Japan

• Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A JP)  raised US$193m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
• Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT Investment is a REIT with hotel assets. It is an investment corporation sponsored by affiliated developer, Kasumigaseki Capital.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation

• Revenue increased by 11.5% YoY to JPY8.8bn, with recurring revenue rising 7.6% YoY to JPY4.3bn.
• Operating profit surged 74.6% YoY to JPY990mn, with a cost of revenue ratio decline of 3.0pp YoY.
• Revenue growth driven by @rmsV6 deployment, price hikes, and Government Cloud segment’s regional disaster prevention systems.

• Q1 FY03/26 revenue was JPY23.3bn, a 1.6% YoY decline, with Domestic Chemicals increasing and Overseas business declining.
• Operating profit decreased by 6.2% YoY to JPY2.4bn, impacted by FX losses and increased advertising and logistics costs.
• Consumer foods revenue increased YoY, while commercial foods decreased; processed food ingredients and chemical products saw YoY growth.

• 1H FY12/25 revenue increased YoY, but operating profit and net income attributable to owners decreased YoY.
• Revised FY12/25 forecast projects revenue of JPY162.0bn, operating profit of JPY3.5bn, and net income of JPY2.5bn.
• FY12/25 annual dividend planned at JPY101.0 per share, with a DOE target of 3.5%.

• Sales decreased by 2.8% YoY to JPY573mn, with operating, recurring, and net losses each amounting to JPY1.1bn.
• SG&A expenses rose 9.7% YoY to JPY1.2bn, driven by increased R&D and sales expenses, widening the operating loss.
• The Specified Cell Products Manufacturing Business saw a 7.6% YoY sales decline due to absent one-time technology transfer fees.

• Revenue increased by 10.5% YoY to JPY5.2bn, with significant growth in Digital Device, Engineering, and Other segments.
• Operating profit rose 159.1% YoY to JPY137mn, driven by higher revenue, reduced depreciation expenses, and improved margins.
• Market prices for DIMMs rose, but sluggish demand and lower high-margin projects led to a decline in operating profit margin.

• In 1H FY12/25, orders were JPY47.3bn (+4.4% YoY), revenue JPY36.8bn (+6.5% YoY), operating profit JPY2.7bn (+14.5% YoY).
• Orders for domestic infrastructure projects rose to JPY19.2bn (+27.7% YoY), revenue JPY13.6bn (+13.4% YoY), operating profit JPY375mn (+120.6% YoY).
• Orders for offshore wind projects declined to JPY20.7bn (-5.3% YoY), revenue JPY15.1bn (+18.7% YoY), operating profit JPY2.7bn (+46.1% YoY).

• Revenue increased by 2.7% YoY to JPY5.8bn, with operating profit rising 36.8% YoY to JPY290mn.
• Segment profit for the Environmental Equipment business surged 132.7% YoY, despite a 7.8% YoY revenue decline.
• Construction segment posted a JPY30mn loss due to a 27.0% YoY decrease in large-scale project volume.

• TKC’s cumulative Q3 FY09/25 sales rose 8.3% YoY to JPY59.8bn, with operating profit decreasing 4.2% YoY.
• Local Government segment operating profit dropped 45.0% YoY due to low-margin hardware sales and software amortization.
• Year-end dividend forecast for FY09/25 increased to JPY60.00 per share, totaling JPY110.00 annually.

• Revenue decreased by 9.4% YoY, with operating profit down 18.6% YoY, and recurring profit down 18.0% YoY.
• Orders and order backlogs increased by 29.5% YoY, with a slight decline of 1.2% from end-FY03/25.
• Revenue increased by 8.8% YoY, with operating profit up 135.9% YoY due to profitable project inspections.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
• It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender. 
• But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.

• On Thursday 7 August, the TSE/Nikkei announced the changes for the JPX Nikkei 400 28 August rebalance. A few surprises, but given there is a nebulous qualitative overlay, that’s expected.
• 39 were added. 34 deleted. We got 63 of 73 actual changes correct, achieving hit rates of 96%, 83%, and 44% for our High/Medium/Low Conviction Leaderboard predictions, respectively. 
• We see US$7.3bn of flows, two way. There should be another $3bn+ of flows on the 26th and 28th.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) listed in March and did not get Fast Entry to global indices since a large part of the IPO was allotted to domestic retail investors.
• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be added to one global index this month and could be added to the other global index in September.
• The stock is trading higher following the better than forecast results announced last week. The index inclusions could take the stock higher in the short-term.

• On 7 August, Bloomberg reported that Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP) is considering going private and has received acquisition proposals from several investment funds. 
• Privatisation is a neat solution for the Board to get rid of a potentially problematic activist shareholder, Yukihiro Nomura, the son-in-law of Yoshiaki Murakami.
• PE interest is underpinned by Yomeishu’s net cash and significant real estate assets. However, the shares are up 63% YTD, which leaves little room for additional upside. Take profits.

• Context:SoftBank’s (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.
• Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.
• Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.

• CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 3QFY09/2025 results on Friday aftermarket. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates with an upward revision to full-year guidance.
• Gaming segment has begun to see recovery driven by the strong performance of newly released game titles which have become a hit. There are several new titles up for release.
• Though CA’s share price has moved up with recovery in games and improved profitability of AbemaTV, we think there is further upside.

• With many companies unable to increase their ROE, the company also intends to demonstrate its commitment to improving ROE by strengthening shareholder returns through the adoption of DOE.
• The increase in the number of companies adopting DOE may be a reflection of the fact that many companies are forecasting lower profits this fiscal year.
• Of course, returning excess cash on hand while considering ROE isn’t a bad thing, but it’s also a concern that few companies are taking steps to ensure medium-to-long-term growth.

• Sales increased by 4.5% YoY to JPY159.2bn, with operating profit rising 24.6% YoY, despite a 45.2% decline in recurring profit.
• Pharmaceutical-Related business saw a 268.6% YoY surge in segment operating profit, driven by increased shipments and accounting treatment impacts.
• The FY03/26 earnings forecast remains unchanged, with sales projected at JPY677.0bn, operating profit at JPY37.0bn, and net income at JPY13.0bn.

• Operating revenue declined by JPY4.6bn YoY to JPY60.7bn, with decreases in South Korea, Mongolia, and Real Estate.
• Operating profit increased by JPY2.6bn YoY to JPY4.6bn, driven by gains in Financial and Investment Businesses.
• Profit attributable to owners of parent fell to JPY1.4bn due to foreign exchange losses from yen appreciation.

• Revenue increased 8.2% YoY to JPY9.2bn; operating profit rose 1.5% YoY to JPY1.3bn.
• Cognavi Staffing saw a 5.2% YoY increase in utilized engineers; hourly staffing rate rose 4.6% YoY.
• Cognavi India recorded JPY9mn revenue; operating loss was JPY81mn due to upfront investment.

• In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted. 
• Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low. 
• Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,850/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

• TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
• 783 new CGRs filed in July 2025 (after 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
• The JPX Council of Experts met on 9 July. The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: I have not covered anything notable this week.  
• Event-Driven developments:Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Iress Ltd (IRE AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU).

• Sony Group Corporation (SONY) is planning to partially spin off its financial services division, Sony Financial Group Inc. (SFGI), in what would be Japan’s first major spin‑off with a direct listing in over two decades.

• The company will divest 80% of its stake while retaining the remaining 20%, and the spin‑off is scheduled for September 29, 2025.

• This looks interesting to me as I see potential for indiscriminate selling. Sony Financial Service Group contributes ~13% of Company Net Income (¥1,067.4B).

• Terumo Corp (4543 JP) reported strong Q1FY26 result, with better-than-expected profitability. Despite of flat revenue, Q1FY26 operating and net profit increased 20%+, through pricing measures and continuous cost control.
• The company lowered FY26 tariff impact to ¥10B from ¥17B. Impact now is primarily expected in the second half (¥4 each for Q3 and Q4).
• Terumo reiterated FY26 guidance. Q1FY26 revenue, operating profit, and net profit represent progress rate of 25%, 29%, and 29%, respectively.

• Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,750, a 6.4% premium to the last close of JPY1,644.
• Unusually, Taisei has set the lower limit of the tender plus irrevocables at a 55.43% ownership ratio, below the two-thirds EGM share consolidation vote threshold.
• Despite the low premium, this is a done deal due to irrevocables from the two previous competing bidders (INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP), YFO), who are also the two largest shareholders. 

• I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU),Ci Medical (3540 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), and Kolon Mobility (450140 KS).
• Key updates/news took place on Iress Ltd (IRE AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).

• Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) at JPY4,140, a 43.8% premium to the last close.
• The offer is attractive as it represents a ten-year high, implies a P/B of 1.00x and above the mid-point of the target IFA DCF valuation range. 
• Despite the lack of irrevocables, the shareholder register facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 12 August to 24 September, with payment from 30 September.

• As global companies changing to increase the proportion of variable compensation from the perspective of securing human resources, the proportion of fixed compensation is gradually declining, but still high. 
• Since only executives who receive compensation of 100 million yen or more are required to be disclosed in annual securities reports, few companies disclose the compensation of all directors individually. 
• In addition to the inability to verify whether the remuneration paid was appropriate,　investors have doubts about the independence of the process by which the Remuneration Committee determines executive remuneration.

• Q1 FY03/26 orders decreased 2.6% YoY to JPY68.9bn, while order backlogs increased 4.0% YoY to JPY229.9bn.
• Consolidated revenue rose 2.5% YoY to JPY49.7bn, driven by a 14.0% increase in Industrial HVAC revenue.
• Gross profit surged 23.5% YoY to JPY8.9bn, with a record-high gross profit margin of 17.8%, improving by 3.0pp.

• Revenue and gross profit for cumulative Q3 FY09/25 were JPY54mn, down 12.4% YoY, with SG&A expenses up 23.6%.
• Operating, recurring, and net losses increased YoY, with operating loss at JPY739mn, compared to JPY580mn prior year.
• Current assets decreased by JPY672mn due to R&D expenses, while fixed liabilities rose by JPY140mn from end-FY09/24.

• Q1 FY03/26 sales rose 5.7% YoY to JPY31.1bn, but net income dropped 54.1% YoY to JPY78mn.
• Segment sales increased 6.5% YoY to JPY29.9bn, with segment profit rising 0.4% YoY to JPY1.1bn.
• Full-year FY03/26 forecast predicts sales of JPY125.5bn and net income of JPY1.3bn, up 3.0% YoY.

• For asset management companies that mainly use passive funds, it is difficult to have sufficient dialogue with all portfolio companies equally in the environment where AGMs are concentrated in June.
• As more companies focus on meeting formal voting guidelines, there is a risk that the goal of improving corporate value through management reforms will be put aside.
• Solving individual management issues will lead to increased corporate value. However, due to physical reasons, not many companies engage in dialogue regarding individual management issues.

• The company reported significant YoY growth in sales, operating profit, recurring profit, and net income, driven by AI semiconductor demand.
• FY06/25 orders and backlog decreased sharply YoY, with the company ceasing quarterly order disclosures and forecasting weaker future orders.
• The company plans increased R&D spending, reduced capital expenditures, and stable dividends, with a share repurchase program announced.

• Q1 FY03/26 revenue rose 21.3% YoY to JPY10.5bn, with an order backlog of JPY58.5bn, up 21.3% YoY.
• Defense and Communications Equipment segment showed significant revenue growth, narrowing operating losses despite yen appreciation and higher SG&A expenses.
• Operating losses persisted across segments, influenced by increased R&D costs and changes in sales mix by end market.

• Recurring revenue increased by 10.4% YoY to JPY18.2bn, driven by underwriting, investment, and non-insurance business growth.
• Recurring profit decreased by 40.7% YoY to JPY960mn, impacted by increased costs from AXA Direct insurance contract transfers.
• The combined ratio based on earned premiums rose 4.0pp YoY to 97.9%, influenced by higher medical costs and policy transfer expenses.

• Sales declined 0.6% YoY to JPY63.2bn, while operating profit rose 126.9% YoY to JPY726mn due to higher petroleum sales.
• Revenue rose 2.3% YoY to JPY15.5bn, driven by increased kerosene sales volume and lower SG&A expenses.
• Revenue and profit increased in bike sharing and systems businesses, but operating profit declined in building maintenance due to costs.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) on Thursday announced it expected a profit hit of nearly $10 billion from US tariffs on cars imported into the USA.
• Toyota cut its full-year profit forecast by 16%, citing rising US tariffs on cars, parts, steel, aluminum, uncertainty in market outlook and supplier impacts.
• Our model does not see an overbought state at the moment and the stock was rallying on Friday, the forecast is: higher prices next week.

• Sales declined to JPY23.0bn (-12.6% YoY), with operating profit at JPY3.8bn (-33.9% YoY) and net income at JPY2.7bn (-48.0% YoY).
• FY12/25 forecast revised to sales of JPY48.0bn (-9.6% YoY) and operating profit of JPY7.5bn (-38.7% YoY).
• Dividend forecast maintained at JPY145.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 60.8% based on FY12/25 forecast.

• We update our proprietary scorecard and many of our charts based on the latest data; despite the recent lack of BoJ rate hikes, interest rate spreads are widening
• The JGB yield curve has continued to steepen, which is constructive for Japanese banks; in addition, market lending rates to June continue to rise faster than deposit rates
• We stick with our focus on two core attributes; gearing to higher interest rates and cross-holdings to market capitalization keeping Resona, Mizuho, Shizuoka and Kyoto on our list of buys

• The company forecasts FY12/25 revenue of JPY133.0bn (+5.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY18.0bn (+1.1% YoY).
• Revenue in the Japan segment is expected to increase 2.8% YoY, driven by new product sales and market recovery.
• The company plans JPY45.0bn in capital expenditures over three years, focusing on facility updates and technology investments.

• Consolidated revenue in Q1 2025 was JPY29.1bn, marking a -0.9% YoY decline, the first in 18 quarters.
• Core operating profit rose 3.0% YoY to JPY2.0bn, with a margin improvement of 0.2pp to 6.9%.
• Operating profit increased 66.6% YoY to JPY3.8bn, while net income rose 37.3% YoY to JPY2.7bn.

• Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
• GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP), Azoom (3496 JP) and Kitazato (368A JP) (recent IPO) were included in the TOPIX index at the end of July 2025.
• Our long-term pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is getting close to meeting the key Section Transfer requirements.

• 54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
• Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies. 
• Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

• There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
• Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
• The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.

• Today, Air Water Inc (4088 JP) and Ci Medical (3540 JP) announced that the CEO and Air Water who together own 85% would be taking over the company. 
• That’s nice. That means it’s a done deal and nobody can do anything about it. Complain all you want, it’s done. 
• Helpfully, the Board did its job (as did Shimizu-san – he’s selling most of his stake). This is not badly-priced for an ultimately coercive deal.  

• Context: The Toyota (7203 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlight: Both companies in this highly correlated pair reported results on 7 August 2025, opening up a rare opportunity.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Mitsubishi Electric’s Serendie platform marks a decisive shift toward AI-powered, customer-centric services, with tangible cost savings, ecosystem expansion, and a tripling of Digital Innovation workforce planned by FY2031.
• AI Leadership: The company showcased advanced automation and optimization capabilities at AWS Summit Japan, positioning itself as a leader in applied AI.
• Punchline is the Japan beta vol trade. Macro risks remain pivotal, as navigating tariff shocks, labor distortions, and central bank policy shifts could shape both performance and volatility exposure.

• Most companies have only made superficial improvements to meet numerical targets, and have not attempted to improve capital profitability or stock price valuation through improvements in board practices.
• Very few companies proceed with uncodified practices based on company policy. Conversely, these companies demonstrate a willingness to change from their previous management style.
• Previously, the idea of “treating shareholders equally with all other stakeholders” was widespread among many companies. As a result of “Stakeholderism,” capital profitability and stock price valuations have continued slow.

• Ci Medical (3540 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Air Water Inc (4088 JP) at JPY1,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
• This is a done deal as the offeror and irrevocable represent an 85.02% ownership ratio, which ensures that the EGM vote for share consolidation will pass. 

• Company continues to outperform as a new management plan is released
• Focus on cash flow generation, increased dividends and flexible buybacks
• Continued execution in their real-estate business is key to success

• The company reported a sales decline of 20.4% YoY to JPY251mn, with an operating loss of JPY1.1bn.
• R&D spending increased by 9.2% YoY to JPY2.1bn, focusing on clinical trials for kinase inhibitors.
• The company raised JPY675mn through unsecured convertible bonds to fund R&D expenses for FY12/25.

• This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
• PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
• This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

• Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
• The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
• This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

• Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) announced a tender offer from Blackstone at JPY4,870, a 43.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,389 but at a slight discount to the last close.
• While below the last close, Blackstone’s offer was a result of an auction process and was the highest binding offer. The offer also represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
• Surprisingly, Blackstone has not disclosed irrevocables. The Board has a neutral opinion. Nevertheless, a fair auction process suggests there will be limited opposition to the offer. 

• Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 1Q results on Tuesday after market. As expected, topline declined 2.5% YoY falling below consensus. Productivity enhancements supported EBITDA growth.
• With gradual cooling of labour markets, the HR Tech segment’s top line growth has declined and Recruit does not expect the segment to see strong growth in FY03/2026E.
• Recruit’s share price dropped 4.4% during today’s trade and with further weakening of job markets, we think there is further opportunity to gain on the Short side.

• Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) has recommended an MBO from Mr. Hideaki Tanaka (CEO) at JPY2,465, a 52.2% premium to the last close.
• While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light as it implies a P/B of 0.93x and is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
• Barring the emergence of an activist, a benign shareholder register and the irrevocables suggest that this is a done deal.

• Revenue reached JPY71.9bn, a 30.2% YoY increase, with operating profit at JPY2.2bn, reversing a prior loss.
• Parent-only revenue was JPY68.9bn, with gross profit at JPY6.8bn, driven by completed construction revenue and margins.
• Parent orders totaled JPY112.6bn, with Building Construction orders up 392.8% YoY, Civil Engineering orders down 27.7% YoY.

• The company reported 1H FY12/25 revenue of JPY38.1bn (+4.4% YoY) and net income of JPY468mn (-12.4% YoY).
• A share buyback program was announced, with a maximum of 20.00mn shares and a JPY4.0bn acquisition cost cap.
• The revised FY12/25 forecast anticipates revenue of JPY78.2bn (flat YoY) and net income of JPY1.6bn (-49.1% YoY).

• Revenue reached JPY290.6bn (+27.5% YoY), with IT Infrastructure Distribution at JPY286.7bn (+26.8% YoY) and Industrial Machinery at JPY3.9bn (+116.5% YoY).
• Operating profit was JPY9.9bn (+131.1% YoY), with IT Infrastructure Distribution at JPY9.5bn (+117.8% YoY) and Industrial Machinery at JPY379mn.
• Gross profit margin increased 1.1pp to 7.6%, while SG&A ratio fell 0.4pp to 4.2%, improving operating profit margin to 3.4%.

• Consolidated ordinary income reached JPY15.8bn (+13.3% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY3.9bn (+36.2% YoY).
• Loan balance increased to JPY2.43tn (+2.2% YoY), with deposits at JPY3.08tn (+0.2% YoY).
• Capital adequacy ratio improved to 9.30% non-consolidated, reflecting higher capital and reduced risk-weighted assets.

• Revenue increased by 3.2% YoY, while operating profit and recurring profit declined by 9.2% and 37.4% YoY, respectively.
• Automotive Seating and Automotive Suspension Spring segments posted lower revenue, while DDS and Precision Springs & Components segments recorded growth.
• Global HDD production declined YoY, but demand for high-capacity HDDs for data centers increased, boosting HDD suspensions.

• There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%. 
• Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher). 
• Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

• Reuters reports that the Ministry of Finance of Japan reclassified Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) to Type 3 (core designated company).
• Reportedly, Yageo’s application was made with a view to Shibaura’s businesses falling under the core category. A blocked deal would set back Prime Minister Ishiba’s goal to improve China relations. 
• The change to Shibaura’s designation to core helps explain the elongated approval process, as the Ministry of Finance and Yageo need time to agree on acceptable undertakings. 

• The Nikkei reports that Blackstone (BX US) will launch the tender offer for Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) just below JPY4,900, a 44.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
• While the rumoured offer is 1.5% below the last close, it is attractive as it resulted from an auction and represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
• It is unclear if the offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals. Blackstone is likely to secure irrevocables from activists like Orbis to project a secure path to completion. 

• Softbank Group (9984 JP) is about to release its earnings on August 7th. 
• The stock pulled back last week but this week is rallying. The rally can easily reach Q2 (12416) and Q3 (13003) resistance zones, if the earnings are good.
• If the earnings are disappointing, look for initial support at 11145 (Q3).  If earnings are really disappointing, look at 10086 (outliers zone).

• Q1 consolidated revenue reached JPY22.4bn, a 7.1% YoY increase, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of growth.
• Operating profit surged approximately 2.2x YoY to JPY1.1bn, with an OPM increase of 2.4pp to 4.8%.
• Orders increased by 8.9% YoY to JPY34.5bn, while the order backlog decreased by 3.0% YoY to JPY39.5bn.

• In Q1 FY03/26, revenue was JPY61.4bn (+7.1% YoY), operating profit JPY4.2bn (+35.8% YoY), net income JPY3.1bn (+48.7% YoY).
• Revenue growth in new detached housing market was JPY19.2bn (+12.6% YoY), driven by higher unit prices and demand.
• Revenue in the remodeling market increased to JPY19.6bn (+0.9% YoY), supported by enhanced product specifications and customer-aligned proposals.

• Organo’s Q1 FY03/26 results: Orders JPY59.6bn (+13.0% YoY), revenue JPY38.1bn (+20.5% YoY), operating profit JPY7.0bn (+73.8% YoY).
• Revised full-year FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY180.0bn (+19.0% YoY), revenue JPY175.0bn (+7.2% YoY), operating profit JPY34.0bn (+9.3% YoY).
• Electronics industry growth: Semiconductor projects in Taiwan, Japan, US, and increased sales of water treatment chemicals.

• Q1 FY03/26 sales decreased by 5.3% YoY, but operating profit increased by 22.1% due to price hikes.
• Orders declined due to fewer multi-year renewals, but segment profit rose by 58.7% YoY from profitability measures.
• Orders and sales fell significantly due to Azbil Telstar stake sale, impacting segment profit and margins.

• Q2 FY09/24 results show a 1.0% YoY decrease in GMV to JPY84.9bn and a 30.7% YoY revenue decline.
• In Q3 FY09/25, GMV increased due to cross-border e-commerce initiatives, despite foreign exchange challenges affecting user demand.
• BEENOS achieved 78.6% of GMV, 76.8% of revenue, 91.2% of operating profit, and 85.4% of net income targets.

• The company reported revenue of JPY4.7bn (+8.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY446mn (+60.3% YoY) in Q3 FY09/25.
• Photo wedding services saw revenue rise by JPY319mn (+7.8% YoY), with photo shoots up 6.7% YoY.
• The fitness gym business experienced a 21.0% YoY revenue drop due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

• The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
• That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
• The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.

• SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.
• Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.
• Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.

• Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August. 
• An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
• There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.

• Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.
• Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  
• While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.

• Revenue increased 3.5% YoY to JPY54.5bn, with major subsidiaries in the US, China, and Malaysia contributing growth.
• Operating profit decreased 3.3% YoY to JPY7.2bn due to higher SG&A expenses, despite revenue growth and improved cost ratio.
• Flavor Division revenue rose 4.4% YoY to JPY48.7bn, while Fragrance Division revenue declined 3.3% YoY to JPY5.8bn.

• Revenue reached JPY8.0bn (+32.3% YoY), with HENNGE One contributing JPY7.5bn (+34.3% YoY) and Professional Service JPY506mn (+8.1% YoY).
• Operating profit was JPY1.6bn (+72.3% YoY), with a margin of 19.7% (+4.6pp YoY); gross profit was JPY6.9bn (+35.7% YoY).
• SG&A expenses rose to JPY5.3bn (+27.6% YoY), including JPY618mn in advertising (+34.1% YoY) and JPY2.0bn in personnel (+21.9% YoY).

• Cellebrite is a quality business in digital forensics, a market leader in the industry
• Cellebrite has strong financials, including high margins, free cash flow conversion, and a bootstrap structure

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• Revenue was JPY131.8bn (+18.9% YoY), operating profit JPY5.0bn (+111.0% YoY), and net income JPY2.7bn (+259.6% YoY).
• Products HR business revenue was JPY58.4bn (+9.9% YoY), segment profit JPY1.7bn (+46.0% YoY), driven by semiconductor demand.
• Real Estate business revenue was JPY24.8bn (+81.9% YoY), segment profit JPY2.1bn (+578.2% YoY), despite delayed property handovers.

• Operating revenue in Q1 FY03/26 was JPY5.5bn, a decrease of JPY9mn YoY, with origination-related revenue down 9.5%.
• Operating expenses increased by JPY362mn YoY to JPY5.0bn, driven by higher finance and personnel costs.
• Pre-tax profit declined by 45.0% YoY to JPY437mn, with profit attributable to owners down 43.5% YoY.

• Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) revenue declined 1% YoY to ¥230.7B, impacted by APAC business restructuring, reduced drug prices in Japan, despite the growth in North America and EMEA.
• The company remains heavily dependent on Crysvita generating almost 43% of the total revenue of the company. Crysvita sales rose 10% YoY to ¥99.8B in 1H25.
• The next big trigger to the stock price would be the FDA decision on approval of ziftomenib, due in November.

• Tokyo Electron’s share price dropped 18% on Friday following the announcement of weak Q1 results and a huge downward revision to H2 FY Mar-26 guidance. 
• Push-Outs and/or cancellations of orders due to the uncertainty caused by President Trump apparently caught managment by surprise. Costs also rising as management ramps up capex and R&D.
• Impact of Trump’s yet-to-be-announced tariffs on semiconductors is still unknown, but 15% base rate on Japan already a negative. 

• On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements. 
• The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
• But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money. 

• On Friday 1 August, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and subsidiary Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) announced the parent would buy out the sub at ¥4,200/share. 
• This seems light given the structure of the balance sheet (lots of net receivables – a bunch against the buyer) but it would be awfully tough to see this broken.
• As it is a long-dated deal, I expect it trades too tight early on, then may flatten or fade.

• The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
• Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
• There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.

• Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 19% YoY (negative Fx impact of 7%) revenue growth during Q1FY26 to ¥108B, mainly driven by North America.
• Orgovyx witnessed growth in medicare patients due to reduction in out-of-pocket caps and Gemtesa on the other hand improved market share employing price focussed strategy.
• Sumitomo Pharma is well on track moving ahead of the significant losses suffered in FY23 and FY24, focusing on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers.

• With nearly half of companies listed on TSE having a P/B ratio of less than 1, many investors are likely to question the appropriateness of executives receiving fixed remuneration.
• Incorporating TSR into the compensation system will likely motivate companies to increase shareholder returns, which is a good thing if it leads to the return of unused cash to shareholders.
• As long as fixed compensation remains high, there won’t be much incentive to put a lot of cash into growth investments that boost corporate value.

• Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) sees 7% revenue growth in 1H25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+9% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify franchise were strong.
• Otsuka kept 2025 revenue guidance unchanged, the company raised guidance for business, operating, and net profits for 2025 mainly due to lower than anticipated operating expenses due to Fx impact.
• Otsuka stated that pharmaceutical business has no impact by additional US tariffs. Two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, new launches should further drive growth.

• Revenue increased by 8.9% YoY to JPY82.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 3.4% YoY to JPY4.9bn.
• SG&A expenses rose 17.5% YoY to JPY7.3bn, influenced by investments in human resources and IT infrastructure.
• Total operating assets increased 8.6% YoY to JPY1.24tn, driven by growth in finance and operating leases.