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Jul 16
0

Most Read: Perenti Global, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, DD Group, Amman Mineral Internasional, SM Investments, GMO Internet, ZEEKR, Ansys Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)
  • GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
  • [Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
  • [Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way
  • SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest
  • StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
  • US Inflation Creeps In Quietly
  • ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
  • Synopsys’ $35 Billion Acquisition of Ansys Closing: Major Index Changes Triggered

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be an ad hoc inclusion for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 22 July following Spartan Resources (SPR AU)‘s acquisition by Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). 
  • There are a couple of stocks that are trading neck and neck on average free float market cap and one of them is likely to be added to the index.
  • Both stocks have seen a big increase in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks, indicative of positioning in the stock.

GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL

By Travis Lundy

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed. 
  • The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
  • ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
  • We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
  • Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.

[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group. 
  • The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look. 
  • But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business. 

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index. 
  • That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
  • We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest

By Nicholas Tan

  • An undisclosed seller is looking to raise US$142m via selling some/all of their stake in SM Investments (SM PM).
  • The deal is a large one to digest, representing 33.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 0.7% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

By David Blennerhassett

US Inflation Creeps In Quietly

By Phil Rush

  • Rebounding headline and core US inflation in June understated the underlying growth, with shelter rising at its slowest pace since August 2021. Tariff pain crept in belatedly.
  • Commodities, less food, energy and car prices grew by 0.3% m-o-m, the fastest since Feb-23, and services (ex-shelter) hit 0.4% m-o-m, both inconsistent with the target.
  • Less than half of the post-election surge in expectations has survived so far. Further rises remain likely, even if sustained avoidance smooths and reduces the full impact.

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%. 
  • The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.  
  • The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium. 

Synopsys’ $35 Billion Acquisition of Ansys Closing: Major Index Changes Triggered

By Harry Kalfas

  • The merger between Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US) marks a major industry milestone, having overcome extended regulatory hurdles, including a delayed approval from Chinese authorities.
  • Ansys Inc (ANSS US) shareholders will receive $197 cash plus 0.3450 Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) shares per Ansys Inc (ANSS US) share, valuing the deal at about $35 billion.
  • The merger is expected to significantly impact major U.S. indexes, triggering intra-quarter replacements and substantial passive fund flows.

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Jul 15
0

Most Read: Shinyoung Securities, Perenti Global, GMO Internet, Guangzhou Automobile Group, DD Group, BYD, Azoom, NTT DC REIT, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making
  • ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)
  • GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression
  • [Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
  • BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Slowing Down in 2Q25, But Competitors Facing Cash Flow Stress
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2025)
  • NTT DC REIT IPO Trading – Decent Demand, High Yield and Discount Should Help
  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
  • Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making

By Sanghyun Park

  • The bill’s side notes clearly state that the mandatory cancellation rule applies retroactively to existing treasury shares without any exemptions.
  • If this passes the Assembly as-is, it’ll trigger a historic forced cancellation of treasury stock across ~1,660 companies—about three-quarters of the K-equities market.
  • Watch if this punchy bill clears committee and floor without cuts. Dems plan to fast-track it Sept 1, holding the majority to push it solo, aiming for year-end rollout.

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be an ad hoc inclusion for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 22 July following Spartan Resources (SPR AU)‘s acquisition by Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). 
  • There are a couple of stocks that are trading neck and neck on average free float market cap and one of them is likely to be added to the index.
  • Both stocks have seen a big increase in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks, indicative of positioning in the stock.

GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL

By Travis Lundy

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed. 
  • The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
  • ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. 

[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group. 
  • The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look. 
  • But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business. 

BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Slowing Down in 2Q25, But Competitors Facing Cash Flow Stress

By Ming Lu

  • The sales volume growth rate slowed down month by month in 2Q25.
  • The domestic sales volume was stagnant in 2Q25 and decreased YoY from March to June.
  • However, competitors expanded aggressively; therefore, we believe small ones may go bankrupt.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • At the end of July 2025, GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP) and Azoom (3496 JP) will be included in the TOPIX Index.
  • Newly-Listed company Kitazato (368A JP) will also be included in the TOPIX index at the end of this month.

NTT DC REIT IPO Trading – Decent Demand, High Yield and Discount Should Help

By Sumeet Singh

  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP), a data center REIT, raised around US$772m in its Singapore IPO.
  • The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn
  • We have looked at the past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
  • We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
  • Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

By Sanghyun Park

  • Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
  • Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
  • Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.

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Jul 14
0

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, NTT DC REIT, Shibaura Electronics, Perenti Global, Shinyoung Securities, Meituan, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Casio Computer, Zijin Mining Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • NTT DC REIT IPO: Trading Debut
  • Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy
  • ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)
  • Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making
  • Ohayo Japan | Tariff Tensions Rise, Markets Hold Steady
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression
  • Japan Activism Briefs | Casio, Nittoku
  • Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas

NTT DC REIT IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy

By Arun George

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be an ad hoc inclusion for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 22 July following Spartan Resources (SPR AU)‘s acquisition by Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). 
  • There are a couple of stocks that are trading neck and neck on average free float market cap and one of them is likely to be added to the index.
  • Both stocks have seen a big increase in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks, indicative of positioning in the stock.

Mandatory Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares: A Historic Stock Market Event in the Making

By Sanghyun Park

  • The bill’s side notes clearly state that the mandatory cancellation rule applies retroactively to existing treasury shares without any exemptions.
  • If this passes the Assembly as-is, it’ll trigger a historic forced cancellation of treasury stock across ~1,660 companies—about three-quarters of the K-equities market.
  • Watch if this punchy bill clears committee and floor without cuts. Dems plan to fast-track it Sept 1, holding the majority to push it solo, aiming for year-end rollout.

Ohayo Japan | Tariff Tensions Rise, Markets Hold Steady

By Mark Chadwick

  • US equities declined following Trump’s tariff threats; Dow fell 0.6%, S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq slipped 0.2%
  • Trump proposed 35% tariffs on Canadian imports, and on Saturday, announced 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU.
  • Ryohin Keikaku projects a net profit of ¥47 billion for the fiscal year ending August 2025, marking a ¥1.5 billion upward revision from prior guidance and a 13% increase year-on-year.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

By David Blennerhassett

  • The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)’s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
  • Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
  • Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. 

Japan Activism Briefs | Casio, Nittoku

By Mark Chadwick

  • Oasis Management disclosed a 5.2% stake, increasing pressure on Casio to improve capital efficiency and strategic clarity.
  • City Index disclosed a 5.1% stake, signalling intent to drive value at Nittoku via capital return and improved governance.
  • 3D Investment continue to add to Square Enix position. 3D and Dalton likely to target weak margins, bloated cash, and capital inefficiency – lots to work with.

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

By Rahul Jain

  • Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
  • Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
  • The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.

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Jul 13
0

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, IFBH, FWD Group Holdings, BayCurrent Consulting , Horizon Robotics, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Pop Mart International Group L, Lg Innotek, Johns Lyng and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
  • FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
  • Johns Lyng (JLG AU): PEP’s A$4/Share Offer Looks Light
  • HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
  • A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
  • Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
  • FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
  • No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
  • An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
  • There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

By Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
  • Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
  • Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): PEP’s A$4/Share Offer Looks Light

By David Blennerhassett

  • A month ago, Integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU) fielded a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Aussie fund manager Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
  • JLG and PEP have now entered into a SID at A$4/share, a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder with 17.64%, is supportive. 
  • A shareholder vote is expected to take place in October, with the transaction potentially wrapping up in November. This may need more gruel.

HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady

By Phil Rush

  • Trump kicked the tariff can a few weeks to 1 August, leaving other policymakers and markets in a wait-and-see mode. Pricing was little changed amid little news elsewhere.
  • We thematically explored the market implications of resilience rolling cuts later, how healthy the US labour market data is, and dug into the UK’s political problems.
  • Next week’s UK labour market and inflation data are critical ahead of an August BoE decision we believe remains finely balanced. US and EA inflation are other highlights.

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Jul 12
0

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, IFBH, NTT DC REIT, SK Square , Lg Innotek, Johns Lyng, EcoPro Materials, KG Mobility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
  • NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker
  • SK Square: Time to Take Profits + Why Are There Holdco Discounts in the First Place?
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
  • US Claims Continue To Cruise Calmly
  • Johns Lyng (JLG AU): PEP’s A$4/Share Offer Looks Light
  • Basis for the 5 Trillion Won Moving Money Estimate for KOSPI Size Index Migration Event
  • HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady
  • [Quiddity Index Jul25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
  • A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker

By Brian Freitas

  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
  • Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

SK Square: Time to Take Profits + Why Are There Holdco Discounts in the First Place?

By Douglas Kim

  • We are changing our View on SK Square (402340 KS) to Negative.
  • The major reason for this change is due to the surge in its share price along with lack of upside relative to its NAV.
  • Regarding SK Square, our holdco discount remains 40%. However, if there are real, positive continued efforts to improve corporate governance, this holdco discount could be reduced further.   

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
  • Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
  • Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.

US Claims Continue To Cruise Calmly

By Phil Rush

  • Rising continuing claims in recent months have been heralded as a canary warning of belated suffering in the labour market. But the problem is ending before it ever began.
  • US employment growth is still aligned with its long-run average, and the unemployment rate is unchanged on the year. Openings and quits are also steady with averages.
  • The Fed needs excess disinflation to cut, and we believe this won’t materialise. That also avoids demand and policy pressure on the BoE and ECB, helping them hold rates.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): PEP’s A$4/Share Offer Looks Light

By David Blennerhassett

  • A month ago, Integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU) fielded a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Aussie fund manager Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
  • JLG and PEP have now entered into a SID at A$4/share, a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder with 17.64%, is supportive. 
  • A shareholder vote is expected to take place in October, with the transaction potentially wrapping up in November. This may need more gruel.

Basis for the 5 Trillion Won Moving Money Estimate for KOSPI Size Index Migration Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS allocates ~6% of its 76T won consignment book to mid/small-cap, with ~3.6T effectively benchmarked to the KOSPI Mid Cap Index via its hybrid BM.
  • Publicly raised funds add ~1.1T won across 358 products benchmarked to KOSPI Mid Cap, bringing total estimated exposure (incl. NPS) to ~4.7T won.
  • Including other pensions and off-radar private funds, total KOSPI Mid Cap exposure rounds out to ~5T won — the base case local street uses for passive impact modeling.

HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady

By Phil Rush

  • Trump kicked the tariff can a few weeks to 1 August, leaving other policymakers and markets in a wait-and-see mode. Pricing was little changed amid little news elsewhere.
  • We thematically explored the market implications of resilience rolling cuts later, how healthy the US labour market data is, and dug into the UK’s political problems.
  • Next week’s UK labour market and inflation data are critical ahead of an August BoE decision we believe remains finely balanced. US and EA inflation are other highlights.

[Quiddity Index Jul25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the KRX. Here we look at Dec25 index rebal.
  • We expect up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.
  • This is up from 4 ADDs and 4 DELs last month, but there is a lot of potential sector threshold borderline volatility to change both the number and the names.

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Jul 11
0

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Kokusai Electric , Toyota Industries, SK Square , Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
  • Labour’s Collapsing Credibility
  • SK Square: Time to Take Profits + Why Are There Holdco Discounts in the First Place?
  • SK Square Placement: Clean up by Kakao
  • Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great
  • Ohayo Japan | Markets Climb as Nvidia, Bitcoin Soar

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas

Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems

By Travis Lundy

  • A new factoid about the merger between the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger of FHCs came to my notice last week.
  • There is withholding tax on a portion of the Taishin shares to be received. The last day of trading will be 11 July 2025. Expect repercussions.
  • This week will see multiple index events, combined with the risk arb events, and the WHT may affect how passive investors trade the events.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

  • After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
  • This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
  • This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

By Arun George

Labour’s Collapsing Credibility

By Phil Rush

  • Labour failed to campaign on a platform up to the UK’s structural problems, depriving it of the support to deliver change in its first year. Reform UK now lead most polls.
  • Spending cut U-turns compound the fiscal hole exposed by the slippage of optimistic assumptions, making further tax hikes and more persistent deficits seem inevitable.
  • Far-centrism has been rejected, but challenges to Labour’s right and left break its ability to triangulate back towards success. Investors may not stay so forgiving.

SK Square: Time to Take Profits + Why Are There Holdco Discounts in the First Place?

By Douglas Kim

  • We are changing our View on SK Square (402340 KS) to Negative.
  • The major reason for this change is due to the surge in its share price along with lack of upside relative to its NAV.
  • Regarding SK Square, our holdco discount remains 40%. However, if there are real, positive continued efforts to improve corporate governance, this holdco discount could be reduced further.   

SK Square Placement: Clean up by Kakao

By Nicholas Tan

  • Kakao Corp (035720 KS) is looking to raise US$316m from a clean-up sale in SK Square (402340 KS) .
  • The deal is a small one, representing 5.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 1.7% of total shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

  • As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
  • Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

Ohayo Japan | Markets Climb as Nvidia, Bitcoin Soar

By Mark Chadwick

  • S&P 500 +0.27% to 6,280; Nasdaq +0.09%; Dow +0.43% – all record highs
  • Fast Retailing net profit rose 8% to ¥339bn (Sep–May), a four-year high; quarterly OP misses on China weakness
  • Seven & i net profit jumped 2.3x to ¥49bn, boosted by Ito-Yokado asset sale, but core conbini sales declined

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Jul 10
0

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Kokusai Electric , Toyota Industries, Ikuyo Co Ltd, LOTTE Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
  • Inconsistently Dovish Pricing
  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
  • [Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
  • Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • Labour’s Collapsing Credibility
  • Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas

Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems

By Travis Lundy

  • A new factoid about the merger between the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger of FHCs came to my notice last week.
  • There is withholding tax on a portion of the Taishin shares to be received. The last day of trading will be 11 July 2025. Expect repercussions.
  • This week will see multiple index events, combined with the risk arb events, and the WHT may affect how passive investors trade the events.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

  • After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
  • This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
  • This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.

Inconsistently Dovish Pricing

By Phil Rush

  • Dovish market fears from April have unwound for the Fed, yet deepened for the BoE, despite broadly resilient data and cautious guidance from policymakers reluctant to cut.
  • Equity prices have relied on this resilience to recover, yet expectations for extended rate-cutting cycles imply it breaks. Payrolls only forced half of the gap to close.
  • We expect ongoing resilience to keep rolling market pricing for rate cuts later, with the unnecessary easing ultimately never being delivered by the BoE, Fed, or ECB.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

By Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More

By Travis Lundy

  • Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too. 
  • Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.  
  • Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.

Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s (KE) stock.
  • KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Labour’s Collapsing Credibility

By Phil Rush

  • Labour failed to campaign on a platform up to the UK’s structural problems, depriving it of the support to deliver change in its first year. Reform UK now lead most polls.
  • Spending cut U-turns compound the fiscal hole exposed by the slippage of optimistic assumptions, making further tax hikes and more persistent deficits seem inevitable.
  • Far-centrism has been rejected, but challenges to Labour’s right and left break its ability to triangulate back towards success. Investors may not stay so forgiving.

Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel

By Sanghyun Park

  • Market focus is now on retroactive impact — existing treasury holdings above 10% must be canceled within a year, flipping earlier expectations that they’d be exempt.
  • DP’s fast-tracking the bill, targeting a September vote and mid-October go-live, with this Commercial Act tweak topping their legislative priority list.
  • Excel below shows 230 stocks above the 10% treasury cap, including 35 large-caps — prime candidates for momentum trades as the mandatory buyback burn bill gains steam.

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Jul 09
0

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, NTT DC REIT, Hokkoku Financial Holdings, Renesas Electronics, Great Eastern Holdings, Samsung Electronics, Ikuyo Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change
  • NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker
  • [Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
  • Great Eastern (GE SP): OCBC Bumps Terms – $30.15/Share Exit Offer
  • [Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance – $3bn+ a Side to Trade
  • Inconsistently Dovish Pricing
  • Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer
  • Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won
  • Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory
  • [Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
  • No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
  • An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).

NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker

By Brian Freitas

  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
  • Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

[Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

By Travis Lundy

  • Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
  • The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
  • But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.

Great Eastern (GE SP): OCBC Bumps Terms – $30.15/Share Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • The prior Offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) closed on the 12th July 2024, with OCBC holding 93.62%. Shares have been suspended ever since. Compulsory acquisition was not afforded.
  • To break the deadlock, I mused in This Needs To Be Sorted: Great Eastern (GE SP)’s Protracted Suspension, that OCBC needed to come out with a improved Offer of ~S$30/share.
  • That has now unfolded. Minorities have the option of a S$30.15/share Exit Offer; or voting for the resumption of trading, which will be possible via the issuance of bonus shares.

[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance – $3bn+ a Side to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.
  • Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.
  • For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.

Inconsistently Dovish Pricing

By Phil Rush

  • Dovish market fears from April have unwound for the Fed, yet deepened for the BoE, despite broadly resilient data and cautious guidance from policymakers reluctant to cut.
  • Equity prices have relied on this resilience to recover, yet expectations for extended rate-cutting cycles imply it breaks. Payrolls only forced half of the gap to close.
  • We expect ongoing resilience to keep rolling market pricing for rate cuts later, with the unnecessary easing ultimately never being delivered by the BoE, Fed, or ECB.

Great Eastern (GE SP): SGX The Winner As Shareholders Block Exit Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After OCBC bumped terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) to $30.15/share via an Exit Offer, I wasn’t confident a 17.8% bump would dislodge Palliser. That appears the case.
  • At today’s EGM, 63.49% of minority shareholders  – OCBC abstained – were in favour on the Offer, falling short of the 75% condition. There was no blocking % condition. 
  • Shareholders voted for the resumption of shares via the issuance of shares (one-for-one bonus), satisfying the SGX free float requirement.  The SGX, and dissenters, will be happy with the outcome. 

Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. 
  • Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. 
  • The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. 

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory

By Arun George

  • The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
  • The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met. 
  • Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.

[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More

By Travis Lundy

  • Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too. 
  • Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.  
  • Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.

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Jul 08
0

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Hanwha Corporation, Pop Mart International Group L, NTT DC REIT, FWD Group Holdings, OCI Holdings , China Longyuan Power, Dah Sing Financial, Tongyang Life Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change
  • Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
  • Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)
  • NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker
  • FWD IPO Trading – Tepid Demand
  • Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs
  • Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts
  • A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
  • No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
  • An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).

Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems

By Travis Lundy

  • A new factoid about the merger between the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger of FHCs came to my notice last week.
  • There is withholding tax on a portion of the Taishin shares to be received. The last day of trading will be 11 July 2025. Expect repercussions.
  • This week will see multiple index events, combined with the risk arb events, and the WHT may affect how passive investors trade the events.

Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection

By Douglas Kim

  • Minority shareholders of Hanwha Corp preferred shares are demanding better protection (such as converting preferred shares into common shares) and are criticizing the potential delisting of its shares. 
  • We provide four major scenarios that could occur for Hanwha Corp preferred shares (000885 KS) in the coming weeks. 
  • The fact that Hanwha Group companies are on such positive momentum, it would be in the best interest for Hanwha to improve shareholder value of the Hanwha Corp’s preferred shares.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

By Brian Freitas

NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker

By Brian Freitas

  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
  • Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

FWD IPO Trading – Tepid Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, raised around US$442m in its HK IPO.
  • FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
  • Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
  • The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Last week I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts

By David Blennerhassett

A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?

By Douglas Kim

  • It has been reported that Woori Financial Group is considering on acquiring all of the remaining shares (21.2%) of Tongyang Life Insurance and delist it, making it a 100% subsidiary.
  • We believe that there is a high probability (70-80%+) that Woori Financial Group decides to acquire the remaining 21.2% stake in Tongyang Life Insurance held by minority shareholders. 
  • Between cash and stock, we think that Woori Financial is likely to use cash to complete this deal, although the exact amount of market premium remains uncertain.

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Jul 07
0

Most Read: Taishin Financial Holding, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Horizon Robotics, FWD Group Holdings, Seven & I Holdings, OCI Holdings , NTT DC REIT, Pop Mart International Group L, Shibaura Electronics, China Longyuan Power and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
  • Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change
  • FWD IPO Trading – Tepid Demand
  • Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Insignia, New World, ENN Energy, HKBN, Fengxiang
  • Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
  • NTT DC REIT IPO: Valuation Insights
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July

By Brian Freitas

Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems

By Travis Lundy

  • A new factoid about the merger between the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger of FHCs came to my notice last week.
  • There is withholding tax on a portion of the Taishin shares to be received. The last day of trading will be 11 July 2025. Expect repercussions.
  • This week will see multiple index events, combined with the risk arb events, and the WHT may affect how passive investors trade the events.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
  • No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
  • An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).

FWD IPO Trading – Tepid Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, raised around US$442m in its HK IPO.
  • FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
  • We looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Insignia, New World, ENN Energy, HKBN, Fengxiang

By Arun George

Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
  • Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
  • The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

NTT DC REIT IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) is the exclusive S-REIT vehicle sponsored by NTT Group. It has launched an SGX IPO to raise proceeds up to US$864 million.
  • I previously discussed the listing in NTT DC REIT IPO: The Investment Case. 
  • In this note, I discuss valuation. The valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive in comparison to peers’ multiples and yields. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

By Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

By David Blennerhassett

  • Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on Shibaura (6957 JP), risks are slightly higher. <¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.
  • As expected (at least by me) – I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK).
  • Re: New World Development (17 HK), this “rescue package” announcement – ~HK$88.2bn – should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025):  “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
  • Last week I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

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