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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Appier Group, Nippon Steel Trading Corporation, OZ Minerals Ltd, S.M.Entertainment Co, Varun Beverages Ltd, Swire Pacific (B), Conexio Corp, WCP, Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Appier (4180) – Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk
  • JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance
  • Nippon Steel & Mitsui & Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium
  • BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects
  • Mandatory Offer Arrives in Korea: Detailed Rules & Trading Ramifications
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations
  • Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only
  • Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
  • TIGER (WISE) Secondary Battery ETF Rebalancing in January: Names to Watch
  • JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

Appier (4180) – Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

By Travis Lundy

  • Appier Group (4180 JP) had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.
  • The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.
  • Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday’s BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest “risk” here.

JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance

By Travis Lundy

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) was the target of activist Murakami-san in August 2022. They threatened a poison pill. Murakami-san sold, then bought to 19.5%. They negotiated. He won.
  • His result excluded others. The market did not take it well. Murakami-san rejected taking a 1% hit to original terms (vs reference NAV). JAFCO went back to the drawing board. 
  • Then submitted to greenmail at a higher price. The first buyback was agreed at ¥2,500 vs ¥2,651 NAV. The new one? ¥2,730-2,840 vs ¥2,513 NAV. Inexplicable – Spectacularly Bad Governance.

Nippon Steel & Mitsui & Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium

By Travis Lundy

  • Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) today announced they would buy out Nippon Steel & Sumikin Bussan (9810 JP), their steel-trading subsidiary. 
  • The shares trade near an all-time high, but Nippon Steel is paying an 87% premium. (Interestingly, the high end of the DCF ranges suggest a 280% premium)
  • On fundamentals, this could have been higher, but given the shareholder structure, I expect it is a done deal as-is. The Tender Offer should start in February 2023.

BHP & OZL Enter Scheme Implementation Deed – Timing, Risk, & Index Effects

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$28.25/share (5wks after I said 3-6 weeks).
  • All terms are confirmed and there may be a fully-franked dividend up to A$1.75/share which would reduce terms to A$26.50. The OZL Directors unanimously recommend. 
  • Anti-Trust approvals are needed in Brazil & Vietnam, other standard conditions, and the OZL Scheme Meeting should be late March early April. I expect this is done.

Mandatory Offer Arrives in Korea: Detailed Rules & Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • The target is those who purchase 25% or more of the shares of a listed company and become the largest shareholder with management rights.
  • The minimum volume of a mandatory offer is [(50% of total shares + 1 share) – the management right purchase volume].
  • We will be exposed to pro-rata risk, so it will be essential to figure out the nature and propensity of the shareholder composition to estimate the tendering rate in advance.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

By Brian Freitas

  • Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
  • One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
  • Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.

Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only

By Travis Lundy

  • In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)).
  • The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.
  • Swire had been buying both every day. But they’ve been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.

Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good. 
  • However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive. 
  • And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests. 

TIGER (WISE) Secondary Battery ETF Rebalancing in January: Names to Watch

By Sanghyun Park

  • The key to this rebalancing is the inclusion of WCP, which satisfies the requirements of minimum listing period and secondary battery sales amount.
  • As a hedge for the LONG WCP position, we can use Soulbrain and Solus Advanced, whose passive outflow is relatively high among those of a similar size to WCP.
  • Among large caps, we should pay attention to L&F, Posco Chemical, and Iljin Materials. However, we should be cautious about approaching them as an active trading target.

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
  • The revised tender offer’s primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
  • The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board’s ability to enhance value.

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Daily Brief United States: Futu Holdings Ltd, Black Knight Inc, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Kulicke And Soffa Industries,, Micron Technology, Ethereum, Bitcoin Pro, Splunk Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion
  • MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor
  • Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables
  • Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain
  • Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023?
  • Developing Economies: A Proven Use Case for Crypto
  • Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


MergerTalk:Why Black Knight May Be As Safe As Houses Even If Regulators Stop Its Merger With ICE

By Robert Sassoon

  • We think that a ~40% spread overstates the risk of this deal not moving to completion. 
  • The horizontal integration aspects of this transaction can be remedied, but this is a largely vertical merger transaction which regulators may struggle to prove will lead to monopolistic behavior.
  • Even if the  ICE merger is ultimately blocked,  BKI has other supporting factors that could drive upside – an attractive valuation and a potential revival of interest from other parties 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
  • MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
  • Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

Micron Fiscal Q1: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gain

By Kevin George

  • Micron Technology, Inc. reported fiscal Q1 2023 earnings and announced cost-cutting measures.
  • Macroeconomic trends are still a drag, according to the company.
  • The company also announced cost cutting measures for the next year’s fiscal year.

Smartkarma Webinar | Is There Still Hope for Crypto in 2023?

By Smartkarma Research

Is there still hope for Crypto in 2023? In the next webinar, we speak with Insight Provider Edward Wu on just that, as he shares with us the landscape of the Crypto industry in 2023. From the problems with the current crypto industry, to Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, Edward will share with us his thoughts in this next episode of our Webinar Wednesdays. Have any burning questions about Crypto, DeFi trading or Ethereum Layer 2 solutions? Get them answered in the live Q&A that will conclude the session. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 4 January 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Edward Wu is an experienced financial professional with strong research experience in macroeconomics, credit as well as corporate banking. He is a true believer in the future of Crypto/DeFi and foresee widely adoption of tokenization of real-world assets. He is currently actively researching in the crypto field, mainly focused on DeFi, DAO governance, and tokenomic design.


Developing Economies: A Proven Use Case for Crypto

By Kaiko

  • Some people think of crypto as purely an investment opportunity. A highly volatile asset class that comes with risk, but eventually the returns will be worth it.
  • However, this perception is somewhat naive, as it ignores one of crypto’s biggest use cases: financial freedom.
  • The concept of financial freedom is hard to grasp for the privileged of us living in Europe or the US – despite record levels of inflation, we are not financially oppressed, and we can bank on our savings being relatively intact next year.

Splunk Is A Rare Tech Growth Opportunity For 2023

By Kevin George

  • Splunk is stronger with Q3 earnings and guidance. The company is shadowed by takeover talk.
  • The company has a strong cloud market make it a buy. The firm is shadowing by takeover talks.
  • The firm has been in the news for more than two years.

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Daily Brief Japan: Conexio Corp, Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
  • JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer
  • Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima

Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)

By Travis Lundy

  • Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good. 
  • However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive. 
  • And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests. 

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
  • The revised tender offer’s primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
  • The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board’s ability to enhance value.

Conexio Corporation (9422 JP) JPY1,911 Tender Offer from Nojima

By Arun George

  • Conexio Corp (9422 JP) has recommended Nojima Corp (7419 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,911 per share, an 59.1% premium to the undisturbed price (22 December).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer was set in motion due to Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s desire to exit. Itochu tendering its 60.34% stake and an attractive offer, suggests a done deal. 

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Doctor Anywhere Acquires SG Healthcare Provider and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Doctor Anywhere Acquires SG Healthcare Provider, Nets $38.8m Funding
  • Aktivolabs scores US$10M Series A to help populations manage risk of chronic diseases

Doctor Anywhere Acquires SG Healthcare Provider, Nets $38.8m Funding

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-headquartered Doctor Anywhere (DA) is set to acquire medical services group Asian Healthcare Specialists (AHS) in a cash deal valued at about S$109 million (US$76.7 million) at an offer price of S$0.188 (US$0.13) per share.
  • The healthtech firm has also announced a US$38.8 million series C1 financing round led by Novo Holdings to partly fund the AHS acquisition and accelerate growth.
  • According to DA’s financial statements, the company’s revenue hit S$31.9 million in 2021, an over 2.8x growth from the previous year

Aktivolabs scores US$10M Series A to help populations manage risk of chronic diseases

By e27

  • Singapore-based digital health-science company Aktivolabs has secured US$10 million in a Series A round of investment led by Mitsui & Co, Adaptive Capital Partners, and SEEDS Capital.
  • The company will develop the existing algorithm and data-analytics programme to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of predicting, preventing and self-managing chronic disease using digital biomarkers.
  • The platform harnesses real-time digital health data elements in a low-touch, cost-effective manner with measurable actuarial and actionable value to life and health insurers.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Attitude Toward Information Disclosure May Make a Further Difference in Stock Valuations and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Attitude Toward Information Disclosure May Make a Further Difference in Stock Valuations

The Attitude Toward Information Disclosure May Make a Further Difference in Stock Valuations

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The less frequently information is disclosed, the greater the impact of single disclosure on stock prices. Fewer quarterly disclosure reduces trading volume, which will have negative impact on stock valuations.
  • Companies listed on U.S. market will continue quarterly disclosure, while companies with limited human resources won’t adopt quarterly disclosure. Even within the same sector, companies may adopt different disclosure attitudes.
  • Metrical’s analysis shows that the IR factor is highly positively correlated with Tobin’s q. Also, different disclosure stances may emerge depending on the ratio of foreign shareholders.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022…And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022…And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023
  • Good Morning Japan |Stocks (Finally) Catch a Break; Cyclicals Rebound; And..we Resume in 2023 !
  • Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023
  • China’s Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?
  • Korea Biotech: A Pair Trade Between Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) And SK Bioscience (302440 KS)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022…And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • The 2022 vintage of “5 High Conviction Ideas” had the weakest performance since 2017, with only China Shineway posting a positive return
  • Olam, Rex and Starhub all declined approximately 16% in FY22
  • Our 2023 vintage will hopefully perform better with 4 out of 5 favorites in the commodity space

Good Morning Japan |Stocks (Finally) Catch a Break; Cyclicals Rebound; And..we Resume in 2023 !

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: SPX +1.5%. Reflex US Rally post recent sell-off. Energy, Industrials, Tech lead in the Beta rally; Cons Confidence BTE; Nike +12% rpt inspires; Micron -ve after hrs
  • JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132  (for now); BOJ related/JGB  rates aside dominate narrative;  INBOUND tourists return;  Decarb spend to accelerate; Debt rating D/G for Rakuten
  • DAILY NUGGET: Yōkoso!  Japan. The November tourist numbers saw a doubling MoM to 934,500 visitors. However, the Chinese visitors are not here yet. It likely takes some time…

Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

By Victor Galliano

  • Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions
  • For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list
  • Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation

China’s Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
  • We expect 5-10% drop in China’s export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
  • Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.

Korea Biotech: A Pair Trade Between Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) And SK Bioscience (302440 KS)

By Tina Banerjee

  • Here we present a pair trade idea on Korea biotech companies. Investors can accumulate Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) and short SK Bioscience (302440 KS).
  • Celltrion Healthcare has a vast portfolio of biosimilars, which have dominant market positioning. The company is expanding geographical presence. US launch of Humira biosimilar is the major upcoming catalyst.
  • SK Bioscience is a late entrant in the overcrowded COVID-19 vaccine market. The company has temporarily halted production of its COVID-19 vaccine due to falling demand.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds

NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Nikkei was touted as our top short bet in Asia and has panned out nicely. 27k sell resistance for a test on sub 26k to probe for a bull reversal.
  • USD/JPY sell an uptick near 134. PT at sub 131 and 129.50. Jury still out as to the policy impact on global rates/equities. We are trading a lot like 2018.
  • Taiwan and Nifty short targets are reiterated. SPX and NDX levels are in line but price action remains poor to bearish.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance
  • Appier (4180) – Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk
  • Nippon Steel & Mitsui & Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium
  • ENEOS to Buy Out Tatsuta Electric (5809) At 74% Premium
  • Nippon Steel Trading’s (9810 JP) JPY9,300 Tender Offer from Nippon Steel
  • Warrego Energy: Reinhart Disses Strike’s “Superior” Offer
  • Mandatory Offer Arrives in Korea: Detailed Rules & Trading Ramifications
  • Thailand SET 50 Dec 22 Rebal: Good Hit Rate, Successful Pre-Event Trade, Unwind Now
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations
  • TIGER (WISE) Secondary Battery ETF Rebalancing in January: Names to Watch

JAFCO (8595) Succumbs to Even Worse Greenmail – SPECTACULARLY BAD Governance

By Travis Lundy

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) was the target of activist Murakami-san in August 2022. They threatened a poison pill. Murakami-san sold, then bought to 19.5%. They negotiated. He won.
  • His result excluded others. The market did not take it well. Murakami-san rejected taking a 1% hit to original terms (vs reference NAV). JAFCO went back to the drawing board. 
  • Then submitted to greenmail at a higher price. The first buyback was agreed at ¥2,500 vs ¥2,651 NAV. The new one? ¥2,730-2,840 vs ¥2,513 NAV. Inexplicable – Spectacularly Bad Governance.

Appier (4180) – Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

By Travis Lundy

  • Appier Group (4180 JP) had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.
  • The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.
  • Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday’s BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest “risk” here.

Nippon Steel & Mitsui & Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium

By Travis Lundy

  • Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) today announced they would buy out Nippon Steel & Sumikin Bussan (9810 JP), their steel-trading subsidiary. 
  • The shares trade near an all-time high, but Nippon Steel is paying an 87% premium. (Interestingly, the high end of the DCF ranges suggest a 280% premium)
  • On fundamentals, this could have been higher, but given the shareholder structure, I expect it is a done deal as-is. The Tender Offer should start in February 2023.

ENEOS to Buy Out Tatsuta Electric (5809) At 74% Premium

By Travis Lundy

  • ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and subsidiary JX Nippon Mining & Metals Corporation announced today it would buy out minorities in miner and refiner Tatsuta Elec Wire & Cable (5809 JP)
  • The Tender Offer comes at a 74% premium for their 37% sub. 5% off a 2yr high, 10% off a 20-year high. This is likely to be a “done deal”. 
  • JX probably starts with ~55% in the bag out of the 66.7% minimum. But the tender doesn’t start for ~ 6 months. Separately, importantly, there is a precedent here.

Nippon Steel Trading’s (9810 JP) JPY9,300 Tender Offer from Nippon Steel

By Arun George

  • Nippon Steel & Sumikin Bussa (9810 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender at JPY9,300 per share, an 87.5% premium to the undisturbed price and an all-time high.
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP) will retain its 19.93% stake and together with Nippon Steel account for 55.01% of outstanding shares. Tender starts in late-February subject to antitrust clearances.

Warrego Energy: Reinhart Disses Strike’s “Superior” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After the Gina Reinhart-backed Hancock bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.28/share, in cash, Beach Energy (BPT AU) declined to match the revised Offer.  
  • With Hancock seemingly in the driver’s seat, Strike Energy (STX AU), with 19.9% of shares out, proposed a one-for-one scrip Offer, with an indicative price of A$0.335/share.
  • Hancock has responded that its Offer provides certainty, with cash, whereas Strike’s proposal does not. Now 15.84% of the register has come out in support of Hancock’s Offer.

Mandatory Offer Arrives in Korea: Detailed Rules & Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • The target is those who purchase 25% or more of the shares of a listed company and become the largest shareholder with management rights.
  • The minimum volume of a mandatory offer is [(50% of total shares + 1 share) – the management right purchase volume].
  • We will be exposed to pro-rata risk, so it will be essential to figure out the nature and propensity of the shareholder composition to estimate the tendering rate in advance.

Thailand SET 50 Dec 22 Rebal: Good Hit Rate, Successful Pre-Event Trade, Unwind Now

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX) for the December 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday (20th December 2022) after the close.
  • There will be four ADDs/DELs for the SET 50 index. 
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

By Brian Freitas

  • Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
  • One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
  • Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.

TIGER (WISE) Secondary Battery ETF Rebalancing in January: Names to Watch

By Sanghyun Park

  • The key to this rebalancing is the inclusion of WCP, which satisfies the requirements of minimum listing period and secondary battery sales amount.
  • As a hedge for the LONG WCP position, we can use Soulbrain and Solus Advanced, whose passive outflow is relatively high among those of a similar size to WCP.
  • Among large caps, we should pay attention to L&F, Posco Chemical, and Iljin Materials. However, we should be cautious about approaching them as an active trading target.

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Daily Brief Credit: Indika Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Indika Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co

Indika Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view Indika Energy as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale, thanks to its robust balance sheet following the December 2017 acquisition of a controlling stake in PT Kideco Jaya Agung (to 91%) at a low price. We note favourably Kideco’s position as the third-largest coal producer in Indonesia, as well as the low-cost structure (first quartile; profitable even during the coal downturn in the past few years). It is one of the few HY coal credits that survived the downturn. Indika’s balance sheet appeared to be fairly levered in the past, as debt-free Kideco had not been consolidated. However, the balance sheet was transformed by the stake acquisition. The business profile also changed from that of an energy (primarily coal) services company to that of an integrated coal producer. The balance sheet is now robust, with a net cash position. In the medium term, Indika is diversifying away from coal by acquiring and investing in non-coal businesses.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on Indika is “Positive”. This is based on: [1] the strong rally in coal prices, which should further boost the company’s financial risk profile in FY 2022; and [2] Indika’s commitment to improving its business diversification and ESG standards.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.

We revise our recommendation to “Hold” on the INDYIJ notes from “Buy” on the INDYIJ 8.25 25.


Morning Views Asia: First Pacific Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Sula Vineyards IPO Trading – Not a Whole Lot to Cheer About and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Sula Vineyards IPO Trading – Not a Whole Lot to Cheer About
  • Bionote IPO Trading – Weakest Demand Even After Cutting Price and Size
  • Protean EGov Technologies Pre-IPO – A Key Service Provider but Earnings Have Lagged

Sula Vineyards IPO Trading – Not a Whole Lot to Cheer About

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sula Vineyards raised around US$117m in its India IPO, although demand wasn’t all that great.
  • Sula Vineyards (SV) distributes wines under a bouquet of brands. In addition to its flagship brand “Sula,” popular brands include “RASA,” “Dindori”, “The source,” “Satori”, “Madera” & “Dia”. 
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about demand and trading dynamics.

Bionote IPO Trading – Weakest Demand Even After Cutting Price and Size

By Clarence Chu

  • Bionote (377740 KS) raised US$72.2m in its Korean IPO. The IPO had consisted of both a primary and secondary selldown.
  • Bionote is an integrated producer of diagnostics test products and biocontent products. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Protean EGov Technologies Pre-IPO – A Key Service Provider but Earnings Have Lagged

By Sumeet Singh

  • Protean eGov Technologies (PET) is looking to raise up to US$600m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Protean eGov Technologies (PET) is a key IT-enabled solutions company in India engaged in conceptualizing, developing and executing nationally critical greenfield technology solutions. 
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

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