Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) (688279 CH), a BLDC motor IC design company, aims to raise around US$250m in its H-share listing.
Fortior Tech is an IC design company dedicated to the design and R&D of BLDC motor control ICs.
In this note, we look at the past performance and likely A/H premium.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief United States: Intercontinental Exchange, Crude Oil, Bank Of America, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, Fastly Inc, Boston Beer Company Inc A, BigCommerce Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

InterContinental Exchange (ICE): Its $14 Billion Mortgage Opportunity Can Power Platform Expansion!
Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs
Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
Fastly Ignites 64% Growth in Emerging Products as Edge Compute Takes Center Stage…
The Boston Beer Company: Can Hard Seltzer & Its Brand Repositioning Help It Sustain In The Competitive Landscape?
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
BigCommerce: Will Its Industry-Specific Solutions and B2B Focus Pay Off?
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

InterContinental Exchange (ICE): Its $14 Billion Mortgage Opportunity Can Power Platform Expansion!

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. reported a record-breaking performance for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating significant growth across its diverse business segments even amidst fluctuating macroeconomic conditions.
The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, marking a 16% increase year-over-year.
Net revenue rose by 8%, reaching a new high of $2.5 billion.

Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)

By The Commodity Report

During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
So far, this turned out to be the right call.
Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A – AKA: Remain Bullish After Management Meetings; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for A.K.A. Brands after meeting with management in their San Francisco headquarters.
We believe the company has continued to make material progress on multiple fronts, from adding new Princess Polly stores (and upgrading the current fleet), increasing the wholesale presence for both Petal & Pup and Princess Polly, leveraging the “test and repeat” model to return Culture Kings to higher margins and top line growth, and shifting the Australian market to top line expansion.
When combined with the potential for debt refinancing and continued strong online results (helped by new store expansion), we believe there remains top and bottom line upside, and we are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.

Fastly Ignites 64% Growth in Emerging Products as Edge Compute Takes Center Stage…

Fastly Inc.’s earnings report for the first quarter of 2025 highlighted several key aspects of the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors to consider.
Positively, Fastly reported revenues of $144.5 million, surpassing their guidance range.
This represents an 8% increase year-over-year, suggesting positive momentum in their revenue growth, notably higher compared to the previous quarter’s 2% growth.

The Boston Beer Company: Can Hard Seltzer & Its Brand Repositioning Help It Sustain In The Competitive Landscape?

The Boston Beer Company’s latest earnings report for Q1 2025 demonstrates both positive progress and ongoing challenges in a dynamic market environment.
The company reported a solid start to the year with a 5.3% increase in shipments and a 6.5% rise in revenue, driving its highest first quarter gross margin since 2019 thanks to volume growth and margin enhancement initiatives.
However, depletions decreased by 1%, indicating that consumption trends remain under pressure amidst broader category headwinds.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.
Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.
Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.
Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.
Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.

BigCommerce: Will Its Industry-Specific Solutions and B2B Focus Pay Off?

BigCommerce Holdings Inc. (BIGC) recently conducted its first quarter 2025 earnings call, during which key financial and operational metrics were discussed, shaping a comprehensive outlook for investors.
The quarter demonstrated mixed results with a focus on profitability and business transformation, reflecting a balanced mix of challenges and opportunities.
The company reported a non-GAAP operating income of $7.6 million, marking a 530 basis point margin improvement year-over-year.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

US Group II base oils price-premium to VGO rebounds after fall in crude oil prices.
Excluding brief dip in June 2025, base oils margins hold in narrow range since early April 2025.
US Group II domestic and export base oils price-premium to VGO rises in Q2 2025 from Q1 2025.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief ESG: Now Is Time to Increase the Number of Female Directors so that They Can Contribute to Value Creation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Now Is Time to Increase the Number of Female Directors so that They Can Contribute to Value Creation

Now Is Time to Increase the Number of Female Directors so that They Can Contribute to Value Creation

By Aki Matsumoto

Since % of women among internal directors is low, many companies try to increase external directors, which leads to an issue of directors serving on the boards of multiple companies.
Investors expect gender diversity to have long-term impact on business performance. However, due to the low percentage of female board members, no clear correlation with value creation has been demonstrated.
In evaluations of board effectiveness, it’s clear that few companies share issues within boards and engage in sufficient discussion. There appears to be a lack of sufficient discussion on issues.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Japan: Nissin Corp, MS&AD Insurance, Okamura Corp, Oug Holdings, Softbank Group (ADR), Takashimaya, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important
OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) – A 0.5x P/TBV Vertically Integrated Seafood Wholesaler in Osaka…
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Takashimaya (8233 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
Now Is Time to Increase the Number of Female Directors so that They Can Contribute to Value Creation

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow.

Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important

By Michael Allen

Okamura trades at a PBR of 1.0 and a PER of 8.6 despite earning more than 12% return on equity.
Okamura’s new AI-driven warehouse automation system is a potential game-changer as it reduces costs and improves decision making for mid-sized enterprises.
Management’s incentives are still poorly aligned with the interests of shareholders, and their performance is well below potential.

OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) – A 0.5x P/TBV Vertically Integrated Seafood Wholesaler in Osaka…

By Altay Capital

OUG Holdings (TYO 8041) is a vertically integrated seafood group that auctions fresh fish at major markets, runs a nationwide cold-chain for trading, processing, and delivering seafood to stores and restaurants, and farms premium buri and bluefin tuna.
Because it controls aquaculture, logistics hubs, and its own truck fleet, it moves product from port to plate faster and fresher than rivals that outsource storage and transport.
They currently have dominant market share in Osaka and are slowly expanding to Tokyo.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, New World Development
US Treasury yields fell yesterday. The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 3 bps to 3.72%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 5 bps at 4.23%. Equities climbed to new record highs.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,205, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.5% to 20,370. Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in June declined 23% y-o-y but were up 15% m-o-m at CNY 339 bn, according to CRIC.

Takashimaya (8233 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update

By Shared Research

Total operating revenue decreased by 5.7% YoY, with operating profit and recurring profit declining by 26.9% and 35.5% respectively.
Domestic department store sales fell due to reduced inbound demand, impacting operating revenue and profit despite solid domestic sales.
Takashimaya revised FY02/26 forecasts downward for revenue and profit metrics, but raised net income projections due to asset sale.

Now Is Time to Increase the Number of Female Directors so that They Can Contribute to Value Creation

By Aki Matsumoto

Since % of women among internal directors is low, many companies try to increase external directors, which leads to an issue of directors serving on the boards of multiple companies.
Investors expect gender diversity to have long-term impact on business performance. However, due to the low percentage of female board members, no clear correlation with value creation has been demonstrated.
In evaluations of board effectiveness, it’s clear that few companies share issues within boards and engage in sufficient discussion. There appears to be a lack of sufficient discussion on issues.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief India: HDB Financial Services Ltd, Kalpataru Limited, NIFTY Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis
Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand
NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) raised around US$1.4bn in its India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance and pricing in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) raised about US$184m in its India IPO.
Kalpataru (KL) is an integrated real estate developer involved in identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of its projects.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rally may stop briefly, for 1 or 2 weeks. At the moment the index hast started a very mild pullback, after closing higher for 2 consecutive weeks.
Usually the rally does not last more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered although there has been occasions where it lasted 7 weeks.
Two scenarios lie ahead: (1) if this week closes higher, expect a near-term pullback; or (2) if it closes lower—possibly continuing into next week—the rally may resume afterward.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, Ampol, Rio Tinto PLC, Resources & Energy, Boise Cascade Co, Civitas Resources , Base Oil and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report
Resources & Energy Group Limited – Small Scale Gold Production
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
Boise Cascade Edge: How Two-Step Distribution Model Could Dominate the Housing Market!
Civitas Resources: How Are They Optimizing Delaware Basin Operations?
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)

By The Commodity Report

During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
So far, this turned out to be the right call.
Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May);
Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

Resources & Energy Group Limited – Small Scale Gold Production

Resources & Energy Group Limited (ASX:REZ) is a Western Australian (WA) focused gold explorer and producer whose now sole focus is on the East Menzies Gold Project.
This project hosts a JORC-compliant resource of ~54koz with REZ currently conducting a trial mining and processing operation which is likely to generate revenue to the company over H1 ‘25.
This trial will be used to ramp-up production through an expanded bulk mining operation and ultimately a proper small-scale mining operation that removes the need for toll treating.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.
Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.
Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.
Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.
Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.
Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.
Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.

Boise Cascade Edge: How Two-Step Distribution Model Could Dominate the Housing Market!

Boise Cascade’s recent financial disclosures portray a mixed performance amid prevailing industry and economic challenges.
The company’s consolidated first-quarter sales reached $1.5 billion, marking a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.
Net income also witnessed a notable drop to $40.3 million or $1.06 per share, down from $104.1 million or $2.61 per share in the same quarter of 2024.

Civitas Resources: How Are They Optimizing Delaware Basin Operations?

Civitas Resources recently reported its first quarter 2025 results, reflecting a blend of strategic initiatives and challenges tied to the volatile economic environment.
The company, led by CEO Chris Doyle, has taken deliberate steps to adjust its capital expenditures, focusing on maintaining financial flexibility amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainties.
These adjustments include reducing capital expenditures by approximately $150 million compared to 2024, thus emphasizing a strategy of capital discipline and controlled reinvestment rates without sustaining 2024 production levels.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.
Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.
Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Industrials: Nissin Corp, Hyundai Construction Equipment, Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology, Okamura Corp, HD Hyundai Infracore, Samsung SDI, Daehan Shipbuilding, PostNL NV, Knorr-Bremse AG, MillerKnoll and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios
Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important
Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment
Samsung SDI (006400): Still a No
Daehan Shipbuilding Pre-IPO: PE Cashing Cheques on the Shipping Boom
PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
Knorr-Bremse AG: How the Company Unlocks Infrastructure Windfalls & Strategic Supremacy!
MillerKnoll, Inc: 4Q25 Adj. EPS of $0.60 Beats WTR Estimate

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.

HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook

By Sanghyun Park

This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.

Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Midea Group (300 HK) has received shareholder approval to spin off its technology-driven supply chain arm,Annto Logistics,for a separate listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Annto has demonstrated consistent profitability, with cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB 883.42 million for 2022-2024.
Size to not exceed 20% of the enlarged share capital. The objective is to expand Annto’s financing avenues, accelerate growth, & bolster operational independence within the Midea ecosystem.

Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important

By Michael Allen

Okamura trades at a PBR of 1.0 and a PER of 8.6 despite earning more than 12% return on equity.
Okamura’s new AI-driven warehouse automation system is a potential game-changer as it reduces costs and improves decision making for mid-sized enterprises.
Management’s incentives are still poorly aligned with the interests of shareholders, and their performance is well below potential.

Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment

By Douglas Kim

After the market close on 1 July, HD Hyundai Infracore announced that it will be merging with HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The merger ratio is 0.1621707 common shares of HD Hyundai Construction Equipment for each common share of HD Hyundai Infracore.
We have Negative ratings on both HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.

Samsung SDI (006400): Still a No

By Henry Soediarko

The EU ended the direct purchase subsidies for EVs; that is a negative for Samsung SDI (006400 KS).
Management is quite bullish, but the last two quarters result were quite informative on the level of margin and contribution from the battery business.
It trades around 112x PER while historically around 25-35x PER and its competitor Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) is only trading at 20x.

Daehan Shipbuilding Pre-IPO: PE Cashing Cheques on the Shipping Boom

By Nicholas Tan

Daehan Shipbuilding (439260 KS) is looking to raise up to US$350m in its upcoming Korean IPO.
It specializes in the design and construction of medium-sized (Aframax) and semi-large sized (Suezmax) vessels for crude oil and petroleum product transportation.
In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • ABN Amro | completes the acquisition of Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe • ING | cutting 230 senior roles globally within its Wholesale Banking • InPost | EVRi intends to deploy 10,000 APMs by 2030 • PostNL | proposed changes in postal legislation do not go down well at PostNL • Dutch retail sales | up 2.2% YoY in May; sales volume down 2.2% • Dutch inflation | continued to trend down in June

Knorr-Bremse AG: How the Company Unlocks Infrastructure Windfalls & Strategic Supremacy!

Knorr-Bremse AG, a leading manufacturer in the rail and truck sectors, has presented a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025.
The company’s resilience was emphasized by CEO Marc Llistosella, pointing to strategic measures and a decentralized operational model that has enabled Knorr-Bremse to manage ongoing global trade challenges effectively.
The company has positioned itself well in terms of geographic revenue distribution, which mitigates tariff risks and enhances flexibility in volatile markets.

MillerKnoll, Inc: 4Q25 Adj. EPS of $0.60 Beats WTR Estimate

By Water Tower Research

Strong sales growth in 4QFY25, especially in North American Contract, driven in part by demand pull forward.
MLKN delivered adjusted EPS of $0.60, significantly better than our estimate.
North American Contract saw organic sales growth of 12.6%, which led to a 195-bp improvement in operating margins on better sales leverage.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances

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Jul 02

Daily Brief ECM: HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis
Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Valuation Insights
Lens Technology H-Share Listing: Thoughts on Valuation
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) – The Dull Post-IPO Share Price and the Outlook
Daehan Shipbuilding Pre-IPO: PE Cashing Cheques on the Shipping Boom
Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand
Fortior Tech A/H Listing – Fast but Volatile Growth and Margins

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) raised around US$1.4bn in its India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance and pricing in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount of 24.8% to 28.1% (based on the 27 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.

Lens Technology H-Share Listing: Thoughts on Valuation

Chinese iPhone glass supplier Lens Technology (6613 HK) has announced the terms for its H-share listing, and plans to raise around US$600m through issuing 262.3m shares.
The company’s listing is priced at HK$17.38-18.18 per share, at a 25-28% discount to the last close price of the A-shares as of 27th June.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s H-share offering is priced reasonably compared to domestic and international peers.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) – The Dull Post-IPO Share Price and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Recent positive sentiment towards A/H listings fails to drive Haitian’s post-IPO stock price performance, as the market still has doubts about whether Haitian can effectively break through the growth bottleneck.
The core contradiction of Haitian lies in the mismatch between high valuation and slow growth. Haitian’s fundamentals are difficult to support high valuation – 20-30x P/E is a reasonable range.
The intensification of geopolitical tensions has brought considerable uncertainty to the market, which has reduced investors’ risk appetite and made them more willing to avoid investment targets with potential risks.

Daehan Shipbuilding Pre-IPO: PE Cashing Cheques on the Shipping Boom

By Nicholas Tan

Daehan Shipbuilding (439260 KS) is looking to raise up to US$350m in its upcoming Korean IPO.
It specializes in the design and construction of medium-sized (Aframax) and semi-large sized (Suezmax) vessels for crude oil and petroleum product transportation.
In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) raised about US$184m in its India IPO.
Kalpataru (KL) is an integrated real estate developer involved in identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of its projects.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Fortior Tech A/H Listing – Fast but Volatile Growth and Margins

Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) (688279 CH), a BLDC motor IC design company, aims to raise around US$250m in its H-share listing.
Fortior Tech is an IC design company dedicated to the design and R&D of BLDC motor control ICs.
In this note, we look at the past performance and likely A/H premium.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief Industrials: Nissin Corp, Hyundai Construction Equipment, Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology, Okamura Corp, HD Hyundai Infracore, Samsung SDI, Daehan Shipbuilding, PostNL NV, Knorr-Bremse AG, MillerKnoll and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios
Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important
Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment
Samsung SDI (006400): Still a No
Daehan Shipbuilding Pre-IPO: PE Cashing Cheques on the Shipping Boom
PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
Knorr-Bremse AG: How the Company Unlocks Infrastructure Windfalls & Strategic Supremacy!
MillerKnoll, Inc: 4Q25 Adj. EPS of $0.60 Beats WTR Estimate

[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility

On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.

HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook

By Sanghyun Park

This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.

Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Midea Group (300 HK) has received shareholder approval to spin off its technology-driven supply chain arm,Annto Logistics,for a separate listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Annto has demonstrated consistent profitability, with cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB 883.42 million for 2022-2024.
Size to not exceed 20% of the enlarged share capital. The objective is to expand Annto’s financing avenues, accelerate growth, & bolster operational independence within the Midea ecosystem.

Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important

By Michael Allen

Okamura trades at a PBR of 1.0 and a PER of 8.6 despite earning more than 12% return on equity.
Okamura’s new AI-driven warehouse automation system is a potential game-changer as it reduces costs and improves decision making for mid-sized enterprises.
Management’s incentives are still poorly aligned with the interests of shareholders, and their performance is well below potential.

Merger Between HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment

By Douglas Kim

After the market close on 1 July, HD Hyundai Infracore announced that it will be merging with HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The merger ratio is 0.1621707 common shares of HD Hyundai Construction Equipment for each common share of HD Hyundai Infracore.
We have Negative ratings on both HD Hyundai Infracore and HD Hyundai Construction Equipment.

Samsung SDI (006400): Still a No

By Henry Soediarko

The EU ended the direct purchase subsidies for EVs; that is a negative for Samsung SDI (006400 KS).
Management is quite bullish, but the last two quarters result were quite informative on the level of margin and contribution from the battery business.
It trades around 112x PER while historically around 25-35x PER and its competitor Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) is only trading at 20x.

Daehan Shipbuilding Pre-IPO: PE Cashing Cheques on the Shipping Boom

By Nicholas Tan

Daehan Shipbuilding (439260 KS) is looking to raise up to US$350m in its upcoming Korean IPO.
It specializes in the design and construction of medium-sized (Aframax) and semi-large sized (Suezmax) vessels for crude oil and petroleum product transportation.
In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

PostNL NV – What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • ABN Amro | completes the acquisition of Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe • ING | cutting 230 senior roles globally within its Wholesale Banking • InPost | EVRi intends to deploy 10,000 APMs by 2030 • PostNL | proposed changes in postal legislation do not go down well at PostNL • Dutch retail sales | up 2.2% YoY in May; sales volume down 2.2% • Dutch inflation | continued to trend down in June

Knorr-Bremse AG: How the Company Unlocks Infrastructure Windfalls & Strategic Supremacy!