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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 17th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 17th): Tencent, AIA, Cosco Shipping


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 17th): Tencent, AIA, Cosco Shipping

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Anta (2020 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Samsung Electronics: Revamping Executive Compensation to Include Stocks – Benchmarking TSMC and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Electronics: Revamping Executive Compensation to Include Stocks – Benchmarking TSMC


Samsung Electronics: Revamping Executive Compensation to Include Stocks – Benchmarking TSMC

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Electronics announced that it will revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives. Samsung has benchmarked TSMC in terms of paying treasury shares to its employees.
  • Samsung Electronics’ decision to revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives aligns the interests of the shareholders along with the company’s management.
  • Now that Samsung Electronics has incorporated stock based incentive system, it is likely that other Korean companies that could follow suit. 

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Most Read: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Hyundai Motor India , Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Delta Electronics Thailand , Ruijie Networks , Hyundai Motor, Insignia Financial, LG CNS, Shankara Building Products L, Macromill, Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest (1381 HK): Attractive Spread with Steady Progress in Precondition Satisfaction
  • Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near
  • Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
  • Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms
  • LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play
  • Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light


Canvest (1381 HK): Attractive Spread with Steady Progress in Precondition Satisfaction

By Arun George

  • Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) continues to make steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its HK$4.90 privatisation offer for Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)
  • Two of the five preconditions are satisfied, and another will be satisfied by 20 January. The long stop date of 17 July provides ample time to satisfy the remaining two. 
  • Although the peers have materially re-rated, the offer implies a premium compared to peer multiples. Vote risk remains low, aided by selling by a shareholder with a blocking stake. 

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

By Brian Freitas

  • The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
  • The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
  • The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

By David Blennerhassett

  • You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
  • Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
  • IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.

Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
  • Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
  • Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU), trumping Bain’s A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital’s terms.  
  • CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to A$4.60/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive. 
  • And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital’s terms, again; if not a small premium. 

LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • LG CNS reported a successful IPO book building results analysis. The IPO price has been finalized at 61,900 won per share (high end of the IPO price range).
  • The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 114 to 1. At the IPO price of 61,900 won, the expected market cap will be 6 trillion won. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case target price of 76,383 won per share, which represents a 23% upside from the IPO price of 61,900 won.

Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.
  • This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.
  • Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

By Arun George

  • Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
  • The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
  • CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Strategy Weekly | Nintendo’s Switch and Trump’s Return and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Nintendo’s Switch and Trump’s Return
  • Singapore Market Roundup (17-Jan-2025): RHB upgrades real estate sector, CDL and APAC Realty top picks.
  • Temu and Shein Face Challenges as Countries Tighten Rules for Small Package Imports
  • TikTok Refugees Send Xiaohongshu to Top of U.S. App Store Charts
  • #88 India Insight: Maharashtra’s Innovation City, US Eases Restrictions, Delhivery’s Rapid Commerce
  • China Property: 4 Charts – Full Year 2024 In Context
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 17/01/2025


Japan Strategy Weekly | Nintendo’s Switch and Trump’s Return

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei Stock Average declined 738 yen (1.9%) in the second week of January as heavy-weight stocks sell-off
  • Nintendo (7974 JP) ended the trading week marginally higher by 0.7% after a partial unveiling of its new Swich 2 Console. Less earnings cyclicality, but less upside?
  • The BoJ looks set to lift interest rates again next week, unless market turbulence following Trump’s  inauguration, delays the inevitable

Singapore Market Roundup (17-Jan-2025): RHB upgrades real estate sector, CDL and APAC Realty top picks.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • RHB upgrades real estate sector to ‘overweight’, recommending CDL and APAC Realty as top picks for investors.
  • Stock updates include analysis on companies such as SGX, UOB, Marco Polo Marine, Pan-United Corp, Food Empire, PLife REIT, and Wilmar.
  • Investors should consider RHB’s recommendations and monitor the performance of these companies in the real estate sector.

Temu and Shein Face Challenges as Countries Tighten Rules for Small Package Imports

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein are facing new challenges in delivering low-priced products from China to international markets, as countries including the United States enforce stricter regulations on small package imports.

  • On Jan. 11, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) introduced new rules targeting shipments sent to the same recipient via different channels on the same day or declared for import, if their total value exceeds $800.

  • The CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment system will monitor for discrepancies in shipment declarations, such as omissions or alterations designed to evade the value threshold. If irregularities are detected, it may result in delays in customs clearance, detentions or additional fees, according to the CBP.


TikTok Refugees Send Xiaohongshu to Top of U.S. App Store Charts

By Caixin Global

  • The Chinese social media app Xiaohongshu has surged to the top of U.S. app store charts as American TikTok creators, dubbed “TikTok refugees,” migrate to the platform amid a potential U.S. ban, driving new global user engagement and sparking cross-cultural trends.
  • Ryan Martin, a TikTok user, said restricted access to Douyin — TikTok’s Chinese counterpart — and dissatisfaction with Meta Platform’s role in the TikTok ban had prompted his switch to Xiaohongshu.
  • He described the platform as the most similar to TikTok in terms of interface and functionality. Unlike TikTok and Douyin, Xiaohongshu does not isolate domestic and international users, allowing seamless access for overseas users.

#88 India Insight: Maharashtra’s Innovation City, US Eases Restrictions, Delhivery’s Rapid Commerce

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis announces plans to set up an Innovation City, similar to Gujarat’s GIFT City, to boost the state’s leadership in AI and start-ups.
  • U.S. has removed three Indian entities: IGCAR, BARC, and Indian Rare Earths from its restrictive list, advancing energy cooperation, joint research, and strengthening bilateral ties, particularly in nuclear, energy sectors.
  • Delhivery launches Rapid Commerce, a sub-2-hour delivery service in Bengaluru for D2C brands. The service aims to enhance customer satisfaction, with plans for expansion to other major cities across India.

China Property: 4 Charts – Full Year 2024 In Context

By Robert Ciemniak

  • China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
  • In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
  • While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements (‘less negative’), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 17/01/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.00p per share: Initiating Coverage – Corcel is a ~£6 mm market cap AIM-listed E&P company focused on Portuguese-speaking Angola and Brazil.
  • It offers a unique exposure to the prolific Kwanza onshore basin in Angola which reopened to international companies in 2021.
  • Corcel is also building a portfolio of mature onshore producing assets in Brazil.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelters and Gas Stations Bring Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelters and Gas Stations Bring Opportunity
  • BAC – Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ
  • [Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook
  • Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024
  • Pacific Current Group (PAC) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Jan-2025): Trump AI policies
  • TM: Operations Halted; Valuation Stands
  • 2676 JP – Aiming to Transform from “selling Goods” to “selling Services”…
  • 4576 JP – Announced Revisions to FY24/12 Earnings Forecasts
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 17 January (Ahold Delhaize)


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Smelters and Gas Stations Bring Opportunity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) hosted an analyst call to outline prospects for 2025, which revealed a more positive outlook for fuel distribution driven by growth in demand from mining. 
  • The chemical distribution will also benefit from demand from new smelters as well as new chemicals, whilst land sales at JIIPE are set to increase significantly in 2025. 
  • The retail gas station business is picking up momentum and should benefit from the government reducing fuel subsidies. Valuations are attractive with support from a 7% dividend yield.

BAC – Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

By Daniel Tabbush

  • BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
  • The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
  • NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations – both are a good view on US economy

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
  • Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
  • Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.

Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • LPX is recommended to buy at $104 with a 5-year price target of $255
  • The company has developed value-added Oriented Strand Board products and converted mills to produce higher-margin siding
  • LPX is expected to deliver mid/high-teens total shareholder return and has opportunities for reinvestment at high returns, focused on wood-based products for construction.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Pacific Current Group (PAC) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Pacific Current Group expected to receive a large tender offer at a premium of 20%+ in the next 2-4 months
  • Trading at a 20% discount to estimated fair value NAV of A$13.47 per share with minimal NAV volatility risk
  • Successful monetization of ownership stakes in boutique asset managers improving financial profile, poised for growth and value creation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Jan-2025): Trump AI policies

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Trump 2.0 AI policies spark debate and criticism with a focus on nationalism and economic protectionism, dividing opinions.
  • China launches new low-altitude economy department to drive future growth, while Apple establishes Shanghai subsidiary to enhance AI integration in the country.
  • Nvidia CEO confirms growing CoWoS-L production capacity, but Apple faces crisis in China with 25% drop in iPhone shipments despite market dominance. Vietnam semiconductor push hindered by power supply challenges, prompting Asian countries to counter Trump 2.0’s aggressive policies swiftly.

TM: Operations Halted; Valuation Stands

By Atrium Research

  • Trigon announced that its two underground pumps failed at its Kombat Mine, halting operations.
  • All personnel and mining equipment have been removed from the underground mine.
  • The Company stated that despite the issues, Horizon still plans to proceed with its commitment to purchase TM’s interest in Kombat.

2676 JP – Aiming to Transform from “selling Goods” to “selling Services”…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Takachiho Koheki (hereafter, the Company) is a trading company highly specialized in electronics technology that has identified the underlying needs of its customers to introduce the world’s cutting-edge electronics products to Japan ahead of competitors.
  • With engineering employees accounting for over 40% of its workforce, the Company is a highly specialized technical organization with a total of about 25,000 customer accounts, and its solid customer base is one of its assets.
  • In H1 FY2025/3, the Company surpassed initial estimates, reporting consolidated net sales of JPY13,314 mn (+4.6% YoY), operating profit of JPY936 mn (+31.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY811 mn (-23.2% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereinafter, net profit) of JPY594 mn (-17.2% YoY).


4576 JP – Announced Revisions to FY24/12 Earnings Forecasts

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In light of recent performance trends, DWTI has revised its initial earnings forecasts announced on February 9, 2024.
  • In addition, the Company is recording an extraordinary loss in its non-consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending December 2024.
  • Net sales are expected to increase due to strong royalty income from ophthalmic surgical aid “DW-1002” in Europe, the United States, etc.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 17 January (Ahold Delhaize)

By The IDEA!

  • For the first time in decades, Ahold Delhaize’s main Dutch rival Jumbo saw its FY24 sales falling short of the prior year’s level.
  • Besides, its market share decreased for the third consecutive year. According to Jumbo, both are mainly the result of price cuts and the ban on tobacco sales, which has been in force since July.
  • Royal Jumbo Food Group’s FY24 sales came in at EUR 10.72bn, down by about 2.7% when compared to a year earlier. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms
  • EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts
  • Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play
  • Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light
  • Flagging the Hanwha Ocean CB Conversion Risk (20% of Shares Out)


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU), trumping Bain’s A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital’s terms.  
  • CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to A$4.60/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive. 
  • And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital’s terms, again; if not a small premium. 

EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts

By John Ley

  • Samsung Electronics stock has been an underperformer outright and also relative to Kospi200 as an overhang of catalysts has weighed on performance.
  • Implied vols are at the 88th percentile over the last 3 years and are at the top of their range relative to Kospi200.
  • We recommend 4 different ways to position in front of these catalysts and the large stock buy-back that was announced in November. 

Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.
  • This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.
  • Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

By Arun George

  • Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
  • The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
  • CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 

Flagging the Hanwha Ocean CB Conversion Risk (20% of Shares Out)

By Sanghyun Park

  • KEXIM ignoring this premium could be a breach of duty, making Hanwha Ocean a prime short play. With 20% of shares, past cases suggest a 5-10% pullback.
  • This play’s tougher than HMM’s. Without step-ups, timing the conversion is tricky. Early redemption’s unlikely, so the focus is on when KEXIM pulls the trigger on the conversion.
  • No hints from KEXIM on the CB conversion yet, so loading up aggressively could be risky. We’ll likely need to wait for a signal from KEXIM before jumping in.

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Daily Brief ECM: LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Schloss Bangalore Pre-IPO – Diversified Luxury Portfolio but Comes with High Debt
  • Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Phase 2 Biopharma Targeting Kidney Disease Files for IPO.


LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • LG CNS reported a successful IPO book building results analysis. The IPO price has been finalized at 61,900 won per share (high end of the IPO price range).
  • The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 114 to 1. At the IPO price of 61,900 won, the expected market cap will be 6 trillion won. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case target price of 76,383 won per share, which represents a 23% upside from the IPO price of 61,900 won.

Schloss Bangalore Pre-IPO – Diversified Luxury Portfolio but Comes with High Debt

By Akshat Shah

  • Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Phase 2 Biopharma Targeting Kidney Disease Files for IPO.

By IPO Boutique

  • Currently advancing two wholly owned lead programs, MZE829 and MZE782, each of which represents a novel precision medicine-based approach for chronic kidney disease
  • Lead candidate initiated a Phase 2 trial of MZE829 in November 2024 and expect to dose their first patient in the first quarter of 2025
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) in the next week for a late January / early February debut.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In the US, the December CPI edged higher to 2.9% y-o-y (2.9% e / 2.7% p) and 0.4% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.3% p), the fastest monthly pace since March 2024.
  • That said, core CPI (excluding food and energy) eased marginally to 3.2% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.3% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
  • Core CPI eased on a m-o-m basis for the first time in six months, after standing at 0.3% for four consecutive months.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).
  • Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.
  • The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). 

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Daily Brief United States: Maze Therapeutics, Bank Of America, Shell PLC, Crude Oil, Louisiana Pacific, Ainos , PetroTal, Charter Communications and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Phase 2 Biopharma Targeting Kidney Disease Files for IPO.
  • BAC – Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ
  • [Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook
  • [ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts
  • Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024
  • Ainos, Inc: Previewing the Year Ahead with Focus on AI Nose Programs
  • PTAL: High FY25 Production Driven by High Uptime During the Dry Season and Investment
  • Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024


Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Phase 2 Biopharma Targeting Kidney Disease Files for IPO.

By IPO Boutique

  • Currently advancing two wholly owned lead programs, MZE829 and MZE782, each of which represents a novel precision medicine-based approach for chronic kidney disease
  • Lead candidate initiated a Phase 2 trial of MZE829 in November 2024 and expect to dose their first patient in the first quarter of 2025
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) in the next week for a late January / early February debut.

BAC – Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

By Daniel Tabbush

  • BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
  • The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
  • NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations – both are a good view on US economy

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
  • Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
  • Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.

Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • LPX is recommended to buy at $104 with a 5-year price target of $255
  • The company has developed value-added Oriented Strand Board products and converted mills to produce higher-margin siding
  • LPX is expected to deliver mid/high-teens total shareholder return and has opportunities for reinvestment at high returns, focused on wood-based products for construction.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ainos, Inc: Previewing the Year Ahead with Focus on AI Nose Programs

By Water Tower Research

  • Looking ahead in 2025, we expect greater visibility in Ainos’ AI Nose programs, including robotics, smart manufacturing, elderly care monitoring, and Ainos Flora for women’s health testing.
  • Veldona clinical trials in Sjogren’s syndrome and HIV-related oral warts remain on track, with Taiwan study completions expected in 2026.
  • Sets eye on robotics. Ainos aims to expand its AI Nose application to robotics. It is seeking collaboration with the robotics and humanoid developers, as it believes now is the time to equip robotics with the ability to smell, filling a key gap in robot sensory capabilities.

PTAL: High FY25 Production Driven by High Uptime During the Dry Season and Investment

By Auctus Advisors

  • PetroTal expects to produce 21-23 mbbl/d in 2025, with the midpoint of this guidance exceeding our expectations of 21.2 mbbl/d.
  • Although only four new wells are expected to come online in 2025 (including the 23H well but excluding the final well of the FY25 four-well drilling program), average production is expected to grow by ~4.2 mbbl/d from 2024 to 2025.
  • In comparison, six new producers were brought online in 2024 (excluding the 23H well but including the 16H well), but production increased by only ~3.4 mbbl/d from 2023 to 2024.

Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) – Thursday, Oct 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Author has a long position in CHTR and may buy or sell securities without notice
  • Importance of conducting independent research before making investment decisions
  • Views CHTR as a opportunity despite competition from FWA, with significant risk-reward potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Macro: Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0
  • [ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts
  • Inflation Peak From Festive Germany
  • CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis
  • HEW: Respite From Hawkish Pressures
  • RRII And ATMA Make Rubber Inroads In Northeast


Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0

By Priyanka Kishore

  • We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
  • Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
  • Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.

Inflation Peak From Festive Germany

By Phil Rush

  • The final Euro area inflation print for December confirmed the headline rise to 2.4%, albeit with energy contributing a bit more, offset by even less from food prices.
  • Germany drove the rise amid much higher package holiday prices this year. Its median increase also remained too high, almost matching the UK’s above 3% annualised.
  • December still looks set to be the peak. Falls in the following two months may not be enough to regain the target as services inflation persists at uncomfortable heights.

CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis

By Caixin Global

  • Robotaxis / In Depth: China clears more obstacles for robotaxis
  • Xiaohongshu /: TikTok refugees send Xiaohongshu to top of U.S. app store charts
  • Smartphones /Chart of the Day: Huawei’s smartphone comeback in China

HEW: Respite From Hawkish Pressures

By Phil Rush

  • Data releases skewed slightly softer this week, with UK inflation and GDP disappointing on statistical effects. US CPI news was marginal, yet the failure to exceed expectations drove dovish moves. Korea and Indonesia surprised by holding and cutting, respectively.
  • Next week’s policy focus is the BOJ, where expectations for a hike were raised by recent guidance. The flash PMIs and UK labour market data are our highlights on the economic data calendar.
  • Note: Smartkarma became our research portal in January, so clients should set their login details to maintain smooth access (send queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

RRII And ATMA Make Rubber Inroads In Northeast

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • RRII’s new clone RRII 417 to give yield of 2080 kg/ha a year
  • INROAD project covers 1,25,272 hectares in four years in NE
  • Northeast share of national production to go up to 32% 

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