Category

China

Daily Brief China: JD.com Inc (ADR), Goldman Sachs Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025

By Ying Pan

  • We expect JD.com C4Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI to be RMB337bn/9.7bn, 1.6%/6.5% above consensus, benefiting from trade-in subsidies and logistics;
  • With 2025 having four quarters of trade-in subsidy vs. 2024’s one quarter and smartphone’s participation, JD.com is on solid growth footing in our universe. 
  • We raised JD.com’s TP from US$50 to US$ 52 TP and maintain BUY rating.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Goldman Sachs’ GCI enters partnership with Asia Pacific Land in Japan for data center venture, expanding its reach in Asia.
  • CPPIB and MGRV collaborate on $350M venture in Korean rental housing, aiming to capture opportunities in the real estate market.
  • S&P forecasts rebound in China’s property market, driven by increase in secondary sales, indicating positive growth.

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Daily Brief China: Suzhou Kematek, Guming Holdings, Get Nice Financial Group Ltd, UBS Group , DPC Dash, Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, Dingdong Maicai, China Water Affairs and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade
  • Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Aus revamps student housing vehicle for $3.8B fund
  • Dpc Dash (1405 HK) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024
  • Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far
  • Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
  • In Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to competition and a sizeable pre-IPO dividend.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote

By Arun George

  • The Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) offer is conditional on the approval of the GNH/GNF shareholders. On 22 January, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) shareholders approved the offer. 
  • The GNF vote requires approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote remains a low risk.   
  • The GNF vote is aided by the higher derating of peers (the median peer’s share price has declined 12.7%) compared to the decline in the implied offer value (10.4%).  

Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Aus revamps student housing vehicle for $3.8B fund

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Scape Australia is investing in student housing by launching a $3.8 billion fund to transform the sector.
  • Indian company CtrlS is expanding their data center portfolio by building a fourth facility in Hyderabad.
  • Despite a Q4 slump, Singapore’s real estate investment increased by 35% in 2024, according to Savills.

Dpc Dash (1405 HK) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • DPC Dash is the master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in China, currently operating 768 stores
  • Despite current lack of profitability, DPC Dash has potential to become second largest player in Chinese pizza market in four years
  • Strong leadership team and focus on value for consumers position DPC Dash to capitalize on low number of pizza stores per population in China compared to other key markets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million. 
  • In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
  • The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing. 

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Author recommends investing in DingDong Limited (DDL) to play a recovery in China
  • DDL has shown promise with consecutive quarters of operating profits despite China’s economic issues
  • Investment thesis is based on potential for DDL’s stock to rise for every 1% increase in operating margins, without assuming further margin expansion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness (H&H), Anton Oilfield, Lippo Karawaci
  • In the US, the December Conference Board leading index inched down by 0.1% (-0.1% e / 0.4% revised p) in December to 101.6. The decrease was due to “low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment and a decline in building permits”, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.
  • US President Donald Trump is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods as soon as February 1st, apparently due to fentanyl being trafficked into the US via Mexico and Canada, using chemicals from China.

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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Tencent and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
  • GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
  • Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
  • Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook


Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

By Arun George


GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

By David Blennerhassett


Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

By David Blennerhassett

  • The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
  • It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
  • In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game. 

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
  • Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
  • Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

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Daily Brief China: Mixue Group, Guming Holdings, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust, Fu Shou Yuan, SITC International, New World Development and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors
  • Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Jan-2025): Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar for $400M.
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted
  • Guming (Good Me) IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Stock Exchange of Hong Kong issued a consultation paper titled Proposals to Optimise IPO Price Discovery and Open Market Requirements with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
  • In this note, we summarize key points for ECM investors and analyze the impact from a historical perspective the impact for ECM investors.
  • We are of the view that overall the changes will benefit ECM investors by reallocating a portion of the profits from cornerstone investors.

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports. 
  • Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.
  • The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet. 

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Jan-2025): Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar for $400M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar Hotel for $400M in a strategic move to shift focus and secure a profitable deal.
  • CapitaLand shifts Tan to commercial REIT and hires Yong to lead Malaysia Trust, showing active leadership changes within the company.
  • CapitaLand India Trust initiates $54M Hyderabad IT Park revamp, signaling a significant investment in the Indian real estate market.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fu Shou Yuan’s performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.
  • If Fu Shou Yuan’s dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don’t think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.
  • Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.

Guming (Good Me) IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK), a leading player in China’s freshly-made branded beverage sector, is widely expected to launch its IPO soon.
  • Guming’s Good Me brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of store count as well as GMV.
  • Guming reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings, although same-store sales declined due to rising competition and weak consumer spending.

SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • SITC International (1308 HK)‘s positive profit alert beat the FY24 forecast by 12%. It also suggests an acceleration in growth to 1.9-2.1x in 2H24, from +13% in 1H24. 
  • The muted share price performance reflects concerns about an influx of capacity, intra-Asia demand outlook, and freight rate prospects. We refute such worries.
  • It stands on an attractive dividend yield of 11.1% for FY24. Even under conservative earnings forecasts, its 8.1% and 6.6% yields for FY25 and FY26 are appealing.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, China Vanke, Vedanta Resources
  • The US market was closed for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday yesterday.
  • In China, the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (quoted by commercial banks) have been maintained at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.

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Daily Brief China: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hang Seng Index, China Vanke and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
  • CATL A/H Listing – Early Look – US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The sharp performance decline of China TCM in 2024 is actually in line with our expectation. The current valuation has not yet reached its lowest point. 
  • China TCM can still achieve an average annual profit of RMB1 billion in the future. Together with the new management, we expect the Company to come out of the trough.
  • Instead of betting on privatization again, it’s better to focus more on whether China TCM’s fundamentals would improve, which is the key factor that can support a sustainable valuation rebound.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.

By John Ley

  • Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
  • Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels. 
  • Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.

CATL A/H Listing – Early Look – US$5bn Could Be Hong Kong’s Largest This Year

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

By John Ley

  • Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.
  • Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  
  • Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy
  • In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.
  • Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.

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Daily Brief China: ZTO Express Cayman , J&T Global Express , Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Lonking Holdings, WuXi AppTec, JD.com Inc (ADR), Guming Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
  • J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up
  • Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ
  • Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) – Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings
  • Lonking (3339 HK): A (Massive) Positive Profit Alert
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19)- WuXi AppTec Sells Shares in WuXi XDC, National Biological Drug VBP
  • JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection
  • Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
  • ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
  • The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

By Brian Freitas


Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

By Arun George



Lonking (3339 HK): A (Massive) Positive Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)‘s positive profit alert suggested that FY24 earnings will beat the market consensus by a significant 25.8-34.6%. 
  • Better profitability indicates that it will further accumulate net cash. At an unchanged 50% payout ratio, it yields 7.8%, but at a higher payout of 70%, it will be 10.9%.
  • Trading on 0.59x P/B, it is at the historical average valuation. If 1SD above average, there will be a 20% upside. It will go to HK$2.20 if 2SD above.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.19)- WuXi AppTec Sells Shares in WuXi XDC, National Biological Drug VBP

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Anhui Province will lead the first National biological drugs VBP in 2025. However, we are optimistic because we think the whole industry will start to bottom out from here.
  • EVER001 has the potential to become “a game changer” for membranous nephropathy treatment. We are waiting for Everest Medicines to reach licensing cooperation based on EVER001 in the future.
  • The real motivation for the Disposals of WuXi XDC shares could be to boost WuXi AppTec’s stock price first so that the management can again reduce positions at high level.

JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection

By Michael Fritzell

  • China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.

  • At the top of the list was online retailer JD.com (JD US — US$57 billion) with a total dividend yield and buyback yield of 10% — even after deducting share-based compensation. That’s impressively high.

  • JD is one of China’s largest e-commerce companies. It dominates the niche of selling authentic, branded goods online with fast and reliable delivery.

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
  • Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
  • Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.

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Daily Brief China: Flat Glass, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Eng Corp, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, ZTO Express Cayman and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Further, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun 25: 1-5x ADV to Trade; Sector-Neutral Rebal Trade Idea Inside
  • GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar 25: LONGs Up ~12% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker: Fight For Parcel Volume Share Heated Up in Q424 (January 2025)


A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Further, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
  • The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
  • The VERY WIDE Tech spreads bifurcated. SMIC (981) and Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385) both continued strongly. China Rail Signal (3969) and Flat Glass (6865) widened again.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

By David Blennerhassett


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
  • The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
  • No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun 25: 1-5x ADV to Trade; Sector-Neutral Rebal Trade Idea Inside

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect up to four ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

By Arun George

  • Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  
  • The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
  • Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Mar 25: LONGs Up ~12% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the March 2025 index rebal event.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker: Fight For Parcel Volume Share Heated Up in Q424 (January 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q424, there were dramatic shifts in share among the six listed Chinese express companies
  • STO and J&T gained the most volume share, while volume leader ZTO gave up the most
  • STO won share without ceding much price; ZTO still has not settled on a new strategy

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Daily Brief China: China Vanke , Indosat Tbk PT and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (17-Jan-2025): ESR & CloudHQ JV for $2B Osaka Data Centre Campus


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).
  • Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.
  • The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). 

Asia Real Estate Tracker (17-Jan-2025): ESR & CloudHQ JV for $2B Osaka Data Centre Campus

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • ESR partners with CloudHQ for $2B Osaka data centre, aiming to enhance digital infrastructure in the region.
  • Macquarie Asset Management plans to invest $5B in a crypto firm turned data centre startup, highlighting growing interest in the industry.
  • US hyperscaler enters Malaysian market, establishing a 220MW campus in Johor to meet increasing demand for data services in the region.

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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Shanghai Electric Group Company, Ruijie Networks , Lifestyle China, Legend Biotech Corp, Chongqing Terminus, Ho Bee Land Ltd, Fu Shou Yuan, Trip.com and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
  • Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?
  • Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal
  • [Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Preview]: C4Q24: Thailand Kidnapping Strengthens Domestic


Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

By David Blennerhassett

  • You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
  • Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
  • IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
  • The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final. 
  • The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a revised offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.98 per share, a 7.3% premium to the previous HK$0.913 offer. The offer has been declared final. 
  • The bump was unsurprising. Crucially, the shares have traded above the revised offer on 20 of the 25 trading days since the previous offer was announced. 
  • The revised offer remains light, and minorities remain unimpressed. The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk. Head for the exit as the shares are trading at terms. 

Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?

By Baptista Research

  • Legend Biotech has been making headlines with its breakthrough CAR-T therapy, CARVYKTI, which has revolutionized the treatment of multiple myeloma.
  • This pioneering therapy, co commercialized with Johnson & Johnson, has achieved record-setting launches and boasts a significant survival benefit over standard treatments.
  • The company’s robust clinical pipeline, recent partnerships, and aggressive manufacturing expansions signal strong growth potential.

Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It operates in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Scape, a living platform, receives a significant investment of $434 million from Korea’s NPS, boosting its growth and expansion.
  • Ho Bee Land makes a competitive bid of $242 million for an Australian builder, directly challenging Proprium Capital in the real estate market.
  • Korea’s NPS joins forces with Almanac Realty in a $800 million real estate joint venture, solidifying their presence in the industry.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)‘s share price rebound over the last two days may have well-reflected the special dividend proposal. It has, however, opened up the room for disappointment. 
  • Assuming the same special DPS as last time, it is sitting on a 9% yield. The dividend sustainability is uncertain, and without this, it will be only 4.7% for FY25.
  • Earnings have been cut by 32.5% over the last six months on consumption downgrade. This near-term headwind will overshadow its long-term story.  

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Preview]: C4Q24: Thailand Kidnapping Strengthens Domestic

By Eric Wen

  • We expect TCOM to report C4Q24 revenue 1.8% lower than consensus, mainly due to lukewarm outbound travel. But we see domestic and inbound remained robust heading into CNY. 
  • Given strong data flow heading into CNY, we continue to be positive on domestic travel while outbound suffering a further setback…
  • We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.

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Daily Brief China: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , First REIT, Orient Overseas International, Geek+, Health And Happiness (H&H), SunCar Technology Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Jan-2025): Santarli, Apex $368M top bid for West Singapore site
  • Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?
  • Geek+ IPO Preview: Extending Leadership in Warehouse Automation Sector, New Robotic IPO in Hong Kong
  • Health And Happiness – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance
  • SDA: SunCar expands business with multiple new partnerships and collaborations. The company also appoints a new Chief Strategy Officer. We maintain our price target of 20.00.


Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

By Arun George

  • Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
  • In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. 
  • Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization.
  • Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
  • There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Jan-2025): Santarli, Apex $368M top bid for West Singapore site

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Santarli and Apex make joint bid worth $368M for a site in Western Singapore, expanding their real estate portfolio.
  • CVC-backed chain competes for First REIT’s Indonesian assets valued at $599M, increasing their presence in the market.
  • EdgeConneX ventures into Japan with a 140MW data center project in Greater Osaka, showcasing their global growth strategy.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
  • Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
  • The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.

Geek+ IPO Preview: Extending Leadership in Warehouse Automation Sector, New Robotic IPO in Hong Kong

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Geek+, a Beijing-based autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) unicorn with focus on smart logistics, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
  • The AI & robotics company was backed by Warburg Pincus, GGV Capital, D1 Capital Partners, Intel Capital, Vertex Ventures, and Gaorong Capital, among others.
  • Beijing Geekplus IPO comes after another robotics unicorn, a leading manufacturer of collaborative robots Shenzhen Dobot, raised ~HK$681M in its HK IPO in December.

Health And Happiness – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Health and Happiness’ (H&H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment pressure in FY 2026.
  • In our view, the high tender offer price of 109.8 is to incentivise bondholders to tender and subscribe to the new notes.
  • We see fair value for the proposed notes at c. 8%.

SDA: SunCar expands business with multiple new partnerships and collaborations. The company also appoints a new Chief Strategy Officer. We maintain our price target of 20.00.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SunCar Technology Group ((NASDAQ: SDA) is a leading Chinese cloud-based provider of digital enterprise auto services and auto eInsurance services in China.
  • The company offers one-stop, fully digital, on-demand automotive service systems to help enterprise clients build up their customer base and serve their end customers (auto owners).
  • The company has grown revenues rapidly in recent years, which we expect to continue in the near-to-midterm.

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Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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