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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Equity Capital Markets: FWD Group Holdings, Paladin Energy, Guanze Intelligent Medical Information Industry Holding, V3 Brands Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • FWD Pre-IPO – Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever
  • Paladin Energy Placement – Slightly Speculative but Momentum Has Been Strong
  • Pre-IPO Guanze Intelligent Medical Information Industry – Advantages in Shandong Cannot Hide Worries
  • V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Negatives – While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

FWD Pre-IPO – Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever

By Sumeet Singh

  • FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.
  • FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the updates from the HK filing.

Paladin Energy Placement – Slightly Speculative but Momentum Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Paladin Energy (PDN AU) aims to raise around US$150m (A$200m) via selling 277.8m new shares at A$0.72/per share, 8.9% discount to last close.
  • The proceeds will be geared towards restarting its Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia and for funding working capital and fees. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the firm’s track record and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Pre-IPO Guanze Intelligent Medical Information Industry – Advantages in Shandong Cannot Hide Worries

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Guanze relies heavily on sale of medical imaging film products in Shandong Province, and occupies a leading market position in Shandong based on its accumulation in local networks and resources.
  • However, the market size in Shandong is limited, with growth ceiling.With the trend of new technology and unproven ability to expand nationwide,there’s a risk of being eliminated in long term.
  • In this context, Guanze could face a lot of challenges and uncertainties. Therefore, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.

V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Negatives – While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

By Clarence Chu

  • V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.
  • V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Tabcorp Ltd, Crown Resorts, Ahlada Engineers, Yashili International Holdings, V3 Brands Asia, Nokian Renkaat Oyj, MK Restaurants Group, Astro Malaysia Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tabcorp To Split Lotteries and Wagering Businesses
  • Tabcorp (TAH AU): Spin-Off Upside & Index Implications
  • Crown Resorts Scheme Meeting on 29 April, IE Opinion
  • Ahlada Engineers Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2022 Roundup
  • V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Negatives – While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder
  • After Falling 50%+ in a Few Months Is Nokian Renkaat (TYRES FH) A “Buy” Or “Sell”?
  • M: Expect Strong Earnings Recovery in 1Q22
  • Astro Malaysia (ASTR.KL) – Ended The Fy On A Slightly More Positive Note

Tabcorp To Split Lotteries and Wagering Businesses

By David Blennerhassett

  • Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) has registered the Demerger Booklet in relation to the proposed demerger of The Lottery Corporation.
  • The demerger general meeting and Scheme Meeting will be held on the 12 May with a potential demerger date on the 1 June. 
  • The independent expert estimates the lottery ops may be worth up to A$11.6bn and wagering A$2.7bn, against Tabcorp’s current market cap of A$11.6bn.

Tabcorp (TAH AU): Spin-Off Upside & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • If approved, Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) will spin-off the Lotteries and Keno business (The Lottery Corporation; TLC) from the Wagering & Media and Gaming Services business (new Tabcorp).
  • Based on peer valuations, we see an upside of 11% from the last price. The Scheme Meeting is on 12 May and the Second Court Hearing on 20 May.
  • TLC should remain in all major indices, while new Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) could be deleted from the S&P/ASX 50 Index and the MSCI Australia Index.

Crown Resorts Scheme Meeting on 29 April, IE Opinion

By Arun George

  • Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers Crown Resorts (CWN AU)‘s A$13.10 offer from Blackstone Group (BX US) to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.  
  • The key condition is approval from shareholders and gaming regulatory authorities. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 29 April. 
  • We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 12 May implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 2.7% and 27.1%, respectively.

Ahlada Engineers Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Located near Hyderabad, Ahlada Engineers (AHLADA IN) manufactures and sells steel doors and windows in India. It also produces school furniture, drinking water systems and allied products across numerous industries.
  • The facilities are spread across 3 manufacturing units in addition to one assembling unit and stock yard, with an area admeasuring 27,153 square yards on the outskirts of Hyderabad.
  • Ahlada however suffers from some balance sheet and financial issues which are highlighted in our report.

(Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2022 Roundup

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of March, five new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in March was ~31%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Negatives – While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

By Clarence Chu

  • V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.
  • V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

After Falling 50%+ in a Few Months Is Nokian Renkaat (TYRES FH) A “Buy” Or “Sell”?

By Robert C Prather Jr

  • Has the Russia/Ukraine Conflict’s Impact On Tire Retail Distribution and Manufacturing Been Priced In?
  • Have The Impact of Higher Raw Materials Costs Already Been Factored Into Margin Expectations?
  • Will Gasoline Prices Negatively Impact Miles Driven and Slow Replacement Cycles?

M: Expect Strong Earnings Recovery in 1Q22

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We reiterate our BUY rating for M with a target price of Bt61.0 based on 25xPE’22E, Asia ex-Japan consumer staple sector.
  • We expect M to report net profit of Bt393m in 1Q22 (+343%YoY, -2%QoQ) driven by a positive same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) in three main brands (MK, Yayoi, and Laem Charoen Seafood) 
  • We forecast earnings to bounce back to Bt2.2bn in 2022 and continue to grow at 14%CAGR(2023-24) supported by 1) solid recovery in SSSG after resuming dine-in services together with restoring 

Astro Malaysia (ASTR.KL) – Ended The Fy On A Slightly More Positive Note

By Maybank Research

  • Maintain BUY call with lower TP of MYR1.36 (-7%)
  • Earnings and dividends in-line with our expectations
  • Adex surged QoQ but home shopping slumped QoQ
  • Cautiously optimistic of its future

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Singapore: Sea Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Over 300 of Shopee India’s Staff in a Fix as It Checks Out

Over 300 of Shopee India’s Staff in a Fix as It Checks Out

By Tech in Asia

  • Shopee India will lay off over 300 staff after it decided to shut down operations in the South Asian country.
  • The news came as a shocker to its employees, who were unaware until Monday that the company was wrapping up its business in India, sources told Tech in Asia.
  • While the ecommerce firm’s India unit had about 300 employees in December 2021, that number has since gone up to 350 workers, an employee told Tech in Asia on condition of anonymity.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: PC Partner, Sea Ltd, CrediBook, SiS Distribution (Thailand) PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.
  • Over 300 of Shopee India’s Staff in a Fix as It Checks Out
  • YC Doubles the Number of SEA Startups in Latest Cohort
  • SIS: Cloud and Cybersecurity Will Be the New Main Focus for Growth

PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Pc Partner posted record results with revenue and profits increasing by 99%% and 1,047% respectively. The final 1.61 HKD dividend was below my 2 HKD estimate but still solid.
  • Cash grew to 3.1 b HKD vs a market cap of 4.37 b HKD, or 70% of market cap. By end of FY22 cash could be 100% of market cap.
  • The outlook is mixed with short-term ASP pressure into 2Q22 but longer-term optimism into 2H22. As always visibility is low but offset by a cheap valuation and large cash buffer.

Over 300 of Shopee India’s Staff in a Fix as It Checks Out

By Tech in Asia

  • Shopee India will lay off over 300 staff after it decided to shut down operations in the South Asian country.
  • The news came as a shocker to its employees, who were unaware until Monday that the company was wrapping up its business in India, sources told Tech in Asia.
  • While the ecommerce firm’s India unit had about 300 employees in December 2021, that number has since gone up to 350 workers, an employee told Tech in Asia on condition of anonymity.

YC Doubles the Number of SEA Startups in Latest Cohort

By Tech in Asia

  • Startup enabler Y Combinator has unveiled the 33 Southeast Asian startups that have been included in its latest winter 2022 cohort.
  • The number is almost doubled from the last batch and amounted to around 8% of the 414 startups that were funded by the accelerator in this cohort.

  • As part of the accelerator program, Y Combinator will invest US$125,000 in seed capital for a 7% stake in each startup.

SIS: Cloud and Cybersecurity Will Be the New Main Focus for Growth

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • Analyst meeting came out with positive tone. Cloud and cybersecurity businesses should grow rapidly over the next few years.Current inventory stock provides 4 to 6 months buffer from Chinese lockdown 
  • We believe that cloud and cybersecurity will drive earnings at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2021-24E, led sales growth at 8.6% CAGR and slightly improved margins. Management maintains strong outlook 
  • We expect 1Q22E earnings at Bt201m(+6%QoQ, +6%YoY)driven QoQ by GPM expansion. We recommend accumulating shares now as earnings in 1H22 should be the lowest of the year due to seasonality.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: PC Partner, FWD Group Holdings, Burning Rock Biotech, Country Garden Holdings Co, Yashili International Holdings, Guanze Intelligent Medical Information Industry Holding, V3 Brands Asia, Shimao Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.
  • FWD Pre-IPO – Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever
  • Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US): Attractive Growth Story Outshined by Surging COVID Cases in China
  • Country Garden – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2022 Roundup
  • Pre-IPO Guanze Intelligent Medical Information Industry – Advantages in Shandong Cannot Hide Worries
  • V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Negatives – While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, First Pacific Co, Indika Energy, Lippo Karawaci

PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Pc Partner posted record results with revenue and profits increasing by 99%% and 1,047% respectively. The final 1.61 HKD dividend was below my 2 HKD estimate but still solid.
  • Cash grew to 3.1 b HKD vs a market cap of 4.37 b HKD, or 70% of market cap. By end of FY22 cash could be 100% of market cap.
  • The outlook is mixed with short-term ASP pressure into 2Q22 but longer-term optimism into 2H22. As always visibility is low but offset by a cheap valuation and large cash buffer.

FWD Pre-IPO – Updates from HK Filings, Trends Remain as Confusing as Ever

By Sumeet Singh

  • FWD, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, now aims to raise over US$1bn in its HK IPO after having tried to list in the US last year.
  • FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the updates from the HK filing.

Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US): Attractive Growth Story Outshined by Surging COVID Cases in China

By Tina Banerjee

  • Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US) shares plunged 35% since I published bearish insight on the company in November. Weak Q3 results, slower recovery, and the U.S.-China conflict remained major overhangs.
  • However, the shares are now trading at two-week high, as the company received approval for its second NGS kit in China and reported slightly better-than-expected Q4 results.
  • Investors should continue to avoid Burning Rock shares for near-term and wait for COVID cases to subside in China and resolution of the U.S.-China conflict.

Country Garden – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Country Garden’s FY 2021 results were stable, given the industry weakness. The cash collection rate remained above 90%, in line with the company’s strategy to ensure fast collection. According to management, Country Garden has CNY 181 bn of cash, of which half is available for use. We believe the company has adequate liquidity, and has access to funding.

Going forward, Country Garden will focus on maintaining stability and a good liquidity buffer. The company will seize opportunities to acquire projects and land deemed to be less risky and offering good profitability. We view positively management’s strategy, given Country Garden’s resilient performance amid the market turmoil.


(Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2022 Roundup

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of March, five new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in March was ~31%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

Pre-IPO Guanze Intelligent Medical Information Industry – Advantages in Shandong Cannot Hide Worries

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Guanze relies heavily on sale of medical imaging film products in Shandong Province, and occupies a leading market position in Shandong based on its accumulation in local networks and resources.
  • However, the market size in Shandong is limited, with growth ceiling.With the trend of new technology and unproven ability to expand nationwide,there’s a risk of being eliminated in long term.
  • In this context, Guanze could face a lot of challenges and uncertainties. Therefore, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.

V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Negatives – While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

By Clarence Chu

  • V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.
  • V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, First Pacific Co, Indika Energy, Lippo Karawaci

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Event-Driven: Toshiba Corp, Toyo Construction, Tabcorp Ltd, Irongate Group, Crown Resorts, Yashili International Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – Effissimo’s Pledge Isn’t One. It Is a Signalling Device.
  • Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Still Funky – A New (Perhaps Serious), but Secretive Large Holder
  • Tabcorp To Split Lotteries and Wagering Businesses
  • Tabcorp (TAH AU): Spin-Off Upside & Index Implications
  • Irongate Enters Into SIA With Charter Hall And PGGM
  • Crown Resorts Scheme Meeting on 29 April, IE Opinion
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2022 Roundup

Toshiba (6502) – Effissimo’s Pledge Isn’t One. It Is a Signalling Device.

By Travis Lundy


Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Still Funky – A New (Perhaps Serious), but Secretive Large Holder

By Travis Lundy

  • After Murakami-san reported yesterday selling most of his shares on 23 March, the stock fell heavily today. From 6.7% above terms to 0.65% above terms. 
  • 6.5 mm shares changed hands today at less than a 1% premium to terms.
  • After the close, a Cayman company, “WK 1 Limited”, announced it had two affiliates owned 5.89% as of 24-March. Still funky. Still fun. Bet it pops now.

Tabcorp To Split Lotteries and Wagering Businesses

By David Blennerhassett

  • Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) has registered the Demerger Booklet in relation to the proposed demerger of The Lottery Corporation.
  • The demerger general meeting and Scheme Meeting will be held on the 12 May with a potential demerger date on the 1 June. 
  • The independent expert estimates the lottery ops may be worth up to A$11.6bn and wagering A$2.7bn, against Tabcorp’s current market cap of A$11.6bn.

Tabcorp (TAH AU): Spin-Off Upside & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • If approved, Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) will spin-off the Lotteries and Keno business (The Lottery Corporation; TLC) from the Wagering & Media and Gaming Services business (new Tabcorp).
  • Based on peer valuations, we see an upside of 11% from the last price. The Scheme Meeting is on 12 May and the Second Court Hearing on 20 May.
  • TLC should remain in all major indices, while new Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) could be deleted from the S&P/ASX 50 Index and the MSCI Australia Index.

Irongate Enters Into SIA With Charter Hall And PGGM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Irongate Group (IAP AU) has entered into Scheme Implementation Agreement with Charter Hall (CHC AU) and Dutch pension fund PGGM.
  • The consideration of A$1.90/cash plus a A$0.0467/security distribution is in line with the non-binding proposal terms announced on the 31 January.
  • A Scheme Booklet is expected to be despatched in May. The transaction is expected to close late July.

Crown Resorts Scheme Meeting on 29 April, IE Opinion

By Arun George

  • Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers Crown Resorts (CWN AU)‘s A$13.10 offer from Blackstone Group (BX US) to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.  
  • The key condition is approval from shareholders and gaming regulatory authorities. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 29 April. 
  • We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 12 May implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 2.7% and 27.1%, respectively.

(Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2022 Roundup

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of March, five new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in March was ~31%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Indonesia: CrediBook, Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • YC Doubles the Number of SEA Startups in Latest Cohort
  • Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) – Back On a Digitally Enhanced Expansion Tack

YC Doubles the Number of SEA Startups in Latest Cohort

By Tech in Asia

  • Startup enabler Y Combinator has unveiled the 33 Southeast Asian startups that have been included in its latest winter 2022 cohort.
  • The number is almost doubled from the last batch and amounted to around 8% of the 414 startups that were funded by the accelerator in this cohort.

  • As part of the accelerator program, Y Combinator will invest US$125,000 in seed capital for a 7% stake in each startup.

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) – Back On a Digitally Enhanced Expansion Tack

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) booked a strong set of FY2021 results driven by both COVID treatments and the start of a recovery in its core base case business.
  • The company is back on an expansion tack in 2022, with increased capex and new hospital openings plus an increasing focus on digital initiatives.
  • Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) remains a core proxy for the growing penetration of healthcare in Indonesia and valuations are attractive versus history.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – Effissimo’s Pledge Isn’t One. It Is a Signalling Device.
  • Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Still Funky – A New (Perhaps Serious), but Secretive Large Holder

Toshiba (6502) – Effissimo’s Pledge Isn’t One. It Is a Signalling Device.

By Travis Lundy


Toyo Construction (1890) Tender Still Funky – A New (Perhaps Serious), but Secretive Large Holder

By Travis Lundy

  • After Murakami-san reported yesterday selling most of his shares on 23 March, the stock fell heavily today. From 6.7% above terms to 0.65% above terms. 
  • 6.5 mm shares changed hands today at less than a 1% premium to terms.
  • After the close, a Cayman company, “WK 1 Limited”, announced it had two affiliates owned 5.89% as of 24-March. Still funky. Still fun. Bet it pops now.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: PC Partner, Burning Rock Biotech, SiS Distribution (Thailand) PCL, Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk, Howard Hughes Corp, Nokian Renkaat Oyj, MK Restaurants Group, Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.
  • Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US): Attractive Growth Story Outshined by Surging COVID Cases in China
  • SIS: Cloud and Cybersecurity Will Be the New Main Focus for Growth
  • Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) – Back On a Digitally Enhanced Expansion Tack
  • HHC: Asset Sales and Buybacks
  • After Falling 50%+ in a Few Months Is Nokian Renkaat (TYRES FH) A “Buy” Or “Sell”?
  • M: Expect Strong Earnings Recovery in 1Q22
  • SCB: More Challenging Ahead from New Regulations

PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Pc Partner posted record results with revenue and profits increasing by 99%% and 1,047% respectively. The final 1.61 HKD dividend was below my 2 HKD estimate but still solid.
  • Cash grew to 3.1 b HKD vs a market cap of 4.37 b HKD, or 70% of market cap. By end of FY22 cash could be 100% of market cap.
  • The outlook is mixed with short-term ASP pressure into 2Q22 but longer-term optimism into 2H22. As always visibility is low but offset by a cheap valuation and large cash buffer.

Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US): Attractive Growth Story Outshined by Surging COVID Cases in China

By Tina Banerjee

  • Burning Rock Biotech (BNR US) shares plunged 35% since I published bearish insight on the company in November. Weak Q3 results, slower recovery, and the U.S.-China conflict remained major overhangs.
  • However, the shares are now trading at two-week high, as the company received approval for its second NGS kit in China and reported slightly better-than-expected Q4 results.
  • Investors should continue to avoid Burning Rock shares for near-term and wait for COVID cases to subside in China and resolution of the U.S.-China conflict.

SIS: Cloud and Cybersecurity Will Be the New Main Focus for Growth

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • Analyst meeting came out with positive tone. Cloud and cybersecurity businesses should grow rapidly over the next few years.Current inventory stock provides 4 to 6 months buffer from Chinese lockdown 
  • We believe that cloud and cybersecurity will drive earnings at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2021-24E, led sales growth at 8.6% CAGR and slightly improved margins. Management maintains strong outlook 
  • We expect 1Q22E earnings at Bt201m(+6%QoQ, +6%YoY)driven QoQ by GPM expansion. We recommend accumulating shares now as earnings in 1H22 should be the lowest of the year due to seasonality.

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) – Back On a Digitally Enhanced Expansion Tack

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) booked a strong set of FY2021 results driven by both COVID treatments and the start of a recovery in its core base case business.
  • The company is back on an expansion tack in 2022, with increased capex and new hospital openings plus an increasing focus on digital initiatives.
  • Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) remains a core proxy for the growing penetration of healthcare in Indonesia and valuations are attractive versus history.

HHC: Asset Sales and Buybacks

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HHC is one week away from hosting its investor day and the Company has already presented value creation initiatives.
  • HHC has a portfolio of non-core assets management has been slowly selling to go along with the funds from operation HHC’s master planned communities (“MPC”) generate.
  • HHC’s stock continues to undervalue the funds from operation the MPCs are generating

After Falling 50%+ in a Few Months Is Nokian Renkaat (TYRES FH) A “Buy” Or “Sell”?

By Robert C Prather Jr

  • Has the Russia/Ukraine Conflict’s Impact On Tire Retail Distribution and Manufacturing Been Priced In?
  • Have The Impact of Higher Raw Materials Costs Already Been Factored Into Margin Expectations?
  • Will Gasoline Prices Negatively Impact Miles Driven and Slow Replacement Cycles?

M: Expect Strong Earnings Recovery in 1Q22

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We reiterate our BUY rating for M with a target price of Bt61.0 based on 25xPE’22E, Asia ex-Japan consumer staple sector.
  • We expect M to report net profit of Bt393m in 1Q22 (+343%YoY, -2%QoQ) driven by a positive same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) in three main brands (MK, Yayoi, and Laem Charoen Seafood) 
  • We forecast earnings to bounce back to Bt2.2bn in 2022 and continue to grow at 14%CAGR(2023-24) supported by 1) solid recovery in SSSG after resuming dine-in services together with restoring 

SCB: More Challenging Ahead from New Regulations

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt149.Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth,resilient asset quality, and compelling valuation. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (ROE 9.5%
  • Net profit will likely rise 2% YoY (+30% QoQ) in 1Q22 given higher net interest income from elevated loans and lower provisions.
  • The S&P Global Rating downgrade will likely have minimal impacts on SCB’s fundamentals.

Related tickers: PC Partner (1263.HK), Burning Rock Biotech (BNR.OQ), SiS Distribution (Thailand) PCL (SIS.BK), Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA.JK), Howard Hughes Corp (HHC.N), Nokian Renkaat Oyj (TYRES.HE), MK Restaurants Group (M.BK), Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB.BK)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Macro: Market Monitor: The War on Stagflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Market Monitor: The War on Stagflation
  • EA: Leader in Labour Market Tightening
  • Major Taiwanese Players in the Electronics Supply Chain: Slowing Demand for Consumer Electronics
  • CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy
  • Political Data Point to Macron Winning French Presidential Election – Question Is by What Margin

Market Monitor: The War on Stagflation

By Warut Promboon

  • We were not convinced that we were heading for a global recession until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • We believe even if the war may end this year, hostility between the West and Russia/China will continue for years, if not decades.
  • With the combination of low interest rates and a lack of investment opportunities, we believe the world is entering stagflation where high inflation exists alongside low growth and high unemployment.

EA: Leader in Labour Market Tightening

By Phil Rush

  • Rapid ongoing declines in unemployment have reached a record pace in the Euro area as the headline fell again to 6.8% in Feb-22. Most member states have kept improving. 
  • Vacancies are high enough to explain the unemployment change. That suggests an inflationary demand-side development, not a disinflationary positive supply shock. 
  • Labour market slack has tightened more in the EA than almost anywhere else. A looser starting point only buys so much time. We still expect an ECB hike in Sep-22.

Major Taiwanese Players in the Electronics Supply Chain: Slowing Demand for Consumer Electronics

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss about the major Taiwanese players in the electronics supply chain that could be impacted by the the slowing demand for consumer electronics, especially in China.
  • When TSMC’s Chairman mentions that the demand for consumer electronics is slowing down, especially in China, this is a time for a pause and really ponder on this.
  • We believe that there is an increasing risk of the average sales growth of the 13 major Taiwanese tech/consumer electronics stocks being lowered further in the coming months.

CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

By Caixin Global

  • Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate
  • Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak
  • Distressed Chinese developer Sunac sweetens proposed bond extension plan

Political Data Point to Macron Winning French Presidential Election – Question Is by What Margin

By Olivier Desbarres

  • Our updated analysis of the forthcoming French presidential election suggests that political data are clearly pointing to centre-right President Macron winning both the first and second rounds. 
  • So while Macron is likely to win second term, opinion polls point to a smaller margin of victory than in 2017 when he beatLe Pen by 2 votes to 1 
  • The positive impact on the Euro and Eurozone equities is likely to be modest and short-lived, certainly compared to 2017.

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