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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: XL Axiata and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Following the Road to Convergence Fuelled by Data

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Following the Road to Convergence Fuelled by Data

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata 2Q2022 results reflected a better pricing environment and the success of its focus on high-quality service, with the highest data speeds, leading to higher subs and ARPUs. 
  • The company continues to migrate its subscribers to 4G, and build out its 4G BTS whilst shutting down its 3G towers, which should be positive for the quality of service.
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) should be seen as the leader in providing converged services in Indonesia, with the acquisition of Link Net accelerating its lead, which will boost long-term profitability.

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Japan: Softbank Group, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank (9984 JP) – This Time, It’s Chime
  • More Companies Submitted Shareholder Proposals, but All Were Rejected. Where Is the Problem?

Softbank (9984 JP) – This Time, It’s Chime

By Victor Galliano

  • US fintech Chime, another high-profile fintech in Softbank’s Vision Fund 2 portfolio, sees its secondary market valuation in the private market fall by nearly 50% on a year-to-date basis
  • Chime had been planning to IPO in 1H 2022, with its IPO valuation estimated at close to USD40bn; poor market conditions have led to the IPO being shelved
  • Chime’s reduced valuation is another hit to Softbank’s portfolio, which has yet to feature a recent “down round”, and which we believe negatively impacts its Vision Fund 2 in particular

More Companies Submitted Shareholder Proposals, but All Were Rejected. Where Is the Problem?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even though shareholder proposals have increased, only 77 of the more than 2,000 companies with a fiscal year ending in March have submitted shareholder proposals, or only a few percent.
  • Japanese institutional investors begins to examine the content of proposals and exercise their voting rights. It’s serious matter that until now they haven’t exercised them in accordance with Stewardship Code.
  • It will still take substantial amount of time to move away from a shareholder meeting protected by a cross-shareholding structure and toward a shareholder meeting that promotes dialogue with shareholders.

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief China: WM Motor Technology Co Ltd, Link REIT, Sinotrans, Road King Infrastructure, Guangzhou R&F Properties and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WM Motor Holding IPO – The Negatives – Has Ample Issues to Contend With
  • HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC
  • Sinotrans (598 HK): Still a Very Decent Performance
  • Road King – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties

WM Motor Holding IPO – The Negatives – Has Ample Issues to Contend With

By Sumeet Singh

  • WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. 
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.
  • But as of yesterday’s market, I see that my efforts were rather over-optimistic.
  • The note is what is in front of me rather than speculating we are at the change in trend.

Sinotrans (598 HK): Still a Very Decent Performance

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Recurring profit for Sinotrans (598 HK) increased 16.4% in 1H22 and improved to 16.6% in 2Q22. The declaration of an interim dividend also highlights management’s confidence.
  • We expect a pick-up in 2H22 as negative impact of the lockdowns faded. Also, contribution from DHL-Sinotrans should return to growth as international express regain momentum.
  • Strong financial position should allow for higher dividend payout, and currently it is already yielding 10.4%. Its 3.6x PER and 0.4x P/B are cheap, especially relative to ROE of 11.3%.

Road King – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Road King’s H1/22 results were acceptable in our view. The company reported robust EBITDA growth and strong margin expansion, likely supported by deliveries of the higher-margin Hong Kong projects sold in FY 2021. Net debt improved marginally, in line with the stronger earnings.

That said, Cash/ST Debt was inadequate at 0.8x. Road King may face a funding gap for repayment of its USD 358 mn bonds in February 2023, though it should be able to bridge the gap through better cash collections in H2/22 or potential external financing (asset sales or equity issuances). Positively, the company has a well-spread debt maturity profile, with only one offshore bond coming due in 2023 and the next (USD 480 mn) due in September 2024.

Morning Views Asia: Guangzhou R&F Properties

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Snowflake Inc, Nike, Paycom Software, Levi Strauss & Co, Colgate Palmolive Co, Abbott Laboratories and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • US CHIPS Act: Long Intel Vs. Short TSMC or UMC?
  • Snowflake FY2Q23 Earnings: High in the Hierarchy of Needs
  • Nike Inc: Innovation For The Pregnant Women Niche & Other Drivers
  • Paycom Software: The Beti Upside
  • Levi Strauss & Co: Collaboration With Reese Cooper & Other Drivers
  • Colgate-Palmolive: What Recent Results Mean For Long-Term Holders
  • Abbott Laboratories: Capacity Expansion For Diabetes Care & Other Drivers

US CHIPS Act: Long Intel Vs. Short TSMC or UMC?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Intel and Brookefield Asset Management recently announced that they intend to jointly invest US$30 billion into building Intel foundries in Arizona, leveraging on the US CHIPS Act.
  • Although inflation and declining consumer demand continue to affect all chipmakers, U.S. strategic objectives and policies will set Intel on a new growth trajectory and competitive position in our view.
  • A Long Intel/ Short Taiwan semiconductor strategy present a compelling opportunity. We prefer Long Intel vs. Short UMC, however, we expect Long Intel vs. Short TSMC to also be profitable.

Snowflake FY2Q23 Earnings: High in the Hierarchy of Needs

By Aaron Gabin

  • Product revenues beat consensus by 7% and EBIT margins by 5%, while full year guidance was and margins were raised ~2% ahead of consensus.
  • Fears of a consumption model driven slowdown (like Datadog) did not play out, and cRPO growth actually accelerated QoQ to 81%.
  • Data sharing is picking up with larger customers, with 65% of $1M+ customers utilizing stable edges.

Nike Inc: Innovation For The Pregnant Women Niche & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Nike Inc had another stellar quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings with plenty of new innovations coming out.
  • A new lifestyle show, Nike Spark Flynit, was launched that introduces the latest innovation of NIKE Running with the Spark cushioning system.
  • This quarter, in Jordan, Luka Doncic debuted his anticipated signature shoe Luka 1, during the NBA Playoff.

Paycom Software: The Beti Upside

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Paycom Software continues to witness a strong demand for automation of management of human capital and self-service payroll with more companies embracing its various solutions, especially Beti.
  • The success to attract new business wins as well as robust demand for employee-focused easy-to-use solutions, drives the company’s revenue growth.
  • We provide the stock of Paycom Software with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Levi Strauss & Co: Collaboration With Reese Cooper & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Levi Strauss & Co continued to see a strong consumer demand in the last quarter as the management continued executing its strategic initiatives that are viewed clearly in the results.
  • Its strategic priorities continue to be focused on margin expansion with a direct-to-consumer (D2C) first approach.
  • We provide Levi Strauss with a ‘Buy’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Colgate-Palmolive: What Recent Results Mean For Long-Term Holders

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) is hardly a business for risk-seeking and short-term oriented investors.
  • While the management has given us a master class in long-term value creation, the share price is also unlikely to make anyone rich quickly.
  • On the contrary, CL is an investment akin for anyone looking for steady value accumulation, superior risk-adjusted returns and a wide moat.

Abbott Laboratories: Capacity Expansion For Diabetes Care & Other Drivers

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Abbott Laboratories had a strong financial performance in the recent quarter led by the development of medical, diagnostics, and pharmaceutical devices.
  • During this quarter, the company is continuing to strengthen its Medical Device portfolio with new innovative products.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief India: Escorts Kubota, Edelweiss Financial Services, Balaji Speciality Chemicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Alarming Allegations by Dealers
  • Edelweiss: Credit Business Is Normalizing; Rest of the Businesses Are Scaling Up Well
  • Balaji Speciality Chemicals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Alarming Allegations by Dealers

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) ‘s domestic market share as of FY22 stood at 10.3 % vs 12% in FY20 against the aspiration of 15% for FY22. 
  • Our interactions with various dealers across key northern and eastern states suggest caution and structural inability to regain market share loss.
  • Post equity infusion, Kubota Corp (6326 JP) is probably in for more surprises than what it might have initially hoped for. 

Edelweiss: Credit Business Is Normalizing; Rest of the Businesses Are Scaling Up Well

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss’ credit business is now normalizing with GNPA at 2.5% and NNPA at 1.8%. Credit costs came in negative as asset quality is improving and excess provisioning is being normalized. 
  • Rest of the businesses continue to scale up well. Edelweiss is among the fastest grower in the mutual fund and insurance businesses. Wealth Management business continues to do well.
  • At current valuation, Edelweiss is available cheap and as per our estimates, an investment in it has potential to more than quadruple by the end of FY25.

Balaji Speciality Chemicals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Balaji Speciality Chemicals (1742663D IN) is looking to raise about US$126m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Financial and HDFC Bank. 
  • Balaji Speciality Chemicals (BSC) is the sole manufacturer in India of niche chemicals such as Ethylenediamine, Piperazine (Anhydrous), Diethylenetriamine, Amino Ethyl Ethanol Amines and Amino Ethyl Piperazine, according to CRISIL.
  • The chemicals it manufactures are import substitutes and are used in end-use industries such as speciality chemicals. Its customer base grew from 45 in FY20 to 182 in FY22.

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Aug 26
0

Most Read: Healthcare & Medical Investment Corporation, Pendal Group, AMMB Holdings, Pegatron Corp, Ramsay Health Care, SJM Holdings, Softbank Group, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Preview: A Few Inclusion Possibilities
  • Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual’s Bump Should Get the Deal Done
  • KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: The Gloves Could Come Off
  • FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Sep 22 Capping: Massive Negative Flows for Farglory, Greatek, & Elan
  • Ramsay’s Overdue Update on the KKR Proposal
  • Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 25th August 2022
  • Pendal Enters Scheme With Perpetual
  • Softbank (9984 JP) – This Time, It’s Chime
  • CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Preview: A Few Inclusion Possibilities

By Brian Freitas

Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual’s Bump Should Get the Deal Done

By Brian Freitas

  • Pendal Group and Perpetual Ltd have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.
  • While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.
  • In the short-term expect short covering on Pendal Group (PDL AU) and increased shorts on Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) as arbs step in to close the gap.

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: The Gloves Could Come Off

By Brian Freitas

FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Sep 22 Capping: Massive Negative Flows for Farglory, Greatek, & Elan

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ramsay’s Overdue Update on the KKR Proposal

By Arun George

  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) notes that discussions with KKR are ongoing, but the indicative proposal is held up by due diligence access to Ramsay Generale de Sante (GDS FP).
  • KKR proposed an alternative proposal that the Board rejected as “meaningfully inferior.” KKR remains interested, and its shenanigans are likely a move to nudge down the price.
  • At the last close, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-3% estimated decline) is lower than the upside (+20%) to the indicative proposal.

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

By Brian Freitas

  • Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.
  • In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.
  • Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 25th August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Pendal Enters Scheme With Perpetual

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 4 April, asset manager Pendal (PDL AU)‘s board unanimously determined the indicative cash/scrip Offer proposal from Perpetual (PPT AU) undervalued the current and future value of the company.
  • Pendal And Perpetual have now entered into a SID such that Pendal shareholders will receive 1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal shares plus $1.976 cash for each Pendal share.
  • The negotiation clincher was the increase in the cash component by A$0.306/share. Should the deal complete, Pendal will hold 47% in the enlarged entity.

Softbank (9984 JP) – This Time, It’s Chime

By Victor Galliano

  • US fintech Chime, another high-profile fintech in Softbank’s Vision Fund 2 portfolio, sees its secondary market valuation in the private market fall by nearly 50% on a year-to-date basis
  • Chime had been planning to IPO in 1H 2022, with its IPO valuation estimated at close to USD40bn; poor market conditions have led to the IPO being shelved
  • Chime’s reduced valuation is another hit to Softbank’s portfolio, which has yet to feature a recent “down round”, and which we believe negatively impacts its Vision Fund 2 in particular

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
  • At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x – the average for top consumer discretionary names.
  • Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Credit: Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Azure Power Global Ltd, China Oil And Gas

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s H1/22 results were strong as expected. This was supported by increased production following the ConocoPhillips Indonesia (CIHL) acquisition in March, as well as the high oil-price environment. We expect the company to deleverage further going forward, supported by earnings growth, strong OCF generation and debt repayments. The full-year FCF deficit should also narrow to a mildly negative level. We note positively management’s intentions to reduce debt, including to fully repay the USD 850 mn in debt taken on for the CIHL acquisition by 2024. Cash/ST Debt was inadequate, but we do not foresee any near-term refinancing risks.

Morning Views Asia: Azure Power Global Ltd, China Oil And Gas

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: How Chinese Private Equity Firms Got Scammed by Their Own Sales Teams and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: How Chinese Private Equity Firms Got Scammed by Their Own Sales Teams
  • Singapore Financials: Surging Higher
  • CX Daily: Abuse Victims’ Convictions for Bigamy Highlight Hurdles to Divorce in China

CX Daily: How Chinese Private Equity Firms Got Scammed by Their Own Sales Teams

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: How Chinese private equity firms got scammed by their own sales teams

  • Southwest China grapples with wildfires during record heat wave

  • Another Henan official probed for links to rural banking scandal

Singapore Financials: Surging Higher

By Steven Holden

  • Allocations in Singapore Financials continue their turnaround. From a low of 0.67% in early 2021, average weights have soared to 1.81%, closing in on the highs of 2%+ in 2018
  • Clear active rotation, with the percentage of managers exposed to the sector increasing from 45.2% in 2021 to 63.4% today.
  • Strong ownership growth seen in DBS and UOB, with +10.75% and +6.45% of managers opening positions over the last 6-months.  SGX also saw ownership rise.

CX Daily: Abuse Victims’ Convictions for Bigamy Highlight Hurdles to Divorce in China

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: Abuse victims’ convictions for bigamy highlight hurdles to divorce in China

  • Huawei founder Ren declares a battle for survival

  • Singapore’s leader urges China, U.S. to avoid mishaps as regional tensions escalate

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Series (Part 3)- Focus Is on Japan; Top Picks Are Mostly in The Pink of Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Series (Part 3)- Focus Is on Japan; Top Picks Are Mostly in The Pink of Health
  • US-China Decoupling: The Impact on China Healthcare

APAC Healthcare Series (Part 3)- Focus Is on Japan; Top Picks Are Mostly in The Pink of Health

By Tina Banerjee

  • The Japanese yen has been depreciating at a rate never seen before. Amid weakening domestic currency, Japan’s healthcare stocks have mostly outperformed their regional peers, due to their export-led growth.
  • Cash rich and fundamentally strong healthcare companies in Japan, with large international revenue exposure should be the key focus areas now.
  • Two of our top picks are sitting on double-digit gains, while the other two are facing temporary setbacks. Long-term fundamental story remains intact for all of them.   

US-China Decoupling: The Impact on China Healthcare

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • As tensions rise between China and the US, there is a possibility of decoupling. The cooperation and competition between the two countries in healthcare are facing a new change.
  • We analyzed the potential impact of decoupling in terms of imports and exports on API, generic drugs and medical device/consumables, technology transfer, talent flow, communications, bilateral investment, supply chain, etc.
  • The intention behind the US provocation is to contain China’s rise. However, the importance of China’s supply chain is irreplaceable. Ultimately, US’s Allies will face a choice-who to stand with?

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Investment Thesis Post-Ethereum 2.0 Merge and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Investment Thesis Post-Ethereum 2.0 Merge
  • The Metaverse for Augmented Reality

Investment Thesis Post-Ethereum 2.0 Merge

By Edward Wu

  • The Merge narrative is the short-term factor driving the ETH price. In the mid-to-long term, structural supply reduction provides a long-term bull case for ETH.
  • Staked ETH derivatives’ price will converge to 1:1 with ETH , purchasing liquid staked ETH derivatives at a discount is a better strategy to accumulate ETH long-term position.
  • Liquid staking protocol, Lido Finance, will enjoy a tailwind after the merge with a surge in staking ratio. LDO token is a high beta play of ETH’s bull case.

The Metaverse for Augmented Reality

By Coinstack

  • Imagine for a moment an entirely new type of social network. On this new social network, the point isn’t to get stuck in an endlessly scrolling feed in your bedroom.
  • Instead, the whole point is to actually go outside with your phone, smartwatch, or Augmented Reality (AR) glasses and interact in the real world — with digital content that was posted into a specific place in the real world by friends, creators, and businesses.
  • If you can’t go outside, you can always use AR at home using Peer’s patent-pending holodeck AR experience.

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