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Daily Brief Industrials: Intloop , Carr’s Group PLC, AST SpaceMobile Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Growth Acceleration
  • Carr’s Group – At an inflexion point
  • Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) – Sunday, Sep 15, 2024


INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Growth Acceleration

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Exhibiting a robust growth profile – Solid topline growth and a marked improvement in profitability YoY were the key highlights of Q1 FY7/24 results, demonstrating that INTLOOP’s growth strategy encompassing M&A and business investment is beginning to yield positive outcomes.
  • Sales growth of 63.3% YoY was driven primarily by the acquisitive impact of DICS Holdings, and margin enhancement YoY was said to be driven by obtaining high-margin projects, which we believe also stems from raised pricing and improving consultant productivity.
  • Management continues to invest in the business primarily via recruitment and building business alliances that should strengthen its network and selling activities.

Carr’s Group – At an inflexion point

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group plan to dispose of the Engineering businesses remains on track and will leave the company as a focused agricultural supplies business. Restructuring (both the cost base and exiting loss-making activities) along with actions from the new management and potential from a market upturn should provide positive forward momentum and support the future growth strategy.


Ast Spacemobile Inc (ASTS) – Sunday, Sep 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • AST Spacemobile (ASTS) is overvalued at $9.4 billion as a pre-revenue company with uncertain prospects
  • The company has launched 5 satellites but would need at least 60 more for a meaningful commercial offering
  • Stock price has surged on hype, but challenges in business model and high costs of satellite deployment remain significant obstacles for ASTS

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Hyundai Mobis, SHEIN, Hang Seng Index, Signet Jewelers, Wayfair Inc Class A, Air China Ltd (H), Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KG, CP Axtra , Vera Bradley and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact
  • 2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI December 09-13
  • Signet Jewelers Limited: Can Its Strategic Capital Allocation Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
  • Wayfair Inc (W) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Five Easy Charts Showing China’s Tourism Recovery To Date
  • Borussia Dortmund – Taking on the world
  • Cp Axtra – CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project
  • VRA: Snapping the Store: Meeting Xmas Wishes; Reiterate Buy, $5.50 Price Target


KRX Value-Up Index Rebalance Results and Estimated Passive Impact

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX updated the Value-Up Index with five new names: KB Financial, Hana Financial, KT Corp, SK Telecom, and Hyundai Mobis, with Mobis replacing JB Financial, surprising the market.
  • This is the first rebalancing, packed into one day, so expect notable price action. Reverse moves could also follow Thursday as pre-positioned trades unwind, so monitor price action closely.
  • Even after Thursday’s rebalancing, half of the funds, especially from the National Pension Service, will flow into high-yield stocks, likely driving significant price moves through early next year.

2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia next year. 
  • This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in Asia in 2025.
  • Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, LG Electronics India, Shein, Sony Financial Group, Didi Global, and Okada Manila.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI December 09-13

By John Ley

  • Both HSI and HSCEI show characteristics of being short gamma at higher strikes highlighted by Mondays pop in spot and vol in both markets.
  • Implied vol did a complete round-trip closing virtually unchanged from last week despite spot holding on to modest gains on the week and large high – low range.
  • Up-Strike Calls look to have been added in both markets which will help maintain the positive spot vol correlation.

Signet Jewelers Limited: Can Its Strategic Capital Allocation Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Signet Jewelers’ third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report presents a nuanced outlook on the company’s current standing and its future trajectory.
  • The company has demonstrated a mixed performance, showing improvements in certain areas while encountering challenges in others.
  • One of the notable positives from the report is Signet’s continued sales momentum, as indicated by the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential same-store sales improvement, despite an overall decline of 0.7% in same store sales.

Wayfair Inc (W) – Monday, Sep 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Wayfair has 4k primary customers and multiple brands under their umbrella
  • Their business model involves offering a wide selection of furniture and home goods at competitive prices
  • Wayfair is positioned to benefit from current market conditions and has potential for growth and profitability in the coming years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Five Easy Charts Showing China’s Tourism Recovery To Date

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we chart the progress of China’s tourism recovery vs pre-pandemic levels
  • In October 2024, Chinese outbound (international) demand finally reached pre-Covid levels
  • The recovery in domestic activity was completed earlier and more quickly than outbound

Borussia Dortmund – Taking on the world

By Edison Investment Research

Borussia Dortmund is one of the leading football clubs in Europe, with a strong track record in its domestic league, which has enabled it to feature regularly in Europe’s leading club competitions. Its relatively consistent success and, therefore, high level of media exposure means it is well positioned to benefit from structural growth drivers such as increasing global interest in football, which will support the growth of its multiple revenue streams. Perhaps most importantly, the club’s sporting success has been achieved with low levels of investment versus its peers, which reflects management’s financial prudence.


Cp Axtra – CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

  • Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate increase in interest expenses from higher debt.
  • However, revenue generation is expected to begin in 2Q26E. Medium-term risks may arise from intensified competition in the same area, but the long-term prospects are positive for CPAXT, as the project could provide stable income if executed as planned.
  • Maintain a Neutral recommendation: The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals (the stock price sees 2.4% downside risk from its fair value) and the long- term growth prospects (profit growth expected at a 14% CAGR over the next two years). 

VRA: Snapping the Store: Meeting Xmas Wishes; Reiterate Buy, $5.50 Price Target

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $5.50 price target for Vera Bradley after visiting main line and outlet stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
  • We believe, with an emphasis on key price points, compelling sale items and a focus on winning collaborations (Wicked and Disney), Vera Bradley is well positioned to drive gifting purchases for Xmas shoppers and, continue to attract curious customers attracted to the company’s Project Restoration driven new offerings and looks.
  • Given low expectations and solid pricing power, we believe there remains some upside to 4Q and we reiterate our Buy rating and $5.50 price target for BBW.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 13th): Naver and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 13th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, KB Financial
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 13th): Mediatek, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision Industry
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, King Yuan Electronics, Wiwynn


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 13th): Naver, Samsung Electronics, KB Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Dec 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD469.7bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD582mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics, KB Financial.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 13th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 13th): Mediatek, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision Industry

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 13th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,021.0bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD704mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Mediatek, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Accton Technology.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, King Yuan Electronics, Wiwynn

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision Industry, King Yuan Electronics, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Elite Material.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Situation Is Different for REITs that Rely on Capital Increase and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Situation Is Different for REITs that Rely on Capital Increase, Despite the Same Low P/B Issue


The Situation Is Different for REITs that Rely on Capital Increase, Despite the Same Low P/B Issue

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Repurchasing investment units, increasing dividends through property sales, and increasing EPS through negative goodwill of M&A seem to be the share price raising measures necessary for capital increase for growth.
  • When increasing capital amid stagnated REIT stock prices, it’s questionable whether the picture that is drawn after capital increase is reasonable in the face of rising required returns by investors.
  • When the profitability of REIT investment companies is in question, it is not surprising that activist investors will focus on management issues, including cost of capital or corporate governance.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Central Bank Watch and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Central Bank Watch


Ohayo Japan | Central Bank Watch

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks ended Friday’s session relatively flat, with the S&P 500 closing unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.1%
  • Markets are bracing for a pivotal week with central banks in focus. The Federal Reserve will announce its final policy decision of the year on Wednesday
  • The Bank of Japan and Bank of England follow with decisions on Thursday.

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Daily Brief ECM: LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case
  • Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics
  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO: Superior Margins and Growth Warrants a Premium
  • ECM Weekly (16th Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Mao Geping, Digico, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Quantum


LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.   
  • In 2020, Macquarie Asset Management bought a 35% stake from LG Corp for KRW950 billion, beating KKR & Co (KKR US), the other shortlisted bidder.
  • The bull case rests on an attractive market, improving visibility, strong AI-led growth, below-peer average dependence on related parties, and top-tier profitability. 

Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Shenzhen Dobot, a CICC-backed robotics unicorn, aims to raise up to HK$830M (~$107M) in the initial public offering in Hong Kong.
  • The offering is expected to be between HK$18.80 and HK$20.80, implying a market cap of ~HK$8B or ~$1B at the midpoint of the price range.  
  • Given Shenzhen Dobot’s long-term growth opportunities and high TAM, they are likely to get a premium valuation, and the company could trade like UBTech Robotics and Doosan Robotics.

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO: Superior Margins and Growth Warrants a Premium

By Nicholas Tan

  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) is looking to raise up to US$295m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss the industry growth, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

ECM Weekly (16th Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Mao Geping, Digico, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Quantum

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, a number of offerings were live in India, in a bid to beat the year-end lull.
  • On the placements front, there was a large placement for SenseTime Group (20 HK) and a number of smaller deals in India.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade
  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks
  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) – ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks
  • Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade
  • MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn
  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes
  • [Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations
  • [Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
  • [Quiddity Index] MVIS Global Defense Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations


MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes

By Brian Freitas


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

By Brian Freitas


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas



Korean Dems Push for Commercial Act Amendment by Year-End: Game-Changer for Value-Up Trade

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Dems are serious about the Commercial Act amendment, with Lee Jae-myung personally attending the policy forum to pitch the change directly to key business players.
  • Key takeaways: expanding directors’ fiduciary duties to all shareholders and mandatory cumulative voting, which could empower minority shareholders and reignite value-up policies in Korean companies.
  • The Dems plan to fast-track the Commercial Act amendment by year-end, with implementation likely by Q2 next year, boosting market moves and reigniting the value-up trade ahead of May’s election.

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

By Brian Freitas


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 20 December. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$17m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
  • The largest inflows are in Charter Hall, Gpt Group, Dexus Property and Region RE while the largest outflows will be from Goodman Group, Scentre Group and Vicinity Centres.

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
  • There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
  • We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
  • We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Global Defense Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
  • Amentum Holdings (AMTM US) is an ADD and Chemring Group PLC (CHG LN) is a DEL for the MV Global Defense Index in December 2024. 
  • We expect a one-way flow of US$138mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 8.6%.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward
  • Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes
  • Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks
  • Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.
  • China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation
  • KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers
  • China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,


Nidec (6594 JP): India & Nvidia Point the Way Forward

By Scott Foster

  • Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.
  • Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up. 
  • Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year’s EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade. 

Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates

By William Keating

  • Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a “say do” approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
  • Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can’t deliver, MJ won’t hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
  • Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won’t be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
  • UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
  • CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares

Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • A long-short strategy with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank Of India outperformed the NSE Nifty Bank Index by 2.1% from 21 November to present.
  • The trade is supported by strong fundamentals, institutional and systemic aspects, and favorable technical factors.
  • The strategy is market-neutral with zero correlation to the Nifty Bank Index, enhanced by the yield pick-up from shorting the futures in a contango market.

Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
  • Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  
  • Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Apple’s 2nm Power Move with TSMC — Beating Samsung Yet Again
  • Why TSMC’s 2nm Will be Huge — Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung & Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers
  • The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working — Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.  
  • It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.  
  • Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn’t been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.  

China Tobacco Intl (6055 HK): A Bullish Expectation

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Management of China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK) is bullish on earnings in the next two years, with tobacco leaf import and cigarette export being the key drivers.
  • Elevated tobacco leaf price is positive to CTI while more re-opening of duty-free shops (currently only 50% of pre-COVID level) will add to revenue momentum.
  • A light gearing of just 2% and potentially more parent asset injection are CTI’s strengths. The company plans to maintain a steady uptrend on absolute DPS annually. 

KE (BEKE): New Home Decline Narrowed, The Top Agent Needed by Landlords and Developers

By Ming Lu

  • The decline of new home sales was narrowed in the past ten months.
  • New home, rental, and furnishing businesses grew strongly in 3Q24.
  • We believe the operating margin will improve in 2025 and 2026.

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

By Ming Lu

  • NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
  • Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
  • Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.

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Daily Brief Macro: 2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong – Part 1 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong – Part 1
  • The Public Embraces the Trump Honeymoon
  • Could A Hawkish Rate Cut Rattle Markets?
  • US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter
  • Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring


2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into Hong Kong – Part 1

By Rikki Malik

  • Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets.  
  • Short to mid-term concerns on the Indian market warrant this strategic change
  • Slowing revenue growth and less government spending leading to decelerating profits which is not yet reflected in market multiples

The Public Embraces the Trump Honeymoon

By Cam Hui

  • In the wake of Trump’s electoral win, market participants have given him the benefit of the doubt and embraced a honeymoon.
  • Expectations for equity returns are high and sentiment is becoming frothy.
  • Risks are rising, but we would tactically monitor if market technical and sentiment conditions progress in January.

Could A Hawkish Rate Cut Rattle Markets?

By Cam Hui

  • The continued lack of disinflationary progress in the November CPI and PPI reports is setting up conditions for a hawkish rate cut at the December meeting.
  • The big question is how this affects overall risk appetite. Elections of new presidents often set up a honeymoon period characterized by small-cap outperformance, which has been lacking this year.
  • Our base case is a rally into year-end, but we would like to see confirmation from better relative performance of high-beta small-cap stocks

US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter

By Said Desaque

  • Narrow leadership in the S&P500 has evoked memories of the conditions that prevailed in the late-1990s. US history is littered with periods of even greater concentration of equity market leadership.
  • Narrow leadership of the S&P500 reflects the shift in the distribution of corporate profits in favour of larger companies as important sectors within the US economy have become more concentrated. 
  • Current valuations of the top 10 S&P500 stocks are lower than the 2000 peak. Exuberant profit expectations present the biggest threat to US equities as opposed to narrow leadership.

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

By Sameer Taneja

  • China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
  • Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
  • We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 

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Daily Brief Australia: Perseus Mining, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Westgold Resources, Mirvac Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade
  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks
  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes
  • [Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
  • [Quiddity Index] MV Australia Equal Weight Dec 24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations


MVIS Australia Resources Index Rebalance: 3 Adds, Capping & Float Changes

By Brian Freitas


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

By Brian Freitas


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Only Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 20 December. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$17m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
  • The largest inflows are in Charter Hall, Gpt Group, Dexus Property and Region RE while the largest outflows will be from Goodman Group, Scentre Group and Vicinity Centres.

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
  • We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.

[Quiddity Index] MV Australia Equal Weight Dec 24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Australia Equal Weight Index represents the performance of large, liquid companies incorporated in Australia and listed on the ASX.
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is an ADD for the December 2024 review, with no other changes to the index.
  • We expect a one-way flow of $US90mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.5%.

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