China

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.6)- Anjoy’s IPO Debut, HEC CJ Pharma’s Merger with Sunshine Lake Pharma

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.6)- Anjoy’s IPO Debut, HEC CJ Pharma’s Merger with Sunshine Lake Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

For the upcoming 11th national VBP, we think some core and big varieties could be included, involving companies such as Sunshine Lake Pharma, Huadong Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), etc.
Anjoy’s IPO is fairly priced. Reasonable valuation range is 10-15x P/E.However, unfavorable factors have led us to take a conservative attitude towards the upside potential of stock price after IPO.
For Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatization of HEC Pharma, Composite Document was despatched. However, if investors truly understand “the essence” of HEC Pharma, they will be calm/rational about this absorption merger.

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Jul 05

Daily Brief China: Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank, Lens Technology, Geekplus Technology, Lepu Biopharma, Coosea Smart Technology Company, Iron Ore, Hang Seng Index, Yuexiu Property and more

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

In today’s briefing:

Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
Lens Technology IPO Preview
Beijing Geek IPO: Not Worth It
Lens Technology IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis
Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage
Coosea Smart Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice

By David Blennerhassett

After Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK) was suspended, again, I mused in Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted an expected Offer from Jilin Province Trust.
Jilin Province has now made a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.2x P/B!), below my HK$0.80/share estimate. Apart from a Scheme-like vote, this Offer has an onerous 90% acceptance condition.
And IF the Offer fails and IF Jilin Jiutai cannot resume trading, in accordance with Rule 6.01A(2)(b) of the Listing Rules, Jilin Jiutai may be delisted.

Lens Technology IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Lens Technology is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong. Lens Technology is planning to raise as much as HK$4.77 billion (US$608 million) in this IPO.
If the offer size adjustment and overallotment options are exercised, the IPO gross proceeds could increase to HK$6.3 billion (US$803 million).
In 2024, the company held a 13% share of the global market for precision structural parts and modules for consumer electronics and a 20.9% share of smart vehicle interaction systems.

Beijing Geek IPO: Not Worth It

Chinese Autonomous Mobile Robotics player, Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) plans to raise US$300m through its HKEx IPO at a valuation of around US$2.5bn.
Top line growth has slowed down while there also has been a decline in the no. of newly acquired customers. Exports to US accounts for a significant share of revenues.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s IPO is significantly overvalued compared to global robotic players.

Lens Technology IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

Our base case valuation of Lens Technology is market cap of 146 billion CNY based on P/E of 24.9x our estimated net profit of 5.8 billion CNY in 2026.
The company’s current market cap is 120.7 billion CNY. Thus, our base case valuation represents a 21% upside from current levels.
Lens Technology is well positioned to be one of the first companies to undertake large-scale production of key components and complete device assembly for humanoid robots and AI glasses.

Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage

Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK) is placing 93.8M shares at the placing price of HK$5.02 per H Share. The net proceeds from the placing are expected to be approximately HK$463M.
The company intends to use the proceeds for conducting clinical trial, commercialization, and marketing of the core products, and to fund R&D of new products.
Lepu ended 2024 with a cash balance of RMB401M, which has been augmented by the upfront payment from recent BD deal. The company need not raise fund in near-term.

Coosea Smart Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Coosea Smart Technology Co., Ltd. (CST) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citic.
According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2024, CST was the world’s second largest end-to-end solution provider for local smartphone brands by shipment volume, and rose to first place in 1Q25.
During the Track Record Period, CST generated revenue from over 70 countries or regions, mainly focusing on Asia and Americas.

[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction

By Umang Agrawal

Reduced shipments and increased hot metal output buoyed iron ore prices. However, long-term demand faces pressure from Chinese steel stagnation and looming supply from Simandou.
Analysts foresee a balanced iron ore market in 2025, but warn that trade tensions and shifting Chinese policies could undermine demand and price stability.
Prices are trading above short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish trend.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity

By John Ley

Hong Kong single stocks traded lower in a holiday-shortened week.
Breadth pulled back sharply from the previous week’s extremes and Put activity picked up noticeably across single stock options.
Intervention in HKD continues to ramp steadily higher with HKD bumping along top of the range.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

Treasury yields jumped yesterday, led by the short-end, as a stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report drove traders to exit bets on a July rate cut.
As of yesterday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in an almost zero chance of a rate decrease in July, along with 51 bps of cuts by year-end (vs. 65 bps as of Wednesday).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 10 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 7 bps at 4.35%.

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Jul 04

Daily Brief China: Alibaba Health Information Tec, Shandong Fengxiang, Geekplus Technology, Nanjing Leads Biolabs, Anjoy Foods Group, Boxihe Outdoor Sports Group, Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, China Travel International Investment Hong Kong, EACON Group Co., Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Alibaba Health Placement – Delta Placement for EB, but Track Record Isn’t Great
Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied
Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): Valuation Insights
Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Pre-IPO: Valuation
Anjoy Foods Group A/H Trading – Cheap Price but Sluggish Demand
Boxihe Outdoor Sports Pre-IPO – Scaling Fast in China’s Outdoor Boom
Jilin Jiutai RCB (6122 HK): A Conditional VGO Puts Minorities Between a Rock and a Hard Place
China and Japan Breaking Out — Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak
China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): What’s UP?
Eacon Group Co., Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Alibaba Health Placement – Delta Placement for EB, but Track Record Isn’t Great

Banks are offering US$500m of Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK) stock in order to allow Exchangeable Bond investors to hedge their exposure.
Alibaba Health (AH) stock has been heading in the wrong direction for the past few years and it remains unclear if the EB offering was well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July.
Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.
The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer.

Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): Valuation Insights

Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.
I discussed the investment case in Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive.

Leads Biolabs (维立志生物) Pre-IPO: Valuation

Leads Biolabs, a China-based clinical-stage biotech, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The joint book runners are MS and CITIC.
In our previous insight, we looked at the company’s core products and its management team, as well as investor backing, as well as PHIP updates.
In this note we will provide an rNPV-based valuation for the company.

Anjoy Foods Group A/H Trading – Cheap Price but Sluggish Demand

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), a quick-frozen food company in China, raised around US$350m in its H-share listing.
AFG was the largest quick-frozen food company in China in terms of revenue in 2023, with a market share of 6.2%, according to the Frost & Sullivan report.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Boxihe Outdoor Sports Pre-IPO – Scaling Fast in China’s Outdoor Boom

Boxihe Outdoor Sports (BOS) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
BOS has delivered impressive growth, with a 122% revenue CAGR (FY22–24) led by its core Pelliot brand.
Its shift from a pure online DTC model to include offline and distributor channels has broadened reach, while improving gross margins reflect strong pricing and cost control.

Jilin Jiutai RCB (6122 HK): A Conditional VGO Puts Minorities Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Jilin Province at HK$0.70 per H Share, a 70.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key conditions are H Shareholder approval of the delisting proposal and a minimum acceptance condition (50% of outstanding and 90% of H shares).
Minorities are caught between a rock and a hard place, as the offer is unattractive, but the timeline for lifting the trading suspension is uncertain.

China and Japan Breaking Out — Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): What’s UP?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)‘s 1-week share price rally was driven by restructuring speculations. Yet, underlying operations have improved in 2H24.
Tourist attractions and hotel operations will stay decent in FY25, and more projects will come on stream to fuel profitability.
Asset-Based valuation should be the focus, and its 0.49x P/B is inexpensive. Net cash now equals 8.2% of the share price.

Eacon Group Co., Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Eacon Group Co., Ltd (EG) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong.
EG ranks first among all L4 autonomous driving companies globally by revenue in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan.
EG had 11 end-customer groups. Its technology has been deployed across 24 mining sites of leading mining groups like CHN Energy, SPIC, TBEA, Zijin Mining, Shougang Group, and Baowu Group.

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Jul 03

Daily Brief China: Geekplus Technology, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, BlissBio, Dow Jones Commodity Index, Hang Seng Index, Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited, Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd H, Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd., Taste Gourmet and more

In today’s briefing:

Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case
Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No
Geek+ IPO (2590.HK): Long-Term, Warehouse Automation Story, But IPO Valuation Is Not Cheap
BlissBio Pre-IPO: Selling Point Still Valid Despite BD Termination
Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025
HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook
Jiaxin International Resources Investment Pre-IPO – Tungsten Powerhouse Anchored by State Capital
Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK / 600362.SH): Turnaround Hinges on Captive Shift, Still Deep Value
Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth

Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case

Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.
Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.
The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.

Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Speculative Scrip Offer? No Thanks – Vote No

By David Blennerhassett

A little over a year ago, I wrote about Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)‘s overly complicated scrip Offer in Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid.
In summary, Yichang HEC shareholders were being offered 0.263614 “Offeror H shares”. These consideration shares are unlisted. The Offeror being Yichang HEC’s controlling shareholder (51.41%).
The Composite Doc and the Offeror’s Listing by Way Of Introduction Doc are out. The independent H-shareholder vote is the 21st July. Shareholders should vote this down.

Geek+ IPO (2590.HK): Long-Term, Warehouse Automation Story, But IPO Valuation Is Not Cheap

By Andrei Zakharov

Geek+, global technology company and provider of scalable and flexible highly efficient solutions for warehouses, aims to raise ~$300M in Hong Kong IPO.
The company is expected to IPO next week and offer price of HK$16.80 implies a market cap of HK$22B (~$2.8B). Geek+ is set to start trading on July 9, 2025.
I believe that Geek+ has a large runway for growth in the global AMR solution market, but valuation keeps me from being positive on the name.

BlissBio Pre-IPO: Selling Point Still Valid Despite BD Termination

BlissBio, a China biotech company with a focus on next-generation ADC, is seeking to raise at least USD100m via a Hong Kong listing. Sponsors are GS, Huatai, CCBI.
In this note, we look at the company’s core product BB-1701, and briefly other three key products. We think it does have a good selling point.
We also look at the company’s management and pre-IPO investors. We think the deal is worth following.

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals & Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU)
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)

HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook

By Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index has been rallying since our last BUY recommendation. However the rally may be temporarily stalling.
The index is not overbought according to our model, around 50% probability of WEEKLY reversal – it could go higher.
If the index closes this week down, it could be a buy opportunity, depending on the price reached (if the pullback is mild is probably better to hold/wait).

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Pre-IPO – Tungsten Powerhouse Anchored by State Capital

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production is scheduled to begin in 2Q25, with full ramp-up by 2027.
Falling unit costs, rising ASPs, and front-loaded CAPEX point to improving free cash flow. Belt and Road alignment enhances access to funding and policy support.

Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK / 600362.SH): Turnaround Hinges on Captive Shift, Still Deep Value

Revenue and net profit have grown steadily over the past 5 years, but margins remain structurally thin due to its tolling-heavy model.
Strategic shift underway to expand captive mining, value-added copper products, and ESG compliance—potentially lifting margins and returns through FY30.
Trading at a steep discount to Zijin (~0.6x P/B vs. 2.3x), the gap reflects real structural differences; not unjustified—but offers upside optionality under copper price normalization and higher captive integration.

Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Shanghai Sunmi Technology Co., Ltd. (SSTC) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by DB, Citic, and ABCI.
SSTC is the largest Android-based BIoT solution provider in the world in terms of revenue in 2024, with a market share of over 10%, according to CIC.
The company mainly relies on offline channels as over 99% of total revenue was generated from offline channels over the Track Record Period.

Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth

By Sameer Taneja

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues/adj profits up 19%/14% YoY for FY25, led by strong customer growth on account of new store openings.
Net cash on the balance sheet was 190 million HKD, or 27% of the market capitalization. The company declared a final dividend of 8 cents (FY: 14 cents, ~7.2% yield).
Despite the strong move following the results, the stock trades at 6.2x FY26e, assuming earnings on an adjusted basis grow by 14% YoY, mirroring their store growth.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief China: Lens Technology, Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) and more

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

In today’s briefing:

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios
Lens Technology H-Share Listing: Thoughts on Valuation
Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Valuation Insights
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) – The Dull Post-IPO Share Price and the Outlook
Fortior Tech A/H Listing – Fast but Volatile Growth and Margins

Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.

Midea Group (300 HK) – Annto Logistics Spin-Off & IPO; Valuation Scenarios

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Midea Group (300 HK) has received shareholder approval to spin off its technology-driven supply chain arm,Annto Logistics,for a separate listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Annto has demonstrated consistent profitability, with cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB 883.42 million for 2022-2024.
Size to not exceed 20% of the enlarged share capital. The objective is to expand Annto’s financing avenues, accelerate growth, & bolster operational independence within the Midea ecosystem.

Lens Technology H-Share Listing: Thoughts on Valuation

Chinese iPhone glass supplier Lens Technology (6613 HK) has announced the terms for its H-share listing, and plans to raise around US$600m through issuing 262.3m shares.
The company’s listing is priced at HK$17.38-18.18 per share, at a 25-28% discount to the last close price of the A-shares as of 27th June.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s H-share offering is priced reasonably compared to domestic and international peers.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Valuation Insights

Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount of 24.8% to 28.1% (based on the 27 June A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) – The Dull Post-IPO Share Price and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Recent positive sentiment towards A/H listings fails to drive Haitian’s post-IPO stock price performance, as the market still has doubts about whether Haitian can effectively break through the growth bottleneck.
The core contradiction of Haitian lies in the mismatch between high valuation and slow growth. Haitian’s fundamentals are difficult to support high valuation – 20-30x P/E is a reasonable range.
The intensification of geopolitical tensions has brought considerable uncertainty to the market, which has reduced investors’ risk appetite and made them more willing to avoid investment targets with potential risks.

Fortior Tech A/H Listing – Fast but Volatile Growth and Margins

Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) (688279 CH), a BLDC motor IC design company, aims to raise around US$250m in its H-share listing.
Fortior Tech is an IC design company dedicated to the design and R&D of BLDC motor control ICs.
In this note, we look at the past performance and likely A/H premium.

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Jul 01

Daily Brief China: Lens Technology , Lens Technology, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Geek+, Zijin Mining Group , Tencent Music, Midea Group, 3SBio Inc, JD.com , Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical and more

In today’s briefing:

Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent
Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India – June 2025
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round
Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion
Tencent Music (TME): Quick Note – Acquisition of Ximalaya
Midea Group(300 HK): Upcoming Spin-Off & IPO of ‘Annto’,Ongoing and Proposed Buyback, Strong Outlook
3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?
JD.com (9618 HK) Top Option Trades: Bullish Butterfly Stands Out Amond Bearish Sentiment
Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical IPO: Shine Revival Will Take a Few Sessions

Lens Technology A/H Listing – Pricing Looks Decent

Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$600m in its H-share listing.
Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case

Lens Technology (6613 HK), an industry-leading integrated one-stop precision manufacturing solution provider, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$600 million.
In terms of revenue in 2024, Lens is a global leader in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicle interaction systems.
The investment case is based on a well-performing core business, limited tariff impact, reduced reliance on Apple, strong margins, and robust cash generation.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India – June 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
Our top in China are Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) , Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)
Our top picks in Japan are Denso Corp (6902 JP),ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) and in India Auto it is Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) & Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round

By Nicholas Tan

Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to $300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Zijin Mining (601899.SS): Acquires Kazakhstan’s Raygorodok Gold Mine for USD 1.2 Billion

Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.
He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.
5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.

Tencent Music (TME): Quick Note – Acquisition of Ximalaya

By Ming Lu

TME proposed to acquire 100% shares of Ximalaya, a long audio app.
TME has been exploring the long audio market since 2020.
We believe Ximalaya has advantages in monthly active users and car radio.

Midea Group(300 HK): Upcoming Spin-Off & IPO of ‘Annto’,Ongoing and Proposed Buyback, Strong Outlook

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Annto IPO: Midea Group (300 HK)plans to spin off its subsidiary Annto Logistics via a domestic IPO to unlock value in its fast-growing logistics platform.
Share Buyback:Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) announced a RMB 5–10 billion A-share buyback in June 2025, signaling confidence and supporting shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation.
B2B Transition: Shifting from a B2C appliance maker to a tech-led B2B solution provider. With B2B contribution over 30% of revenue, it positions it for long-term, higher-margin, solution-led global growth

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Licensing Deal a Market Hit; Will It Continue?

3SBio Inc (1530 HK) signed an outlicensing deal worth more than $6B with Pfizer for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707. Since signing the deal, 3SBio shares rallied more than 55%.
Considering deals signed with Chinese companies for bispecific antibody drug candidates in recent times, 3SBio seems to have secured best valuation for its asset.
Initiation of global trial of SSGJ-707 and data readout from its ongoing China trials for additional indications, continued strong financial performance, and new approvals are upcoming catalysts.

JD.com (9618 HK) Top Option Trades: Bullish Butterfly Stands Out Amond Bearish Sentiment

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Over the past five trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Highlights: Diagonal Spreads continue to enjoy popularity. Plus, an out of the money butterfly at near zero premium demonstrates a creative application of this popular option combination.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical IPO: Shine Revival Will Take a Few Sessions

Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical launched IPO aiming to raise up to HK$232 million (US$30 million). The company plans to sell 10.8 million shares at HK$20–HK$21.4 per share.
Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical is a private dental services provider in Central China providing dental services under the direct chain model.
The IPO price is set at a premium (23%) to the price realized during Series B funding. Valuation looks attractive. But there are a few concerns to take into account.

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Jun 30

Daily Brief China: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Saint Bella, HKBN Ltd, Hang Seng Index, China Construction Bank H, Anjoy Foods Group, Xiaomi Corp, FWD Group Holdings, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, Medtide and more

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back

By Travis Lundy

AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction

China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

By Nico Rosti

A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 – July 4.
US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold

By Travis Lundy

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), already listed in Shanghai, is offering 40 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD2.6 billion (USD335 million); Offer closes today, June 30th.
HK offer is priced at a decent discount to A share price and at valuation multiples that are aligned with its peer group and business fundamentals.
With limited organic growth and little evidence of a strategic pivot to higher-value offerings, Anjoy Foods lacks a compelling long term investment case.

Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach

By John Ley

Xiaomi surged to new all-time highs following its ecosystem launch and strong YU7 pre-order momentum.
We examine option market activity to assess what’s being priced and whether sentiment is getting ahead of itself.
Two option trade structures are outlined to reflect our findings.

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.

Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update

Medtide raised HKD 514m (USD 65.5m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, June 30th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

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Jun 29

Daily Brief China: FWD Group Holdings, Hang Seng Index, Innovent Biologics Inc and more

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jun) – FWD, HDB, Santos, PointsBet, New World, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) Top Trades: Recent Option Flow Reveals Strategic Positioning
China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) – Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent’s Placement

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jun) – FWD, HDB, Santos, PointsBet, New World, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) and HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), OneConnect.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) Top Trades: Recent Option Flow Reveals Strategic Positioning

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Over the past five trading days, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Highlights: Yield-extracting strategies prove more popular in the index than in single stocks. Two such examples, a Ratio Put Spread and an Iron Condor, are presented.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) – Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent’s Placement

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.
Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry’s CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.
Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.

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Jun 28

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Iron Ore, Regencell Bioscience Holdings, Zijin Mining Group , Hang Seng Index, Anjoy Foods Group, NetEase , Unisound AI Technology and more

In today’s briefing:

Tencent/Netease: One Approval for Tencent in June
[IO Technicals 2025/26] Bearish Momentum Intensifies
Regencell Holdings (RGC US) And the New Ramp-And-Dump Schemes
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 23 – 27): Breadth Snaps Back and Option Volumes Surge
Anjoy Food Group IPO: Buy It Now Frozen, Savor, and Anjoy It Later
Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding
Unisound AI IPO (9678.HK): Pricing and Hong Kong Debut, Low Float and High Valuation

Tencent/Netease: One Approval for Tencent in June

China announced game approval for the June batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
In June, Tencent received approval for a domestic game. The company, with Netease and Kingsoft, also received approval for one imported game each.

[IO Technicals 2025/26] Bearish Momentum Intensifies

By Umang Agrawal

Iron ore prices weakened due to rising Australian and Brazilian exports and subdued Chinese demand, while the UK prepares tighter steel import restrictions.
Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have secured approvals for a $1.6bn joint initiative in Western Australia, expected to produce 31 million tonnes of iron ore annually.
Prices are still trading beneath critical moving averages, suggesting ongoing downside momentum, while the MACD below its signal line confirms the prevailing bearish trend.

Regencell Holdings (RGC US) And the New Ramp-And-Dump Schemes

By J Capital Research

The absurd valuation the market has placed on Hong Kong-based biotech Regencell Holdings (NASDAQ: RGC), which claims to be devising Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) cures for ADHD, autism, and other neurocognitive disorders, has metastasized since our April 2 newsletter.
RGC rose 12,980% (on a split-adjusted basis) from the time of our publication to the peak on June 17.
The stock has fallen a good deal from its $78 value on June 17, but, at $22.95 as of this writing, there is still much more distance for RGC to fall.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks

Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.
SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.
Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 23 – 27): Breadth Snaps Back and Option Volumes Surge

By John Ley

Breadth rebounded sharply after last week’s weakness, with most single stocks posting gains.
Single stock option volumes surged, reaching the highest levels seen since early April.
Xiaomi stood out this week across multiple contract and volume statistics.

Anjoy Food Group IPO: Buy It Now Frozen, Savor, and Anjoy It Later

Anjoy Food Group launched its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$2,639 million (US$336 million). The company plans to sell 39.9 million shares at HK$66 per share.
Anjoy is the largest quick-frozen food company in China, with a market share of 6.6% and 39 signature products, each generating revenue exceeding RMB 100 million.
Pricing pressure due to intense market competition is the concern that seems will persist in the near term. However, the company has long-term growth opportunities.

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

We discussed in last week’s June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel’s TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror. We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).

Unisound AI IPO (9678.HK): Pricing and Hong Kong Debut, Low Float and High Valuation

By Andrei Zakharov

Unisound AI Technology, Chinese AI startup with focus on intelligent voice and speech processing technologies, priced its IPO at HK$205.00 per share, top of a range.
Beijing based AI company raised ~HK$320M in this offering, of which cornerstone investors acquired ~HK$95M worth of shares or ~30% of the total offer H shares.
The claw-back was triggered due to strong retail demand. The HK offering was ~92 times oversubscribed, and the allocation was increased to 624,400 H shares.

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Jun 27

Daily Brief China: FWD Group Holdings, Anjoy Foods Group, Seazen Holdings , Viomi Technology Co Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
FWD IPO – Valuation Down but Its Difficult to Get Excited About It
FWD Group (1828 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
Anjoy Foods (2648 HK): Float Cap Restricts Global Index Inclusion
FWD IPO Valuation: Intangible Assets Is the Key (Vs. Peers)
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
VIOT: Viomi hits a few speed bumps in the road. Adjusting our valuation target to 4.00

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

By Brian Freitas

FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

FWD IPO – Valuation Down but Its Difficult to Get Excited About It

FWD Group, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise around US$442m in its HK IPO.
FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the IPO pricing.

FWD Group (1828 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights