ECM Daily Briefs | Page 29 of 161

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering
We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results
Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive

Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang

The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected.
The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights.
Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.

We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

By Andrei Zakharov

We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains

Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live

By Sanghyun Park

With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.

We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

By Andrei Zakharov

According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.
My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?

Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.
We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing. Most of the changes are not critical but we think overall it doesn’t look good.

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Feb 27

Daily Brief ECM: Japan Post Bank (7182) – Report of ¥600bn Offer Would Lead to Index Flows and more

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182) – Report of ¥600bn Offer Would Lead to Index Flows, and a New Future
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering
Korean IPOs: Cornerstone Bill Back in Play—This Time, It Might Stick
Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Defibrillator Maker to Break IPO Thaw
Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals – The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook
SeedWorks International Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Japan Post Bank (7182) – Report of ¥600bn Offer Would Lead to Index Flows, and a New Future

On 22-February-2023 a Reuters suggested JPH (6178) had “started talks” to sell a big stake in JP Bank (7182). Five days later they announced a complicated deal discussed here.
Today, an article suggests Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will sell ¥600bn in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to get ownership below 50% (as with JPI). A buyback might appear.
JPB has issued a “there’s smoke” release. Like last time. Expected unwind of known overhang means minimal surprise here. The question is whether they could surprise (big buyback? capital plan?).

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

Reuters reports that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) is planning to sell shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).
The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.
The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding.

Korean IPOs: Cornerstone Bill Back in Play—This Time, It Might Stick

By Sanghyun Park

The odds of the cornerstone system getting the green light are significantly higher than they were two years ago.
With bills typically taking a year to kick in, we need to stay on this—if all goes smoothly, cornerstone investors could hit Korean IPOs as early as next year.
In the early stages, cornerstone allocations will be key to shaping our IPO trading playbook. Staying ahead of these shifts is crucial.

Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vigonvita is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing.
Vigonvita has commercialized COVID-19 anti-viral drug and is expanding the indication to RSV.
The main contributor to the company’s develop is not holding a key management role.

Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Defibrillator Maker to Break IPO Thaw

By IPO Boutique

Kestra was founded in 2014 by Bain Capital private equity and leaders from the external (AED) and internal (ICD) defibrillation industries.
The company is seeking a valuation between $667m-$762m based on the $14-$16 range.
Given the financials, sector in which this company operates in and the strong backing, it is our early opinion that the IPO will likely be well-received.

Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals – The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.
Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.
Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.

SeedWorks International Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

SeedWorks International Ltd (1441147D IN) (SIL) is looking to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Equirus, DAM, SBI.
SIL is a seed research and development organization engaged in the research, production, and marketing of hybrid seeds as well as open-pollinated variety (OPV) seeds for rice, wheat, and mustard.
According to F&S Report, the company was the second fastest-growing Indian seed company in terms of revenues between FY21-24, with a CAGR of 11.98%.

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Feb 26

Daily Brief ECM: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights and more

In today’s briefing:

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
Dozn IPO Preview
JSW Cement Pre-IPO – Leveraging Synergies of the JSW Group but Has High Debt
JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
Manycore Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Pre-IPO Butong Group – The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that JXAM is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.

Dozn IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Dozn is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in March 2025. The company plans to offer 2.5 million shares in this IPO.
The IPO price range is from 10,250 won to 12,500 won per share and the offering amount ranges from 26.2 billion won to 31.2 billion won.
Founded in 2017, Dozn is emerging as a prominent business-to-business (B2B) digital solution service provider in Korea.

JSW Cement Pre-IPO – Leveraging Synergies of the JSW Group but Has High Debt

By Akshat Shah

JSW Cement Limited (9858514Z IN) is looking to raise about US$480m in its upcoming India IPO.
JSW Cement (JSWC) is a cement manufacturing company in India focused on manufacturing green cementitious products comprising blended cement, ordinary portland cement, ground granulated blast furnace slag, among other products.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Manycore Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

Manycore Tech (KOOL US) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JPM and CCBI.
Manycore Tech is an AI powered design and visualization platform with graphics processing unit clusters. Designs crafted can be translated into production-ready drawings, enabling an automated and accurate manufacturing process.
According to F&S, it was world’s largest spatial design platform and largest software provider in China’s spatial design industry, based on average monthly active users and revenue, respectively, in 2023.

Pre-IPO Butong Group – The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable

BUTONG’s growth momentum remained high, but customers are more focused on cost-effectiveness rather than premium products. We are unsure whether BUTONG’s current high growth is sustainable in this low-growth industry.
The more revenue proportion from baby care products, the lower overall gross margin would be.BUTONG’s strategy of emphasizing sales over R&D isn’t conducive to establishing core competitiveness in fierce competition.
After Series B financing, the post-investment valuation reached about RMB2 billion. However, the market value of peers is not high. BUTONG’s post-IPO valuation performance may be lower than expected.

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Feb 25

Daily Brief ECM: JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway and more

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

In today’s briefing:

JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway
Mixue Group IPO Valuation Analysis
MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof
Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway

JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.

Mixue Group IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

Mixue Group plans to complete its IPO, selling 17.1 million shares at the IPO price of HK$202.50 per share. The IPO is expected to start trading on 3 March.
Our base case valuation of Mixue Group is implied market cap of HKD 96 billion or target price of HKD 254, which is 26% higher than the initial IPO price.
Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a range of HKD 206 to HKD 308 per share for Mixue Group.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Mixue Group (2097 HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk.
Due to slower R&D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.
After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen’s IPO prospects.

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Feb 24

Daily Brief ECM: Weekly Deals Digest (23 Feb) – JXAM and more

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Feb) – JXAM, Canvest, CNBM, Tam Jai, Proto, Domain, Mayne, SG Fleet
MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing
Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations
MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case
Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – The IPO Is Attractively Priced
ECM Weekly (24th Feb 2025) – JX Advance, Mixue, Hexaware, Geekplus, Trualt, Goodman, Xtalpi, Hyundai

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Feb) – JXAM, Canvest, CNBM, Tam Jai, Proto, Domain, Mayne, SG Fleet

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Mixue Group (MIX HK) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), China National Building Material (3323 HK), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), Proto Corp (4298 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group (MIX HK)‘s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average.
We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO.
MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.

Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

Mixue Group (MIX HK) is offering 17.1 million shares at a price of HK$202.50 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$3.45 Bn.
The company demonstrated stellar growth in store count, revenue, and profits, focusing on the mass-market freshly made beverage segment despite a sector slow down in 2024.
Mixue’s pace of store expansion may slow down going forward, however its ultra-low prices (RMB4-10) and scale provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable performance.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
In MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – The IPO Is Attractively Priced

MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and Baicha Baidao Industrial. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.
2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively.
Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.

ECM Weekly (24th Feb 2025) – JX Advance, Mixue, Hexaware, Geekplus, Trualt, Goodman, Xtalpi, Hyundai

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Mixue Group (MIX HK) and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) might go live in the coming week, with JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) following after.
On the placements front, there were a few mega deals this week.

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Feb 22

Daily Brief ECM: MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone and more

In today’s briefing:

MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang
MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case
Mixue Group IPO: Value For Money Pricing and Attractive Valuations
Genuine Biotech (真实生物) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO – Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Mixue Group IPO: Value For Money Pricing and Attractive Valuations

Mixue Group (MIX HK) is offering 17.06 million shares at HK$202.50 apiece to raise HK$3.45 billion ($444 million) in its initial public offering in Hong Kong
Mixue’s IPO was launched today morning and will close on Wednesday 26th February. The stock is due to list on HK bourses on 3rd March.
Mixue, China’s value-for-money freshly made beverage leader, has priced its IPO shares attractively given its robust growth track record and long term competitive strengths.

Genuine Biotech (真实生物) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Genuine Biotech is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing.
Genuine Biotech has commercialized product and is expanding indication of its core product from HIV to cancer.
The company’s founder has experience of R&D in the relevant area in leading NMCs.

Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO – Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

By Rosita Fernandes

Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (2350587D IN) (TBL) is planning to raise about US$120m through its upcoming India IPO.
TBL is one of India’s largest biofuels producers. As of FY24, TBL’s business verticals were Ethanol, ENA (Extra Neutral Alcohol), CBG (Compressed Biogas), FOM (Fermented Organic Manure), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).
As per the CRISIL Report, TBL held the distinction of being the largest ethanol producer in India based on installed capacity, as of Mar 24.

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Feb 21

Daily Brief ECM: Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple and more

In today’s briefing:

Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring
Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering – Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive
Sotetsu Placement: Low Valuation and Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance
PhonePe IPO: Walmart-Backed India Fintech Preps for Listing. A Quick Primer
Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Riding on the Gold Rush

Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring

Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) today announced a large-ish secondary equity offering – 10% of shares out and 20% of Max Real World Float.
This is crossholders selling down roughly 30% of what they own. Sotetsu announced a buyback for a quarter of the offering over the next six months.
The shareholder structure and distribution within Max Real World Float tells you all you need to know.

Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering – Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP) shocked everyone a year ago when they announced an immediate large price hike across the board for its kampo medicines. The stock was +35% immediately.
It did not fall back. Now the stock is up 60% from a year ago and earnings are too. It’s still <10x PER. Now we get a ¥10bn secondary offering.
It’s 12 days of ADV but not super heavy, and there is a buyback on the back end.

Sotetsu Placement: Low Valuation and Share Buyback Should Aid Deal Performance

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$135m from selling their respective stakes in Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

PhonePe IPO: Walmart-Backed India Fintech Preps for Listing. A Quick Primer

Walmart (WMT US) backed Phonepe is gearing up for an IPO in India, according to comments made by Walmart CEO McMillon during Investor call yesterday,
Phonepe Pvt Ltd (1732974D IN) , 84% owned by Walmart (WMT US), is one of India’s leading fintech company with its flagship digital payment app.
During its last funding round in January 2023, PhonePe raised USD350 million from General Atlantic at a valuation of USD12 billion.

Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Riding on the Gold Rush

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH), a company owning multiple gold mines across the world, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
It is principally engaged in the mining, processing and sales of gold.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Feb 20

Daily Brief ECM: Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement and more

In today’s briefing:

Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…
Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting
HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged but Overhang Remains
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowing but Revenue Concentration Is High
Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while.
But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged but Overhang Remains

KKR & Co (KKR US) is looking to raise around US$160m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) .
KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had earlier tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024. Hence, the selldown is very well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger

MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh the peer comparison.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
In JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, margin pressure on the non-focus business and medium-to-long-term targets will likely disappoint.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation

Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh our valuation.

Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowing but Revenue Concentration Is High

Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market, offering a series of AMR solutions to empower warehouse fulfillment and industrial material transport.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

MIXUE’s supply chain advantages and economies of scale remain ahead of peers. This creates a unique barrier. When peers engage in price wars, MIXUE can still gain greater cost advantages.
MIXUE’s performance growth depends significantly on its ability to expand franchised store network. But MIXUE may have reached the growth ceiling in China market based on its current expansion speed.
The market prefers the franchise models. Despite declining growth rate in the whole industry, MIXUE’s valuation should still be higher than peers – e.g. P/E of 17-20x is comfortable range.

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Feb 19

Daily Brief ECM: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and more

In today’s briefing:

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case
Xtapli Placement – Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best
Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall
JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet
Mixue Group IPO Preview
Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis
Pre-IPO VISEN Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.
The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage.

Xtapli Placement – Questionable Timing. An AI Momentum Play, at Best

Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025.
QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall

Hexaware Technologies raised around US$1bn in its India IPO, while its anchor book was strong, overall coverage was not.
Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Mixue Group IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Mixue Group is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mixue Group plans to raise about US$500 million from its Hong Kong IPO.
The company has an excellent income statement with notable growth in sales and profits in the past four years.
Net margin improved from 15.7% in 2023 and 18.7% in 1Q-3Q 2024, driven by higher sales base and lower major operating costs as a percentage of sales

Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis

Mixue Group, the largest freshly-made drinks company in China, is reportedly set to begin book building for its Hong Kong IPO by end-February, targeting to raise approximately USD 500 million.
Mixue Group (MIX HK)‘s mass-market pricing strategy and compelling value for money positioning targets price-sensitive consumers, especially in lower-tier cities and among youth, driving high-volume sales.
Mixue Group (MIX HK) reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings and margin expansion despite sector slowdown and intensifying competition.

Pre-IPO VISEN Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

All the three candidates lonapegsomatropin, TransCon CNP, palopegteriparatide in the pipeline of VISEN are based on Exclusive License Agreements with Ascendis Pharma. So, there’re concerns about VISEN’s independent R&D capabilities.
VBP would destroy the price system of growth hormone market in China, and market size would shrink due to price reduction and decreasing demand as fewer babies will be born.
Post investment valuation reached US$1.03 billion. Since leading domestic companies have dominated the market, it’s not easy for VISEN to break through. Valuation of VISEN could be lower than peers.

Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Innovatiview India Ltd (INNOVATIVIEWINDIA IN) is looking to raise about US$230m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are DAM, ICICI, JM FIn, Motilal.
Innovatiview India ltd (IIL) is a technology-driven provider of automated ancillary security and surveillance solutions for examinations, elections, and large-scale events across India.
IIL was the largest player in examination integrated security solutions in India, with a market share of 73.7% in terms of revenue for FY24, according to F&S Report.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 18

Daily Brief ECM: Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support and more

In today’s briefing:

Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support
JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming
Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update – The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds
Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life & Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today’s close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position.
The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update – The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.
The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.
Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.

Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet