Category

Financials

Daily Brief Financials: Samsung Life Insurance, Nikkei 225, Chesapeake Financial Shares In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Insider’s Flawed Premise on the Samsung C&T Forced Holdco Conversion Issue
  • Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks
  • CPKF: Raising our 2025 Diluted EPS Estimate by 0.20 to $2.70 and Initiating our 2026 Estimate at $2.85


Samsung Insider’s Flawed Premise on the Samsung C&T Forced Holdco Conversion Issue

By Sanghyun Park

  • The FTC uses acquisition cost, not market value, so Samsung C&T’s existing 5.05% Samsung Elec stake is booked at KRW 400B
  • Samsung Life only needs to sell ~5.5% of Samsung Elec, not the full 8.51%, leaving Samsung C&T with a ~KRW 10T buffer before hitting the 50% holdco threshold.
  • The holdco risk is overblown—unlikely without rule changes. The Bio spin-off looks like prep for Samsung C&T to buy Samsung Elec stake, driving re-rating upside for C&T and Life.

Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.
  • The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It’s modestly overbought and could go higher.
  • News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.

CPKF: Raising our 2025 Diluted EPS Estimate by 0.20 to $2.70 and Initiating our 2026 Estimate at $2.85

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CPKF’s first quarter net earnings, excluding a one-time charge from repositioning its investment securities portfolio of $8.0 million aftertax, or $1.69 per diluted share, increased $0.8 million, or 29%, to $3.55 million year over year, while 2025’s first quarter diluted EPS rose $0.17, or 29%, to $0.75.
  • Including this one-time charge, CPKF reported a net loss of $4.45 million, or a diluted loss per share of $0.94.
  • This was better than our estimate, which had called for flat net earnings (off by $0.8 million), as well as flat diluted EPS (off by $0.17).We are increasing our diluted EPS estimate for 2025 by $0.20 from $2.50 to $2.70, representing a 12% gain over 2024’s actual EPS of $2.42.

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Daily Brief Financials: Blackstone , China Construction Bank H, Nikkei 225, S&P/ASX 200, China Overseas Land & Investment, Chime Financial, Slide Insurance Holdings, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, S&P 500 INDEX, Yuexiu Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big
  • Bank of Japan’s June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?
  • S&P/​​​​ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Post-Index Rebalance Announcement
  • COLI (688 HK): The Best Beta Play for China
  • Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Heavy Demand in IPO Order Book but Reason for Caution
  • Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Another Insurance IPO Sets Terms, Seeking $2bn Valuation
  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Accelerated Deal, Valuation Fits the Bill for Insurance IPO
  • US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Bank of Japan’s June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
  • Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
  • While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.

S&P/​​​​ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Post-Index Rebalance Announcement

By Nico Rosti

  • As reported by Brian Freitas on 6 June the list of changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices was announced, including some change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
  • The S&P/ASX 200 index has become quite overbought as of last Friday’s Close, a pullback is probably imminent.
  • This insight evaluates possible scenarios for the possible 2-4 weeks, beyond the June 20 date when the index review will become effective.

COLI (688 HK): The Best Beta Play for China

By Jacob Cheng

  • COLI, being a SOE residential developer, has no bankruptcy risk.  Under the current downturn, it is gaining market share and evolving into a stronger market leader
  • It recently issued onshore bond at historical low coupon 1.80% (5-year) and 2.37% (10-year), which is even lower than China’s LPR.  This is very significant 
  • Valuation is almost all time low, and downside is limited.  We think it is the perfect beta play for China

Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Heavy Demand in IPO Order Book but Reason for Caution

By IPO Boutique

  • The hold-up is based upon how Chime should be valued — either like a fintech darling or just another financial services company.
  • The company’s gross profit tells a solid growth story as Chime ramps into the IPO with a healthy 33% gross profit clip based on Q1 2025 financials vs Q1 2024. 
  • According to our sources, the Chime order book is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.

Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Another Insurance IPO Sets Terms, Seeking $2bn Valuation

By IPO Boutique

  • Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE US) will be the fourth insurance company to go public in the first half of 2025.
  • The company is offering 20 million shares at $15-$17 equating to a $1.9b-$2.1b  market cap.
  • We anticipate there to be solid interest in this IPO based upon sector tailwinds. The company considers itself an “insurtech” which could create a different investor profile for this deal.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Accelerated Deal, Valuation Fits the Bill for Insurance IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC US) has elected to push pricing ahead by one-day due to the strength of the order book.
  • According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with quality conversions from 1-on-1 meetings.
  • This IPO is being well-received. Insurance IPOs are not the type of deal that is “flashy” out of the gates but is one that is geared toward buy-and-hold investors.

US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding

By John Ley

  • We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.
  • Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.
  • Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Treasury yields climbed yesterday, led by the front and belly tenors, in line with similar price action in Europe after ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank could pause rate cuts in the summer.
  • The UST curve bear-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 5 bps to 3.92% and the yield on the 10Y UST up 4 bps at 4.39%.
  • US equities retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday in a call that lasted c. 1.5 hours. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Bank Of Baroda, Cantor Equity Partners I, Chime Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
  • SSI Newsletter: New Portfolio Ideas, Guest Pitches, and Key Updates
  • Chime Financial (CHYM US): Delayed Inclusion to US & Global Indices


Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

By Victor Galliano

  • Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
  • Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
  • We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

SSI Newsletter: New Portfolio Ideas, Guest Pitches, and Key Updates

By Special Situation Investments

  • New portfolio ideas include Lutnick’s SPACs CEPO/CEPT with potential multibagger upside and MYX:AX’s merger arb with Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
  • Guest pitches highlight potential takeover of Webjet Group, Naturgy’s odd-lot tender offer, and Assura’s bidding war interest.
  • Updates cover LWAY’s board overhaul, LQDA’s patent lawsuit denial, RTACU’s unit separation, NZM’s strategic review, OCFT’s document delay, and PAC’s short report on ABL.

Chime Financial (CHYM US): Delayed Inclusion to US & Global Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Chime Financial (CHYM US) meets public voting rights eligibility only after the 6-month lock-up expiry, leading to its delayed inclusion in Global-F SmallCap and R1000 in 2026.
  • Chime Financial (CHYM US) will be excluded from Global-M for the next 12 months due to the lock-up on undisclosed shareholders, which keeps the free float below the 15% threshold.
  • Chime Financial (CHYM US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the September 2025 review.

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Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index, Taishin Financial Holding, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown
  • Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun25 Results: 100% Hit Rate; Positioned for High-Impact Sector-Neutral Trades
  • ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit


India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%, double the anticipated 25 basis points.
  • The NIFTY 50 Index fluctuated initially but later stabilized at a 1.0% gain, while the NSE Nifty Bank Index rose 1.5%. At-the-money implied volatility changed little, while the skew rotated.
  • This Insight explains the RBI’s bold policy move, market reactions, and limitations of predictive models in navigating central bank decisions.

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun25 Results: 100% Hit Rate; Positioned for High-Impact Sector-Neutral Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 6th June 2025.
  • There will be one ADD/DEL for T50, two ADDs/DELs for T100, and five ADDs/DELs for TDIV. 
  • All of these are exactly in line with our final expectations.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
  • Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
  • Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

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Daily Brief Financials: Great Eastern Holdings, Samsung Life Insurance, Metaplanet, Hang Seng Index, Kaia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Great Eastern (GE SP): OCBC Bumps Terms – $30.15/Share Exit Offer
  • Top 30 Best Performing Stocks in KOSPI in Past Week and Surging Price of Samsung Life Insurance
  • Metaplanet (3350) | Metaplanet’s Treasury Ambition Grows
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 02 – 06): Broad Gains as Option Activity Fades
  • Kaia: The New Frontier for Web3 Mass Onboarding


Great Eastern (GE SP): OCBC Bumps Terms – $30.15/Share Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • The prior Offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) closed on the 12th July 2024, with OCBC holding 93.62%. Shares have been suspended ever since. Compulsory acquisition was not afforded.
  • To break the deadlock, I mused in This Needs To Be Sorted: Great Eastern (GE SP)’s Protracted Suspension, that OCBC needed to come out with a improved Offer of ~S$30/share.
  • That has now unfolded. Minorities have the option of a S$30.15/share Exit Offer; or voting for the resumption of trading, which will be possible via the issuance of bonus shares.

Top 30 Best Performing Stocks in KOSPI in Past Week and Surging Price of Samsung Life Insurance

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we also provide a list of 30 top performing stocks in KOSPI in the past one week (in terms of price performance and trading value).
  • We also discuss the surging share price of Samsung Life Insurance which suggests a near-term regulation change that could require the company to partially dispose its stake in Samsung Electronics. 
  • With Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President, the probability of Samsung Life Insurance being forced to sell its stake in Samsung Electronics has risen much more.

Metaplanet (3350) | Metaplanet’s Treasury Ambition Grows

By Mark Chadwick

  • Metaplanet aims to raise ¥745B via a 555M share issuance to expand its Bitcoin holdings, targeting 100,000 BTC by end-2026.
  • The raise implies significant dilution, but rising share prices and strong NISA retail demand could make the capital goal achievable within 12–18 months.
  • Early investors benefit structurally from raises above NAV, as Metaplanet evolves into a long-term institutional vehicle for Bitcoin exposure and monetary debasement hedging.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 02 – 06): Broad Gains as Option Activity Fades

By John Ley

  • A weekly roundup of key option and price metrics for Hong Kong single stocks.
  • Option volumes on par with the lowest levels seen over the past 6 months.
  • Implied volatility appears to have broadly settled around current levels.

Kaia: The New Frontier for Web3 Mass Onboarding

By Animoca Brands Research

  • In August 2024, Klaytn (backed by South Korea’s Kakao) and Finschia (developed by Japan’s LINE Tech Plus) merged to form the Kaia chain, a Layer 1 blockchain aimed at becoming Asia’s leading Web3 ecosystem.
  • LINE, the leading messaging app in Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan, boasts approximately 200 million high-value monthly active users, with over 80% penetration in key markets, and is partnering with Kaia to deliver a rich Web3 experience on its platform.
  • The key initiative of the Kaia-LINE NEXT partnership to onboard users from Web2 to Web3 is the Mini Dapp ecosystem, which mirrors the Telegram-TON partnership’s Game-Token-DeFi strategy, with the Kaia foundation driving developer engagement

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Daily Brief Financials: Keppel DC REIT, FnGuide Inc, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Banco BPM SpA, Bank Of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage
  • FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades
  • [Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR
  • Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration
  • Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)


STTF Index Rebalance: Keppel DC REIT Replaces Jardine Cycle & Carriage

By Brian Freitas


FnGuide Sector ETF Boom: Sniffing Out Uncrowded Flow Trades

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s ETF market just hit KRW 200T AUM — doubling in under 2 years. ETFs now make up ~10% of KOSPI’s cap and over half its daily trading volume.
  • FnGuide dominates Korea’s sector theme ETF space, capturing ~KRW 9T of the KRW 14T market — far ahead of KRX — with momentum accelerating in early 2025.
  • FnGuide’s rebalancing process is drawing more trader interest lately, with rising inquiries suggesting faster market learning — prompting earlier pre-positioning in sector ETF flow trades.

[Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The rankings used for the June 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (4th June 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be after the close on Friday.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&A events which affect the index the next two quarters).

Cross-Border Capital: BAMI, Brussels, and the Battle for Banking Integration

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BAMI’s standalone upside remains compelling, trading at a discount to peers with solid capital ratios and structural re-rating catalysts, including asset management and insurance earnings now contributing more meaningfully.
  • The deal’s outcome hinges on golden power clearance and potential EU legal action; UniCredit’s resolve and Brussels’ support add optionality, despite headline and regulatory risk remaining high.
  • I see asymmetric outcomes favoring long BAMI positions or selective pair trades; timing risk is real, but downside is cushioned by valuation and sector consolidation dynamics.

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bank of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
  • The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

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Daily Brief Financials: Henderson Land Development, Bank of Jiangsu , Japan Post Bank, Cantor Equity Partners I, Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa, Jefferson Capital, Martin Currie Portfolio Invest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
  • China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes
  • Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity
  • Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties
  • Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable
  • Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Insolvency Account Manager
  • Franklin Global Trust — An exciting new chapter in the trust’s life


Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

By Brian Freitas

  • Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
  • Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
  • The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

By Brian Freitas


Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

By Rikki Malik

  • Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
  • Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
  • The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%

Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties

By Special Situation Investments

  • CEPO and CEPT SPACs, run by Howard Lutnick, trade above trust value with potential multibagger upside in crypto-related deals.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald, led by Lutnick’s son, has deepened its crypto involvement, including a 5% stake in Tether.
  • Cantor’s SPACs feature no warrants, a sponsor note boosting trust value, and no specified target sectors.

Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Inocsa seeks 75%+ control of GCO via a near-fair €49.45/share offer, aiming for strategic delisting. Minority holders risk illiquidity if they do not tender.
  • GCO’s fundamentals remain strong: 9.2x NTM P/E, 0.9x P/TBV, 242% solvency, and ample excess capital suggest fair value is higher than the offer.
  • While upside is capped, low risk and firm financing support offer risk-arb desks an annualized ~4% return before a likely late-August settlement.

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Insolvency Account Manager

By IPO Boutique

  • They are a leading analytically driven purchaser and manager of charged-off and insolvency consumer accounts with four geographic regions with the majority of their operations landing in the USA.
  • The principal purposes of this offering are to increase their capitalization and flexibility, facilitate an orderly distribution for the selling stockholders, and create a public market for their common stock.
  • We anticipate this offering to likely find participation from sector dedicated investors and not draw the attention of “traditional” IPO players.

Franklin Global Trust — An exciting new chapter in the trust’s life

By Edison Investment Research

Franklin Global Trust (FRGT) was formerly the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust. Since October 2018 it has been managed by Zehrid Osmani, who is head of Franklin Templeton’s Edinburgh-based Global Long-Term Unconstrained (GLTU) team. As a result of the decision to retire the Martin Currie brand, on 12 July 2025, the GLTU team will join Franklin Equity Group’s (FEG’s) team of around 65 investment professionals, and Jonathan Curtis, FEG’s CIO, will become co-manager of the trust. FRGT’s investment strategy will remain unchanged, but being part of a wider investment operation should enhance the GLTU team’s research capability. FEG’s focus on high-growth sectors including technology and healthcare should be a good fit with FRGT’s approach of seeking innovative companies with long-term growth potential.


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Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Slide Insurance Holdings, NSE Nifty Bank Index, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, State Bank Of India, Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I, Cofinimmo SA, China Jinmao Holdings, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
  • S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?
  • Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
  • This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC):  Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO
  • State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
  • Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More
  • Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)


NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust

By David Blennerhassett

  • 0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing  P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
  • What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
  • NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.

S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

By Dimitris Ioannidis


Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer

By IPO Boutique

  • They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
  • The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO. 

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
  • Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
  • This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC):  Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings will be offering 6.67 million shares at a $14-$16 range equating to a $659m-$753m valuation.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they wrote $116.1 million in gross written premiums, an increase of $34.5 million, or 42.3%.
  • The underwriters have reserved for sale, at the initial public offering price, up to 7% of the shares offered.

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
  • Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
  • This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Renatus Tactical Acquisition, a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain, shows 3% return with capped downside at 15%, potential speculative inflows.
  • Wanda Hotel Development’s asset sale exceeds market cap, plans capital return, 20% upside; Lifeway Foods sale to Danone expected.
  • Liquidia’s FDA-approved Yutrepia drug targets significant market share, 100%+ upside; Currency Exchange International’s FX Payments segment shows high growth.

Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Revised 1.185x exchange ratio unlocks a negotiated, board-backed path to Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, addressing prior valuation pushback and aligning institutional holders.
  • EPS accretive by 15.6% in 2026, driven by €16m in synergies and stronger funding optionality; upside anchored by operational scale, not leverage.
  • Spread of ~1.9% (~5.1% annualized) reflects low interloper risk and deal certainty; attractive risk-reward for directional or hedged exposure near NTA.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • US treasuries fell and yields rose yesterday, amid renewed US-China trade tensions and a large supply of corporate issuances.
  • Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 4 bps to 3.94% and 4.44%, respectively.
  • Equities climbed, led by tech stocks, after the White House indicated that US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will “likely” speak this week.

Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
  • The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
  • We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms

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Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Thanachart Capital, Assura PLC, Hang Seng Index, Kobo Resources , Chime Financial, Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I, Wing Tai Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Final Expectations; 3 Changes Expected + Delta Capping
  • Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics
  • HSI Tactical Outlook: Buy This Dip
  • Kobo Resources Inc – Mining Monthly: May Edition
  • Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Valuation Cut in Half, Major VC Players Backing FinTech IPO
  • SSI Newsletter Highlights: New SPAC and Liquidation Ideas, Key Updates on Dividends and More
  • Independent Director Chua Kee Lock Acquires Venture Shares on Open Market
  • Independent Director Chua Kee Lock Acquires Venture Shares on Open Market


ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Final Expectations; 3 Changes Expected + Delta Capping

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we present our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for the index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect three ADDs and three DELs for June 2025.

Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics

By Special Situation Investments

  • Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with KKR and PHP, both having made acquisition offers.
  • KKR’s offer is 49.4p/share, while PHP’s revised offer is 0.3769 PHP shares plus 12.5p/share in cash.
  • Glazer increased its stake in Assura to 2.9%, indicating expectations of a bidding war with minimal downside.

HSI Tactical Outlook: Buy This Dip

By Nico Rosti

  • After a 7-week rally the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) last week gave up and close the week down (CC=-1 on our WEEKLY LONG model).
  • The pullback continued on  Monday, reaching 22668 and in our WEEKLY LONG model this price support zone is oversold.
  • The pullback may continue, so in this insight we are going to offer some perspective on possible support zones where to buy. We think this setback is a buy opportunity.

Kobo Resources Inc – Mining Monthly: May Edition

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • The metals and mining market continued its strong run in May, driven by inflationary concerns due to the trade war and geopolitical tensions.
  • • In May, gold was up 1.8%, silver was up 1.7%, and copper was also up 1.7%.
  • The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 3.3%, GDXJ up 6.4%, SIL up 5.9%, and COPX up 8.7%.

Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Valuation Cut in Half, Major VC Players Backing FinTech IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • The company helps everyday people make progress in their financial lives and will be offering 32 million shares at a $24-$26 range equating to a $8.8b-$9.5b valuation.
  • The deal is anticipated to price on Tuesday (6/10) for a Wednesday (6/11) debut on the Nasdaq.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025 the company earned $518.7m in revenue marking a year-over-year increase of 32.3% from the prior year ($391.9m).

SSI Newsletter Highlights: New SPAC and Liquidation Ideas, Key Updates on Dividends and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I (RTACU) is a SPAC targeting crypto and blockchain mergers, with a capped downside risk.
  • Liquidia (LQDA) anticipates strong traction for Yutrepia’s launch, with profitability expected within 3 to 4 quarters post-launch.
  • Embracer Group (EMBRAC-B:ST) faces delays in AAA game releases, impacting sales estimates, but Coffee Stain spinoff remains on track.

Independent Director Chua Kee Lock Acquires Venture Shares on Open Market

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a S$2 million outflow, totaling S$1.73 billion for 2025.
  • Telecommunications and REITs saw highest net outflows; Financial Services and Industrials experienced significant net inflows.
  • 18 companies conducted share buybacks totaling S$45 million; Hongkong Land repurchased 1,563,300 shares at US$5.24 each.

Independent Director Chua Kee Lock Acquires Venture Shares on Open Market

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a S$2 million outflow, totaling S$1.73 billion for 2025.
  • Telecommunications and REITs saw highest net outflows; Financial Services and Industrials experienced significant net inflows.
  • 18 companies conducted share buybacks totaling S$45 million; Hongkong Land repurchased 1,563,300 shares at US$5.24 each.

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Daily Brief Financials: Leopalace21 Corp, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, NIFTY Index, NET Lease Office Properties, Woori Financial Group , Schloss Bangalore Ltd, Canara Bank, Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Buyback] Leopalace (8848 JP) – A Giant Buyback To Get Fortress Partially Out
  • CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$12bn Trade
  • Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern
  • [Alert] Buy Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP)
  • Korean Banks; Presidential Election Drives Positive View on Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)
  • Schloss Bangalore IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand
  • Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short
  • Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I: SPAC with Crypto Focus and Trump-Linked Management


[Japan Buyback] Leopalace (8848 JP) – A Giant Buyback To Get Fortress Partially Out

By Travis Lundy

  • Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) had a giant oopsie in 2018-2021 where they lost ¥180bn over three years because of defective construction requiring repairs. 
  • Murakami and others got involved. Leopalace got financing from FIG (shares/SARs/loan), Murakami bailed. Eventually Hikari Tsushin got in. Leopalace got FIG out of their loan, doing a refi through Mizuho.
  • Cash was up, cashflow is strong. Business is changed/revived. Now Leopalace is buying back SARs it sold to FIG. FIG will still own 26%. The future is potentially interesting. Still. 

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$12bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 7 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 June.
  • There are 240 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$12bn.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes for the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 1000 Index but underperformed for the CSI 500 Index.

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.
  • Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
  • This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June’s decision, regardless of the outcome.

[Alert] Buy Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP)

By Richard Howe

  • I thought I had missed NLOP. But a conversation at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting convinced me to take another look.
  • I told a friend that I “was pissed that I missed NLOP.” He said, “You haven’t missed it. All recourse debt has been paid off and the company is about to start paying dividends.”
  • So I made a decision to revisit NLOP with a fresh perspective.

Korean Banks; Presidential Election Drives Positive View on Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

  • The “Value Up” initiative which kicked off in February 2024 has been intended to bring about corporate governance and market reforms which minority and especially foreign investors have long sought
  • So far, these voluntary reforms have brought positive albeit limited benefits to South Korean equities; presidential elections, with potential legislative change, should act as a positive valuation driver
  • We reiterate our positive views on Woori and Hana Financial which are the top banks based on our scorecard; these attributes are due to  attractive valuations and balance sheet credentials

Schloss Bangalore IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) raised about US$400m in its India IPO. 
  • It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I: SPAC with Crypto Focus and Trump-Linked Management

By Special Situation Investments

  • Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I (RTAC) is a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain with a $240m IPO, led by Trump Media executives.
  • RTAC units include one share and half a warrant, with a trust value of $10.025/share, trading above trust value.
  • RTAC’s sponsor sold 1.5m shares and 0.7m warrants post-IPO at $2.45/unit, below IPO price.

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