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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 12th): Ci Medical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 12th): Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, Kakaopay, Samsung F&M Insurance


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 12th): Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,648m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Skylark, Nintendo, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Tokyo Electron, Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, Kakaopay, Samsung F&M Insurance

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Dec 12th. The aggregated short interest was USD12.1bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, kakaopay, Samsung F&M Insurance, Alteogen.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Trust Bank Singapore: Banking on Sustainable Growth (Initiation) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Trust Bank Singapore: Banking on Sustainable Growth (Initiation)


Trust Bank Singapore: Banking on Sustainable Growth (Initiation)

By Ben Lim

  • Operational Scale & Market Status: Trust Bank has rapidly matured into Singapore’s fourth-largest retail bank, securing over 1 million customers (approx. 20% market penetration) in just over two years.
  • Financial Performance Snapshot: The bank has reached a critical financial inflection point in FY2024, reporting a 148% surge in revenue (to S$96.9 million) while keeping operating expenses nearly flat (+3.8%).
  • Product & Ecosystem Integration: Currently, the bank drives high engagement through its “phygital” integration with FairPrice, resulting in active users averaging 21 transactions per month.

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Daily Brief ECM: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
  • OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
  • Superbank IPO Trading: Strong Backing and Fast Growth Should Aid Valuations
  • Hanx Biopharm (翰思爱泰) Pre-IPO Quick Comment: Innovative I/O Product with Early Signals
  • Shanghai Forest Cabin PHIP Update: Strong Topline and Margins in 1H25
  • Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Hashkey Group IPO Trading: Muted Insti Demand
  • Nanhua Futures A/H Listing: Some near Term Domestic Weakness


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Omnivision Intgrated Circuit (603501 CH, OVIC), a semiconductor company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • OVIC, is the world’s third largest smartphone CIS and the largest automotive CIS provider with a market share of 32.9% based on revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and likely A/H premium.

Superbank IPO Trading: Strong Backing and Fast Growth Should Aid Valuations

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Superbank (SUPA IJ) has raised US$168m in its Indonesia IPO.
  • Superbank is a digital bank in Indonesia operating through a combination of ecosystem-led distribution and its own standalone mobile application.
  • In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Hanx Biopharm (翰思爱泰) Pre-IPO Quick Comment: Innovative I/O Product with Early Signals

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Hanx Biopharm, a China-based clinical-stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. ICBCI and CITIC are the joint book runners.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s core product, HX009, and assess the selling point around the core product.
  • We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

Shanghai Forest Cabin PHIP Update: Strong Topline and Margins in 1H25

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech (SFCBT HK) is looking to raise US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands with a focus on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a PHIP update.

Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • FOREST CABIN’s been subject to administrative penalties for false advertising. The natural ingredient that consumers truly pursue holds the highest premium in essence oil, but its content/efficacy is exaggerated.
  • Pre-IPO valuation reached over RMB3.8bn. Some investors may believe that, given that FOREST CABIN’s profitability has initially been proven, its valuation is attractive. However, think FOREST CABIN have some issues.
  • Valuation of FOREST CABIN should be lower than Mao Geping. A comfortable range could be P/E of 20-30x. If future growth declined/profit margin deteriorates, valuation may fall to 10-20x P/E.

Hashkey Group IPO Trading: Muted Insti Demand

By Nicholas Tan

  • HashKey (3887 HK) raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • It operates the largest licensed crypto exchange in Hong Kong.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Nanhua Futures A/H Listing: Some near Term Domestic Weakness

By Nicholas Tan

  • Nanhua Futures Co Ltd (603093 CH) aims to raise up to US$220m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • It operates as a leading futures company in the PRC, dedicated to providing global financial services to clients.
  • In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fresh Intel Just in on KRX’s L2 Warning Revamp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Intel Just in on KRX’s L2 Warning Revamp
  • Sale of 1.1 Trillion Won Worth of Hanwha Energy by Kim Dong-Won and Kim Dong-Sun
  • Vedanta’s Radical Split: 6 New Titans for a Post-Demerger World
  • Comcast Spin-off (Versant) Spin-off Deep Dive
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December’25 Report
  • Shinsegae I&C – The Next Tender Offer Target by E-Mart?
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls IPO Lockup – US$800m Cornerstone Release


Fresh Intel Just in on KRX’s L2 Warning Revamp

By Sanghyun Park

  • “Effective immediately” matters for L2 exit timing and re-flag risk; KRX confirmed year-end announcement with instant rollout, making year-end the key flow inflection if big L2 names get exempted.
  • Large caps (₩10tn+ market cap) pulled from market-warning universe, with L2 tagging now factoring relative outperformance, not just absolute price gains, to curb overuse.
  • Of 33 L2 names, five KOSPI blue chips see re-flag risk drop after their mandatory 10-day lockup; near-term trades focus on timing these expiries for relief rallies and flow resets.

Sale of 1.1 Trillion Won Worth of Hanwha Energy by Kim Dong-Won and Kim Dong-Sun

By Douglas Kim

  • Kim Dong-Won and Kim Dong-Sun decided to sell nearly 1.1 trillion won (US$750 million) worth of Hanwha Energy.
  • Through this sale, Hanwha Energy’s value is estimated at approximately 5.5 trillion won. 
  • This large scale stake sale could result in negative sentiment/impact on Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Systems. 

Vedanta’s Radical Split: 6 New Titans for a Post-Demerger World

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) will split into 5 independent listed entities: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Oil & Gas, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Iron & Steel/Ferrous Materials, residual Vedanta Ltd (like zinc, silver). 
  • Existing shareholders will receive one share in each of the 4 demerged entities for every one share held in Vedanta Ltd (1:1 ratio).
  • The Mumbai bench of NCLT approved Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) demerger plan on December 16 lead to streamline operations, improve management focus, and unlock shareholder value.

Comcast Spin-off (Versant) Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Comcast plans to spin off its cable networks business in early 2026, with regular-way trading expected to begin on January 6, 2026.

  • Versant generates meaningful adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.

  • However, despite the cash generation, it is difficult to build conviction in the equity story.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.
  • Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.
  • Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s >70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.

Shinsegae I&C – The Next Tender Offer Target by E-Mart?

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past two years, E Mart Inc (139480 KS) has announced two tender offers of its affiliates including Shinsegae E&C (September 2024) and Shinsegae Food (031440 KS) (December 2025).
  • We believe the next target of a tender offer by E-Mart could be Shinsegae Information & Communication Co (035510 KS) in 2026/2027. 
  • We provide three main reasons why E-Mart may try to conduct a tender offer of Shinsegae I&C in 2026/2027.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls IPO Lockup – US$800m Cornerstone Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK), raised around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
  • ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Close Mixed as Jobs Growth Offset by Rising Unemployment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Close Mixed as Jobs Growth Offset by Rising Unemployment
  • Singapore Market Roundup (16-Dec-2025): Morningstar raises SGX fair value to $15, notes
  • Exencial Industry Tidings 16/12/2025


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Close Mixed as Jobs Growth Offset by Rising Unemployment

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed after November jobs added 64k (beat) but unemployment rose to 4.6%; Nasdaq +0.2% on Tesla record, S&P -0.2%, Dow -0.6%; Ford took $19.5bn EV pivot charge.
  • Mitsui & Co. (8031 JP) completed ¥800bn investment for 40% in Rhodes Ridge iron ore JV; production from 2030 at 40-50mtpa initially, expanding >100mtpa;
  • ASKA Pharmaceutical trades below book value and at sub-6x EV/EBITDA with >20% net cash; improved capital allocation, and potential PE sale as catalysts.

Singapore Market Roundup (16-Dec-2025): Morningstar raises SGX fair value to $15, notes

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Morningstar lifts SGX fair value to $15, cites strong trading but warns of overvaluation.
  • PhillipCapital lowers Sembcorp’s TP to $7.10 but keeps ‘buy’ rating.
  • Analysts are optimistic as SGX starts a new growth phase.

Exencial Industry Tidings 16/12/2025

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

  • Gold import s down 60 % in November 20 25
  • No plan to phase out or retrofit vehicles not compatible with E20 fuel
  • JioHotstar intensifies South India push with boost in regional content investments

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value
  • HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription
  • The Beat Ideas: Dixon Technologies ~ Revival or Ruin?
  • Korea Zinc: US-Backed Smelter Lifts Strategic Floor; Dilution & Control Risks Weighed
  • PB Fintech- Timing Shock Ahead?
  • Can Disciplined Execution Unlock Fenix as the Next Mid-West Iron Ore Champion?
  • CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime
  • Dolby Laboratories Just Won the TV Wars: Dolby Vision 2 Gets Major OEM Backing!
  • Alibaba Group: What’s Behind the Qwen3-Max Momentum- Inside the Model Strategy Shaping Real-World Adoption!
  • Agilent Technologies: What the Next Instrument Cycle Looks Like—Inside the LC & LC/MS Modernization Tailwind!


Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value

By Rahul Jain

  • NCLT approval removes the key overhang, enabling Vedanta’s break-up and forcing valuation discovery across aluminium, zinc/silver, power and O&G.
  • Aluminium becomes the anchor, with falling costs and ~50% EBITDA share; zinc and silver provide resilient cash flows and downside protection.
  • Intrinsic SOTP ₹1,020–1,050/share implies ~78–83% upside from CMP ₹572; execution-weighted 12-month TP ₹770 offers ~35% upside with downside protected even under stressed aluminium prices.

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • HashKey (3887 HK) confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. 
  • Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. 
  • It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to Robinhood Markets (HOOD US). It is only attractive at the low-end price.

The Beat Ideas: Dixon Technologies ~ Revival or Ruin?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) , India’s largest EMS player, benefits from PLI schemes and the China+1 strategy, driving a robust 55% revenue CAGR and scale expansion.
  • The stock’s 32% correction was driven by the regulatory probe into Chinese clients and broader EMS sectoral governance concerns.
  • Strong financial health with 51% ROCEsupports medium-term growth momentum, making its valuation attractive despite high short-term volatility.

Korea Zinc: US-Backed Smelter Lifts Strategic Floor; Dilution & Control Risks Weighed

By Rahul Jain

  • US-Backed US$7.4bn smelter embeds Korea Zinc in US critical-minerals supply chains, lifting long-term strategic relevance and valuation floor.
  • Shares eased after an initial spike as dilution, low JV ownership, governance litigation risk, and long-dated cash flows weighed on near-term sentiment.
  • We retain a ₩2.1m TP (~30% upside), supported by TC recovery, rare-metals margins, buybacks, and partial governance-discount compression.

PB Fintech- Timing Shock Ahead?

By Nitin Mangal

  • It is reported that Life Insurance industry is evaluating a shift away from traditional front-loaded commissions toward a deferred commission structure.
  • Moreover, IRDAI has intensified oversight of distribution expenses and management costs in the general and health insurance segments and looks to lower the EoM cap for the insurers.
  • These changes if considered, could pose meaningful near-term growth and margin headwinds for PB Fintech or Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN), which is already under pressure from the GST rate cuts.

Can Disciplined Execution Unlock Fenix as the Next Mid-West Iron Ore Champion?

By Umang Agrawal

  • Fenix is approaching its first million-tonne quarter, with a fully cash-funded ramp-up targeting 6 MTPA by FY28 under a disciplined capital plan.
  • Near term value is concentrated at Weld Range, while Jack Hills provides step-change optionality; Simandou is viewed as a manageable, priced-in risk.
  • W10 approvals represent the key execution risk, while labour, logistics, port capacity, and fleet availability are not considered binding constraints.

CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

By Rahul Jain

  • Brazil gold acquisition improves diversification and earnings stability; deal appears cash-funded and value-accretive at current gold prices.
  • Asset quality improves on a risk-adjusted basis, though Brazilian gold mines are higher-cost and shorter-life than tier-1 peers.
  • Valuation already reflects elevated copper and gold prices; upside now depends on commodity price persistence, not rerating.

Dolby Laboratories Just Won the TV Wars: Dolby Vision 2 Gets Major OEM Backing!

By Baptista Research

  • Dolby Laboratories reported its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 results, revealing a 6% increase in annual revenue, reaching $1.35 billion, which aligns with the company’s previously communicated guidance.
  • Operating margins also expanded by 1.8 percentage points.
  • Revenue for the fourth quarter came in at $307 million, surpassing the midpoint of guidance, with non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) at $0.99.

Alibaba Group: What’s Behind the Qwen3-Max Momentum- Inside the Model Strategy Shaping Real-World Adoption!

By Baptista Research

  • Alibaba Group’s recent results demonstrate a mixture of performance across its different business segments, with significant growth in some areas, tempered by challenges in others.
  • Positively, the company reported a 15% year-over-year increase in total revenue when excluding contributions from Sun Art and Intime, driven by strong performance in key areas such as Cloud Intelligence, which saw a remarkable 34% revenue growth.
  • This growth was largely fueled by sustained demand for AI and the increasing usage of public cloud services, evidencing Alibaba’s strong positioning in the AI and cloud sectors.

Agilent Technologies: What the Next Instrument Cycle Looks Like—Inside the LC & LC/MS Modernization Tailwind!

By Baptista Research

  • Agilent Technologies, Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing robust performance across numerous dimensions.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter was $1.86 billion, representing growth of 7.2% on a core basis.
  • This marked Agilent’s sixth consecutive quarter of core revenue growth acceleration, with the results surpassing the high end of their guidance range.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • Front-end UST yields declined yesterday, with the UST curve steepening in continuation of last week’s trend. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.50%, while that of the 10Y declined 1 bp to 4.17%.
  • Equities retreated for a second day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.
  • New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is well-positioned heading into 2026, as the FOMC has “adjusted interest rates down in a way that we think positions us really well to have these two competing kinds of risks be roughly in balance”. 

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Daily Brief Macro: 2026 High Conviction: Three Themes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks
  • UK: LFS Strengthens Policy Division
  • 2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin
  • Rubber Tailwinds, Festive Thrust Lift Tyre Makers’ Q2 FY26 Show
  • US: Noisy November After Reopening
  • Oil Futures: Crude slides again, surplus offsets geopolitical events
  • CX Daily: Trading by Algorithm: Who is Responsible When AI Calls the Shots?
  • Oil futures: Brent at post-pandemic lows amid glut narrative
  • Egypt (December 16th 2025)


2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.
  • These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it’s time to re-focus on them.
  • Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).

UK: LFS Strengthens Policy Division

By Phil Rush

  • Doves and hawks on the MPC will find support for their views in the UK labour market data. It should strengthen divergent views in December, not resolve disagreement.
  • Another rise in the unemployment rate and a shocking spike in redundancies can feed dovish fears that activity in the labour market is breaking into disinflationary weakness.
  • Hawks can see another round of upwards revisions to wages, driving surprise persistence again. Total pay’s trend is stable in recent years, and regular pay is sticking too high.

2026 HIGH CONVICTION IDEA: Long Gold / Short Bitcoin

By David Mudd

  • Whatever economic scenario unfolds in 2026, a long Gold/short Bitcoin investment should outperform. The position is up more than 50% since October.
  • As one of the most leveraged and speculative parts of global asset markets, Bitcoin will struggle as the Fed ends its interest rate cuts by the end of 2026.
  • Gold continues to benefit from the Fed’s pro-inflation policies, particularly with the restart of its $40 billion monthly QE program.  Continued currency debasement also supports a contnuation of gold’s rise.

Rubber Tailwinds, Festive Thrust Lift Tyre Makers’ Q2 FY26 Show

By Vinod Nedumudy

Highlights

  • MRF posts 11.7% YoY profit growth

  •  JK Tyre clocks record revenue, profit surge

  • Tire-makers benefit from GST-led demand rebound
  • The top performer MRF posted an 11.7% year-on-year (YoY) rise in its consolidated net profit for the July-September quarter of FY 2026 at INR 525.64 crore (US$58.34 million). The company posted a profit of INR 500.47 crore (US$55.55 million) in the FY2026 April-June quarter.

US: Noisy November After Reopening

By Phil Rush

  • US private payroll growth stayed steady through the government shutdown. Statisticians failed to collect much data for November, yielding a noisy surge in unemployment.
  • The employment-to-population ratio is steady, as are job openings and layoffs. Churn is still low, with few quits or hires, but broad resilience appears to remain unbroken.
  • Jobless claims are also stable into December, when headline data should improve. The Fed pre-empted bad news with past cuts and is unlikely to keep going in January.

Oil Futures: Crude slides again, surplus offsets geopolitical events

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were sliding lower Monday as concerns over a massive oversupply in the new year again offset geopolitical events, leaving benchmarks floundering at around two-month lows.
  • Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $60.39/b (2055 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $61.12/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $56.67/b against a previous close of $57.44/b.
  • While the market has been dogged by fears of a 2026 surplus, geopolitical uncertainty has injected some risk premium into prices and provided something of a floor, although benchmarks remain close to 2025 lows.

CX Daily: Trading by Algorithm: Who is Responsible When AI Calls the Shots?

By Caixin Global

  • Trading by Algorithm: Who is Responsible When AI Calls the Shots?                                         
  • It was a battle unlike anything Wall Street had ever seen.                  
  • No hedge fund managers.                

Oil futures: Brent at post-pandemic lows amid glut narrative

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were under pressure again on Tuesday with the December retreat seeing prices challenge the lowest levels since 2021, as the glut narrative increasingly takes hold.
  • Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $58.86/b (2023 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $60.56/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $55.21/b against a previous close of $56.82/b.
  • Sentiment has been decidedly downbeat since last week when the IEA flagged a surplus of 3.8 million bpd next year, despite it being a slight reduction from the record 4 million bpd projected in its previous report.

Egypt (December 16th 2025)

By Denis Collot

  • Inflation lower. Trade deficit improving.       

  • Next phase for privatisation pushed to Q1 2026. Markets all-in on Egypt.

  • It seems we could be in the last stretch of negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

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Daily Brief Industrials: SK Square , Singapore Airlines, Ashok Leyland, Amaero International Ltd, Gujarat Pipavav Port, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Kato Works, Prysmian SpA, Blackline Safety , Black Diamond Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Intel Just in on KRX’s L2 Warning Revamp
  • Primer: Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) – Dec 2025
  • Primer: Ashok Leyland (AL IN) – Dec 2025
  • Amaero International Ltd – Big tick from US Navy with Letter of Support
  • Primer: Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPV IN) – Dec 2025
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls IPO Lockup – US$800m Cornerstone Release
  • (16 Dec 2025) Kato Works(6390 JP) — Fisco Company Research
  • Primer: Prysmian SpA (PRY IM) – Dec 2025
  • Primer: Blackline Safety (BLN CN) – Dec 2025
  • Primer: Black Diamond Group (BDI CN) – Dec 2025


Fresh Intel Just in on KRX’s L2 Warning Revamp

By Sanghyun Park

  • “Effective immediately” matters for L2 exit timing and re-flag risk; KRX confirmed year-end announcement with instant rollout, making year-end the key flow inflection if big L2 names get exempted.
  • Large caps (₩10tn+ market cap) pulled from market-warning universe, with L2 tagging now factoring relative outperformance, not just absolute price gains, to curb overuse.
  • Of 33 L2 names, five KOSPI blue chips see re-flag risk drop after their mandatory 10-day lockup; near-term trades focus on timing these expiries for relief rallies and flow resets.

Primer: Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Singapore Airlines (SIA) stands as a premier global airline, capitalizing on a dual-brand strategy with its mainline premium carrier and the low-cost subsidiary, Scoot, to capture diverse market segments.
  • While passenger demand remains robust, particularly in the premium travel sector, the company faces significant headwinds from a challenged cargo market, intense regional competition, and pressure on yields.
  • The strategic expansion into India via a merger with Air India presents a significant long-term growth opportunity, though it is accompanied by near-term infrastructure and competitive challenges.

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Primer: Ashok Leyland (AL IN) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Ashok Leyland is strategically positioned to capitalize on a multi-year commercial vehicle (CV) upcycle in India, driven by an aging fleet, steady economic growth, and sustained infrastructure development.
  • The company is aggressively diversifying its revenue streams by strengthening its light commercial vehicle (LCV) portfolio, expanding its international footprint, and growing its non-vehicle businesses, which is expected to reduce earnings cyclicality.
  • A forward-looking R&D focus on future-fuel technologies, including a robust electric vehicle (EV) strategy through its subsidiary Switch Mobility and development in LNG and hydrogen, positions the company for long-term, sustainable growth in a transforming industry.

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Amaero International Ltd – Big tick from US Navy with Letter of Support

By RaaS Research Group (RaaS)

  • Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
  • The company has announced that the United States Navy has issued a Letter of Support validating Amaero’s PM-HIP (Powder Metallurgy + Hot Isostatic Pressing) manufacturing as a viable and technically-ready alternative to castings and forgings for the maritime industrial base.
  • The Letter of Support also confirms Amaero’s strong and differentiated technical capability in manufacturing near-net-shape parts.

Primer: Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPV IN) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Strategic Location with DFC Linkage: Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPV) is strategically located on the west coast of India, on a major international maritime trade route. Its connectivity to the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) is a significant catalyst, enhancing its hinterland reach and offering a competitive advantage in logistics efficiency.
  • Strong Financials and Shareholder Returns: The company demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue growth, stable margins, and an almost debt-free balance sheet. GPPV has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders, evidenced by a high dividend yield and a healthy dividend payout ratio.
  • Competitive Pressures and Capacity Constraints: GPPV operates in a highly competitive environment, facing intense rivalry from larger neighboring ports like Mundra and JNPT. While it boasts high operational efficiency, its current scale and capacity are smaller than its main competitors, which could limit market share gains.

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Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls IPO Lockup – US$800m Cornerstone Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK), raised around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
  • ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

(16 Dec 2025) Kato Works(6390 JP) — Fisco Company Research

By FISCO

Key points (machine generated)

  • Kato Works, established in 1895, specializes in construction cranes and hydraulic excavators with a focus on durability and ease of operation.
  • The company forecasts a loss for the fiscal year ending March 2026 but expects a recovery trend in the latter half of the year.
  • Kato Works offers a diverse range of products, positioning itself as a major player in the construction crane market and a mid-sized competitor in hydraulic excavators.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


Primer: Prysmian SpA (PRY IM) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • World leader in the cable industry, Prysmian is strategically positioned to capitalize on the global energy transition and digitalization trends, which are driving significant demand for its products.
  • The company’s growth strategy is focused on organic expansion, supported by a strong cash flow generation, and strategic acquisitions like Encore Wire to enhance its North American presence and product portfolio.
  • While exposed to cyclicality and raw material price volatility, Prysmian’s technological leadership, scale, and diversified business segments provide a resilient financial profile with a strong track record of growth in revenue, net income, and cash flow.

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Primer: Blackline Safety (BLN CN) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Blackline Safety is a high-growth connected safety technology company transitioning to a recurring revenue model, showing significant top-line momentum with a 32.8% three-year revenue CAGR.
  • The company is demonstrating a clear path to profitability, with substantial improvements in gross and EBITDA margins over the past three years and narrowing net losses, signaling a move towards sustainable financial performance.
  • Positioned in the rapidly expanding connected worker market, Blackline’s integrated hardware and cloud-based software platform provides a strong competitive advantage, though it faces competition from larger, more established players.

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Primer: Black Diamond Group (BDI CN) – Dec 2025

By αSK

  • Black Diamond Group is strategically positioned as a specialty rental and industrial services company, capitalizing on strong demand in modular space and workforce accommodation sectors across Canada, the U.S., and Australia.
  • The company is demonstrating a robust growth trajectory, evidenced by significant increases in revenue, profitability, and dividend payouts over the last three years, supported by both organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
  • While the company’s end markets are subject to economic and commodity price cyclicality, a diversified customer base across various sectors and a growing digital platform (LodgeLink) provide a degree of operational resilience and future growth potential.

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Daily Brief Utilities: ReNew Energy Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • Front-end UST yields declined yesterday, with the UST curve steepening in continuation of last week’s trend. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.50%, while that of the 10Y declined 1 bp to 4.17%.
  • Equities retreated for a second day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.
  • New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is well-positioned heading into 2026, as the FOMC has “adjusted interest rates down in a way that we think positions us really well to have these two competing kinds of risks be roughly in balance”. 

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