Most Read

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.

Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced in June they were extending the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
Yesterday, the company announced it would establish a Third-Party Investigative Committee based on suspected improper accounting at the sub of a Chinese sub 1yr ago and parent management knowledge.
There’s been a lot of work done. Now the committee digs in. The announcement smacks of IMS issues. Today the marketcap fell 22% or nearly ¥800bn on ¥200mm of accounting.

Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance

Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.

Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

By Punit Khanna

Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.

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[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Sep25), TSE Presents Interesting Feedback

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
216 new CGRs filed in Aug-2025 (after 783 in July, 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input name, see changes.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 2 Sep (and 9 July before that). The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 2 Sep docs may be worth reading in parts.

HEW: Pauses On And Off

Another disappointing payroll release provides the fundamental cover needed for the Fed to end its pause with a rate cut on 17 September without being too political.
The BoE is starting its own pause, and if it goes a quarter without cutting, historically, it’s not resumed the cycle. Its DMP survey confirmed inflation’s persistent problem.
Another upside inflation surprise seems set to keep the ECB on hold amid record low unemployment. We also expect it to preserve its view that policy is in a good place.

BoE Survey Says Inflation Persists

CFOs are telling the BoE that they plan to keep raising prices by more than 3% in 2026. The BoE should take notice, as this survey’s previous warnings have proven accurate.
Expected increases reflect the passthrough of further wage increases beyond a pace consistent with the target. They exceed even our already hawkish forecasts.
The BoE is unlikely to realise the sharp drop in wage growth it expects by year’s end, without a shock to break the current regime, bolstering our call for no more rate cuts.

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

By Special Situation Investments

On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania.
The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged.

Merger and Acquisition Updates: TaskUs, scPharmaceuticals, Apiam, Plymouth, Mayne Pharma, Banxa, and DallasNews

TaskUs privatization bid at $16.50/share faces opposition; market anticipates improved offer before September 10 shareholder vote.
Apiam Animal Health receives A$0.88/share takeover offer; largest shareholder supports, board likely to recommend upon binding agreement.
Banxa shareholders approve OSL Group acquisition; regulatory consents pending, closing expected Q4’25–Q1’26, spread at 21%.

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Sep 05

Most Read: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Newmont Mining, Alibaba, Nidec Corp, CRH , Metaplanet, Hesai Group, DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions
Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
Hesai Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Recovering, a Look at Possible Trading Setup
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Speedy Turnaround On Pre-Cons
Ohayo Japan | Fresh Peak on Weak Jobs Data

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK) said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation’s largest gold mine.
A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.

Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced in June they were extending the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
Yesterday, the company announced it would establish a Third-Party Investigative Committee based on suspected improper accounting at the sub of a Chinese sub 1yr ago and parent management knowledge.
There’s been a lot of work done. Now the committee digs in. The announcement smacks of IMS issues. Today the marketcap fell 22% or nearly ¥800bn on ¥200mm of accounting.

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the September 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (3rd September 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&A events which affect the index the next two quarters).

Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance

Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

Hesai Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Recovering, a Look at Possible Trading Setup

Hesai Group (HSAI US) plans to raise around US$200-300m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 31st August 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Speedy Turnaround On Pre-Cons

Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK) announced last night all pre-cons have been squared away. That must be some kind of record to secure SAMR approval for a Hong Kong-listed privatisation.
Back on the 12th August, Kangji Medical announced a less-than-ideal Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
What next? The Scheme Doc dispatch remains the 31st October, unless announced otherwise, as the Cayman Court is still on its six week “vacation”.

Ohayo Japan | Fresh Peak on Weak Jobs Data

By Mark Chadwick

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high, gaining 0.8% after an afternoon rally helped investors shake off disappointing private employment data
Treasury yields dropped following the ADP report, easing pressure on markets after the 30-year yield briefly topped 5% Wednesday
Nidec shares plummeted 22% to 2,420 yen, hitting the lower limit of the price range, after the company announced a possible case of improper accounting treatment at Chinese subsidiary

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Sep 04

Most Read: Koei Tecmo Holdings, Alibaba, Newmont Mining, ZEEKR, Ashimori Industry, Pacific Industrial, Robinhood Markets , LS Marine Solution, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn
ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head
S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP
LS Cable – To Issue an EB Worth 400 Billion Won Using LS Marine Solution as Base Asset?
Cutting After Pauses
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Precondition Satisfied for the Light Scheme Offer

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)

In December 2021, Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) announced a complex but lower-impact move to increase float share count in order to stay listed on TSE Prime.
Scheme: buyback from two holders plus CB issuance. Unfortunately, shares did not rise enough to convert the CBs so as of March 2025, the tradable share criteria was not met.
So now the two main holders are selling more shares and the company is diluting holders with new issuance to get float/tradable shares up with a US$280mm offering.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote

On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently.
The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case

Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, has increased his Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) to an 18.36% ownership ratio at an average buy-in price of JPY4,154.28 vs. the JPY4,140 tender offer.
Crucially, in today’s disclosure, Takateru Murakami outlines the rationale for his stake building, which centres on the book value being materially understated if certain land were revalued at market rates.
Maintaining current terms is increasingly not a viable option. Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is likely to pursue a strategy of either increasing its offer or lowering the minimum acceptance condition.

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head

Effissimo reported a 5.87% ownership ratio in Pacific Industrial (7250 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,235.91 per share is 9.1% above the JPY2,050 MBO offer.
Effissimo buying significantly above terms is justifiable as the offer implied a P/B of 0.71x. Effissimo is agitating for either a bump or an opportunity to participate in the back-end.
With the offer closing on 8 September and shares trading 16.9% above terms, the Ogawas have little choice but to revise terms.

S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.
Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) or AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to be the third addition, with sector balance acting as the limiting factor.
CRH (CRH US) recently regained eligibility following positive August earnings and could be a surprise addition if the tech sector is excluded.

LS Cable – To Issue an EB Worth 400 Billion Won Using LS Marine Solution as Base Asset?

Major major local media including Maekyung Business Daily and Chosun Daily have reported that LS Cable & System is pushing forward with an EB worth 400 billion won.
The target stock to be used in the EB is LS Cable’s shares in its subsidiary LS Marine Solution.
LS Marine Solution is one of the largest marine engineering companies in Korea, specializing in the installation and maintenance of submarine cables, offshore wind infrastructure, and marine energy systems.

Cutting After Pauses

The BoE and Fed rarely resume cutting cycles after a pause, yet the Fed seems set to break its hold with a cut just as the BoE and ECB enter their own pauses.
2002-03 is the best historical parallel for the Fed, which signals potential cuts should be shallow and are likely to be reversed. Politics is no match for the fundamental need.
Persistently excessive UK pressures should prevent the BoE from cutting in November or beyond, with a quarterly pause historically unlikely to resolve in another rate cut.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Precondition Satisfied for the Light Scheme Offer

The precondition for Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)’s scheme privatisation from a consortium is satisfied. The offer, which has been declared final, is at HK$9.25 per share.
The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). Crucially, the blocking stake is below the substantial disclosure threshold.
Despite the recent derating of peers, the vote risk remains medium-to-high due to a solid interim, the imminent surgical robot growth story, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

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Sep 03

Most Read: Cambricon Technologies Lt, Lifedrink , Koei Tecmo Holdings, Alibaba, SK Square , HKBN Ltd, Kakaopay and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Changes & Capping Lead to US$3.3bn Trade
[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown
[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers
HKBN (1310 HK): Mobile’s Offer Is Done. Now For The Back End
Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals
EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives
HEM: Politicised Policy Pricing
Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Changes & Capping Lead to US$3.3bn Trade

There is 1 constituent change for the STAR50 INDEX and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index at the next rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 12 September.
We estimate one-way turnover of 6.1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 23.8bn (US$3.3bn).
There will be huge capping outflows for Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH) following the massive rally in the stock over the last couple of months.

[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown

Today post-close, Lifedrink (2585 JP) announced the Sunrise PE funds which own 22% of the company will sell their stake in a clean-up offering with pricing in 8 days.
This offering comes 8 trading days after a new post-earnings all-time-high. At 24x ADV, the offering will increase Max Real World Float by 50+%.
There are some index and buyback supply/demand dynamics to note. It’s a heavy offering, so bullish/bearish may be a matter of horizon.

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)

In December 2021, Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) announced a complex but lower-impact move to increase float share count in order to stay listed on TSE Prime.
Scheme: buyback from two holders plus CB issuance. Unfortunately, shares did not rise enough to convert the CBs so as of March 2025, the tradable share criteria was not met.
So now the two main holders are selling more shares and the company is diluting holders with new issuance to get float/tradable shares up with a US$280mm offering.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)

The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.

Holdco NAV Discount Compression Play on Korea’s Next Policy Narrative: Mandatory Tender Offers

Korean equities are stalled; macro catalysts are absent. Street focus shifts from treasury share cancellations to next year’s mandatory tender offers, now seen as the top policy driver.
Pre-MTO trades focus on holding companies with wide NAV discounts or low controlling stakes, front-running policy-driven re-ratings before minority shareholders capture control premiums.
Focus on 32 Korean holding companies >KRW 500B; those with wide NAV discounts and lighter controlling stakes—SK’s holding companies, Samsung C&T, Hanwha, LG, LS—are prime re-rating plays.

HKBN (1310 HK): Mobile’s Offer Is Done. Now For The Back End

China Mobile (941 HK)‘s Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) will be declared unconditional tomorrow (3rd September), the first closing date.
As I type, 19.03% of shares out have tendered, lifting Mobile’s stake to 48.9%. Additional shares will tip in today and tomorrow, as per your typical last minute flurry.
It is not Mobile’s intention to delist HKBN. There will be investors playing the backend on the expectation of a higher Offer down the track.

Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals

Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) is looking to raise around US$270m from a primary and secondary placement.
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 37.6 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 6.1% of the shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives

Dovish hopes for EA disinflation continue to be disappointed by resilient outcomes. The rise to 2.1% in August amid sticky core pressures is opposite to the dovish narrative.
Euro appreciation’s disinflationary shock is being offset by domestic resilience, which was most surprising in Northern Europe. Our errors were relatively small and balanced.
Ongoing upside surprises have defied recent consensus expectations of a drift down to 1.8%. The ECB faces broad upside news that should reassure it against cutting again.

HEM: Politicised Policy Pricing

Persistent inflationary pressures pared dovish guidance and pricing for the BoE and ECB, but Fed pricing is stuck.
Blocking a rare resumption of Fed easing looks unlikely, but history suggests cuts would be shallow and reversed.
Peer pressure is weak during a policy mistake. The BoE faces domestic problems that prevent further easing.

Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]

Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.

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Sep 02

Most Read: Cambricon Technologies Lt, Yutaka Giken, Lifedrink , Dongfeng Motor, Mayne Pharma, Shandong Gold Mining , Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, HKBN Ltd, Apiam Animal Health, Samsung Life Insurance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Changes & Capping Lead to US$3.3bn Trade
[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen
[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Sep) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Kangji, Mayne, Santos, Shibaura, CareNet
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides
Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares
Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed
HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases
Clearing up the FSS’s Sudden Call on Samsung Life’s Samsung Elec Stake Accounting Shift

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Changes & Capping Lead to US$3.3bn Trade

There is 1 constituent change for the STAR50 INDEX and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index at the next rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 12 September.
We estimate one-way turnover of 6.1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 23.8bn (US$3.3bn).
There will be huge capping outflows for Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH) following the massive rally in the stock over the last couple of months.

[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen

Honda Motor (7267 JP) and Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) have arranged to buy Honda’s 69.7%-owned subsidiary Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) in a Tender Offer.
The transaction structure means Motherson buys Yutaka for less than net cash but even assuming Motherson pay minority TOB price for everything, TOB ex-net cash = 0.05x PBR, <1x EBITDA.
But they are paying less. They are paying ¥12.4bn less than net cash, and getting the other ¥58bn of net assets (¥23bn inventory, the rest in hard assets) for free.

[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown

Today post-close, Lifedrink (2585 JP) announced the Sunrise PE funds which own 22% of the company will sell their stake in a clean-up offering with pricing in 8 days.
This offering comes 8 trading days after a new post-earnings all-time-high. At 24x ADV, the offering will increase Max Real World Float by 50+%.
There are some index and buyback supply/demand dynamics to note. It’s a heavy offering, so bullish/bearish may be a matter of horizon.

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Sep) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Kangji, Mayne, Santos, Shibaura, CareNet

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides

On 29 August, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range.
At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory.
However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up.

Shandong Gold Mining Placement – H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Simcere Pharma Placement – First Primary Raising, past Deals Have Been Mixed

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m via a top-up placement.
This is the first primary raising by the company since its listing. There have been a few secondary deals, with mixed results.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

By Special Situation Investments

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.

Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases

Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer at A$0.88/share with an 11% spread, supported by founder Dr. Chris Richards.
Plymouth Industrial REIT has a $24.10/share bid from Sixth Street Capital, with a 14-15% spread and board review ongoing.
DallasNews has two takeover offers: $15/share from Hearst and $18.5/share from Alden, requiring two-thirds shareholder approval.

Clearing up the FSS’s Sudden Call on Samsung Life’s Samsung Elec Stake Accounting Shift

Today’s FSS IFRS17 ruling is an accounting fix (equity vs. liability), not the Samsung Life Law, which is a regulatory cap on affiliate stakes based on market value.
The FSS ruling signals Samsung Life doesn’t need to treat its Samsung Electronics stake as a forced-sale liability, lowering near-term sale risk.
This eases the overhang, delays potential stake moves, and reinforces the relative underperformance setup on Samsung C&T highlighted in earlier posts.

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Sep 01

Most Read: Sanrio, Yutaka Giken, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Alibaba, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Hyundai Glovis, Gemvax & Kael and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Changes & Capping Lead to US$3.3bn Trade
Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War
5 Keys to Unlocking Japanese Superstocks
Alibaba (BABA US): Why Did the Stock Rally Despite 2Q25 Operating Profit Dip?
Is NPS Really Going for Board Seat Play Via Cumulative Voting? Field Check on This Narrative
Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Retreat; Trump Tariffs Unlawful
Hyundai Glovis: Cumulative Voting System Could Improve Corporate Governance of Hyundai Motor Group
Gemvax & Kael – Rights Offering of 249 Billion Won

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.

[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen

Honda Motor (7267 JP) and Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) have arranged to buy Honda’s 69.7%-owned subsidiary Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) in a Tender Offer.
The transaction structure means Motherson buys Yutaka for less than net cash but even assuming Motherson pay minority TOB price for everything, TOB ex-net cash = 0.05x PBR, <1x EBITDA.
But they are paying less. They are paying ¥12.4bn less than net cash, and getting the other ¥58bn of net assets (¥23bn inventory, the rest in hard assets) for free.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Changes & Capping Lead to US$3.3bn Trade

There is 1 constituent change for the STAR50 INDEX and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index at the next rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 12 September.
We estimate one-way turnover of 6.1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 23.8bn (US$3.3bn).
There will be huge capping outflows for Cambricon Technologies Lt (688256 CH) following the massive rally in the stock over the last couple of months.

Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War

By Ming Lu

The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls.
We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food deliveries, because competitors’ earnings were even worse.
The stock surged by 13% in NYSE after the result release, but we still believe it has an upside of 48% for next twelve months.

5 Keys to Unlocking Japanese Superstocks

By Michael Allen

We looked at the 40 companies in Japan that returned the best 5-year relative returns over the past 20 years. The average relative return was 1,965%.
The most consistent common trait of all these stocks was that most had underperformed the market in the previous 2 years. The average underperformance was -61%.
Valuation was hugely important, but not the way you’d expect. The stocks often started at a modest discount, but more importantly, they always ended at massive premiums.

Alibaba (BABA US): Why Did the Stock Rally Despite 2Q25 Operating Profit Dip?

By Devi Subhakesan

Alibaba (BABA US) jumped 12.9% on Friday following better than expected 2Q2025 results and upbeat management commentary.
Investors cheered growth plans centered around Consumption and AI + Cloud, signaling confidence in the company’s long-term strategy.
2Q2025 operating profits dipped slightly, as higher costs in quick commerce were largely offset by growth in other business segments.

Is NPS Really Going for Board Seat Play Via Cumulative Voting? Field Check on This Narrative

Short-Term, pinpointing exact tickers off this NPS/cumulative voting narrative is tough—activism risk is real, but predicting moves in governance-sensitive names is still premature.
NPS may go aggressive, potentially sparking a market-wide narrative. If limited activism unwinds, Korean stocks could see a broad re-rate, beyond just individual governance names.
Tactically, consider enhanced setups in these names under a passive framework, while closely monitoring governance developments and NPS-driven activism for actionable alpha in individual tickers.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Retreat; Trump Tariffs Unlawful

By Mark Chadwick

US equities retreated Friday as investors locked in profits, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the Nasdaq off 1.2%
A federal appeals court ruled that most of Donald Trump’s global tariffs were unlawful, finding his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded presidential authority
Major Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed companies are increasingly appointing outside directors as board chairmen, with 109 companies doing so as of August 2025

Hyundai Glovis: Cumulative Voting System Could Improve Corporate Governance of Hyundai Motor Group

A major critical reason Hyundai Glovis has been outperforming this year has been due to the potential passage of the cumulative voting system under second amendment to the Commercial Act.
In addition, Hyundai Glovis’ profits have been improving. Hyundai Glovis is also expected to benefit from the continued higher use of robotics in its operations.
The value of its Boston Dynamics is also becoming more highlighted. Hyundai Glovis currently has a 10.9% stake in Boston Dynamics.

Gemvax & Kael – Rights Offering of 249 Billion Won

On 29 August, Gemvax & Kael (082270 KS) (Gemvax) announced a rights offering capital raise of 249 billion won.
Gemvax will issue 6.7 million new shares in this rights offering, representing 16% of its outstanding shares.
The expected rights offering price is 37,100 won which is 13.4% lower than current price. We are negative on this rights offering.

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Aug 31

Most Read: Xiaomi, BYD, CaoCao, Pop Mart, China Telecom (H), Giant Biogene, Horizon Robotics, Fast Retailing, Santos Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII): Methodology Change & Impact
HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade
HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance
HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
HEW: Policy Under Pressure
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Mayne Pharma, Shengjing Bank, Carenet, Austindo Nusantara, Ashimori

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII): Methodology Change & Impact

Last evening, Hang Seng announced a methodology change for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) with implementation in two phases.
The capping methodology will be updated at the September rebalance and the turnover and sector requirements will be updated at the December rebalance.
The updated capping scheme increases turnover and flow in September, while there could be one constituent change for the index at the December rebalance.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

As forecast, Pop Mart (9992 HK) will replace J&T Global Express (1519 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.
Pop Mart is also being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 – maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.

HEW: Policy Under Pressure

President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Cook, potentially gaining a supportive majority on the Fed, raises the risk that US policy overstimulates the economy.
Policy peers should not be pressured to mirror mistakes. The ECB faces data that keep accumulating hawkish pressures, but others are more susceptible, like the BOK.
Non-farm payroll data provide the last hope of blocking a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, a rise in EA inflation to 2.1% should help rule out another ECB rate cut.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Mayne Pharma, Shengjing Bank, Carenet, Austindo Nusantara, Ashimori

I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Dongfeng (489 HK), Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJT IJ), Shengjing Bank (2066 HK), and HD Heavy (329180 KS)/HD Mipo (010620 KS). .
Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), and Ashimori Industry (3526 JP).

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Aug 30

Most Read: Mayne Pharma, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Hyundai Autoever , Fast Retailing, XtalPi Holdings, Carenet Inc, Palo Alto Networks, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Disagrees With Cosette On MAC
Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
[Quiddity Index Aug25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs, 6 DELs, Two Recommended Trades
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
QuantumPharm US$750m Lockup Expiry – Financial Investors Checked 35% of Stock into CCASS
CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT
Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement
Palo Alto’s $25B CyberArk Deal: Major US and Global Index Implications Ahead
RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs
HEW: Policy Under Pressure

Mayne Disagrees With Cosette On MAC

As widely speculated, Cosette asserted to Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) on the 17th May a Material Adverse Change (MAC) has occurred.
Mayne disagrees, and views the pre-requisites for a MAC, as defined in the SID, have not been established.
What now? The Scheme is not terminated. Both parties remain in consultation. If those talks are not satisfactory (say, a price reduction [my guess]), Cosette said it will walk.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

[Quiddity Index Aug25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs, 6 DELs, Two Recommended Trades

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
We expect up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs for the December-2025 index rebal based on the latest available data. Same count as a month ago, but 5/12 name changes.
We have new charts available for all expected ADDs/DELs showing a variety of data we think worthwhile in terms of judging trade opportunity and risk. And two recommended trades.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.

QuantumPharm US$750m Lockup Expiry – Financial Investors Checked 35% of Stock into CCASS

By Clarence Chu

QuantumPharm (2228 HK) listed in Hong Kong after raising US$126m towards the bottom end of its IPO price range. Its six-month lockup will expire on 12th Dec 2024.
QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT

Kaname Capital reported a 5.80% ownership ratio in Carenet Inc (2150 JP). Most of the shares were purchased on August 18 and 19, i.e., after the announcement of the offer.
Kaname has a recent history of agitating for a bump in the Proto Corp (4298 JP) tender offer. Kaname failed to prevent Proto from being privatised.
EQT will initially take a wait-and-see approach. If Kaname acquires a 10% stake, EQT will start to worry, but it has several options to respond.

Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

By Rikki Malik

While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness
The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are still intact
Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world

Palo Alto’s $25B CyberArk Deal: Major US and Global Index Implications Ahead

By Harry Kalfas

Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) is acquiring CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR US) in a $25B stock-and-cash deal, with shareholders receiving $45 plus 2.2005 PANW shares per CYBR share.
The transaction is expected to close in the second half of Palo Alto’s fiscal 2026 (February–July 2026), subject to customary regulatory approvals and CyberArk shareholder consent.
Upon completion, the deal will trigger significant passive flows, with an upweight of Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) and the removal of CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR US) from relevant indices.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a trading halt ahead of a rumoured tilt from Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
No price has been made public; although local media are reporting an Offer Price of $5/share, a 32.6% premium to undisturbed.
Shares will be suspended until the 2nd September. Earlier this year, RPMGlobal transitioned to a pure-play software company after offloading its advisory division.

HEW: Policy Under Pressure

President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Cook, potentially gaining a supportive majority on the Fed, raises the risk that US policy overstimulates the economy.
Policy peers should not be pressured to mirror mistakes. The ECB faces data that keep accumulating hawkish pressures, but others are more susceptible, like the BOK.
Non-farm payroll data provide the last hope of blocking a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, a rise in EA inflation to 2.1% should help rule out another ECB rate cut.

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Aug 29

Most Read: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Shibaura Electronics, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , Carenet Inc, PointsBet Holdings , SK Inc, Robotis, XtalPi Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off
[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT
What Was It in SK Inc that Got the Local Pension Funds Loading up Hard Today?
Robotis – Rights Offering of 100 Billion Won
Xtalpi Placement: Opportunistic Raise but Thematically Hot, past Deals Did Well

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK) said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation’s largest gold mine.
A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.

Todfay after the close, EQT and Carenet Inc (2150 JP) announced an EQT SPC would launch a TOB to buy out the medical platform business.
A growthy business so the multiple looks light. But the founder and his incubation fund is selling. That’s 19%. Insiders/crossholders hold another 25%. One recent seller still has 10%.
This looks like it gets done, but it isn’t at the highs of 4+ years ago. Some retail may be upset.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold

Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”

A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo

It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146.
HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder

When EQT launched its deal for Carenet Inc (2150 JP) two weeks ago, I thought it opaque, and light, and strangely lacking in information which should be there.
It has not gotten clearer, though three days ago, the largest foreign shareholder as of the announcement reported they had lowered their position by 3.77% (4.22% of votes).
Then yesterday, someone else reported they had gone above 5%. The data implied in that filing suggests this may have legs. I’d buy through terms.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%

Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price.
True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.

CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT

Kaname Capital reported a 5.80% ownership ratio in Carenet Inc (2150 JP). Most of the shares were purchased on August 18 and 19, i.e., after the announcement of the offer.
Kaname has a recent history of agitating for a bump in the Proto Corp (4298 JP) tender offer. Kaname failed to prevent Proto from being privatised.
EQT will initially take a wait-and-see approach. If Kaname acquires a 10% stake, EQT will start to worry, but it has several options to respond.

What Was It in SK Inc that Got the Local Pension Funds Loading up Hard Today?

LG plans to cancel its remaining 3.02M treasury shares by next year, effectively wiping out all treasury stock—a clear preemptive move ahead of mandatory cancellation rules.
Local pension funds are betting SK Inc will do a partial treasury burn before Q4, front-running the 3rd Commercial Act and sending a pro-policy signal.
The SK treasury burn story offers multiple plays: holdco rerate, SK Inc momentum, and subsidiary rollover as NAV discounts tighten—definitely a multi-layered setup worth active monitoring.

Robotis – Rights Offering of 100 Billion Won

On 28 August, Robotis (108490 KS) announced a rights offering capital increase of 100 billion won.
Rights offering plan is to allocate 1,349,528 new shares (10% of outstanding shares) to existing shareholders, and then conduct a public offering for general investors once forfeited shares are issued.
The expected rights offering price is 74,100 won per share (12.8% lower than current price). We are Negative on this rights offering.

Xtalpi Placement: Opportunistic Raise but Thematically Hot, past Deals Did Well

XtalPi Holdings (2228 HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in a primary placement.
The deal is a small one in ADV terms, at 1.6 days, despite leading to a 5.7% increase in shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Aug 28

Most Read: Sanrio, Fast Retailing, SK Telecom, Shibaura Electronics, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries , PointsBet Holdings , Mixue Group, Metaplanet and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
SKT Foreign Room Play Heating up — Entry Could Come Sooner than Expected with Today’s Fine Out
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
MIXUE IPO Lockup – US$480m Cornerstone Lockup Release
Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.

SKT Foreign Room Play Heating up — Entry Could Come Sooner than Expected with Today’s Fine Out

SKT foreign room rising ahead of PIPC sanction decision today; fine confirmation could trigger ESG fund exits.
Large ESG money still in SKT; post-sanction exits could push foreign room past 25% sooner than expected — a key factor for trading setup.
Nov review momentum could hit early; post-fine, a foreign room surge toward 25% signals our entry, with the pullback setting up the SKT Nov inclusion trade.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval

A day before the close of Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s offer, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has strategically stated that it expects to receive FEFTA approval by 10 September.
Minebea had tried to convince shareholders that its lower offer provides an opportunity to monetise their shares quickly and with certainty. This line of reasoning is no longer credible.
As Minebea will not increase its offer or extend the closing date, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)‘s Board will have to recommend Yageo’s offer.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold

Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”

HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities

HHI–Mipo merger spread looks minimal, but today’s MASGA-driven pop signals momentum flows—likely to mean-revert toward appraisal rights once the theme dissipates.
Froth lifted prices past fundamentals—once it unwinds, HHI–Mipo could diverge from swap ratio, creating the spread window where traders can get paid.
This isn’t classic merger arb—it’s about fading a policy-fueled pop, riding the snapback toward appraisal baseline, with flow-driven swings creating short-term tactical arb setups.

A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo

It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146.
HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%

Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price.
True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.

MIXUE IPO Lockup – US$480m Cornerstone Lockup Release

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance