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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Kum Yang Co Ltd, SK Innovation, Hanmi Science and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Early Preview: Few Names Stand Out
  • Korea FSC: Official Mandate of Appraisal Rights in Split-Offs & Trading Ramifications
  • Korea Biotech & Healthcare: A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm

KOSPI 200 Rebalancing Early Preview: Few Names Stand Out

By Sanghyun Park

  • One name is screened to newly join the index. That is Kum Yang (001570 KS). With a YTD performance of over 400%, it is currently in very safe territory.
  • Two constituents stand out as likely deletes at this point: Zinus (013890 KS) and Hwaseung Enterprise (241590 KS). The market cap gap with the next ones in line isn’t small.
  • Kum Yang’s passive impact is substantially low due to the recent surge in TV. But if it moves sideways and TV stabilizes downward, we should build preemptive flow trade setups. 

Korea FSC: Official Mandate of Appraisal Rights in Split-Offs & Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • The exercise price is the arithmetic average of weighted average prices for the past two months, the past month, and the past week from the day before the board resolution.  
  • Considering the governance structure of most local companies, a split-off will still be more likely to be preferred than a spin-off. Split-offs will emerge despite the mandate of appraisal rights.
  • We should look into staggering spread openings, with the pricing done on a two-month window, as a downward price revision will likely intensify toward the announcement with mandatory appraisal rights.

Korea Biotech & Healthcare: A Pair Trade Between Hanmi Science and Hanmi Pharm

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Hanmi Science (long) and Hanmi Pharm (short). There are three major reasons we like this pair trade.
  • First, the gap between these two stocks have widened too much in the past year. Second, Hanmi Science may pay higher cash dividends due to inheritance tax issue. 
  • Third, Hanmi Pharm’s valuations remain lofty and Hanmi Science’s valuation discount relative to its historical valuation has become more compelling. 

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Daily Brief United States: Adobe Systems, Match Group Inc, Netflix Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Adobe
  • TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Match
  • Netflix AVOD Not Chill

TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Adobe

By Aaron Gabin

  • Adobe is down 42% in 2022, and down 22% relative to the S&P. 
  • Valuation has been cut in half, and investors have voiced concerns and skepticism about its (incredibly) expensive acquisition of Figma in September.
  • Adobe remains better positioned than most large cap software peers as it maintained its guidance from October Analyst Day, highlighting the secular tide behind digital transformation efforts remains strong. 

TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Match

By Aaron Gabin

  • Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&P. 
  • Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.
  • 13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF

Netflix AVOD Not Chill

By Aaron Gabin

  • Multiple negative data points have come out reflecting limited initial uptake for Netflix’s ad-based tier.
  • (We think) Netflix lack of AVOD uptake is due to it being fully saturated in its major markets wheras competing services starting from scratch have higher AVOD uptake.
  • Lack of incremental subs from AVOD points towards a weaker than expected 4Q22 and downside to guidance…not good for a stock that has ripped since 2Q22 earnings.

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Daily Brief India: Bata India Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India Channel Insight #46 | Bata India, Campus Activewear

India Channel Insight #46 | Bata India, Campus Activewear

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Consumer sentiment is soft, but competition is limited for both Bata India Ltd (BATA IN) and Campus Activewear (CAMPUS IN) 
  • Bata enjoys good relationships with its distributors and franchisees, traction for offline sales channels is strong.
  • Campus is in an aggressive expansion mode, with leadership in the sports shoe segment driving sales.

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Daily Brief Japan: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging – More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging – More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei reported this AM that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.
  • The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.
  • The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. 

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Daily Brief China: Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway-A, Xiabuxiabu Catering Mgt Chn Hldgs, Shandong Fengxiang, REPT BATTERO Energy, ClouDr Group, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Zx Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Northbound Stock Connect Expansion: Potential Changes in 2023
  • China Catering Sector: In Search of Alpha
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): SPA Completed. Now For The Unconditional MGO
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK)’s Share Transfer to PAG Complete, Unconditional MGO
  • REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • ClouDr Group (9955.HK) – Positive Profit Alert for 2022, Thoughts on Business Model and the Concerns
  • Morning Views Asia:
  • Zx Inc Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Northbound Stock Connect Expansion: Potential Changes in 2023

By Brian Freitas

  • On Monday, the CSRC and the SFC agreed to further deepen mutual stock market access between the Mainland and Hong Kong and promote the development of both capital markets.
  • For Northbound Stock Connect, the eligible universe has been widely expanded to include constituents of the SSE A Share Index and the SZSE Composite Index.
  • There are 1,112 stocks that join the eligible universe, and 938 stocks currently meet the criteria for Northbound Stock Connect inclusion. There are implications for inclusion in global indices.

China Catering Sector: In Search of Alpha

By Eric Chen

  • Sentiment driven rally is fading. Although COVID exit remains swing factor, individual company’s performance will increasingly be driven by their business models.
  • Our proprietary store expansion framework suggests divergent growth outlook for major players – stretched for Haidilao, moderate for Jiumaojiu and Yum China, and ample for Xiabuxiabu.
  • Xiabuxiabu is our top pick due to its strong turnaround not yet priced in depressed valuation. We also like Yum China but stay cautious on Jiumaojiu and Haidilao on valuation.     

Fengxiang (9977 HK): SPA Completed. Now For The Unconditional MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • A little over two months since PAG Capital won the judicial auction to acquire 70.92% of Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), the acquisition has now cleared all regulatory clearances, including SAMR.
  • PAG will now be required to make an unconditional Offer for all H-shares at HK$1.5132/share. Separately, PAG intends to delist Fengxiang which involves Scheme-like delisting resolutions. 
  • This is done. The timing for approving the SPA was bang-on with my expectation.

Fengxiang (9977 HK)’s Share Transfer to PAG Complete, Unconditional MGO

By Arun George

  • PAG completed the auction procedures for the acquisition of a 70.92% stake in Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK). This will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$1.5132 per H Share.
  • As PAG has no compulsory acquisition rights, it will also seek shareholder delisting approval. The MGO is not conditional on the approval of the delisting resolution.
  • The composite document is to be despatched on or before 28 December. At last close and for an end-of-January payment, the gross and annualised spread is 5.1% and 65.9%, respectively.

REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT HK) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Morgan Stanley, and Citic Securities.
  • REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT) is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of EV/ESS lithium-ion battery products such as battery cells, modules and packs. 
  • As per F&S, it was amongst the top ten lithium-ion battery manufacturers in China as per installations for new energy application in 2021.

ClouDr Group (9955.HK) – Positive Profit Alert for 2022, Thoughts on Business Model and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • ClouDr released positive profit alert for 2022. We think ClouDr is in a virtuous circle based on its solid business model. It’s a matter of time before ClouDr achieves breakeven. 
  • As the number of hospitals/pharmacies newly deploying SaaS modules increases, and the existing B-end users continue to receive new patients,ClouDr is able to absorb new C-end users at low cost.
  • When more powerful competitors come in and carve up B-end market, ClouDr’s long-term prospects may be uncertain, but its valuation shouldn’t be much lower than Ping An Good Doctor. 

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


    Zx Inc Pre-IPO Tearsheet

    By Ethan Aw

    • Zx Inc (ZX CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and China Securities International. 
    • Zx Inc runs three different businesses, namely an interactive entertainment business (Tan Wan), an instant food brand (Zha Zha Hui) and pop toy business (Bro Kooli). 
    • Its interactive entertainment business Tan Wan focuses on publishing game products while while leveraging its precision marketing, in-depth operation and brand incubation capabilities. 

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    Daily Brief Private Markets: Hyperlounge Raises US$8M in Series A to Grow Beyond Being a Business Analytics Platform and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

    In today’s briefing:

    • Hyperlounge Raises US$8M in Series A to Grow Beyond Being a Business Analytics Platform
    • Venteny Raises $21m Via Indonesia IPO

    Hyperlounge Raises US$8M in Series A to Grow Beyond Being a Business Analytics Platform

    By e27

    • Hyperlounge, a real-time data analysis and management insights SaaS platform for small and medium-sized (SME) business executives, announced that it had raised US$8 million in Series A investment.
    • The funding round is led by Altara Ventures, together with FuturePlay, StoneBridge, BA Partners, RyuKyung PSG, and Nextrans.
    • South Korean software reseller UClick joined the funding round as a strategic investor.

    Venteny Raises $21m Via Indonesia IPO

    By Tech in Asia

    • The firm, which provides growth funding and human resource services, went public under the ticker symbol VTNY.
    • Venteny offered around 930 million shares – representing 15% of its enlarged share pool – at a price of 360 rupiah (US$0.023) apiece.
    • The company raised US$21 million, pegging its valuation at around US$158 million.

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    Daily Brief ESG: The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders and more

    By | Daily Briefs, ESG

    In today’s briefing:

    • The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders

    The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders

    By Aki Matsumoto

    • Both Kappa Kreate and ATOM are almost completely controlled by their parent company, ColoWide, and we cannot expect corporate governance practices that would actually be a relief to minority shareholders.
    • With the parent company in full control, the subsidiary’s minority shareholders are likely to be aware that the interests of the parent take precedence over those of the minority shareholders.
    • Parent company shareholders shouldn’t tolerate continuing to own subsidiaries that damage their interests. The problem isn’t a problem of the interests of the subsidiary’s shareholders, but of the parent’s shareholders.

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    Daily Brief ECM: Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) IPO: Pandemic Blemishes Near-Term Growth Prospect and more

    By | Daily Briefs, ECM

    In today’s briefing:

    • Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) IPO: Pandemic Blemishes Near-Term Growth Prospect
    • CIFI Holdings Placement – Won’t Do Much to Alleviate Debt Profile. Latest Deal Underwater
    • Dmall Pre-IPO Tearsheet
    • Pre-IPO Shandong Boan Biotechnology – Conservative About the Outlook

    Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) IPO: Pandemic Blemishes Near-Term Growth Prospect

    By Tina Banerjee

    • Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) is the largest provider of traditional beauty services and the fourth largest non-surgical aesthetic medical service provider in China.
    • The company seeks to raise $300 million from an IPO in Hong Kong market. Morgan Stanley, Haitong International, and Huatai International are the joint sponsors for the proposed IPO.
    • COVID-19 has hurt recent financial performance of the company and forced it to shut many of the stores in multiple locations. Further, stretched valuation make the IPO unappealing to investors.

    CIFI Holdings Placement – Won’t Do Much to Alleviate Debt Profile. Latest Deal Underwater

    By Clarence Chu

    • CIFI Holdings (884 HK) is looking to raise US$127m in a top-up placement. Proceeds from the raising are expected to refinance its existing loans and for general corporate purposes.
    • While the deal represents just 2.1 days of three month ADV, total shares offered would amount to 7.5% of current mcap. 
    • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

    Dmall Pre-IPO Tearsheet

    By Ethan Aw

    • Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Credit Suisse and CMB International.
    • Dmall provides cloud-based, end-to-end SaaS platforms purpose-built for the local retail industry. 
    • Its service offerings consist of a retail core service cloud, an e-commerce service cloud and a marketing and advertising service cloud. 

    Pre-IPO Shandong Boan Biotechnology – Conservative About the Outlook

    By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

    • Without the advantages in product efficacy, production capacity, clinical progress and speed of approval, Boan’s products have lost their pricing power in both China and overseas markets.
    • Due to the lack of differentiation and frontier enough target layout, the product commercialization potential is bound to be more easily questioned, with limited value in the long term.
    • Even if Boan could go public successfully, investors may not be able to achieve the expected returns because of the unfriendly market sentiment and a lack of liquidity in HKEX. 

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    Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China South City and more

    By | Credit, Daily Briefs

    In today’s briefing:

    • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

    Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

    By Charles Macgregor

    Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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    Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | No Shortage of Equity Negative News; BOJ to Stay Pat; Bullish 2023 ? and more

    By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

    In today’s briefing:

    • Good Morning Japan | No Shortage of Equity Negative News; BOJ to Stay Pat; Bullish 2023 ?
    • Interpretation of China’s Central Economic Work Conference for 2023
    • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 12/19

    Good Morning Japan | No Shortage of Equity Negative News; BOJ to Stay Pat; Bullish 2023 ?

    By Mark Chadwick

    • OVERSEAS:  SPX down 4 in a row, -20%YTD;  Higher UST Yields and Negative Homebuilder print pressure equities; Chief Twit’s followers want him out;  China hints strong economic support in 2023
    • JAPAN:  BOJ to stay pat; JP FY23 Budget largest ever; Kawasaki Kisen to lift ShrHldr Returns; Subaru gives up on PHVs;  Toyota CEO thinks mkt not ready for EVs
    • DAILY NUGGET: We take a look at the upcoming boom in Hydrogen in the push to decarbonise; Our preferred play is MHI (7011)

    Interpretation of China’s Central Economic Work Conference for 2023

    By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

    • The annual Central Economic Work Conference was held to plan for 2023. We analyzed our interpretation. Sometimes we need to be “romantic” to understand some basic assumptions.
    • China’ll be more committed to economic growth after the big shift in COVID policy. However, we may face a situation where both domestic and external demand would weaken next year.
    • When paying attention to changes, we should see whether the external environment supports such changes. For investors, our advice is that many things should be done according to the trend.

    Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 12/19

    By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

    • “Fed economic projections published December 2021: In 2022 the Fed funds rate will be less than 1% & GDP growth will be 4%.
    • In December 2022 the Fed funds rate is now 4.25% and 2022 GDP growth they now show is at 0.5%. Why is anybody still listening to these people?
    • Nobody is asking for perfection which is impossible, but the Fed has again, and they’ve done this multiple times including last year with inflation, produced forecasts not even remotely close to reality. Their forecasts are meaningless with zero predictive value.

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