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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 02
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Ausnutria Dairy Corp, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE-UNSP ADR and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (1 Jan): APAC Resources, Ausnutria, Pharmaron, Joinn Laboratories
  • A House of High Style

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (1 Jan): APAC Resources, Ausnutria, Pharmaron, Joinn Laboratories

By David Blennerhassett

A House of High Style

By subSPAC

  • Luxury brands had a rather fashionable year in 2022, bouncing back from the pandemic slump with the help of pent-up demand and lockdown savings spent on travel-worthy threads.
  • However, even the resilient luxury market isn’t immune to the macroeconomic forces at play, from inflation to the war in Ukraine and the impending recession in the US and Europe.
  • It is a surprise then that Luxury Fashion house Lanvin Group decided to plunge into the public markets despite the choppy economic waters.

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Jan 02
0

Daily Brief Financials: Jb Financial Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • A third of the way through the review period, we see three potential changes. There are a few stocks that are close to inclusion and could lead to more changes.
  • There should be a couple of index changes prior to the June review due to the merger of Meritz Financial Group, Meritz Securities and Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance.
  • Passive trackers need to trade between KRW 5-23bn on the stocks and short interest is quite low on the potential inclusions and exclusions.

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Jan 02
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Jb Financial Group, Sun Kwang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes Keep Rolling In

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • A third of the way through the review period, we see three potential changes. There are a few stocks that are close to inclusion and could lead to more changes.
  • There should be a couple of index changes prior to the June review due to the merger of Meritz Financial Group, Meritz Securities and Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance.
  • Passive trackers need to trade between KRW 5-23bn on the stocks and short interest is quite low on the potential inclusions and exclusions.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes Keep Rolling In

By Brian Freitas

  • One third of the way through the review period for the June rebalance, we see 9 potential changes to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
  • One way turnover is estimated at 3.3% and the impact on the expected deletions is a lot higher than the impact on the expected inclusions.
  • The potential adds have massively outperformed the potential deletes over the last year. We’d wait for a reversal before entering a trade here – worth monitoring.

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Jan 02
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

By Brian Freitas

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Jan 02
0

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Ausnutria Dairy Corp and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba 4Q Ecommerce Outlook
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (1 Jan): APAC Resources, Ausnutria, Pharmaron, Joinn Laboratories

Alibaba 4Q Ecommerce Outlook

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • December GMV was below expectations, due to elevated case counts after the relaxation of the covid restriction
  • With high return rate and more merchant supports, gap between GMV growth and CRM growth remained large in 4Q. 
  • Long-Term wise, Alibaba will continue losing market share while PDD’s market share may potentially surpass JD. 

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (1 Jan): APAC Resources, Ausnutria, Pharmaron, Joinn Laboratories

By David Blennerhassett

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Jan 01
0

Daily Brief Private Markets: Smilegate Holdings: A Giant Korean Game Company in Partnership with Amazon Games and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Smilegate Holdings: A Giant Korean Game Company in Partnership with Amazon Games

Smilegate Holdings: A Giant Korean Game Company in Partnership with Amazon Games

By Douglas Kim

  • Established in 2002, Smilegate Holdings is well known for its globally popular games including Crossfire (a first person shooter game), Lost Ark (MMORPG), and Epic Seven.
  • In August 2020, Smilegate RPG entered into a partnership with Amazon Games, reaching an exclusive publishing agreement for North America and Europe.
  • At a P/S valuation of 6-7x using company’s 2021 sales of 1.4 trillion won would suggest implied valuations of 8 trillion won to 10 trillion won for Smilegate Holdings.

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Jan 01
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: Premium/Discounts Mostly in the Middle, ChipMOS Opportunity
  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Strong Start of FY23; Pipeline Progress Enhances Conviction
  • Elan Microelectronics: Capacity for Share Buybacks in 2023E, Intel Event Could Provide Cycle Clarity
  • TMT Short Idea: Pinterest
  • Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Quanta and Pegatron Shares Lagging Apple Decline?

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
  • How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
  • Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Taiwan Dual-Listings: Premium/Discounts Mostly in the Middle, ChipMOS Opportunity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC ADRs are trading at a small premium; 4Q22 results will be released on January 12th.
  • UMC ADRs are trading at a discount; 4Q22 results will be released on January 16th.
  • ChipMOS ADRs are trading at a decent discount, opening a trade opportunity.

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Strong Start of FY23; Pipeline Progress Enhances Conviction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) is recording consistent profitable revenue growth backed by Scenesse. 2023 will be marked by several clinical trial progress and data readouts from the company.
  • The first readouts of the DNA repair program on xeroderma pigmentosum patients treated with afamelanotide are expected to be available early in the new year.
  • Clinuvel has started FY23 on a strong note, with Q1 recording highest ever customer receipts. Current cash balance of A$138 million represents sufficient funding for nearly eight quarters.

Elan Microelectronics: Capacity for Share Buybacks in 2023E, Intel Event Could Provide Cycle Clarity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We believe Elan Microelectronics has capacity for share buybacks in 2023E, and that it could be in shareholder interests.
  • Even in the coming 2023E down-year, we believe the company could generate over NT$1.7bn in EBITDA. Its balance sheet will remain net-cash.
  • The company is in a strong position as a leader in touch screens, touch pads, and fingerprint sensors. Intel’s upcoming January webinar could provide clarity on the industry cycle.

TMT Short Idea: Pinterest

By Aaron Gabin

  • Pinterest has rallied 40% over the past 5 months on hopes that its new CEO Bill Ready will pivot the company from a pure advertising model to an ecommerce juggernaut.
  • Altering what consumers use online platforms for is exceedingly difficult and rarely succeeds: TripAdvisor, Yelp, Groupon, Stitchfix, eBay.
  • Ultimately, unless Pinterest convinces its users to more frequently utilize the platform, efforts to boost monetization will likely fall flat.

Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Quanta and Pegatron Shares Lagging Apple Decline?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Apple shares have fallen recently, nearing 52-week lows as analysts have been cutting share targets on China production uncertainty and weak consumer end-market demand.
  • Key Apple suppliers Quanta and Pegatron, in particular, appear to have not yet reacted to the declining market sentiment towards Apple.
  • Investors can consider Shorting Quanta and Pegatron vs. a Long position in Apple. We see limited potential for positive news flow for the stocks through January.

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Jan 01
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

By Brian Freitas

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Jan 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Investment Opportunities in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Investment Opportunities in 2023
  • India Australia ECTA- Threat to Domestic Wine Leaders?

China Investment Opportunities in 2023

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • China’s re-opening in 2023 will lead to gradual economy recovery. GDP growth is expected to rebound to ~4.5% from 3.3% in 2022. 
  • China’s earnings growth will resume, and equity market valuation is at an attractive level now.
  • Near-Term re-opening related investments opportunities and long-term growth themes of the China market.

India Australia ECTA- Threat to Domestic Wine Leaders?

By Nitin Mangal

  • The India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (INDAUS ECTA) has come into force this week onward.
  • Out of the plethora of goods and services to be influenced, we find the wine industry especially in India could be an interesting beneficiary.
  • Given that Australia is one of the bigger wine exporters, expansion into the Indian market might change the dynamics of domestic wine industry, and players like Sula Vineyards (1332009D IN). 

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Jan 01
0

Daily Brief Macro: Late-2022 Policy Developments Further Complicate 2023 Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Late-2022 Policy Developments Further Complicate 2023 Outlook

Late-2022 Policy Developments Further Complicate 2023 Outlook

By Said Desaque

  • Passage of a $1.7 trillion spending bill by the US Congress complicates the Fed’s task of restoring price stability. Higher borrowing could push up interest rates and crowd-out private investment.
  • The yen’s depreciation before October was accentuated by Japanese financial institutions hedging against losses on US Treasuries. Little evidence exists of significant liquidation of US financial assets by Japanese investors.
  • China’s decision to cease its zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19 will be positive for the global economy in 2023, but, initially, rising infection rates could be a headwind.  

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