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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Chugai Pharmaceutical, BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp., D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well
  • BenQ BM Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates – Performance Continues to Deteriorate
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) 4576 JP – Full Report

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US) has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.
  • At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.
  • Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.

BenQ BM Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates – Performance Continues to Deteriorate

By Nicholas Tan

  • BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp. (BBHC HK)  is looking to raise at least $US100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • BenQ is a leading private for-profit general hospital group in mainland China, operating two general hospitals – Nanjing BenQ Hospital and Suzhou BenQ Hospital.
  • In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance. 

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) 4576 JP – Full Report

By Sessa Investment Research

  • SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last 12 months.
  • Key advances include: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house H-1337 PIIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug”),
  • 2) commencing jointly developed Japan PII clinical trials of regenerative medicine cell therapy DWR-2206 with ActualEyes, and successfully completing all transplants

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Industrials: LS Corp, HMM Co., Ltd., Hyundai Engineering & Construction, ABB Ltd, Green Impact Partners , Legrand SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play
  • HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End
  • Korea Value Up (3 Winners and 7 Losers Among KOSPI 200 Companies) In March and April 2025
  • Weekly Update (ABB, MEDXF, LION)
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Green Impact Partners (GIP)
  • Legrand S.A. – Company Update: March 21, 2025

Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • They’re making it easier to spot stocks benefiting from policy shifts. Lee Jae-myung’s camp is giving more detail upfront, with a focus on FuriosaAI and related listed stocks.
  • If cumulative voting passes, expect a pop in stocks with governance issues, activist interest, or large NPS stakes, like Hyosung affiliates, Doosan, HL Mando, and POSCO Holdings.
  • They also aim to give parent shareholders first crack at spun-off subsidiaries going public and require buyback cancellations, likely benefiting SK and LS Group affiliates, Samsung Electronics, and POSCO Holdings.

HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End

By Sanghyun Park

  • This buyback facilitates KDB’s exit, as rules prevent a block trade benefiting one shareholder. KDB plans to tender a 4–5% stake, or about 40% of the 2 trillion KRW buyback.
  • Given HMM’s tight float, the premium is likely above the usual 10%, making it a strong opportunity for short-term arbitrage trading.
  • The key is timing the announcement. With the June deadline, we need to monitor hot money flows into HMM to build our position before the news breaks.

Korea Value Up (3 Winners and 7 Losers Among KOSPI 200 Companies) In March and April 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the details of the 10 most recent companies in KOSPI 200 that have announced their Corporate Value Up plans (April and March 2025).
  • These 10 companies in KOSPI 200 that have announced their Corporate Value Up plans are down on average 1.3% versus KOSPI which is down 2% in the same period.
  • Three companies that have outperformed KOSPI (since their Corporate Value Up report announcement) include Hanmi Semiconductor, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, and Samyang Foods. 

Weekly Update (ABB, MEDXF, LION)

By Richard Howe

  • April 17, 2025, ABB Ltd (ABB) announced its intention to spin off its entire robotics division.
  • The robotics unit, recognized as the world’s second-largest industrial robot manufacturer after Japan’s FANUC, generated $2.3 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for approximately 7% of ABB’s total sales.
  • However, its profit margin stood at 12.1%, trailing the group’s overall margin of 18.1%, primarily due to subdued demand in the automotive sector.​

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Green Impact Partners (GIP)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).
  • Energy Technology (12.5% of the index) was up 0.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.5% of the index) was up 3.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.9% of the index) was down 1.7%.
  • Top 10 Performers: TMC, EGT, HCNWF, CVW, HLGN, GGR, SX, IPWR, ABML, WAVE

Legrand S.A. – Company Update: March 21, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue range at around €9,168 million and for 2026 at around €9,718 million.
  • The company’s annual revenue reached €8,649 million in 2024 compared to €8,417 million in 2023, post- ing an increase by 2.76%. Legrand S.A. (or the company) gross profit for FY 2024 was €4,466 million, increased by 1.52% compared to €4,399 million for the corresponding period of 2023.
  • In addition, during FY 2024 EBITDA amounted to €2,022 million, while EBT and EATAM settled at €1,578 million and €1,166 million respectively.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Financials: Chiyoda Corp, Nikkei 225, NIFTY Index, Profile Systems & Software and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.
  • Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18):  Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks
  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Improved Risk Sentiment & Truncated Week Cause Risk-Premia Compression
  • Profile Systems and Software S.A. -Friday April 4th, 2025

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Mapletree, a real estate firm, has sold Scottish student housing to a Dutch fund manager, expanding its international portfolio.
  • Shanghai office rents have decreased for the 12th consecutive quarter, reflecting a downward trend in the local real estate market.
  • Central Tokyo office rents have increased due to rising construction costs, impacting rates for new supply and attracting investor interest.

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18):  Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks

By John Ley

  • Nikkei rebounded and volatility eased meaningfully – implied vol giving back much of last week’s spike.
  • USD/JPY softened alongside a broader break in DXY, raising questions about the depth of demand for USD assets.
  • Option volumes dropped, and Put activity held steady with no clear directional tilt in flow.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Improved Risk Sentiment & Truncated Week Cause Risk-Premia Compression

By Sankalp Singh

  • Improved risk sentiment & holiday truncated week cause compression of risk premia. Monthly IVs fell over -5.0 vol-points over the 3-day session to close at 14.2%. 
  • Vol-Regime continues to stay in “High & Up” vol-state. Stabilization in IVs & RVs required for switch to “High & Down”. Extreme Backwardation of the Vol-curve has now subsided
  • Tactical Implications: (1) Negative Gamma strategies have been battered. Avoid allocation to these while “High & Up” vol-state prevails. 

Profile Systems and Software S.A. -Friday April 4th, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Profile Group achieved record breaking revenue growth in 2024 with €40.1m, marking a 33% increase driven by an expansion of new deals and company upgrades.
  • EBITDA increased by 41% in 2024 reaching €10.3m compared to €7.3m in 2023 due to operational efficiencies and technological improvements.
  • Earnings before tax grew 41% to €7.3m, up from €5.1m, while earnings after tax increased by 45% to €5.6m compared to €3.8m in the previous year.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 18th): Remegen and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 18th): Remegen, Shandong Gold Mining, Innocare Pharma
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 18th): SCSB, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 18th): Yang Ming Marine, Hon Hai Precision, Global Unichip
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 18th): Hdhms, Celltrion, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 18th): Advanced Info Service, PTT Oil and Retail

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 18th): Remegen, Shandong Gold Mining, Innocare Pharma

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 90.4% as of Apr 18th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -0.5ppt week-on-week, led by health care, consumer staples, materials and offset by real estate, energy, consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Remegen, Shandong Gold Mining, Innocare Pharma, China Oilfield Services.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 18th): SCSB, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 18th which has an aggregated holding worth USD815.1bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,916mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SCSB, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 18th): Yang Ming Marine, Hon Hai Precision, Global Unichip

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Yang Ming Marine, Hon Hai Precision, Global Unichip, Unimicron Technology.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 18th): Hdhms, Celltrion, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 18th which has an aggregated holding worth USD474.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD41mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hdhms, Celltrion, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 18th): Advanced Info Service, PTT Oil and Retail

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 18th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Advanced Info Service, PTT Oil and Retail.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief ECM: Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook
  • Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
  • If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
  • If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.

Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

By Daniel Hellberg

  • FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
  • Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
  • Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Rally as Trade Tensions Ease and Hopes Rise for Bilateral Deal
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Federal Reserve will feature prominently this week, with speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials amid rising political pressure from President Trump.
  • The market is set for significant swings as key earnings announcements from major companies expected. FANUC, Nidec, and KEYENCE will announce their fiscal year 2025 results
  • Nintendo will start accepting reservations for its new Switch 2 game console in the US on the 24th, after postponing from the 9th to assess the impact of tariffs.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Rally as Trade Tensions Ease and Hopes Rise for Bilateral Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • The stock market ended on a strong note, with both the Nikkei 225 (+3.4%) and the  Topix (+3.7%) indices posting substantial weekly gains amid ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations
  • Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa’s meeting with President Trump on Thursday proved pivotal, with Trump reportedly identifying a deal with Japan as a “top priority.”
  • Auto stocks posted impressive gains Tuesday after reports that Trump was considering pausing his 25% levies on auto imports, with Mazda (+8%) leading the sector for the week.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
  • DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
  • Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO
  • Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
  • Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
  • Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia. 
  • U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match. 
  • Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
  • ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
  • ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

By Nicolas Baratte

  • DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
  • Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
  • The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging. 
  • AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds. 
  • Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
  • We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
  • New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust

Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO

By J Capital Research

  • American Data Centers, after a one-month stint as a joint venture between bush league broker Dominari Holdings (NASDAQ: DOMH) and Eric and Donald Trump Jr., is now becoming a bitcoin miner and hoping for a Nasdaq IPO.
  • ADC is doing this in tandem with a public company that already failed at mining. We strongly doubt that either ADC, in its shape shift to miner, or its public sponsor will be a good bet for investors. 
  • On March 31, 2025, Eric Trump announced plans for a joint venture bitcoin mining company with Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ: HUT).

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

  • NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
  • FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
  • Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

By Patrick Liao

  • After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
  • Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
  • Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  

Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

By Michael Causton

  • Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
  • The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
  • It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
  • We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
  • We add ICTSI (ICT PM)  and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our Philippines high-conviction list, which we will be initiating coverage on shortly. 

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
  • Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
  • Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall in Low Volume
  • Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

By Travis Lundy

  • Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
  • In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs). 
  • Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
  • Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
  • The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

By Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall in Low Volume

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia fall small. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
  • For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. I think the trend is still to widening but torsion. 
  • The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping.

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
  • Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks. 
  • We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China’s court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Macro: Populism Meets Productivity: The Economic Roadmap of Trump’s Second Term and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Populism Meets Productivity: The Economic Roadmap of Trump’s Second Term
  • Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns
  • The 60/40 in an Era of American Unexceptionalism
  • Complex Anatomy of the Tariff Crisis Presents Financial Markets With Multiple Permutations
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Populism Meets Productivity: The Economic Roadmap of Trump’s Second Term

By Albert Maass

  • Trump’s economic agenda faces structural realities in manufacturing, immigration, and energy that challenge populist solutions and require targeted approaches.
  • Successful policy implementation demands balancing protectionist promises with market dynamics through strategic industrial policy and graduated enforcement.
  • A pragmatic roadmap includes sector-specific interventions, workforce development, and new success metrics beyond traditional economic indicators.

Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns

By Cam Hui

  • Trump’s main objective in his trade war is to erect a trade wall around China, but it’s unclear how successful he will be as his allies are wavering.
  • The U.S. economy is weakening. At a minimum, the markets will undergo a growth scare, though an actual recession isn’t a certainty.
  • The challenge in the long term is the continuation of American Exceptionalism, consisting of long U.S. market leadership, long multi-nationals and a buy-the-dip mentality

The 60/40 in an Era of American Unexceptionalism

By Cam Hui

  • Markets are increasingly concerned about the USD and Treasury assets as a safe haven.
  • Investors can consider diversifying into a basket of non-U.S. sovereign bonds, but at the price of a lower coupon rate and a history of underperformance.
  • The current combination of technical, sentiment and fundamental conditions indicate the stock market is ripe for a short-term relief rally, with a substantial risk of a much deeper downdraft.

Complex Anatomy of the Tariff Crisis Presents Financial Markets With Multiple Permutations

By Said Desaque

  • US financial markets are currently in the aftershocks phase that always follows a crisis triggering event. Markets are often divorced from reality during these periods and pricing becomes irrational.   
  • Tariffs will negatively affect US economic growth, but the long-term impact depends on corporations’ capital allocation response to a new trading environment. Future distribution of national income will become important.
  • Tariffs will adversely impact the equity risk premium, while Fed policy conduct will also play a role. Corporate profit expectations for 2025 have been lowered. Long-term growth estimates remain intact.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
  • Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
  • Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief India: Zomato, Swiggy, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
  • Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
  • Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
  • Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
  • The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.
  • Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.
  • Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

  • NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
  • FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
  • Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

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