Smartkarma Daily Briefs

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there was a lack of fireworks from last week’s listing. This week might have some better luck.
On the placements front, there was no dearth of deals with raisings across the region.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

Denso Corp(6902JP)-Focus on RoE Maximization, Tariff Costs Mitigation & Cross-Shareholding Reduction

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Focus on RoE Maximization : Denso Corp (6902 JP) targets FY2026 ROE of 10.7%, leveraging disciplined capital allocation, cost efficiency, and improved profit recovery to exceed cost of capital.
Tariff Cost Mitigation: Company absorbed ¥12.5bn tariff hit in Q1, with full-year ¥130bn impact offset through US localization and pricing negotiations from Q2 onward.
.Cross-Holding Reduction: Accelerated divestment of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) , coupled with ~¥610bn buybacks, underscores commitment to resolve cross-holding overhang and boost shareholder returns.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Meta, Boeing Co, Amdocs Ltd, Copper, Duolingo, Trimble Navigation, Cf Industries Holdings, Bio Techne Corp, Dutch Bros Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective
Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI
Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!
Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!
Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math
Trimble Doubles TC1 Bookings Across Europe—Will Expansion Unlock a Global Revenue Surge?
CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!
Bio-Techne Faces NIH & Tariff Uncertainty–Can They Outpace Policy Risks?
Dutch Bros: A Tale Of Beverage Innovation and Product Diversification!

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

By Patrick Liao

Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.
Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged.
TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV).

Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI

In a high-stakes move to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving AI landscape, Meta Platforms is radically restructuring its artificial intelligence organization.
The company is dismantling its existing Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) and splitting it into four specialized groups—focused on research, product, infrastructure, and superintelligence.
This development follows months of internal tension and strategic uncertainty, culminating in a significant leadership pivot with the appointment of Scale AI’s founder Alexandr Wang as Meta’s new Chief AI Officer.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!

Amdocs recently announced its financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which showcased mixed results and highlighted the company’s strategic focus areas and operational achievements.
The company recorded a revenue of $1.14 billion, marking a 3.5% increase in pro forma constant currency compared to the previous year.
This was aided by significant contributions from various regions, most notably a record quarter in Europe.

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.

Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math

Duolingo’s second-quarter 2025 results illustrate a company in a robust growth phase, marked by strong financial performance and promising strategic developments, balanced with some areas requiring further attention.
On the positive side, Duolingo continues to show impressive financial strength with record profitability and solid top-line growth across all subscription tiers.
This performance has enabled the company to once again raise its full-year guidance, highlighting confidence in its ongoing strategy.

Trimble Doubles TC1 Bookings Across Europe—Will Expansion Unlock a Global Revenue Surge?

Trimble’s second quarter of 2025 financial results demonstrate a mixed performance with notable strengths and some areas of challenge.
Organized around its Connect & Scale strategy, the company reported a revenue of $876 million for the quarter, reflecting a 9% organic increase.
The annual recurring revenue (ARR) hit $2.21 billion, marking a 14% organic rise, while earnings per share (EPS) grew by 15% to $0.71.

CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!

CF Industries’ first half and second quarter of 2025 financial results reveal a mixture of operational successes and broader market challenges.
The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion for the first half, evidencing strong operational performance amidst a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
CF Industries has successfully launched the Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Project, which began operations in July and is anticipated to generate significant returns due to tax benefits and low-carbon product premiums.

Bio-Techne Faces NIH & Tariff Uncertainty–Can They Outpace Policy Risks?

Bio-Techne Corporation recently shared their financial outcomes for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year 2025.
The company reported a solid quarter, with a 3% organic revenue growth driven mainly by the biopharma end markets, particularly among large pharmaceutical clients.
This growth was attributed to the company’s products, such as automated proteomic analytical instruments and cell therapy solutions.

Dutch Bros: A Tale Of Beverage Innovation and Product Diversification!

Dutch Bros Coffee reported strong results for the second quarter of 2025, supported by robust performance across multiple business metrics and the execution of strategic initiatives.
The company experienced a notable revenue growth of 28%, and system same-shop sales growth of 6.1%.
Company-operated same-shop sales increased by 7.8%, driven by a 3.7% rise in transactions.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief China: BYD, CaoCao, Dongfeng Motor, Tencent, ENN Energy, China Telecom (H), Shanghai Conant Optical, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Horizon Robotics, Lenovo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade
HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Healthcare Index Review Announced; 10 ADDs, 4 DELs, 1 More Member Net
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Internet & IT Index Review; Funding Flows Dominate in $850mm Trade
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSTECH Review Announced; No Name Changes, Big Flows

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Tencent (700 HK) vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: After Tencent’s recent outperformance, going long the HSI and short Tencent targets an 8% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 – maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Healthcare Index Review Announced; 10 ADDs, 4 DELs, 1 More Member Net

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Healthcare Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 73 constituents.
Team Quiddity had expected 6 ADDs+1 DEL. We got 10 ADDs and 4 DELs. Our 7 names were correct and the other three DELs were our next three choices.
This is a smallish index, so we see US$300+mm to trade but there are a couple of big buys in terms of ADV.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… unwinds. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.3% H underperformance vs As, 4% wider on the highest AH premia.
Last week’s long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 1 tick on the week in Hs and Hs underperformed the A by 1.5%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Internet & IT Index Review; Funding Flows Dominate in $850mm Trade

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Internet and IT Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
There are 3 ADDs and 3 DELs. We predicted 2/3 ADDs and 3/3 DELs correctly.
The funding flows and FAF re-weight flows are bigger than the ADD/DEL flows but there should be ~US$850mm to trade.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSTECH Review Announced; No Name Changes, Big Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Technology Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity had one low conviction ADD/DEL pair “predicted” but there were no name changes announced.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a big FAF upweight, as expected. There are other small changes and big capping/re-capping moves. We see US$3.9bn to trade.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics , J&T Global Express , Boeing Co, Minebea Mitsumi, Curtiss Wright, Watts Water Technologies A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows
Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!
MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead
Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?
Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 88 constituents.
There were three ADDs – Pop Mart (9992 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) were expected. China Telecom (H) (728 HK) was in our LOW conviction ranks but added.
It’s not big at US$1.3bn to trade, but we have until 2 Sep to see capping or funding changes and the event will be effective 5 September at the close.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity expected 1 ADD (Pop Mart (9992 HK)) and 1 DEL (J&T Global Express (1519 HK)) and those names were announced as the sole ADD/DEL pair.
HSCEI sees some capping and re-capping flows but because it has relatively low tracking AUM, the total flows here are limited to about US$400mm.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation presented its financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating robust growth and a favorable outlook.
The company’s sales increased by 12% year-over-year, reaching $877 million, with an organic growth rate of 9%.
A significant portion of this sales growth originated from the Naval and Power segment and Defense Electronics, contributing to a 20% rise in operating income and a 130 basis point expansion in operating margins.

Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!

Watts Water Technologies reported strong second-quarter results, reflecting robust execution amidst challenges, with record highs in sales, operating income, and earnings per share.
The company saw an organic sales increase of 6%, driven by favorable pricing and demand, despite ongoing European market weaknesses.
This outcome was further supported by contributions from recent acquisitions and positive foreign exchange rates.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Surge to Records on Fed Easing Signals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Markets Surge to Records on Fed Easing Signals
China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks
Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Rise with the Rhetoric from Powell More Dovish than Expected

Ohayo Japan | Markets Surge to Records on Fed Easing Signals

By Mark Chadwick

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to an all-time high Friday, climbing 846 points or 1.9% to close at a record 45,631
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled potential monetary policy easing next month during his Jackson Hole speech.
Megacap technology stocks led the rally, with Tesla jumping 6%, Amazon and Alphabet each rising over 3%, Meta Platforms gaining more than 2%, and Nvidia adding 1.7%

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.
Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend – the Chinese insurers like China Life (2628 HK) and securities companies like Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK).
Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks – ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK).

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Rise with the Rhetoric from Powell More Dovish than Expected

By Andrew Jackson

Big jump in US homebuilders and chemical names involved in PVC/housing should jump start Shin Etsu.
Toto increasing its US production capacity aligns with its pivot away from China and makes this more interesting as housing play.
Meta’s huge capex spending plans not enough to satisfy its need for AI computing as it buys capacity from Google.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Bayan Resources, Copper, Yancoal Australia, TMC the metals co, Permian Resources , Platinum, Cf Industries Holdings, Western Midstream Partners LP, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium
Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal
TMC – Progress Toward Commercial License Continues with 4Q27 Production Goal in Sight
Permian Resources Inside Look: How Asset Quality & Smart Deals Can Power Future Outperformance!
A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1
CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!
Western Midstream Partners: The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance in 2025 & Beyond!
Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

By Rahul Jain

Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.

Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Woodside (WDS AU) vs. Yancoal (YAL AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: With Yancoal experiencing a sharp price drop after reporting earnings last week, the historically well-aligned price ratio has spiked, generating a trading signal.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

TMC – Progress Toward Commercial License Continues with 4Q27 Production Goal in Sight

By Water Tower Research

2Q25 results. TMC reported its 2Q25 financials, that included slightly higher operating loss of $22M vs. $20.3M in year-ago period, as lower exploration and development activities were offset by higher consulting costs and increased share-based compensation.
Cash on hand of $115.8M was up sharply vs. $3.5M in 2Q24 reflecting strategic investment by Korea Zinc.
Solid cash position. Pro forma cash position of $120.7M includes $8.8M in proceeds from May RDO and exercised warrants and a repayment of $3.8M credit facility that took place in early July, 2025.

Permian Resources Inside Look: How Asset Quality & Smart Deals Can Power Future Outperformance!

Permian Resources’ second-quarter 2025 earnings reveal both strengths and challenges in the company’s current operational and strategic approach.
A significant positive takeaway from Permian Resources’ performance is their robust operational execution, evident in achieving record low completion costs and the fastest well drilling in their history.
Such efficiencies have enabled the company to revise their annual production guidance upwards, while reducing their capital expenditure guidance.

A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1

By Rikki Malik

Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends

CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!

CF Industries’ first half and second quarter of 2025 financial results reveal a mixture of operational successes and broader market challenges.
The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion for the first half, evidencing strong operational performance amidst a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
CF Industries has successfully launched the Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Project, which began operations in July and is anticipated to generate significant returns due to tax benefits and low-carbon product premiums.

Western Midstream Partners: The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance in 2025 & Beyond!

Western Midstream Partners, LP reported record financial and operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, achieving the highest adjusted EBITDA in the company’s history.
The Delaware Basin emerged as a significant contributor to this success, with record oil, gas, and water throughput driving increased adjusted gross margin.
Operational expenses remained stable compared to the previous quarter due to internal cost optimization efforts, which are expected to further reduce costs in subsequent quarters.

Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

By Sameer Taneja

This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price.
With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton.
Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).

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Aug 25

Most Read: Dongfeng Motor, Sony Financial Holdings, BYD, Pop Mart, Shibaura Electronics, CaoCao, Horizon Robotics, Max Healthcare Institute and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?
HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade
HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP)
HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days
NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

As forecast, Pop Mart (9992 HK) will replace J&T Global Express (1519 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.
Pop Mart is also being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX).
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out
Can A Rate Cut Promise Overcome Tech’s Wobbles?

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate

Can A Rate Cut Promise Overcome Tech’s Wobbles?

By Cam Hui

Recent stock market leadership had become overly concentrated in large-cap technology stocks, which wobbled last week.
The good news is market breadth is broadening out, which sets the tone for further price advances.
However, weakening liquidity and negative seasonality pose short-term risks to the current uptrend.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Utilities: ENN Energy, Nisource Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition
NiSource Wins Big in Rate Cases With Massive Revenue Uplifts—Will Shareholders Reap the Rewards?

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.

NiSource Wins Big in Rate Cases With Massive Revenue Uplifts—Will Shareholders Reap the Rewards?

NiSource, a diversified energy company engaged primarily in regulated utility operations across six states, reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025.
The company posted an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22 for the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $1.19.
This performance positions NiSource to achieve the higher end of its annual adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.85 to $1.89, reflecting effective operational management and strategic focus.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP)
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,
Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks
Weekly Update (BRSL, SUNN, CON)

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is seeking to raise US$600 million, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… unwinds. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.3% H underperformance vs As, 4% wider on the highest AH premia.
Last week’s long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 1 tick on the week in Hs and Hs underperformed the A by 1.5%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,