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Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Frontier Management Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Next Target in Logistics Space?
  • Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Q3 Follow-Up


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Next Target in Logistics Space?

By Travis Lundy

  • A Nikkei article this morning several hours pre-open said that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) was preparing to sell its listed forklift subsidiary Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)
  • The story says “Investors had been pressuring Mitsubishi Heavy to spin off or delist Logisnext” and we know the TSE dislikes dual listings. I would have expected a buy-in but…
  • There are a number of reasons why a buyer could find this asset attractive. I suggest reading all the way through and the tone of the Conclusions.

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Q3 Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Frontier Management Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced Q3 FY2024/12 results on November 13, 2024.
  • Cumulative Q3 sales in the Management Consulting Business remained strong at JPY 4,444 mn (+18.1% YoY), but other segments suffered.
  • The Revitalization Support Business posted sales of JPY 1,088 mn (-15.0% YoY), reflecting the completion of a major project.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd, Korea Zinc, Shell PLC, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Crude Oil, ADX Energy Ltd, Delta Dunia Makmur, HighPeak Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio lights up the junior copper market
  • Flow Trading Setup Triggered by Korea Zinc’s 21%p Float Rate Cut in KOSPI 200
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)
  • Balancing The Scales: EUDR’s Evolving Impact On The Rubber Market
  • OPEC+ Extending Output Cuts Highlights Concerns of Weak Demand and Ample Supply
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Reflections on Welchau
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • HighPeak Energy, Inc.: – New Completions Further Derisk Acreage


Rio lights up the junior copper market

By Money of Mine

  • Rio Tinto sold 30% of its Winu project to Sumitomo for $400 million, surprising many with the valuation
  • Expecting a PFS in 2025 for a 10 million tonne per annum scenario for the Winu project
  • The partnership with Sumitomo signifies the rise of Japan and South Korea in the mining industry and may benefit Rio Tinto in terms of capital allocation and project development.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Flow Trading Setup Triggered by Korea Zinc’s 21%p Float Rate Cut in KOSPI 200

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea Zinc’s free float is dropping from 52% to 31%, a 21%p cut.
  • Despite rising volume, retail still dominates. With this trend continuing, the 80,000-share sell volume is unlikely to get buried without triggering noticeable price moves.
  • Ahead of big one-day flow events, shorts are loaded, causing a dip. On rebalance day, traders buy back, triggering a bounce. This event is likely to follow the same pattern.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

Balancing The Scales: EUDR’s Evolving Impact On The Rubber Market

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • FAQ and guidance documents bring clarity
  • Synthetic rubber out of the purview of EUDR
  • Allows for rubber suppliers in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia to catch up

OPEC+ Extending Output Cuts Highlights Concerns of Weak Demand and Ample Supply

By Suhas Reddy

  • OPEC+ extends crude oil supply cuts to the end of 2026, a year longer than planned. It also pushed its planned output hikes by three months to April 2025.
  • OPEC+ revised its output hike plan, reducing monthly increases to 138k bpd over 18 months, down from 180k bpd over 12 months.
  • OPEC+ approved a 300k bpd output increase for the UAE, starting in April 2025 through September 2026, delayed from the original January 2025 start.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Reflections on Welchau

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Three intervals in the Reifling formation (1324 m – 1340 m, 1346 m – 1351 m and 1358 m -1382 m MD) were perforated but only limited inflow was determined.
  • No fluid could reach the surface after the well was shut in.
  • • Sampling of the well indicated only completion brine (not reservoir fluid) and fine solid particles of unknown origin.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delta Dunia Makmur, Gajah Tunggal
  • In the US, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 73.8 bn in October (USD 75.0 bn e / USD 83.8 bn revised). Imports fell 4% to USD 339.6 bn, while exports declined 1.6% to USD 265.7 bn.
  • Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended November 30th rose to 224 k (215 k e / 215 k revised p). The focus today is on the November nonfarm payrolls report.

HighPeak Energy, Inc.: – New Completions Further Derisk Acreage

By Water Tower Research

  • Management estimates that HighPeak’s D,C,E,&F costs are ~$2 million lower for a well that recovers a similar volume of oil than the average central Midland Basin well.
  • The combination highlights the return proposition for HighPeak’s acreage, as recovering similar oil volumes for less than 75% of the D,C,E,&F cost equates to a capital-efficient asset base.
  • New wells drilled during 2024 in the northern and northeastern extension areas have expanded Flat Top’s development core, adding new inventory.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Medical Data Vision and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update


Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • MDV revised down its full-year FY24 guidance (discussed in more details on p.5) given the Q3 result [Q1~Q3 gross profit [GP] of ¥3,055mil (-12.8% YoY), operating loss of -¥140mil (vs FY23 Q3 OP of ¥1,111mil) on sales of ¥4,125mil (-8.1% YoY)], due to (1) the delay to the onboarding of the firm’s cloud-based health check system solution Alpha Salus as the debugging process continued through to September, and (2) a delay in mobilising potential users of the new content (no-contact vital sensing for cats) for MDV’s personal health management app Karteco, as the planned large-scale advertising campaign was pushed back following a delay in the launch of the content.
  • The firm is guiding for FY24 annual dividend of ¥6.5/share (unchanged from FY23) and generates a dividend pay-out ratio of 138.0% based on the revised FY24 EPS forecast of ¥4.71.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intel Corp, SK Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck
  • The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Dec-2024): Apple Intelligence targets China despite Baidu challenges


Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  
  • Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. 
  • Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. 

The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • If you haven’t heard the news, Pat Gelsinger is “retiring.” The reality is this was not a retirement but a firing of Pat.
  • His brief stint of 1386 days was surprising because not only was he the most technically competent CEO of the last few bad apples at Intel, but he was also among the shortest.
  • Pat has by no means been perfect, and the conference at UBS kind of showed the frustrations that the board likely had with Pat.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Dec-2024): Apple Intelligence targets China despite Baidu challenges

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Apple’s Intelligence service is working towards a launch in China, but is facing challenges with integrating Baidu.
  • NXP may be investing a significant amount of money in Karnataka, India.
  • Intel’s interim leadership team is bringing together new ideas and industry experience for a promising future, while South Korea and Japan work to mitigate US export controls on HBM.

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Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia, Hyundai Motor India , Naspers, Tesla , Herbalife Ltd, Build A Bear Workshop, Lifevantage and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): Quick Note – Preparing for Price War in 2025
  • Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)
  • A Review of Our IPO Research in 2024
  • JSE Dec 2024 Rebal: OUT to Enter Top 40, NPH to Fall Out / NPN PRX 1H Results: Discounts Catch Bid
  • Tesla Shortens Supplier Payment Terms to 90 Days Through Cost-Saving Innovations
  • Herbalife Ltd.: – Adapting to the Times; Well Positioned for Long-Term Growth
  • BBW: 3Q Review: Strong Q, BBW Worthy of a Premium Multiple; Raising PT to $58
  • LifeVantage Corporation: – Successful MindBody GLP-1 System Launch


BYD (1211 HK): Quick Note – Preparing for Price War in 2025

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’ deliveries continued to grow strongly by 68% in November.
  • BYD required its suppliers to reduce prices by 10% for 2025.
  • We believe BYD will continue the price war in 2025.

Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Home improvements player PT Daya Intiguna Yasa (Mr DIY Indonesia) completed the book building for its IPO this week for its Jakarta listing where it seeks to raise US$296m. 
  • Mr DIY  has seen a rapid rollout of outlets with over 900 stores across Indonesia and SSSG over the last two years of 30%-40% and the company is already profitable. 
  • Mr DIY  has a 25% market share of the home improvements segment focusing on the mass market with affordable products. Prefer Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia as a proxy for this space.

A Review of Our IPO Research in 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • This has been a difficult year for the global IPO market including in Korea. In this insight, we review our IPO research in 2024.
  • Using the criteria that the Aequitas Research uses (see below), the accuracy rate of our calls on the IPOs this year was 86%. 
  • There some sizeable IPOs that are expected to be completed in Korea in 2025 including LG CNS, Sono International, K Bank, and Bithumb.

JSE Dec 2024 Rebal: OUT to Enter Top 40, NPH to Fall Out / NPN PRX 1H Results: Discounts Catch Bid

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • On Wednesday, after the close, the JSE released index changes scheduled for the December rebalance (Friday, 20 Dec).
  • OUT will enter the Top 40, with NPH falling out. AMS will enter the RESI 10 and EXX will fall out.
  • Naspers and Prosus released 1H results on Monday. The discounts have narrowed through the last 3 trading days, Naspers and Prosus are up 6% and 3.1%, respectively.

Tesla Shortens Supplier Payment Terms to 90 Days Through Cost-Saving Innovations

By Caixin Global

  • Tesla has shortened its supplier payment cycle to about 90 days in 2024, continuing to outpace rivals in financial efficiency and supplier relations.
  • Tesla’s Shanghai factory, where 95% of parts are sourced locally, reflects the company’s deep integration with China’s supply chain.
  • The move highlights Tesla’s unique approach to balancing cost-cutting and supplier support in an industry under strain from intense competition, price wars and shifting dynamics between automakers and parts providers.

Herbalife Ltd.: – Adapting to the Times; Well Positioned for Long-Term Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • We are initiating coverage of Herbalife Ltd. The company has differentiated itself in its ability to successfully change with the times and capitalize on the shifting market dynamics in a period when many have not.
  • Herbalife’s independent distributors’ daily methods of operations (DMOs) have evolved, including the creation of a footprint of Nutrition Clubs that offer daily consumption options to customers, which gives the company’s products a sizable worldwide brick-and-mortar infrastructure in towns and neighborhoods where consumers live and work.
  • Following the 2016 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) consent order, Herbalife changed its compensation plan in the US so that distributor commissions were predominantly based on the demonstration of a sale to an end consumer, thereby eliminating the pyramiding risks associated with almost all multi-level marketing (MLM) business models.


BBW: 3Q Review: Strong Q, BBW Worthy of a Premium Multiple; Raising PT to $58

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our price target to $58 (from $41) and increasing our FY25 projections after Build-a-Bear reported a highly impressive 3Q, remained conservative in their guidance, continued to aggressively return capital to shareholders and raised expectations for franchised and commercial store unit expansion.
  • We believe Build-A-Bear management continues to leverage their experiential offerings to drive global growth and position the company to capture even more upside via new products and categories.
  • Given our further confidence in the potential for margin and revenue expansion, we believe BBW is more than worthy of a premium multiple, and are raising our price target to $58 (from $41), or 8.6X our new FY25 EBITDA projection.

LifeVantage Corporation: – Successful MindBody GLP-1 System Launch

By Water Tower Research

  • LifeVantage’s new MindBody GLP-1 System for weight loss is built upon the science that the company is predicated on, nutrigenomics and activating the body’s natural processes.
  • The products, which have been in development for well over a year, activate the L-cells in the body that are responsible for the production of the GLP-1 hormone.
  • In July, LifeVantage received results from in vitro testing it had done that were encouraging. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Frontier Management Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Next Target in Logistics Space?
  • Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Q3 Follow-Up


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Next Target in Logistics Space?

By Travis Lundy

  • A Nikkei article this morning several hours pre-open said that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) was preparing to sell its listed forklift subsidiary Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)
  • The story says “Investors had been pressuring Mitsubishi Heavy to spin off or delist Logisnext” and we know the TSE dislikes dual listings. I would have expected a buy-in but…
  • There are a number of reasons why a buyer could find this asset attractive. I suggest reading all the way through and the tone of the Conclusions.

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Q3 Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Frontier Management Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced Q3 FY2024/12 results on November 13, 2024.
  • Cumulative Q3 sales in the Management Consulting Business remained strong at JPY 4,444 mn (+18.1% YoY), but other segments suffered.
  • The Revitalization Support Business posted sales of JPY 1,088 mn (-15.0% YoY), reflecting the completion of a major project.

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Daily Brief Financials: Cromwell Property, Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd., Bitcoin, RHB Bank Bhd, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?
  • Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 24 Results: 100% Hit Rate; 20x+ ADV for Many Names; US$2.3bn One-Way
  • The Best of Hedgeye: Michael Saylor On Bitcoin – The Long-Term Bull Case
  • Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB
  • EQD | The KOSPI 200 Forecast (After The Attempted Coup)


Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 24 Results: 100% Hit Rate; 20x+ ADV for Many Names; US$2.3bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 6th December 2024.
  • There will be one ADD/DEL for T50, five ADDs/DELs for T100, and 8 ADDs/7 DELs for TDIV. All of these are perfectly in line with our final expectations. 
  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s final flow expectations for the December 2024 index rebal event and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.

The Best of Hedgeye: Michael Saylor On Bitcoin – The Long-Term Bull Case

By Real Conversations

  • Michael discusses the journey from being a non-believer in bitcoin to a strong advocate and investor in the asset class
  • He compares his investment strategy in bitcoin to Warren Buffet’s investment in Apple, emphasizing the importance of owning and holding onto assets
  • Michael explains his belief that there are three ways to make money: making something, trading something, or owning something, and highlights his focus on owning and holding assets as a key to success.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

By Victor Galliano

  • RHB Bank is our Malaysian bank top pick, with its real turnaround potential for returns; CIMB remains a buy but is less compelling than RHB given its marked re-rating year-to-date
  • Our new buy RHB Bank is stand-out value versus its Malaysian peers and it is improving returns from low levels; its main delinquency challenges are concentrated in small overseas portfolios
  • We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations

EQD | The KOSPI 200 Forecast (After The Attempted Coup)

By Nico Rosti

  • Our previously posted view on an upcoming KOSPI 200‘s rally has not been changed by the attempted political coup. The market pulled back a bit, no big deal.
  • The index is in the process of bottoming, as we will see from the analysis of our QUANTCHARTS / models.
  • Even if the index suddenly crashes, we have identified an area for support in that event (keep reading).

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Transurban and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Transurban, Mineral Resources, Wisetech Global, Macquarie


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Transurban, Mineral Resources, Wisetech Global, Macquarie

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 29th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Transurban, Mineral Resources, Wisetech Global, Macquarie, Pilbara Minerals, Ampol, Dexus Property, ANZ.

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Daily Brief ESG: Independent Directors Are Responsible for Disclosures that Have Gaps from the Investors’ Perspective and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Independent Directors Are Responsible for Disclosures that Have Gaps from the Investors’ Perspective


Independent Directors Are Responsible for Disclosures that Have Gaps from the Investors’ Perspective

By Aki Matsumoto

  • In many cases of bad disclosures where the capital allocation policy has not been adequately considered, the company often fails to develop a concrete growth strategy using cash.
  • The reason for the misaligned disclosures with investors may be that the company lacks the process to produce projected financial statements and to estimate corporate value/share price calculated from DCF.
  • If a plan containing unreasonable figures is disclosed as is, the independent outside director may not be involved in the decision making or may not be accompanied by adequate skills.

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Daily Brief ECM: LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO
  • LG CNS IPO Preview
  • MNC Solution IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Positives – One-Stop Shop
  • Aditya Infotech Pre-IPO – Expanding Channel Network and Increased Production Capacity to Drive Sales
  • Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Negatives – No Online Presence, PE Overhang


LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KRW 5T-6T valuation and 13x-16x PER look solid compared to local peers like SDS and Hyundai AutoEver, with CNS possibly getting a premium due to its smaller captive stake.
  • Instos probably won’t push hard for lock-ups but will aggressively target pricing to secure larger allotments, knowing the company is likely to stick with a market-friendly price.
  • On a separate note, I wouldn’t expect much of a NAV discount reduction for LG Corp, as LG CNS’s stake isn’t significant enough to move the needle.

LG CNS IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • The long awaited IPO of LG CNS is finally getting ready to be completed in February 2025. The IPO price range is 53,700 won to 61,900 won.
  • Expected market cap is between 5.2 trillion won to 6.0 trillion won. At the high end of the IPO price range, the total IPO offering would involve 1.2 trillion won.
  • The bankers used three companies including Samsung Sds, Hyundai Autoever, and NTT Data Corp as comps. This is expected to be one of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2025

MNC Solution IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • MNC Solution reported its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 65,000 won, which is 18.8% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 198 institutional investors participated in the IPO demand forecast. The competition rate was low at 8.2 to 1. 
  • Our base case valuation of MNC Solution is target price of 92,842 won per share, which is 43% higher than the IPO price of 65,000 won.

Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Positives – One-Stop Shop

By Sumeet Singh

  • Vishal Mega Mart is planning to raise around US$950m through its upcoming IPO in India.
  • Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Aditya Infotech Pre-IPO – Expanding Channel Network and Increased Production Capacity to Drive Sales

By Akshat Shah

  • Aditya Infotech Ltd (6596564Z IN) is looking to raise about US$155m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Aditya Infotech is a CCTV/video surveillance provider offering a range of advanced video security and surveillance products, technologies and solutions for enterprise and consumer segments under its CP PLUS brand.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Vishal Mega Mart Pre-IPO – The Negatives – No Online Presence, PE Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Vishal Mega Mart is planning to raise around US$950m through its upcoming IPO in India.
  • Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-good aspects of the deal.

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