Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne.
While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

By Sumeet Singh

Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

The Spartan Resources (SPR AU) IE considers Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.
The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares).
This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

On the 17th March, Spartan (SPR AU) agreed to merge with Ramelius (RMS AU). The cash/scrip merger combined operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
The implied price of A$1.78/share was a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP. The deal arrived after Spartan was outbid for Karora (KRR CN), and Spartan rebuffed Westgold (WGX AU)‘s approach.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected implementation on or before the 31st July. The IE (BDO) says “fair & reasonable“.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Sri Lanka Rubber Product Exports Skid Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs

Sri Lanka Rubber Product Exports Skid Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs

By Vinod Nedumudy

First quarter tire and tube exports fall by around 24% YoY
SLAMERP asks Govt to talk tariff disparity with US
CEAT’s share in OE tire market tops 90%

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart International Group L, Toyota Motor, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management, Mao Geping Cosmetics, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech, Vera Bradley, Sligro Food Group Nv, Busy Ming Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid
Success Experiences Will Be Necessary for IR to Function
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO – Fast-Growing Noodle Chain Navigates Competition
Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.
Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet
VRA: 1Q Preview: Rebuilding Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating, $4 PT
What’s News in Amsterdam – 4 June (ABN Amro | PostNL | Sligro Food Group | Dutch politics)
Busy Ming Pre-IPO: Scaled up but Fragmented Market

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid

By Nico Rosti

Travis Lundy and Arun George have recently written extensively about Toyota Industries (6201 JP) proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is involved: 2 weeks ago we predicted a rally, and the rally did happen and went past our suggested profit target – time for an update.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) at the end of last week was overbought, according to our model. Any catalyst could trigger a sell off from here but let’s analyze the models….

Success Experiences Will Be Necessary for IR to Function

By Aki Matsumoto

While TSE will require companies to have IR staff, but most companies disclose that they have IR staff, there is gap with investors who believe that IR is not functioning.
The issue is the substance issue, as most companies have disclosed that they have already conducted the information meetings included in the implementation of specific IR activities expected by TSE.
The reason why many companies still do not make IR function may be because they do not realize the effect of IR in terms of higher stock valuations.

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO – Fast-Growing Noodle Chain Navigates Competition

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
GXNCM has shown strong growth momentum by expanding its network of corporate-owned restaurants and improving overall profitability, benefiting from post-COVID recovery and economies of scale, with operational performance turning positive.
However, its reliance on price cuts to stay competitive, coupled with weakening same-store sales and a highly fragmented market, raises concerns about long-term sustainability.

Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Co., Ltd. (SFC) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citic, and Huatai.
SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands with a focus on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market In 2024, its flagship brand, Forest Cabin.
As of FY24, Forest Cabin had 188 SKUs with its core products at a recommended retail price range of RMB 200-800, targeting primarily consumers aged 25-40.

VRA: 1Q Preview: Rebuilding Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating, $4 PT

We are reiterating our Buy, rating, $4 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company announcing 1QFY26 (April) results before the open on Wednesday.
We believe Vera Bradley has continued to take steps to return to prominence, from returning key styles and features, adding more licensed items at both the main line and outlet stores and continuing to shift their looks to appeal to a younger customer base.
Further, while the company remains impacted by the lag between loss of older customers and a shift to a younger group, management has been aggressive in reducing cash spend, which in the near term, unfortunately, has resulted in further main line store closures.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 4 June (ABN Amro | PostNL | Sligro Food Group | Dutch politics)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • ABN Amro | launches a new digital bank aimed at younger part Gen-Z segment • PostNL | not clear what Dutch cabinet crisis means for Postal Act revision • Sligro Food Group | acquisition of GEPU extends its delivery proposition • Dutch politics | Wilders pulled the plug on Dutch coalition government

Busy Ming Pre-IPO: Scaled up but Fragmented Market

By Nicholas Tan

Busy Ming Group (BMG HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China. Stores are typically located in high-traffic, high visibility, and easily accessible street-side locations.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) Q1 FY25: Solid Despite The Coal Price Drop

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) Q1 FY25: Solid Despite The Coal Price Drop

By Sameer Taneja

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported a solid Q1 FY25 despite the drop in coal prices. Revenues/profits were -1%/+8%YoY because of higher volumes and lower costs.
After accounting for the 150 million USD dividend liability (which was already paid out in May), net cash is>850 million USD (around 54% of market capitalization).
With earnings likely to be between 250-300 million USD in FY25, the stock trades at 5.3- 6.25x FY25 PE and 12.5% dividend yield.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief China: Pop Mart International Group L, Henderson Land Development, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Bank of Jiangsu , Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management, CMOC Group , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Mao Geping Cosmetics, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
Kelun-Biotech Placement – Recent Run-Up Makes Its Tricky
China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO – Fast-Growing Noodle Chain Navigates Competition
CMOC Group Limited (HKEX: 3993) – High-Growth, Low-Cost Producer Positioned for Re-Rating
Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity
Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.
Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

Kelun-Biotech Placement – Recent Run-Up Makes Its Tricky

By Akshat Shah

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m from a primary placement. The offering is priced at HK$ 330.2-341, a 5-8% discount to last close.
The company plans to use the proceeds for research and development, clinical trials of its core products and as working capital.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

The iShares A50 China (2823 HK) and CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 June.
Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) will replace Great Wall Motor (601633 CH) in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks.
This change is a surprise to us and there could be a short-term move in the stocks.

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO – Fast-Growing Noodle Chain Navigates Competition

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
GXNCM has shown strong growth momentum by expanding its network of corporate-owned restaurants and improving overall profitability, benefiting from post-COVID recovery and economies of scale, with operational performance turning positive.
However, its reliance on price cuts to stay competitive, coupled with weakening same-store sales and a highly fragmented market, raises concerns about long-term sustainability.

CMOC Group Limited (HKEX: 3993) – High-Growth, Low-Cost Producer Positioned for Re-Rating

By Rahul Jain

EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.
$4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.
Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) received conditional marketing approval for its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug, Trastuzumab Rezetecan for Injection (SHR-A1811).
In 1Q25, Jiangsu Hengrui reported revenue growth of 20% YoY to RMB 7.2B. Innovative drugs and Licensing should help keep this momentum in near future.
The near-term trigger for the stock would be a further marketing approval from the US FDA.

Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Special Situation Investments

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Co., Ltd. (SFC) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citic, and Huatai.
SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands with a focus on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market In 2024, its flagship brand, Forest Cabin.
As of FY24, Forest Cabin had 188 SKUs with its core products at a recommended retail price range of RMB 200-800, targeting primarily consumers aged 25-40.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief India: Nava, Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Kilburn Engineering, Time Technoplast, Venus Pipes & Tubes and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion
Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up
Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook
Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion

By Rahul Jain

NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
SPRL reported Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) reported strong consolidated Q4FY25 financials, driven by fluoropolymers, with significant PAT growth and reduced net debt.
This indicates sustained momentum in core fluoropolymers, potential for significant revenue contribution from the new EV business in the coming years, and an improved balance sheet supporting future investments.
Capex of INR 1,600 crs in FY26 funded via external accruals will expand EV and fluoropolymer capacities, enabling long-term growth across energy, mobility, and specialty segments.

Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) achieved highest-ever standalone/consolidated revenue and EBITDA, completed two strategic acquisitions (ME Energy, Monga Strayfield), and secured record orders, particularly entering the Nuclear sector.
The performance validates the company’s strategy of diversification and inorganic growth, providing strong visibility for future revenue with 50% growth target for FY26 .
The strong execution, robust order book, and confident management guidance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting significant growth potential building on recent strategic moves.

Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Strong FY25 financial performance driven by volume growth outpacing revenue, significant PAT increase, and improved margins, particularly from higher-growth value-added and composite product segments.
The strategic focus on higher-margin value-added products, especially composites, is enhancing profitability (margins, ROCE) and positioning the company for future growth in key sectors like clean energy and sustainability.
The consistent execution on strategic targets (ROCE, debt reduction, composite growth) strengthens conviction in the management’s ability to deliver and capitalize on emerging opportunities, despite some project timeline shifts.

Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

By Nitin Mangal

Venus Pipes is a growing stainless-steel pipes and tubes manufacturer and exporter in India having over nine years of experience in manufacturing of stainless-steel tubular products.
With respect to forensics, we highlight several takeaways including steep increase in inventory days funded by creditors, expensive capex compared to peers, etc.
Weak governance practices are identified with respect to warrant issuance and non-disclosure of information on several fronts.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HS TECH Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, Ntes, Meituan, Jd, Smic, Horizonrobot
KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Hanwha Systems, Samsungf&Mins, Daewoo Shipbuilding

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (May): Xiaomi, Ntes, Meituan, Jd, Smic, Horizonrobot

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index’s EPS, stocks’ EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Xiaomi, Ntes – S, Meituan, Jd – Sw, Smic, Horizonrobot, Hua Hong Semi.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 30th): Hanwha Systems, Samsungf&Mins, Daewoo Shipbuilding

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 30th. The aggregated short interest was USD6.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hanwha Systems, Samsungf&Mins, Daewoo Shipbuilding, Meritz Financi, Samsung Heavy Industries, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Ecopro Mat.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief United States: Caris Life Sciences, Intel Corp, Cantor Equity Partners I, Jefferson Capital, Vera Bradley and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Peeking at the Prospectus of an AI TechBio IPO
Intel @ BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference
Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties
Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Insolvency Account Manager
VRA: 1Q Preview: Rebuilding Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating, $4 PT

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Peeking at the Prospectus of an AI TechBio IPO

By IPO Boutique

Sixth Street Partners is a significant investor in Caris Life Sciences and has been involved in multiple funding rounds since 2018.
The company has more than 100 biopharma partners, such as Moderna, AbbVie, Xencor, and Merck KGaA.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, they generated total revenue of $120.9 million and $80.7 million, respectively. The company also has significant net losses.

Intel @ BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference

By William Keating

Intel Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus reveals that the company is now also including Samsung as a second foundry option
The practice of Intel offering OEM incentives appears to be coming to the end of its unnatural life as LBT sets the tone. Great news for AMD I would think.
Further investment in A14 capacity will now be contingent on having customers committing to taking up that capacity. No more build it and they will come a la Mr. Gelsinger.

Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties

CEPO and CEPT SPACs, run by Howard Lutnick, trade above trust value with potential multibagger upside in crypto-related deals.
Cantor Fitzgerald, led by Lutnick’s son, has deepened its crypto involvement, including a 5% stake in Tether.
Cantor’s SPACs feature no warrants, a sponsor note boosting trust value, and no specified target sectors.

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Insolvency Account Manager

By IPO Boutique

They are a leading analytically driven purchaser and manager of charged-off and insolvency consumer accounts with four geographic regions with the majority of their operations landing in the USA.
The principal purposes of this offering are to increase their capitalization and flexibility, facilitate an orderly distribution for the selling stockholders, and create a public market for their common stock.
We anticipate this offering to likely find participation from sector dedicated investors and not draw the attention of “traditional” IPO players.

VRA: 1Q Preview: Rebuilding Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating, $4 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

We are reiterating our Buy, rating, $4 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company announcing 1QFY26 (April) results before the open on Wednesday.
We believe Vera Bradley has continued to take steps to return to prominence, from returning key styles and features, adding more licensed items at both the main line and outlet stores and continuing to shift their looks to appeal to a younger customer base.
Further, while the company remains impacted by the lag between loss of older customers and a shift to a younger group, management has been aggressive in reducing cash spend, which in the near term, unfortunately, has resulted in further main line store closures.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Motor, Japan Post Bank, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, AViC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid
Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity
Success Experiences Will Be Necessary for IR to Function
AVIC (9554 JP) – System in Place for Rapid In-House Launch of Live Commerce Business

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid

By Nico Rosti

Travis Lundy and Arun George have recently written extensively about Toyota Industries (6201 JP) proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is involved: 2 weeks ago we predicted a rally, and the rally did happen and went past our suggested profit target – time for an update.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) at the end of last week was overbought, according to our model. Any catalyst could trigger a sell off from here but let’s analyze the models….

Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

By Rikki Malik

Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers stake below 50%

Success Experiences Will Be Necessary for IR to Function

By Aki Matsumoto

While TSE will require companies to have IR staff, but most companies disclose that they have IR staff, there is gap with investors who believe that IR is not functioning.
The issue is the substance issue, as most companies have disclosed that they have already conducted the information meetings included in the implementation of specific IR activities expected by TSE.
The reason why many companies still do not make IR function may be because they do not realize the effect of IR in terms of higher stock valuations.

AVIC (9554 JP) – System in Place for Rapid In-House Launch of Live Commerce Business

By Sessa Investment Research

Over the past six months, AViC’s share price has undergone a major re-rate.
Its closing price on May 16, 2025, the day after Q2 FY2025/9 results announcement, stood at JPY 1,825, up 67.6% from the closing price of JPY 1,089 on November 14, 2024, when it announced FY2024/9 results.
Based on the projected EPS of JPY 73.59 for FY2025/9, the Company’s share looks to be trading at a premium with a forward P/E ratio of 24.8x.

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Jun 05

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Mediatek Inc, BYD, Solar Industries India, Pop Mart International Group L, Mayne Pharma, Henderson Land Development and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card
Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
US vs EU: Mutually Assured Destruction?
Lee Jae-Myung Becomes the New South Korean President – Four Investment Themes That Could Outperform

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful.
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t.
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation.
The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 22 Changes as Expected

There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.
The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne.
While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover