Financials

• CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)  is looking to raise at least S$500M in a private placement, to fund the acquisition of some valuable properties. 
• These acquisitions will expand the firm’s portfolio exposure to Singapore and data centers.
• In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Concerns about US fiscal policy have pushed term premium higher in the US, leading to a steeper yield curve globally.
• US-China tariff de-escalation and improved sentiment have reduced recession risks in the US, leading to higher GDP forecasts and reduced easing expectations from central banks.
• In Sweden, GDP forecasts have been revised higher, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected from the Riksbank in June. Opportunities in Sweden include cautious long positions in duration.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed firm modelling itself after MicroStrategy, continues to rapidly expand its Bitcoin holdings.
• For now, equity markets are playing along. Metaplanet’s share price has surged 30% in the past week
• But with the firm trading at nearly 6x its net asset value, market enthusiasm looks stretched

• Samsung C&T must give up control of Samsung Life if it goes holdco—market expects a spin-off to form a new financial holdco to retain group structure.
• Rerating momentum is building as Samsung C&T and Life gain from governance and credibility boosts, with the BioLogics spin-off hinting at early, proactive restructuring moves by the group.
• Locals focus on Samsung C&T and Life for momentum trades, sidelining BioLogics; this trend will likely intensify post-June 3 election, shaping key market dynamics to watch.

• We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.
• Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term
• We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.

• The BBVA-Sabadell takeover deal has been elevated to the Council of Ministers for review, making political risk central despite both EU and CNMC’s (antitrust) clearance.
• Spanish government’s minority status makes it vulnerable to Catalan pressure opposing the deal.
• Gross spread of -6.2% signals market skepticism or expectation of a sweetened offer.

• Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL) reported FY 2024 and Q1/25 results that were moderately weak in our view.
• EBITDA continued to grow, supported by top-line and margin expansion.
• That said, cash flows remained poor, as OCF (after tax and interest) remained negative in FY 2024.

• We apply our weighted scorecard with metrics adapted for the EM neobanks; Kakaobank screens best whilst Bank Jago is the bottom marker
• Despite this, we believe that the most compelling investment ideas are in Brazilian neobanks in the form of a pairs trade, and we add qualitative factors to the investment thesis
• We recommend a long on Inter, the second best rated neobank on the scorecard, against a short on Nubank, the latter having the second worst rating on the scorecard

• Via 49.9%-held MPIC, First Pacific Co (142 HK) is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange
• Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) and Marubeni Corp (8002 JP). Listing is expected in July.
• I see First Pac’s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. 

• It has been a sport of the J-REITs the past 18-24mos to buy back their units at well under PNAV 1.0x and to have sponsor entities up their stakes. 
• The goal? Get valuation to PNAV1+ so they can, in good faith, get the REIT to buy assets with an equity raise. Below PNAV1 would work with a rights offering.
• Now the Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP) has announced it will triple its small holding. Meaningful portion of ADV, more meaningful portion of MRWF.

• May is a result season, and hence, very few companies that are out of their silent period are eligible to permit insider trading activity
• Sectors with notable activity include real estate, financials, media and renewable energy.
• Most of these stocks are close to same price levels where the insider purchases happened.

• Atour (ATAT) delivered a steady C1Q25 with revenue (3.9%)/1.6% vs. our est./cons., and non-GAAP operating profit (5.0%)/5.5% vs. our est./cons.;
• We see catalysts from the “low-before-high” RevPAR trend, legacy hotel renewals and retail profitability improvement.
• We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and reiterate as travel sector TOP BUY

• Beike’s (BEKE) C1Q25 rev. beat our est./cons. by 4.6%/4.0% and non-GAAP NI beat est./cons. by 18%/25%, due to scale effect and cost savings;
• The near-term negative is that US-China trade truce reducing the possibility of large-scale stimulus on real estate. The near-term positive is margin expansion. 
• We keep rating and TP unchanged. We see the US$1.2bn (5.0% market value) shareholder return commitment in 2025 as a major positive.

• After Goldlion (533 HK)‘s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
• Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill’s Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
• Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• Today is the base date for the final ranks and we see five ADDs and five DELs.
• We estimate one-way flow to be around US$2.55bn with multiple expected ADDs having 10x ADV or more to trade.

• Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
• It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
• In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

• UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.
• Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.
• UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.

• Solid execution despite macro volatility impact – FY3/25 results were positive, driven by strong performance at the GCL business, a direct result of Lifenet’s partnership strategy.
• Despite solid execution in FY3/25, the Comprehensive Equity Per Share growth of +4.5% YoY was well below the Company’s FY3/29 target of +10.0% annual growth due to macroeconomic volatility, highlighting the need for investors to focus on the longer term.
• Looking beyond the FY3/26 guidance, we think Lifenet is well-positioned to deliver longer-term growth with a new technology-oriented CEO, a renewed commitment to accelerating growth at the individual life business, and upside from its partnership-focused growth strategy.

• Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a net outflow of S$65 million, totaling S$1.73 billion for 2025.
• Financial Services and REITs saw the highest net institutional outflow, while Industrials and Real Estate (Ex-REITs) had inflow.
• Share buybacks totaled S$67.6 million, with significant transactions by Hongkong Land and ESR-REIT.

• Shareholders of both firms have approved the merger, clearing a critical milestone ahead of expected regulatory clearance by late Q3 2025.
• CHF 400m in net synergies and potential capital optimization could lift 2028 ROE to nearly 16%, offering meaningful value creation.
• I recommend a long Baloise / short Helvetia strategy to capture the current 1.2% spread, translating to an estimated 3.4% annualized return.

• Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.
• Unlike the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.
• Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.

• Markets are still active, with major moves in rates and currency
• There are conflicting signals in the bond market, with concerns over inflation and the economy slowing down
• Steven Englander from Standard Chartered discusses the dynamics of JGB and UST yields

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• SLR reform is a high priority for US banking regulators, with potential changes to how Treasuries are calculated
• The timeline for SLR reform is still in the early stages, with regulatory processes and personnel confirmations needing to be completed first
• Potential scenarios for SLR reform include carving out reserves and dealer holdings of Treasuries from the SLR denominator to address liquidity and market functioning concerns

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Schloss Bangalore’s Rs3,500 crore IPO includes a Rs2,500 crore fresh issue largely earmarked for debt repayment, with limited allocation toward growth investments.
• The company operates 13 ultra-luxury hotels under The Leela brand, delivering premium ARR and F&B-led revenue, but with relatively modest scale versus larger peers.
• While expansion plans are underway with 678 new keys by FY28, the IPO is priced at a rich ~12x EV/Sales—significantly above Oberoi’s ~8x, despite being half its size.

• The Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000815 KS) vs. Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) Price-Ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, highlighting a potential tactical opportunity.
• Statistical and fundamental arguments are provided for and against a relative value trade in this pair that derives from two different industries.
• Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

• KKR & Co. Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 results, showcasing a robust performance and strategic initiatives.
• The fee-related earnings per share increased to $0.92, marking a 22% rise year-over-year, while total operating earnings per share climbed 16% to $1.24.
• Adjusted net income per share noted a 19% uptick to $1.15.

• AZN demonstrated continued positive growth momentum in Q1 FY12/25, with sustained strength in the Wealth Consulting business and ADVANTAGE CLUB formations.
• While operating profit was impacted by integration costs and business investments in the form of higher personnel costs and SG&A, we believe these investments will enhance the company’s position to monetize Japan’s demographic and wealth transfer megatrend.
• We think the company remains on track to meet its FY12/25 targets and deliver longer term growth.

Picton announced FY25 results, reporting post-tax profits of £37.3m, a TAR of 8.1% and a 2.7% dividend increase to 3.8p per share, representing the fifth consecutive annual increase since 2020. The dividend uplift is underpinned by 5% growth in EPRA earnings to £22.8m (4.2p per share), maintaining robust dividend cover of 113%. This demonstrates management’s ability to deliver earnings growth despite challenging market conditions, with improved occupancy to 94% and successful rental negotiations achieving 7–10% uplifts on lettings and renewals. Earnings quality is enhanced by the focus on industrial assets, which now comprise 64% of the portfolio and delivered 8.1% contracted rent growth, positioning Picton to benefit from the resilient logistics sector.

• Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Tejon Ranch (TRC)

• Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) has demonstrated a notable performance in the first quarter of 2025, achieving record revenues of $2.5 billion, a notable 8% increase year-over-year.
• This expansion was coupled with a 16% rise in earnings per share (EPS) to $1.72, thanks to strategic growth across its diverse operating segments despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
• However, the results also present challenges such as increased operating expenses driven by currency fluctuations and increased personnel-related costs, potentially constraining future profitability margins.

• The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
• Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
• The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

• Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
• It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates.

• The Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• While one of the two companies displays higher revenue growth, the valuation might begin to become stretched. Fundamental key figures are provided to complement the statistical analysis.
• Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

• Paradigm REIT (PR) is looking to raise about US$131m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by Maybank, AmInvestment Bank, and CGS International.
• PR offers stable exposure to well-located retail assets with high occupancy and steady rental growth.
• While lease expiry risks and tenant concentration are concerns, current valuation at 17.4x FY25E P/E and 5.7% yield appears fair, given its higher occupancy and lower gearing than peers.

• CARE Ratings achieved its highest-ever standalone and consolidated income and profitability in FY25, significantly improving margins across the group.
• The results validate the effectiveness of the company’s quality-led growth strategy, operational efficiencies, and strategic investments in non-ratings and international businesses.
• The performance reinforces confidence in Care’s ability to outpace the industry and achieve its diversification targets, supported by strong execution and market positioning.

• Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?
• While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.
• With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there

• With 53 million users, a shiny new UK banking license, and IPO buzz building, now feels like a good moment to take a closer look.
• Revolut’s on track to become one of the world’s most valuable neobanks. Based on a $45 billion valuation, its implied PER is 28x, thanks to expected strong growth rates.
• Assuming revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2030 tapering from 50% to 10%,  a simple DCF makes the $45 billion valuation look rich.

• Indusind Bank (IIB IN) released their Q4 and FY25 results, which highlighted further episodes of bizarre accounting plays. 
• The cumulative impact of material accounting adjustments was INR 26 bn, enough to engulf profits by 50% for the year. 
• Noting the same, management and auditors, which were left blindfolded, suggested a possible fraud committed against the bank.

• The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigation could prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business.
• Future revenue looks​ weak for this “dinosaur” of a payments-processing company.
• Marqeta (MQ) is (mostly) a payment processor. MQ helps fintechs host their own payments tools by contracting with a Banking as a Service (BaaS) partner bank to manage client deposits. 

• In 2025, Singapore’s Industrials sector saw increased trading activity, with over one-third experiencing over 50% ADT growth.
• ST Engineering led the STI in performance, supported by diversified revenue streams and investments in digital technologies.
• OKP Holdings reported a 95% share price gain, driven by technology integration, productivity boosts, and geographical diversification.

• Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
• Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. 
• I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal – it’s weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank

• ESR Group (1821 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$13.00 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 13 June. 
• Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
• This is a done deal due to the substantial irrevocables. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/9.12%.

• The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• The relative value opportunity has a target return of approximately 6% and can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

• Indusind Bank (IIB IN) faces significant accounting discrepancies, leadership resignations, and suspicions of fraud, with the bank announcing a net loss of Rs 2,329Crs in Q4 FY25 due to this.
• The escalating situation, involving fraud suspicions and leadership resignations, raises concerns about the bank’s internal controls, financial reporting, and governance.
• IndusInd Bank’s path forward hinges on transparent investigations, fixing internal control systems, and restoring leadership accountability. Investors should closely monitor the regulatory response and management’s corrective actions.

• On the 4th December 2024, the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
• There was a raft of pre-cons, however processing went like clockwork, and all were satisfied by the 15th May.  
• The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 13th June, and payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.

• The combined Zeekr (ZK)/Lynk reported C1Q25 top line 11% below our estimates, due to sharper than expected price erosions, 
• Despite ASP missing our estimates by 6.3% for ZK and 16% for Lynk, ZK managed to beat our gross margin estimate by 3.7ppt and consensus by 4.0ppt, 
• With Geely and related persons controlling 78% of ZK and Geely’s H-share stock rising in value, we see the chance for the go-private deal to succeed as high. 

• Moon River announced that it received positive results from an ore sorting study performed on material from the Endako Mine Complex.
• MOO plans to also perform these tests on the Davidson Project as well.
• We provide an overview of the Endako Project below.

• PUSU deadline looms on May 30, giving Corpay limited time to submit a firm bid or walk away—raising the stakes for investors monitoring deal certainty and potential upside.
• Alpha’s valuation remains compelling, with a blended takeover value of ~3,795p vs. a current share price of 3,050p, implying ~24% upside on deal completion.
• Synergies estimated at ~99p per share could lift deal terms; I see a 65% probability of a formal bid, recommending accumulation around 3,000p for event-driven investors.

• US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s impending tax-cut bill.
• The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.97%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 4 bps to 4.49%.
• US equities retreated after a six-day rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.4% to 5,940 and 19,143, respectively. 

• Handelsbanken B shares trade at a ~55% premium to A shares despite lower voting rights, liquidity, and index status — a rare and statistically extreme dislocation.
• Regression and post-2020 cointegration confirm mean-reverting behavior, supporting a relative value trade favoring SHB A over SHB B.
• Structural constraints on arbitrage and asymmetric flow dynamics may delay convergence, but the pricing gap remains fundamentally unjustified and actionable.

• Indo-Pak ceasefire triggers risk-premia markdowns – Monthly IVs -4.0 vols lower, Skew & Smile get compressed  
• Vol-Regime stays in “High & Up” state with high likelihood of switching to “High & Down” in the upcoming week.  
• IV term-structure flattened as the week progressed. Leaving front-end vol-differentials in Contango & Back-end Backwardation now eased to +0.60 vols.  

Georgia Capital (GCAP) delivered a solid NAV total return of 11.2% in Q125 in local currency terms (9.8% in GBP), continuing its strong 15.1% growth per annum since end-2018. Q125 NAV growth was driven primarily by Lion Finance Group’s stock performance (BGEO, formerly Bank of Georgia), which contributed 6.9pp to NAV performance. The strength of GCAP’s private portfolio continues to be reflected in robust earnings growth and sustained dividend flows. The group has reiterated its guidance to receive GEL180m in recurring dividends in 2025 (flat vs 2023 and 2024, which was sufficient to cover 169% of GCAP’s share buybacks over the last two years). Given the persistent wide discount to NAV (currently 37% to end-March NAV), GCAP remains focused on accretive share repurchases, reinforcing its commitment to disciplined capital allocation.

Deutsche Beteiligungs’ (DBAG’s) investment activity in Q125 was limited to one closed private equity (PE) investment (replacing external financing at an existing holding) and one private debt investment, with one add-on in its portfolio and no exits in the period. That said, it expects a significant pick-up in new investments, as well as three or four exits by Q126, despite the recent elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. This suggests that several transactions are at an advanced stage. The higher deal pace should allow DBAG to further diversify its portfolio and deploy part of its dry powder. Its NAV increased by 1.7% in Q125, driven primarily by higher multiples, partly on the back of bids it received for some of its assets.

• Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
• The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
• Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land
• On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating to Aa1 (stable) from Aaa (negative). The downgrade reflects the increase in US government debt and interest payment ratios for more than a decade to levels significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns, according to the agency.
• Moody’s does not believe that current fiscal proposals under consideration will lead to material multi-year reductions in spending and deficits.

• In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.
• New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.
• We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.

• Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) reported an encouraging Q1 2025 with revenue/operating income up 82%/72% YoY, buoyed by the acquisition of PDS. 
• Despite acquiring 91.6% of PDS (as of 15 May 2025), the company has net cash and investments of 4.8 bn pesos, representing more than 30% of its current market capitalization. 
• Trading at 13x PE, with a >6% forward dividend yield, and ex-cash ROCE>20%, the stock is cheap. We believe there is a long runway for growth with multiple catalysts.

• Reported surge in listing interest on SGX (SGX SP) driven by escalating U.S.- China trade tensions and associated geopolitical uncertainties.
• Singapore’s proactive policy toolkit announced in February 2025  offer issuers both cost savings and regulatory certainty and could play a role in attracting more companies to list in Singapore.
• An uptick in listings on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) can set off a virtuous cycle, strengthen valuation multiples  and lead to upward revisions to 2026 earnings forecasts.