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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
  • While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder

Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder

By Douglas Kim

  • On 18 April, it was reported that Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) will become the second largest shareholder of Jeju Bank (006220 KS).
  • Douzone Bizon invested 57 billion won for a 14.99% stake in Jeju Bank. Through this investment, Douzone will aim to enhance the digital business of Jeju Bank.
  • This deal is likely to positively impact Jeju Bank’s shares as this capital raise is used to further invest in ERP based banking that could further boost its sales. 

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.
  • The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
  • The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals
  • Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Morgan Stanley purchases 50% stake in $380M Frasers Australian warehouse portfolio, expanding its real estate holdings.
  • CapitaLand seeks $380M China Mall REIT listing in Shanghai, showing confidence in China’s retail market.
  • China experiences moderate home price growth in March, with some cities showing signs of recovery after recent slowdowns.

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
  • TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
  • With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
  • With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
  • Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) H1FY25 revenue rose 6.5% YoY, mainly driven by surgical segment, eyeless needles segment, while margins remained under pressure.
  • Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Expecting Yen appreciation against the USD, the company expects just mid-single-digit sales and operating income growth for FY25.
  • Mani shares plunged 5% since it published its H1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Macro: Pretexts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts
  • Overview #23 Gold, Bonds and the USD

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

By Thomas Lam

  • The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
  • The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
  • But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     

Overview #23 Gold, Bonds and the USD

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
  • Gold is now considered the most crowded trade. Should we be worried?
  • Who is going to buy US government bonds going forward?

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Jeju Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder

Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder

By Douglas Kim

  • On 18 April, it was reported that Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) will become the second largest shareholder of Jeju Bank (006220 KS).
  • Douzone Bizon invested 57 billion won for a 14.99% stake in Jeju Bank. Through this investment, Douzone will aim to enhance the digital business of Jeju Bank.
  • This deal is likely to positively impact Jeju Bank’s shares as this capital raise is used to further invest in ERP based banking that could further boost its sales. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief United States: Tesla and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

  • A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
  • Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
  • Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief China: Frasers Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Morgan Stanley purchases 50% stake in $380M Frasers Australian warehouse portfolio, expanding its real estate holdings.
  • CapitaLand seeks $380M China Mall REIT listing in Shanghai, showing confidence in China’s retail market.
  • China experiences moderate home price growth in March, with some cities showing signs of recovery after recent slowdowns.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Mani Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns
  • Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • A benefit of inflation was expected to shift from management that accumulates cash to management that proactively uses cash. However, it’s been used for shareholder returns but less for apex.
  • Hitachi is one of few companies that manage business in disciplined manner and execute the necessary growth investments. This is more result of overseas investor engagement than corporate governance reform.
  • The key to Japanese equities outperformance is whether management can change to mindset that investors want to see “positive investment and the ability to implement measures to expand corporate value.”

Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) H1FY25 revenue rose 6.5% YoY, mainly driven by surgical segment, eyeless needles segment, while margins remained under pressure.
  • Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Expecting Yen appreciation against the USD, the company expects just mid-single-digit sales and operating income growth for FY25.
  • Mani shares plunged 5% since it published its H1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 19
0

Daily Brief India: Bharti Airtel, Time Technoplast, NIFTY Index, Vinati Organics and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities
  • The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
  • NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
  • The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
  • While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
  • TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
  • With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

  • The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
  • Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
  • The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
  • With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
  • Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Time Technoplast, Vinati Organics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
  • The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
  • TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
  • With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
  • With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
  • Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free