Japan

• Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP). 
• The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
• They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

• Until the latest accounting scandal, Nidec was just another stupidly over-valued company that chased too many rainbows and missed too many targets.
• Now, finally, it has fallen to interesting valuations and there is a real incentive to fix the things that need fixing. 
• Nidec is a governance nightmare with poor oversight, a history of bad strategic decisions, and shoddy execution. If these are fixed, though, the upside is enormous.

• Human Made (456A JP) raised US$116m in its Japan IPO.
• Human Made Inc. is a Japan-based apparel and lifestyle company. Its business model centers on producing high-value, limited-supply apparel and goods. 
• In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Q2 results confirmed a clear earnings inflection, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand, improving ASPs, and recovering smartphone NAND volumes.
• Q3 guidance signals record revenue and further margin expansion supported by tight NAND supply and AI-linked storage demand.
• Despite near-term pressure from Bain’s selldown, long-term fundamentals remain intact; valuation discounts justify a ¥12,500 target and accumulate-on-weakness stance.

• OHBA (hereafter, the Company) is a general construction consulting firm boasting a leading market share in the field of urban planning.
• In the construction consulting industry, there were 56 companies with annual sales of JPY 5 bn or more and 106 companies with JPY 2 bn or more in the 12 months from January to December 2024.
• The Company ranks 24th, positioning it as a mid-tier player. Over its century-long history, however, the Company has specialized in urban development fields such as city planning, and in this domain, it holds the top domestic market share, ahead of the runner-up, Nippon Koei Urban Space, by just under JPY 1 bn in annual sales.

• SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last year.
• Key advances included: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house developed glaucoma treatment [H- 1337] Phase IIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line drug”)
• 2) commenced joint development Japan Phase II clinical trials of regenerative cell therapy [DWR-2206] with ActualEyes, and successfully completed all transplants

• Gold’s outlook is strongly supported by a dovish Federal Reserve, structural de-dollarization trends, and increasing central bank demand for a strategic stagflation hedge.
• The Nikkei 225’s high is vulnerable to concentrated risk in the technology sector and geopolitical volatility, necessitating a tactical approach to portfolio protection.
• Deep dive into a two-part portfolio-defensive structure, pairing a strategic long-term inflation asset with a short-term volatility hedge on a key equity index.

• For years, overseas investors have raised concerns about management’s lack of awareness regarding fiduciary duty to fulfill corporate value growth and shareholder returns, which are integral to maximizing shareholder interest.
• While the weak yen has certainly increased the “foreign currency translation adjustment” and impacted ROE, it has also had a positive effect on profits.
• Among the three components of ROE, Net Profit Margin showed the highest correlation. There is a problem with accumulating cash on the balance sheet without investing to improve profit margins.

• Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) recorded153% YoY revenue growth to ¥41B for Leqembi during H1FY26, driven by significant growth in Japan (+177% YoY) and Americas (+84% YoY).
• For FY26, Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY.  H1FY26 Leqembi revenue represents progress rate of more than 50%, thereby raising conviction of meeting full-year guidance.
• Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, Johnson & Johnson and Novo Nordisk should act in favor of Leqembi.  

• Q1-2 FY3/26 results were broadly in line with expectations, with OP reaching ¥1.44bn, the highest level at interim in the company’s history.
• The launch of Nintendo Switch 2 provided a strong tailwind to the DH Group, while AGEST Group returned to profitability as overseas restructuring neared completion.
• To further enhance group synergies and accelerate global expansion, the company divested identity last year and acquired HUWIZ SOLUTIONS this year, reshaping its portfolio toward higher-margin and growth-oriented opportunities. 

• Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
• The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
• Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges. 

• After the close today, BCPE Pangea Cayman announced plans to sell a stake of 36mm shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in an overnight block. It trades tomorrow.
• This is 6.7% of shares out, 1.5x ADV. The discount is 7-9%. But it is 35% of Max Real World Float. And probably gets tradable shares to 34+%, not 35%.
• That means another offering is likely near-term. The lockup is only 30 days it appears. There is possibly a fair bit of long-dated index demand.

• Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
• The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
• Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

• Bain aims to raise around US$2bn via selling around 6% of its stake in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP). The IPO linked lockup on its shareholding had expired in Jun 2025.
• Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
• In this note, we will talk about deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Today after the close, Tokyo-based Dear Life (3245 JP) announced a primary offering to raise approximately ¥7bn through 15% dilution. Implying a 13+% price drop to protect PER.
• But the company plans on growing earnings. It has some projects in inventory, but it obviously plans a lot of turnover this year and needs to replenish.
• The MTMP “slogan” is “2028 – Ride the Wave!”  This is a bit what investing in Tokyo real estate is like now. So one rides it until one doesn’t.

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing
• SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
• We have looked at past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is looking to sell its remaining stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) to raise up to US$154m via a cleanup block trade.
• This deal represents 1.6 days of ADV and is around 1% of shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• NS Group (471A JP) (NSG) is one of Japan’s leading rent guarantee service providers, offering payment guarantee and rent collection solutions to property owners and management companies.
• NSG aims to raise around US$256m in its Japan IPO via an entirely secondary offering, marking Bain Capital’s full exit from the company.
• In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

• Kioxia is a leading global supplier of NAND flash memory, experiencing a strong financial recovery driven by surging demand from AI, data centers, and smart devices.
• The company’s strategic focus is on technological leadership in 3D NAND and advanced SSDs, supported by a significant joint venture with Western Digital that enhances R&D and production scale.
• While the outlook is positive, key risks include the inherent cyclicality of the memory industry, intense competition from established players, and execution risks associated with ambitious margin and technology targets.

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• United Arrows is beginning to flex its market power by launching more new brands rather than just iterations of its eponymous name
• A key focus is a move to exploit the massive demand for Korean brands in Japan with Korean licenses for Nice Weather and Osoi.
• More licenses are expected in the near future as the select shop retailer looks to take more share of the premium market.

• The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
• As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
• That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.

• While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. 
• Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade – a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.
• Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade involving a basket of Korean consumer stocks (long) and  a basket of Japanese consumer stocks (short) over the next 3-6 months.
• The 10 Korean names (long basket) include Samyang Food, APR, Amorepacific Corp, Korean Air, CJ Corp, Classys, Nongshim, Shinsegae, Hotel Shilla, and Lotte Tour Development. 
• The 10 Japanese names (short basket) include Fast Retailing, Oriental Land, Kao Corp, Seibu Holdings, ANA Holdings, Shiseido, J.Front Retailing, Kose Corp, Pola Orbis Holdings, and Kyoritsu Maintenance. 

• Softbank Group (9984 JP) crashed nearly -11% between Thursday and Friday close, reaching deeply oversold extremes. 
• Softbank Group has declined for three consecutive weeks, posting a cumulative -37% correction over this period.
• Softbank Group‘s entry into the Outliers zone suggests an extreme oversold condition—potentially creating a tactical long setup for risk-tolerant traders.

• Share buybacks peak every year in June when AGMs are held, after which the “Quiet Period” begins. Toward the fiscal year-end, buybacks are expected as a means to resolve cross-shareholdings.
• Given that the capital profitability of all TSE-listed companies hasn’t shown improvement, investors must continue to call for reducing excess cash reserves through dissolution of cross-shareholdings and the share buybacks.
• Shareholders entrust management with the responsibility to maximize shareholder interest, which includes shareholder returns and corporate value growth. It’s natural for shareholders to demand that management fulfill this fiduciary duty.

• VisasQ is a dominant player in Japan’s expert network service (ENS) market, poised for global expansion following its strategic acquisition of US-based Coleman Research Group.
• The company exhibits a strong revenue growth trajectory, driven by the increasing demand for specialized knowledge in corporate strategy and investment decisions. However, profitability has been volatile, highlighted by a significant goodwill impairment charge in FY2024 related to the Coleman acquisition.
• Future growth hinges on successfully integrating Coleman, leveraging AI to enhance its service platform, and capitalizing on the expanding global ENS market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 16%.

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• NS Group (471A JP) is a Japanese property rent guarantee company. It is seeking to raise up to US$255 million. Pricing is on 1 December and listing is on 16 December.   
• The controlling shareholder is Bain Capital, which owns 51.0% of voting rights. The offering is a pure secondary sale by Bain.   
• The investment case rests on its unique market positioning, accelerating growth, sector-leading profitability, cash generation, and low leverage. 

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
• SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
• We have looked at past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison

• Ryohin Keikaku has once again exceeded expectations, posting record sales and profits that suggest its near-term ¥1 trillion target will easily be reached. 
• While worries over ubiquity remain, the trusting relationship between customer and brand has allowed rapid and successful category expansion which should deliver those targets.
• This includes overseas markets where Muji is now gaining momentum again in China and, at last, making the most of its brand in Europe.

• Onward has quietly but radically transformed its business from wholesale to omnichannel retail.
• Even more remarkably for a company whose average customer age was until very recently over 50, its latest brands now appeal to teens and 20s.
• The new brands exemplify how much this previously staid wholesaler has changed.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
• In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion, and Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s US$0.8 billion secondary offering. 
• Event-Driven developments: Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), Webjet Group (WJL AU). 

• I tally 34 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
• One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK). Technically, the Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) is new.
• Key updates/news also took place on: RPMGlobal (RUL AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Webjet (WJL AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). 

• During fiscal year 2024, which spans March 2024 to March 2025, the policy-held shares are estimated to have been reduced by approximately 20%.
• Financial institutions are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets, and as profits from Japanese operations stagnate, the rationale for maintaining cross-shareholdings with Japanese companies is diminishing.
• Some companies focused on the domestic market wish to continue holding cross-shareholdings due to business relationships. The gap between these companies and those expanding globally is expected to widen further.

• Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day’s average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
• Kioxia’s Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
• Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.

• Right On Co. Ltd. is a jeans and casual wear retailer facing a prolonged period of declining revenues and significant financial losses, driven by intense competition and shifting consumer preferences in the Japanese apparel market.
• Despite a challenging top-line trend, the company has shown some recent, albeit inconsistent, improvement in net income, suggesting that cost control measures may be taking effect. However, operating and free cash flows remain deeply negative, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
• The company’s strategy is centered on its core competency in denim, leveraging both national and private brands, and optimizing its nationwide network of stores, which are primarily located in shopping centers. A pivot towards enhancing e-commerce and adapting product assortments to local tastes is critical for a potential turnaround.

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• FY2025 operating profit sharply upgraded; earnings base rebased higher across FY2026–28.
• Engineered Materials accelerating with VSP™ and FaradFlex® capacity expansions; ~25–30% OP CAGR implied.
• Metals more resilient than expected; ¥50 bn buyback supports valuation despite recent re-rating.

• Cybozu is a dominant player in the Japanese groupware market, capitalizing on the nationwide push for digital transformation (DX). Its flagship no-code/low-code platform, Kintone, is a key growth driver, empowering businesses to create custom applications and streamline workflows.
• The company exhibits a strong financial track record, characterized by consistent double-digit revenue growth and improving profitability. The shift to a cloud-first, SaaS-based model has resulted in high gross margins and recurring revenue streams.
• Strategic focus is on expanding Kintone’s adoption within large enterprises and accelerating international growth, particularly in Southeast Asia. Investments in a partner ecosystem and new technologies like generative AI are expected to support long-term expansion, though they may impact short-term margins.

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• Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP) reported 7.9% YoY jump in revenue during H1FY26 driven by Beova, Tavneos and IT services amidst price revision pressures and generic competition.
• Kissei beat their H1FY26 guidance numbers. This compelled the company to revise their FY26 guidance numbers upwards.
• An NDA application was submitted in Japan in February 2025 for Linzagolix. The next big trigger would be Linzagolix receiving the approval for treatment of uterine fibroids in Japan.  

• Following on from a strong set of earnings in the previous quarter and an upward revision to FY guidance, Q1-3 FY12/25 results were a negative surprise, with both sales and OP being flat to down YoY.
• Results were impacted by Licence opportunities not closing as planned, and Consulting and Professional Services experiencing slower activity levels.
• Atypical for the company, Q3 FY12/25 OPM was negative, partly due to one-time event costs. 

Key points (machine generated)

• FISCO Ltd. anticipates a positive outlook due to strategic investments in AI robotics, with limited tariff risk impact.
• The projected price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is between 30 to 60 times, indicating strong growth expectations.
• The company revised its dividend forecast to 30.00 yen interim and 31.00 yen full-year, with a target payout ratio of 50% to 70%.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• FISCO Ltd.’s report indicates diminishing tariff risks and growth potential from AI robotics investments.
• The company has a price-earnings ratio forecast of 30 to 60 times and revised its interim dividend to 30.00 yen per share.
• Despite stock price increases, the dividend yield is approximately 2%, with a target payout ratio of 50% to 70%.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• FISCO Ltd.’s report highlights Toyoko’s transition of the CoolLaser business from R&D to monetization, projecting over 50% CAGR with 120 units sold.
• The stock price has risen post-listing, indicating investor confidence in Toyoko’s profit growth and favorable PER evaluation similar to AI sectors.
• The report anticipates record profits for the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by increasing demand from aging infrastructure globally.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• Caster, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market in October 2023, reported increased revenue but an operating loss for the fiscal year ending August 2025.
• The company focuses on alleviating labor shortages for SMEs by connecting them with remote workers, promoting remote work normalization.
• Caster has over 5,800 users, primarily from startups and SMEs, employs around 800 individuals, and operates entirely remotely.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
• Toyoda Gosei’s primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
• The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
• The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
• SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
• In this note we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
• I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share. 

• Northsand (446A JP) has raised US$140m in its Japan IPO.
• Northsand is a consulting firm that provides both IT and business consulting services. Established in 2015, it helps organizations improve efficiency, modernize operations, and achieve sustainable growth.
• In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Following TSE’s market restructuring, which raised listing maintenance standards, companies finding it difficult to maintain their listings under the previous conditions ar moving to markets where maintaining listings is easier.
• Even after transferring to a regional stock exchange, companies remain subject to listing fees, disclosures and annual securities reports. Despite this, companies maintain listing status to enhance credibility and visibility.
• A transition to regional stock exchanges risks further declines in trading liquidity, loss of engagement opportunities, and setbacks in management reforms such as governance and capital profitability improvements.

• Reliable momentum from a resilient model – JES delivered steady organic growth in Q1–2 FY3/26 and remains on track to reach its 20% operating margin target (pre–goodwill amortization) on a sustainable basis, in our view.
• Maintenance contracts and modernization unit volumes continued to grow at double-digit YoY rates, underscoring ongoing organic customer acquisition.
• The company is investing in engineers, building sufficient capacity to drive maintenance contract growth. 

• The combination of weaker-than- expected FY9/25 results, conservative near-term guidance, and maintaining medium-term objectives suggests that greater visibility will be needed before confidence in the earnings outlook can improve, in our view.
• Despite strong performance in the Sustainability segment, expectations for FY9/26 are for a modest YoY contraction before returning to growth.
• Although steady growth is expected in the Fine Chemicals and Life Science segments over the medium term, the company is likely to experience a moderation in growth before growth re-accelerates in FY9/27.

Key points (machine generated)

• Caster, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, reported revenue growth despite an operating loss for the fiscal year ending August 2025.
• The company specializes in connecting small and medium-sized enterprises with remote workers to address labor shortages and promote remote work.
• With over 5,800 users and 800 employees, Caster has developed a user-friendly platform and successfully implemented a full remote work model.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Mimasu is a pivotal player in the semiconductor supply chain, specializing in wafer processing and the sale of manufacturing equipment, boasting a leading global market share in reclaimed wafers.
• The company exhibits a robust long-term net income and EPS growth trajectory; however, this is contrasted by recent low revenue growth and significantly negative free cash flow, raising working capital concerns.
• A recent tender offer by major shareholder and key partner Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. to acquire all remaining shares is set to fully integrate Mimasu, potentially stabilizing its supply chain, enhancing technological development, and improving investment efficiency.

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• On 20 October, Murakami Group reported they’d gone over 5% in cash/asset-rich DeNA (2432 JP). Not easy with insiders+Crossholders at 39%, passive at 24%. But not impossible. 
• On 30 October, they reported they’d gone to 6.31% on 23 October (four days before they reported the 5%. 
• As reported here before, Murakami-san sometimes does what might charitably be called a headfake, less charitably a Pump ‘n Dump. 

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%. 
• In December 2021, Shinsei Bank was privatised by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) through a contentious tender offer at JPY2,800 per share. 
• The investment case rests on growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, accelerating revenue growth, rising margins and improving asset quality.

• Rapidly shifting technology could cause cable demand to plunge by 50% per unit of data center capacity as 800g becomes standard.
• We don’t anticipate any negative surprises in the coming 1-2 quarters, but we think consensus is overestimating post-3/26 EBIT by at least 20%.
• Even after a tech-led sell-off, at 25x EV/EBITDA, there is still no room for this kind of error. 

• CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 4QFY09/2025 results last week. Full-year and 4QFY09/2025 revenue and OP beat consensus as well as guidance by a huge margin.
• Despite reporting a set of strong results, CA’s share price has been down 15% which we think was driven by the company’s cautious guidance for FY09/2026.
• With a strong pipeline of gaming titles coupled with global expansion of English versions of newly released titles, we think CA’s FY09/2026 guidance is overly conservative.

• Japan–China relations have sharply deteriorated after Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, triggering diplomatic retaliation, security tensions, and the worst bilateral rift since 1972.
• Asics’ ¥90bn market-cap drop reflects concerns over its heavy reliance on Chinese consumers, both domestically and through inbound tourism, which drive roughly a quarter of profits.
• Markets may be underestimating the risk of prolonged geopolitical strain, threatening Asics’ 2026 outlook despite record current performance and secure near-term guidance.

• Yaoko is now called Blue Zone Holdings, and is shaking up Japan’s supermarket landscape by acquiring two well-matched regional chains just weeks after its launch. 
• The company plans to accelerate plans to acquire other smaller supermarket chains to build out into a national chain.
• The plan also signals a new wave of M&A in the sector as barriers to supermarket consolidation finally start to fall.

• Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) went public on 16 October 2025 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and has a current market cap of $2bn.
• Inclusion in Global indices is expected in February and June 2026, as the security meets Global eligibility criteria.
• A slight free float increase is anticipated at a subsequent review following the lock-up expiry of Qatar Holding.

• This insight details about Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) ‘s 1H performance and outlook for 2H
• We detail why 2H outlook is fluid and similar to “a cat on the wall” situation. Reasons mentioned in this insight.
• While company’s valuation is not cheap compared to peers but there is a possibility to perform better than estimates in 2H FY2025

Key points (machine generated)

• FISCO Ltd.’s report indicates No.1’s steady growth for the fiscal year ending February 2026, fueled by human resource investments and M&A.
• No.1 aims to support Japanese small and micro enterprises with information security equipment, office automation products, and consulting services.
• The company’s strategy includes expanding sales offices in Japan and enhancing customer relationships through a subscription-based consulting model.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• FISCO Ltd. reports steady growth for No.1 (TSE: 3562) in FY ending February 2026, driven by human resource investments and M&A.
• The company’s management philosophy focuses on supporting Japanese small and micro enterprises through comprehensive services in information security and OA-related products.
• No.1 is expanding operations in Japan, emphasizing a stock-type business model with consulting services and benefiting from synergies with Alexon Co., Ltd.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Today after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced changes to the terms of its Tender Offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), which faces an overbidder in SilverCape. 
• Hakuhodo had bid ¥1,970. Silvercape came over the top with a proposed ¥2,380 but a delay for approvals. DH is fighting against SilverCape because of “remaining minority shareholder risk.”
• That’s garbage. Utter blatherskite. Trumpworthy trumpery. Now Hakuhodo DY has lowered the minimum threshold making it hard to miss, and raised the price 2.3% to ¥2,015.

• Yesterday saw the announcement of a secondary offering structured like a delayed pricing ABO.
• 1.5mm shares which is 7.5% of shares out, 25% of Max Real World Float, and 9 days of ADV. There’s more cross-holdings to come out later at some point.
• Though it is not particularly expensive, Momentum is not this stock’s friend right now.

• Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) increased its Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) tender offer price by 2.3% to JPY2,015, 7.1% below the last close and 15.3% below SilverCape’s JPY2,380 offer.
• The lower limit has been reduced to a 24.67% ownership ratio. Hakuhodo’s confidence in passing the EGM share consolidation vote relies on AGM voting trends and passive votes.
• Hakuhodo’s acceptances as of 28 October exceed the lower limit. The revised Hakudodo offer will severely dent the chances of SilverCape’s offer.

• The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan’s largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.
• A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity’s market leadership.
• These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.

• SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
• SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Internet Initiative Japan (IIJ) is a pioneering Japanese IT services provider, well-positioned to capitalize on the country’s accelerating digital transformation. Its core strengths lie in its robust network infrastructure and a comprehensive suite of services spanning connectivity, cloud, and systems integration.
• The company is experiencing solid growth, driven by strong demand for cloud services and large-scale network projects. The mid-term plan targets continued revenue and profit expansion by deepening relationships with its large enterprise and government client base through integrated service offerings.
• While competition from domestic telecoms and global cloud giants is a key challenge, IIJ’s established reputation for reliability, advanced technological capabilities, and loyal customer base provide a solid foundation for sustained growth. However, recent cybersecurity incidents highlight the operational risks inherent in the business.

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• Positioned to rebuild – FY9/25 results saw MRI record YoY revenue growth for the first time in two years, profit growth for the first time in three years, and a record-high GPM of 23.7% driven by high consultant utilization.
• Earnings visibility is improving, driven by strong order growth (+19.4 % YoY at TTC) and a rising backlog.
• However, we believe FY9/26 guidance indicates management’s priority is to rebuild the business, with key initiatives to expand the concentration domains in TTC (electric power and energy, medical and long-term care, business analytics and AI) and the growth area in ITS (public and electric power, HR and education, financial, DA and AI). 

• Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) reported rather underwhelming earnings in H1FY26, with revenue, operating profit and net profit witnessing significant drop as upfront payments received last fiscal put pressure.
• Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue rise 1.5% to ¥9.3B on AG launch, while Ecclock helped drive revenue growing 12% YoY to ¥1.5B.
• FY26 guidance revised downwards to ¥86.3B (down 8% YoY). Kaken needs an immediate strong revenue driver to rescue it from pangs of drug price revision and generic competition.

• ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) ‘s strong performance in H1 FY25 is overshadowed by weak guidance for H2 FY25.
• We expect H2 FY25 to be a pause in the structural reform journey, and the details are discussed in this insight.
• Trading at just 0.8x P/B, we continue to like the name and remain optimistic about the second Mid-Term Management Plan; details are shared in this insight.

Key points (machine generated)

• Ichigo Co., Ltd. reported a 64.3% increase in operating profit to 11,261 million yen for the interim period ending February 2026.
• Sales rose by 40.6% to 51,024 million yen, driven by strong stock and flow revenue.
• The company focuses on real estate value enhancement and renewable energy, aiming for record profits in the current fiscal year.

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• A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.  
• At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
• The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

• United Urban Investment (8960 JP) is looking to raise US$155m in a primary placement.
• The purpose is for financing of its medium-term growth strategy plan which includes the acquisition of new assets.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank 1.8% vs forecast 2.5% (annualised), while consumption slowed to 0.1%. This is the first contraction in six quarter.
• The cause is the drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs, automakers in particular plummeted, following a period of hiking exports before tariffs came into effect.
• We’ve consistently flagged the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as overbought. This tactical short-term analysis pinpoints critical support (and resistance, but we think the index may fall).

• Yesterday post-close, Sakata Inx Corp (4633 JP) announced a ¥6bn+ selldown offering by financial crossholders. There may be others to come, but not clear how much.
• The company has had a good couple of years, the stock has reached book value. Optimised balance sheet ROE now clears 10%.
• Index impact is limited in all respects. Low vol, low multiple, decent dividend, high earnings progression on decent business growth are all positive factors. 

• We were correct not buying at a 51 FPE (at the top), despite our bullish view on their oncology portfolio of drugs.
• With hindsight, we were early at the end Oct 2024 at 39 FPE – numbers disappointed and the counter derated significantly.
• At a 16.5 FPE, expectations are very different. Enhertu has moved from strength to strength and has just achieved its first billion dollar quarter.

• Celsys reported cumulative Q3 FY12/25 sales of JPY7.0bn (+15.9% YoY), operating profit of JPY2.2bn (+39.0% YoY).
• Celsys revised FY12/25 forecast: sales JPY9.3bn, operating profit JPY2.9bn, net income JPY1.4bn, citing strong subscription growth.
• Creator Support segment sales JPY6.0bn (+19.4% YoY), driven by CLIP STUDIO PAINT upgrades and global expansion efforts.

• Canon Electronics is strategically pivoting towards high-growth sectors, including satellite technology and medical components, leveraging its core competencies in precision optics and electronics to diversify revenue streams beyond its traditional markets.
• The company demonstrates a solid financial position with consistent revenue growth, improving profitability, and a strong operating cash flow generation, enabling investments in R&D and strategic initiatives.
• While the company shows promising growth in new ventures, it faces challenges from intense competition in the electronics industry and potential margin pressures from fluctuating raw material costs and supply chain dynamics.

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• Allegro MicroSystems reported its second quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, showcasing robust financial performance and strategic gains, particularly in the automotive and data center markets.
• The company achieved net sales of $214 million, depicting a 5% sequential increase and a 14% year-over-year growth.
• The gross margin was recorded at 49.6%, with a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.13, both exceeding the company’s guided ranges.

• CYND is a dominant, founder-led Vertical Market Software (VMS) provider for Japan’s beauty salon industry, capitalizing on the nationwide push for digital transformation.
• The company exhibits a strong growth profile, evidenced by a 3-year revenue CAGR of 27.2%, but has faced significant net income volatility and margin compression in recent years.
• While the stock appears inexpensive on some metrics and operates in a secularly growing niche, its small size, limited liquidity, and lack of sell-side coverage present notable risks for institutional investors.

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• Izumi is joining the race to buy up more of Japan’s food and FMCG retail share. 
• Currently one of the dominant players in Kyushu, Izumi says it will use M&A to increase store numbers over the next decade.
• This will also mean pivoting more towards food rather than its traditional GMS format just like its competitors.