Smartkarma Daily Briefs

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) being included in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 8.2m shares (US$295m; 3x ADV; 10.8x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) has outperformed Premier Energies (PREMIERE IN) over the last 3 months but still trades at a lower forward PE.

Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

By Umang Agrawal

China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
Rio Tinto’s strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.

[WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface

WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.

Something Is Brewing…

By The Commodity Report

The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive

Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise

Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns

For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding

By Rahul Jain

Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Multiple offers received by Galp for Mopane

By Auctus Advisors

Galp has received multiple non-binding offers from reputable parties for a stake in PEL 83, home to the Mopane discovery.
The company is actively engaging with several counterparties, aiming to announce a farm-in partner by YE25.
These counterparties bring strong operatorship credentials and have prioritized Namibia within their corporate strategies.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi XDC Cayman , Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Physiomics, Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion
Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points
Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc
MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Growth Flash Amid Favorable Momentum with Approvals and Overseas Sales

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)‘s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.
There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at changes to the company’s refiled application proof.
We also did a comparison between the company’s product and PegBio’s PB-119. PegBio was listed on HKEx in May. We also check its products’ online listing.

Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc

By Hybridan

After a sequence of contracts building from the core business, the YE Trading Update reports revenue higher than expectations, with a consequential reduction in losses and higher cash balances.
Assuming the momentum is maintained, it extends the cash runway to 12 months.
Revenue expectations for June 2025 are increased to £834k which is 46% ahead of FY June 24, while the Loss After Tax is 31% lower at £419k, than the comparable period.

MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Growth Flash Amid Favorable Momentum with Approvals and Overseas Sales

By Tina Banerjee

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252 HK) announced flash results for 1H25 where they expect the revenue to rise 70–80% YoY and net loss to narrow down to RMB 125M.
Toumai Laparoscopic Surgical Robot continued to be the main growth driver securing new orders of 18 units and achieving commercial installation of more than 13 units in overseas markets.
MedBot’s recent approvals of Toumai variants, technology advantages, and commercialization strength places it at an inflection point, expected to be back in the black soon.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , Kawasaki Heavy Industries, LIG Nex1 Co, Hyundai Hyms , Brambles Ltd, Transurban Group, Northern Bear and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity
Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside
LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next
M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?
Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?
Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!
Hybridan Research: Northern Bear Plc (NTBR): Building Specialist Business

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

By Rahul Jain

Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.

LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next

LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS)‘s stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS) has outperformed most of its peers over the last few months and now trades expensive on a range of metrics.
While momentum could take the stock higher, there is a risk of pullback as positioning in the stock is unwound.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

By Douglas Kim

The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers.
Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?

Brambles Limited’s performance for the first half of 2025 presents a mixed picture, combining robust growth with specific challenges.
The company demonstrated a 4% increase in sales, equally contributed by price realization and volume growth, along with a notable 10% uplift in underlying profit.
This growth is largely credited to the U.S. pallets business, reflecting successful net new business wins.

Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!

The latest financial results for Transurban display a mix of positive operational advances and some challenges that merit attention.
The company reported a promising 6.2% increase in proportional toll revenue.
Over the same period, cost-cutting measures contributed to a 3% decline in expenses, which translated into a 9.4% rise in operating EBITDA and a 220 basis point enhancement in the EBITDA margin.

Hybridan Research: Northern Bear Plc (NTBR): Building Specialist Business

By Hybridan

Strong finals to March 2025 are reported with a 13.7% increase in Revenue to £78.1m and a 42% increase in PBT of £3.1m compared to £2.1m.
The jump in EPS from 9.5p to 16.8p was aided by the tender offer and cancellation of 5m shares.
The dividend is increased to 2.5p from 2p and reflecting the strong performance, a special dividend of 1p will be paid to shareholders on the register on 29 August 2025.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief Consumer: Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd, Woolworths Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, REA Group Ltd, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market
Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns
Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!
Proxy Voting at AGMs Is Good Opportunity for Investors to Think if Managers Fulfill Fiduciary Duties
REA Group: Initiation of Coverage- Yield Gains
BBW: Snapping the Store; Going to the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $65 PT

Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

On July 20, 2025, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt (SONACOMS IN) announced a $20 million joint venture with China’s JNT to enter the world’s largest EV market.
The move aims to capture growth in China’s dominant EV market, aligning with the company’s new strategy to expand into eastern markets
An EV slowdown is expected in FY26 while the China JV and railway business, despite driving future growth from FY27 onwards, are expected to lower margins.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) saw lowest degrowth in retail sales value(RSV) in Q1FY26 among last few quarters.
Same-Store sales growth showed a clear sequential improvement across key regions. Mainland China self-operated stores saw the decline narrow sharply.
Driven by store optimization and brand transformation, earnings quality should sustain. At 16.9x P/E valuation on FY26e EPS, we believe investors will increasingly view CTF as a long-term structural winner.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns

By Akshat Shah

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) is looking to raise about US$317m in its upcoming India IPO.
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (PHVL) is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!

Woolworths Group’s half-year financial performance for FY 2025 exhibits a mix of achievements and challenges, emphasizing the competitive and dynamic retail landscape.
The company’s diverse portfolio, including Australian Food, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and other segments, reflected varied growth patterns influenced by external and internal factors.
Starting with the positives, Woolworths Group achieved a 3.7% increase in group sales, reaching $35.9 billion, with eCommerce sales showcasing robust growth of 20%.

Proxy Voting at AGMs Is Good Opportunity for Investors to Think if Managers Fulfill Fiduciary Duties

By Aki Matsumoto

Although corporate governance in Japan has gradually improved over the past decade, many listed companies have failed to achieve their management goal of sustainable growth in corporate value.
TSE seems to believe that the underlying problem is that management does not recognize “capital costs” and is therefore unable to concentrate resources on businesses that can secure sufficient margins.
I believe that the problem stems from a lack of awareness that free cash flow belongs to shareholders and that companies have a fiduciary duty to shareholders.

REA Group: Initiation of Coverage- Yield Gains

By Small Cap Consumer Research

REA Group Limited has reported strong growth in its third quarter of the fiscal year, underscored by significant yield increases across its operations.
The company posted a 12% rise in revenue to $374 million, alongside a 12% boost in EBITDA, excluding associates, reaching $199 million.
These results reflect favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives implemented by the company.

BBW: Snapping the Store; Going to the Next Level; Reiterate Buy, $65 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $65 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
Even though we are in the dog days of Summer, Build-A-Bear has seen no slowdown in innovation, launching their first round of licensed Mini Beans (Hello Kitty and Friends), leveraging the recent Superman movie release, beginning to roll out new fixtures for Mini Beans, expanding their relationship with cheer-leading leader Varsity Sports and launching new Giant licensed characters (Bluey).
With Halloween on track for release next month, we believe there has been no slowdown in momentum for the company, and we remain confident in Build-A-Bear’s potential to drive further top and bottom line upside; as such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $65 price target for BBW.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index, Uco Bank, Road King Infrastructure, Sidekick Token, Veritas Finance Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review
UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading
Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked

NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

By Nico Rosti

As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index ‘s September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.
The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it’s oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won’t last more than 2 weeks probably.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Road King Infrastructure, Continuum Green, Softbank Group
UST yields declined for a second straight day yesterday. There were no major macro catalysts, albeit the move was in line with gains across most European government bonds.
The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 1 bp to 3.86%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.38%. Equities climbed to fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.1% to 6,306 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% at 20,974.

Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading

By Animoca Brands Research

Sidekick is a Web3-native livestreaming platform that blends TikTok-style content flow, Huya-style monetization, and on-chain execution into a single experience. Within livestreams, users can tip, and participate in airdrops directly, effectively transforming content creators into real-time asset distributors.
As crypto attention markets grow increasingly saturated, promotional methods like shill tweets and leaderboard campaigns are showing diminishing impact. Livestreaming presents a more trusted, higher-conversion format that aligns with how both meme tokens and VC backed projects now build visibility and credibility.
The platform has gained strong early traction in Asia, onboarding over 1000 livestream focused KOLs. Sidekick now aims to broaden its content verticals and encourage deeper community engagement.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked

By Nicholas Tan

Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise up to US$323m in its upcoming Indian IPO.
It was established in 2015, and is a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), classified as an ‘NBFC-Middle Layer’.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief Australia: Woolworths Ltd, Wisetech Global, REA Group Ltd, Brambles Ltd, Transurban Group, Fletcher Building, Warriedar Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!
WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?
REA Group: Initiation of Coverage- Yield Gains
Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?
Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!
Fletcher Building Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Impacts Felt
Warriedar Resources Ltd – Further Exploration Update

Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!

Woolworths Group’s half-year financial performance for FY 2025 exhibits a mix of achievements and challenges, emphasizing the competitive and dynamic retail landscape.
The company’s diverse portfolio, including Australian Food, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and other segments, reflected varied growth patterns influenced by external and internal factors.
Starting with the positives, Woolworths Group achieved a 3.7% increase in group sales, reaching $35.9 billion, with eCommerce sales showcasing robust growth of 20%.

WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?

WiseTech Global Limited, a developer of cloud-based software solutions for the international and domestic logistics industries, recently released its first half of 2025 financial results.
The company reported revenue of $381 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an organic revenue growth rate of 15%.
CargoWise, their flagship logistics platform, exhibited strong performance with organic revenue growth of 20% and recurring revenue contributing 99% of total CargoWise revenue.

REA Group: Initiation of Coverage- Yield Gains

REA Group Limited has reported strong growth in its third quarter of the fiscal year, underscored by significant yield increases across its operations.
The company posted a 12% rise in revenue to $374 million, alongside a 12% boost in EBITDA, excluding associates, reaching $199 million.
These results reflect favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives implemented by the company.

Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?

Brambles Limited’s performance for the first half of 2025 presents a mixed picture, combining robust growth with specific challenges.
The company demonstrated a 4% increase in sales, equally contributed by price realization and volume growth, along with a notable 10% uplift in underlying profit.
This growth is largely credited to the U.S. pallets business, reflecting successful net new business wins.

Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

The latest financial results for Transurban display a mix of positive operational advances and some challenges that merit attention.
The company reported a promising 6.2% increase in proportional toll revenue.
Over the same period, cost-cutting measures contributed to a 3% decline in expenses, which translated into a 9.4% rise in operating EBITDA and a 220 basis point enhancement in the EBITDA margin.

Fletcher Building Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Impacts Felt

By FNArena

A global perspective on what happened overnight

Warriedar Resources Ltd – Further Exploration Update

Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold-producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , Makus Inc, LIG Nex1 Co, Hyundai Hyms and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity
Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price
LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next
M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price

By Douglas Kim

Makus Inc (093520 KS) is a textbook case study in Korea of how improving shareholder value leads to surging share price. Its example is simple and beautiful.
Makus announced that it will cancel a total of 6 million treasury shares (37% of outstanding shares) in the next three years until 2027 to increase shareholder value.
Applying a 15x P/E on EPS of 2,788 won (2027E) results in implied target price of 41,820 won per share, which would be a 67% further upside from current levels.

LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS)‘s stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS) has outperformed most of its peers over the last few months and now trades expensive on a range of metrics.
While momentum could take the stock higher, there is a risk of pullback as positioning in the stock is unwound.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

By Douglas Kim

The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers.
Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief Japan: Kawasaki Heavy Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Shift Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside
Proxy Voting at AGMs Is Good Opportunity for Investors to Think if Managers Fulfill Fiduciary Duties
Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

By Rahul Jain

Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.

Proxy Voting at AGMs Is Good Opportunity for Investors to Think if Managers Fulfill Fiduciary Duties

By Aki Matsumoto

Although corporate governance in Japan has gradually improved over the past decade, many listed companies have failed to achieve their management goal of sustainable growth in corporate value.
TSE seems to believe that the underlying problem is that management does not recognize “capital costs” and is therefore unable to concentrate resources on businesses that can secure sufficient margins.
I believe that the problem stems from a lack of awareness that free cash flow belongs to shareholders and that companies have a fiduciary duty to shareholders.

Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.
The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.

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Jul 23

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Waaree Energies, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt, Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd, Uco Bank, Veritas Finance Ltd, Pine Labs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review
Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns
UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential
Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked
Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained

NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

By Nico Rosti

As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index ‘s September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.
The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it’s oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won’t last more than 2 weeks probably.

Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) being included in a global index in August.
Estimated passive buying is 8.2m shares (US$295m; 3x ADV; 10.8x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) has outperformed Premier Energies (PREMIERE IN) over the last 3 months but still trades at a lower forward PE.

Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

On July 20, 2025, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt (SONACOMS IN) announced a $20 million joint venture with China’s JNT to enter the world’s largest EV market.
The move aims to capture growth in China’s dominant EV market, aligning with the company’s new strategy to expand into eastern markets
An EV slowdown is expected in FY26 while the China JV and railway business, despite driving future growth from FY27 onwards, are expected to lower margins.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns

By Akshat Shah

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) is looking to raise about US$317m in its upcoming India IPO.
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (PHVL) is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked

By Nicholas Tan

Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise up to US$323m in its upcoming Indian IPO.
It was established in 2015, and is a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), classified as an ‘NBFC-Middle Layer’.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained

By Sumeet Singh

Pine Labs is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
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Jul 23

Daily Brief China: WuXi XDC Cayman , Maxio Technology Hangzhou, Iron Ore, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Road King Infrastructure, Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion
STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September
[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive
Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery
Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Growth Flash Amid Favorable Momentum with Approvals and Overseas Sales

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)‘s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.
There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September