Consumer

• Royal Caribbean Group recently reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024.
• Their performance reflected growth in net yields and operating cash flow, achieving their financial goals ahead of schedule.
• Their exceptional customer satisfaction scores and robust cash generation highlight successful execution amidst a recovering travel industry.

• Sales reached JPY7.4bn (+1.7% YoY), with strong performance from new hair styling products, despite a decline in toiletries.
• Operating profit was JPY1.7bn (-6.2% YoY), impacted by increased costs in talent acquisition, development, and capital expenditures.
• Revised FY03/25 forecasts: Sales JPY9.3bn, operating profit JPY1.8bn, due to lower sales expectations and higher expenses.

• General Motors Company (GM) presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year of 2024, showcasing a series of strategic decisions and market maneuvers that paint a complex picture for potential investors.
• On the positive side, GM achieved significant growth with a 9% increase in full-year revenue, reaching $187 billion.
• The company marked a strong presence in the U.S. by becoming the leader in retail, fleet, and total sales, and it reported record figures in EBIT-adjusted, adjusted automotive free cash flow, and EPS diluted adjusted.

• Kimberly-Clark reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results, highlighting several key elements that provide insight into the company’s current positioning and future prospects.
• The company unveiled its Powering Care transformation strategy, which restructures its organization into three main segments, aiming for optimized growth and efficiency.
• This structure hopes to foster an environment conducive to volume and mix-driven growth, targeting expansion ahead of its market categories.

• Starbucks Corporation recently reported its first-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, revealing key insights into its current business performance and strategic direction.
• The company registered revenue of $9.4 billion, a result that was flat compared to the previous year.
• This came alongside a 4% decline in global comparable store sales, a global operating margin of 11.9%, and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69.

• The latest quarter’s performance for Sysco Corporation showcases a mixed but generally positive period, featuring multiple elements contributing to both growth and challenges.
• Sysco reported total revenue exceeding $20 billion, marking a 4.5% year-over-year growth, exceeding expectations when compared to the previous quarter.
• This growth was predominantly driven by U.S. Foodservice volume growth of 1.4% and a seemingly moderate inflation rate of 2.1%.

• Sales declined 1.3% YoY to JPY230.3bn, with Chemicals and Machinery segments experiencing significant drops in sales.
• Pre-tax interim profit rose 6.7% YoY to JPY12.7bn, aided by bad debt reversals and investment gains.
• Chori invested in PT. TAKAHA MULTICHEM INDONESIA, acquiring a 21% stake to expand in Indonesia’s cosmetics market.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $6 price target and projections after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
• We believe, after the end of season sale and on the cusp of Spring, Vince is well positioned to continue to drive strong results, with solid fashion offerings, strong inventory position, lower discounting and a continued focus on expanding men’s and other key categories, with current success in belts, winter accessories and small leather goods.
• As such, and with new management joining the company next month, we reiterate our Buy rating and $6 price target for VNCE.

• Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up. 
• The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans. 
• The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh. 

• Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell a 31% stake in Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) reducing ownership to 20% by 2025, triggering a 20% decline due to valuation concerns.
• The implied sale valuation is lower than market expectations, raising concerns about growth, profitability, and stock overvaluation, while the parent company capitalizes on an asset arbitrage opportunity.
• Short-Term stock pressure due to stake sale overhang, declining profitability, and reduced parent control, but potential long-term re-rating if operational performance improves.

• Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is set to book a strong finish to the year, with revenues on track to meet guidance and 4Q benefiting from supplier rebates and seasonal festivities.
• The company is guiding for revenue growth in 2025 in line with that of 2024, with a plan to open at least 1,000 new Alfamart stores during the year.
• The guidance for Lawson and Alfamidi store expansion has yet to be announced but numbers are likely to be similar or higher than 2024. Valuations remain attractive versus growth expectations. 

• Hagihara Industries reported FY24 (Oct year-end) earnings results on 10 December with FY24 operating profit [OP] of ¥2,097mil (+6.0% YoY) on sales of ¥33,118mil (+6.0% YoY) versus an OP target of ¥2,200mil (+11.2% YoY) on sales of ¥32,000mil (+2.4% YoY).
• While sales overshot the firm’s guidance, OP fell short due to costs associated with a core system renewal and real estate acquisition tax incurred on the Kasaoka Factory.
• Management is guiding for FY25 1H OP of ¥1,160mil (-8.8% YoY) on sales of ¥16,780mil (+2.5% YoY), and FY25 OP of ¥2,400mil (+14.4% YoY) on sales of ¥34,000mil (+2.7% YoY).

• Mexican market attractiveness discussed, focusing on Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica (Walmex)
• Mexican equities de-rated due to government policies, leading to discounted valuations for quality businesses like Walmex
• Walmex, largest retailer in Mexico and Central America with 3,901 stores, seen as well-run, high-quality business and long-term investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for Guess?
• after visiting stores in the New York City metro area and Long Island.
• With Guess?

• While the number of listed companies worldwide has been on a declining trend, the TSE has experienced growth in market capitalization, but growth in market capitalization has been slow.
• TSE requested companies to raise their P/B, but admits that many companies have yet to reach this goal and that it’ll take considerable time to change to such management style.
• Shareholder proposals are increasing. This could hasten the shift to value-creating management, or companies that find it burdensome as a cost of listing may choose to go private.

• CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2025 results today. 1Q revenues beat consensus but reported OP fell below consensus due to weak gaming margins.
• The key highlight of the quarter was the strong results of the Media business whose revenues saw strong growth with strengthened profitability.
• Though game earnings were slightly weak during 1Q, we would not be too worried as app analysis data reveals that the segment is off to a strong start in 2QFY09/2025.

• Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Sales increased by 7.3% YoY to JPY653.9bn, driven by IT solutions and maintenance/operations services.
• FY12/25 forecasts: Sales JPY680.0bn (+4.0% YoY), Operating profit JPY56.0bn (+5.4% YoY), Net income JPY39.5bn (+0.5% YoY).
• IT solutions sales expected to grow YoY, with a 7% increase in SI services and 10% in outsourcing.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the January catalog.
• The catalog has continued to focus on driving overall newness, with SKU counts remaining near record highs.
• with a combination of new products and returning favorites.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End after reviewing the January catalog.
• We believe, as the seasons begin to slowly switch from one company strength (outerwear) to another (swimwear), Lands’ End has continued to reduce overall discounting, focus even more on key fashion winners, become even more of a source for key outfits and looks, added to their technological and story telling resources and expand sales of higher margined licensed products.
• As such, we believe customer shifts and a focus on higher margin product offerings remain fully on tap, and we believe 2025 is shaping up as another year of material progress for Lands’ End: we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

• With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
• If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
• Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.

• Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
• This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets. 
• The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That’s probably enough to get this over the line. 

• On the 27th January, Dada Nexus (DADA US), a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from JD.com (9618 HK).
• JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, is offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. 
• DADA has formed a committee to evaluate the proposal. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 11.1% gross spread.

• The company  priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
• A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
• The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.

• Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Tripadvisor has been a frequent subject of acquisition speculation, with the latest developments adding fuel to the fire.
• Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings (OTCQB:LTRPA, LTRPB) recently disclosed a proposal from an undisclosed “Party 7” to acquire Tripadvisor and Liberty TripAdvisor.
• The bid, initially offered at $17.50 per share in October 2024, was later revised to $18-$19 per share in January 2025, representing a 14-21% premium over the current stock price.

• United Breweries resumed beer supplies in Telangana after earlier suspending them due to unprofitable pricing and unpaid dues.
• Resolution ensures vital revenues for both state and brewery, while highlighting persistent regulatory and pricing hurdles in India’s top beer market.
• This standoff reveals the leverage breweries hold in regulated regions, where strategic halts can push authorities toward fairer policies and improved business conditions.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $58 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
• We believe momentum (and full price, gift card driven selling) remained strong post Xmas and that the company has successfully pivoted to the key Valentine’s Day holiday with compelling newness and product excitement, driven by new offerings and services.
• As such, we view Build-A-Bear as a key Holiday winner and reiterate our Buy rating and $58 price target for BBW.

• Sacks Parente Golf (NASDAQ: SPGC) is an innovative, technology driven golf company with a growing portfolio of golf products, including putters, golf shafts, golf grips, and other golf-related accessories.
• The company went public in August 2023 raising $11.6 million in net proceeds.
• The company announced its entry into the golf shaft market in November 2023.

• The Brighton Pier Group Plc operates through four divisions: Brighton Palace Pier, Paradise Island Adventure Golf, Eclectic Bars, and Lightwater Valley Adventure.
• The Pier, established in the late 1800s, attracts over four million visitors annually and generates revenue through attractions, gaming machines, funfair rides, and food and beverage offerings.
• The Pier historically contributes over 40% of group revenue and EBITDA, with all upkeep costs recorded as operating expenses.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
• The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
• The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

• Lifestyle China (2136 HK)’s IFA opines that Mr Thomas Lau’s HK$0.98 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 20 February. 
• The IFA analysis is flawed. The revised and final offer is light compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
• The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk, mainly as retail seems firmly against the offer. The 14.0% gross spread is high but justified. 

• Gen Z consumers prioritize price over brand loyalty, affecting restaurateurs’ pricing strategies.
• Increasing platform dominance and discounting culture hinder profitability for restaurants in the competitive food delivery landscape.
• Food delivery companies are pivoting from mere consumer tech-enabled logistics businesses to data-driven market-dominant behemoths. 

• Consumers accused that Alibaba and JD.com took national consumption subsidies.
• Kuaishou’s new year sales GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 71%.
• Honor Smartphone CEO resigned largely due to the IPO plan.

• Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
• The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges. 
• The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. 

• Cosco Holdings’ stakes in Puregold Price Club and The Keepers Holding is worth US$1.1 billion, which is 176% higher than Cosco’s current market cap.
• Cosco Capital’s dividend yield and dividend payout have been increasing nicely in the past several years from 1.5% in 2021 to 3% in 2022 and 8.8% in 2023.
• We found Cosco Capital using Smartkarma’s Smartscore Screener. We used three criteria including market cap, dividend score of 4 or more, and total SmartScore of 4 or more.

• Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price. 
• Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
• Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time

• Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
• Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business.
• The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.

• On the 21st January 2025, WH Group (288 HK), the world’s largest pork producer, announced Smithfield had made a public filing of the “Preliminary Prospectus” with the SEC.
• A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. 
• Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.

• BCL Industries (BCLIL IN) is pivoting from volatile edible oils to a robust grain-based ethanol portfolio, leveraging its local sourcing advantage for upcoming capacity expansions.
• Government incentives and rising domestic demand are fueling higher margins, making BCL’s dedicated distilleries and fungible capacities key drivers in India’s booming ethanol sector.
• Its reliable execution, targeted capacity expansions, and pivot away from low-margin oils emphasize BCL’s potential as a high-growth, stable margin player in a rapidly evolving industry.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million, and Guming Holdings (GUM HK) seeks to raise US$300 million.
• Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK). 

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Auswide Bank (ABA AU), Pressance Corp (3254 JP). 

• Declining components from MSCI indexes will lead to less inflows from active as well as passive funds, and less transmission from the sell-side to global investors.
• Based on the assumption that the world’s top companies have grown in response to changes in the environment, Japanese companies may be relatively slow in making management decisions for growth.
• As benchmark adopters reduce their investments in Japanese equities, investors adopting investment strategies that are less concerned with benchmarks will have a greater presence than ever before.

• Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN), one of the largest Indian jewellery player, has been under the limelight for various allegations and misconducts, including possibility of inventory overstatement.
• In this insight, we try to look at the inventory from the forensic lens and uncover the disparity in accounting.
• We also note that operating cash flows are boosted by movement in metal loans while company also has several RPT with promoters, especially on the purchases side. 

• Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Santosa family at S$0.62 per share, a 34.8% premium, to the undisturbed price of S$0.460.
• While the offer is attractive compared to historical share price ranges, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples.
• The offer has not been declared final. However, the irrevocable, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership minimises the vote risk.  

• Netflix Inc. continues to demonstrate strong performance in the streaming industry, underpinned by significant subscriber growth and robust financial metrics.
• In the fourth quarter of 2024, Netflix reported an unprecedented net addition of 19 million subscribers, culminating in a total of 41 million new members for the year.
• This surge not only surpassed analyst expectations but also propelled the stock to a record high of $999, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.

• Two years after most Covid restrictions ended, pace of travel recovery has slowed, naturally
• Gov’t estimates ahead of LNY travel period seem tepid, actual growth could exceed them
• Trip.com has been stellar performer in segment, but in recent months airlines outperformed

• D.R. Horton, Inc., “America’s Builder,” reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 with results that underscore both strengths and challenges facing the company.
• Earnings came in at $2.61 per diluted share, a decrease from the $2.82 reported in the prior year.
• Despite the dip, the company generated consolidated revenues of $7.6 billion with consolidated pretax income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a pretax profit margin of 14.6%.

• Procter & Gamble’s latest quarterly results reflect a generally steady performance amid various external challenges, delivering organic sales growth, EPS improvement, and significant cash returns to shareholders.
• Organic sales grew by 3%, with contributions from volume and mix, while pricing remained consistent with the previous year.
• The company’s ability to overcome a two-week outage of a global transportation management system and still support strong customer orders highlights operational resilience.

• In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
• That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
• What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

• We expect JD.com C4Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI to be RMB337bn/9.7bn, 1.6%/6.5% above consensus, benefiting from trade-in subsidies and logistics;
• With 2025 having four quarters of trade-in subsidy vs. 2024’s one quarter and smartphone’s participation, JD.com is on solid growth footing in our universe. 
• We raised JD.com’s TP from US$50 to US$ 52 TP and maintain BUY rating.

• The company is seeking a market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b based on the $23-$27 range. 
• A high end pricing for Smithfield values the company at roughly 13.5x this year’s earnings, a sizable discount to comps Hormel Foods (about 21x) and Tyson Foods (26x).
• It is our opinion that the business model is well-rounded, resilient and stable with multiple-organic growth levers.

• Transaction valued at around US$701 million in cash proceeds
• Goodyear to hold ground in Europe until the end of 2025
• Goodyear joins Dutch research body TNO for crash mitigation

• Since dividend income and unrealized gains on ETFs have significant impact on BOJ’s finances, the sales of ETF will be discussed, considering BOJ’s overall balance sheet and income/expenses as well.
• There’re unexamined issues, whether the central bank’s purchase of stocks was really good thing, whether it distorted the secondary market, and whether management reforms were delayed by underpinning the stocks.
• BOJ can move on to the issue of ETF disposition when the impact of policy rate hikes is recognized and the market stabilizes, but until then the problems will persist.

• Noodles & Co is currently undervalued, presenting an opportunity for turnaround
• Despite past challenges, the restaurant chain is statistically cheap and attracting activist investors
• With potential catalysts and a focus on value, Noodles & Co may be poised for success in the current economic landscape

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
• In Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to competition and a sizeable pre-IPO dividend.

• DPC Dash is the master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in China, currently operating 768 stores
• Despite current lack of profitability, DPC Dash has potential to become second largest player in Chinese pizza market in four years
• Strong leadership team and focus on value for consumers position DPC Dash to capitalize on low number of pizza stores per population in China compared to other key markets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• VITL has experienced significant growth and impressive revenue growth in recent years
• Bears argue that the company’s growth is unsustainable and its valuation is anomalous
• Document suggests that shorts may need their theses to play out quickly or risk the company’s valuation doubling

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Noodles & Co has a stock price of $6.235 and stands to benefit from multiple catalysts
• These catalysts include forced selling upon removal from the Russell 2000 index and interest from activist investors
• Despite challenges in the restaurant industry, Noodles & Co has potential to bounce back and exceed expectations.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• 2024 was a forgettable year for White Brook Capital’s middle capitalization focused fund.
• Our fortunes have reversed so far in 2025 as several of our portfolio companies have preannounced 4th quarter results and given constructive 2025 guidance.
• We’ve had a good first 3 weeks of 2025 and are looking forward to a much better year.

• Darrell took over as interim CEO in August 2021 to stabilize the company and refocus on brand management and innovation.
• VFC announced a new growth strategy centered around digital transformation, sustainability, and innovation.
• The company plans to leverage its strong brand portfolio, expand globally, and enhance direct-to-consumer capabilities to improve financial performance and regain market share.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In this edition: • Shell | Executive Committee changes • Havas | buys Spanish sports marketing agency • Consumer confidence | declined for the 4th consecutive month

• Many companies have established policies on human capital but haven’t yet implemented specific measures. Solving issues related to human capital is an area in which Japanese companies lag far behind.
• With even the understanding of diversity within the company in jeopardy, it is unlikely to reach a solution to human rights in the supply chain.
• Japanese companies have traditionally been active in investing in goods, but have been reluctant to invest in people. Many companies need to start with an understanding of people.

• Revenues of P$13.8bn grew 3% YoY and were in line with our estimates.
• Both Consumer and Exports grew (3% and 7%, respectively), while Away from Home was flattish YoY.
• Margins were on average in line with our estimates, with EBITDA margin of 25.4% slightly below our expectations yet in line with target range of 25-27%.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $6 price target and slightly raising our projections after P180, a venture spearheaded by former Vince CEO Brendan Hoffman and Christine Hunsicker (founder of CaaStle, a “Clothing as a Service” provider), acquired Sun Capital’s 65% equity stake in VNCE and restructured and reduced Vince’s Third Lien Facility with an affiliate of Sun Capital.
• As such, Sun Capital has materially reduced their affiliation with the company.
• Further, Mr. Hoffman, who was previously Chief Executive Officer of Vince from 2015 to 2020 is expected to return as Vince CEO in February.

• Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high. 
• Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
• The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages. 
• Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.  

• TSE is likely to raise the current Growth Market listing criteria of at least 500 million yen in tradable equity market capitalization, probably starting in April 2026.
• Since listing examinations are already being conducted with the new criteria in mind, IPO reserves are being prepared with a larger market capitalization than before.
• It is unclear how much will be raised, but companies will prepare for listing by increasing its market capitalization through the use of the secondary market and M&A.

• LifeVantage’s initial inventory for the MindBody launch was 5x that of its last successful new product launch, which was Liquid Collagen in June 2022.
• Despite the much larger inventory build, the company sold out of MindBody in 13 days following its launch in mid-October.

• By mid-December, LifeVantage was able to get additional product in and began shipping it. 

• We expect inflation for the first half of January to be at 0.21%, again, due to an extraordinary reduction in agricultural prices.
• This fortnight, inflation is typically at 0.36% bw.
• The forecast of 0.21% bw is explained by the extraordinary reduction in agricultural products of -1.65% bw, versus the historical average of +0.48% bw.