Consumer

• Back on the 13th October 2025, Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting,  announced a conditional Offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK)
• GENT offered RM2.35/share, a 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer had a 50% acceptance threshold. The Offer is now unconditional.
• The Independent Advice Circular is now out. The IFA says NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. And to reject the Offer. The revised closing date is the 1st December. 

• Golden Entertainment’s sale-leaseback with VICI involves 7 casinos, distributing 24.3m VICI shares to shareholders at 0.902/share.
• Chairman Blake Sartini’s privatization offer values RemainCo at $2.75/share, approximately 1x EBITDA, sparking activist opposition.
• Activists demand separate votes for transactions, citing inadequate RemainCo valuation and potential 33% upside to $39.5/share.

• Chinese purchases of US agricultural products are expected to increase gradually but may take time due to seasonality and price competitiveness
• US farmers may see more optimism in the 2026-2027 season as trade discussions with China improve and market participation increases
• The complex nature of US-China trade relations and the continued volatility in the agricultural markets make for a clouded outlook, but there is potential for growth and market shifts in the near future.

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• Shadowfax Technologies (1310315D IN) is looking to raise about US$225m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley, ICICI and JM Financial.
• Shadowfax Technologies is a new-age, technology-led third-party logistics (3PL) company that leverages a unified platform to facilitate digital commerce across India.
• The company provides a comprehensive suite of logistics services organised across express, hyperlocal, and other logistics segments.

• Coupang faces a fast-emerging risk: a potential ban on early dawn deliveries (midnight–5 AM), driven by the powerful 1.1 million-member Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU). 
• The Coupang Union and most drivers strongly oppose the ban, warning of layoffs and slower deliveries. Consumers also prefer the current system. 
• If enacted, the ban could severely hurt Coupang and Korea’s economy. Probability of passage has risen sharply. I would be cautious on Coupang until this risk factor is fully resolved. 

• Crocs, Inc.’s third quarter of 2025 revealed a complex performance landscape driven by strategic decisions and market conditions.
• The company, known for both the Crocs and HEYDUDE brands, demonstrated efforts to realign its operations toward long-term growth despite short-term challenges.
• On the positive side, Crocs, Inc. showcased strong profitability and cash flow in the quarter, which facilitated share repurchases and debt reduction.

• In cumulative Q3 FY12/25, revenue was JPY92.6bn, with an operating loss of JPY280mn and a recurring loss of JPY17.1bn.
• Amusement Equipment business revenue was JPY41.4bn, with a 29.6% YoY increase in units sold to 83,877 units.
• Integrated Resort business revenue was JPY50.6bn, with an operating loss of JPY3.0bn and adjusted EBITDA of JPY9.9bn.

• For 1H FY03/26, revenue decreased 7.7% YoY to JPY154.5bn, with operating profit down 16.6% YoY to JPY4.5bn.
• The company revised FY03/26 forecast, lowering revenue by JPY19.0bn and operating profit by JPY2.1bn due to external disruptions.
• Full-year dividend forecast remains JPY90.0 per share, with a projected payout ratio of 38.5%.

• Sales increased by 16.5% YoY to JPY196.4bn, with growth across all business segments, and operating profit rose by 33.5% YoY.
• Toys segment sales reached JPY86.0bn (+10.2% YoY), with operating profit at JPY5.0bn (+12.0% YoY), driven by lottery products.
• Dividend policy revised to JPY60.0 per share for FY03/26, with a target payout ratio of 40%.

• Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.’s third-quarter earnings call for fiscal 2025 offered a detailed view of the company’s current performance and strategic initiatives.
• Both positive trends and challenges were evident in the results and future outlook.
• On the positive side, the company reported an increase in diluted earnings per share, rising by 10.4% from the previous year to $0.53, surpassing the guidance range.

• Back on the 30th September, television broadcaster and publisher Seven West Media (SWM AU) entered into a Scheme with radio network play Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).
• SXL will issue 0.1552 new shares for every SWM share. Should the Scheme get up, SXL will hold 50.1% of the combined entity and SWM the remainder.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd December, and expected implementation on the 7th January. The IE (Lonergan) says “fair & reasonable“. Clean deal.

• Based on the Offer Price of HK$0.35, P/B is 0.69x. This valuation level is lower than the historical average and also has a certain discount compared to the industry average.
• CSM’s net profit may return to positive by 2026. After profitability returns to normal, its P/B ratio is expected to approach 0.8-1x at least. Then reasonable valuation level is HK$0.41-0.51/share.
• Since minorities representing 18.74% of CSM outstanding shares needs to tender to hit the “50% hurdle”, this brings uncertainties as the Offer Price may not be attractive to some minorities.

• Human Made (456A JP) aims to raise around US$116m in its Japan IPO.
• Human Made Inc. is a Japan-based apparel and lifestyle company. Its business model centers on producing high-value, limited-supply apparel and goods.
• In our previous note, we looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
• In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).

• Context: The REA Group (REA AU) vs. News Corp (NWS AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long REA Group (REA AU) and short News Corp (NWS AU) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• ASICS is demonstrating exceptional growth, driven by market share gains in its core Performance Running segment and the rapid expansion of its high-margin Lifestyle brands, Onitsuka Tiger and SportStyle.
• The company’s financial performance is robust, characterized by seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, significant margin expansion, and upward revisions to profit guidance.
• Future growth is contingent on successful penetration of the large but historically underdeveloped North American and Asian markets, alongside continued product innovation and expansion of its digital, direct-to-consumer channels.

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• Sales reached JPY26.2bn (+0.2% YoY), with operating profit at JPY1.4bn (+16.0% YoY), and net income JPY844mn (+18.2% YoY).
• Domestic sales were stable, with increased average eyeglass prices, but unit sales declined due to cost-conscious consumer behavior.
• Overseas sales were affected by the China subsidiary’s decline, despite improved profitability from closing unprofitable stores.

• Dole is a global leader in the fresh produce industry, benefiting from a vertically integrated business model and strong brand recognition. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growing consumer demand for healthy and sustainable food options.
• Financial performance has been robust, with consistent revenue growth and significant increases in net income and free cash flow over the past three years. However, the company faces challenges from input cost inflation, supply chain disruptions, and intense competition.
• The stock appears moderately valued relative to peers. While the company has made progress in reducing debt, its valuation multiples do not suggest a significant discount. Future stock performance will likely depend on margin improvement, successful strategic initiatives, and navigating macroeconomic headwinds.

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• Volume and mix: Larger, multi -site retail rollouts and attractions work packages carry better labor utilization and subcontractor terms than one -off event builds.
• Scope control: Gross margin sits in change -order discipline, procurement timing, and fabrication reuse. Slippage shows up first in subcontractor costs and overtime.
• Cash conversion: Upfront deposits and milestone invoicing offset receivable build. Account receivable (AR) discipline and collection cadence are the first line of defense for free cash flow.

• Fox Factory Holding Corp.’s third-quarter financial results for 2025 present a complex mix of positive and negative developments.
• Overall, the company reported net sales of $376.4 million, marking a 4.8% increase compared to the same period last year.
• This growth was propelled by its Powered Vehicles Group (PVG) and Aftermarket Applications Group (AAG), although it was somewhat offset by challenges in the Specialty Sports Group (SSG).

• Today after the close, Paris Miki Holdings (7455 JP) announced the Tane family Holdco would buy out the company in an “MBO” at ¥581, or 4.8x current year EBITDA. 
• World famous eyeglass/sunglass manufacturer Luxottica bought 13.8% of the company in the low ¥300s almost stopping about a year ago. They might complain, but Paris Miki is a big outlet.
• This looks like it gets done. The family+crossholders+ESOP+warrants have 65% of the expanded share count. Those who would complain would need to do so soon, and loudly.

• Paris Miki Holdings (7455 JP) has recommended a Chairman-led MBO at JPY581, a 48.6% premium to the last close price.
• While the offer is arguably light as it is marginally below book value (P/B of 0.99x), it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
• The offer represents a 10-year high. Luxottica Group (LUX IM), the second-largest shareholder, has not signalled whether it will tender, but it would struggle to derail the offer.

• Human Made (456A JP) aims to raise around US$116m in its Japan IPO.
• Human Made Inc. is a Japan-based apparel and lifestyle company. Its business model centers on producing high-value, limited-supply apparel and goods.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 28 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 12 December.
• There could be one delete each for the CSI Liquor Index and the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index. Plus capping changes for a bunch of stocks.
• The entire sector has been under pressure over the last few years with every rally being sold into.

• The Seven West Media (SWM AU) IE considers the SXL merger offer to be in the best interests of its shareholders, absent a superior proposal.
• The merger requires approval from SWM shareholders, ACMA, and the ACCC. The ACCC’s findings will be announced on 18 December. 
• The scheme vote is low risk as large SWM shareholders are supportive. Shares are trading through terms likely due to speculation of a competing bidder, which is unlikely to occur.  

• Total revenue grew by 21% YoY and offline revenue grew by 50% YoY in 3Q25.
• Both ARPPU and the user base increased YoY in 3Q25.
• The margin had improved year over year for 13 quarters.

• Delfi announced 3rd qtr. update: Revenue increasing 4.9%. This is in contrast to1st Half when revenues were flat.
• Revenue growth in Indonesia was driven by both pricing and volume gain in key brands in Indonesia & by regional markets
• Indonesia sales would be higher at 6.9% on constant currency basis.

• Trent reported a 17% YoY rise in Q2FY26 revenue to INR 4,724 crore, while PAT grew 6%. Star Bazaar saw a 2% decline due to ongoing upgrades and stronger competition.
• Efficient cost control and technology-driven productivity helped maintain margins despite slower same-store sales and expansion into lower-yield Tier-II cities.
• Trent’s steady execution and well-diversified retail portfolio support its medium-term growth outlook, though high valuations and increasing operating costs remain key risks to monitor.

• 7th straight quarter of double-digit growth; 3Q revenue +21% y/y to ¥222bn, led by strong EU and Japan performance and steady global expansion.
• Gross margin +110bps to 56.1%, operating margin +320bps to 20.9%; FY OP guidance raised to ¥140bn, share buyback of ¥30bn announced.
• Near-Term share impact limited, but long-term growth underpinned by SportStyle and Onitsuka Tiger; OP could double to ~¥260bn though next MTP cycle.

• We believe that Geely Automobile, listed in Hong Kong as 0175, is a private equity fund first and an auto company second.

• Expectations that Geely will become an international blockbuster akin to Toyota or Hyundai are misplaced.

• Geely relied in 2024 for half its profit on mark-to-market value in subsidiaries.

• Light & Wonder (LNW US) will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.
• After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.
• The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday. 

• On the 30th October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) (CSM). 
• CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. 
• The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. 

• Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.
• Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.
• Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.

• Introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio with AI powered PDF spaces
• Fairlife milk, a phenomenon in the dairy industry, known for being healthier and having longer shelf life
• Protein craze in the beverage industry, highlighted by Fairlife and other protein drinks at Starbucks

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• On 30 October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) announced a conditional share purchase agreement to acquire 1.28% of outstanding China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) shares at HK$0.35 per share. 
• The SPA is conditional on SAMR and independent CMD shareholder approval. SPA completion will trigger a mandatory conditional cash offer at HK$0.35 per share.
• Post-Completion, CMD and concert parties will hold a 31.26% stake. The offer is conditional on a 50% minimum acceptance condition, which is problematic as the offer is not particularly attractive.  

• Sprouts Farmers Market released a set of financial results for the third quarter of 2025 that presents a mixed picture for current and potential investors.
• The company reported total sales of $2.2 billion, marking a 13% increase compared to the same quarter in the prior year.
• Comparable store sales rose by 5.9%, indicating growth despite challenging market conditions.

• Based on 25Q3 results, the biggest problem lies in the continuous slowdown of its core business (energy beverages), which has led to the overall performance slightly falling short of expectations.
• The upper limit of Eastroc Super Drink could be around RMB23-27 billion. Since energy beverages’ annual revenue has approached RMB16 billion, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the remaining growth.
• The future growth of Eastroc may not support the current valuation. A more comfortable valuation range could be P/E of 20-25x, which will provide investors with sufficient margin of safety.

• The company reported record highs for 1H with revenue of JPY361.7bn and profit attributable to owners of JPY70.3bn.
• Effective Q1 FY03/25, the company adopted a new segmentation, now reporting seven segments, including Electricity and Gas.
• Dividend forecasts for FY03/26 were raised to JPY736 per share, reflecting solid earnings and outlook adjustments.

• NGK Spark Plug, now operating as Niterra, is the global leader in spark plugs and automotive sensors, commanding a dominant market share. However, the company faces a significant long-term structural headwind from the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which do not utilize its core products.
• Management is actively pursuing a diversification strategy to mitigate EV risk, leveraging its core competency in ceramics to expand into higher-growth areas. Key focus areas include components for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, medical products, and next-generation technologies like solid-state batteries.
• The company exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, robust profitability, and significant cash flow generation. Valuation appears attractive relative to peers, but the market is pricing in the long-term uncertainty associated with the decline of the internal combustion engine (ICE).

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• Nykaa delivered its strongest quarter in two years in Q2 FY26, with GMV up 30% YoY and EBITDA margins expanding 125 bps to 6.8%.
• The results confirm that Nykaa’s profitability driven by owned brands, omnichannel integration, and AI-enabled personalization is firmly turning.
• Fashion’s near-term breakeven and continued premiumization in beauty could re-rate Nykaa as a sustainable compounding story.

• Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.
• Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.
• Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.

• As Brian Freitas recently outlined: the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will undergo its semi-annual review by the end of November 2025, there could be profit-taking as we near that date.
• In our previous insight we flagged potential downside tail risk. While the index hasn’t fallen since our warning, this doesn’t mean the risk has dissipated.
• Our profit target model (the “go SHORT” model) is showing a rare pattern with very few rallies, severely limited upside (less than 1.5%) and an 80% reversal probability.Bearish.

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
• We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.

• With the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the December rebalance.
• Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for Tata Motors (TTMT IN) could result in index deletion.
• InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) being added to the index instead.

• Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, “mid-teens” sales growth
• SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store
• The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO 

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU — US$3.0 billion) is one of the world’s largest wine producers globally. And it’s one of the very few large companies in Australia trading at a reasonable valuation multiple.

• It started as the wine division of brewery giant Forster’s Group. From the 1990s onwards, Foster’s acquired vineyards and brands such as Penfolds, Lindeman’s and Beringer.

• But throughout the 2000s, this wine division underperformed, draining cash from Foster’s highly profitable beer business. So in 2011, it was eventually spun off into a separately listed entity called Treasury Wine Estates (TWE).

• Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) IPO opens today – 11 Nov 2025.The issue is a combination of fresh issue of INR 31 billion and offer for sale of INR 3.8 billion.
• In this insight we discuss about the company, the industry, past controversies in the sector across major players.
• We finally provide rationale why we do now know what valuation multiple to assign given the various factors.

• Physicswallah Is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about the RHP updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

• Margins yet to recover – 3Q25 profitability remained under pressure from China promotions and early Vietnam cost drag.
• Strong topline – revenue +61 % YoY, driven by broad-based global demand.
• Recovery deferred – margin inflection likely only after efficiency gains and tariff easing.

• Revenue increased to JPY37.2bn (+18.2% YoY), driven by new store openings and M&A activity in FY03/25.
• Operating profit reached JPY1.6bn (+1.0% YoY), despite higher raw material and personnel costs impacting profitability.
• The SRS group opened 13 restaurants, closed 18, and acquired six through M&A, ending with 781 restaurants.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK). 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) is seeking to raise US$507 million through a H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Japan Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation (9287 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK). 

• BYD (1211 HK) has produced an enviable growth rate for the last 2 decades in the NEV sector. 
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US) has completed selling all its holding in BYD. 
• The growth rate is no longer as high as before, and therefore demands a new way to evaluate the stock as its PEG increases. 

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (7 to 21 November 2025).
• Our top 10 picks in the next two weeks include KT&G, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Life Insurance, Orion Corp, Dentium, Hanmi Pharm, LG Chem (pref), Amorepacific Corp, Daewoong Pharm, and SK.  
• Notable stocks with excellent share price performances in the past two weeks are as follows: Taihan Electric Wire (up 32.7%) Hanmi Pharm (up 29.5%), and SK Hynix (up 13.7%).

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, the deal flow continues unabated, although a lot of listing in Hong Kong didn’t do to well last week.
• On the placements front, there were a number of deals, with a few right at lockup expiry.

• Softcare (2698 HK)‘s IPO price was fixed at HK$26.20, or 16.4x FY26F PER, with overwhelming positive responses in both the Hong Kong IPO and international offer. 
• We calculate its fair value at HK$26.07-29.43, based on a 50% premium to Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and a 20% discount to the US peers, leaving limited upside.
• Its tiny public shareholder ownership (15%) and the potential of being an M&A target will elevate its valuations. However, anything above the US peers (i.e. 20.5x PER) is expensive. 

• Softcare (2698 HK) (SC) raised around US$307m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Softcare (SC) is an international hygiene product corporation engaged in the development, manufacturing and sales of baby and feminine hygiene products.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Lenskart Solutions raised around US$825m in its India IPO, with a very strong anchor book.
• Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
• We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• In response to calls from overseas investors to eliminate parent-subsidiary dual listings, the number of listed subsidiaries has decreased, while the number of equity-method affiliates has increased.
• Some companies that found themselves with no wayout resorted to selling off part of their holdings to transition to equity method affiliates, for the time being, driven by herd mentality.
• When considering investment strategies focused on parent-subsidiary listings, in the highly liquid Prime Market, equity method affiliates are more promising investment targets than the limited number of listed subsidiaries.

• Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported steady growth in Q3 2025, with revenues/profits increasing by 5.5% and 18.9% YoY, respectively. Volume/Pricing grew -1%/6.6% YoY as the company offset excise-duty increases.
• EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.8%, while the company’s net cash and investments remained stable at 16.7 billion pesos (59 pesos/share, or 21% of market capitalization).
• Trading at 9.3x PE and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR (with a dividend yield of 5.4%), this is a name to explore.

• Serve Robotics is a key player in the nascent autonomous sidewalk delivery market, with a strategic focus on last-mile food and grocery delivery.
• The company’s growth is underpinned by significant partnerships with major food delivery platforms, Uber Eats and DoorDash, providing immediate access to a large volume of orders.
• While experiencing rapid revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable with significant cash burn, highlighting the high-risk, high-reward nature of this emerging industry. The path to profitability hinges on successful fleet expansion, operational efficiency, and navigating regulatory landscapes.

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• It’s fair bet Matheson (JM SP) opted for a Scheme for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded Jardine Strategic (JS SP)‘s dissentient shareholders.
• On Light & Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US) giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. 
• Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) moves to take out its 9.57% stake. 

• I tally 37 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrcis and upcoming events are detailed below.
• Surprisingly, no new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. 
• Key updates/news also took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), and Restaurant Brands (RBD NZ).

• A Bathing Ape was a major success in the eyes of customers, but behind the scenes, founder Nigo became a victim of this very success. 
• Human Made is a different story, structured to give the designer full rein creatively but with experts in operations and marketing making the whole project more sustainable.
• Sales have risen 10-fold since 2020 and the brand will IPO this month, representative of the huge potential for Japan’s creative talent.

• Chipotle Mexican Grill’s third-quarter performance for fiscal 2025 reveals a mixed picture.
• The company reported a 7.5% increase in sales, reaching $3 billion, though same-store sales increased by only 0.3%.
• Digital sales contributed significantly, making up 36.7% of total sales.

• Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported strong operational performance for the quarter ended September 2025. This insight shares details about the performance.
• The recent changes in tax incentive will impact jewelry manufacturers. This insight details about this.
• Finally, we cover various points which will drive the near term performance of the company.

• Corporate Governance Code seems to be revised in ‘verifying and disclosing cash allocation’ in addition to ‘requests for disclosure in annual securities reports to enhance items related to human capital.’
• This time, the disclosure request concerns cash allocation. Previously, disclosure regarding policy shareholdings was requested, but the elimination of cross-shareholdings did not progress smoothly.
• The government plans to encourage growth investment in accumulated cash reserves without business plans for growth by strengthening disclosure rules and offering tax incentives.

• Carvana’s recent earnings call provides a comprehensive view of its performance for the third quarter of 2025.
• The company reported strong growth in multiple key areas, setting new records for retail units sold, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP operating income.
• Retail units sold increased by 44% year-over-year, reaching 155,941, while revenue rose by 55% to a new high of $5.647 billion, indicative of higher selling prices and strategic partnerships.

• V.F. Corporation’s latest financial results reflect both challenges and strategic moves within the company.
• For Q2 Fiscal Year 2026, the company’s total revenue increased by 2% in reported dollars, though it experienced a 1% decline when adjusted for constant currency.
• This slight decline represents an improvement from the previous quarter, indicating some positive momentum in their turnaround efforts.

• Garmin Ltd.’s third quarter of 2025 reflected mixed performance across its diverse business segments, yet the results were notable on a number of fronts.
• Over this quarter, Garmin reported a 12% increase in consolidated revenue, reaching nearly $1.8 billion, marking a record third quarter for the company.
• This growth was achieved despite a challenging comparison period from last year, which saw a 24% rise in revenue.

• Revenue reached JPY6.0bn, an 8.2% YoY increase, with operating profit up 34.3% and net profit up 37.1%.
• Photo wedding services saw a 5.0% increase in photo shoots and a 2.8% rise in unit price YoY.
• FY09/26 forecasts a 7.2% revenue increase, driven by new studio openings and improved operating profit margins.

• CVS Health Corporation’s financial performance for the third quarter of 2025 reflects a blend of success and challenges across its diversified business segments.
• The company reported solid results, with an adjusted operating income of $3.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.60, surpassing expectations for the third consecutive quarter.
• The full-year adjusted EPS guidance was increased to a range of $6.55 to $6.65, indicating confidence in their ongoing strategies.

• GEO Holdings’ revenue increased by 8.6% YoY to JPY216.9bn, with net income rising 14.2% YoY.
• The company expanded 2nd STREET stores domestically and internationally, with overseas store count increasing in the US, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong.
• Sales of secondhand media products rose 3.2% YoY, driven by used mobile devices and new gaming consoles.

• In August, Light & Wonder (LNW AU) / Light & Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
• The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days. 
• This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track. 

• A major global index provider announced its quarterly review on 5th November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24th November 2025.
• There were 133 changes announced. We got 115 of these 133 changes – around 86%.
• In this insight, we have presented our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes and provide a few comments on specific situations.

• On 23 October, the MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) was increased by 42.4% to JPY2,919 per share. The offer closes on 7 November. 
• Today, Effissimo further increased its stake to 8.6 million shares, representing 13.97% of outstanding shares and a 14.82% ownership ratio. The implication is that Effissimo remains unsupportive.  
• The shares trade above terms, and the close is likely to be extended. Another bump is possible, but likely, the Ogawas will first try to lower the minimum acceptance condition. 

• Number 1 chocolate company in Indonesia with own brands like SilverQueen, Ceres etc. The company also distributes third party brands across South Asia.
• Cocoa prices have halved from their recent peak but still they are higher than historical average
• Stock trades at reasonable multiple to its 2023 earnings when cocoa prices were stable

• DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) reported revenue/profit of 0%/-52% YoY, reflecting a slowdown in revenue due to the e-wallet redirection policy taking effect in mid-August.
• A&P spends on billboards and events contracted for the full year are effectively fixed costs for the short term, resulting in a higher opex% of sales. 
• We expect these to normalize and for sales to recover, with PAGCOR announcing a sales recovery in late September/early October.  Stock trades at 8.5x/7.2x PE FY25e/26e.

• New Oriental Education & Technology Group reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results, highlighting both strengths and challenges for its future trajectory.
• The company showcased a moderate 6.1% year-over-year increase in total net revenue, which indicates stable growth following a period of strategic adjustments.
• This growth is credited to enhancing capabilities, operational resilience, and a focus on sustainable profitability.

• Kohnan Shoji is a leading home improvement retailer in Japan, demonstrating resilient growth through strategic store network expansion, particularly its successful ‘KOHNAN PRO’ format catering to professional customers.
• The company’s focus on developing high-margin Private Brand (PB) products is a key pillar of its strategy to enhance profitability and differentiate itself in a competitive market.
• While facing challenges from a mature domestic market and intense competition, Kohnan’s active M&A strategy and consistent dividend growth present a compelling case for long-term value creation.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Kimberly-Clark, a prominent name in the consumer goods sector, delivered a robust performance in its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025.
• The company demonstrated strong momentum, particularly in the area of organic sales growth, bolstered by the most significant volume quarter it has experienced in five years.
• A core driver of this growth was Kimberly-Clark’s ability to gain market share across several key categories in its largest markets, with notable success in China and broader global applications of their strategic playbook.

• Papa John’s International Inc.’s first-quarter 2025 performance was marked by strategic progress along with challenges within a difficult consumer environment.
• The company reported global system-wide restaurant sales of $1.22 billion, a 1% increase from the prior year in constant currency terms, underscoring some growth despite challenging market conditions.
• In North America, same-store sales decreased by 2.7%, although this figure represents an improvement over previous periods, suggesting some positive momentum.

• The Estée Lauder Companies recently shared its fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year earnings.
• The results were characterized by some significant challenges as well as positive strides, outlining both areas of promise and concern for potential investors.
• For fiscal year 2025, Estée Lauder reported an 8% decline in organic sales, largely driven by a 28% decline in travel retail sales, which constitutes about 15% of their total sales.

• Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
• The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
• Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) yesterday decided to launch a question-response effort for the Murakami-san Group ownership of Mandom shares up to and above 20%. This is a Poison Pill precursor.
• There’s a drawn out set of questions, answers, etc, at the end of which, the Independent Committee will decide that Murakami is a Bad Person and the Poison Pill proceeds.
• Murakami Group is apparently now over 20%. That’s a little tricky. But this looks like a Good Poison Pill. 

• Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.

• The Pinkfong Company successfully completed its IPO book building process. It finalized the IPO price at 38,000 won (high end of the IPO price range). 
• A total of 2,300 domestic and international institutions participated in the book building process. The IPO competition ratio was 615.9 to 1.  
• Our base case valuation of the Pinkfong Co is implied market cap of 671.4 billion won or target price of 46,369 won per share (over the next 6-12 months). 

• BYD (1211 HK) does not seem ready yet to reverse its downtrend, sentiment is still negative (not too negative), Q3 revenues decreased (no surprise, as recently noted by Ming Lu).
• BYD is short-term OVERSOLD, this is a tactical WEEKLY view presenting an actionable opportunity with a 1-3 week trade horizon (probably a 2 weeks rebound, maximum).
• Our quantitative models say the stock will not correct for more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered (the stock is currently in its second consecutive week down).

• Physicswallah is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Dominant Player in a High-Growth Market: Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY) is a leading producer of premium dairy and consumer food products in Indonesia, a market poised for significant growth driven by a rising middle class, increasing health consciousness, and urbanization. The company holds a dominant market share, particularly in the yogurt category.
• Robust Financial Performance and Strong Growth Track Record: CMRY has demonstrated an exceptional growth trajectory, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 30.13% and a net income CAGR of 24.35%. This is underpinned by successful product innovation and expansion of its distribution network, leading to consistent margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation.
• Strategic Focus on Innovation and Distribution Expansion: The company’s strategy centers on continuous product innovation in both its dairy (Cimory brand) and consumer foods (Kanzler brand) segments, coupled with an aggressive expansion of its distribution channels, including modern trade, general trade, and its unique direct-to-consumer ‘Miss Cimory’ network. This dual focus is expected to sustain its growth momentum and market leadership.

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• Wayfair’s latest quarterly performance provides insight into both the company’s strategic achievements and the broader challenges it faces in a fluctuating market environment.
• During Q3 2025, Wayfair experienced a notable 9% year-over-year revenue growth excluding its exit from Germany, marking acceleration despite a sluggish housing market.
• This growth was accompanied by a significant surge in adjusted EBITDA, rising by over 70% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 6.7%, the highest for Wayfair outside of the pandemic period.

• Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB US) went public on 12 September 2025 on Nasdaq and has a current market cap of $1.2bn.
• Inclusion in US indices is expected in December 2025 and in Global index in February 2026, as the security meets eligibility criteria before lock-up expiry mainly due to ~100% float.
• Exclusion from certain US and Global index is anticipated due to limited market cap.

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) reported Q3 FY25 revenue and earnings growth of 7% and 3% YoY, respectively (4% above analysts’ estimates), due to better mix and personalization.
• Management is confident it will meet its conservative (revised upwards in capital markets day) FY25 guidance, projecting baseline revenue and EPS growth of 6% and 4% YoY, respectively.
• The stock trades at 38.4x FY25 PE and 22.4x EV-EBITDA. Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)  continues to maintain its unique pricing power, driven by its loyal customer base.