Category

China

Daily Brief China: Soundwill Holdings, Meituan, Shandong Himile Mechanical Science & Technology, Cosco Shipping Development, Beijing Airport High Tech A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, PegBio, BYD, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Sands China and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail
  • Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q25, Main Businesses Up by 20%
  • CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case
  • PegBio IPO Trading Update
  • Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold
  • Hengrui Pharma (1276 HK): Trying to Achieve Total Global Index Inclusion
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Goldlion (533 HK)‘s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
  • Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill’s Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
  • Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 

Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q25, Main Businesses Up by 20%

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 18% YoY, with main businesses up by 20% YoY.
  • The operating margin rose by 3.6 ppt YoY by cutting every cost in 1Q25.
  • We expect EPS will grow by 37% in 2025 and the stock has an upside of 48%.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
  • The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
  • A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
  • It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH), a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1 billion.     
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (FHF HK) has been China’s leading condiments company in terms of sales volume for 28 consecutive years.
  • The investment case rests on its market positioning, return to growth, industry-leading profitability, cash generation and strong balance sheet. However, the valuation of the A Shares is full.

PegBio IPO Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio raised HKD 300.8m (USD 38m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, May 27th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s GLP-1 product and its valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut. The free float shares are mostly at the hands of retail investors.

Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below HK$100bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly HK$19bn, which is decent.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS and TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Hengrui Pharma (1276 HK): Trying to Achieve Total Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 23 May, closing the first day 25% above its offer price, resulting in a market cap of ~$47bn.
  • The security is expected to be assigned to Global-M Standard. Uncertainty for inclusion arises due to relatively low float cap even after the lock-up expiry.
  • The security is forecasted to be added to Global-F All-World in December 2025 and receive an upweight in March 2025 following the lock-up expiry.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sands China, UPL Limited
  • US treasury yields ended slightly lower in a holiday-shortened session on Friday. The decline in yields was supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks that regulators may be “very close” to easing the supplementary leverage ratio, which could support banks’ trading of treasuries.
  • That said, larger yield declines earlier in the day were pared after President Donald Trump issued new tariff threats against the EU and Apple Inc. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.99% (after dropping as much as 9 bps in the day), while the yield on the 10Y UST ended 2 bps lower at 4.51% (after declining up to 8 bps).

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Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Bestechnic Shanghai , Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Alibaba Group Holding , Guangdong Investment, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion Today & Upcoming Index Flows
  • Curator’s Cut: Korea’s Value, CATL’s Charge and Copper’s Surge
  • STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ CNI Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Stocks with Overlapping Flow
  • Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Unpacking the Week’s Savvy Top Options Trades
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility
  • ECM Weekly (26 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Eastroc, Haitian, Schloss, Aegis, Hyundai Marine, Pony
  • Guangdong Investment (270): Stable Diversifier and USD 1.3 Bn FCF
  • Pre-IPO Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion Today & Upcoming Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.
  • The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index in September.
  • The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.

Curator’s Cut: Korea’s Value, CATL’s Charge and Copper’s Surge

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we look at Korea’s compelling valuation versus AxJ equities, CATL’s blockbuster Hong Kong listing and its market implications, and explore copper’s price surge amidst Chinese demand
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next

STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ CNI Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Stocks with Overlapping Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 1 change each for the STAR Chip Index and CNI Semiconductor Chips Index, and 3 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index in June.
  • There are a few stocks that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of the STAR50 INDEX, STAR 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index and CSI A500 Index. 
  • The round-trip trade across the indices is CNY 2.9bn (US$400m) and will add to the impact across the other China indices that rebalance on the same day.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)‘s 1Q25 adjusted net profit surged 41.1%, suggesting an accelerating momentum. It should continue to outperform Trip.com Group (9961 HK)
  • Good cost management, even as revenue rose 13.2%, has enhanced adjusted EBITDA margin by 5.3pp YoY – this trend will sustain. 
  • More visa convenience will boost inbound and outbound travel. At end-1Q25, net cash equals 14% of market capitalisation, and it can still generate ROE of 12-15%. 

Alibaba (9988 HK): Unpacking the Week’s Savvy Top Options Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Popular Strategies: Over 35% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Bullish and bearish views prevail at equal rates, with very few market-neutral views expressed.
  • Top Trades: Some market participants were betting on a short term re-bound after the post-earnings drop. Others take a bearish view with finely calibrated medium-term hedges. Trade-examples are presented.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Implied Volatility Trends:Alibaba Group Holding’s (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has significantly receded to the 37th percentile after its 15 May earnings, reflecting a substantial implied vola crush.
  • Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The implied volatility term structure is now slightly upward-sloping with longer-dated options commanding a small premium. Skew dynamics indicate cheaper puts.
  • Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is greatest in the June and September expiries. Short term strikes are concentrated near or at the money.

ECM Weekly (26 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Eastroc, Haitian, Schloss, Aegis, Hyundai Marine, Pony

By Sumeet Singh


Guangdong Investment (270): Stable Diversifier and USD 1.3 Bn FCF

By Henry Soediarko

  • Guangdong Investment (270 HK) exposure in water distribution provides the much-needed stability (low volatility). While its Real Estate exposure could provide some growth.
  • With low valuation and healthy dividend yield, owning GDI during the tumultuous period will provide healthy diversification for your portfolio and a hedge during Trump’ tariff period.
  • The water sector is undervalued, mainly due to the characteristically low growth, but free cash flow is generally quite strong yet undervalued. GDI generated USD 1.3 bn Free cash flow.

Pre-IPO Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Despite returning to positive growth, Haitian still failed to achieve its 2024 revenue target, mainly due to underperformance of Soy sauce products, consumption downgrades, slow online layout/distributors recovery.
  • Haitian would face dual challenges of “cost increase + structural transformation” in the next three years due to inflation and the negative impact of  “new standard”. We shared our performance forecast.
  • High valuation is unsustainable if based on current growth rate.Reasonable valuation is about 20-30x P/E. However, due to the strong sentiment for AH listing, share price may still perform well. 

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , Soundwill Holdings, Tencent, Remegen , ZIM Integrated Shipping Services and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Is Michael Burry So Bearish on Alibaba (And Other Major Chinese Tech Stocks)?
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon
  • Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May 25) – Pfizer-3SBio’s Record-Breaking Deal, RemeGen’s HK$796Mn Placing
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Weak | No Signs of a Recovery | SHORT (May 2025)


Why Is Michael Burry So Bearish on Alibaba (And Other Major Chinese Tech Stocks)?

By Douglas Kim

  • It recently became publicly available that Michael Burry (CEO of Scion Asset Management) started buying put options on numerous Chinese stocks including Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US).
  • We highlight four major reasons why Burry may have turned bearish on Chinese tech names (tariffs, delisting threats, increasing hostile political pressure on China, and China’s 30 year bond yield). 
  • Although we do not know exactly know how Burry has changed his position in 2Q25, he is likely to have reduced put options on major Chinese tech stocks in April/May.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon

By Arun George

  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.
  • Unlike the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.
  • Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.

Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while Tencent (700 HK) approaches its twelve-months high.
  • Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.
  • Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.

China Healthcare Weekly (May 25) – Pfizer-3SBio’s Record-Breaking Deal, RemeGen’s HK$796Mn Placing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The 11th batch of national VBP rules is expected to include optimizations aimed at balancing bidding prices with drug quality
  • The US$6 billion deal between Pfizer and 3SBio has energized the innovative drug industry. While 3SBio’s valuation may continue to rise, Akeso’s valuation could face downward revisions.
  • RemeGen has shown positive momentum, with its valuation reflecting RC18’s successful out-licensing already. Its recent HK$796 million placement indicates a clear intent to raise funds at a premium.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Weak | No Signs of a Recovery | SHORT (May 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Shares of container carriers have surged on expectations of a strong recovery in volume
  • But April data show pricing continued to soften despite solid North American demand
  • The carriers themselves and other industry players remain downbeat; SHORT the carriers

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Alibaba Group Holding , Huawei Technology, Xiaomi Corp, BYD and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading
  • Alibaba Cloud Goes Global With $52 Billion Bet on AI and Infrastructure
  • Huawei Unveils HarmonyOS PCs in Challenge to Windows–MacOS Duopoly
  • Xiaomi Unveils First Self-Developed 3nm System-on-Chip Rivaling Apple’s A18 Pro
  • Xiaomi’s Own Mobile Chip Fairytale Is Back
  • BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched…
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Calendar and Diagonal Spreads make up a quarter of all strategies. Several examples are presented incorporating upfront cost, upfront credit, or zero-cost combinations. 
  • While there is a bias towards bullish strategies, 26% of all strategies express a market-neutral view in the form of Straddles, Strangles, Butterflies or Condors.

Alibaba Cloud Goes Global With $52 Billion Bet on AI and Infrastructure

By Caixin Global

  • Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on globalization with a bold new strategy and 380-billion-yuan ($52.7 billion) investment plan aimed at creating a unified global cloud network and accelerate the international rollout of its AI offerings.
  • The initiative seeks to establish Alibaba Cloud as the digital backbone for China’s next generation of global companies.
  • Speaking at the Alibaba Cloud “Go Global Summit” on Thursday, Wu Yongming, Alibaba Group CEO and Alibaba Cloud chairman, said China’s globalization is entering a new era — one led not just by product exports but by the global rise of Chinese technology, brands and advanced manufacturing.

Huawei Unveils HarmonyOS PCs in Challenge to Windows–MacOS Duopoly

By Caixin Global

  • Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. unveiled its first personal computers Monday in Chengdu, with machines powered by the company’s self-developed chips and HarmonyOS operating system in a direct challenge to the long-standing dominance of Windows-Intel (Wintel) and Apple’s macOS technology.
  • The MateBook Fold, priced from 23,999 yuan ($3,328), features an 18-inch foldable screen and a split keyboard, while the lighter MateBook Pro, starting at 7,999 yuan, follows a more conventional laptop design with a 14.2-inch display.
  • Huawei did not disclose the specific chip used in either model, but industry observers believe the devices are equipped with the company’s Kirin X90 processor built on an Arm architecture.

Xiaomi Unveils First Self-Developed 3nm System-on-Chip Rivaling Apple’s A18 Pro

By Caixin Global

  • After four years of behind-the-scenes development, Xiaomi has officially joined the top tier of smartphone chipmakers with the launch of its first in-house 3-nanometer system-on-chip (SoC), the Surge Xuanjie O1, along with its first self-developed 4G baseband chip, the Xuanjie T1.
  • The announcement came during the company’s product launch event in Beijing on Thursday, where Xiaomi also introduced its new flagship phone 15s Pro and 7Ultra tablet — both powered by the Xuanjie O1— as well as a smartwatch using the T1 chip.
  • The Xuanjie O1 is built using TSMC’s second-generation 3nm N3E process the same advanced node used in Apple’s A18 chips and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite.

Xiaomi’s Own Mobile Chip Fairytale Is Back

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Xiaomi has its own smartphone chip! It’s the 4th announcement (2014, 2017, 2021, 2025)? Yes it is. Why it didn’t succeed before, will it work out now? It won’t.
  • Mobile chip development costs US$800m-1bn, to be amortized on Xiaomi’s small volumes. The economics don’t work. It won’t give Xiaomi any performance / differentiation benefits.  
  • Why now? Computex was ongoing in Taipei with 10 big-size CEOs, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Mediatek, TSMC… maybe they felt lonely in Beijing? If you bought Xiaomi, please sell.

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched…

By Nico Rosti

  • BYD (1211 HK) has been rallying hard since its 309.80 bottom in early april, the stock closed at 465.20 last Friday, a +50% rally! Probably well deserved.
  • This insight analyzes the short-term tactical outlook on a WEEKLY time period basis. Our model finds that the stock is currently very overbought, however some upside is still possible.
  • You may want to consider hedging your bets with some puts (probably cheap at this point), 1-2 weeks expiry, to protect against a (probably mild), upcoming pullback.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp, China Hongqiao
  • Treasury yields ended lower yesterday, after recovering from a bear-steepening move earlier in the day that pushed the 30Y yield to as high as 5.15%.
  • The recovery could be driven by dip buyers, after the US Congress narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill.

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Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Soundwill Holdings, Pony AI, Alibaba Group Holding , NetEase Inc, mF International and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
  • Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?
  • [NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$136) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Game Upcycle + Margin Leverage
  • MFI: Initiating Coverage of a Differentiated Fintech Trading Platform


CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
  • Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
  • It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
  • Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

By Arun George

  • The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Trading – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, but Is Pricey

By Sumeet Singh

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) (JHP, 600276 CH ), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
  • JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$150) Earnings Review]: Has Market Underestimated T/T Stabilization?

By Ying Pan

  • Alibaba (BABA) reported C1Q25 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus. Taobao/Tmall (T/T) outperformed while Cainiao and Int’l commerce underperformed. 
  • Stabilization of domestic e-commerce is a major positive. However, on-demand e-commerce at home and video e-commerce abroad are two global growth drivers, 
  • We see new challenges emerging following business stabilization. We believe the management is up to the task. We keep BABA in our TOP BUY list and reiterate rating and TP.

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$136) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Game Upcycle + Margin Leverage

By Ying Pan

  • NetEase reported C1Q25 revenue, GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in line, 25% and 31% vs. our estimates, and in line, 29% and 30% vs. consensus. 
  • The game revenue up cycle was as we predicted, but the surprise came from AI-enhanced advertising and organizational streamlining, leading to operation margin improvements.
  • With game revenue up cycle still in full swing, we incline to keep NTES on the TOP BUY list and raise TP from US$122 to 136.

MFI: Initiating Coverage of a Differentiated Fintech Trading Platform

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • mF International Limited (NASDAQ: MFI) is a financial technology company providing foreign exchange (forex) and bullion/commodities trading platform solutions, financial/information services, and mobile applications to brokers, investment banks, institutional clients, and financial services companies primarily based in Hong Kong, mainland China, and Southeast Asia.
  • The company’s principal operating subsidiary was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.
  • mF International listed on the NASDAQ Capital Market following the company’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April 2024.

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Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology, ESR Group , Tencent, Shanghai Runda Medical Tec-A, Chery Automobile, Yadea Group Holdings, Innovent Biologics Inc, Xiamen Hithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June
  • Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season
  • Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory
  • ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer
  • Yadea Group Holdings (1585.HK):The Silent EV Titan Scaling Beyond Borders; Positive Outlook for 2025
  • Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)
  • Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play


CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas


ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$13.00 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 13 June. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
  • This is a done deal due to the substantial irrevocables. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/9.12%.

Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China’s game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Of the companies that we are monitoring, none of them got approval for domestic games but a handful approvals of imported games save their day.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period ended on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There could be 5 changes in June where passive trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 1-4x ADV in the forecast deletes.
  • A long adds/ short deletes trade has gone nowhere in the last 6-7 months, and the volatility of the trade has reduced even further in the last couple of months.

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons. 
  • As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech. 
  • We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.

Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Chery Auto, one of China’s oldest state-owned carmakers and #2 domestic passenger vehicle brand, plans to raise more than $1B in its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
  • The company has been China’s top vehicle exporter for 22 consecutive years since 2003. The automaker was founded in 1997 Mr. Yin Tongyue, Chairman & President of Chery Auto.
  • Chery Auto is an extremely ambitious company with strong overseas presence. The biggest revenue growth driver will be higher NEV sales in the coming years, in my view.

ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 4th December 2024, the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
  • There was a raft of pre-cons, however processing went like clockwork, and all were satisfied by the 15th May.  
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 13th June, and payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.

Yadea Group Holdings (1585.HK):The Silent EV Titan Scaling Beyond Borders; Positive Outlook for 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Volume Dip in 2024:Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) ‘s total unit sales fell 21% YoY amid regulatory shifts, inventory destocking, and weak market sentiment.
  • Innovation Resilience: Despite headwinds, Yadea launched sodium-ion e-bikes, reinforcing its R&D leadership and product differentiation.
  • Positive 2025 Outlook: Management guides for rebound driven by “trade-in” policy, regulatory clarity, and international expansion.

Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

By Avien Pillay

  • Strong results reflect progress of existing approved drugs including key oncology drugs.
  • Mazdutide is set to be released in 2025, and the company is currently making plans for the release.
  • Innovent Biologics continues to add to its drug development portfolio.

Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play

By Nicholas Tan

  • Xiamen Hithium (2190977D CH)  is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • It is a leading global new energy technology company providing all-round energy storage solutions centred around energy storage batteries and systems.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology, Melco International Development, Trip.com, Nationz Technologies Inc A, Baidu, JD.com Inc (ADR), ZTO Express Cayman , ATRenew , Shouhui Tech, Eastroc Beverage Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow
  • Melco (200 HK) Trading “Cheap” Into Rights Issue
  • Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%
  • CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in June
  • [Baidu (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$88) Preview]: Search Traffic’s Decline in Relevance the No.1 Issue
  • [JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause
  • ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID
  • RERE: 1Q25 Earnings
  • Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing – Energized – Fast Growth, Better Margins


CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a 6.9% premium to Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) – if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.
  • CATL (3750 HK) has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.
  • The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.

Melco (200 HK) Trading “Cheap” Into Rights Issue

By David Blennerhassett


Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

By Ming Lu

  • Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.
  • Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.
  • We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
  • We forecast 4 adds and 9 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.7% and a round-trip trade of CNY 1.2bn (US$167m).
  • Some stocks have overlaps with changes to the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index and there will be increased passive flow for those stocks.

[Baidu (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$88) Preview]: Search Traffic’s Decline in Relevance the No.1 Issue

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Baidu to report C1Q25 top line,non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income inline, (4.2%) and (8.2%) vs. the consensus, and C2Q25 top line guidance (2.7%) vs. the consensus
  • Although we expect rebounding consumption to help BIDU’s advertising business, its traffic share losses were alarming. Further, we expect some of BIDU’s core advertising categories to experience sluggish recovery;
  • We maintain our view that Baidu lacks visible growth drivers, reiterate our SELL rating, and cut its TP to US$88.

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

By Ying Pan

  • JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;
  • We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;
  • In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q125, ZTO’s rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
  • Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
  • Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further

RERE: 1Q25 Earnings

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Key 1Q25 takeaways include: 1) rising trade-in activity continues to drive growth, powerful lead indicators around ongoing government subsidies on new mobile phones, accelerating momentum with JD.com, and continued growth in AHS offline stores 2) more recent initiatives to enhance AHS Recycle’s brand, with a focus on the company’s comprehensive suite of services and competitive pricing, likely further stimulates growth in 1P business volumes and related contributions and 3) while management remains focused on reinvesting in the business to further accelerate top line growth, we look for senior officials to increasingly return excess capital to shareholders as profitability continues to scale via ongoing share repurchases and the potential for introducing a regular quarterly dividend in the not-too-distant future.

Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Shouhui’s business model does not have high barriers, with weak ability to resist risks.For investors, this is a bet on the industry’s prospects and a test of the management’s ability.
  • The “unified reporting and underwriting” policy has become the turning point in this industry. If financial performance continues to deteriorate, Shouhui may undergo business restructuring or seek M&As.
  • Due to increasing competition, decreasing commissions, disintermediation trend, tightening policy environment, we are not optimistic about the outlook of Shouhui. The valuation of Shouhui would be lower than peers.

Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing – Energized – Fast Growth, Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Daily Brief China: Seres Group , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Contemporary Amperex Technology, PegBio, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change Highly Likely
  • CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List
  • CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut
  • PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal
  • Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – It Is Hard to Capitalise on the Soaring Gold Price


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change Highly Likely

By Brian Freitas


CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) priced its H Share at HK$263 to raise HK$35,657.2 million (US$4.6 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 6.6% at the A Share price of RMB63.51. This compares to Midea Group (300 HK)‘s AH discount of 4.7%.
  • CATL had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing price is attractive.

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio, a China-based near commercial stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$39m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and valuation. We highlight issues of the company.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation is demanding, but the company managed to get support from local government facilitate its listing.

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – It Is Hard to Capitalise on the Soaring Gold Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Zhou Liu Fu’s fundamentals would not significantly improve due to the surge in gold prices, but would deteriorate instead due to rising raw material costs and reduced customer demand.
  • The franchise model and declining profit margins have always been the issues. Zhou Liu Fu also has faced dual competition from traditional jewelry companies and emerging jewelry brands.
  • We are not optimistic about Zhou Liu Fu’s performance outlook. Valuation of Zhou Liu Fu could be lower than peers and the industry average.

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Daily Brief China: BYD, Alibaba Group Holding , Cosco Shipping Development, Midea Group, China Literature, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Tencent, KE Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn
  • Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100
  • [Quiddity Index] Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for June 6 Rebal
  • Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL, Hengrui, ESR, OneConnect, Mayne, Nissin, Nippon Road, TechnoPro
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong
  • CATL (3750 HK): Fast-Entry to Global Indices Unlikely Despite $150B Market Cap
  • KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%
  • ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM


HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

By Brian Freitas


Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.
  • The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.
  • The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
  • I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

By Brian Freitas


[Quiddity Index] Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for June 6 Rebal

By Travis Lundy

  • In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
  • The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet & Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
  • By Quiddity calculations based on the 16 May close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$34,556,596,089.99 (approximately), to trade on 6 June. 

Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL, Hengrui, ESR, OneConnect, Mayne, Nissin, Nippon Road, TechnoPro

By Arun George


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

CATL (3750 HK): Fast-Entry to Global Indices Unlikely Despite $150B Market Cap

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • CATL (3750 HK) is forecasted to fail the fast-entry float cap threshold of both global indices due to unlisted shares, locked cornerstone investors and domestic offering.
  • Stock price needs to rise by ~30% on the first trading day to achieve fast-entry to one global index. Offer price is 263HKD and the adjustment option has been exercised.
  • The security is expected to be added to Global Standard in August 2025 and to Global All-World in December 2025, with an elevated free float following the 6-month cornerstone lock-up.

KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.
  • New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.
  • We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.

ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

By Sumeet Singh


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Daily Brief China: Guming Holdings, NetEase , ESR Group , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance: Bloks (325 HK), Guming (1364 HK) & MIXUE (2097 HK) Added
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Webjet, Nippon Road, Nissin Corp, Sumi Mitsui Construction, ESR, Oneconnect
  • China Healthcare Weekly (May.18) – Trump to Lower US Drug Prices, Thoughts on Hengrui’s IPO Pricing


HSCI Index Rebalance: Bloks (325 HK), Guming (1364 HK) & MIXUE (2097 HK) Added

By Brian Freitas


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

By Brian Freitas



China Healthcare Weekly (May.18) – Trump to Lower US Drug Prices, Thoughts on Hengrui’s IPO Pricing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Trump signed an executive order aimed at lowering prescription drug prices in the US, but the specific implementation may encounter obstacles. This is good news for China’s innovative drug assets. 
  • Under tariff/trade war, as long as the US does not issue any bill proposing to suspend the technology exchange, licensing-out business model of China biotech will not be substantially affected.
  • Hengrui’s IPO in Hong Kong is not attractive from a fundamental perspective. However, the recent strong performance of Hengrui’s A-share has lifted investors’ sentiment, making them “interested” in this IPO.

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