Energy & Materials Sector

• During the public hearing, Lee Jae-myung asked Simpac’s CFO about their 0.3x PBR, then remarked, “That’s prime territory for a hostile M&A.”
• With PBRs under 0.3x, these companies may roll out shareholder returns to manage political pressure—definitely worth tracking from a value-up trading perspective.
• Hanwha is interesting due to its room for shareholder returns and potential merger with Hanwha Energy. With the new Commercial Act, a public tender offer is likely. Worth watching closely.

• RaaS has published a flash comment on NT-focused gas explorer/producer Empire Energy Group (ASX:EEG) following the recently released findings of the Independent Expert Scientific Committee (IESC) on unconventional gas in the Beetaloo which has assessed the potential environmental impact and risk on water resources to be ‘minor’ if appropriate mitigation strategies are implemented.
• The article published on the NT News website, also references comments from the Federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCEEW) which concluded that exploration work (to date) did not meet the legal threshold of being a matter of national environmental significance to be assessed under national environmental law.
• In our view, these findings from both assessments are positive for operators with respect to current gas development plans and potential future phases of gas expansion.

• During the lunch break, Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)  announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions – the final approvals concerned outbound direct investments.
• The Offer Document, including the IFA opinion, is expected to be dispatched  in seven days – or 27th December, at which time, the Offer will be open to acceptances.
• Evidently the Jeff Bi/Gong Hong MGO isn’t materialising any time soon. Provided the IFA is supportive – and that should now be known – management should unanimously back XJF’s Offer.

• The First Huarui Offer Closing Date is Jan.10 2025. The latest time/date by which the Huarui Offer can become or be declared unconditional as to acceptances is 18 February 2025.
• China Foods once chose to side with Baosteel – They are both SOEs.Although regulatory agencies have given the green light, it’s still unclear if China Foods will accept Huarui Offer.
• The “key variable” is Zhang Wei’s attitude. Investors can choose bet on it.It would be wise for arbitrageurs to wait until Zhang Wei makes his move before making a decision.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green
• In the US, the third estimate for Q3/24 annualised GDP was revised upwards to 3.1% q-o-q (from 2.8% in the first and second estimates). Q3 personal consumption was raised to 3.7% (3.6% e / 3.5% p), and the core PCE price index to 2.2% (2.1% e / 2.1% p). Separately, November existing home sales grew at a quicker pace than expected at 4.8% m-o-m (3.2% e / 3.4% p) to 4.15 mn units, the most since March.
• Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% to 99.7 in November, nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October.

• Widespread caution around Chinese buying sentiment 
• Weakness in Yuan can pose significant challenge
• Trade data not very optimistic

• Continuum Green Energy Ltd (1580973D IN) is looking to raise about US$430m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, Ambit, Citi and JM Fin.
• Continuum Green Energy Limited is an independent power producer with over 14 years of experience in identifying, developing, constructing and operating renewable energy projects in India.
• It acquired its first 16.50 MW wind project in 2010 and has grown its portfolio to a total operational and under-construction capacity of 3.52 GWp, as of Dec 9, 2024.

• The TGT and CNV licenses in Vietnam have been extended by five years, to December 2031 and December 2032, respectively.
• In return, Pharos’ working interest in the licenses is reduced from 30.5% to 25.3% for TGT and from 25% to 20% for CNV.
• This extension is significant for Pharos as it unlocks approximately 5.7 mmboe of resources and immediately adds 0.8 mmboe of 2P reserves.

• At a 1.5% gross spread to terms, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is trading with completion is mind after the last pre-condition – SAFE – was satisfied on the 13th December. 
• The Offer Doc is now out and the transaction is open for acceptances. The First Close is the 10th January. 
• I’d expect this deal to turn unconditional on or before the First Close, with payment around the 20th January.  

• KCP Ltd (KCPL IN) is available at a significant discount due to underperformance and margin deterioration.
• The sugar sector is performing well due to higher realization and higher sugar cultivation. 
• The company is poised for a high valuation if it demerges or sale its cement business, which is a big drag in the overall valuation. 

• For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.

• Gulf Marine Services provides support vessels to the oil & gas industry in the Middle East
• The company serves clients such as ADNOC and ARAMCO for platform operations and maintenance work
• Strong connections with ADNOC and cost-effective vessels offer potential for significant growth

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• We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector.
• Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation.
• Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.

• Sealed Air is undervalued and poised for a turnaround, with a price target of $49 per share
• The Protective segment has been underperforming due to ties to the PC market and economic indicators
• Sum-of-parts valuation method used, with different multiples applied to Protective and Food segments, indicating significant upside potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
• Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
• Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

• Zephyr has now entered into binding documentation to fully-fund all expected drilling, completion and production test costs for the 5,500 ft extension and acidization of the State 36-2R well.
• The funding has increased to US$7.5 mm (US$7.0 mm previously).
• In return, the funding partner will earn a 50% WI in the well.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | three potential bidders for Akzo Nobel India • Unilever | agreement to sell Unox and Zwan to Zwanenberg Food Group • InPost | beats Polish peers with cut-off moment for Christmas Eve delivery

• Production in Uzbekistan in December to date has averaged 11,354 boe/d.
• Adjusting for one day of shutdown implies a production capacity of almost 12 mboe/d.
• The average production in December to date (11,354 boe/d) represents an increase of over 600 boe/d compared to the latest announcement (10,706 boe/d from 5 November to 11 November) and 1,344 boe/d compared to the 3Q24 average production.

• Kauntam Papers (KAUN IN) is implementing a significant capacity expansion project, estimated to increase production capacity by 50% within 18 months. Total Capex: 735Cr, including debt of Rs. 535 crore.
• Despite recent industry challenges, Kuantum Papers maintained a healthy EBITDA margin of approximately 22% Q2FY25. The company expects improved margins with anticipated demand increases and raw material price stabilization.
• Under Project NIRMAN, focused on Industry 4.0 integration, the company has successfully implemented online sensors and control logic in its wood bleach section, improving automation and efficiency.

• Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently had a decent move when it reported strong 3Q 2024 earnings in November. Despite that, it trades at a 12% dividend yield (65% payout).
• In our last insight, we flagged an increase in mine life to 19 years (vs 14 years), further clarifying high-margin cash flows for longer. 
• The company has 926 mn USD in net cash, ~50% of its market capitalization, and is trading at 5.5x PE (assuming 350 mn USD profits vs. 9MFY24 273 mn USD).

• • QatarEnergy has acquired 27.5% WI in PEL 90 from Chevron.
• While no details have been disclosed, it’s noteworthy that QatarEnergy is a partner of TotalEnergies on the adjacent PEL 56 license, where the Venus discovery is located.
• QatarEnergy is also a partner of Shell on PEL 39.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).
• Energy Technology (13.4% of the index) was down 4.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was down 1.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.6%.
• Top 10 Performers: DCFC, GWTI, AMMP, AVL, LOOP, INVZ, WAVE, REE, SPI, PNPN

Almost exactly half way through its financial year, Pan African has reiterated its production guidance for FY25 of 215,000oz – not least as a result of c 9,000oz gold produced at MTR in H125 following a seamless ramp-up process that has proceeded ahead of schedule since commissioning in early October. As a consequence, we have revised our production expectations for FY25 up by 3,130oz (1.5%), although we have revised our normalised headline EPS (HEPS) expectations down by a modest 4.2% to reflect lower margin initial start-up production supplanting established, steady-state production from Evander and Barberton and the recent 3.0% strengthening of the rand against the US dollar. Note that production in H225 is expected to be 44.6%, or 38,590oz, higher than in H125. Guidance for FY26 was exactly in line with our prior expectations.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vedanta Resources, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal
• In the US, November advance retail sales came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.5% revised p), bolstered by a jump in car purchases and solid online shopping during Black Friday.
• That said, retail sales excluding auto slowed to 0.2% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.2% revised p). Separately, November industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% m-o-m (0.3% e / -0.4% p), the third straight month of decline, owing to weaker utilities and mining output.

• Today, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a second buyback this year (first ¥100bn was announced in May, buying back 16.695mm shs (0.83%). This time, ~¥94bn via Own-Share Tender Offer.
• Three non-life insurers and two banks who together hold 6+% will sell a total of ~1.01% at ~10% below last. They will then sell the rest of their shares later.
• Cute, but not enough. Shin-Etsu is cash-rich, securities-rich, receivables and inventory-rich. And nearly ¥1trln of EBITDA. They are a key part of the tech infrastructure. They can borrow.

• Rio doubles down on lithium investment in Rincon, with a US $2.5 billion expansion plan
• BHP and Rio have historically had differing views on commodities, with examples in Potash, aluminium, and mineral sands
• Rincon project aims to expand production to 60,000 tonnes per annum, with heavy reliance on DLE technology for extraction and processing

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• US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.

• The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well has encountered four main hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs with a total true vertical depth of 121 feet, including the C7, Gacheta, Guadalupe, and Ubaque formations.
• The main pre-drill targets were the C7 and the Ubaque formations.
• The Gacheta and Guadalupe formations carried a higher risk, and encountering these two formations is a positive.

• PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (BUMA) is a holding company with an operational entity, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, which is one of the largest coal-mining contractors in Indonesia by production volume.
• Its two other subsidiaries, PT Banyubiru Sakti and PT Pulau Mutiara Persada, are non-active entities which held coal exploration permits.
• Formerly a textile business, BUMA was transformed into a real estate company in 2008 following the sale of the erstwhile business. 

• Crude Oil (CL1) has been steadily downtrending since June 2022. More recently (from the start of October) a flat bottom started to form, with attempts to rise higher.
• The front-month future (Feb25) is range bound at the moment, between 71 (top) and 66 (bottom).
• Our models see a strong barrier at 73, and a decent support at 67 for the next 2 weeks, check the insight to get all the details.

• What you need to know: • Trigon provided an update on the previously proposed acquisition of the Kombat Mine by Horizon Corporation.
• • Subject to final negotiation and approvals, the acquisition will consist of $30M plus between $10-20M in additional payments based on specific operational milestones.
• • TM also announced it has signed a binding loan agreement with Horizon for up to $5M to allow for the project to continue to advance.

• The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.
• Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.
• Asian Paints’ current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.

• The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged at 589 for the week ending on 13/Dec, after rising by seven the previous week.
• For the week ending 06/Dec, US oil production rose to a new high of 13.63m bpd from 13.50m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active US oil rigs was steady at 482, while the US gas rig count rose by one to 103.

• In a recent special call arranged by the management, Exxon Mobil has unveiled an ambitious strategy that could reshape its future and redefine its standing in the energy sector.
• Despite concerns about falling oil prices and industry-wide cautious spending, Exxon is doubling down on capital-intensive projects while expanding into emerging markets like carbon capture, hydrogen production, and advanced battery materials.
• The company’s bold moves include acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion, ramping up investments in the Permian Basin, and launching data-center-specific natural gas projects equipped with carbon capture technology.

• Algoma Central Corporation operates in three main segments: Inland Shipping, Ocean Shipping, and Product Tankers
• Inland Shipping serves customers in industries such as steel, cement, agriculture, and construction
• Algoma’s diversified operations in shipping make it an attractive investment opportunity for smaller accounts looking for undervalued stocks with growth potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• WTI futures rose 6.1% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by China’s policy easing plans and supply concerns from sanctions on Russia and Iran.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell 1.15 from 1.24 (06/Dec) last week, as call volume rose by 21.7% WoW while put volume increased by 12.6%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.85 from 0.88 last week. Call OI rose by 7.0% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

• Petrobras ADR (PBR) is a long-term investment opportunity for patient income-driven investors
• Petrobras is one of the world’s largest oil companies with a market capitalization of $89 billion and total hydrocarbon production of 2.8MMbpd
• Despite facing challenges over the past 20 years, including the Car Wash scandal, Petrobras has implemented changes and reforms, making it a potentially attractive investment for the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
• For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
• Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and >30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 

• January-October 2024 exports yield US$2.54 billion, up 17% YoY
• 405% rise in value YoY in exports to Malaysia during Jan-Oct 2024
• Michelin plans to source rice husks from Vietnam for tire-making

• SOC lacks the necessary permits to begin production by the end of 2024 after the California Coastal Commission held its final meeting of the year.  
• SOC has been guiding for Q4 2024 as the start date of its operations. We do not believe this possibility exists with approximately two weeks left in the year. 
• SOC has experienced meaningful setbacks that are likely to lead to a long process of nothing occurring.

• Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. 
• Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.
• Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.

• De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Resources ETF (MVR AU) in December.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.4% and in a round-trip trade of A$63m.
• De Grey Mining will be acquired by Northern Star Resources in the first half of 2025. The passive buying could push De Grey Mining higher in the short-term.

• No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.

• The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)’s IFA opines that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK)’s HK$0.85 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 January. 
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
• The Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers, which hold a blocking stake, should support the transaction. At the last close and for the 6 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.7%/22.2%.

• Back on the 28th October, SOE Beijing Capital Group launched an Offer by way of a Scheme for Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) (BCG), a commercial property developer in China.
• The Cancellation Price of HK$0.85/Share (best & final) was a 46.55% premium to undisturbed. Irrevocables were secured from 8.13% of the 37.92% held by disinterested shareholders. This looked done. 
• The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting to be held on the 10th Jan. Expected payment on or before the 6th Feb. IFA says fair & reasonable.

• China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
• Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
• We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 

• My conversation with the FA earlier this week largely put to rest a number of concerns, specifically on regulatory approvals, surrounding the Offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK). 
• As announced on the 13th December, the last pre-condition, SAFE, has been satisfied. All pre-cons have been fulfilled.  The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or before the 20th December
• This could turn unconditional before year-end, depending on whether Zhang Wei promptly tenders. Expect the share price to trade tight (er) to terms Monday morning.

• The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, Sino Biopharmaceutical are the “main force” and their performance would be affected.
• WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.
• Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf’s Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) will be deleted from the index.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of US$37m.
• The largest inflows will be in Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) and Tronox Holdings (TROX US). 

• Cheniere Energy reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting solid business performance and opportunities as well as challenges within the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.
• The company highlighted key accomplishments, including robust financial metrics, increased guidance for the year, and advancements in their long-term projects.
• Cheniere generated approximately $1.5 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, with distributable cash flow at around $820 million and net income at approximately $900 million for the third quarter.

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial performance demonstrates a strong positioning within the midstream sector, bolstered by strategic acquisitions and expanding operations.
• Adjusted EBITDA stood at approximately $1.019 billion, reflecting consistency with the previous year despite market headwinds.
• Additionally, the company’s adjusted cash flow from operations totaled $724 million, or $1.25 per share.

• ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has received SAFE approval. Therefore, the precondition is satisfied. 
• The offer and response document will be despatched by 20 December and 3 January 2025, respectively. The Board will recommend the offer. 
• The offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and late-January 2025 payment, the gross/annualized spread was 7.3%/88.0%.

• OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.
• The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.
• The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.

• For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.

• 79% of ELTs consumed by end-use markets, up 10.5%
• Tire-derived fuel tops ELT use, followed by ground rubber
• Sumitomo Rubber USA announces closing of Buffalo plant

• OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economics
• Focus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital structure, equity thesis, credit thesis
• Multiple disposal transactions in past 10 months, including sale of businesses and retaining European nitrogen business

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
• The PPI (final demand) came in at 3.0% y-o-y in November (2.6% e / 2.6% p), while core PPI (final demand) stood at 3.4% (3.2% e / 3.4% p).
• US Treasuries were sold off for the second consecutive day, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps across the curve.

• Ocean Power Technologies has secured a new partnership in Latin America with $3 million in purchase order commitments over three years.
• This new agreement adds to a previous $1.5 million order, bringing the total to $4.5 million.
• The partnership will involve the deployment of OPT’s WAM-V unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) for hydrographic applications and other diverse tasks.

• The Mopane-2A appraisal well (the 4th well to be drilled at Mopane) has been spud.
• The purpose of the well is to appraise the AVO-3 that had been discovered at Mopane-2X located ~8km to the northeast.
• This appraisal well has been prioritized following the Mopane-1A success.

• Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn’t exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
• But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
• The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.

• Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported third quarter earnings per share of $1.87 with a refining utilization rate of 94%.
• The company continues to deliver solid performance in its refining and marketing (R&M) segment, boasting a 96% capture rate, a 2% improvement quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong commercial performance.
• The refining operating costs were at $5.30 per barrel, a slight increase primarily due to decreased throughputs and higher project expenses linked to intensified turnaround activity.

• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) exhibited robust financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, showcasing a significant upward trend across its business units.
• IFF achieved a notable growth in revenue, surpassing $2.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase on a comparable, currency-neutral basis.
• This growth was driven by high single-digit to double-digit volume improvements across various segments, notably in the Nourish, Health & Biosciences, Scent, and Pharma Solutions units.

• The Williams Companies recently reported their third-quarter performance for 2024, showing a series of strategic moves and expansions that have strengthened their position within the natural gas sector.
• The company announced another record quarter of adjusted EBITDA, significantly fueled by expansions in natural gas transportation and acquisitions, particularly in the Gulf Coast region.
• This achievement came despite challenges from low natural gas prices and adverse weather, notably a harsh hurricane season.

• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
• We should not assign a high probability to the asset’s resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
• The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama’s optionality makes it attractive.

• Devon Energy’s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with key operational achievements alongside areas needing attention.
• On the positive side, Devon recorded strong production numbers, achieving an all-time quarterly high of 728,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• This figure reflects a 12% year-over-year growth on a production-per-share basis, surpassing guidance for the current year and resulting in upward revisions to the company’s full-year production assumptions.

• Chevron Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial headwinds.
• The company reported earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share, with adjusted earnings similarly at $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share.
• Despite these substantial earnings, this marked a decrease from the prior year largely due to lower liquids realizations and increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), particularly at the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project in Kazakhstan.

• Serica is acquiring the UK assets of the Parkmead Group for an initial consideration US$6.5 mm in cash.
• The transaction includes 50% WI in the Skerryvore prospect (Serica already owns 20%) and 50% in Fynn Beauly (heavy oil discovery).
• An additional deferred consideration of US$11.7 mm will be paid in stages over the next 3 years.

• Wheaton Precious Metals reported its third-quarter results for 2024, demonstrating notable operational and financial metrics.
• The highlights included record quarterly operating cash flows of $254 million and robust production levels from its portfolio, consisting of long-life, low-cost mining assets.
• The reported production for the year to date was approximately 450,000 gold equivalent ounces, with the company on track to meet its annual production guidance ranging between 550,000 and 620,000 gold equivalent ounces.

• What you need to know: • ADF reported Q3 financial results that were in line with our expectations on revenue and beat our expectations on EBITDA.
• • Revenue came in at $80.0M (-3% YoY) vs. our $80.4M and EBITDA came in at $24.0M (+35% YoY) vs. our $19.0M.
• • While the impact of the Trump victory and tariffs is still uncertain, management remains positive on its end markets and backlog.