In today’s briefing:
- ARCHION (543A) – Q1 Results Positive, Seasonality VERY Positive
- Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT’s Non-Binding Offer Provokes Mixed Feelings
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 1000 Dec26: Downtrend of Inflow Names Vs Outflow Names Beginning to Reverse
- ARCHION (543A JP): Right Thesis, Wrong Entry — Bargain Gain Lands, Reset TP to ¥370, Stay BULLISH
- IPO Rating: Lyntris (LYNX)
- TRE Holdings (9247 JP): Q1 FY03/27 flash update
- SPX Technologies’ Data Center Powerhouse — Capacity Jumps From $750 Million To $1.1 Billion!
- TD Power Systems: From Capacity Constraints to the Next Growth Phase
- Lyntris (LYNX) Eyes $492 Million IPO as Defense Technology Platform Brings Nearly $1 Billion Backlog
- Primer: Hai Leck (HLCK SP) – Aug 2026
ARCHION (543A) – Q1 Results Positive, Seasonality VERY Positive
- I was bearish Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) / Archion (543A JP) against Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) last year at this time. That trade did well. I am bullish now.
- Isuzu released Q1 results a bit more than a week ago. They were salutary. Archion released Q1 yesterday. Also salutary. Historical comparisons are a bit tough, but outlook is good.
- When looking at Q1 seasonality vs Hino history, and Q1 revenue results vs last year, either Q1 was a very special outlier or the guidance is quite conservative.
Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT’s Non-Binding Offer Provokes Mixed Feelings
- Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from EQT at A$3.13, a 32.1% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.37.
- The Board has granted a nine-week exclusivity period. While the offer represents a 10-year high and is attractive compared to precedent transactions, it is light compared to peer multiples.
- A restive shareholder base underscored by the last AGM results is a risk. However, with a turnaround remaining elusive (FY2027 EBIT downgrade), most shareholders will grudgingly accept it.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 1000 Dec26: Downtrend of Inflow Names Vs Outflow Names Beginning to Reverse
- CSI 1000 represents the next 1000 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges after CSI 800.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2026.
- We continue to see 100 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 1000 index. Roughly 78% of the reference period is now complete.
ARCHION (543A JP): Right Thesis, Wrong Entry — Bargain Gain Lands, Reset TP to ¥370, Stay BULLISH
- Q1 underlying OP rose 32% YoY to ¥29.0bn, annualising ahead of ¥110bn guidance; the ¥233bn bargain purchase gain we flagged at initiation landed almost to the number.
- We were right on the company, wrong on the entry: the July secondary cleared ¥260 — well below our ¥360 line — leaving the stock at ¥272, 0.80x book.
- Reaffirm BULISH stance, TP reset to ¥370 (was ¥450), +36% upside; basis is a tight blend of 14.5x ex-gain earnings, 1.08x book and ~5.2x EV/EBITDA at Isuzu-parity.
IPO Rating: Lyntris (LYNX)
- Lyntris is a scaled defense technology platform operating across mission-critical communications, sensing, data and other technologies supporting U.S. and allied defense programs.
- The company offers institutional investors exposure to the modernization of military infrastructure without relying on a single product or emerging technology.
- The offering is led by Evercore, Citigroup, Guggenheim Securities and BofA Securities, providing a strong institutional syndicate with broad distribution across aerospace and defense, industrial technology and generalist investors.
TRE Holdings (9247 JP): Q1 FY03/27 flash update
- In Q1 FY03/27, the company reported a YoY revenue decline of 15.3% and operating profit drop of 73.8%.
- The company raised its 1H FY03/27 forecast, citing increased waste volumes and lower-than-expected energy costs.
- Revenue and profit increased in the spread business due to high resource prices and rigorous metal sorting.
SPX Technologies’ Data Center Powerhouse — Capacity Jumps From $750 Million To $1.1 Billion!
- SPX Technologies reported strong second quarter results for 2026, highlighted by a 23% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 20% rise in adjusted EBITDA, alongside a 22% growth in adjusted earnings per share.
- This performance was driven by robust organic growth in both the HVAC and Detection & Measurement (D&M) segments, complemented by recent acquisitions, notably Neptronic, which was added to the HVAC segment.
- The company raised its full-year guidance, increasing the midpoint to imply 27% adjusted EBITDA growth, based on higher-than-expected data center volume, improved D&M performance, and contributions from Neptronic.
TD Power Systems: From Capacity Constraints to the Next Growth Phase
- Record Q1 sales and order inflow, 93% export mix in new orders, and FY27 revenue guidance raised to INR 2,600 crore.
- Order inflow exceeded quarterly revenue and the backlog rose to INR 2,207 crore, supporting visibility beyond the current year.
- The key debate is shifting from demand availability to execution, capacity additions, working-capital funding and valuation discipline.
Lyntris (LYNX) Eyes $492 Million IPO as Defense Technology Platform Brings Nearly $1 Billion Backlog
- Lyntris Inc. (NYSE: LYNX) is preparing to raise approximately $492 million in an initial public offering of 24.0 million shares priced between $19.00 and $22.00 per share.
- At the $20.50 midpoint, the offering would value Lyntris at approximately $2.36 billion based on roughly 115.1 million shares expected to be outstanding following the offering.
- The company has applied to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker LYNX. Evercore ISI, Citigroup and Guggenheim Securities are serving as lead book-running managers, with BofA Securities, Baird, Raymond James and William Blair also participating in the offering.
Primer: Hai Leck (HLCK SP) – Aug 2026
- Hai Leck faces a challenging operating environment characterized by a significant and persistent decline in revenue and net income over the past several years. The company’s growth track record shows negative compound annual growth rates across key metrics like revenue, net income, and dividends over 3, 5, and 7-year periods.
- The company operates in the highly cyclical and competitive Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) sector, primarily serving the oil & gas and petrochemical industries. Its performance is heavily tied to the capital expenditure cycles of these industries, which are influenced by volatile global energy prices and demand.
- Despite poor growth, the company exhibits some financial resilience, reflected in a high Smartkarma Resilience score. However, a significant corporate action is underway, with the founder and controlling shareholder proposing to privatize and delist the company, which will fundamentally change the investment thesis for public institutional investors.
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