Energy & Materials Sector

• Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
• The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. 
• Gina Rinehart, Lynas’ second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. 
• Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.

• There has been an increasing probability of the Hanwha Group selling its stake in Korea Zinc (010130 KS) mainly due to increasing burden of its petrochemical affiliates.
• For now, the Hanwha Group has denied all news regarding its potential sale of stake in Korea Zinc.
• In our view, the timing of this potential sale in Korea Zinc by Hanwha Group is less likely in 2025 but could occur in 2026/2027. 

• Two days after announcing its 2025 interims, Holcim (HOLN SW)-backed Huaxin Cement (6655 HK) proposed spinning off its overseas cement assets.
• The overseas ops, predominantly located in Africa, significantly outperformed the PRC ops in FY24, a trend that continued into 2025. 
• No preferred bourse was stipulated, although the HKEx appears the logical choice. Pegged to historical trading metrics, Huaxin appears fully valued here.

• ICLN has surged more than 35% since April, driven by record renewable generation, strong corporate earnings, and institutional inflows.
• Investors and banks are rotating capital from fossil fuels into clean energy, signalling structural shifts and fuelling the rise of solar and renewables.
• Global clean energy investment, led by solar, points to the early stages of a solar super cycle, positioning ICLN as a prime long-term play.

• Market Structure Signals Stability: Gold futures have remained range-bound near technical resistance, with intraday volatility compressing—suggesting a market more likely to drift than break.
• ETF and Vault Flows Show Steady Demand: Sustained inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust and consistent London vault holdings point to underlying investor interest, even without aggressive price action.
• Positioning Data Reveals Divergence: Commercial hedgers are easing short exposure while speculative players show mixed sentiment, hinting at a market caught between caution and latent bullishness.

• National Aluminium (NACL IN) has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.
• Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted “Maharatna” status by 2030.
• This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.

• Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
• Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
• Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.
• OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , BYD (1211 HK) , S&P/ASX 200 , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) 
• OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Nasdaq-100 , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

• On 29 August 2025, the company completed a Secondary Offering of $317m in which Abu Dhabi National Oil Company decreased its stake from 81% to 78%.
• A free float increase is expected to be implemented at the close of 2 September for Global All-World.
• Inclusion in Global Standard is projected for November 2025 following a float cap increase caused by the offering.

• Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.
• The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.
• Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.

• Major agencies now align on a possible consensus: the crude market is entering a phase of structural imbalance.
• Inventory builds and shifting producer strategies are setting the stage for a market environment not seen in years.
• Historical parallels suggest that the coming quarters may test price resilience more than recent memory.

• Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
• Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
• For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.

• I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Dongfeng (489 HK), Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJT IJ), Shengjing Bank (2066 HK), and HD Heavy (329180 KS)/HD Mipo (010620 KS). .
• Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), and Ashimori Industry (3526 JP).

• In a stunning geopolitical development, ExxonMobil has reportedly engaged in secret discussions with Rosneft—Russia’s largest state-owned energy company—regarding a potential return to the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project.
• These talks, led by Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman, signal a possible energy détente between Washington and Moscow, tied to broader negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
• The meetings were held under U.S. Treasury Department licenses that allow for discussions on stranded assets and involved back-channel diplomacy, including conversations between Exxon CEO Darren Woods and former President Donald Trump.

• Iron ore miners lift output guidance, signalling confidence despite China’s property slump and slowing steel demand.
• India emerges as a critical growth driver yet cannot offset China’s structural steel demand weakness.
• Rising supply from Simandou and peers heightens downside risk, keeping the iron ore outlook cautiously bearish.

• Avery Dennison Corporation, a global materials science and manufacturing company, reported its second quarter results ending June 28, 2025.
• The company delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.42, aligning with the previous year’s results.
• This performance was achieved amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, characterized by trade policy changes impacting its operations, especially within the apparel and retail sectors.

• Chinese miner MMG Ltd. saw a dramatic surge in output at its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru in the first half of this year, helped by its efforts to improve its rocky relationship with locals.
• In the six months through June, the mine produced about 210,000 tons of copper, up 67% year-on-year, with revenue from the project jumping 60% to $2 billion, according to the company’s latest earnings report.
• Las Bambas accounted for nearly three-fourths of MMG’s total first-half revenue, which rose 47% to $2.8 billion.

• In a strategic pivot aimed at expanding its foothold in specialty materials, Westlake Corporation recently announced its agreement to acquire the global compounding solutions businesses of the ACI/Perplastic Group.
• While the sum of the deal remains undisclosed, the implications are far-reaching.
• ACI, headquartered in Portugal, is a key manufacturer of compounds for the wire and cable industry, posting net sales of approximately €210 million in 2024.

• Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) shares are down 15.3% YTD and remains undervalued relative to peers. Asset optimisation, buybacks & dividends to drive its share prices higher.
• Firm has identified USD 1 billion in annual cost savings, with at least 50% expected to be realized in the second half of 2025.
• The company has reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns via USD 1 billion buyback and USD 1 billion through dividend payout.

• The Engineered Materials segment, driven by AI/5G-linked products like MicroThin™ and FaradFlex®, is poised for strong growth, offsetting near-term Metals segment weakness.
• A forward valuation of ~17× P/E and ~7.5× EV/EBITDA, supported by strong growth in MicroThin™ and the scaling of FaradFlex®, is broadly in line with peers.
• Key risks include metals price volatility, execution delays in FaradFlex®/MicroThin™ ramp-up, and intensifying competition from Asian copper foil and laminate producers.

Key points (machine generated)

• Trinseo has historically been viewed as a high-risk investment due to its troubled history and significant leverage.
• Recent improvements in its balance sheet and liquidity position, including over $450 million available through 2025, indicate a potential shift in investment outlook.
• The alignment of bid-ask expectations for asset sales suggests a positive recovery potential for Trinseo in the next 12-18 months.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) ‘s Birla Opus rolled out “Birla Opus Assurance”— India’s first 1-year free repainting program covering various defects.
• This is just another marketing technique, aimed at capturing market share from existing players. Because of the cut throat competition, other players are expected to launch similar programs.
• Ultimately, this would lead to higher warranty provisioning as well as higher A&P spends, thereby impacting the margins. But in long run, we expect warranty claims to be modest.

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise about US$570m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• The deal, a combination of a fresh issue and an offer for sale, will be run by Axis, HSBC, IIFL, JPM, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bob Caps and SBI Caps.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.

• June output rises MoM, but sharply lower YoY  
•  Exports declined 17.3%, with glove shipments softening  
• Price volatility intensified, underscoring demand uncertainty

• Journey is a JV partner with Spartan Delta in a large, contiguous acreage position near Gilby with 200 gross (60 net) well locations for future development.
• The JV drilled, completed, and brought online eight wells this summer.
• Early performance has exceeded Journey’s initial Duvernay type curve. (see Figures 1 and 2).

• Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies.
• This year, the company announced a shift from innovation to commercialization of key technologies, focusing on growth opportunities in low-carbon and sustainable products.
• GPRE is an early mover in ethanol carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). 

• Plains All American Pipeline reported a solid financial performance in their second quarter of 2025 with an adjusted EBITDA of $672 million attributable to the company.
• This performance was underpinned by growth in the Permian segment and contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions.
• However, the NGL segment experienced a sequential decline due to typical seasonal factors and lower frac spreads, reflected in a $87 million in adjusted EBITDA for that segment.

• Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAGP) reported solid financial performance for the second quarter of 2025.
• The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $672 million, driven by increased Permian volume growth and contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions.
• The second quarter saw a significant strategic decision with the execution of agreements to sell most of its Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) business in Canada to Keyera for $3.75 billion, set to close in early 2026.

• Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is looking to raise up to US$488m in a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 9.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 5.5% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• FY2024–25 results showed a sharp rebound, with Resources strength (copper, gold) more than offsetting Smelting losses.
• August FY2025 guidance raised PBT and dividend despite trimming sales and Smelting outlook, reflecting confidence in core earnings.
• EBITDA is set to grow ~6–7% over FY2025–27, leaving the stock inexpensive on P/E (~12x vs peers ~16x).

• China’s planned steel cuts may lift global prices, while India and Southeast Asia’s infrastructure demand sustains robust iron ore consumption.
• Managed money participants trimmed net long exposure to 18.5k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 0.8%.
• Bullish MA crossover and MACD confirm renewed buying interest and strengthen the case for higher near-term price momentum.

• MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025.
• The company has embarked on strategic partnerships with the Department of Defense (DoD) and Apple, marking a new chapter in its operational history.
• These partnerships serve as significant validations of MP Materials’ strategic mission and reflect substantial steps towards enhancing its supply chain capabilities and vertical integration.

• Martin Marietta, a leading supplier of building materials, demonstrated robust operational and financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, amid challenging weather and subdued residential demand.
• The company recorded several financial milestones, including an 8% year-over-year increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $630 million and a 35% EBITDA margin, up 170 basis points.
• Aggregates revenues rose by 6% to $1.32 billion, driven by sustained pricing momentum and effective cost management.

Nabaltec recorded subdued results in H125, due to an increasingly challenging market environment, with both revenue and EBIT decreasing 1.7% and 18.5% y-o-y, respectively, to €106.5m and €8.9m. Despite this, EBIT in Q225 rose 14.6% versus Q125, while revenue declined 5.3%. Management adjusted its FY25 guidance from 3–5% revenue growth to a decrease of up to 2%. This updated revenue guidance mirrors that of the chemical industry so far in 2025. However, Nabaltec reiterated its profit guidance for FY25, anticipating an EBIT margin of 7–9%, achieving 8.4% at H125 (FY24: 9.9%). We have, therefore, adjusted our FY25 estimates and valuation, while introducing FY26 estimates, to reflect both management’s guidance and the current environment in which Nabaltec operates. Our updated valuation for Nabaltec is €26.3 per share (down from €29.9/share), representing upside of around 99% to the current share price.

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s second-quarter 2025 financial results present an intricate blend of growth potential and challenges.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $1.013 billion, reflecting a 7% decline from the same period the previous year.
• Despite the downturn, Pembina remains optimistic about achieving its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion.

• Prospech Limited (ASX:PRS) is a junior explorer focused on the exploration and development of rare earths and copper-gold projects in Finland and Slovakia.
• The company’s flagship Korsnäs project is the most advanced with PRS growing the scale of the resource over the last year in addition to demonstrating promising, but early, minerology and metallurgical test work outcomes.
• With cash of ~$0.55m as of 30 June 2025, PRS appears to have funding to progress activities across the company’s portfolio of projects.

• Red Metal Limited (ASX:RDM) is a junior explorer with a suite of projects covering rare earths, copper and gold all of which are located within Australia.
• The company’s current flagship project is Sybella, which is a granite-hosted rare earths deposit located south-west of Mt Isa, Queensland.
• The company’s other projects are focused on copper and gold with several moving toward drilling over H2 2025.

• • 2Q25 production averaged 3,768 boe/d, impacted by water handling constraints and steeper-than-anticipated early declines at newly drilled wells.
• • Current WI production stands at ~4,200 boe/d, down from the July peak of 4,600–4,800 boe/d, which reflected initial flush output from AB-HZ5 and AB-HZ4.
• While first-month decline rates are steep, Arrow has observed that post-month-one declines are minimal.

• Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited(JIRI) raised around US$153m in its Hong Kong IPO.
• Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production began in April 2025, with full ramp-up expected by 2027
• We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

• CNRE (600111.SH) posted record H1 FY25 profits with strong production and margin gains.
• The company is ramping alloy, magnet, and separation capacity into 2026 to lift downstream integration.
• Shares have surged over 200% in 12 months, leaving valuations stretched and bubble-like.

• Exports to Indonesia surge 154% MoM in June  
• China drives monthly rubber trade rebound  
• Typhoon Kajiki disrupts supply and pushes up prices  

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Yuexiu Property, Xiaomi Corp, Nissan Motor
• The UST curve twisted steeper yesterday, as front-end yields declined on the back of a solid auction for 2Y notes. That said, long-dated yields ended higher, amid concerns over the US central bank’s independence after President Donald Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.68%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 1 bp at 4.26%.
• Equities climbed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up 0.4% at 6,466 and 21,544, respectively

• Zijin Mining delivered a strong H1 2025 with net profit up 55% YoY, comfortably ahead of guidance.
• We have raised FY25–27 earnings by 20–25%, with further upside optionality from the planned Zijin Gold spin-off.
• Trading at ~11.4x 2026E P/E and ~10.3x 2027F, with EV/EBITDA at 6.3x and 5.8x respectively, Zijin’s valuations remain undemanding—supporting a bullish, accumulate stance.

• Gevo is focused on making cost-effective, scalable, drop- in fuels and chemicals.
• These include low-carbon ethanol, synthetic aviation fuel (SAF), renewable natural gas (RNG), and other products.
• Gevo’s strategy is to have profitable and scalable carbon-abating operations that transform output, like corn, and ethanol from rural communities into products that satisfy significant global demand, like SAF. 

• FY2025 results marked Paladin’s return to production with solid revenues but a net loss driven by ramp‑up costs and one‑offs.
• Forecasts were revised lower to reflect a slower ramp and stickier costs, though profitability is expected from FY2026.
• Valuation looks stretched on earnings multiples but increasingly attractive on an EV/EBITDA basis as uranium prices rise.

• Provaris Energy Ltd (PV1.ASX) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
• Having announced a successful $1m raising through a placement (ASX:PV1 – Funding to Accelerate H2 and CO2 Commercialisation), the company is well placed to progress both of its compressed hydrogen and liquid CO2 (LCO2) projects through 2025.
• The next 6-12 months should see two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements become unconditional, completion of the construction, testing and certification of its proprietary hydrogen ‘storage tank’ design and its CO2 FEED evaluation in partnership with Yinson.

• • The SEM-01 well at South East MGH flowed 7–8 mmcf/d on test on 40/54” and 48/64” choke sizes.
• Further choke expansion was constrained by surface facility limitations.
• This follows the MGH-20 well at North MGH, which flowed at 2.8 mmcf/d on test.

• Last week, I spoke to the CFO of Unit Corp and wanted to share a brief update (full notes from my call below).

• The big surprise this quarter was that production GREW (+16% y/y in the quarter). I’ve become used to seeing 10% to 15% annual declines, and while management had guided that production would start to flatten out given increased drilling activity, it was still very nice to see.

• The company is in the process of drilling 2 net new wells this year and results have been quite strong.

• HD Hyundai Robotics will raise 200 billion won ($144 million) valuing the company at 1.8 trillion won.
• Korea Development Bank and KY PE will be investing 200 billion won in HD Hyundai Robotics through a redeemable convertible preference shares in September.
• Our NAV valuation analysis of HD Hyundai suggests target price of 168,561 won per share, which represents a 27% upside from current levels.

• Jio dominates telecom with 42% market share and 480M+ subscribers, driving India’s 5G revolution.
• Spans oil-chemicals, retail, digital services, renewable energy with vertical integration advantages across sectors.
• Targeting Net Carbon Zero by 2035 with 100 GW renewable capacity and world’s largest green energy ecosystem.

• U.S. LNG capacity is set to nearly double by 2028, reinforcing America’s dominance in global energy markets.
• Golden Pass LNG faces major delays due to contractor bankruptcy, highlighting execution risks in megaprojects.
• Most other projects, including Plaquemines, Rio Grande, and Port Arthur LNG, remain on or near schedule.

• Deep Industries has posted stellar Q1 FY26 results, fueled by aggressive revenue growth and a strengthened, diversified order book.
• The company’s strategic focus on high-value, long-tenure contracts and new business verticals positions it for sustained, high double digit growth in a supportive market.
• Company re-emphasized 30% revenue growth for the next year, along with potential recovery from bad assets.

• Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.
• Firm margins point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.
• Margins hold firm even with prospect of rise in surplus base oils supply in Asia in Q3 2025 in response to pick-up in output and slowdown in demand.

• Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE September 2025 rebalance.
• GLN is expected to enter the Top 40 index, with APN falling out.
• No changes are expected for the FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI indices.

• Cheniere Energy, Inc. reported its second-quarter results for 2025, highlighting a mix of operational achievements and strategic initiatives aimed at bolstering its position in the global LNG market.
• The company reported consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.4 billion, with distributable cash flow reaching around $920 million, and a net income of about $1.6 billion.
• These financial results reflect a robust operational performance, driven primarily by strategic initiatives and market conditions favorable to LNG trading activities.

• Canadian Natural Resources Limited’s (CNRL) second-quarter 2025 performance is characterized by strong operational outcomes and strategic acquisitions that contribute to the company’s long-term growth prospects.
• A key highlight is the company’s robust production capabilities, which saw 1.420 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) even with a five-day-early completion of a planned turnaround at Albian Sands, Alberta Oil Sands Project (AOSP), enhancing operational efficiencies.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Global base oils prices hold at levels versus feedstock and competing fuel prices that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.
• Margins hold firm even at time of year when surplus supply typically starts to build amid seasonal slowdown in demand.
• Firm margins could point to supply-demand fundamentals that are tighter than usual for time of year.

• Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Vital Energy (NASDAQ:VTLE), a deal that could significantly bolster its footprint in the Permian Basin—America’s most prolific oil-producing region.
• While the transaction is still under negotiation and not guaranteed, industry sources indicate a deal could be announced as soon as next week.
• Vital Energy, with a market cap of approximately $600 million and carrying $2.3 billion in long-term debt, has seen its stock jump over 7% on acquisition speculation, while Crescent dipped slightly.

• South Asian Monsoon to be active till Sept-end, may disrupt supply
•  Indian production to improve next month, can pressure prices
• Cambodia, Laos equipped to forecast floods five days in advance

• Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) is looking to raise upto US$152m via a primary placement of 40m shares. There is also a concurrent CB offering for ~HKD1.3bn along with the placement.
• The company intends to use the proceeds towards repayment of loans, capacity expansion and construction, replenishment of working capital and other general corporate purposes.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

This Week’s Key Take Aways

• Lithium stock run may already be out of steam
• Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing near-term weakness.
• No love for North American lumber
• Copper continues to have us on edge, love the long-term story, but we have got to survive the short and medium term to get there.
• Renewable tax credit qualification has a new physical work standard; the race is on to build.

• Texas Pacific Land Corporation’s latest quarterly performance demonstrates resilience amid significant fluctuations in oil prices, underscoring its strong positioning in the energy sector.
• For the second quarter of 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported consolidated total revenue of $188 million, experiencing a notable growth compared to previous periods despite challenging market conditions.
• A key highlight was setting quarterly revenue records for produced water royalties and easements, as well as other surface-related income, which indicates the company’s robust revenue diversification strategy.

• LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.
• In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.
• MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.

• Vikram Solar (0490158D IN) raised about US$238m in its India IPO.
• Vikram Solar is an integrated solar photo-voltaic modules producer and an integrated solar energy solutions provider offering engineering, procurement and construction services, and operations and maintenance services to its customers.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, JSW Infrastructure
• UST yields plummeted on Friday, led by the short end, as the market priced in greater rate-cut expectations after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalled openness (albeit he remained non-committal) towards interest-rate reductions.
• The UST curve bull steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 10 bps to 3.70%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 7 bps to 4.25%.

• Royal Gold, Inc. reported robust financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, achieving record revenue, earnings, and cash flow.
• Key figures from the quarter included earnings of $132 million, or $2.01 per share, with adjusted earnings excluding discrete tax items at $119 million, or $1.81 per share.
• Revenue reached $210 million, marking a 20% increase from the previous year.

• Jindal Stainless delivered solid Q1 FY26 performance with margin recovery, healthy domestic demand, and subsidiaries turning incrementally accretive.
• Management is guiding 9–10% volume CAGR with stable EBITDA/ton, supported by downstream capex, Chromeni ramp-up, and the Maharashtra greenfield project (Phase 1 by FY29–30).
• The stock trades at a premium (~11–12× EV/EBITDA, ~18–22× P/E forward) versus peers, implying confidence in earnings compounding but limited scope for re-rating.

• Q1 FY26 saw stable production but weaker volumes, with EBITDA/t surging 35% QoQ to ₹15,680 on coal savings and higher VAS mix.
• Capacity ramp-up to 15.9 MT by FY27, coupled with >70% VAS share, drives a strong ~40% PAT CAGR through FY29.
• Trades at 16.2× P/E and 9.2× EV/EBITDA (FY26E), offering upside potential versus JSW’s premium multiples.

• Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
• The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
• Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.

• Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
• We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
• Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.

• Context: The Woodside (WDS AU) vs. Yancoal (YAL AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: With Yancoal experiencing a sharp price drop after reporting earnings last week, the historically well-aligned price ratio has spiked, generating a trading signal.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• 2Q25 results. TMC reported its 2Q25 financials, that included slightly higher operating loss of $22M vs. $20.3M in year-ago period, as lower exploration and development activities were offset by higher consulting costs and increased share-based compensation.
• Cash on hand of $115.8M was up sharply vs. $3.5M in 2Q24 reflecting strategic investment by Korea Zinc.
• Solid cash position. Pro forma cash position of $120.7M includes $8.8M in proceeds from May RDO and exercised warrants and a repayment of $3.8M credit facility that took place in early July, 2025.

• Permian Resources’ second-quarter 2025 earnings reveal both strengths and challenges in the company’s current operational and strategic approach.
• A significant positive takeaway from Permian Resources’ performance is their robust operational execution, evident in achieving record low completion costs and the fastest well drilling in their history.
• Such efficiencies have enabled the company to revise their annual production guidance upwards, while reducing their capital expenditure guidance.

• Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
• As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
• We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends

• CF Industries’ first half and second quarter of 2025 financial results reveal a mixture of operational successes and broader market challenges.
• The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion for the first half, evidencing strong operational performance amidst a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
• CF Industries has successfully launched the Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Project, which began operations in July and is anticipated to generate significant returns due to tax benefits and low-carbon product premiums.

• Western Midstream Partners, LP reported record financial and operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, achieving the highest adjusted EBITDA in the company’s history.
• The Delaware Basin emerged as a significant contributor to this success, with record oil, gas, and water throughput driving increased adjusted gross margin.
• Operational expenses remained stable compared to the previous quarter due to internal cost optimization efforts, which are expected to further reduce costs in subsequent quarters.

• This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price. 
• With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton. 
• Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU) and Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU).
• Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), and Smart Share Global (EM US).

• Corteva Agriscience showed solid performance during the second quarter and first half of 2025.
• The company realized double-digit top and bottom line growth, improving its operating EBITDA margin by more than 200 basis points.
• These figures were bolstered by net improvements in pricing, volume, and cost efficiencies compared to the prior period.

• Energy Transfer’s performance in the second quarter of 2025 highlighted a balanced mixture of both positive momentum and areas of concern.
• The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 billion, a slight increase from $3.8 billion in the same period in 2024.
• The growth was fueled by record volumes across several areas, including midstream gathering, crude transportation, NGL transportation, and export volumes, as well as robust usage of NGL fractionators and natural gas pipelines.

• A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
• In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.

• Nutrien’s second-quarter 2025 financial results reflect a strong operational performance and progress toward its strategic goals, with a notable increase in fertilizer sales volumes and improved cost management.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA rose by 11% to $2.5 billion from the previous year, while cash flow from operations surged by 40%.
• This was driven by advancements in potash and nitrogen operations and strategic initiatives across its portfolio.

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation (Occidental) has demonstrated mixed financial and operational results in the second quarter of 2025.
• The company reported a commendable operating cash flow of $2.6 billion despite facing headwinds from lower oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaging $11 per barrel less in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year.
• This resilience allowed Occidental to not only generate more cash flow in the first half of 2025 than in the same period of 2024 but also to make substantial progress in debt reduction efforts.