Consumer

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (Honda) recently conducted a financial review of its performance for the fiscal year ending March 2025, along with projections for 2026.
Several key factors from its operations and outlook are noteworthy for investors, highlighting both strengths and challenges.
Honda’s motorcycle segment saw robust performance, reporting record highs in unit sales, operating profit, and margins.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Consumer: Oriental Watch, Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts, D’Alba Global, PointsBet Holdings , Septeni Holdings, Orkla India Ltd., Capri Holdings , Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd, Life Time Group Holdings, Thule Group Ab and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Resilient Despite Tough HK Environment, Dividend A Slight Disappointment
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$600mn Collective One-Way Flows
D’Alba Global: Financial Investors Could Unload 19% of Shares Once Lockup Ends on 22 June
PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer
Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings
Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Capri Holdings: An Insight Into Its Strategic Wholesale and Digital Expansion & Other Major Drivers
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Life Time Group Holdings: A Close Look At Its Pricing & Retention Strategy & Other Growth Catalysts!
Thule AB: Can the Quad Lock Acquisition Turbocharge Profit Margins Long-Term?

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Resilient Despite Tough HK Environment, Dividend A Slight Disappointment

By Sameer Taneja

Oriental Watch (398 HK) delivered a resilient result with revenue/profits -5%/-20% YoY (ex-one offs -11.5% YoY), despite weakness in HK (22% of sales), where the company is now making losses.
Cash & Investments dipped to 901 mn HKD, representing about 54% of the market capitalization. The company declared a 16.7 HKD cent/dividend (FY25: 41.3 HKD/cent yield 12%).
We believe that FY26 will be a year of consolidation, and with a weak HK, profits will remain subdued. Stock trades at 8.4x FY25 with a 12% dividend yield.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$600mn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 3 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

D’Alba Global: Financial Investors Could Unload 19% of Shares Once Lockup Ends on 22 June

D’Alba Global has been one of the best performing IPOs in Korea this year. Its share price has risen to 172,5000 won, an increase of 160% from it IPO price.
A total of 19% of outstanding shares of D’Alba Global could start to be sold starting 22 June. That is a lot of shares!
These are likely to put negative pressure on the shares of D’Alba Global. Therefore, we change our view on this company to Negative over the next 6-12 months.

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has switched its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer to an all-scrip takeover offer at 3.81 BBT shares per PBH share, with a post-offer buyback option at A$1.22.
Betr’s claim that its offer is superior is debatable. Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s offer is 8.6% above Betr’s at last close prices, and minorities accepting the buyback will be prorated.
Betr’s offer is designed to torpedo Mixi’s scheme and takeover offer. Mixi will need to rethink its terms and likely drop its 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.

Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings

Septeni Holdings is one of the leaders in Japan in the digital marketing business which mainly includes digital advertising, marketing support, data & AI-driven solutions.
The company has also aggressively raised dividend payouts which is a clear sign of improving corporate governance.
The company is also well positioned to deliver sales growth rate of about 5-7% per year in the next 2-3 years with 20%+ per year growth in operating profit.

Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Orkla India Ltd. (OI) is looking to raise about US$300mn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, Citi, JPM, and Kotak.
It’s a multi-category Indian food company offering a diverse range of products that cater to every meal occasion, from breakfast and lunch to dinner, snacks and beverages and desserts.
OI was one of the top four companies in terms of revenue from operations among select leading species and convenience foods peers in FY24, as per Technopak Report.

Capri Holdings: An Insight Into Its Strategic Wholesale and Digital Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Capri Holdings Limited’s recent earnings reflect a mix of strategic changes and financial outcomes that should be carefully considered by investors.
The company is in a transitional phase, highlighted by the announcement of the pending sale of Versace to Prada Group.
The decision to divest Versace aims to refocus resources on the Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo brands, with potential benefits of debt reduction and reinstatement of a share repurchase program.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN) (LJML) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are AnandRathi and Equirius.
LJML is a jewellery retailer operating under the brand name “Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
As per the CRISIL Report, the company recorded the highest operating revenue per store among key organised jewellery players in India during FY22-9M25.

Life Time Group Holdings: A Close Look At Its Pricing & Retention Strategy & Other Growth Catalysts!

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. reported robust financial performance for the first quarter of 2025.
The company achieved total revenue of $706 million, marking an 18.3% increase year-over-year.
This growth was attributed primarily to a 17.9% increase in membership dues and enrollment fees, alongside an 18.7% rise in in-center revenue.

Thule AB: Can the Quad Lock Acquisition Turbocharge Profit Margins Long-Term?

Thule Group AB presented a mixed performance in their recent quarterly earnings report.
The company registered a 10% increase in total sales from the previous year, but faced notable hurdles in North America, where sales declined by 13%.
In contrast, sales in Europe showed stability with marginal growth.

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Jun 20

Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart International Group L, Kimly Ltd, Dongfeng Motor, Tripadvisor Inc, WD-40 Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price
Kimly: Stable Consumer Business, with Negative Working Capital and 6.1% Yield
Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future?
TripAdvisor: Enhancing User Experience Through Smart Tech & Personalization But Is It Enough?
How WD-40 Company Is Winning in Emerging Markets with Hybrid Models & Smart Straw Innovation!

Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price

By Ming Lu

We believe Pop Mart’s advantage is its ability of choosing available IPs.
We expect Pop Mart’s revenue will grow by 69% in 2025.
However, the stock is overvalued by cross-sectional comparison and fairly valued by time-series comparison.

Kimly: Stable Consumer Business, with Negative Working Capital and 6.1% Yield

By Punit Khanna

Kimly is a traditional coffee shop, food court and industrial canteen operator in Singapore
The business is stable ( revenue & ROE) & the company enjoys high occupancy rate
Profitability is facing challenge due to rising operational costs and increasing competition

Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future?

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Abandoned Restructuring: Recently Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) confirmed that there is no restructuring activity involving its controlling shareholder.This raises hope that it is looking to turnaround its operations by itself.
New Energy Vehicle (NEV) transformation gaining momentum: NEV sales grew 34.4% YTD May 2025; Dongfeng leads with proprietary EV platforms, smart tech integration, and Huawei-backed high-end launches.
Trades at just 0.32x P/B, Cash at USD 14bn is much higher than market cap of USD 4bn. significantly undervalued versus peers, despite strong cash reserves,rising exports, and NEV scaling.

TripAdvisor: Enhancing User Experience Through Smart Tech & Personalization But Is It Enough?

TripAdvisor, a prominent player in the online travel space, recently held a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2025 financial results.
The company showcased both triumphs and challenges in navigating the evolving landscape of travel and experiences.
On the positive side, TripAdvisor reported consolidated revenue of $398 million, marking a 1% increase or approximately 3% growth in constant currency.

How WD-40 Company Is Winning in Emerging Markets with Hybrid Models & Smart Straw Innovation!

WD-40 Company reported its second-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, highlighting a mix of positive growth in sales and ongoing challenges related to foreign currency exchange rates and other macroeconomic factors.
The company recorded net sales of $146.1 million, marking a 5% increase from the previous year.
Adjusting for currency translations, this translates to a 9% increase.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Consumer: Kolmar Korea Holdings , Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Kilcoy Global Foods, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd., CaoCao, Under Armour, Guess? Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Kolmar Group Chairman Yoon: A Rare Case Of “I Want My Shares Back”
Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either
Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Trading – Very Strong Demand, Weak Price Momentum
Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Trading Debut
Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): China Based Protein Provider Readying for July IPO
Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Not Blindingly Cheap but Peer Momentum Is Strong
CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
Under Armour Working On A Bold Restructuring Move; Will It Result In A Retail Rebound?
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea
Guess? Inc.: Will The Rag & Bone Acquisition Be A Game Changer In The Dynamic Fashion Industry Landscape!

Kolmar Group Chairman Yoon: A Rare Case Of “I Want My Shares Back”

Chairman Yoon Dong-han, founder of the Kolmar Group, has filed a lawsuit against his eldest son, Vice Chairman Yoon Sang-hyun of Kolmar Holdings, demanding the return of Kolmar Holdings shares.
This is a rare case of a chairman demanding his shares back from his son.
A key question is can there be an M&A fight for Kolmar Holdings even without the father getting his shares back? And the answer would be yes.

Eternal Beauty IPO – Not Expensive but Its Not Enticing Either

Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited is looking to raise around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about valuations.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Trading – Very Strong Demand, Weak Price Momentum

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn (including over-allocation) in its H-share listing.
FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Trading Debut

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) priced its H Share at HK$36.30 to raise HK$10,128.9 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
Haitian had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): China Based Protein Provider Readying for July IPO

By IPO Boutique

They provide tasty, fresh, natural, healthy and convenient food products to customers across over 40 countries worldwide.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, they recorded a total revenue of US$2,195.0 million, increasing by 17.3% from US$1,870.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
The area in which this company operates in is one that is not traditionally attractive to IPO investors as the margins are low and the competition is high.

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Not Blindingly Cheap but Peer Momentum Is Strong

By Nicholas Tan

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH) is looking to raise up to $143m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.
CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CaoCao (2643 HK) ‘s IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.

Under Armour Working On A Bold Restructuring Move; Will It Result In A Retail Rebound?

Under Armour’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report reveals a complex narrative, reflecting both strides in strategic realignment and significant challenges in market execution and financial performance.
On the positive side, Under Armour demonstrated notable progress in several areas, including gross margin improvement, strategic streamlining, and brand repositioning efforts.
The company increased its gross margin by 170 basis points to 46.7%, driven by reductions in product and freight costs, a decrease in promotional activities, and strategic pricing benefits.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery Co., Ltd. (6168 HK)‘s IPO does not appeal to us, given deteriorating profitability, smaller size, and inferior financials.
Its IPO price of HK$24.0 appears to be fair relative to the peers’ valuation, leaving limited upside and downside in the secondary market.
We value the stock at HK$22.5-25.7, based on 20-30% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK). It is not another Laopu Gold (6181 HK).

Guess? Inc.: Will The Rag & Bone Acquisition Be A Game Changer In The Dynamic Fashion Industry Landscape!

Guess?, Inc. recently reported its first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, revealing a performance that surpassed initial expectations primarily driven by strategic financial management and beneficial acquisitions.
The company’s revenue grew by 9% in U.S. dollars and 12% in constant currency, largely fueled by the acquisition of rag & bone, which added substantial growth to the topline.
Apart from this, core growth from Guess’s wholesale operations in Europe and the Americas also contributed positively.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Consumer: Vishal Mega Mart, BYD, CaoCao, Melco International Development, Chagee Holdings, Shiseido Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain
Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued
BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance
CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights
StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Needs To Fall
Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall – Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda
Shiseido (4911) | Beauty in the Bargain Bin
Foshan Haitian: Upsized at Top Price. Near Term Upside, Long Term Value Play.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain

By Ming Lu

BYD announced that the company would provide price discounts for 22 models.
BYD has scale advantage over other NEV car makers and the NEV industry has bargaining power over suppliers and dealers.
The auto association and the Ministry of Industry are trying to protect small companies from bankruptcy.

Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued

By Nicholas Tan

CaoCao (2643 HK) is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance

By Nico Rosti

As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.

CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights

CaoCao (2643 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.
I previously discussed the IPO in CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case and CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Needs To Fall

Melco International Development (200 HK)‘s fully-paid rights shares commence trading today. Melco is down just ~14% since announcing a one-for-two rights issue; and 13% above the TERP.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall – Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We recently visited Guangzhou city, a tier one city in China, on a vacation trip.
One of the malls that we visited happened to have several listed tea chain stores.
We took a snapshot of the shop traffic and noted the difference in locations of various stores. We also ordered tea drinks from two of these stores.

Shiseido (4911) | Beauty in the Bargain Bin

By Mark Chadwick

Shiseido’s core brand remains strong, but years of weak growth, high costs, and tariff risks have pushed valuations to deeply discounted, near-decade lows.
Early signs from Japan show margin recovery is possible; aggressive cost-cutting could double core operating margins and unlock significant upside if execution holds.
If management fails to deliver, Shiseido’s global brand equity, strategic footprint, and low valuation make it an obvious acquisition target for PE or industry buyers.

Foshan Haitian: Upsized at Top Price. Near Term Upside, Long Term Value Play.

By Devi Subhakesan

Foshan Haitian has priced its Hong Kong offer at the top end (HKD36.3/share) and upsized it to 279 million shares, raising a strong HKD10.1 billion (USD1.3 billion).
With a massive 696x oversubscription and nearly half the deal secured by cornerstone investors, the stock could see a lively debut when it lists on June 19th.
We believe Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) lacks a clear catalyst for growth and hence the growth expectations built into its Hong Kong pricing may prove difficult to materialise.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

On 17 June, Bloomberg reported that Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company has raised HK$10.1 billion after a strong remand for its shares to be listed in Hong Kong.
We estimate the company to generate revenue of 29.4 billion RMB (up 9.2% YoY) and net profit of 6.8 billion RMB (up 7.1% YoY) in 2025.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Foshan Haitian is undervalued. Our base case valuation suggests implied market cap of 286 billion CNY, which represents 25% higher than current levels.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Consumer: Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Dongwon Industries, PointsBet Holdings , Yamada Denki, Market Vectors Vietnam ETF, Hennes & Mauritz AB, Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$12.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview
Three Key Angles when Hunting Div Arb Setups in the Korean Market
PointsBet (PBH AU) [Further] Backs MIXI’s Offer, Rejects Betr’s
When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)
Foshan Haitian HK Offer: Pantry Staples at Pricey Valuations. Key Facts, Financials & More
Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam
H&M (Hennes & Mauritz AB): Initiation of Coverage- The High-Stakes Bet on Value
Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Outlook Has Changed
Many Companies Are in Stage of Setting Caps to Ensure that Cash on Hand Grows No More than Necessary

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$12.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping

By Brian Freitas

There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$12.7bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US).
The largest flows are expected in Meta, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Broadcom, Live Nation Entertainment, Tesla, T Mobile Us, Exxon Mobil, Fox, Omnicom Group, TKO Group Holdings and Netflix.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company is the largest listed condiments producer in mainland China which is seeking to raise up to HK$9.56 billion (US$1.22 billion) in Hong Kong listing.
It is offering 263.2 million shares at HK$35 to HK$36.30 each. The final offer price is expected to be announced on 17 June.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food is the largest condiments company in China with strong brand power with loyal customers.

Three Key Angles when Hunting Div Arb Setups in the Korean Market

By Sanghyun Park

Is the SSF base price automatically adjusted on ex-div day? No — Korea doesn’t mechanically adjust cash or futures base prices on ex-div, keeping dividend arb opportunities alive.
Could front-month futures flip into contango near ex-div? It’s rare but possible, especially with KRX’s aggressive SSF reshuffles and KOSDAQ Global additions shaking up liquidity and basis volatility.
Arb plays may arise from Korea’s new 27.5% div tax on payouts over 35%. Ex-div timing and payout uncertainty may create opportunities for dividend arb setups.

PointsBet (PBH AU) [Further] Backs MIXI’s Offer, Rejects Betr’s

On the 3rd June, MIXI bumped Scheme terms to A$1.20/share; and should the Scheme fail, MIXI was “willing to consider” an off-market takeover at A$1.20/share with a 50.1% acceptance hurdle.
PointsBet (PBH AU) has now entered a bid implementation deed with MIXI on the off-market Offer, conditional on the Scheme failing; which it will given BETR (BBT AU)‘s 19.9% stake.
And on Betr? PBH has rejected its Offer, questioning the computation of the synergies, and calling the bid materially below MIXI’s.

When Giants Clash: Yamada (9831) Vs. Nitori (9843)

By Michael Allen

Yamada, Japan’s leading home appliance retailer, trade at a PER of less than 9x. Nitori, the leading furniture retailer trades at about 17x.
Both companies, having saturated their core market, are diversifying into the other’s territory.
Key Takeaway: Nitori is diversifying into a business with inherently lower margins, while Yamada moves into one with inherently higher margins.

Foshan Haitian HK Offer: Pantry Staples at Pricey Valuations. Key Facts, Financials & More

By Devi Subhakesan

Foshan Haitian, already listed in Shanghai, is offering 263.2 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD9.56 billion (USD1.22 billion); Final offer price will be set by today.
HK offer price is pitched at an appealing 19%–22% discount to its A-share close, however valuations are pricing in growth expectations that may not align with the underlying business dynamics.
Foshan Haitian operates in the condiments and sauces segment—a mature, saturated and competitive market with limited room for meaningful margin or volume expansion.

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

By Pranav Bhavsar

In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.
Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.
Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.

H&M (Hennes & Mauritz AB): Initiation of Coverage- The High-Stakes Bet on Value

Hennes & Mauritz AB (H&M Group) presented its first quarter results for 2025, reflecting a mixed performance amid efforts to strategize for long-term profitable growth.
Sales in Swedish krona grew by 3%, while local currency sales increased by 2%.
The company experienced strong sales performance in regions like Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe, particularly in Germany and Poland, but sales were weaker in Northern Europe, including the Nordics and the U.K., as well as in the U.S. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Outlook Has Changed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and “get involved directly” in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future
Although there’re “reusable aspects” in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from “scale effect”.So, low profit margin is the norm.
Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty’s net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.

Many Companies Are in Stage of Setting Caps to Ensure that Cash on Hand Grows No More than Necessary

By Aki Matsumoto

Improvements in OP margin and Sales/Total Assets have been slow to improve ROE. More companies are including DOE in their dividend policy against the backdrop of increasing cash on hand.
With costs expected to increase amid rising prices, sales and gross margins need to be raised, and therefore the component costs of investment and high-margin operations need to be raised.
Restructuring the business portfolio later to determine cash allocation will not result in effective investment and must result in limited improvement in profit margins on sales.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart International Group L, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Abc Mart Inc, CaoCao Inc, Walmart and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case
Walmart Raises Alarm on Tariffs: What Shoppers Need to Brace For!

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK) opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.
Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.
Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (>20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

By Michael Causton

The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.

CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
In CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.

Walmart Raises Alarm on Tariffs: What Shoppers Need to Brace For!

Walmart reported a solid first quarter for fiscal 2026, with results exceeding analysts’ expectations and reflecting resilience amid a volatile economic environment.
The company posted adjusted earnings of 61 cents per share, surpassing the 58-cent consensus estimate, and saw revenue grow 2.5% year over year to $165.6 billion.
U.S. same-store sales rose 4.5%, outpacing the projected 3.9% increase.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Consumer: HLB Inc, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Great Wall Motor, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Alibaba Group Holding , Macy’s Inc, Mitsubishi Shokuhin, Rivian Automotive , Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread
A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 June 2025); Volumes Up, TECH Down, HEALTHCARE Bought Big
One of the Clues to Know How Serious a Company Is About Shifting to Management that Creates Value
Weekly Deals Digest (15 Jun) – Haitian, Sanhua, Toyota Industries, Tryt, Fengxiang, HKBN, Mayne
Alibaba’s Bold AI & Cloud Bet Is Driving Our Optimism–But It Comes at A BIG COST!
How Macy’s Is Powering An Omnichannel Comeback With Bold Reinvestment Strategies!
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: New World Res., Fuji Corp, TRYT, Shinsung Tongsang, Austal, Mitsu. Shokuhin
Rivian Just Teamed Up with Volkswagen—Can This Partnership Be a Billion-Dollar Power Move?
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: An Insight into its Marketing & Digital Technology Investments & Other Major Drivers

HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread

By Sanghyun Park

Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.
No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.
No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”

By Travis Lundy

AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 June 2025); Volumes Up, TECH Down, HEALTHCARE Bought Big

By Travis Lundy

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$15+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying still positive but still below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, ENERGY stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, INFO TECH again. 9 weeks in a row negative. Tencent bigly sold.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

One of the Clues to Know How Serious a Company Is About Shifting to Management that Creates Value

By Aki Matsumoto

The driver of higher stock valuations is overseas investors, and engagement by overseas investors is likely to have a positive effect on return on capital and stock valuations.
In many aspects, companies seem to be unwilling to face shareholders. If they don’t confront shareholders and proceed with management reforms, they will not be able to implement serious initiatives.
It can be hypothesized that the behavior of prioritizing control over the AGM over engaging with shareholders provides a clue as to the seriousness of a company’s efforts.

Weekly Deals Digest (15 Jun) – Haitian, Sanhua, Toyota Industries, Tryt, Fengxiang, HKBN, Mayne

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listings and CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), TRYT (9164 JP), With Us Corp (9696 JP), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).

Alibaba’s Bold AI & Cloud Bet Is Driving Our Optimism–But It Comes at A BIG COST!

Alibaba Group delivered a mixed performance in the March quarter and for the full fiscal year 2025, showing resilience in its core operations while falling short of analyst expectations on key financial metrics.
The company reported revenue of $32.58 billion for the quarter, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, but this fell below projections of $33.28 billion.
Net income for the period came in at $1.71 billion, significantly lower than the anticipated $2.93 billion.

How Macy’s Is Powering An Omnichannel Comeback With Bold Reinvestment Strategies!

Macy’s, Inc. recently reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, showing performance that outpaced prior guidance across key metrics, yet still reflecting underlying challenges present in the retail environment.
The company’s net sales amounted to $4.6 billion, exceeding its forecast of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion.
The comparable sales for owned, licensed, and marketplace stores showed a decline of 1.2%, which was better than the anticipated drop of 2.5% to 4.5%.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: New World Res., Fuji Corp, TRYT, Shinsung Tongsang, Austal, Mitsu. Shokuhin

I tally 47 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: New World Resources (NWC AU)‘s Scheme, and Tender Offers for Fuji Corp (7605 JP), TRYT (9164 JP), and Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS).
Fer.Key updates/news took place on: Austal Ltd (ASB AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), and Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP).

Rivian Just Teamed Up with Volkswagen—Can This Partnership Be a Billion-Dollar Power Move?

Rivian Automotive reported its Q1 2025 results with several key financial and strategic developments.
On the financial front, Rivian achieved a notable milestone by delivering its second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit, recording $206 million, a result that secured a $1 billion investment from the Volkswagen Group.
This investment is expected to further support Rivian’s operational and strategic goals.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: An Insight into its Marketing & Digital Technology Investments & Other Major Drivers

Abercrombie & Fitch has reported its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, delivering performance that exceeded initial projections in terms of both revenue and earnings.
The company’s net sales reached a record $1.1 billion, marking an 8% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding the anticipated range of 4% to 6%.
The operating margin achieved was 9.3%, and earnings per share came in at $1.59, both surpassing initial guidance.

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Jun 14

Daily Brief Consumer: Vishal Mega Mart, Bloks Group, Lands’ End Inc, Raccoon Holdings, Inc. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart IPO Lockup Expiry – US$4bn Lockup Release with PE Sitting on 10x Gains
Bloks Group (0325.HK): Six-Month IPO Lock-Up Will Expire In July, Time To Take Profits
LE: Snapping the Catalog: Tote Girls Rule; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Full-year FY04/25 flash update

Vishal Mega Mart IPO Lockup Expiry – US$4bn Lockup Release with PE Sitting on 10x Gains

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Vishal Mega Mart raised around US$950m in its India IPO. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Six-Month IPO Lock-Up Will Expire In July, Time To Take Profits

By Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group is one of the top performing stocks in Hong Kong this year, with shares up 186% over the year versus a ~19% gain on the HSI.
Chinese assembly character toy maker priced its offering at HK$60.35 per share in January, top of a range, and raised ~HK$1.8B of the net proceeds.
The offering was 5,000+ times oversubscribed and Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors. The company’s six-month IPO lockup will expire on July 9, 2025.

LE: Snapping the Catalog: Tote Girls Rule; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we review the June catalog.
Picking up on a theme from last month, the June catalog focus is on the Lands’ End “tote girl.” The company has continued to leverage the popularity of their totes (the most purchases Lands’ End item) and an overall trend towards personalization and embellishment, to capture a younger customer and drive multiple item purchases.
For June, the focus remains on swimwear (now at 50% off), and great new looks for the Lands’; End summer lifestyle, from a new linen collection, dresses, the emerging swim dress category and fitted tops and cotton sweaters.

Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Full-year FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Raccoon Holdings achieved 5.0% YoY revenue growth in FY04/25, with EC and Financial businesses rising 6.9% and 2.4% respectively.
Operating profit increased 121.3% YoY, driven by reduced advertising expenses and increased personnel costs, resulting in a 20.6% OPM.
Revenue for FY04/26 is projected at JPY6.7bn (+10.5% YoY), with EC and Financial businesses growing 10.1% and 11.1% respectively.

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Jun 13

Daily Brief Consumer: Geely Auto, CaoCao Inc, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited, Shandong Fengxiang, Liuliu Orchard Group, Denso Corp, JAKKS Pacific , Meituan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: 1 Low-Conviction Change + 1 FAF Revision; US$1.3bn One-Way
CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound
Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Perfumes Growing, Challenges Remain
Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative
Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer
Liuliu Orchard Group Co Ltd Pre-IPO – Category Leader Scaling Direct Channels in Fragmented Market
Denso Corp(6902 JP)–Value Zone, Upgraded Growth Outlook, Sooner Resolution of Cross-Holding Overhang
JAKK: Further Tariff Proofing the Model Post Mgmt. Meetings; Reiterate Buy
Meituan (3690 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: 1 Low-Conviction Change + 1 FAF Revision; US$1.3bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in September 2025.
We see one low-conviction ADD/DEL and one significant float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$1.3bn in one-way index flows in September 2025.

CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
CaoCao was incubated by Geely Auto (175 HK). Geely founder Li Shufu owns 83.9% of CaoCao.
The bull case rests on accelerating GTV growth, the improving fundamentals of the core business, reducing losses and shifting to cash generation.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside.
SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.

Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Perfumes Growing, Challenges Remain

Eternal Beauty Holdings (EB) is looking to raise around US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about the PHIP updates.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative

In an unusual move, the Offeror, PAG, and 59.42% shareholder of Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), has opted not to provide a scrip alternative, despite satisfying conditions to do so.
The scrip option condition – not less than 0.5% of shares out expressing interest – was satisfied on the 12th May. Therefore at least 7.9mn shares got snubbed.
Evidently PAG reckons the support for the scrip is not worth the trouble. Nor critical in mass to disrupt the Offer.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer