue as well as EPS above the market expectations.
  • Revenue in high-performance analog was broad-based, with the strength primarily in high-power applications and defense.
  • In Advanced cellular, Qorvo enjoyed quite a big customer ramp in the quarter.

Roku Inc: Expansion Of Free Streaming In Mexico & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on streaming major, Roku.
  • The company had a strong first quarter of 2022 with Platform revenue up 39% yearly, driven by increased content distribution and advertising revenue.
  • As one of the industry’s top platforms for streaming TV, the company anticipates long-term growth in active users and platform revenue.

Unity Software: Native Game Engine Support For Windows & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Unity Software delivered a mixed set of results as its revenues failed to meet market expectations but its net loss was narrower than expected.
  • The company continued with a robust customer pull in its newer Artistry and Digital Twins segments.
  • We provide the stock of Unity with a ‘Buy’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Match Group: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Match Group is currently operating in a challenging macro-economic environment and its stock price has been tumbling over the past few months.
  • Excluding the forex impact, Match Group delivered double-digit growth given the fact that Tinder has been performing quite well.
  • We provide the stock of Match Groups with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Defending the Gold Premium and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Defending the Gold Premium
  • The Winners and Losers in a Post-FTX World

Defending the Gold Premium

By Kaiko

  • When you look around the world for a big, liquid, globally accepted safe haven, there is only one, and that is gold, which continues to reassert its status as the asset of last resort.
  • Pre-1970, in the days of the gold standard, gold formally enjoyed this role.
  • Today, after a 50-year break, the free market is putting gold back onto the pedestal where it belongs. 

The Winners and Losers in a Post-FTX World

By Kaiko

  • The aftershocks of the FTX fraud continue to ripple through crypto, with entities such as Genesis Trading and the FTX-owned exchange Liquid halting withdrawals over the last couple of days.
  • It’s likely that it will take months or years to determine who the real winners and losers of the biggest scandal in crypto history will be, but there are some interesting market dynamics to be aware of in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of FTX.
  • Using Kaiko’s CeFi and DeFi data, we have identified some important trends that give an indication as to who may stand to win and lose in the future.

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Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident
  • China’s Efforts to Prop Up Property Market Fall Short
  • Airline Travel in Asia Set to Hit Two-Thirds of Pre-Covid Level: Report
  • China Eases Some Restrictions on Travel Agencies’ Cross-Province Services

Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERNIGHT:  Hawkish Fed speak weigh on markets but digested as signs of economic weakening-housing, shipping; Markets and Tech resilient. AMAT 1Q guidance supportive; FTX debacle: “Complete failure of controls !”
  • JAPAN:  Flat open indicated; JPYUSD ¥140 handle; Likely takes the lead from the US; Expect supportive bids into weekend with AMAT guidance

China’s Efforts to Prop Up Property Market Fall Short

By Caixin Global

  • New property sales in China continued to plunge in October despite government attempts to stabilize the market, with top builders faring better than their peers.
  • The 100 largest developers — measured by sales value in the first 10 months of the year — recorded a combined 556 billion yuan ($76.7 billion) in sales last month, down 28.4% year-on-year and 2.6% month-on-month
  • China’s housing market, once a piston of the country’s economic growth engine, has lost much of its drive since last year following regulatory moves to clamp down on speculation and excessive borrowing.

Airline Travel in Asia Set to Hit Two-Thirds of Pre-Covid Level: Report

By Tech in Asia

  • Asia’s tourism industry has been resilient amid the global macroeconomic slowdown, research from JP Morgan shows.

  • Titled Asia Airlines and Airports, the report projects that airline travel in the region will hit two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
  • Thailand, which is poised to meet its 2022 foreign arrivals target of 10 million tourists, has been an especially strong market in the region.

China Eases Some Restrictions on Travel Agencies’ Cross-Province Services

By Caixin Global

  • China has eased some restrictions on the domestic tourism industry after policymakers tweaked the country’s “zero-Covid” policy.
  • The change came after the central government issued a new 20-point planaimed at making counter-Covid measures more targeted and less disruptive to the economy.
  • Travel agencies are now eagerly awaiting details from local authorities about what extent they can resume organizing cross-region group tours.

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