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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Notches Record Amid Mixed Tech Earnings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Notches Record Amid Mixed Tech Earnings
  • Monday Delight: 21/07/25
  • [Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls
  • Japan Morning Connection: Trump Announces 15% Tariffs on Japan but Details Remain Scarce
  • What Happens to China Healthcare? – The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam
  • WTR Healthcare Spotlight Recap – July 21, 2025
  • WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap – July 21, 2025


Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Notches Record Amid Mixed Tech Earnings

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq fell 0.4%, its first decline in seven sessions, dragged down by chipmakers after reports of delays in SoftBank and OpenAI’s $500 billion AI initiative
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a likely extension of the China deal deadline, while Trump announced a tariff agreement with the Philippines
  • Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet approval rating fell to a record-low 23% following the Liberal Democratic Party’s significant losses in the House of Councillors election

Monday Delight: 21/07/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
  • If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

By Raghav Vashisht

  • SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.
  • ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.
  • $136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Announces 15% Tariffs on Japan but Details Remain Scarce

By Andrew Jackson

  • Stargate delays hitting semi-caps, while Texas Instruments cautious tone hitting power-semi’s after hours.
  • Medical tech solution names IQVIA and Medpace surge may aid M3.
  • DR Hortons’s numbers beat sparking enormous short squeeze for Home Builders – Sumitomo Forestry to follow.

What Happens to China Healthcare? – The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China biotech has become the biggest valuation driver for the entire healthcare sector based on strong expectations on licensing cooperations. Other subsectors may still underperform due to lack of logic.
  • The primary market still lacks confidence in long-term outlook. Some founders/shareholders have already reduced holdings and cash out. Valuation bubble may burst when turning point occurs.We analyzed the possible scenarios.
  • At this stage, stock picking logic may need to focus on three directions. The next stage of the rise may come more from A-share market. We shared our top picks.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).
  • Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. 

WTR Healthcare Spotlight Recap – July 21, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Introducing Dr. David Mazzo and Dr. Kristen Buck.
  • Both of our guests carry impressive résumés. Dr. Mazzo, a PhD-trained chemist, is a 40-year veteran of the pharmaceutical industry, of which a significant portion has been spent in R&D executive roles in big and emerging pharma companies that develop products across all therapeutic areas and development stages.
  • Dr. Mazzo joined Lisata as its CEO in 2015. Dr. Buck, a physician by training, spent several years as an FDA medical officer before filling various senior and leadership roles in clinical R&D in the pharma industry across multiple therapeutic indications. She joined Lisata in her current role in 2021.

WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap – July 21, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Unusual Machines’ CEO Allan Evans highlighted a significant market shift in the drone industry, driven by geopolitical restrictions on Chinese manufacturers, creating a “market vacuum” for non-Chinese, Made-in-the-USA drone components.
  • Unusual Machines aims to be a crucial Tier 1 supplier for backpack-sized, specialty, and FPV drones by leveraging a consumer channel to achieve competitive pricing and quality for US-made parts.
  • Evans anticipates rapid growth and consolidation in the US drone market, fueled by upcoming defense budgets and existing legislation, with the primary challenge being the ability to match the price performance expectations set by Chinese companies.

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Daily Brief ECM: Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points
  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns
  • McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
  • Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained
  • Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked


Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO Update: New Data Points

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
  • In this note, we look at changes to the company’s refiled application proof.
  • We also did a comparison between the company’s product and PegBio’s PB-119. PegBio was listed on HKEx in May. We also check its products’ online listing.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Pre-IPO-Marriott-Heavy Portfolio with Other Operating Revenue Concerns

By Akshat Shah

  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) is looking to raise about US$317m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (PHVL) is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

  • McGraw Hill (MH US) , a leading name in educational publishing, is offering 24.39 mn shares to raise up to USD537 mn targeting an equity valuation of USD4.2 billion.
  • McGraw Hill is a global provider of educational content and digital learning solutions, serving the K-12, higher education, and professional learning markets. Digital segment accounted for 65% of its revenues.
  • McGraw Hill’s transition from print to predominantly digital positions the company to benefit from several structural shifts in the education sector.

Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pine Labs is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO: Fast Growing Lender to the Un/Under-Banked

By Nicholas Tan

  • Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise up to US$323m in its upcoming Indian IPO.
  • It was established in 2015, and is a non-deposit taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), classified as an ‘NBFC-Middle Layer’.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity
  • Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price
  • M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?


HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
  • Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
  • Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • Makus Inc (093520 KS) is a textbook case study in Korea of how improving shareholder value leads to surging share price. Its example is simple and beautiful.
  • Makus announced that it will cancel a total of 6 million treasury shares (37% of outstanding shares) in the next three years  until 2027 to increase shareholder value. 
  • Applying a 15x P/E on EPS of 2,788 won (2027E) results in implied target price of 41,820 won per share, which would be a 67% further upside from current levels.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

By Douglas Kim

  • The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers. 
  • Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
  • Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Road King Infrastructure, Continuum Green, Softbank Group
  • UST yields declined for a second straight day yesterday. There were no major macro catalysts, albeit the move was in line with gains across most European government bonds.
  • The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 1 bp to 3.86%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.38%. Equities climbed to fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.1% to 6,306 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% at 20,974.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading


Sidekick: Building the LiveFi Infrastructure for Real-Time Trading

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Sidekick is a Web3-native livestreaming platform that blends TikTok-style content flow, Huya-style monetization, and on-chain execution into a single experience. Within livestreams, users can tip, and participate in airdrops directly, effectively transforming content creators into real-time asset distributors.
  • As crypto attention markets grow increasingly saturated, promotional methods like shill tweets and leaderboard campaigns are showing diminishing impact. Livestreaming presents a more trusted, higher-conversion format that aligns with how both meme tokens and VC backed projects now build visibility and credibility.
  • The platform has gained strong early traction in Asia, onboarding over 1000 livestream focused KOLs. Sidekick now aims to broaden its content verticals and encourage deeper community engagement. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman ‘Jokes’ About Buying 100x More GPUs
  • Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market
  • Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery
  • UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential
  • Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!
  • NXP 2Q25: Slowly Getting Out of the Hole
  • WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?
  • [Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
  • [Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise


Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
  • Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
  • Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman ‘Jokes’ About Buying 100x More GPUs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Most Advanced Node — 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think
  • OpenAI’s Sam Altman ‘Jokes’ About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day…
  • AI PC Delay — Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026

Sona Comstar’s China JV: Tapping into the World’s Largest EV Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • On July 20, 2025, Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt (SONACOMS IN) announced a $20 million joint venture with China’s JNT to enter the world’s largest EV market.
  • The move aims to capture growth in China’s dominant EV market, aligning with the company’s new strategy to expand into eastern markets
  • An EV slowdown is expected in FY26 while the China JV and railway business, despite driving future growth from FY27 onwards, are expected to lower margins.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) saw lowest degrowth in retail sales value(RSV) in Q1FY26 among last few quarters.
  • Same-Store sales growth showed a clear sequential improvement across key regions. Mainland China self-operated stores saw the decline narrow sharply.
  • Driven by store optimization and brand transformation, earnings quality should sustain. At 16.9x P/E valuation on FY26e EPS, we believe investors will increasingly view CTF as a long-term structural winner.

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. IOB (IOB IN): Catch-Up Potential

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests short-term outperformance of UCO Bank (UCO IN), also supported by more attractive valuations.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Woolworths Group Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Inside the Bold Push to Reinvent Grocery with W Living and Private Labels!

By Baptista Research

  • Woolworths Group’s half-year financial performance for FY 2025 exhibits a mix of achievements and challenges, emphasizing the competitive and dynamic retail landscape.
  • The company’s diverse portfolio, including Australian Food, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and other segments, reflected varied growth patterns influenced by external and internal factors.
  • Starting with the positives, Woolworths Group achieved a 3.7% increase in group sales, reaching $35.9 billion, with eCommerce sales showcasing robust growth of 20%.

NXP 2Q25: Slowly Getting Out of the Hole

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Bold statement by Management: early stage of cyclical recovery, new upcycle beginning. 2Q result and 3Q guidance show a smaller pace of YoY decline, converging slowly to 0. 
  • Other than an increasing order book, Management not forthcoming on details. In Automotive NXP has outperformed its peers during this latest downcycle with a smaller pace of decline.
  • Stock valuations at 20x 2025 EPS, 16.8x 2026 EPS, which are almost +1 standard deviation above average PEx. No room for error here.

WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?

By Baptista Research

  • WiseTech Global Limited, a developer of cloud-based software solutions for the international and domestic logistics industries, recently released its first half of 2025 financial results.
  • The company reported revenue of $381 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an organic revenue growth rate of 15%.
  • CargoWise, their flagship logistics platform, exhibited strong performance with organic revenue growth of 20% and recurring revenue contributing 99% of total CargoWise revenue.

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
  • Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
  • Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise

By Suhas Reddy

  • Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
  • Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
  • Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

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Daily Brief Macro: UK Fiscal Slippage Rules and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Fiscal Slippage Rules
  • Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive
  • [WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
  • Something Is Brewing…
  • [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
  • Trump & The US – Overweight Equities
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 July
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 July


UK Fiscal Slippage Rules

By Phil Rush

  • The UK’s de facto fiscal rule is slippage, with a £50bn to £100bn increase in borrowing between initial official forecasts and outcomes. 2025-26 made another slippery start.
  • Politicians spend any space in the OBR forecasts, skewing surprises to higher spending. Yet tax hikes keep failing to raise the hoped revenue, motivating further increases.
  • Investors should not be fooled by forecasts for consolidation when the failed strategy driving the fiscal slippage rule survives. Issuance may stay near £300bn in 2029-30.

Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
  • Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
  • Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

By Umang Agrawal

  • China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
  • Rio Tinto’s strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
  • Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.

[WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
  • The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
  • WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.

Something Is Brewing…

By The Commodity Report

  • The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
  • These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
  • The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
  • For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

Trump & The US – Overweight Equities

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Overweight US equities.  Government debt issuance is rising, investors switching from bonds to equities and foreign US bond investor appetite waning.
  • Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill is classic demand side fiscal stimulus, benefiting consumers.
  • The 12–18-month outlook for domestic demand and corporate earnings growth has improved – reinforcing what business cycle indicators were already signalling.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils price-premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays in narrow range, increasingly lags year-earlier levels.
  • Base oils margins hold at levels that sustain incentive to maintain steady output.
  • Base oils prices hold at levels that facilitate removal of surplus supplies in overseas markets.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 21 July

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices face more pressure versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially for light grades, and especially in Asia.
  • Heavy-grade price-premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices also faces more pressure in Asia than in other markets.
  • Dynamic increases prospect of any adjustments in output taking place in Asia ahead of other markets.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 July

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand likely to wane amid seasonal slowdown in consumption during summer holidays.
  • Steady outright prices and expectations of healthy availability of supply add to attraction of holding back.
  • Build-up of additional stocks to cover against weather-related supply disruptions likely to have mostly been completed.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Makus Inc, Maxio Technology Hangzhou, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Nxp Semiconductors Nv, Wisetech Global, McGraw Hill, Shift Inc, Pine Labs and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price
  • STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman ‘Jokes’ About Buying 100x More GPUs
  • NXP 2Q25: Slowly Getting Out of the Hole
  • WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?
  • McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
  • Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery
  • Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained


Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • Makus Inc (093520 KS) is a textbook case study in Korea of how improving shareholder value leads to surging share price. Its example is simple and beautiful.
  • Makus announced that it will cancel a total of 6 million treasury shares (37% of outstanding shares) in the next three years  until 2027 to increase shareholder value. 
  • Applying a 15x P/E on EPS of 2,788 won (2027E) results in implied target price of 41,820 won per share, which would be a 67% further upside from current levels.

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes for September

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 2 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the September rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 1.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 983m (US$137m). Passives need to trade between 0.4-1.9x ADV in the potential changes.
  • Both forecast inclusions are newly eligible for index inclusion and the passive buying could provide some support following the drop in the stock price post listing.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman ‘Jokes’ About Buying 100x More GPUs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Most Advanced Node — 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think
  • OpenAI’s Sam Altman ‘Jokes’ About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day…
  • AI PC Delay — Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026

NXP 2Q25: Slowly Getting Out of the Hole

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Bold statement by Management: early stage of cyclical recovery, new upcycle beginning. 2Q result and 3Q guidance show a smaller pace of YoY decline, converging slowly to 0. 
  • Other than an increasing order book, Management not forthcoming on details. In Automotive NXP has outperformed its peers during this latest downcycle with a smaller pace of decline.
  • Stock valuations at 20x 2025 EPS, 16.8x 2026 EPS, which are almost +1 standard deviation above average PEx. No room for error here.

WiseTech Global: Initiation of Coverage: Can The Ramp-Up of New Products & Innovations Up Their Game?

By Baptista Research

  • WiseTech Global Limited, a developer of cloud-based software solutions for the international and domestic logistics industries, recently released its first half of 2025 financial results.
  • The company reported revenue of $381 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with an organic revenue growth rate of 15%.
  • CargoWise, their flagship logistics platform, exhibited strong performance with organic revenue growth of 20% and recurring revenue contributing 99% of total CargoWise revenue.

McGraw Hill IPO: Legacy Publisher to an EdTech Play. Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

  • McGraw Hill (MH US) , a leading name in educational publishing, is offering 24.39 mn shares to raise up to USD537 mn targeting an equity valuation of USD4.2 billion.
  • McGraw Hill is a global provider of educational content and digital learning solutions, serving the K-12, higher education, and professional learning markets. Digital segment accounted for 65% of its revenues.
  • McGraw Hill’s transition from print to predominantly digital positions the company to benefit from several structural shifts in the education sector.

Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
  • The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.
  • The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.

Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Negatives – …some Segments Slowing, Lots Unexplained

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pine Labs is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , Kawasaki Heavy Industries, LIG Nex1 Co, Hyundai Hyms , Brambles Ltd, Transurban Group, Northern Bear and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity
  • Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside
  • LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next
  • M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?
  • Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?
  • Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!
  • Hybridan Research: Northern Bear Plc (NTBR): Building Specialist Business


HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
  • Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
  • Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Recovery Done, Eyes on Hydrogen, Aerospace, and Margin Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Past Performance: KHI has rebounded from FY21 losses to record-high revenues and profits in FY25, driven by aerospace recovery and energy systems strength.
  • Future Growth: Orderbook visibility of ~¥3 trillion supports 5–6% annual growth, led by hydrogen, commercial engines, and automation.
  • Valuations: At 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 14x PE (NTM), KHI trades at a discount to peers like MHI and Komatsu, reflecting lower ROE and execution risk on long-cycle capex bets.

LIG Nex1 (079550 KS): Stock Soars; Momentum Stalls; Global Index Inclusion Next

By Brian Freitas

  • LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS)‘s stock price has doubled over the last 3 months, and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
  • LIG Nex1 Co (079550 KS) has outperformed most of its peers over the last few months and now trades expensive on a range of metrics.
  • While momentum could take the stock higher, there is a risk of pullback as positioning in the stock is unwound.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

By Douglas Kim

  • The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers. 
  • Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
  • Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

Brambles Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Latest Investments in Technology & Data Analytics Help Disrupt the $10 Trillion Logistics Industry?

By Baptista Research

  • Brambles Limited’s performance for the first half of 2025 presents a mixed picture, combining robust growth with specific challenges.
  • The company demonstrated a 4% increase in sales, equally contributed by price realization and volume growth, along with a notable 10% uplift in underlying profit.
  • This growth is largely credited to the U.S. pallets business, reflecting successful net new business wins.

Transurban Group: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Traffic & Smart Debt Moves Signal Improved Profitability Ahead!

By Baptista Research

  • The latest financial results for Transurban display a mix of positive operational advances and some challenges that merit attention.
  • The company reported a promising 6.2% increase in proportional toll revenue.
  • Over the same period, cost-cutting measures contributed to a 3% decline in expenses, which translated into a 9.4% rise in operating EBITDA and a 220 basis point enhancement in the EBITDA margin.

Hybridan Research: Northern Bear Plc (NTBR): Building Specialist Business

By Hybridan

  • Strong finals to March 2025 are reported with a 13.7% increase in Revenue to £78.1m and a 42% increase in PBT of £3.1m compared to £2.1m.
  • The jump in EPS from 9.5p to 16.8p was aided by the tender offer and cancellation of 5m shares.
  • The dividend is increased to 2.5p from 2p and reflecting the strong performance, a special dividend of 1p will be paid to shareholders on the register on 29 August 2025.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Waaree Energies, Silver, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Gold, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil, Natural Gas, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc , Sintana Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
  • Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive
  • [WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
  • Something Is Brewing…
  • [Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
  • [Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise
  • [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding
  • Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Multiple offers received by Galp for Mopane


Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
  • Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
  • Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

By Umang Agrawal

  • China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
  • Rio Tinto’s strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
  • Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.

[WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
  • The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
  • WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.

Something Is Brewing…

By The Commodity Report

  • The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
  • These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
  • The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
  • Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
  • Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise

By Suhas Reddy

  • Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
  • Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
  • Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
  • For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding

By Rahul Jain

  • Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
  • Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
  • Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Multiple offers received by Galp for Mopane

By Auctus Advisors

  • Galp has received multiple non-binding offers from reputable parties for a stake in PEL 83, home to the Mopane discovery.
  • The company is actively engaging with several counterparties, aiming to announce a farm-in partner by YE25.
  • These counterparties bring strong operatorship credentials and have prioritized Namibia within their corporate strategies.

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